Atualização macro diária

US: Initial jobless claims (July 20): 235k vs 238k expected (prior: 245k revised from 243k)

• Continuing claims: 1851 k after 1860 k the prior week.

US: GDP (Q2-24): 2.8% q/q vs 2% expected (prior: 1.4%)

• GDP has reaccelerated more than expected due to a still sustained domestic demand, a strong contribution from accumulating inventories and public consumption.
• Consumption was up by 2.3% q/q after 1.5%: purchases of goods have rebounded (2.5%q after -2.3%q), while trend remained sustained on services (2.2% q/q after 3.3% q/q).
• Investment was globally also sustained, with some rotation by sector; structure was down (-3.3% q/q after 3.4% q/q) as well as residential investment (-1.4% q/q after 16% q/q); on the opposite, R&D remained sustained (up by 4.5% after 7.7% q/q) and equipment has rebounded (11.6% q/q after 1.6% q/q).
• Exports were up by 2% q/q but imports up by 6.9% q/q; the net export contribution to GDP was negative (-0.72 bp after -0.65 bp in Q1).
• Public consumption was up by 3.1% after 1.8% q/q in Q1 and has contributed by 0.53 bp to GDP (0.31 bp in Q1).
• Finally, inventories have strongly rebounded and contributed up by 0.82 bp to Q2 GDP (-0.42 bp in Q1).
• Final domestic sales remained on a stable and sustained trend (2.6% q/q in Q2 and Q1), while dynamic in public consumption, inventories and net exports gave in aggregated terms a positive boost in Q2 after net retreat in Q1.

US: Durable goods orders (June): -6.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• The fall in durable goods was due to a large fall on aircraft orders, while orders for defense remained strong.
• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core goods) were up by 1% m/m after -0.9% m/m the prior month; by sector, orders have rebounded for computers, machinery, and electrical equipment.
• Shipments were up by 1.2% m/m (-0.4% m/m the prior month) and also up by 5.2% m/m for core goods.
• Inventories were flat over the month.

France: Business confidence (July): 94 vs 99 expected (prior: 99)

• Business sentiment has sharply declined over the month; opinions have decreased on production and a sharp fall was seen on foreign order books (lowest level of opinions since 2021). Views on employment have decreased.
• Separately, sentiment has decreased in services, driven lower by retail and construction.

Germany: IFO (July): 87 vs 89 expected (prior: 88.6)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month, driven lower by decreasing both current situation and expectations.
• Expectations have reversed strongly after several months of improvement in Q1-24.
• All sectors have shown decreasing sentiment from the prior month. The largest fall was coming from manufacturing and trade sectors, while sentiment was also more depressed in construction.
• As seen with flash PMI, momentum has deteriorated in Germany.

Eurozone: M3 (June): 2.2% y/y vs 1.9% expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.6%)

• M1 was down by 3.4% y/y after -5% y/y the prior month; M2 was up by 1.3% y/y after 0.6% y/y the prior month.
• Credit to the private sector was up by 0.8% y/y after 0.5% y/y: credit to consumption remained on regular trend (2.7% y/y) and credit to firms was on modest growth (over 5 years) by 1.4% y/y.

Turkey: Industrial confidence (July): 98.75 (prior: 100.5)

• Business confidence has weakened, and details were mixed.
• Opinions improved on current production and exports, and they declined on total orders and inventories were on the rise over the month.
• The index is at its lowest level since 2022.

US: Wholesale inventories (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Inventories of autos continued to rise rapidly.

US: Services PMI (Jul P): 56.0 vs 54.9 expected (prior: 55.3)

• Preliminary data revealed that new business inflows surged significantly, marking their fastest growth in over a year. However, the increase in payroll was slower than in June.
• Service prices rose at their slowest rate in almost four years, while input costs climbed more rapidly.
• Despite this, optimism about future output declined due to uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Presidential Election and potential policy changes.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 55.0 in July 2024 from 54.8 in June, the highest since April 2022, indicating continual growth over the past 18 months, flash estimates showed.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Jul P): 49.5 vs 51.6 expected (prior: 51.6)

• The latest reading indicated a decline in business conditions within the goods-producing sector due to decreases in new orders, production, and inventories.
• Employment growth slowed, further weighing on the sector. Suppliers’ delivery times increased slightly, but the delay was minimal.
• On the pricing side, factory gate prices for goods saw their smallest increase in a year, while input prices rose more rapidly, influenced by higher costs for raw materials, energy, and logistics.
• Nevertheless, business sentiment improved from June’s 19-month low, driven by capacity expansion and expectations of stronger demand in the coming year, particularly following the election.

