Daily macro update

US: Factory orders (April): -3.7% m/m vs -3.2% expected (prior: 3.4% revised from 4.3%)

• Orders by sectors were highly volatile over the past months; orders have decreased for aircrafts but increased for defense sector and metals over the month.
• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were down by 1.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
• Shipments were down by 0.3% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month) and inventories down by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (April): 7391k vs 7100k expected (prior: 7200k revised from 7192k)

• Jobs openings have rebounded from the prior month, pointing to still sustained demand for labor from firms.
• Openings were strong for several sectors, which saw a reversal after a moderation over the past two months. Openings were more sustained for trade-transport, business services, education and health, but were lower for leisure sector.
• Hirings were also more sustained over the month for the same sectors mentioned above and also for leisure.
• Separations have increased, notably for business services and leisure while quitters have decreased in all major sectors.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (May): 1.9% y/y vs 2% expected (prior: 2.2%)

• Inflation first estimate has passed below the 2%, thanks to declining energy prices and services over the month.
• Energy prices were down by 1.2% m/m after -2.3% m/m prior month and down by a strong 3.6% y/y.
• Services were down by 0.1% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month) and declined from 4% y/y to 3.2% y/y.
• Good prices were up by 0.1% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month) and remained on a stable yearly trend as past months (0.6% y/y).
• Food prices remained sustained, up by 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m, and up by 3.3% y/y. Core inflation was flat over the month and declined to 2.3% y/y from 2.7% y/y.
• These good results on inflation may validate the next Thursday decline in ECB rates, but a debate should reopen within the ECB if it is necessary to go below the 2% neutral rate.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (April): 6.2% as expected (prior: 6.3% revised from 6.2%)

• Trend remained positive in labor and unemployed has decreased further over the month.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (April): 5.9% vs 6.1% expected (prior: 6.1% revised from 6%)

• Unemployed has decreased further over the month.

 

Switzerland: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Food prices remained sustained, up by 1.5% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month), but other prices were modest: good prices up by 0.2% m/m (as seen prior month) and services up by 0.1% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month).
• Energy prices were sharply down by 1.3% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month; imported goods were flat over the month. Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m as seen the prior month.
• Yearly trend has passed in negative territory, being down by 0.2% after 0% y/y the prior month. Energy prices (-8.3% y/y), good prices (-1.9% y/y) and imported goods (-2.4% y/y) were responsible for the decline in inflation. Core inflation has declined from 0.8% y/y prior month to 0.6% y/y.
• This should motivate SNB to decline further its key rates to 0% next meeting.

 

Turkey: CPI (May): 1.53% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: 3%)

• Monthly inflation has moderated from the prior month, but pace remained sustained.
• Prices remained sustained for clothes and housing, and were also strong in transport, education and leisure sectors.
• Yearly trend has declined from 37.86% y/y prior month to 35.41% y/y, and core inflation from 37.12% y/y to 35.37% y/y.

US: Manufacturing PMI (May): 52 vs 52.3 expected (prior: 50.2)

• Final PMI has rebounded from the prior month, thanks to the pause on tariffs, but slightly less than expected.
• Opinions have increased on orders and employment over the month.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (May): 48.5 vs 49.5 expected (prior: 48.7)

• Business sentiment remained depressed over the month, contrary to PMI manufacturing which is more small firms oriented.
• Opinions have only marginally increased over the month on production, orders and employment but remained depressed on exports; inventories have decreased, as well as a marginal decline in prices paid.
• Large and export firms remained worried by uncertainties about trade, tariffs and potential retaliation from partners.

 

US: Construction spending (April): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.5%)

• Residential construction has fallen further (-0.9% m/m after -1.1% m/m the prior month).

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (May): 49.4 as expected (prior: 49)

• Final data have confirmed the modest rebound in business sentiment over the month thanks to the pause on tariffs and firmer global demand in advance of rising tariffs.
• PMI index has increased from the prior month for France and Spain but slightly decreased for Italy and marginally in Germany; index remained just below the 50 level except for Greece and Spain.
• Production has benefited from firmer demand ahead of tariffs and a stabilization in demand, as well on exports. Firms have reduced inventories and stabilized their employment.
• Input costs have decreased and enable output prices to ease.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (May): 47.1 vs 50.2 expected (prior: 50.2)

• Business sentiment has decreased below 50, due to lower sentiment on both production and new orders.

