1. Competências de Investimento
  2. Perspetivas de mercado

Resumo macroeconómico diário

Sexta-feira 17 Maio
Eurozone core inflation down in April

Eurozone: CPI (April F.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • CPI y/y: 2.4% as expected (prior: 2.4%)
  • Core CPI y/y: 2.7% as expected (prior: 2.9%)
  • The final release confirmed that headline inflation remained at 2.4% in April and that core inflation declined to 2.7% from 2.9% in March.
  • Importantly, services price inflation fell to 3.7% after standing at 4.0% for five months.
  • Headline and core inflation should continue to drift downward in the coming months, and the ECB is very likely to cut rates in June.



Quinta-feira 16 Maio
US: weak housing starts for single-family houses and flat industrial production

US: Initial jobless claims (May 11): 222k vs 220k expected (prior: 232k revised from 231k)

  • Continuing claims: 1794 k after 1781 k the prior week.


US: Housing starts (April): 1360k vs 1421k expected (prior: 1287k revised from 1321k)

  • Data have rebounded from the prior month but remained well below consensus expectations.
  • The monthly rebound was mainly driven by multi-family houses while single-family houses have modestly decreased (from 1035 k prior month to 1031 k).
  • Building permits have decreased for both categories, from 1485 k in aggregated terms to 1440 k.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): 4.5 vs 7.8 expected (prior: 15.5)

  • Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions have decreased on new orders, shipments and on prices paid.
  • The 6-month index has also decreased on lower new orders and prices paid; index remained constructive on shipments and employment.


US: Industrial production (April): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.4%)

  • Manufacturing production was down by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month due to a large fall in auto and machinery production.
  • Activity in utility remained strong up by 2.8% m/m after 1.6% m/m prior month.


Italy: CPI (April): 0.5% m/m (prior: 1.2%)

  • Over the moth, prices of clothes and leisure services have accelerated while prices of electricity and communication were down.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 1.2% y/y the prior month to 0.9% y/y.


Norway: GDP Mainland (Q1-24): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Activity has expanded thanks to manufacturing and services for oil industry.
  • By expenditure, consumption and investment were down over the quarter while public consumption was up.
Quarta-feira 15 Maio
US: inflation slightly lower than expected and weak retail sales

US: CPI (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Inflation has come just slightly lower than expected over the month; core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.
  • Energy prices were up by 1.1% m/m as seen the prior month (higher gasoline prices); food was flat over the month and prices of goods remained in contraction (down by 0.1% m/m after -0.2% m/m); within this sector, prices for furniture and cars were down but prices of apparels remained on sustained monthly rise.
  • Services were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month; shelter remained on stable trend (0.4% m/m), while modest easing in month-to-month change was seen for medical care (from 0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m), transport services (from 1.5% m/m to 0.9% m/m); on the opposite, recreation (0.3% m/m) and other personal services (1.1% m/m) have accelerated.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 3.8% y/y prior month to 3.6% y/y and from 3.5% to 3.4% y/y for core inflation.
  • Inflation remained above 3% y/y and services continue to drive the trend; nevertheless, monthly changes in services have moderated from the prior month; more of decline/moderation in services is needed for the Fed to rebuild high confidence on disinflation trend.


US: NY Empire manufacturing (May): -15.6 vs -10 expected (prior: -14.3)

  • Both sentiment on current situation and the 6-month index have decreased over the month.
  • Opinions have decreased on new orders, employment, and prices, while those on shipments have slightly regained.


US: Retail sales (April): 0% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)

  • Core sales (ex-building materials, autos, food, and energy) were down by 0.3% m/m after 1% m/m.
  • Sales were down for autos (main negative contribution to the monthly fall), and for furniture and sport.
  • Sales were on positive trend over the past month for gasoline and building materials and have rebounded over the month on electronics and clothes.
  • Moderation in sales may fuel the idea the economy is not overheating; nevertheless, sales reflect weak momentum in purchases of goods, while demand may remain sustained in services (not included in these monthly sales data).


US: Business inventories (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

  • Inventories were down for wholesalers but on the rise for retailers and manufacturing sectors; the trend remained on the rise for the auto sector, and it has also increased for general merchandise.
  • Total sales have increased, and the inventory-to-sales ratio remained globally stable.


US: NAHB housing market index (May): 45 vs 50 expected (prior: 51)

  • Sentiment has turned abruptly negative on all components of housing demand due to the rise seen past months on mortgage rates.
  • The index was back to its Jan. level.


Eurozone: Industrial production (March): 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.8%)

  • Production has rebounded more than consensus was expecting during the month.
  • Nevertheless, the rebound was centred on capital goods, while other sectors have contracted, particularly energy and consumer goods.
  • Irish production remained highly volatile and was up by 12% m/m, while industrial activity was down in the 4 major countries of the area.


