Market insight

US: Durable goods orders (March): 2.6% m/m vs 2.5% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 1.3%)

• Orders have strongly rebounded over the month due to a surge in orders on defense (10.6% m/m after -13.6% m/m the prior month) and also on aircraft (30.6% m/m after 15.6% the prior month).
• Core orders, i.e. orders for capital goods non defense ex-aircraft were up modestly by 0.2% m/m after 0.4% m/m.
• Shipments were flat after 1.2% m/m prior month (core orders: 0.2% m/m after -0.6% m/m the prior month).
• Inventories: flat after 0.2% m/m; core orders: 0.1% m/m after -0.2% m/m.
• Besides defense and aircraft being up and down, traditional spending on equipment could be modest in Q1-24.

Germany: IFO (April): 89.4 vs 88.8 expected (prior: 87.9 revised from 87.8)

• Business sentiment has rebounded more than expected over the month; opinions have improved on both current situation and on expectations, pointing towards progressive exit from stagnation and to a more constructive scenario in the next quarters.
• By sector, sentiment was less negative in manufacturing, trade and construction and it has turned positive on services. This is in line with recent PMI releases, pointing towards parallel recovery in services and also in manufacturing with still a lag.

Italy: Consumer confidence (April): 95.2 vs 96.8 expected (prior: 96.5)

• Consumer sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions were modestly up about the current situation, due to less negative views on personal and economic situation.
• Opinions have decreased on future climate; consumers remained cautious about future spending.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (April): 87.6 vs 89.2 expected (prior: 88.4 revised from 88.6)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; views have decreased for both domestic and foreign orders. Opinions have also slightly declined on future production and economic outlook.

Poland: Unemployment rate (March): 5.3% as expected (prior: 5.4%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (March): 8.6% vs 8.2% expected (prior: 8.1% revised from 8%)

• Unemployment ratio (SA data) has strongly rebounded over the month.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (April): 93.2 (prior: 91.3)

• Confidence has regained thanks to higher expectations, while sentiment on current situation remained quite stable.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): 49.9 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.9)

• US Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 in April, ending a period of 3 months in expansion.
• Companies had more finished products in stock, indicating slower demand and unsold goods.
• Signs of spare capacity in supply chains remained amid relatively muted demand for inputs.
• Suppliers’ delivery times shortened for the third month running.

US: Services PMI (Apr P): 50.9 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.7)

• US Services PMI dropped in April driven by a decrease in new business as high interest rates and prices limited demand for services.
• Employment also saw a significant decline, the most since mid-2020. Excluding the start of COVID-19, service jobs were at their lowest since 2009. 
• Service providers mentioned increased staff and shipping costs, although overall cost increases were at their second-lowest in three-and-a-half years. There was also a slowdown in charge inflation.
• Composite PMI decreased from 52.1 to 52.0, below the expectations of 52.0.

US: New home sales (Mar): 693k vs 669k expected (prior: 637k revised from 662k)

• Sales of new single-family houses in the United States jumped by 8.8% compared to the previous month. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate reached 693,000, the highest in six months, bouncing back from a revised 5.1% decline in February.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Apr): -7 vs -8 expected (prior: -11)

• New orders improved (-9 vs -17), but employment dropped (-2 vs 0). Companies kept experiencing decreasing backlogs and vendor lead times, even though those indexes went up, they were still negative. There was more optimism about local business conditions (6 vs -1). Prices paid grew slower in April, while prices received increased slightly.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Apr P): 45.6 vs 46.5 expected (prior: 46.1)

• The latest data indicates a consistent decline in factory activity, although the pace of production decline has slowed down compared to a year ago, and there's been a slight improvement in job losses.
• Input prices for manufacturing are still decreasing, mainly due to better supply situations. However, the overall outlook remains grim, with new business continuing to drop rapidly, alongside dwindling order backlogs.
• The persistent weak demand for industrial goods is evident in both a significant decrease in purchased inputs and the absence of any improvement in inventory levels.

Eurozone: PMI Services (Apr P): 52.9 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.5)

• The Eurozone services sector continues to outshine manufacturing and is picking up speed.
• New orders experienced their swiftest growth since May last year, marking a second consecutive monthly increase, while employment growth hit a ten-month high.
• Cost inflation remained below earlier peaks, driven by higher wage rates, energy, and fuel costs. Service providers raised prices at a quicker rate. However, business expectations for the next 12 months signaled a decline in service sector confidence, reaching a three-month low.
• The composite reading rose to 51.4 from 50.3, surpassing expectations. The national breakdown showed accelerated growth in both two largest economies. Germany's composite reading rose to 50.5 from 47.7, while France's climbed to 49.9 from 48.2.

UK: PMI Manufacturing (Apr P): 48.7 vs 50.4 expected (prior: 50.3)

• The UK Manufacturing PMI slipped back into contraction territory at 48.7 in April, down from 50.3 the previous month, falling short of market expectations.
• Manufacturing output experienced a slight decline during this period. This was attributed to a moderate downturn in new orders, as companies observed weak market conditions exacerbated by customers' desire to reduce stock levels.
• Input costs for factories increased at the fastest rate in 14 months, driven by higher materials and transportation costs, although output charges did not rise to the same degree.
• Looking ahead, companies expressed the lowest level of optimism in a year, citing continued pressure from elevated borrowing costs.

UK: PMI Services (Apr P): 54.9 vs 53.0 expected (prior: 53.1)

• The services sector sustained its growth momentum for a sixth consecutive month, surpassing expectations.
• Companies noted an increase in business and consumer spending, buoyed by a broader economic recovery. Nevertheless, cost pressures intensified in the month, driven by rising wages, especially within the hospitality and leisure sector.
• Despite this, expectations for business activity over the next 12 months remained positive.
• Composite PMI climbed to 54.0 from 52.8, beating the expectations of 52.6.

Switzerland: M3 (March): -1.6% y/y (prior: -2.7% revised from -2.8%)

• Monetary aggregates have contracted further, but at a slower pace than prior months.
• M1 was down by 14.6% y/y after -16.6% y/y prior month; M2 was down by 10.1% y/y after -11.9% y/y the prior month.
• Time deposits remained on a strong yearly trend.

Poland: Industrial production (March): 3.6% m/m vs 7.3% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• A rebound in industrial activity but less than expected by consensus.
• Manufacturing production was up by 4% m/m and utility sectors were also on the rise.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (April): 80.5 (prior: 79.4)

• Sentiment remained cautious on past/present situation about economy, financial situation, inflation, and current purchases.
• Opinions on the future have improved about economy, financial situation, and employment.
• The confidence index was back to levels seen in the 2019-20 period.

Germany: PPI (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.4%)

• Prices for energy were flat over the month; prices of capital goods were up by 0.2% m/m (as in the prior month) but prices for non-durable goods were up by 0.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has re-accelerated from -4.1% y/y the prior month to -2.9% y/y.

UK: Retail sales (March): 0% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

• Sales stayed flat after limited rise the prior month; it seemed bad weather conditions weighed down on sales, particularly on good stores; internet sales were on the rise over the month.
• Consumers stayed cautious but confidence has improved; this moderate demand may serve the expected disinflation process over the next months.