Atualização macro diária

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Dec P): 53.3 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.0)

• US consumer confidence increased for the first time in five months, driven by easing inflation expectations and a brighter outlook on personal finances.
• Consumers now anticipate prices to rise 4.1% over the next year, down from 4.5% and marking the lowest level since January.
• While optimism about the job market improved slightly, most respondents still foresee higher unemployment in the year ahead.

US: Core PCE deflator (Sep): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• The core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8% y/y in line with expectations.
• Real spending stagnated in September (0% m/m vs. 0.1% expected), adding to the case for a cut, while personal income grew 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected, driven largely by higher employee compensation.

Spain: Industrial production (Oct): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• On an annual basis, the industry figure also grew more than anticipated, increasing by 1.2% y/y compared to 0.8% y/y.

Germany: Factory orders (Oct): 1.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 2.0% revised from 1.1%)

• German factory orders soared in October, buoyed by an 87% spike in large-scale transport orders, including aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicles.
• However, despite signs of stabilization in September's factory orders and industrial output, the German Manufacturing PMI for November dropped further below the critical 50-point threshold, signaling continued contraction in the sector impacted by US tariffs.

France: Industrial production (Oct): 0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.8%)

• France industrial output was also better than expected on a yearly basis: 1.7% y/y vs 1.3% y/y.

Eurozone: GDP (3Q T): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• The Eurozone's Q3 GDP growth was revised up slightly to 0.3% m/m from 0.2%, driven by a resilient services sector, while manufacturing remains sluggish as well as household consumption.

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 29): 191k vs 220k expected (prior: 218k revised from 216k)

• Continuing claims: 1939 k after 1943 k prior week.

US: Factory orders (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.4%)

• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month.
• Total shipments were flat after -0.3% m/m prior month; inventories were down by 0.1% m/m.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Oct.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%)

• Sales of food and fuel were up by 0.3% m/m, while sales in other sectors were down by 0.2% m/m after being flat the prior month.

Sweden: CPI (Nov.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a decline in monthly and yearly trend.
• Core inflation was estimated being down by 0.6% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month. No details by sector are available in preliminary data.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y and from 2.8% to 2.4% y/y for core inflation.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Nov.): 3% as expected (prior: 3%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month but the ratio remained stable.

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 49.7 vs 48.9 expected (prior: 48.2)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded from the prior month, but the index remained just below the 50 level.
• The improvement was broad-based as all major components have regained (production, orders, and employment); this improvement is probably related to the deal on tariffs with the US.
• Separately, PMI services index has decreased from 47.8 prior month to 45.3; the decrease was broad-based, except for employment and prices.

Brazil: GDP (Q3-25): 0.1% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Growth has slowed down in Q3 as consumption was up by 0.1%q after 0.6% q in Q2; other components were more positive: a strong support from public consumption (1.3%q), a rebound in investment (0.9%q) and net trade contribution was positive than to strong exports.

US: ADP Employment Change (Nov.) -32k vs. 10k expected (prior: 47k, revised from 42k)

• Jobs have significantly contracted after the rebound in October, pointing to a fragile labor market.
• Jobs have contracted by 120k for small firms (-10k the prior month); jobs rebounded for medium-sized firms (51k after -21k in October) and have decreased for large firms (39k after 73k the prior month).
• Jobs have contracted in both the goods and services sectors over the month.
• Wage growth has slowed: 4.4% for job-stayers (4.5% the prior month) and 6.3% for job-changers (6.7% the prior month).
• For the Fed, the balance of risks could point towards a deteriorating labor market, justifying the expected rate cut next week.

US: Industrial Production (Sept.) 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.3%, revised from 0.1%)

• Manufacturing production was flat over the month after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Production was more sustained over the month for utilities and computer-electronics but decreased for autos and machinery.

