Atualização macro diária

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Jul): 7673k vs 8100k expected (prior: 7910k revised from 8184k)

• U.S. job openings have dropped to their lowest level since January 2021, while layoffs have increased, aligning with other indicators of weakening demand for workers.
• This decline in openings has sparked concerns among Federal Reserve officials, as recent data points to a slowing labor market.
• Another weak employment report, expected on Friday, could lead to a larger-than-anticipated rate cut.
• Notable decreases in job openings were seen in health care and social assistance (-187,000), state and local government excluding education (-101,000), and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-88,000). However, job openings rose in professional and business services (+178,000) and the federal government (+28,000).

US: Factory orders (Jul): 5.0% m/m vs 4.8% expected (prior: -3.3%)

• New orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased by 5% month-over-month to $592.1 bn, bouncing back from a 3.3% decline in the previous month and surpassing market expectations of a 4.7% rise.
• Orders for durable goods surged by 9.8%, largely driven by a 34.7% jump in transportation equipment. Meanwhile, non-durable goods orders rose by 0.8%. Excluding the transportation sector, factory orders showed a more modest increase of 0.4%.

US: Trade balance (Jul): -78.8 bn USD vs -79.0 bn expected (prior: .73.0 bn revised from -73.1 bn)

• Exports in the U.S. rose by 0.5% to reach a record high of $266.6 bn, driven by gains in semiconductors, government goods, and financial services. However, there was a decline in exports of passenger cars and gem diamonds.
• At the same time, imports surged by 2.1% to $345.4 bn, the highest level since March 2022, fueled by increased purchases of computer accessories, nonmonetary gold, finished metal shapes, intellectual property charges, and transportation services.

Eurozone: PPI (Jul): 0.8% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

• Prices in the Eurozone rose by 0.8% compared to the previous month, marking the sharpest increase since December 2022. This follows a revised 0.6% rise in June and significantly surpasses market expectations of a 0.3% increase.
• The main driver of the surge was energy prices, which jumped by 2.8%, up from 1.8% in June. Meanwhile, costs for intermediate, durable, and non-durable goods dipped by 0.1%, and prices for capital goods remained unchanged. Excluding energy, producer prices declined by 0.1%.
• Among major economies, prices increased modestly in Germany and France (both up 0.2%) but surged in Italy (2%) and Spain (1.9%). On a yearly basis, PPI fell by 2.1%, improving from a 3.3% drop in June.

Eurozone: PMI Services (Aug F): 52.9 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Despite a downward revision from the flash estimate of 53.3 to 52.9, the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI remains above the 50-mark, signaling expansion for the seventh consecutive month.
• Eurozone composite has been revised downward from 51.1 to 51.0.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 47.9 vs 48 expected (prior: 49.6)

• Final data were just below the first estimates (index at 48) and confirmed the decline from the prior month.
• New orders were lower than prior month and sentiment has also decreased on employment.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (Aug.): 47.2 vs 47.5 expected (prior: 46.8)

• Business sentiment was slightly higher than the prior month but remained below expectations.
• Details offered a mixed and contrasted picture; sentiment has increased on backlog of orders and employment, but it has decreased on production, new orders, and export orders.
• Prices paid were on the rise.
• ISM and PMI manufacturing both pointed towards a weak and fragile activity contrary to services and consumer sectors.

 

Switzerland: CPI (Aug.): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices were volatile by sector; on the rise, prices of clothes, housing, and education; on the fall: transport, energy, and household goods. Core inflation was flat over the month after -0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from1.3% y/y prior month to 1.1%y/y. Core inflation remained stable at 1.4% y/y.
• This could open the window to further decline in rates given the CHF strength, but core inflation stayed stable, and this could limit the margin of manoeuvre of the SNB.

