Daily macro update

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 29): 191k vs 220k expected (prior: 218k revised from 216k)

• Continuing claims: 1939 k after 1943 k prior week.

US: Factory orders (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.4%)

• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month.
• Total shipments were flat after -0.3% m/m prior month; inventories were down by 0.1% m/m.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Oct.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%)

• Sales of food and fuel were up by 0.3% m/m, while sales in other sectors were down by 0.2% m/m after being flat the prior month.

Sweden: CPI (Nov.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a decline in monthly and yearly trend.
• Core inflation was estimated being down by 0.6% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month. No details by sector are available in preliminary data.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y and from 2.8% to 2.4% y/y for core inflation.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Nov.): 3% as expected (prior: 3%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month but the ratio remained stable.

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 49.7 vs 48.9 expected (prior: 48.2)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded from the prior month, but the index remained just below the 50 level.
• The improvement was broad-based as all major components have regained (production, orders, and employment); this improvement is probably related to the deal on tariffs with the US.
• Separately, PMI services index has decreased from 47.8 prior month to 45.3; the decrease was broad-based, except for employment and prices.

Brazil: GDP (Q3-25): 0.1% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Growth has slowed down in Q3 as consumption was up by 0.1%q after 0.6% q in Q2; other components were more positive: a strong support from public consumption (1.3%q), a rebound in investment (0.9%q) and net trade contribution was positive than to strong exports.

US: ADP Employment Change (Nov.) -32k vs. 10k expected (prior: 47k, revised from 42k)

• Jobs have significantly contracted after the rebound in October, pointing to a fragile labor market.
• Jobs have contracted by 120k for small firms (-10k the prior month); jobs rebounded for medium-sized firms (51k after -21k in October) and have decreased for large firms (39k after 73k the prior month).
• Jobs have contracted in both the goods and services sectors over the month.
• Wage growth has slowed: 4.4% for job-stayers (4.5% the prior month) and 6.3% for job-changers (6.7% the prior month).
• For the Fed, the balance of risks could point towards a deteriorating labor market, justifying the expected rate cut next week.

US: Industrial Production (Sept.) 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.3%, revised from 0.1%)

• Manufacturing production was flat over the month after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Production was more sustained over the month for utilities and computer-electronics but decreased for autos and machinery.

US: ISM Services (Nov): 52.6 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 52.4)

• US services activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in November, reaching a nine-month high, supported by improved business activity (54.4 vs 54.3) and employment (48.9 vs 48.2).
• Prices for services and materials grew at their slowest rate in seven months (65.4 vs 70.0), signaling some relief from inflationary pressures.
• New orders declined (52.9 vs 56.2), and supplier delivery times lengthened, likely due to air traffic disruptions caused by the government shutdown and customs delays related to changing tariffs.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Nov.) 53.6 vs. 53.1 expected (prior: 53)

• Momentum remained positive in services, as revealed by the final confidence index.
• The index rebounded in France (from 48 the prior month to 51.4) and in Italy (from 54 to 55), but it weakened in Germany (from 54.6 to 53.1) and Spain (from 56.6 to 55.6).
• Demand was firm over the month, and employment was more positive. Input inflation was moderate despite rising costs.

Eurozone: PPI (Oct.) 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Except for prices of non-durable goods, prices in other sectors were up by 0.1% m/m.
• The yearly trend declined from -0.2% y/y the prior month to -0.5% y/y.

Switzerland: CPI (Nov.) -0.2% m/m vs. -0.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Goods prices were down by 0.3% m/m after -0.2% m/m the prior month; services were down by 0.2% m/m after -0.3% m/m.
• Over the month, prices fell in many sectors: food, clothes, transport, leisure, and restaurants. Energy prices rose over the month.
• Core inflation was down by 0.1% (-0.2% m/m the prior month), and imported goods prices were down by 0.4% m/m (-0.5% m/m the prior month).
• The yearly trend was flat (0.1% y/y the prior month), and core inflation was up by 0.4% y/y (0.5% y/y the prior month).

UK: Services PMI (Nov.) 51.3 vs. 50.5 expected (prior: 52.3)

• Final data confirmed a decline over the month, but the pace was less pronounced. Opinions deteriorated on domestic demand (ahead of changes in the Autumn budget), and exports remained weak.
• Employment deteriorated; costs continued to rise (payrolls, raw materials), while selling prices did not change significantly, putting downward pressure on margins.

