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Resumo macroeconómico diário

Quarta-feira 29 Março
A rebound in US pending home sales; some improvement in German consumer confidence and a quite stable index in France

US: Pending home sales (Feb.): 0.8% m/m vs -3% expected (prior: 8.1%)

  • Sales have continued to recover for the third month; sales were up over the month for 3 districts over 4.
  • Housing sector seemed to test some stabilization after lower long term interest rates but tighter credit standards, resulting from stress in banks, could bring new weakness in future construction over the next months.

UK: M4 (Feb.): 1% y/y (prior: 2.6% revised from 2.7%)

  • M4 lending has decreased by 1.1% m/m and down by 0.4% y/y after 1.6% y/y the prior month.
  • Mortgage approvals have rebounded over the month but net credit to consumers has decreased, as well as credit to SMEs and large firms over the month.

France: Consumer confidence (March): 81 as expected (prior: 82)

  • Confidence has eroded from the prior month; opinions on standard of living (past and future) has decreased from the prior month.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (March): -29.5 vs -30 expected (prior: -30.6 revised from -30.5)

  • Flash estimate pointed toward a modest improvement in consumer confidence over the past two months. Income and inflation expectations have turned less negative while business expectations have weakened.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (March): 62.8 (prior: 61.1 revised from 59.9)

  • Consumer confidence has slightly increased with less worries on future economy and on personal financial situation.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (March): 103.4 (prior: 102.1 revised from 102.2)

  • Confidence has also improved in retail and construction sectors.

Sweden: Retail sales (Feb.): -1.2% m/m (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.1%)

  • Sales remained weak for goods but slightly better oriented in services.

Norway: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: 1.3%)

  • Sales have regained but remained below their Q4 levels. Sales in supermarkets were depressed due to rise of food prices.
Terça-feira 28 Março
Firmer US Consumer confidence (Conference Board index)

US: Wholesale inventories (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.4%)

  • Inventories have regained over the month; at the retail level, inventories went up by 0.8% m/m driven by higher inventories in autos.

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Jan.): 2.55% y/y as expected (prior: 4.62% revised from 4.65%)

  • Housing prices have entered a downward trend; prices were down by 0.43% m/m after -0.53 % m/m the prior month.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (March): 104.2 vs 101 expected (prior: 103.4 revised from 102.9)

  • Confidence has regained thanks to improving expectations, while sentiment on current situation has slightly decreased over the month.
  • Views on labor have turned slightly less positive regarding current situation; the 6-month views have increased on improving economic situation and employment.
  • The 12-month inflation has slightly increased from 6.2% y/y to 6.3% (average data).

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (March): -5 vs -10 expected (prior: -16)

  • Business sentiment has turned less negative than expected; opinions have turned less negative on orders and activity and improved on shipments.
  • The 6-month sentiment has rebounded on future activity.
  • Regional manufacturing surveys were all mixed or slightly depressed over the month, except Richmond and modest improvement seen in latest PMI manufacturing.

France: Business confidence (March): 103 as expected (prior: 104 revised from 103)

  • Business confidence has marginally decreased over the month, after modest upward revision the prior month.
  • Confidence in the manufacturing sector has also marginally eased from 105 to 104; opinions were less negative on orders but those on future and past production were slightly lower than in the prior month.

Italy: Consumer confidence (March): 105.1 vs 104 expected (prior: 104)

  • Opinions have marginally improved from the prior month about personal and global economic situation.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (March): 104.2 vs 103 expected (prior: 103 revised from 102.8)

  • Business sentiment has improved on future orders and economic situation.
Segunda-feira 27 Março
German IFO has improved further contrary to expectations

US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing index: -17.5 vs -10 expected (-13.5 prior month)

  • Views have deteriorated on current situation on orders and shipments, while current production was firmer. The 6-months view has deteriorated.

Eurozone: M3 (Feb.): 2.9% y/y vs 3.2% expected (prior: 3.5%)

  • M1 was down by 2.7% y/y after -0.8% y/y the prior month; M2 growth has also decelerated from 3% y/y the prior month to 2% y/y.
  • Credit to the private sector has also slowed down from 3.8% y/y prior month to 3.3% y/y. Resulting from the tighter bank’s lending standards and higher cost of capital, credit should slow down further in the next quarters.

Germany: IFO (March): 93.3 vs 91 expected (prior: 91.1)

  • Contrary to consensus and to the latest PMI manufacturing sentiment has rebounded over the month.
  • Both sentiment on current situation and expectations have rebounded from prior month.
  • Opinions have regained in manufacturing and services while views on trade and construction were just less negative.

Brazil: Consumer confidence (March): 87 (prior: 84.5)

  • Consumer confidence has regained on both current situation and expectations over the month.

Brazil: Current account (Feb.): -2815 M$ vs -5000 M$ expected (prior: -9081 M$ revised from -8791 M$)

  • After two months of large current account deficit, deficit has reduced over the month.
  • Foreign direct investment remained high at USD 6.4 M after USD 6.8 M the prior month.

