Daily Macro Digest

mardi 21 novembre
US sales of existing home have rebounded after hurricanes

US: Existing home sales (Oct.): 5.48M vs 5.40M expected (prior: 5.37M revised from 5.39M)

  • A 2.1% monthly rebound in single-family houses. Inventories have decreased, and new buyers have rebounded; prices were up by 4.7% y/y on average (5.5% y/y on median prices).
  • Demand has rebounded after hurricanes. Indicators in housing remain positive, but some uncertainty exists related to the future mortgage interest rate deduction under discussion in the budgetary policy.


Switzerland: Trade balance (Oct.): 2.33 Bn CHF (prior: 2.92Bn)

  • Real exports: -1.8% m/m; real imports: -1.1% m/m.



vendredi 17 novembre
Both housing starts and building permits above expectations in the US

US: Housing starts (Oct.): 1290k vs 1190k expected (prior: 1135k revised from 1127k)

  • Building permits: 1297k vs 1250k expected (prior: 1225k revised from 1215k)
  • The fact that there were sharp increases in the Midwest and Northeast regions suggest that the beat reflected more than a post-hurricane rebound in the South.


mercredi 15 novembre
US inflation in line with expectations, solid retail sales

US: CPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • CPI y/y: 2.0% as expected (prior: 2.2%)
  • Core CPI: 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%); 1.8% y/y vs 1.7% expected (prior: 1.7%)
  • Annual headline inflation edged lower with gasoline prices dropping back as oil refineries started up again following the disruption caused by Hurricane Harvey.
  • However, the rise in core inflation suggests that underlying inflation pressures are starting to pick up again.

US: Retail sales (Oct.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 1.9% revised from 1.6%)

  • Ex auto and gasoline: 0.3% as expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)
  • The so-called retail-control group sales, which are used to calculate GDP, rose 0.3% following an upwardly revised 0.5% in September. This suggests that the underlying pace of consumer spending remains healthy, which bodes well for the holiday shopping season.

US: Empire manufacturing (Nov.): 19.4 vs 25.1 expected (prior: 30.2)

  • The headline index fell but both new orders and the gauge on the six-month general business conditions edged higher.

US: Business inventories (Sept.): 0.0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)



UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Sept.): 4.3% as expected (prior: 4.3%)

  • Jobless claims change (Oct.): +1.1k after 2.6k in September
  • The number of unemployed continued to decline for the 11th consecutive month (-59k 3m/3m), in line with the average pace of decline since the start of the year.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Sept.): 2.2% y/y vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.3% revised from 2.2%)

  • Nominal wage growth remains moderate, despite the current strength in inflation.
mardi 14 novembre
Sustained Q3 GDP growth in the Eurozone; upside pressures on PPI in the US and UK

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Oct.): 103.8 vs 104 expected (prior: 103)

  • Sentiment has slightly regained after the fall in Sept., thanks to more positive views on future economy, sales, capex and total wages.


US: PPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Prices for food and trade services have rebounded during the month; PPI was up by 2.8% y/y after 2.6% y/y.
  • Core PPI were up by 0.2%, and up by 2.3% y/y after 2.1% y/y.
  • Pressures on prices exist, but transmission to CPI seems still moderate (CPI to be published on Wednesday).
  • In this context, the Fed should hike in Dec, as it is widely expected.


UK: CPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Prices for food, electricity, gas, spare parts, recreational and education were strongly up during the month, while costs of housing and transport have eased.
  • Inflation stayed at 3% as past month, which puts pressure on the BoE to maintain a relative hawkish communication on key rate management. Nevertheless, inflation is expected to moderate in the coming quarters, given no major renewed devaluation from the currency.


UK: PPI Input prices (Oct.): 1% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)

  • Prices of fuel and materials have driven inflation up during the month; in yearly comparison, input prices have eased from 8.1% y/y past month to 4.6% y/y.


