Daily macro update

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Aug.): 100.8 vs 100.5 expected (prior: 100.3)

• Sentiment has regained regularly in small and medium-sized firms.
• While opinions remained cautious on future economy, sentiment has improved from the prior month on future sales, wages and corporate earnings.
• The index has regularly recovered from its April low, but it remained still below the peak seen past Dec. (index at 105).

France: Industrial production (July): -1.1% m/m vs -1.4% expected (prior: 3.7% revised from 3.8%)

• Industrial activity has shown a strong reversal during the month after large rebound in June.
• Manufacturing production was down by 1.7% m/m (3.5% m/m prior month), due to a reversal in transport, auto and food sectors; on the positive, activity was firmer for electricity and refining sectors over the month.
• Renewed political uncertainties will weigh down on confidence and activity over the next weeks/months.

Germany: Industrial production (July): 1.3% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -1.9%)

• Production has rebounded and prior month data were revised up.
• Production of energy was down by 4.5% m/m (-2.7% m/m prior month) and manufacturing production has rebounded by 2.2% m/m (after -0.1% m/m prior month).
• Within manufacturing, activity was driven up by capital goods (3% m/m) and consumer goods (2.1% m/m).
• Activity should progressively recover but it remains fragile and economic indicators still volatile in opposite direction.

Germany: Trade Balance (July): 14.7bn EUR vs 15.5bn expected (prior: 15.4bn revised from 14.9bn)

• Exports: -0.6% m/m after 1.1% m/m prior month; imports: -0.1% m/m after 4.1% m/m prior month.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Aug.): 22k vs 75k expected (prior: 79k revised from 73k)

• Past months data were highly revised: data were revised up for July but revised down for June (data were negative: -13 k payrolls) and for May.
• Trend has obviously deteriorated in several sectors, and data were more negative than JOLTS and ADP suggested.
• By sector, payrolls remained negative on construction (3M of contraction), and in manufacturing (4 months of negative data).
• Payrolls have decreased in services from 85 k the prior month to 63k; a still positive momentum in data was seen in payrolls in leisure-hospitality (28K), and resilient data in trade (11K); on the negative, business services (-17k; 4M of contraction) and government sector.
• Wage growth has slowed down: 3.7% y/y after 3.9% y/y prior month, while monthly change remained stable at 0.3% m/m.
• Unemployment rate was up from 4.2% to 4.3%; all alternative measures on unemployment rate have also slightly increased over the month. The impact of lower immigration on labor force seems still difficult to estimate and to recognize in these figures.
• As seen past month, trend in labor has deteriorated and the balance of risks has shifted towards major downside risks from labor, more than from rising trend in inflation. The Fed will cut key rates in Sept., and this will not be a pre-emptive cut, but a cut justified by a below breakeven trend in payrolls.

Germany: Factory orders (July): -2.9% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -1%)

• Factory orders have contracted further over the month, but prior month data have been revised up.
• Orders for consumer goods have rebounded, thanks to autos; orders for intermediate and capital goods sectors have decreased over the month.

Norway: Industrial production (July): 0.4% m/m (prior: -0.1%)

• Manufacturing production was flat over the month after -0.1% m/m.
• Production was up for food, ships/oil platforms and electricity; on the opposite, production was down for mining, chemical and pharma sectors.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Aug.): -39.9 vs -36.5 expected (prior: -32.8)

• Consumer confidence has sharply deteriorated, driven by falling economic outlook over the month.
• Opinions were stable on financial situation and remained positively oriented for future purchases.

UK: Retail sales (July): 0.6% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.9%)

• Sales were strong but data for the prior month were revised down. H1 series in H1 were also revised down on consumption.
• Sales were firm for clothes, household goods and internet sales.

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 30): 237k vs 230k expected (prior: 229k)

• Continuing claims: 1940 k after 1944 k the prior week.

US: ADP Employment change (Aug.): 54k vs 68k expected (prior: 106k revised from 106k)

• A significant slowdown in labor is mentioned by these data; the largest fall is seen in employment in large firms. A marked slowdown in employment is seen in both goods and services sectors for the month under review.
• These data, even still positive, argue even more than the JOLTS survey in favor of a next Fed rate cut.

US: Services PMI (Aug.): 54.5 vs 55.4 expected (prior: 55.7)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month (final data lower than first estimate), but the index remained high, pointing to a still expanding activity in the sector.
• Views remained positive on future business and employment has increased over the month. Momentum remained positive on domestic demand but not on new exports still on a downward trend.
• Prices and costs remained under upward pressures.

US: ISM Services (Aug.): 52 vs 51 expected (prior: 50.1)

• Confidence in services has rebounded over the month; sources of improvement are close to the factors identified in PMI index: better oriented activity, new orders and employment. New export orders came slightly lower.
• Views over prices paid have slightly decreased but the related index remained at a high level compared to past 6 months.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-25): 3.3% q/q vs 2.7% expected (prior: -1.8%)

• As activity has been revised up on Q2, productivity came higher than in first estimate and it offered a large rebound from Q1-25.
• Higher activity and higher hours worked have fuelled strong total incomes growth (up by 4.3%q) but at a slower pace than in Q1-25 (up by 5%q).
• Labor costs came lower: 1%q after 6.9% in Q1(1.6%q in first Q2 estimate).
• The challenge will be to maintain such a high trend in productivity.

US: Trade balance (July): -78.3 bn USD vs -77.9 bn expected (prior: -59.1 bn revised from -60.2 bn)

• Ex oil, the trade deficit has increased from USD 64.3 bn prior month to USD 83.3 bn.
• Exports were up by 0.3% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month); only exports of autos were sustained (2.7% m/m after 1.6% m/m prior month).
• Imports have rebounded, up by 5.6% m/m (-3.6% m/m prior month); the rebound was strong and broad based across sectors; the largest rebound in imports was seen in industrial supplies, as seen past Jan., due to inventory rebuilding.
• Trade figures do not argue in favor of rising tariffs to reduce a deficit.

Eurozone: Retail sales (July): -0.5% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.3%)

• Sales of non-food items were up by 0.2% m/m after 0.6% m/m while other sectors (food, energy) were down.

Sweden: CPI (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to lower monthly inflation (core inflation down by 0.5% m/m); no details by sector were available.
• Yearly trend has accelerated for headline inflation, up to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% y/y the prior month; core inflation has declined from 3.2% y/y to 2.9%.

Switzerland: CPI (Aug.): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0%)

• Prices were down for food, household goods, health and transport-energy; while they rebounded for clothes and education over the month.
• By main sector, prices were flat on goods (-0.4% m/m prior month), down by 0.2% m/m on services (0.2% m/m prior month) and down for energy prices (-0.5% m/m); core inflation was down by 0.1% m/m, as seen the prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 0.2% y/y on headline and at 0.8% y/y after 1.0% y/y prior month for core inflation; while services were up by 1.2% y/y (1.4% y/y prior month), goods (-1.6% y/y) and energy (-7.7% y/y) remained main contributors to disinflation.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Aug.): 2.9% as expected (prior: 2.9%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month; it is probably to see the impact from rising US tariffs, but we noted unemployed has increased in some specific districts.