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Global equities slipped for a second week as investors questioned whether debt-funded artificial intelligence (AI) spending can earn adequate returns. US Treasury yields fell back below 5%, while French government bond spreads reached their widest levels since the eurozone crisis. Hyperscaler earnings and a string of major policy meetings make this a decisive week, though most central banks are expected to leave their interest rates unchanged.

Oil prices are usually quoted as the future price of crude oil, with Brent and WTI being the main benchmarks. However, the economy relies on refined products such as diesel, petrol and jet fuel rather than on crude oil itself, and the cost of turning the one into the other is the refining margin, or ‘crack spread’. Adding this spread to Brent gives a proxy for what the end consumer actually pays, and on that basis the average price is currently around USD 140–180 per barrel.

Global equities fell as a sharp AI-led sell-off hit technology stocks, while surging oil prices and hotter US inflation reignited rate-hike debate ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting. Treasuries acted as a haven and the USD held firm, with the EUR weighed down by French spreads widening.

Since the US Federal Reserve’s 25 basis points September rate hike, gold has traded modestly lower to levels of around USD 4,150 per oz.

The US economy remains resilient, but rising prices and political pressure are keeping investors cautious.

Central bank doctrine recommends not reacting directly to a supply shock on the proviso that it is temporary and that inflation is not already persistently above its target. Currently, neither of these two conditions has been fulfilled. Underlying inflation, as measured by the PCE index, came in at 3.0% in August, and the US–Iran conflict has been dragging on for over six months.

With a Code of Conduct, the Swiss Single Family Office Association aims to establish common standards. At an event hosted by Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) and finews in Zurich, representatives of family offices and the financial sector discussed what the code means in practice and why the requirements placed on single family offices are increasing.

A month ago, we wrote that the outlook for equity markets remained reassuring, supported by resilient earnings, and that only a tightening of financial conditions would signal a genuine change in regime.