US: ISM Services (Nov): 52.6 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 52.4)

• US services activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in November, reaching a nine-month high, supported by improved business activity (54.4 vs 54.3) and employment (48.9 vs 48.2).
• Prices for services and materials grew at their slowest rate in seven months (65.4 vs 70.0), signaling some relief from inflationary pressures.
• New orders declined (52.9 vs 56.2), and supplier delivery times lengthened, likely due to air traffic disruptions caused by the government shutdown and customs delays related to changing tariffs.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Nov.) 53.6 vs. 53.1 expected (prior: 53)

• Momentum remained positive in services, as revealed by the final confidence index.
• The index rebounded in France (from 48 the prior month to 51.4) and in Italy (from 54 to 55), but it weakened in Germany (from 54.6 to 53.1) and Spain (from 56.6 to 55.6).
• Demand was firm over the month, and employment was more positive. Input inflation was moderate despite rising costs.

Eurozone: PPI (Oct.) 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Except for prices of non-durable goods, prices in other sectors were up by 0.1% m/m.
• The yearly trend declined from -0.2% y/y the prior month to -0.5% y/y.

Switzerland: CPI (Nov.) -0.2% m/m vs. -0.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Goods prices were down by 0.3% m/m after -0.2% m/m the prior month; services were down by 0.2% m/m after -0.3% m/m.
• Over the month, prices fell in many sectors: food, clothes, transport, leisure, and restaurants. Energy prices rose over the month.
• Core inflation was down by 0.1% (-0.2% m/m the prior month), and imported goods prices were down by 0.4% m/m (-0.5% m/m the prior month).
• The yearly trend was flat (0.1% y/y the prior month), and core inflation was up by 0.4% y/y (0.5% y/y the prior month).

UK: Services PMI (Nov.) 51.3 vs. 50.5 expected (prior: 52.3)

• Final data confirmed a decline over the month, but the pace was less pronounced. Opinions deteriorated on domestic demand (ahead of changes in the Autumn budget), and exports remained weak.
• Employment deteriorated; costs continued to rise (payrolls, raw materials), while selling prices did not change significantly, putting downward pressure on margins.

Turkey: CPI (Nov.) 0.87% m/m vs. 1.35% expected (prior: 2.55%)

• Monthly inflation moderated from the prior month; however, monthly increases were sustained in some sectors: alcohol, housing, transport, and leisure.
• The yearly trend declined from 32.87% y/y the prior month to 31.07% y/y, and from 32.05% y/y to 31.65% y/y for core inflation.

Turkey: PPI (Nov.) 0.84% m/m (prior: 1.63%)

• The yearly trend increased slightly from 27% y/y the prior month to 27.23% y/y.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.4% vs 6.3% expected (prior: 6.4% revised from 6.3%)

• With slightly upward revisions to prior month data, unemployment ratio remained unchanged over the month.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Nov.): 2.2% y/y vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Preliminary data for prices were down by 0.3% m/m as expected and core inflation down by 0.5% m/m over the month.
• Prices of goods (-0.1% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month) and services (-0.8% m/m after 0.1% m/m) were responsible for the monthly contraction in prices, while energy prices have rebounded, up by 0.9% m/m and food remained on a stable monthly rise (up by 0.2% m/m).
• Yearly trend has increased for headline inflation and services (3.5% y/y after 3.4% y/y prior month); trend was less favorable on energy prices (-0.5% y/y after -0.9% y/y prior month); food prices remained on a stable trend by 2.5% y/y as well as good prices up by 0.6% y/y.

Italy: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.0% vs 6.1% expected (prior: 6.2% revised from 6.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month (-59 k).

Italy: PPI (Oct.): -0.4% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

• Yearly trend has declined to 0.2% y/y after 1.5% y/y prior month.

UK: Nationwide house prices (Nov.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)

• Prices have slightly increased despite uncertainties from budget and rises in taxes on properties.
• Yearly trend was up by 1.8% y/y after 2.4% y/y prior month.