UBP House View - December 2025

The Federal Reserve cut its key rates by 25 basis points to 3.25 - 3.75% last week, and surprised observers with the resumption of purchases of short-term Treasuries. The Fed also raised its 2026 growth forecasts to 2.3%. However, we maintain our current scenario of several Fed rate cuts in 2026.

On the equities markets, valuation concerns have resurfaced for AI-related companies, even as the Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment outlook remains robust, while risk appetite expends to cyclical equities. Such dynamics underscore the need for diversification and selectivity as we enter 2026.

Global equities closed the first week of December in positive territory, supported by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut, while the bond market experienced rate volatility. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve, which is expected to deliver a 25-bp interest rate cut on Wednesday. A still-supportive backdrop continues to underpin equities, with fiscal stimulus measures, easing monetary policy and structural growth drivers encouraging investors to keep a broader perspective.

The last week of November ended strongly, following a period of market uncertainty. As December gets under way, seasonal patterns point to a firm year-end finish. However, attention is now turning to next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market expectations became markedly more dovish in the final week of November amid growing concerns about the labour market; investors are now pricing in a 25-bp rate cut in December.

Despite Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected results and upbeat guidance, investor sentiment remained fragile. A mixture of fatigue and doubts about AI, shifting expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December, and a rise in long-term Japanese yields fuelled sharp swings across equity markets. This week, investors will closely monitor the continuing Russia–Ukraine discussions for signs of an end to the conflict.

Doubts over a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and concerns over the scale and timing of AI-related capex weighed on sentiment, underscoring the fragile market landscape. Now that the US government’s 43-day shutdown has ended, investors are awaiting the delayed September non-farm payrolls report this week. The publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting and Nvidia’s earning report, both on Wednesday, will be also closely scrutinised.

In the US, stronger corporate investment, resilient household spending, and the prospect of monetary easing led us to upgrade our outlook on US growth for 2026. This improved economic momentum reinforces our high-yield bond conviction of 4/5 and reaffirms our positive stance on US equities of 4/5.

Scepticism and fatigue surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), coupled with the ongoing US government shutdown and mounting concerns about the labour market, weighed on investor sentiment. The global technology sector declined, despite a steady stream of upbeat news related to AI. As the earnings season draws to a close, markets are now looking for supportive macroeconomic signals to restore confidence.

The Fed's 25-bp rate cut, paired with Powell's cautious tone on further rate reductions, led to mixed market reactions. Despite this, strong earnings, particularly in the tech sector, supported equities, while bond yields rose. The USD strengthened amid JPY weakness, and gold consolidated at around USD 4,000. With the eurozone showing modest growth and US consumer confidence declining, investors are focused on another heavy week of earnings and key data releases for further direction.

Resilient macro data, softer inflation and strong corporate earnings have helped global markets recover, with equities reaching new highs and bonds extending gains. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts supported sentiment, while the USD strengthened amid JPY weakness and gold consolidation. However, with valuations near cycle peaks and policy uncertainty still looming, investors remain focused on upcoming central bank meetings for direction.