Daily macro update

US: Empire manufacturing (May): 19.6 vs 7.2 expected (prior: 11)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded to reach new high over the past two years.
• On current situation, opinions have improved on new orders, inventories, delivery time, while they decreased on employment.
• The 6M index has also rebounded from the prior month thanks to new orders, shipments, capex and employment.
• On prices, views on both current and future situation pointed to accelerating prices paid and selling prices.

US: Industrial production (April): 0.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.5%)

• Industrial activity has strongly rebounded over the month; manufacturing production was up by 0.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m.
• The rebound was driven by utilities (gas) and by autos, computers and electronics production.

Italy: CPI (April): 1.6% m/m vs 1.7% expected (prior: 1.6%)

• Final data came slightly lower than initial estimates. Monthly rises were due to higher energy prices and transport costs, but also to a rebound in clothes and hotel-restaurant prices.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.

Poland: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 1.1%)

• While fuel prices have declined over the month, prices have accelerated for clothes, food, housing and leisure.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y.

US: PPI (April): 1.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)

• Monthly prices surged on energy and transport costs and prior month data were revised higher.
• Energy prices were up by 7.8% m/m after 10.1% m/m prior month; services were up by 1.2% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) due to a monthly rebound in trade, transport and warehouse costs.
• Yearly trend has surged from 4.3% y/y prior month (revised up from 4.0% y/y) to 6% y/y; core PPIs were up by 5.2% y/y after 4% y/y prior month (revised up from 3.8% y/y).
• Energy and services are fueling inflation pressures and next core PCE should rise further above 3% y/y. Debate will intensify among FOMC as well as concerns about inflation while Warsh is just named as the new Fed chairman.

Eurozone: Industrial production (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)

• Activity remained contrasted at sector level; production was up by 1.1% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month) in capital goods, while being down for the second month for energy.

France: Unemployment rate (Q1-26): 8.1% vs 7.8% expected (prior: 7.9%)

• Unemployed has sharply increased over the quarter.

France: CPI (April): 1.2% m/m as expected (prior: 1.1%)

• Energy prices were up by 4.7% m/m (8.9% m/m prior month) and services up by 1.2% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) due to higher transport costs.
• Final data confirmed the yearly trend has accelerated to 2.5% y/y after 2.0% y/y prior month.

Germany: Wholesale price (April): 2% m/m (prior: 2.7%)

• Yearly trend has sharply rebounded to 6.3% y/y after 4.1% y/y prior month.

Sweden: CPI (April): -0.6% m/m as expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly fall in inflation; core inflation was down by 0.6% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month.
• Prices have increased for transport-energy, clothes and leisure but fell sharply over the month for food and housing.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.6% y/y prior month to 0.8% y/y and from 1.1% to 0% on core inflation.

Turkey: Current account (March): -9.67bn USD vs -9.70bn expected (prior: -7.32bn revised from -7.50bn)

• Trade balance has deteriorated over the month with a strong rise in imports.
• Official reserves have decreased by USD 43.4 bn after USD -10.6 bn the prior month.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (April): 95.9 vs 96.1 expected (prior: 95.8)

• Business sentiment was just slightly higher prior month but remained below consensus expectations. The index remained at quite low level, compared to 2025 level.
• Sentiment was slightly more positive on capex and inventories but weaker than prior month about future economy, sales, and total wages.
• Selling prices were on the rise.

US: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m (0.3% m/m expected) after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Inflation was mainly driven by energy and services over the month.
• Energy prices were up by 3.8% m/m after 10.9% m/m prior month; gasoline prices were up by 5.4% m/m after 21.2% m/m prior month.
• Services were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m; the monthly acceleration was mainly due to housing (shelter) costs (0.6% m/m after 0.3% m/m) and by transport (airfares up by 2.8% m/m after 2.7% m/m). Other services (audio services, delivery services, other personal services) have shown monthly acceleration.
• Food prices were up by 0.5% m/m (0% m/m the prior month); prices of beef, eggs, fresh fruits and milk products have shown some rebound over the month.
• Good prices were flat over the month; rises in apparels, education and tobacco were more than compensated by falling prices in other sectors, notably used and new cars.
• The yearly trend has accelerated from 3.3% y/y prior month to 3.8% y/y, in line with expectations; core inflation has accelerated to 2.8% y/y (2.7% y/y expected) from 2.6% y/y the prior month.
• Inflation, and particularly core inflation, will be the first concern for the Fed over the next months.

Germany: CPI (April): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.2%)

• Final data confirmed the pressure of energy upon headline inflation; energy prices were up by 4.3% m/m after 15.6% m/m the prior month and transport costs were also on the rise; separately, food prices were also sustained over the month.
• Yearly trend has modestly accelerated from 2.8% y/y to 2.9% y/y.

Germany: Zew (May): -77.8 vs -78 expected (prior: -73.7)

• Sentiment on current situation has deteriorated but expectations were less negative over the month as the related index was up from -17.2 prior month to -10.2.
• By sector, sentiment has deteriorated for retail, services, and chemical sectors, while views have improved on IT, telco, construction and electronic sectors.

Italy: Industrial production (March): 0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Despite a strong monthly rebound in industrial activity, the picture was highly contrasted at sector level.
• Production has rebounded for capital goods (2.1% m/m after 1.1% m/m prior month) and has shown regular rise in intermediate goods (0.3% this month and the prior one).
• On the opposite, production of energy was down by 1.2% m/m (-5.4% m/m prior month) and also down by 4.2% m/m for durable consumer goods (-3.7% m/m prior month).

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (April): 0.8% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

• Import prices were up by 2.3% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month); producer prices were up by 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has increased from -3.2% y/y prior month to-1% y/y on import prices, while it stayed negative (-2.4% y/y as prior month) for producer prices.

US: Existing home sales (April): 4.02M vs 4.05M expected (prior: 4.01M revised from 3.98M)

• Sales were slightly higher than the prior month, but just below consensus expectations for this month.
• Sales of single-family houses remained stable over the prior months, while sales of multi-family houses have increased over the month.
• Inventories (months of sales) have increased, notably for single-family houses over the month.
• Prices remained on a modest by rising trend; median prices were up by 0.9% y/y and prices for single-family houses have increased by 1% y/y.

Norway: CPI (April): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Monthly changes have shown increased pressures on food, clothes, leisure and insurance costs. Core inflation was up by 0.7% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.6% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y, but core inflation has accelerated from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y.