Daily Macro Digest

vendredi 26 mai
US: Q1 GDP revised up and stable monthly consumer confidence

US: GDP (Q1-17): 1.2% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • More positive revisions than expected, due to firmer consumption, higher investment, more positive contribution from net trade and less negative public spending; all these factors have more than compensated the fall in inventories (negative contribution from -0.9 bp to GDP to -1.07 bp).
  • Real final sales were up by 2.2% q/q after 1.6% q/q in first estimate, in line with our scenario.
  • In details, consumption was firmer on services (0.8%q/q) and less negative on durable goods (-1.4% q/q vs -2.5% q/q.
  • Regarding total investment, trend was positive for housing, revised up for R&D and structure, and was slightly revised down for capex (from 9.1% q/q to 7.2% q/q).
  • Export performances remained strong (5.8% q/q) and import growth was revised down (from 4.1% q/q to 3.8% q/q), leading to more positive contribution.
  • Despite some volatility in components, underlying trend remains positive and in line with our scenario. Volatile components, such as inventories, could rebound on Q2, leading to an above 2.5% GDP growth.


US: Durable goods orders (Apr.): -0.7% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: 2.3% revised from 0.9%)

  • Proxy for capex- orders for capital goods non defense ex aircraft, was flat.
  • Total shipments were down by 0.3% m/m and inventories up by 0.1% m/m.
  • After positive figures seen in capex in Q4 and Q1, monthly data point towards moderate growth in capital equipment expenditure in Q2.


US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (May): 97.1 vs 97.5 expected (prior: 97.7)

  • Consumer sentiment was quite stable from past month (97), and final index came lower than first estimate. Globally, expectations have slightly increased, while sentiment on current situation has moderated.
  • Sentiment on buying new items was stable on housing, and rising for autos and large items.
  • Inflation expectations have slightly increased at 1y (2.6% y/y from 2.5%y/y) and stable for medium term (2.4% y/y).


Italy: Manufacturing confidence (May): 106.9 vs 108 expected (prior: 107.7 revised from 107.9)

  • After an improvement past month, confidence has eroded in all sectors, except for retailers.
  • Within manufacturing, the outlook on production and domestic orders has eased after some improvement past month.
  • Momentum is improving but, the trend remains fragile.


Italy: Consumer confidence (May): 105.4 vs 107.3 expected (prior: 107.4 revised from 107.5)

  • Sentiment has eroded, and concerns on unemployment have slightly increased.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (May): 100.5 (prior: 99.5)

  • Sentiment has increased from past month, notably for consumers.
mercredi 24 mai
US existing home sales remain close to cycle-highs, rising consumer confidence in Germany

US: House price Index MoM (FFHA) (Mar): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • Over the past year, the national index has risen 6.2%.


US: Existing home sales (Apr): 5.57M vs 5.65M expected (prior: 5.70M revised from 5.71M)

  • On a m/m basis: -2.3% vs -1.1% expected (prior: 4.2% revised from 4.4%)
  • Home sales decreased in every region except for the Midwest.
  • Despite the slight decline, home sales remain close to cycle-highs.


Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Jun): 10.4 vs 10.2 expected (prior: 10.2)

  • Confidence remains at a high level.


Spain: PPI (Apr): 0% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: -1%)

  • On a y/y basis: 5.9% (prior: 5.8% revised from 6%)
  • Consumer good prices rose by 0.3% m/m, while capital goods and energy declined by 0.1% m/m and 0.4% m/m respectively.
mardi 23 mai
Flash manufacturing PMIs: lower in the US, stronger in the eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (May Prel.): 52.5 vs 53.0 expected (prior: 52.8)

  • The manufacturing index continued to decline, falling to its lowest level since last September (like the new orders subindex).
  • As suggested by some regional survey, momentum appears to be slowing down in the manufacturing sector, at last in some parts of the country.

