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Since the US Federal Reserve’s 25 basis points September rate hike, gold has traded modestly lower to levels of around USD 4,150 per oz.

Central bank doctrine recommends not reacting directly to a supply shock on the proviso that it is temporary and that inflation is not already persistently above its target. Currently, neither of these two conditions has been fulfilled. Underlying inflation, as measured by the PCE index, came in at 3.0% in August, and the US–Iran conflict has been dragging on for over six months.

In 2026, the five hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle) will spend around USD 820 billion in capex, compared with USD 750 billion in operating cash flows. This means that their investments are exceeding available cash flows and that this funding gap has to be financed through debt.

The markets are looking to the future, whilst central banks are looking to the past.

In an environment marked by the return of inflationary tensions, the rise of AI, and the reshaping of geopolitics, Michaël Lok believes that markets are entering a new cycle.

Short-term gold forecasts have been revised downward, reflecting the repricing of Federal Reserve expectations and the rise in short- and long-term interest rates observed in recent weeks.

Events in the Middle East have highlighted a profound shift in market dynamics. The very nature of volatility appears to be changing, requiring management strategies to adapt.

The Swiss franc is once again confirming its status as a major reserve currency, one that is particularly significant at a time when instability in the Middle East is causing major turbulence in global geopolitics. However, the franc’s secular strength has a downside.

With another US regime change operation under way in Iran shortly after the more limited, successful January operation in Venezuela, questions are once again being asked.

In recent decades, emerging market debt has undergone a remarkable transformation. Tune in to our podcast to uncover why this dynamic asset class deserves your attention, and which segments our experts favour.

Electricity demand is growing after years of stagnation, driven by electrification, reindustrialisation, and artificial intelligence, which are outpacing infrastructure expansion.