Atualização macro diária

US: CPI (Sep): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• US consumer prices rose less than expected in September, as easing housing and food costs offset a sharp 4% monthly surge in gasoline prices.
• Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by just 0.2% month-on-month, below the anticipated 0.3%. On a yearly basis, CPI printed at 3.0% vs. 3.1% expected.
• Shelter costs, making up 35% of the headline index, slowed to 0.2% from 0.4% in August, while food prices also decelerated to 0.2% from 0.5%. Meanwhile, categories sensitive to tariffs, such as household furnishings and recreational goods, saw gains, and apparel prices posted their fastest rise in a year.
• This softer inflation print supports the Federal Reserve’s case for further rate cuts. We expect 25 bp reductions at both next week and December meetings.

US: Services PMI (Oct P): 55.2 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 54.2)

• October’s flash PMI data signal robust economic growth at the start of Q4, with business activity gaining momentum in both manufacturing (52.2) and services (55.2), despite some disruptions from the government shutdown.
• The composite PMI rose to 54.8 in October from 53.9 in September, marking the highest reading since July.
• Yet, business confidence has plunged to a three-year low, driven by concerns over tariffs, weak export demand, and rising unsold inventories. Manufacturers, having stockpiled inputs earlier to preempt tariffs, are now producing more but struggling to sell finished goods.
• While input costs surged again in October due to tariff pressures, firms have slashed price increases to their lowest level since April, competing aggressively to secure sales.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct F): 53.6 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 55.1)

• US consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, was revised down to 53.6 in October, a five-month low. Both current conditions (58.6 vs. 61) and expectations (50.3 vs. 51.3) saw downward adjustments
• Year-ahead inflation expectations eased slightly to 4.6%, matching initial estimates, while the 5-year outlook rose to 3.9%, up from 3.7% previously.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Oct P): 52.6 vs 51.2 expected (prior: 51.3)

• Eurozone business activity surged to its highest level since 2023, with the composite PMI rising to 52.2, surpassing the forecast of 51.1. The data underscores the region's economic resilience, bolstering the case for the ECB to hold interest rates steady.
• Domestic demand drove a sharp rise in new orders, offsetting a continued slump in exports. While input cost inflation eased for the second month, output prices climbed at their fastest pace in seven months. However, business confidence dipped to a five-month low.
• The services sector drove growth, hitting a one-year high of 52.6, while manufacturing narrowly avoided contraction (50 vs. 49.8 expected).
• A country-level breakdown shows that Germany’s services sector outperformed expectations (54.5 vs. 51.0), but France continued to lag (47.1 vs. 48.7), weighed down by political uncertainty. Manufacturing remains a weak spot across both economies.

UK: Retail sales (Oct): -0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

• UK retail sales, including auto fuel, unexpectedly rose in September for the fourth consecutive month, offering a rare boost amid signs of a slowing economy and weakening job market.
• Growth was driven by non-food stores, particularly computer and telecom retailers, while online jewelers saw strong demand for gold, according to the ONS.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Oct): -17 vs -20 expected (prior: -19)

• UK household confidence has climbed to its highest level this year, though economic pessimism persists, with more people viewing now as a good time to save.
• Notably, the boost in confidence comes ahead of the November 26 budget, where Rachel Reeves is expected to unveil further tax hikes.
• The rise was largely driven by a greater willingness to purchase big-ticket items.

UK: Services PMI (Oct P): 51.1 vs 51.0 expected (prior: 50.8)

• The UK private sector picked up pace in October, with services growing modestly and manufacturing PMI beating expectations at 49.6, driven by the first output expansion in a year (index: 51.2).
• Input price pressures fell to their lowest since November 2024, easing output price inflation, especially in services.
• The composite PMI rose to 51.1 from 50.1 in September.