 

Switzerland: GDP (Q2-24): 0.7% q/q vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• The second estimates of GDP came higher but due to impact of sports; excluding sport impacts, GDP was up by 0.5% in Q2 after 0.3% in Q1.
• By sector, activity was sustained in chemicals and pharma in Q2, and also in hotel-tourism.
• By expenditure, consumption was up by 0.3% q/q (0.5% in Q1), and net trade was a positive contributor to Q2 GDP; on the opposite, investment was down by 1.4% q/q and construction just up by 0.5% q/q.

 

Brazil: GDP (Q2-24): 1.4% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.8%)

• Growth has accelerated over the quarter. All sectors have rebounded in Q2; investment was up by 2.1% q/q after 3.8% in Q1-24.

 

Turkey: CPI (Aug.): 2.47% m/m vs 2.29% expected (prior: 3.23%)

• Prices have accelerated over the month for housing, education, and culture.
• Yearly trend has declined from 60.23% y/y the prior month to 51.56% y/y.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 45.8 vs 45.6 expected (prior: 45.8)

• Final PMI has shown a stabilisation at low level compared to the fall initially estimated.
• But the outlook remains weak: new orders, exports and production have fallen, while the rise in inventories was limited by lower purchases.
• Costs were on the rise due to transport and final prices have increased even at moderate pace; employment came lower than the previous month.
• By country, confidence was depressed in France and Germany (but slightly less negative than in the first estimate), confidence has increased in Italy (49.4 after 47.4 the previous month), while it has slightly decreased in Spain (from 51 to 50.5).
• Manufacturing sector remained weak and fragile due to France and Germany.

 

UK: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 52.5 as expected (prior: 52.1)

• Business sentiment has been confirmed on the rise from the prior month, and the index reached a 26-month high.
• Production, domestic orders, and employment were on the rise, while export orders remained weak.
• Costs were on the rise (energy, metals, and other raw materials) leading to some rise in final prices.

 

Germany: Retail sales YoY (May): -1.1% y/y vs -0.7% expected (prior: 3.9% revised from 1.8%)

 

Italy: PPI (July): 2% m/m (prior: 1%)

• Prices of energy, electricity and gas have sharply rebounded over the month.
• Yearly trend has regained from -3.5% y/y prior month to -1.6% y/y.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 47.8 vs 47.4 expected (prior: 47.3)

• Business confidence has increased thanks to a gain in opinions on new orders.

 

Norway: PMI (Aug.): 52.1 (prior: 59.8 revised from 56.9)

• A large fall in new orders has driven business confidence lower.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 52.7 vs 50 expected (prior: 49.2)

• Business confidence has regained on higher production, orders, and exports.
• Sentiment on employment has decreased over the month.

 

Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 49 vs 43.8 expected (prior: 43.5)

• A strong rebound in business confidence due to higher production, orders; prices were also on the rise while employment has decreased.
• Separately, PMI services has rebounded from 44.7 prior month to 52.9 with higher activity and orders; prices were also on the rise.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 47.8 (prior: 47.2)

• Business confidence has regained on higher new orders.

 

Turkey: GDP (Q2-24): 0.1% q/q vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 2.4%)

• Activity has slowed down in Q2, and prior quarter data were revised down; nevertheless, activity remained on positive trend against expectations.
• Private and public consumption were mildly positive in Q2, versus a sharp fall in capex and exports.

US: Personal income (July): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Wages was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
• Disposable income was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m, and in real terms was up by 0.1% m/m the two months.
• Wages in manufacturing sector were down by 0.2% (0.4% m/m prior month), up by 0.4% m/m in services (0.1% m/m prior month) and also up by 0.4% m/m in the public sector (0.5% m/m the prior month).

US: Personal spending (July): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Spending remained sustained. Purchases of goods have rebounded (up by 0.71% m/m, driven by durable goods up by 1.3% m/m; services were up by regular 0.45% m/m in June and July.
• Saving ratio has decreased from 3.1% the prior month to 2.9%.

US: Core PCE deflator (July): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Data were in line with expectations. Unchanged yearly trend at 2.6% y/y.
• Prices of goods have contracted over the month, while prices of services were up by 0.24% m/m.

