Daily macro update

US: Initial jobless claims (July 12): 221k vs 233k expected (prior: 228k revised from 227k)

• Continuing claims: 1956 k after 1954 k prior week.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (July): 15.9 vs -1 expected (prior: -4)

• Confidence has sharply rebounded over the month; opinions on current situation have improved thanks to new orders, shipments, employment and prices paid, and prices received.
• The 6-month index has also increased over the month, thanks to new orders and capex, while shipments and employment were slightly lower than the prior month; prices paid and received have also regained on the 6-month index.
• As seem in the New York Empire, business confidence has rebuilt but inflation pressures have increased in parallel.

US: Retail sales (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.9%)

• Sales were stronger than expected over the month; sales were strong in all major sectors except furniture and electronics; sales ex food, gasoline, autos and building materials were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Sales were strong for autos, up by 1.2% m/m, and for building materials and restaurants.
• The US consumers remain resilient and could be more sensitive to inflation risks next months.

US: NAHB housing market index (July): 33 as expected (prior: 32)

• Sentiment in housing has improved over the month; opinions on current and future sales have improved over the month.

US: Business inventories (May): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Inventories have slightly increased for retailers; total sales were down by 0.4% m/m.

Eurozone: CPI (June): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly rebound in prices; energy prices were up by 0.2% m/m after -1.2% m/m prior month; food prices were up by 0.1% m/m and good prices down by 0.2% m/m; services have rebounded, up by 0.7% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend was up by 2% y/y after 1.9% y/y prior month, and core inflation remained stable at 2.3% y/y.
• Inflation close to 2% is not sufficient to push the ECB to go deeply below its neutral rate.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (May): 4.7% vs 4.6% expected (prior: 4.6%)

• Claimant count remained stable at 4.5%, but jobless has increased by 25.9 k after 15.3 k prior month.
• Payrolled decreased by 41 k over the month after -25 k prior month; trend remained negative.
• The 3M-employment was up by 134 k after 89 k the previous period; within employment, self-employed has decreased while part-time jobs increased.
• Vacancies have decreased over the month and remained on a regular declining trend.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (May): 5% y/y as expected (prior: 5.4% revised from 5.3%)

• Wage growth remained on a moderation trend; nevertheless, the pace of wage growth remained sustained in construction and retail-hotel sectors.

Switzerland: Trade balance (June): 5.79 Bn CHF (prior: 4.01Bn)

• Real exports were up by 6.1% m/m after -8.1% m/m prior month; real imports were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month.

US: PPI (June): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• Prices came lower than expected, while prior month data were revised up. Core PPI was flat over the month (0.1% m/m prior month).
• Over the month, prices of goods were up by 0.3% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month), food up by 0.2% m/m (flat prior month), and services down by 0.1% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month). Falling services prices were due to declining monthly prices in warehouses (-0.9% m/m).
• Within goods, some prices were on the rise and also probably reflect higher tariffs and costs such as steel, construction, industrial and building materials, chemicals, apparels and furniture. But these specific rises were more than balanced by flat or declining prices in other sectors in the total index.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.7% to 2.3% y/y and from 2.8% to 2.5% y/y for core PPI.

US: Industrial production (June): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.2%)

• Production of autos has contracted while it was firmer for energy-utility, defence-space and machinery sectors over the month.

UK: CPI (June): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Energy prices were down by 0.2% m/m (-0.8% m/m prior month), but prices remained sustained for household goods (0.4% m/m after 1.5% m/m) and were firmer on services, up by 0.6% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month).
• Within services, prices have rebounded on travel, transport and package holidays over the month. This could reflect high seasonal demand but also rising labor costs.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.6% y/y and from 3.5% to 3.7% y/y on core inflation. The inflation picture looks challenging for the BoE which could delay any new key rates adjustments.

Italy: CPI (June): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly rise but pointed to higher yearly trend, up by 1.8% y/y after 1.7% y/y prior month.
• Prices have declined for communication and housing but accelerated for hotels-restaurants (1% m/m after 1% m/m prior month).

US: NY Empire manufacturing (July): 5.5 vs -9.2 expected (prior: -16)

• Index has passed positive, as seen past Feb. Opinions have rebounded on orders, shipments and inventories; prices paid have increased.
• The 6-month index has slightly increased, thanks to employment, capex and prices received.

US: CPI (June): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Inflation was in line with expectations and some pressures from tariffs (Asia, steel) were visible on some specific goods sectors.
• By sector, inflation was up by 0.3% m/m on food as the prior month; eggs prices continued to decline (-7.4 m/m; 27.3% y/y). Energy prices were up by 0.9% m/m after -1% m/m (-0.8% y/y), with rising fuel and gasoline prices.
• The prices for goods were up by 0.2% m/m after 0% the prior month; within this large sector, prices were strongly up for furniture, appliances and equipment, apparels, footwear products, sporting goods, and video products; these sectors have supported higher tariffs coming from Asia or due to higher steel costs; these rises were nevertheless balanced by further declines in autos (news and used cars) over the month.
• Services were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month; shelter costs were on regular rise 0.2% m/m in June and May and OER were up by 0.3% m/m as prior month. Medical care (hospital) and other personal services have accelerated over the month while airfares have declined further.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.7%y/y and core inflation from 2.8% to 2.9% y/y.
• Past rises in tariffs and potential new ones could fuel a rising inflation trend above 3% in H2-25.

Eurozone: Industrial production (May): 1.7% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -2.2% revised from -2.4%)

• A reversal in industrial activity after the large contraction seen the prior month.
• By sector, activity has regained in energy, capital good and non-durable consumer goods; on the opposite, activity on intermediate and durable consumer goods has contracted further.
• By country, Ireland has brought large volatility, with industrial activity up by 12.4% m/m after -12.5% m/m prior month, thanks to pharma products ahead of potential rise in tariffs.

Germany: Zew (July): 52.7 vs 50.4 expected (prior: 47.5)

• Expectations have strongly rebounded over the month; opinions on current situation have also improved (index from -72 the prior month to -59.5).
• Views have improved on steel, autos, pharma-chemical and were more positive in services over the month.

Spain: CPI (June): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0%)

• Inflation was firmer than initial estimates over the month; prices have decreased for clothes but accelerated for housing, transport, recreation and leisure. Core inflation was up by 0.5% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y; core inflation remained stable at 2.2% y/y.

Poland: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Final data were in line with first estimate; prices have declined over the month on clothes, housing, energy-transport, while they increased for leisure and hotels.
• Yearly trend has marginally increased from 4.0% y/y prior month to 4.1% y/y.

Sweden: CPI (June): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final data confirmed the rebound in monthly inflation; prices of transport (package holidays) were strongly up over the month as well as costs of leisure-culture. On the opposite, prices of energy, clothes and communication were down over the month.
• Yearly trend has increased from 2.3% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y and from 2.5% y/y to 3.3% y/y on core inflation.
• Inflation data could favor a wait and see strategy from the central bank before decreasing further is key rates.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (June): -0.1% m/m (prior: -0.5%)

• Import prices were down by 0.2% m/m after -1.1%; producer prices were flat over the month after -0.2% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend remained negative for import prices (-2.8% y/y after -2.9% y/y prior month) and moderately positive for producer prices (0.3% y/y after 0.4% y/y prior month).