Daily macro update

US: Initial jobless claims (July 4): 215k vs 217k expected (prior: 217k revised from 215k)

• Unemployment applications remain low, indicating a solid labor market.
• Continuing claims: 1814 k after 1806 prior week.

US: Existing home sales (Jun): 4.09M vs 4.20M expected (prior: 4.19M revised from 4.17M)

• Sales of previously owned US homes fell 2.4% in June, as high mortgage rates kept buyers on the sidelines.

Germany: Trade Balance (May): 19.1bn EUR vs 14.8bn expected (prior: 14.7bn revised from 14.5bn)

• Trade surplus has rebounded as imports have declined over the month.
• Exports were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.8% m/m the prior month; imports were down by 2.5% m/m after 1.1% m/m the prior month.
• It is interesting to note that exports have rebounded towards China and the US; imports from the US have also strongly rebounded over the month.

UK: RICS house price balance (June): -33% vs -30% expected (prior: -35% revised from -35%)

• The balance of opinion improved over the month, becoming less negative, with gains driven by house sales and new instructions.
• Despite this monthly improvement, the index remained at depressed level.

US: Wholesale inventories (May): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Final data pointed to more modest rise in inventories. Those for computers remained on the rise while they declined for autos.
• Sales were up by 3.4% m/m after 2.2% m/m the prior month; sales were sustained for all sector, and particularly computers, while they were relatively more modest for autos.

Sweden: CPI (June): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to lower prices for food, clothes and moderately energy. Core inflation was still up by 0.6% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.5% y/y the prior month to 1.3% y/y and core inflation from 0.5% y/y to 0.4% y/y.

Sweden: Industrial production (May): 0.6% m/m (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.7%)

• Activity in industry was up by 0.2% m/m (4.2% m/m prior month) and services up by 1% m/m (0.5% m/m the prior month).
• Proxy for GDP was up by 0.9% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month.

US: Trade balance (May): -77.6 bn USD vs -78.4 bn expected (prior: -54.6 bn revised from -55.9 bn)

• Imports: +3.3% m/m vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.0%)
• Exports: -3.2% vs -3.5% expected (prior: 3.0% revised from 2.6%)
• As a result of higher imports and lower exports, the US trade deficit widened in May to the most since March 2025 even though oil exports continued to increase.

Germany: Industrial production (May): 0.9% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)

• IP y/y: 0.0% vs -0.6% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.5%)
• Production between March and May rose by 0.1% despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The automotive industry led the way in May with production up 3.6% m/m while manufacturing of industrial machinery rose 1.3%.
• The German industry continues to suffer from high energy prices and the fierce Chinese competition in several key export markets; in terms of volume, production in May was 8% below the monthly average for 2021.

US: ISM Services (Jun): 54.0 as expected (prior: 54.5)

• Services confidence eased but stayed in expansion while prices paid dipped, mirroring cheaper oil. New orders and activity downshifted, pointing to steadier, still solid, demand.
• Hiring surged at the fastest pace since 2024, likely a World Cup boost, while inventories thinned to their second-lowest since October 2025, a sign the early-year buy‑ahead spree is fading.

Eurozone: PPI (May): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)

• Producer prices rose as expected, but the annual rate quickened to 5.9% from 5.0%, nudging past the 5.7% consensus.
• The upward push came from intermediate goods, up 1.4% on the month, while energy prices fell 1.0%, tempering the overall gain.

Eurozone: Retail sales (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.4%)

• Retail sales rebounded from last month reflecting a 0.4% rise in non-fuel sales while fuel sales dropped by 0.5%.

Germany: Factory orders (May): 1.9% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: -3.2% revised from -3.8%)

• Germany’s factory orders bounced back in May, led by transport equipment, especially military kit, likely tied to the country’s armed-forces upgrade.
• Stripping out bulky one-off deals, orders still rose a solid 1% on the month, according to Destatis.
• The smoother three-month measure tells a split story. Overall orders in March-May declined 0.2%; exclude large-scale contracts, and they were up a robust 4.1%.