Atualização macro diária

US: PPI (March): 0.5% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.7%)

• PPI y/y: 4.0% vs 4.6% expected (prior: 3.4%)
• Core PPI: +0.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.5%); 3.8% vs 4.1% expected (prior: 3.8%)
• The 16% surge in gas contributed for nearly half of the monthly rise.
• Other categories showed a mixed pace of increases, but the overall rise is significantly below expectations, which should reassure the Fed, at least in the short term.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (March): 95.8 vs 97.9 expected (prior: 98.8)

• Sentiment across small business fell more than expected, to its lowest level since April 2025.
• The positives from tax cuts were offset by the surge in oil prices and other input costs: 8 out of 10 subcomponents declined with no change in the other two measures.
• The earnings trend and economic expectations fell by the largest amount while those planning capital expenditures in the next 3-6 months shrank to the lowest since 2009.
• The net share of firms expecting to increase employment was unchanged, but still at the lowest levels seen in nearly a year and, finally, the answers about the willingness to raise prices were mixed.

Germany: PPI (March): 2.7% m/m (prior: 0.6%)

• Monthly prices have surged due to rising prices of energy and raw materials.
• The yearly change has rebounded from 1.2% y/y to 4.1% y/y.

Spain: CPI (March): 1.7% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Final data reveal a higher monthly rise than initially estimated.
• Energy prices were up 6.7% m/m due to a surge in fuel, gas and electricity prices. Separately, core prices were up 0.7% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month) due to a rebound in clothes, transport and restaurants prices.
• Annual inflation has accelerated to 3.4% y/y (3.3% y/y expected) from 2.5% y/y prior month.

Sweden: CPI (March): -0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Final data confirmed the decline in prices over the month; despite a monthly rebound in energy, transport and prices of clothes, prices have edged lower due to falling prices in food, utility, and leisure.
• Core inflation was down 0.3% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month.
• The annual change has declined from 1.7% y/y in the prior month to 1.6% y/y and core inflation from 1.4% y/y to 1.1% y/y.

US: Existing home sales (March): 3.98M vs 4.05M expected (prior: 4.13M revised from 4.09M)

• Sales have decreased over the month after upward revisions to prior month data.
• Sales have decreased for both single-family homes (-3.5%m/m) and condos (-5.4% m/m).
• Inventories have increased over the month; despite this, median prices remained on a regular rising trend over the past months and were up by 1.4% y/y.
• Higher mortgage rates have weighed down on sales of houses.

Turkey: Current account (Feb.): -7.50bn USD vs -7.10bn expected (prior: -7.04bn revised from -6.81bn)

• Trade deficit has increased over the month, due to higher oil prices, and surplus from services has decreased.
• Official reserves have declined by USD 10.63 bn after USD +11.9 bn the prior month.

US: CPI (March): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• CPI y/y: 3.3% vs 3.4% expected (prior: 2.4%)
• Core CPI:  0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%); 2.6% y/y vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.5%)
• Inflation recorded in March the strongest monthly increase in nearly four years and annual inflation rose to the highest level since 2024.
• About three quarters of the monthly advance is due to the surge in energy goods prices (+21% m/m). Airfares rose 2.7% m/m.
• On the positive side, grocery costs declined 0.2% m/m, used car prices declined 0.4% m/m while services costs ex housing & energy rose 0.2% m/m, the slowest pace this year.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (April Prel.): 47.6 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 53.3)

• Current conditions: 50.1 vs 53.4 expected (prior: 55.8)
• Expectations: 46.1 vs 50.2 expected (prior: 51.7)
• On the back of rising worries about increasing inflation, consumer inflation fell to a record low according to this survey.
• Consumers now expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year (vs 4.2% expected), a full percentage point increase from March.
• Consumers' perceptions of their current financial situation matched the worst level since 2009.
• The partisan divide remains extremely elevated, but sentiment slipped across the board this month, regardless of political stripe.

US: Durable goods orders (Feb. F.): -1.3% m/m vs -1.4% expected (prior: -0.5%)

• Factory orders were flat in February (vs -0.2% m/m expected).

Italy: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Industrial production was up 0.5% y/y vs down 3.6% in January.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (March): -42.9 vs -32.4 expected (prior: -30.4)

• Consumer confidence fell back to last April's (low) level.

Norway: CPI (March): 0.2% m/m (prior: 0.6%)

• Headline inflation rose to 3.6% (as expected) from 2.7% in February.
• Underlying inflation was unchanged at 3.0% y/y (vs 3.1% expected).

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr 4): 219k vs 210k expected (prior: 203k revised from 202k)

• New jobless claims rose more than expected in late March and early April, a period often prone to statistical noise because of holidays.
• Even so, initial claims have remained below their level in the comparable week of 2025 for eight straight weeks.
• More telling, continuing claims a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, fell by 38,000 to 1.794 million, near a two-year low. That gradual decline could hint at a labor market that is stabilizing.

US: GDP (4Q T): 0.5% q/q vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Real GDP growth was revised down again, to 0.5% q/q in the third estimate, from 0.7% previously.
• Even so, final sales to private domestic purchasers, a gauge of underlying demand, held steady.

US: Core PCE deflator (Feb): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Headline PCE rose in line with expectations in February, while the annual rate held at 2.8%. The pressure was coming mainly from goods (contributing 20 bps to the core reading vs 7 bps in January).
• Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, edged down on the month. Year-on-year, it eased from 3.1% to 3.0%.
• The supercore measure (core services excluding housing) slowed to 0.22% in February from 0.48% in January, signaling a further cooling in underlying services inflation.
• These figures predate the Iran conflict and the ensuing surge in energy prices.

US: Personal spending (Feb): 0.5% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Even before the conflict, consumers tightened their belts. In February, personal income unexpectedly fell by 0.1% m/m, versus a forecast rise of 0.3%. The drop was driven by weaker transfer payments (notably Social Security) and lower dividend income; labor income rose a modest 0.2%.
• With spending outpacing income, the saving rate slipped to 4.0% from 4.5% in January, before March’s gasoline shock hit.
• Real consumer spending rose just 0.1%, undershooting expectations of 0.2%.

Germany: Industrial production (Feb): -0.3% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.5%)

• German industrial output disappointed in February, dragged down by a slide in construction. Manufacturing was merely flat, following a sharp drop around the turn of the year.
• Within manufacturing, the picture was mixed: production rose in several categories, including transport, but steep falls in pharmaceuticals (-4.4% m/m), computers (-3.9%) and furniture (-4.2%) weighed on the headline.
• The case for a rebound looks thin. New manufacturing orders offered little sign of a broad-based recovery, and surging energy costs have darkened sentiment: the latest Ifo survey reported a deterioration in business expectations across all major sectors.

Germany: Trade Balance (Feb): 19.8bn EUR vs 18.5bn expected (prior: 20.3bn revised from 21.2bn)

• Germany’s trade surplus narrowed in February as exports rose 3.6% m/m to a three-year high, while imports climbed 4.7%.