Insights

Oil prices are usually quoted as the future price of crude oil, with Brent and WTI being the main benchmarks. However, the economy relies on refined products such as diesel, petrol and jet fuel rather than on crude oil itself, and the cost of turning the one into the other is the refining margin, or ‘crack spread’. Adding this spread to Brent gives a proxy for what the end consumer actually pays, and on that basis the average price is currently around USD 140–180 per barrel.

Global equities fell as a sharp AI-led sell-off hit technology stocks, while surging oil prices and hotter US inflation reignited rate-hike debate ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting. Treasuries acted as a haven and the USD held firm, with the EUR weighed down by French spreads widening.

Since the US Federal Reserve’s 25 basis points September rate hike, gold has traded modestly lower to levels of around USD 4,150 per oz.

The US economy remains resilient, but rising prices and political pressure are keeping investors cautious.

Central bank doctrine recommends not reacting directly to a supply shock on the proviso that it is temporary and that inflation is not already persistently above its target. Currently, neither of these two conditions has been fulfilled. Underlying inflation, as measured by the PCE index, came in at 3.0% in August, and the US–Iran conflict has been dragging on for over six months.

A month ago, we wrote that the outlook for equity markets remained reassuring, supported by resilient earnings, and that only a tightening of financial conditions would signal a genuine change in regime.

Global equities fell as a sharp AI-led sell-off hit technology stocks, while surging oil prices and hotter US inflation reignited rate-hike debate ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting. Treasuries acted as a haven and the USD held firm, with the EUR weighed down by French spreads widening.

The US economy remains resilient, but rising prices and political pressure are keeping investors cautious.

A month ago, we wrote that the outlook for equity markets remained reassuring, supported by resilient earnings, and that only a tightening of financial conditions would signal a genuine change in regime.

The AI boom has pushed the world’s five hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle) into a new era of financing. In 2026, their capital spending is expected to exceed operating cash flow, with investment projected to reach USD 5.6 trillion by 2030, raising fundamental questions about how this unprecedented expansion will be funded.

US President Trump’s approval rating is among the lowest for a sitting president in post-World War II US history and leaves an 80% probability that the US House of Representatives will shift to Democratic control, with US Senate facing a 50:50 chance of switching to Democratic control.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been the GCC’s biggest geopolitical shock in decades – but not a credit crisis.

Oil prices are usually quoted as the future price of crude oil, with Brent and WTI being the main benchmarks. However, the economy relies on refined products such as diesel, petrol and jet fuel rather than on crude oil itself, and the cost of turning the one into the other is the refining margin, or ‘crack spread’. Adding this spread to Brent gives a proxy for what the end consumer actually pays, and on that basis the average price is currently around USD 140–180 per barrel.

Since the US Federal Reserve’s 25 basis points September rate hike, gold has traded modestly lower to levels of around USD 4,150 per oz.

Central bank doctrine recommends not reacting directly to a supply shock on the proviso that it is temporary and that inflation is not already persistently above its target. Currently, neither of these two conditions has been fulfilled. Underlying inflation, as measured by the PCE index, came in at 3.0% in August, and the US–Iran conflict has been dragging on for over six months.