US: Markit Services PMI (May Prel.): 54.0 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 53.1)

  • Highest reading since last January.

US: New home sales (April): 569k vs 610k expected (prior: 642k revised from 621k)

  • Offsetting the April weakness, new homes sales in the prior three months showed a net upward revision of 55k.
  • The lagged impact of higher mortgage rates over the last six months and constrained inventories at the start of April may also have weighed on sales activity.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (May): 1 vs 15 expected (prior: 20)

  • Underlying components mostly deteriorated, with large declines in shipments (to -2 from +25), new orders (flat from 26), and backlog of orders (-15 from +4). The employment index edged up by 1pt to +6.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (May Prel.): 57.0 vs 56.5 expected (prior: 56.7)

  • Germany: 59.4 vs 58.0 expected (prior: 58.2)
  • France:54.0 vs 55.2 expected (prior: 55.1)
  • This provides further evidence that the economic recovery gained pace in Q2.

Eurozone: PMI Services (May Prel.): 56.2 vs 56.4 expected (prior: 56.4)

  • Germany: 55.2 vs 55.5 expected (prior: 55.4)
  • France: 58.0 vs 56.7 expected (prior: 56.7)
  • The euro-zone Composite PMI (manufacturing and services) was unchanged at 56.8, its highest level since April 2011.

Germany: IFO (May): 114.6 vs 113.1 expected (prior: 113.0 revised from 112.9)

  • Expectations: 106.5 vs 105.4 expected (prior: 105.2)
  • Current assessment: 123.2 vs 121.0 (prior: 121.4)
  • Both the business climate index (the headline index) and the current situation assessment rose to the highest level on record.
  • Moreover, the business climate balance breakdown was supported by all sectors - except retail which unwound some of last month's strong gains.
  • The IFO is consistent with strong activity in the German economy in H1 17.

Germany: GDP (Q1 F.): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: %)

  • GDP y/y: 1.7% as expected (prior: 1.8%)
  • In line with the preliminary reading. Growth was mainly driven by a strong net exports contribution but domestic demand (+0.2% q/q vs +0.5% expected) and investment (up 1.7% as expected) also contributed positively.

France: Business confidence (May): 105 as expected (prior: 104)

  • Manufacturing confidence: 109 vs 108 expected (prior: 109 revised from 108)
  • This matches the level seen last February and December, which is the highest since 2011.


Switzerland: Trade balance (April): 1.97 Bn CHF vs 3.10Bn expected (prior: 3.04Bn)

  • Exports: -2.5% m/m after +1.8% (revised from 2.5%)
  • Imports: 2.6% m/m after 0.6% (revised from -1.4%)
vendredi 19 mai
Consumer confidence continued to improve in EZ

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (May): -3.3 vs -3 expected (prior: -3.6)

  • The increase left the index at its highest level since July 2007. This may have reflected improved confidence in the stability of the euro-zone following Mr Macron's victory in the French presidential election.
jeudi 18 mai
Sharp rise in the Philly Fed manufacturing survey


US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): 38.8 vs 18.5 expected (prior: 22.0)

  • The subcomponents were a bit less strong than the headline as the new orders (-2.0pt to 25.4) and employment (-2.6pt to +17.3) components edged lower.
  • Reassuring signal after the weaker Empire Fed data earlier this week.
  • The fact that the Philly Fed has been historically better correlated with the ISM than the Empire measure suggests a somewhat stronger ISM in May and continued upward momentum in the manufacturing sector.


US: Initial jobless claims (May 13): 232k vs 240k expected (prior: 236k)

  • The four-week moving average dropped 3k to 241k, just above the cycle low of 240k in late February.


UK: Retail sales (April): 2.3% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.8%)

  • Y/y: 4.0% vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.0% revised from 1.7%)
  • Much stronger than expected but the timing of Easter may have provided temporary support.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (May): 72.8 vs 70.8 expected (prior: 71.3)




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