Turkey: Industrial confidence (March): 104.1 (prior: 102.4)

  • Sentiment on production, orders and exports has increased over the month while opinions on employment have decreased.
Sexta-feira 24 Março
Flash PMI services on the rise in the US and Eurozone

US: Services PMI (March): 53.8 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 50.6)

  • Sentiment has rebounded with higher new demand and firmer activity. Labor and prices remained positive and continue to rise.

US: Manufacturing PMI (March): 49.3 vs 47 expected (prior: 47.3)

  • Sentiment has improved on production but weakened on new orders and exports.
  • Modest increase in prices with some easing in costs. Modest rise in employment.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (March): 47.1 vs 49 expected (prior: 48.5)

  • The flash index has weakened from the prior month, despite some improvement in the supply chain and the auto sector.
  • The index has decreased in Germany (from 46.3 to 44.4) but was slightly higher in France (from 47.4 to 47.7).
  • New orders were weak while prices remained on the rise despite some easing in costs.

Eurozone: PMI Services (March): 55.6 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 52.7)

  • The flash estimates have pointed to an increase in business confidence, despite turmoil in banks.
  • Sentiment has increased in both France and Germany; by sector, demand was firmer, favoring several sectors such as finance, real estate, industrial services, IT and healthcare.
  • As demand remained strong, momentum in prices also stays strong.

Spain: PPI (Feb.): 2.1% m/m (prior: -2.3%)

  • Prices have rebounded due to energy prices.
  • Yearly trend remained stable at 7.8% y/y.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (March): -36 as expected (prior: -38)

  • Sentiment was marginally less negative; opinions have slightly decreased on personal financial situation but were marginally less negative on future economic situation.

UK: Retail sales (Feb.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.5%)

  • Sales (in volume terms) were surprisingly sustained for all categories, except households’ good stores. Discounts and labor have underpinned firm consumption, fuelling upside to inflation in services.

UK: PMI Manufacturing (March): 48 vs 49.7 expected (prior: 49.3)

  • First estimates have pointed to slower activity over the month; employment has also turned less favorable.

UK: PMI Services (March): 52.8 vs 53 expected (prior: 53.5)

  • Sentiment has marginally decreased from the prior month.
Quinta-feira 23 Março
Key rates on the rise for the BoE, Norges Bank and SNB

US: Initial jobless claims (Mar 18): 191k vs 197k expected (prior: 192k)

  • Continuing claims: 1694 k after 1680 k the prior week.

US: New home sales (Feb.): 640k vs 650k expected (prior: 633k revised from 670k)

  • Some rebound after large downwards revisions to prior months data.
  • 2 districts over 4 have driven the monthly rebound; inventories have marginally decreased over the month.
  • Prices were volatile; median prices have rebounded (2.5% y/y after -0.9% y/y the prior month) but mean prices remained under contraction (-4.5% y/y after 4.3% y/y).

Switzerland: The SNB has increased key rates by 50 bp to 1.50%

  • Inflation remained a concern that justified a 50 bp rate hike to 1.50%. The rise in inflation looks broad-based, driven by electricity, food and tourism.
  • The inflation forecasts have been increased by 0.2-0.3 pp to 2.6% in 2023 and 2% in 2024-24; note the 2% inflation target is supposed to be reached at end of 2024.
  • The statement mentioned that more rate hikes are possible, and the bank could remain active in FX interventions.
  • Growth is expected to be around 1% in 2023 and uncertainties remain on the short term related to foreign economies and turmoil in banks.
  • SNB mentioned that actions have put a halt on the bank crisis, and the bank will provide liquidity in Swiss franc and foreign currencies. Signs of slowdown in housing prices have developed, and vulnerabilities remain in place according to the central bank.

Norway: Norges bank has increased key rates by 25 bp as expected to 3.0%

  • Hawkish statement mentioned further rises in May (and probably June) to contain any inflation-wage growth spiral.

UK: The BoE has increased key rates by 25 bp to 4.25%

  • The bank has hiked by 25 bp after 50 bp the previous meeting. 2 governors were in favor of no change rates and other agreed to hike by 25 bp.
  • Meeting-by-meeting decision should lead to another potential hike in May if inflation and labor stay high or a pause if inflation comes back. Growth is expected to be slightly positive in Q2 after a mild negative Q1 GDP.
  • The bank stated the banking sector is in a good shape. The bank will monitor credit conditions but did not seem to expect more restrictive credit supply.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (March): 80.1 (prior: 82.5)

  • Consumer confidence has decreased on deteriorating future personal financial situation; opinions on economy and purchases have also slightly decreased over the month.

Turkey: The central bank has left key rates unchanged at 8.50%

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Insight 23.02.2023

Adapting Advisory portfolios to the improved fixed income outlook

As a decade of yield repression comes to an end, building a fixed income portfolio with an acceptable yield has become an easier task. Given a deteriorating economic background and hawkish policymakers, we believe in harvesting the attractive yields offered by short-term quality bonds, which currently have the best risk-return profile.