Daily macro update

Germany: CPI (Nov. Prel.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• CPI y/y 2.6% vs 2.4% expected (prior: 2.3%)
• Inflation unexpectedly rose to the highest level in 9 months, which was probably driven by package holidays and rising fuel costs.
• This should not prevent inflation from falling below 2% next year.

Germany: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

• Y/y: 1.3% vs 0.1% expected (prior: 3.4% revised from 2.8%)
• An unexpected dip in October, but this data is notoriously volatile.

Germany: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• The number of unemployed people rose by 1k vs 4.5k expected.

France: CPI (Nov. Prel.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• CPI y/y: 0.8% vs 1.0% expected (prior: 0.8%)
• Inflation surprised to the downside, helped by a slowdown in prices in the service sector. Manufacturing prices also contributed negatively.

France: Consumer spending (Oct.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Y/y: 0.4% vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

Italy: CPI (Nov. Prel.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• CPI y/y: 1.1% vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.3%)
• Core inflation edged down to 1.8% from 1.9%.

Spain: CPI (Nov. Prel.): 0.0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• CPI y/y: 3.1% vs 3.0% expected (prior: 3.2%)
• Lower electricity prices explain the slight decline in November's inflation.

Switzerland: GDP (Q3): -0.5% q/q vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• GDP y/y: 0.5% vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.2%)
• The final GDP release confirmed the flash estimate, but the details are less negative than the headline suggests.
• The decline was largely driven by falling pharma exports and therefore not related to the 39% US tariffs, but is due to the strong front-loading ahead of potential tariffs.
• Other negative contributions were contracting government consumption (-0.2% q/q), equipment/software (-0.1% q/q) and construction investment (-0.2% q/q). Reassuringly, private consumption economy expanded at a solid 0.4% q/q.
• The recent trade agreement between Switzerland and the US to reduce tariffs to 15% removes downside risks from the growth outlook.

Switzerland: KOF (Nov.): 101.7 vs 101.0 expected (prior: 101.5 revised from 101.3)

• The Swiss economy's leading indicator has held steady this year despite the political turbulence surrounding tariffs.

Eurozone: M3 (Oct.): 2.8% y/y as expected (prior: 2.8%)

• M1 was up by 5.2% y/y (5.0% y/y prior month); M2 was up by 2.9% y/y (2.7% y/y prior month).
• Credit to the private sector was up by 2.9% y/y after 2.7% y/y the prior month.

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Nov.): -9.3 vs -8.3 expected (prior: -8.5 revised from -8.2)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions have declined on production, new orders, exports and employment; selling prices were on the rise from the prior month.

Eurozone: Services confidence (Nov.): 5.7 vs 4.4 expected (prior: 4.2 revised from 4.0)

• Sentiment has rebounded further in services; views were more positive about past activity, future demand and selling prices were on the rise.
• Views on employment remained stable over the month.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Nov.): -14.2 as expected (prior: -14.2)

• Sentiment remained stable over the month. Views were negative on present and future financial situation; opinions were less negative on global activity; opinions remained cautious on future purchases.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Dec.): -23.2 vs -23.5 expected (prior: -24.1)

• Views were less negative over the month; opinions were negative the prior month on inflation and income.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 95 vs 97.6 expected (prior: 97.6)

• Sentiment has decreased form the prior month due to lower opinions on economy and personal financial situation.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Nov.): 89.6 vs 88.2 expected (prior: 88.4 revised from 88.3)

• Sentiment has decreased on manufacturing and construction sectors while it has increased on services.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 96.1 (prior: 96.8)

• Sentiment has decreased due to concerns on personal situation while views on macro remained constructive.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Nov.): 100.9 (prior: 100.4 revised from 100.2)

• Business confidence has slightly increased in manufacturing and construction sectors.

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 22): 216k vs 225k expected (prior: 222k revised from 220k)

• Continuing claims (Nov. 15): 1960k vs 1963k expected (prior: 1974k, revised from 1953k)
• Despite the recent increase in the number of jobs cut announcements by large companies, applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell to the lowest since mid-April.
• However, the upward trend in continuing claims suggests that it has become more difficult to find a new job.