 

Norway: PMI (May): 51.2 (prior: 46.2 revised from 46.1)

• Sentiment has rebounded, and the index was above the 50 level, thanks to improving new orders.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (May): 53.6 (prior: 54.2)

• Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month, but the index remained well above the 50 level.
• The details offered a mixed picture; sentiment has regained on production and employment form the prior month while it decreased on orders. Among all major components, only exports related index has passed below the 50 level.

 

Switzerland: GDP (Q1-25): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

• Growth was more sustained than expected in Q1 thanks to larger contribution form net exports while domestic demand has slowed down from Q4-24.

 

Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (May): 42.1 vs 48 expected (prior: 45.8)

• Business sentiment has collapsed over the month with fears from trade and tariffs.
• Opinions have sharply declined on orders and decreased on production and employment. Price paid were on the rise.
• Services PMI has increased from 52.4 to 56.3 over the month. Details offered a mix picture as opinions have increased on activity and new orders but decreased on employment; prices in services were on the rise.

 

UK: PMI Manufacturing (May): 46.4 vs 45.1 expected (prior: 45.1)

• Business sentiment has marginally increased thanks to firmer new orders but both related indices remained below the 50 level.
• Sentiment has decreased on production and exports; input costs have decreased while final prices remained on the rise.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (May): 0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Prices have rebounded over the month; yearly trend has slightly increased from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.5% y/y.

 

UK: M4 (April): 3.2% y/y (prior: 3.4%)

• M4 lending has marginally increased from 2% y/y prior month to 2.1% y/y.
• Credit to consumers has increased for consumption and decreased on housing (numbers of mortgage approvals have decreased from 63.6 k to 60.4 k over the month).
• Credit to firms has rebounded for small firms but decreased for large firms.

 

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (May): 49.4 (prior: 50.3)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month and the index passed below the 50 level. Sentiment has declined on production and new orders over the month.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (May): 47.2 (prior: 47.3)

• Business confidence has marginally decreased over the month; sentiment on new orders and production has decreased over the month as demand has weakened.
• Costs remained on the rise.

 

US: Personal income (April): 0.8% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)

• Wage growth remained on a regular and sustained monthly rise, up by 0.5% m/m.
• Disposable income was up by a strong 0.8% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month; the strong rise partly came from higher transfers from social spending. Real disposable income was also up by 0.7% m/m.

 

US: Personal spending (April): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• A moderate rise was seen in purchases after strong data prior month; sales have contracted for durable goods (-0.28% m/m after 3.7% m/m) and eased in services (0.39% m/m after 0.61% m/m prior month).
• Saving ratio has rebounded from 4.3% prior month to 4.9%.
• These data pointed towards further slowdown in consumption in Q2-25.

 

US: Core PCE deflator (April): 0.11% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.09%)

• Core PCE rise remained limited over the month; prices have moderated for services (0.09% m/m after 0.24% m/m prior month), declined for food (-0.3% m/m after 0.5% m/m), while they were up for energy (0.5% m/m after -2.7% m/m).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.66% y/y prior month to 2.52% y/y.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (April): 0% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Inventories have decreased in the retail sector and for the auto segment.

 

US: Chicago PMI (May): 40.5 vs 45 expected (prior: 44.6)

• Business sentiment has sharply declined on new orders, production and inventories; prices paid were also on moderation over the month.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (May): 52.2 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 50.8)

• Final consumer confidence has improved from the first estimate, but consumers remained cautious.
• Views on current conditions (index at 58.9) have less declined from the prior month (59.8) than in the first estimate (57.6).
• Expectations have rebounded from 47.3 to 47.9, instead of the decline seen in first estimate (46.5).
• A new low point has been avoided thank to pause on tariffs, but consumers remain globally cautious: ongoing worries about financial conditions and still cautious on future business and employment.
• Willingness to buy cars and houses has marginally increased from the prior month.
• Opinions on inflation have also improved from the first estimates: inflation at 12M settled at 6.6% after 6.5% prior month (vs 7.3% in first estimate); expectations at 5-10y have declined to 4.2% from 4.4% (4.6% in first estimate).

