Atualização macro diária
sexta-feira, março 13
US inflation held steady in January while consumer confidence slipped
US: Core PCE deflator (Jan): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)
- The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge still points to sticky prices. In January, core PCE quickened to 3.1% y/y from 3.0%, matching forecasts and ensuring a close look from the FOMC next week.
- Services drove the gain: the "supercore" measure, core services excluding housing, rose 0.4% m/m, up from 0.3%, with healthcare leading the advance.
- The print predates the recent surge in energy costs and could face upside risks in the future.
US: Personal income (Jan): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Consumer demand kept its December rhythm in January, with spending tilting further from goods to services.
- Personal spending held steady at 0.4% m/m, while real spending eked out a modest 0.1% gain.
- Higher energy costs will weigh on real spending, though tax refunds and wage growth should offer some support; even so, a fragile labor market remains a risk to the outlook.
US: GDP (4Q S): 0.7% q/q vs 1.4% expected (prior: 4.4%)
- The BEA now reckons the government shutdown bit harder than first thought. Fourth-quarter growth was revised down to a 0.7% q/q annualized rate from 1.4%.
- Consumer, business and government outlays, as well as exports, were all marked lower. Even so, the underlying demand gauge held up relatively well.
US: Durable goods orders (Jan P): 0.0% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -1.4%)
- Durable-goods orders were flat in January, disappointing expectations. Excluding transportation, a cleaner read on underlying activity, new orders rose 0.4% m/m, down from an upwardly revised 1.3%.
- Core capital-goods orders (nondefense, ex-aircraft) were likewise flat, while core shipments, that feeds into GDP, slipped 0.1% m/m, versus 1.0% previously and well below the 0.4% forecast.
- Even so, momentum remains positive on a year-on-year basis for both core orders and shipments.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Mar P): 55.5 vs 54.8 expected (prior: 56.6)
- The Iran conflict has barely dented American consumer sentiment, at least judging by inflation expectations.
- Though the headline index fell by less than forecast, short‑term inflation expectations held at 3.4%, defying predictions of a rise to 3.7%.
- The current-conditions gauge climbed to a five‑month high (55.5), while the expectations index slipped to its lowest since November (54.1).
- Looking ahead, sentiment could yet buckle under higher fuel prices linked to the Israel–US tensions and a still‑fragile labor market.
US: JOLTS Job Openings (Jan): 6946k vs 6750k expected (prior: 6550k revised from 6542k)
- America’s JOLTS data showed a tick-up in job openings. Even so, caution is in order as response rates remain weak, clouding the signal. Layoffs edged down from 1.1% to 1.0%, while the hiring rate held steady.
Eurozone: Industrial production (Jan): -1.5% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -1.4%)
- Eurozone industrial output fell 1.5% m/m in January, wrong-footing expectations of a 0.6% rebound, though December was revised up to -0.6% from -1.4%.
- Germany (-1.3%), Italy (-0.6%) and Spain (-0.5%) all slipped; France rose 0.5%. A 9.8% plunge in Ireland, often volatile due to multinationals, amplified the drag.
- February’s PMI hinted at stabilization, but it predates the latest flare-up involving Iran and higher energy costs. With manufacturers already flagging rising inputs, commodities, transport and wages, next week’s PMI prints will be important to monitor.
UK: GDP (Jan): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Britain entered 2026 with scant momentum, leaving it more exposed as Middle Eastern tensions rise. The services powerhouse stagnated amid a softening labor market; manufacturing edged up 0.1% m/m (vs. 0.2% expected) and construction 0.2%.
- Looking ahead, PMIs point to a firmer underlying pace (about 1.5% q/q annualized), but a sustained energy-price spike would sap growth.
quinta-feira, março 12
US labor market still in low-hire low-fire equilibrium
US: Initial jobless claims (Mar 7): 213k vs 215k expected (prior: 214k revised from 213k)
- Applications for unemployment benefits were largely unchanged from the prior week, while continuing claims drifted down to 1850k for the week ending February 28, from a slightly revised 1871k the week prior.
- Claims remain consistent with a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium despite the February decline in payrolls.
- Previous labor indicators, such as lower job-creation plans among small business owners and the February jobs report, show that this equilibrium remains fragile.
US: Trade balance (Jan): -54.5 bn USD vs -66.0 bn expected (prior: -72.9 bn revised from -70.3 bn)
- America’s trade gap narrowed in January as exports jumped 5.5%, led by shipments of non-monetary gold, other precious metals, computers and aircraft. Imports slipped 0.7%, weighed down by a drop in pharmaceuticals.
