Structuring for every need

Major central banks mostly held their interest rates steady last week, with the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) preferring to wait and see what happens. Global equities edged lower as the technology sell-off extended into a third week, with investors focussing on the gap between artificial intelligence (AI) spending and free cash flow. Bonds gained on lower yields, while gold traded lower on modest positioning adjustments and its sensitivity to equity markets.

Global equities slipped for a second week as investors questioned whether debt-funded artificial intelligence (AI) spending can earn adequate returns. US Treasury yields fell back below 5%, while French government bond spreads reached their widest levels since the eurozone crisis. Hyperscaler earnings and a string of major policy meetings make this a decisive week, though most central banks are expected to leave their interest rates unchanged.

Oil prices are usually quoted as the future price of crude oil, with Brent and WTI being the main benchmarks. However, the economy relies on refined products such as diesel, petrol and jet fuel rather than on crude oil itself, and the cost of turning the one into the other is the refining margin, or ‘crack spread’. Adding this spread to Brent gives a proxy for what the end consumer actually pays, and on that basis the average price is currently around USD 140–180 per barrel.

Global equities fell as a sharp AI-led sell-off hit technology stocks, while surging oil prices and hotter US inflation reignited rate-hike debate ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting. Treasuries acted as a haven and the USD held firm, with the EUR weighed down by French spreads widening.

The seventh edition of Building Bridges, Switzerland’s largest sustainable finance conference, brought together 2,600 participants in Geneva from 6–8 October – an increase of 25% compared with last year – with thousands more joining online. A sponsor since the conference’s inaugural edition in 2019, UBP continues to support its mission of fostering constructive dialogue on sustainable finance and strengthening collaboration between the financial sector and the wider economy.

Since the US Federal Reserve’s 25 basis points September rate hike, gold has traded modestly lower to levels of around USD 4,150 per oz.

The US economy remains resilient, but rising prices and political pressure are keeping investors cautious.

Central bank doctrine recommends not reacting directly to a supply shock on the proviso that it is temporary and that inflation is not already persistently above its target. Currently, neither of these two conditions has been fulfilled. Underlying inflation, as measured by the PCE index, came in at 3.0% in August, and the US–Iran conflict has been dragging on for over six months.

A month ago, we wrote that the outlook for equity markets remained reassuring, supported by resilient earnings, and that only a tightening of financial conditions would signal a genuine change in regime.