 

Switzerland: KOF (May): 98.5 vs 98.4 expected (prior: 97.1)

• Business confidence has slightly increased from the prior month, but index remained at mix level on historic terms.
• While downside pressures remain on demand and exports, their relative situation has stabilized from the prior month.
• Demand for intermediary goods (steel) remained negatively oriented over the current months.

 

Eurozone: M3 (April): 3.9% y/y vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.7% revised from 3.6%)

• Monetary aggregates remain on a rising trend; M1 was up by 4.7% y/y after 3.9% y/y prior month and M2 up by 3.4% y/y after 3.1% y/y.
• Credit to the private sector was up by 2.3% y/y after 2.2% y/y the prior month. Credit to firms (2.6% y/y) looked more dynamic than credit for consumers (1.6%y/y); within these two categories, credit for consumption and credit up to 1year for firms offered the strongest rise over one year.

 

Germany: Retail sales (April): -1.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from -0.2%)

• Sales remained highly volatile on a monthly basis, and prior month data were strongly revised up.
• Over the month, sales of clothes and food have contracted while those of furniture and pharma products were positive.
• The yearly trend (real terms) remained positive, up by 2.3% y/y.

 

Italy: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Preliminary data have shown limited rise in inflation as expected over the month.
• The yearly trend has declined from 2.0% y/y prior month to 1.9% y/y.

 

Italy: GDP (Q1-25): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Second estimate has confirmed the rebound in activity; investment and exports were strong in Q1, and consumption has shown a regular quarterly rise (0.2% q/q) as seen in Q4-24.

 

Spain: CPI (May): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Preliminary data have shown a lower-than-expected inflation over the month (no details yet available).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.2% y/y prior month to 1.9% y/y.

 

Poland: CPI (May): -0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Preliminary data have shown a decline in monthly inflation, due to falling energy prices (-3.7% m/m after -1.7% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.3% y/y to 4.1% y/y.

 

Germany: CPI (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Preliminary data were slightly above expectations over the month, despite falling energy and food prices.
• Yearly trend has marginally decreased from 2.2% y/y prior month to 2.1% y/y.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (May): 2.1% (prior: 2%)

 

Sweden: GDP (Q1-25): -0.2% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.8%)

• GDP has surprisingly contracted in Q1, and Q4-24 growth data were revised lower.
• The contraction was due to falling consumption and to a sharp decline in investment related to construction; net exports were a support to growth while public spending was also positive.
• GDP growth in 2025 should remain in a 1-1.5% range after 1% in 2024.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (April): 8.6% vs 7.9% expected (prior: 8%)

• Unemployed has sharply increased over the month.

 

Turkey: GDP (Q1-25): 1% q/q vs 1.2% expected (prior: 1.7%)

• Activity has slowed down in Q1; consumption has contracted after strong growth in Q4-24, and total investment was also negative; the support came from export and public spending in Q1-25.
• 2025 GDP growth is expected slightly above 3% y/y after 2.8% in 2024.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (May): -9 as expected (prior: -13)

• Business sentiment has regained after the announced pause on tariffs.
• Views on current situation were less negative than prior month on shipments, orders but firms remained cautious on local business conditions. Prices paid have stabilized (5.35% y/y).
• The 6-month views have improved and turned positive; views were less negative on orders and employment but remained cautious on future capex.

 

France: Consumer spending (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1%)

• Sales were strong for food, clothes and autos, but declined sharply on energy, which weigh down on total sales.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (May): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed has increased by 34 k over the month after 6 k the prior month.
• Vacancies continued to decline in parallel.

 

Norway: Retail sales (April): 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Trend in purchases of goods has improved over the past months.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (April): 0.9% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.3%)

• Trend in sales has improved over the prior month and stayed positive.