France: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Monthly changes remained sustained and in line with first estimates. Prices of clothes, oil, and services (transport) were firmer over the month.
  • Yearly trend remained stable at 2.4% y/y.


Poland: CPI (April): 1.1% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Prices have accelerated over the month, due to several sectors; prices were firmer for food, clothes, transport-fuel, and services to tourism.
  • Yearly trend has re-accelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.0% y/y the prior month.


Poland: GDP (Q1-24): 0.4% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)

  • GDP has rebounded after a contraction in Q4-23; no details by sector were available but services have probably driven the Q1 rebound, while other sectors were weak.


Sweden: CPI (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Prices have regained over the month for clothes, health, and restaurants-hotels.
  • Yearly trend has regained from 2.2% y/y the prior month to 2.3% y/y; core inflation remained stable at 2.9%y/y.
Terça-feira 14 Maio
US PPI stronger than expected; Germany ZEW expectations rebounding further

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (April): 89.7 vs 88.2 expected (prior: 88.5)

  • Sentiment has regained after a fall in the prior month; the index was back to average Feb.-Jan. level.
  • Sentiment has improved on capex and hiring from the prior month and was less negative on future sales; nevertheless, views on economy have deteriorated while credit remained a constraint.
  • There was less pressure on selling prices.


US: PPI (April): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • Prices remained on sustained monthly change, but prior month data were significantly revised down.
  • Energy prices were strong (2.0% m/m after -1.3% m/m prior month); services remained sustained (0.6% m/m after -0.1% m/m, due to trade costs), and good prices were up by 0.4% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month. Prices have contracted for food and warehouses services over the month. Core PPI were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend was up by 2.2% y/y after 2.1% y/y the prior month.
  • Upside risks remained in place on the inflation front.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (March): 4.3% as expected (prior: 4.2%)

  • Claimant count: 4.1% after 4.1% the prior month (4.0%).
  • Employed has declined by 178 k over the 3-month period. Unemployed has increased by 166k over the period after -67 k the past period. Over the Jan-March period, employed full time has increased from the previous period, but the decrease was seen for self-employed, part-time, and temporary workers.
  • Vacancies have continued to regularly decrease (898 k in Feb-April).
  • Momentum in labor has turned less positive, but the rise in unemployment ratio is still limited.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (March): 5.7% y/y vs 5.5% expected (prior: 5.7% revised from 5.6%)

  • Wage growth remained on the same trend as the prior month. But the picture has shown larger divergences across sectors.
  • Wages have increased in services (6.0% y/y after 5.9% y/y prior month, due to the finance sector (bonus effect). Trend has decreased in manufacturing (5.9% after 6.6% y/y prior month) and collapsed on construction and retail-hotel sectors.
  • Wage growth remained high, but disparities have increased across sectors, pointing to slower wage growth in the next quarters.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (April): 0.6% m/m (prior: 0.1%)

  • Prices have accelerated due to import prices, up by 0.9% m/m (0.1% m/m the prior month); producer prices were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
  • Yearly trend has still declined but at a slower pace at -1.8% y/y after -2.1% y/y the prior month.


Germany: Zew (May): 47.1 vs 46.4 expected (prior: 42.9)

  • Expectations have regained further while sentiment on current situation has only modestly regained (index up to -72.3 after -79.2 the prior month).
  • Sentiment has improved for services, retail, construction and also engineering chemical and finance; opinions in other sectors remained stable or even declined in terms of expectations.
  • A more constructive environment but fragilities across sectors remained in place.


Germany: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inflation remained sustained on a monthly basis, as seen in preliminary data.
  • Several sectors have shown a strong monthly rise: energy, clothes, food, hotels and other services.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 2.3% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y.


Spain: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 1.4%)

  • Monthly change was sustained as seen in preliminary data; prices for clothes, hotels-restaurants and food were strong on a monthly basis.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 3.3% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.
Segunda-feira 13 Maio
Turkish current account deficit regained in March

Turkey: Current account (March): -4.54bn USD vs -3.75bn expected (prior: -3.64bn revised from -3.27bn)

  • Current account deficit has increased due to rising deficit on goods and lower surplus on services over the month.
  • Official reserves have decreased by USD 10.28 bn due to capital outflows.
Ler mais

Clientes institucionais

Contando com uma equipa de mais de 200 pessoas, a UBP Asset Management conquistou a presença no terreno nos principais mercados mundiais graças a um crescimento orgânico e a parcerias selecionadas.

A nossa gama de fundos


Ver todos os nossos fundos.

Insight 21.05.2024

Embracing regenerative agriculture for sustainable growth

UBP’s impact team believes in the pivotal role regenerative agriculture has to play in addressing environmental challenges and fostering long-term prosperity. This theme can provide fertile ground for investors looking at impact investing.