US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.26): 225k vs 235k expected (prior: 241k revised from 240k)
- Continuing claims: 1608 k after 1551 k the prior week.
US: Personal income (Oct.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Wages were up by 0.5% m/m (0.6% m/m the prior month) and disposable income was up by 0.7% m/m after 0.3% m/m; real disposable income was up by 0.4% m/m after being flat the prior month.
- Besides the rise in wages, transfers and dividends have accelerated over the month adding support to disposable income.
US: Personal spending (Oct.): 0.8% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)
- Purchases of goods were up by 1.4% m/m after 0.35% m/m prior month and services up by 0.5% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month.
- Sustained purchases have led to a modest decrease in savings ration, from 2.4% to 2.3%.
US: Core PCE (Oct.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Monthly change was just below expectations; yearly trend has declined from 5.18% y/y the prior month to 4.98% y/y.
US: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 47.7 vs 47.6 expected (prior: 50.4)
- Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month; sentiment has deteriorated on production, new orders and exports; it has also slowed down on employment.
- Constraints on delivery have eased, helped by lower demand; costs and prices have continued to rise but at slower pace than prior months.
US: ISM Manufacturing (Nov.): 49 vs 49.7 expected (prior: 50.4)
- Business confidence has declined more than expected; all major components have decreased over the month: lower production, new orders, backlog of orders, inventories and employment. Views on new export orders have regained over the month, but the sub-index stayed below 50.
- More interestingly, prices paid have significantly decreased over the month.
UK: Nationwide house prices (Nov.): -1.4% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: -0.9%)
- Prices have contracted further over the month and the downward trend is in place for te past 3 months.
- Higher mortgages deteriorated affordability ratio and weigh on demand and prices.
- Yearly trend has declined from 7.2% y/y the prior month to 4.4% y/y.
UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 46.5 vs 46.2 expected (prior: 46.2)
- Business confidence has slightly regained from the prior month, but details offered a still bleak picture.
- Opinions on production, new orders, exports, and employment have decreased from the prior month.
- Prices pressures have eased from the past months, but costs continued to rise.
Switzerland: CPI (Nov.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Prices of energy (-1.3 % m/m after -2.5% m/m the prior month), food and in leisure have declined over the month, while rents and household goods-furniture have increased over the month. Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after being flat the prior month.
- Yearly trend remained stable at 3% y/y for headline prices and has slightly increased for core inflation from 2.5% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y.
Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 53.9 vs 54 expected (prior: 54.9)
- Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month, but it remained high compared to other developed countries despite a regular declining trend since May 2021.
- Details were mixed: decreasing opinions backlog of orders, purchases, and inventories but ring views on output and employment.
- Separately, PMI services index has marginally declined from 53.6 the prior month to 53.5; while opinions have increased on new orders and employment, they decreased on activity, backlog of orders and on prices.
Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 45.8 (prior: 46.6 revised from 46.8)
- Business confidence has declined over the month; views on production, employment, exports have decreased while domestic orders were slightly better oriented.
Norway: PMI manufacturing has declined from 52.9 the prior month to 51.2 in Nov.
Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.5% vs 6.6% expected (prior: 6.6%)
- The unemployment has declined further to reach new lows. The decrease was broad-based across all members.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 47.1 vs 47.3 expected (prior: 46.4)
- Business sentiment has slightly regained from the prior month, but less than expected; the small improvement was seen in all countries, but it came lower than expected and all indices remained well below 50.
- New orders have improved over the month, but the related index remained below 40; some improvement was seen in delivery with less pressure on supply chain and some easing in input costs. Uncertainty on the economy, rising inventories and high prices have weighted on demand to firms.
Germany: Retail sales (Oct.): -2.8% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 0.9%)
- Sales were depressed in all sectors over the month and have reverted after past month data were revised up.
Italy: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 7.8% vs 8% expected (prior: 7.9%)
- Unemployment ratio has continued to trend lower.
Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 43.4 vs 43 expected (prior: 42)
- New orders have slightly regained over the month.
Brazil: GDP (Q3-22): 0.4% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1% revised from 1.2%)
- Growth has weakened more than expected over the quarter; a slowdown in consumption (1% q/q after 2.1% q in Q2), while investment and government spending remained strong; net export contribution was negative imports have surged.
- After large fiscal support, activity has moderated. A larger slowdown in industry, while services remained on sustained growth trend.
Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 45.7 (prior: 46.4)
- The index decreased on lower new orders.