Turkey: CPI (Nov.) 0.87% m/m vs. 1.35% expected (prior: 2.55%)

• Monthly inflation moderated from the prior month; however, monthly increases were sustained in some sectors: alcohol, housing, transport, and leisure.
• The yearly trend declined from 32.87% y/y the prior month to 31.07% y/y, and from 32.05% y/y to 31.65% y/y for core inflation.

Turkey: PPI (Nov.) 0.84% m/m (prior: 1.63%)

• The yearly trend increased slightly from 27% y/y the prior month to 27.23% y/y.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.4% vs 6.3% expected (prior: 6.4% revised from 6.3%)

• With slightly upward revisions to prior month data, unemployment ratio remained unchanged over the month.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Nov.): 2.2% y/y vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Preliminary data for prices were down by 0.3% m/m as expected and core inflation down by 0.5% m/m over the month.
• Prices of goods (-0.1% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month) and services (-0.8% m/m after 0.1% m/m) were responsible for the monthly contraction in prices, while energy prices have rebounded, up by 0.9% m/m and food remained on a stable monthly rise (up by 0.2% m/m).
• Yearly trend has increased for headline inflation and services (3.5% y/y after 3.4% y/y prior month); trend was less favorable on energy prices (-0.5% y/y after -0.9% y/y prior month); food prices remained on a stable trend by 2.5% y/y as well as good prices up by 0.6% y/y.

Italy: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.0% vs 6.1% expected (prior: 6.2% revised from 6.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month (-59 k).

Italy: PPI (Oct.): -0.4% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

• Yearly trend has declined to 0.2% y/y after 1.5% y/y prior month.

UK: Nationwide house prices (Nov.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)

• Prices have slightly increased despite uncertainties from budget and rises in taxes on properties.
• Yearly trend was up by 1.8% y/y after 2.4% y/y prior month.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 52.2 vs 51.9 expected (prior: 52.5)

• Final PMI was slightly higher than in first estimate. Production was more sustained, driven by domestic demand over the month but inventories have strongly increased over the month; export demand remained weak.
• Employment has regained on firmer activity; costs were on the rise due to tariffs but passthrough to final client was moderate.

US: ISM Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.2 vs 49 expected (prior: 48.7)

• Business sentiment (index more representative of large and export firms) has marginally decreased from the prior month.
• The detailed picture was mixed: higher opinions on production, inventories and prices paid, but lower opinions on new orders, export orders and employment.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 49.6 vs 49.7 expected (prior: 50)

• Final business sentiment came lower than expected in first estimate.
• Sentiment index has passed below the 50 level, driven lower by France (47.8) and Germany (48.2); sentiment has decreased in Spain, but the index remained above 50 (at 51.5) and it has regained in Italy (at 50.6).
• Opinions have decreased on new orders, inventories and employment, in parallel with lower new orders and export orders over the month; while input costs have increased again, selling prices have decreased.
• Sentiment is mixed as core countries (France and Germany) still faced different headwinds.

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 49.1 vs 49 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Business opinions have slightly increased over the month, but index remained below 50. Sentiment on new orders have slightly decreased.

Poland: GDP (Q3-25): 0.9% q/q (prior: 0.8%)

• GDP remained on sustained growth thanks to private and public consumption and to a sharp rebound in capex (up by 3.5%q after -0.8%q in Q2).

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 54.6 vs 55.1 expected (prior: 55.0 revised from 55.1)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased over the month; details were mixed as views decreased on production but regained on domestic orders.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 50.2 as expected (prior: 49.7)

• Business sentiment has regained from the prior month, as expected in first estimate, with firmer new orders (index at 50).
• Production has improved over the month on firmer domestic demand while exports remained weak; sentiment has also decreased on inventories and employment; selling prices have decreased for the first time.

UK: M4 (Oct.): 3.5% y/y (prior: 3.7% revised from 3.6%)

• M4 lending was up by 4.3% y/y after 3.6% y/y prior month. Loans to corporate have slightly increased over the month.
• Net lending to consumer sector has slightly decreased over the month; mortgage approvals remained quite stable at 65 k after 65.6 k the prior month.

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.8 (prior: 48.2)

• Business sentiment has increased from the prior month, but the index remained below 50; opinions have decreased on new orders but regained on employment.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48 (prior: 46.5)

• Business sentiment has regained over the month; opinions have increased on new orders and related index remained below 50.

Turkey: GDP (Q3-25): 1.1% q/q vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.6%)

• Growth was more sustained than expected in Q4; domestic demand has rebounded thanks to firmer consumption (both private and public) and a rebound in capex. Inventories were a drag on growth in Q3-25.