Daily macro update
US PPI in line with expectations, but core PPI still on a firm trend
US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.9): 217k vs 220k expected (prior: 221k)
- Continuing claims: 1873 k after 1884 k the prior week.
US: PPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)
- Inflation at producer level was in line with expectations; prices of goods were up by 0.1 % m/m (0.2% m/m the prior month), energy down by 0.3% m/m (-2.8% m/m prior month) and services up by 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).
- Within services, costs of transport-warehousing were up by 0.5% m/m after 0% prior month.
- Core PPI were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
- Future core PCE should come close to 0.25-0.30% m/m, and the yearly trend may rebound above 2.8% y/y after 2.65% y/y in Sept.
- Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 1.9% y/y to 2.4% y/y and for core PPI from 3.3% y/y to 3.5% y/y.
Eurozone: Industrial production (Sept.): -2% m/m vs -1.4% expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.8%)
- Production has fallen in energy and capital goods, a reversal from the prior month. Production of consumer goods was positive.
Spain: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Final data have confirmed the monthly rebound in inflation; prices of clothes, housing and education have sharply accelerated over the month; core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m after -0.4% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated for headline inflation from 1.7% y/y the prior month to 1.8% y/y and, for core inflation, from 2.4% y/y to 2.5% y/y.
Poland: GDP (Q3-24): -0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1.5%)
- Preliminary data have surprised on the downside; no details are available, but it seemed domestic demand has contracted during the quarter.
Sweden: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Final data confirmed the estimates; prices were higher over the month for transport, health, and culture sectors.
- Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 1.1% y/y the prior month to 1.5%, and from 2.0 % to 2.1% y/y for core inflation.
UK: RICS house price balance (Oct.): 16% vs 11% expected (prior: 11%)
- Balance of opinions have increased over the month; the improvement was driven by expectations of higher sales and prices.
US inflation in line with expectations
US: CPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Core inflation remained stable and in line with expectations, up by 0.3% m/m.
- As expected, no major progress has been made on the inflation front, while sub-sectors continued to show high monthly volatility.
- Energy prices were flat (-1.9% m/m prior month) but this came from a combination of lower oil prices and higher monthly electricity prices.
- Prices of good were flat over the month, but prices of furniture and used cars have rebounded over the month.
- Total services remained on a 0.4% m/m monthly trend; housing and shelter came higher than prior month, and transport-airfares and recreations prices have also rebounded.
- Yearly trend has increased from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.6% y/y on headline inflation and remained stable on core inflation (3.3% y/y). Some positive base effects would help to decline core inflation further in Q1-25, but progress to disinflation will be more limited next year; upside risks will be refuelled in case of renewed major budgetary supports.
France: Unemployment rate (Q3-24): 7.4% as expected (prior: 7.3%)
- Unemployed has increased by 35 k over the quarter after -42 k the prior quarter; trend has turned negative as several job destructions were seen.
US Business sentiment has improved in small- mid sized firms; stick wage growth in the UK
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Oct.): 93.7 vs 92 expected (prior: 91.5)
- Sentiment has improved over the month, despite uncertainty has increased.
- Views were more positive on future capex and less negative on future sales. This sector could be positively impacted by reforms and lower regulation promised by the Republican platform.
- The index has rebounded to its highest level over the mini period of mid-2022/2023.
Germany: Zew (Nov.): 7.4 vs 13.2 expected (prior: 13.1)
- Expectations have declined after some improvement the prior month.
- Sentiment on current situation has decreased over the month; by sector, views have deteriorated after some improvement for steel, mechanicals, chemicals, pharma and auto sectors.
Germany: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Final data have confirmed the monthly rebound in prices; prices of food and energy-transport have reaccelerated and prices for clothes and other services remained sustained during the month. Prices of energy were down by 3% y/y while those of services were up by 3.9% y/y (Bundesbank data sources).
- Headline inflation has accelerated to 2.4% y/y after 1.8% y/y the prior month.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Sept.): 4.3% vs 4.1% expected (prior: 4.0%)
- Claimant count remained stable at 4%.
- Jobless claims have increased by 26.7K over the month from 10.1 k the prior month.
- Payrolls have decreased by 5 k in Oct, after -9 k the prior month; employment (3M average) has increased by 220 k after 373 k the previous period.
- Labour is normalizing slowly in terms of payrolls.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Sept.): 4.3% y/y vs 3.9% expected (prior: 3.9% revised from 3.8%)
- Wage growth has re-accelerated over the month in all major sectors.
- Wages in services were up by 4.1% y/y after 3.6% y/y the prior month; they were up from 4.5% to 4.9% in hotels-restaurants and from 4.7% to 5.4% y/y in construction. In the manufacturing sector, wage growth has declined from 6.2% y/y to 5.8% y/y.
- Wage growth remained to high relative to BoE's expectations, pointing towards no rush in cutting key rates.
Brazil: Retail sales (Sept.): 1.8% m/m vs 2.3% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.8%)
- Sales have rebounded for fuel, autos, and pharma products but decreased for clothes, furniture, and communication.
Turkey: Current account (Sept.): 2.99bn USD vs 2.8bn expected (prior: 4.85bn revised from 4.32bn)
- Current account surplus has decreased over the month but remained largely positive; trade deficit of goods has increased but surplus from services (tourism) has more than balanced the trade in goods situation.
- Despite inflows of capital, official reserves have declined over the month (USD 719 M).
Norway: inflation on lower trend despite sustained monthly rise
Norway: CPI (Oct.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Inflation has turned highly volatile over the month; prices have rebounded for food, housing, and communication sectors. Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has declined from 3% y/y prior month to 2.6% y/y and on core inflation from 3.1% y/y to 2.7% y/y.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 8.6% (prior: 8.6% revised from 8.5%)
- Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.
Turkey: Industrial production (Sept.): 1.6% m/m (prior: -1.6%)
- Production was under contraction the prior month and activity has rebounded for mining and manufacturing sectors but stayed under contraction in energy.
US consumer confidence on the rise (preliminary Nov. Michigan index)
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov.): 73 vs 71 expected (prior: 70.5)
- Preliminary consumer confidence has rebounded over the prior month; while sentiment in current conditions has decreased, expectations have strongly increased from the prior month (index at 78.5 after 74.1).
- Sentiment on current situation has decreased on lower incomes and higher prices. Expectations have increased on higher incomes, business outlook and employment.
- Willingness to buy remained stable from the prior month on housing and increased on cars.
- 12 Month inflation has slightly increased from 2.6% to 2.7%. The 5-10Y inflation expectations have increased from 3.0% y/y to 3.1% y/y.
Italy: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.1%)
- Industrial activity has contracted as expected over the month; production has rebounded in capital and intermediate goods, while it has decreased in consumer goods, reversing prior month improvement.
Sweden: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.3% m/m (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)
- Sales have decreased for furniture and restaurant-hotels.
Sweden: Industrial production (Sept.): 1.1% m/m (prior: 2.0% revised from 1.6%)
- Production in industry was up by 1.2% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month; service activity was up by 0.3% m/m after 1.8% m/m prior month.
- Separately, orders in industry were down by 3.6% m/m after 4.3% m/m prior month.
Brazil: CPI (Oct): 0.56% m/m vs 0.54% expected (prior: 0.44%)
- Inflation (IPCA index) has regained over the month, driven by re-accelerating prices for food, housing, followed by sustained prices for clothes, household goods and communication.
- 4 sectors remained with inflation trend above 6% y/y: food, housing, health care and education.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 4.42% y/y the prior month to 4.76% y/y.