US: Chicago PMI (Aug.): 46.1 vs 44.8 expected (prior: 45.3)

• Sentiment has regained from low level past month; confidence remained highly volatile in this region (autos, aircraft sectors).
• Sentiment was less negative on new orders and production but declined on employment; prices paid have increased.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug.): 67.9 vs 68.1 expected (prior: 66.4)

• Final data have confirmed consumer confidence has regained from the prior month.
• Sentiment on current situation has decreased from the prior month on economic situation. Expectations have regained on improving future economy, financial situation, and lower interest rates.
• Households remained cautious on willingness to buy autos, houses and large items compared to prior month.
• Inflation expectations at 12M have marginally decreased from 2.9% y/y the prior month to 2.8%y/y; expectations at 5-10y remained stable at 3.0% y/y.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Aug.): 2.2% y/y as expected (prior: 2.6%)

• According to first estimates, prices were up by 0.2% m/m after 0% the prior month, and core inflation up by 0.3% m/m after -0.2% m/m.
• Prices of energy were down by 1% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month); prices of goods were up by 0.3% m/m (-2.6% m/m in July) and services up by 0.4% m/m (1.2% prior month).
• Prices of services remained sustained, up by 4.2% y/y after 4% y/y prior month.
• Inflation data should validate ongoing cut from the ECB, but resilient prices of services argue in favour of gradual easing.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (July): 6.4% vs 6.5% expected (prior: 6.5%)

• Unemployed has decreased further.

France: Consumer spending (July): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.5%)

• Purchases of food and energy (fuels-oil) have rebounded over the month, while sales of autos and clothes were sharply down over the month.

France: CPI (Aug.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• First estimates have shown reacceleration in monthly trend; prices of energy were down by 1.2% m/m, but food and manufactured good prices (1.4% m/m) have regained over the month; prices of services were up by 0.6% m/m after 1.2% m/m prior month (up by 3.1% y/y).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.7% y/y to 2.2% y/y.

France: Producer Prices (July): 0.2% m/m (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

• PPI were down by 5.4% y/y after -5.9% y/y prior month.

France: GDP (Q2-24): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• GDP has been revised lower for Q2-24.
• Contribution by sector has changed with notably a sharp fall in residential housing and a contraction of corporate investment; public and private consumption was a bit firmer than estimated previously.
• Growth trend would have probably benefited from Olympic Games, but downside risks could surface at year end, while no new Prime Minister has still been named.

Germany: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6% as expected (prior: 6%)

• Unemployed has increased by 2 k over the month after 17 k the prior month.

Italy: Unemployment rate (July): 6.5% vs 7% expected (prior: 6.9% revised from 7%)

• Unemployed has sharply decreased over the month.

Italy: CPI (Aug.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.8%)

• Prices have declined for clothes, household goods and communication over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.6% y/y prior month to 1.3% y/y.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 96.1 vs 99 expected (prior: 98.9)

• Confidence has decreased on both current and future financial situation and economic outlook.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Aug.): 87.1 vs 87 expected (prior: 87.6)

• Business confidence has decreased from the prior month on decreasing orders (both domestic and foreign orders), and economic outlook.

Spain: Retail sales (real) (July): 1% y/y vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

• Sales were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.

Poland: CPI (Aug.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 1.4%)

• Prices of food and fuels have declined over the month.
• Yearly trend has increased marginally from 4.2% y/y prior month to 4.3% y/y.

Norway: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 2% vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

Switzerland: KOF (Aug.): 101.6 vs 100.6 expected (prior: 100.6 revised from 101)

• Business sentiment has regained but it remained below levels seen in June at 102.7.

UK: M4 (July): 2.1% y/y (prior: 1.0%)

• M4 lending was up by 1.4% y/y after 1.1% y/y the prior month; credits to consumers and for housing have increased while trend remained sluggish for corporate, except for large ones.

UK: Nationwide house prices (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Prices were up by 2.4% y/y after 2.1% y/y the prior month.

Brazil: Unemployment rate (July): 6.8% as expected (prior: 6.9%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.