US: Durable goods orders (Sept. Prel.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 3.0% revised from 2.9%)

• Ex transportation: 0.6% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)
• Business investment remained on a positive trend in September. Core orders (non-defense capital goods ex aircraft rose 0.9% m/m, same as in August (upwardly revised).
• The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, with its tax incentives, is likely to provide a boost to capital expenditures in the coming quarters.

US: Chicago PMI (Nov.): 36.3 vs 43.6 expected (prior: 43.8)

• The index fell in November to the lowest level since May 2024 (and not far from all-time lows), with only 2 components on the rise.

US: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Sales have slowed down from the prior month and data were mixed at sector level.
• Purchases were sustained for furniture, building materials, health, gasoline, easing services. On the opposite, sales were down for autos, electronics, clothes and sport goods.
• Core sales (ex-food, gasoline, building materials and autos) were down by 0.1% m/m after sustained sales over the prior three months.
• Despite slower momentum in Sept., consumption should remain sustained in Q3-25.

US: PPI (Sept.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Prices have accelerated over the month on food, goods and energy price prices; while services were flat over the month.
• Yearly trend was stable (after 0.1 pp upward revisions to prior month yearly change) at 2.7 %y/y and at 2.9% y/y for core PPIs. Pressures on good prices remained at year end.

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Sept.): 1.36% y/y vs 1.4% expected (prior: 1.57% revised from 1.58%)

• Prices were up by 0.13% m/m (0.10% m/m expected) after 0.12% m/m prior month.
• Over 20 cities, 7 cities offered still positive trend in prices but only 4 cities offered a rise equal or higher than 4% y/y.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Nov.): -15 vs -5 expected (prior: -4)

• Opinions on current business have deteriorated due to lower shipments and orders but views were less negative on capex, employment and were positive on wages.
• The 6-month index was in strong rebound (index at 25 after 13 prior month) on higher new orders, backlog of orders and business conditions; but opinions were less positive on employment and wages.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Nov.): 88.7 vs 93.3 expected (prior: 95.5 revised from 94.6)

• Consumer sentiment has deteriorated on both current conditions (index at 126.9 after 131.2 prior month) and expectations (index at 63.2 after 71.8).
• Labor conditions are seen as more difficult, and opinions have decreased on labor.
• Future economic conditions are also expected to deteriorate. Plan to buy autos and houses has decreased from the prior month.
• 12 M inflation expectations remained at stable at 5.7% (average measure) but the median of expectations has increased from 4.6%y/y prior month to 4.8%y/y.

US: Pending home sales (Oct.): 1.9% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

• Sales have rebounded in 3 districts over the month but decreased on the fourth district (West).

France: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 89 vs 90 expected (prior: 90)

• Consumer confidence has slightly decreased from the prior month.
• Details offered mixed picture: decreasing confidence on financial situation and future purchases but less worries on unemployment.

Germany: GDP (Q3-25): 0% q/q as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Data remained in line with first estimates but offered details by sector; public consumption has supported activity while consumption has contracted.
• Private consumption was down by 0.3% q, but public spending was up by 0.8% q;
• Investment was up by 0.3%q (-1.1% in Q2) thanks to equipment spending while construction has contracted further.
• Exports were down by 0.7% and imports flat in Q3-25.
• Separately productivity in Q3-25 was done by 0.2%q (0.2% in Q2) and unit labor costs up by 1%q (1.4% in Q2).

Spain: PPI (Oct.): 0.5% m/m (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.4%)

• Energy prices were up by 1.6% m/m driven by the rebound in PPIs.
• Yearly trend has re-accelerated to 0.7% y/y after 0.2% y/y prior month.

Poland: Retail sales (Oct.): 6.7% m/m vs 5.0% expected (prior: -2.7%)

• Sales have regained after two months of fall; the rebound was broad-based across sectors but leaders in the rebound were autos, food, and clothes over the month.