US: Housing starts (Jan): 1487k vs 1341k expected (prior: 1871k revised from 1404k)
- January housing starts beat expectations despite foul weather, but the details point to softness ahead.
- The gain was driven by multifamily projects, not single-family homes, the segment that matters most for ownership and affordability.
- Permits fell across most regions and for all housing types, and with inventories bloated at single-family builders, residential construction still faces stiff headwinds.
quarta-feira, março 11
US inflation in line with expectations, showing a stable yearly trend
US: CPI (Feb.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Inflation was in line with consensus expectations and has shown limited monthly pressures across sectors.
- Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m as expected and as seen the prior month.
- Prices of food were up by 0.4% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month), and energy up by 0.6% m/m after -1.5% m/m prior month); the rises in energy prices were due to fuel oil (11% m/m) and gasoline (+0.8% m/m).
- Good prices were up by 0.1% m/m (0% m/m prior month); just a few sectors have shown monthly rises probably due to tariffs (appliances, apparels), but balanced by flat prices of new cars and another decline in used cars (-0.4% m/m).
- Services were up by 0.3% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month); shelter costs remained moderate (0.2% m/m as seen prior month); prices were up for hospitals and airfares but balanced by moderate rises or some decline in other sectors.
- Yearly trend remained unchanged from the prior month for both headline inflation (2.4% y/y) and core inflation (2.5% y/y).
Germany: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Final data have confirmed a monthly rebound in prices; this move was driven by higher prices of clothes (1.6% m/m), rising oil-petrol prices (1.1% m/m) and firmer prices for communication and leisure goods; on the opposite, household equipment prices were down over the month.
- Yearly trend came marginally lower, from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.0% y/y.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (Jan.): 4% y/y (prior: 2.8% revised from 2.9%)
- Real sales were up by 0.1% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month.
- Monthly picture was mixed as sales were stronger for food, personal goods and online sales, while they declined for household goods and health sectors.
terça-feira, março 10
Sentiment among US small businesses fell slightly in February
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Feb): 98.8 vs 99.6 expected (prior: 99.3)
- Sentiment among US small businesses fell slightly for a second consecutive month, partly reversing the positive trend seen at the end of last year, but remains broadly stable by recent standards.
- Owners are increasingly worried about the outlook for sales and the economy, with the optimism index slipping. Pricing power is fading as the pace of price increases continues to weaken.
- The survey was conducted throughout February and does not yet incorporate the surge in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.
- Looking ahead, a larger share of owners may raise selling prices to pass through higher input costs.
US: Existing home sales (Feb): 4.09M vs 3.88M expected (prior: 4.02M revised from 3.91M)
- Sales of previously owned American homes beat expectations in February, lifted by a fleeting improvement in affordability as mortgage rates dipped to a 3-year low of 6.09%, nudging more buyers to close deals.
- Yet the wider housing market remains subdued, with activity still far shy of its pre-pandemic cadence of roughly 5m-6m annualized sales, and a durable recovery likely contingent on steadier rate relief and more supply.
Germany: Trade Balance (Jan): 21.2bn EUR vs 15.4bn expected (prior: 17.4bn revised from 17.1bn)
- Germany’s trade surplus widened sharply as imports fell 5.9% m/m, outpacing a 2.3% drop in exports.
- The slump in shipments was concentrated in Europe: exports to EU partners fell 4.8%, including a 5.7% decline to the euro area and a 2.7% drop to non-euro EU members.
- Beyond Europe, the picture was mixed. Exports to third countries edged up 1%, buoyed by an 11.7% jump in sales to the United States, Germany’s largest market. By contrast, exports to the United Kingdom slipped 2.6%, shipments to China tumbled 13.2%, and sales to Russia fell 5.9%.
segunda-feira, março 09
German industrial production dipped in January
Germany: Industrial production (Jan): -0.5% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: -1.0% revised from -1.9%)
- Germany’s industry stumbled in January, dimming hopes of a quick rebound despite February’s uptick in the PMI.
- Manufacturing output fell 2.4% m/m (sa), partly offset by a 2.9% rise in construction and an 11.8% jump in energy.
- Factory orders plunged 11.1% m/m, but excluding volatile bulk orders they slipped just 0.4%, suggesting the underlying trend remains steadier than the headline.
- If energy prices keep climbing, input costs will rise further, threatening production and souring manufacturing sentiment.