Daily Macro Digest

lundi 24 avril
Germany: IFO index still on the rise

Germany: IFO (Apr.): 112.9 vs 112.4 expected (prior: 112.4 revised from 112.3)

  • Sentiment has continued to increase, thanks to rising opinions on current situation, while expectations have moderated.
  • By sector, sentiment has rebounded for retail, construction and wholesale trade, while it has decreased for manufacturing sector (but still at a high level).
  • A positive momentum for the German economy at the beginning of Q2, raising questions on the level of short and long term interest rates in Germany.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (Apr.): 106.3 vs 107.1 expected (prior: 106.7)

  • The picture is mixed, as sentiment on orders and activity has slightly increased, while employment and inventories have decreased.
vendredi 21 avril
Business sentiment: weakening in US, strengthening in Eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (April): 52.8 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 53.3)

  • Flash business sentiment has eroded further.
  • Momentum has weakened for business sentiment, partly related to lack of meaningful reforms.


US: Markit Services PMI (April): 52.5 vs 53.2 expected (prior: 52.8)

  • Sentiment has also eroded in the service sector.


US: Existing home sales (March): 5.71M vs 5.6M expected (prior: 5.47M revised from 5.48M)

  • Single family home sales have increased by 4.3% m/m and inventories have decreased further. Average prices of homes sold have also increased in parallel.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (April): 56.8 vs 56 expected (prior: 56.2)

  • Contrary to expectations, sentiment has increased further, particularly in France (55.1 after 53.3), while in Germany PMI was quite stable.


Eurozone: PMI Services (April): 56.2 vs 55.9 expected (prior: 56)

  • Sentiment has slightly increased; an improvement in France while sentiment has eased in Germany.


UK: Retail sales (March): -1.8% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.4%)

  • Non-food and fuel sales have sharply decreased; this points towards lower growth trend, and some risks for future elections.


Italy: Industrial orders (Feb.): 5.3% m/m (prior: -3.2%)

  • Sales were up by 2% m/m after -3.5% m/m prior month. A parallel rebound in domestic and foreign sales and orders was seen.
  • Industrial activity and sentiment are slightly better oriented, but indicators were also very volatile over past months.


Switzerland: M3 (March): 2.8% y/y (prior: 3.2% revised from 3.1%)

  • While absolute figures were quite stable from past month, the yearly comparison has moderated.
jeudi 20 avril
Philly Fed slightly weaker than expected, rising consumer confidence in the eurozone

US: Philadelphia Fed. (April): 22.0 vs 25.5 expected (prior: 32.8)

  • The index fell a bit more than expected, but remains at a level consistent with solid growth in the regional manufacturing sector.
  • While the new orders (-11.2pt to +27.4) and shipments (-9.5pt to +23.4) components both declined, they also remain at elevated levels. More encouragingly, the employment component improved for a fifth consecutive month.

US: Initial jobless claims (April 15): 244k vs 240k expected (prior: 234k)

  • The slight increase is probably due to the timing of the Easter holiday.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (April A.): -3.6 vs -4.8 expected (prior: -5.0)

  • Back to the highest level since March 2015 despite current political uncertainty.


Germany: PPI (March): 0.0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • PPI y/y: 3.1% vs 3.2% expected (prior: 3.1%)
  • Unchanged at a five-year high.
mardi 18 avril
US: slightly weaker housing starts, IP in line

US: Housing starts (Mar): 1215k vs 1250k expected (prior: 1303k revised from 1288k)

  • On a m/m basis: -6.8% vs -3% expected (prior: 5% revised from 3%)
  • Building permits: 1260k vs 1250k expected (prior: 1216k revised from 1213k); On a m/m basis: 3.6% vs 2.8% expected (prior: -6% revised from -6.2%)
  • The monthly drop was broad-based as both single-family starts and multifamily starts fell, -6.2% m/m and -7.9% m/m respectively.


US: Industrial production (Mar): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

  • Capacity utilization: 76.1% as expected (prior: 75.7% revised from 75.4%)
  • The 0.5% m/m increase was almost entirely due to a weather-related 8.6% m/m bounce back in utilities output.
jeudi 13 avril
US: strong rebound of consumer confidence and renewed low weekly claims

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Apr.): 98 vs 96.5 expected (prior: 96.9)

  • A strong rebound in sentiment on current situation, while expectations have only moderately increased.
  • Willingness to buy houses, cars and large household items has increased to high levels.
  • Inflation expectations (2.5% y/y at 1 year; 2.4% y/y at 5-10y) were stable over the month.
  • While business sentiments on the supply side have recently paused, momentum remains positive for consumers. This bodes well for consumption in Q2.


US: PPI (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Energy prices were down by 2.9% m/m, and services down by 0.1% m/m; food prices were up by 0.9% m/m.
  • PPI were up by 2.3% y/y (2.2% y/y in Feb.); core inflation was flat over the month and up by 1.6% y/y.
  • Besides volatile food and energy prices, momentum in PPI inflation has moderated.


US: Initial jobless claims (Apr. 8): 234k vs 245k expected (prior: 235k revised from 234k)

  • Continuing claims: 2028 k after 2035 k past week.
  • Back to low level of unemployed, on a weekly basis.


UK: RICS house price balance (March): 22% as expected (prior: 22% revised from 24%)

  • Sentiment was stable, but expectations on sales and prices have moderated from past month level.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (March): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Import prices were up by 3.4% y/y (due to higher oil, food and metal prices), while producer prices were only up by 0.4% y/y.


France: CPI (March): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Rebound in inflation confirmed, due to prices of clothes; prices were up by 1.4% y/y.


Germany: CPI (March): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed: the rise of prices of clothes has been more than compensated by lower food and energy prices; inflation has eased from 2.2% y/y to 1.5% y/y.


Italy: CPI (March): 1.4% y/y vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.6%)

  • Final inflation was higher than estimated, but lower than previous month. Trend in prices has moderated for food and transport costs.

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Insight 20.04.2017

Investment Outlook Q2 2017

Sustained and synchronised growth: world growth continues on a positive trajectory in Q2, driven by the positive trend in place in the US, sustained activity in Asia and a more constructive outlook for the Eurozone. Growth looks to be sustained and synchronised across the main regions, thanks to firmer activity in the manufacturing sector and a positive trend in consumption.