UK: PPI Output prices (Oct.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • While food and oil prices have maintained a pressure on prices over the month, output prices have eased somewhat on a yearly comparison, from 3.3% y/y past month to 2.8% y/y.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Oct.): 0.5% m/m (prior: 0.5%)

  • Import prices were up by 1.1% m/m (third month of a 1% monthly change), being up by 3.7% y/y; production prices were up by 0.2% m/m and up by 0.1% y/y.


Eurozone: GDP (Q3-17): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • As expected, growth was sustained in the Eurozone. GDP growth was strong in Germany, Spain (0.8% q/q respectively) and in other Northern and Eastern countries; growth was good, but on a slower pace in France and Italy (0.5% q/q).
  • Eurozone GDP growth has reached a 2.5% y/y pace after 2.3% y/y in Q2.


Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Sept.): -0.6 as expected (prior: 1.4)

  • As expected after the strong rebound seen in Aug., industrial activity has weakened in all major sectors; trend remains positive (3.3% y/y after 3.9% y/y past month).


Germany: GDP (Q3-17): 0.8% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Contrary to first estimate (0.5% q/q), GDP growth was also strong in Q3; net trade is estimated to have boosted the activity in Q3, while capex and consumption were also firm.
  • German GDP growth should reach 2.4% y/y in 2017, it highest pace after the rebound in 2010-2011.


Germany: Zew (Nov.): 88.8 vs 88 expected (prior: 87)

  • Sentiment among financial community has increased further, with apparently no major concern from the political situation in Germany.


Italy: GDP (Q3-17): 0.5% q/q as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

  • A rebound in activity as expected (no detail by sector available).


Spain: CPI (Oct.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inflation has been driven by prices of food and clothes over the month; prices were up by 1.7% y/y after 1.8% y/y past month.


Poland: GDP (Q3-17): 1.1% q/q vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1.1%)

  • GDP growth was up by 4.7% y/y after 4% in the prior quarter.


Brazil: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.5%)

  • Sales of personal items, food and pharma have driven the monthly change. Yearly comparison shows strong rebound from 3.6% y/y past month to 6.4% y/y in Sept.


mardi 14 novembre
Sentiment among US housebuilders improved in November, euro area inflation printed in line with expectations

US: Industrial production (Oct): 0.9% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

  • Capacity utilization: 77% vs 76.3% expected (prior: 76.4% revised from 76%)
  • Industrial production surged in October, rising 0.9% m/m, led by manufacturing production, which rose by 1.3%. The biggest monthly gain in six months, mainly reflects the return to normalcy after the disruption caused by the hurricanes in late August and early September.


US: NAHB housing market index (Nov): 70 vs 67 expected (prior: 68)

  • The NAHB reported that in their view the strong confidence indicator is consistent with the housing market continuing to grow steadily.


US: Initial jobless claims (Nov 11): 249k vs 235k expected (prior: 239k)

  • Continuing claims: 1860k vs 1900k expected (prior: 1901k revised from 1904k)


US: Philadelphia Fed. (Nov): 22.7 vs 24.6 expected (prior: 27.9)

  • The new orders component increased (+1.8pt to +21.4) while the shipments (-2.7pt to +21.7) and employment (-8.0pt to +22.6) sub-indices both pulled back but remain at encouraging levels.
  • Despite declines in both the Philly Fed and Empire State surveys this month, both continue to indicate expansion in manufacturing activity.


US: Import price index (Oct): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.7%)

  • On a y/y basis: 2.5% vs 2.4% expected (prior: 2.7%)


UK: Retail sales (Oct): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.8%)

  • On a y/y basis: -0.3% vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.2%).
  • Ex Auto Fuel: 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.7%); -0.3% y/y vs -0.4% expected (prior: 1.6%).
  • While the retail sales growth in October was better than expected, the annual numbers confirm the steady slowdown in the retail sector over the past year.


Eurozone: CPI (Oct): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.4% as expected (prior: 1.4%)
  • CPI core y/y: 0.9% as expected (prior: 0.9%)
  • Energy prices rose by 3% y/y, while services prices increased by 1.2% y/y.
  • As expected, inflation has moderated after the September rebound and we continue to expect core inflation to stay on a moderate upward trajectory supported by strengthening economic conditions.



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