Daily macro update

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (June): 2.10% y/y vs 1.80% expected (prior: 1.65% revised from 1.63%)

• Prices rose 0.24% m/m after 0.18% in the prior month. Across the 20 major cities, half posted declines both on the month and on the year.
• The spectrum of price changes remained large on the yearly trend, from -6.4% y/y in Las Vegas to +6.2% y/y in Chicago.

 

US: New home sales (Jul): 607k vs 620k expected (prior: 678k revised from 628k)

• Sales of new homes sank by 10.5% in July, as elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Aug): 89.4 vs 90.2 expected (prior: 90.2 revised from 90.8)

• US consumer confidence fell in August, as dearer gasoline continued to squeeze households’ expectations for the cost of living. Respondents also turned more downbeat about the outlook for the jobs market.
• The expectations index (six-months ahead) slipped to 68.7 from 74.7, defying forecasts for a broadly steady reading. The survey, conducted from August 3rd to 16th, coincided with average pump prices holding above $4 a gallon, as renewed tensions pushed energy costs higher.

 

France: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 86 vs 87 expected (prior: 86)

• Consumer sentiment remained broadly stable over the month, but details pointed towards renewed worries.
• Views were less negative on inflation, but worries returned about the economy, future purchases, and unemployment.
• Preference for savings has increased again after some easing the prior month.

 

Germany: IFO (Aug.): 88.8 vs 87.2 expected (prior: 86.7 revised from 86.6)

• Business confidence has rebounded on both current situation (index at 88.5 after 86.5 prior month) and expectations (index at 89.1 after 86.8).
• The improvement was broad-based across sectors and was driven by less negative views on both manufacturing and services over the month. Thus, the IFO looks more positive than PMI index; PMI services fell over the month, while manufacturing PMI rebounded.

 

Germany: GDP (Q2-26): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Growth was better than expected in the second estimate.
• Growth was driven by a strong export performance while capex declined over the quarter and public and private consumption was just up by 0.1% q/q.

 

Spain: PPI (July): 3% m/m (prior: 0%)

• Energy prices were up by 9% m/m and up by 20% y/y.
• Annual rate has accelerated from 7% y/y the prior month to 9.2% y/y.

 

Poland: Unemployment rate (July): 5.8% vs 5.9% expected (prior: 5.8%)

• The number of unemployed people increased slightly but the unemployment rate remained stable.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 53.2 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 53.9)

• Flash estimates have pointed to some consolidation in business confidence over the month; production has slightly increased, but some moderation was seen in new orders and constraints have increased due to longer delivery.
• Employment has slightly increased while selling prices have moderated.

 

US: Services PMI (Aug.): 56.8 vs 54 expected (prior: 54.6)

• First estimates for confidence in services have strongly accelerated over the month.
• Opinions have rebounded on new orders and employment has increased.
• Selling prices were on the rise but at moderate pace.
• Thanks to services, the composite PMI has accelerated further from 54.5 to 56.

 

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Aug.): -14 vs -18 expected (prior: -17)

• Consumer confidence was less negative over the month; opinions have relatively improved about personal financial situation, economic outlook and future purchases.
• The index was again back to pre-covid levels.

 

UK: Retail sales (July): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 1%)

• Sales were down in all sectors, including internet sales, except food over the month, after sustained purchases the prior month.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 51.5 as expected (prior: 51.9)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased over the month, but the index remained above 50 in this flash estimate.
• New orders have decreased from 52.3 prior month to 51. Situation in the Middle East remained a source of concerns.
• Costs and prices remained on the rise.

 

UK: Services PMI (Aug.): 52.8 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 52.1)

• Flash estimates have pointed to a larger than expected rebound in confidence in services; demand has increased from firms and consumers, and new orders index has increased to 51.3 after 50.8 prior month.
• Employment remained under constraints and pressures on prices have increased further.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 52.8 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Flash estimate pointed to another rebound in confidence, driven by higher new orders. Activity was firmer and exports have increased for the first time since many months. Production has rebounded driven by Germany.
• Employment has marginally increased over the month; costs have shown a modest increase.

 

Eurozone: Services PMI (Aug.): 51.7 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.7)

• The index remained quite stable in the flash estimate; activity and exports were better oriented over the month, but new orders index has marginally decreased over the month.
• Employment has increased over the month and prices remained on the rise.
• Preliminary data have pointed to falling index in France (from 49.6 prior month to 48.4) and in Germany (from 49.8 to 48.5), leaving peripherals driving the trend.

 

France: Business confidence (Aug.): 98 as expected (prior: 97)

• Business confidence has rebounded over the month, driven by higher confidence in manufacturing sector (103 after 101).
• Views on own production and exports were more positive; prices remained on rising trend.
• In parallel, index for services has increased from 99 to 100 over the month.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (July): 8.6% vs 8.8% expected (prior: 8.9%)

• Unemployed has decreased after a strong rebound in June.

 

Switzerland: M3 (July): 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.6%)

• M1 growth has slowed down from 8.3% y/y prior month to 6.4% y/y, and M2 from 5.7% to 4.2% y/y.
• Time deposits and time savings have decreased over the month.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Aug.): -15.5 vs -16 expected (prior: -15.9)

• Preliminary data for consumer confidence has pointed to less negative situation from the prior month (no details offered); nevertheless, the index remained at low level.

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 90.8 (prior: 89.8)

• Consumer confidence has improved on financial situation, economic outlook and purchases.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 102.4 (prior: 101.2)

• Business confidence has improved about production, new orders, exports and also employment over the month.

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug 15): 206k vs 210k expected (prior: 212k revised from 209k)

• Jobless claims remained subdued in the week to August 15th, suggesting that the recent softness in headline payrolls may be overstated and that the labour market remains resilient, giving the Fed little reason to worry about employment risks.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Aug): 47.4 vs 24.8 expected (prior: 41.4)

• The regional manufacturing survey jumped in August to its highest reading since April 2021, buoyed by a strong employment component. Even so, the series is notoriously volatile, making firm conclusions hard to draw.

 

Germany: PPI (Jul): 1.1% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Producer prices picked up pace in July, pushing the annual rate to 3.0%, the fourth consecutive month of gains.
• The advance was driven chiefly by intermediate goods, up 5.4% from 5.1% in June, as metals and related inputs surged, particularly precious metals, copper, and semi-finished copper.
• Energy costs also reaccelerated, rising 3.8% after 0.4% in June, buoyed by petroleum, naphtha, heating oil, motor fuels, and natural gas. Declines in electricity prices provided only a partial offset.

UK: CPI (Jul): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• UK inflation ticked up as expected. Ofgem’s energy price-cap reset outweighed easing in services and food.
• Services inflation, the largest component, slipped from 3.6% to 3.4% y/y, in line with the Bank of England’s projections.
• Yet core services inflation, which excludes volatile, indexed and regulated categories, rose from 3.6% to 3.8%, propelled by a rebound in hospital services after an unusually weak July 2025.
• Core CPI was unchanged at 2.6%, rather than the anticipated dip to 2.5%.
• The message is that the last mile of disinflation remains sticky; however, a softer labour market should limit spillovers from energy into services, bolstering the case for the BoE to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year.