US: New home sales (Jun): 640k vs 617k expected (prior: 621k revised from 619k)

• Sales of new single-family houses in the United States decreased by 0.6% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 617k in June 2024. High prices and mortgage rates continued to impact buyers' affordability.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (July): 45.6 vs 46.1 expected (prior: 45.8)

• Flash business sentiment has weakened further over the month; sentiment on production, new orders, exports, and employment has decreased over the month. Costs continued to increase but selling prices have moderated due to reduced pricing power.
• Flash PMI has decreased for both France and Germany over the month.

Eurozone: PMI Services (July): 51.9 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 52.8)

• Business sentiment has decreased for the second month. Sentiment on new business has decreased except in France as Olympic Games preparation has boosted the activity. Nevertheless, the French index was just back to 50.7 after 49.6 the prior month.
• Business sentiment has decreased in Germany based on flash PMI services (52 after 53.1).
• Costs remained on the rise as well as selling prices; employment remained positive.
• Composite index (mix of services and manufacturing) was down from 50.9 to 50.1; it remained above 50 thanks to services while manufacturing was back into a kind of stagflation. Performances across countries will continue to diverge as peripherals should deliver firmer activity than France and Germany.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Aug.): -18.4 vs -21 expected (prior: -21.6 revised from -21.8)

• Consumer confidence has continued to improve; sentiment improved on income and future activity.

Spain: PPI (June): 1.9% m/m (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

• The largest monthly rebound in prices was due to energy and electricity prices over the month.
• Yearly trend has increased from -4.5% y/y the prior month to -3.5% y/y.

UK: PMI Manufacturing (July): 51.8 vs 51 expected (prior: 50.9)

• Flash estimate of business sentiment has increased over the month thanks to higher production, orders, and exports.
• Employment and prices were also on the rise.

• UK: PMI Services (July): 52.4 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 52.1)
• Business sentiment has increased over the month; new orders have strongly rebounded, thanks to firmer domestic demand and exports.
• Employment and costs were on the rise over the month.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (July): -17 vs -7 expected (prior: -10)

• Business sentiment has dramatically decreased over the month to reach lowest level this year.
• Sentiment has decreased on shipments, new orders, and business conditions; the 6-month index has increased on shipments but remained cautious on orders and employment versus the prior month.

US: Existing home sales (June): 3.89M vs 3.98M expected (prior: 4.11M)

• Sales have decreased for both single houses and condos but declined the most for condos.
• Inventories were on the rise over the month, the most fo condos.
• Prices have slightly increased in absolute terms from the prior month and were up by 4.1% y/y (5.8%y/y the prior month).

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (July): -13 vs -13.5 expected (prior: -14)

• First estimate of consumer confidence pointed towards ongoing improvement of global consumer confidence.

Poland: Unemployment rate (June): 4.9% as expected (prior: 5%)

• Unemployed remained on a downward trend.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (July): 75.9 (prior: 78.3)

• Consumer confidence has decreased over the month; sentiment has deteriorated on financial situation, unemployment, and future economic conditions.

Switzerland: M3 (June): 0.4% y/y (prior: -0.6%)

• M1 was still down by 9.6% y/y after -12.6% y/y the prior month and M2 down by 5.3% y/y after -7.7% y/y.
• Time deposits remained on a sustained growth trend (35.2% y/y).

Poland: Retail sales (June): 0.3% m/m vs 1.4% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Sales were strong for autos and fuels but have reversed in other sectors over the month.
• Sales were up by 4.4% y/y after 5% y/y the prior month (all in volume terms).