Atualização macro diária

Eurozone: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

• Sales have contracted further, and prior month data were revised lower.
• Food sales turned flat over the month (0.4% m/m prior month) while non-food, auto fuel and special stores sales remained in modest contraction.
• Yearly trend remained positive (1.0% y/y), but it has weakened over the past quarters.

UK: BoE left key rates unchanged at 4.0%.

• The committee was highly divided with 4 votes in favor of a cut and 5 (including Governor Bailey) for no change.
• Risks on the outlook were more balanced, but the Committee preferred to wait for more data and probably the future decisions about the fiscal consolidation before decreasing rates further.
• Debate will continue about risks attached to future trend in inflation and labor and final decisions in Dec. meeting will depend on economic situation at year end.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Oct.): 3% as expected (prior: 3%)

• Ratio remained stable but unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

Sweden: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Flash estimates pointed to sustained monthly rise and resilient inflation trend.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 3.1% y/y over the month, but core inflation has accelerated from 2.7% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.

Germany: Industrial production (Sept.): 1.3% m/m vs 3.0% expected (prior: -3.7% revised from -4.3%)

• Industrial production has rebounded over the month, but less than expected by consensus.
• The rebound was driven by manufacturing: chemical, computer and IT and auto sectors were responsible for the positive reversal from the prior month.
• Activity was also strong in energy but weakened for construction over the month.

Spain: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded thanks to consumer goods and intermediate goods sectors over the month.

US: ADP Employment change (Oct.): 42k vs 30k expected (prior: -29k revised from -32k)

• Job creations have rebounded after a large fall the prior month; nevertheless, the picture is contrasted by sector.
• Jobs have contracted further in small firms (-10 k after -40 k prior month) and in medium-sized firms (-21 k after -20 k). Creations were higher in large firms, up by 73 k after 33 k the prior month.
• By sector, creations turned positive in all sectors, but services have strongly reversed (33 k after -28 k prior month); in good sector, creations were up by 9 k after -3 K.
• Wage growth remained sustained and stable up by 4.5% y/y (as seen prior month) and up by 6.7% for job-changers.
• The slower trend in place in labor and the more volatile data seen in recent months still justify the Fed to continue its pre-emptive cuts and its risk-management approach leading to a less restrictive policy.

US: Services PMI (Oct.): 54.8 vs 55.2 expected (prior: 54.2)

• Final data have increased from the prior month but at a slower pace than expected in initial data.
• Views were more constructive on new demand from the prior month and new business orders have increased as well as employment.
• A limited rise in prices was due to higher competition.

US: ISM Services (Oct.): 52.4 vs 50.8 expected (prior: 50)

• Sentiment in services has bottomed out; main components were on the rise over the month: new demand, employment and new export orders too; this latest component has strongly regained after 3 months of regular fall.
• Both ISM and PMI indices both delivered the same constructive message about services.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Oct.): 53 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 51.3)

• Sentiment in services has increased over the month more than expected; the move was supported by higher new business (index at 52.8 after 51.1), mainly driven by firmer domestic demand, and a large rebound in the German index (total index at 54.6 after 51.5 prior month; new business up to 53.4 after 49.1).
• Except France (index falling from 48.5 to 48), sentiment has improved in all other countries, the index being well above the 50 level across members.
• Employment was globally positively oriented while costs and prices remained on the rise.

France: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.7%)

• Production was higher than expected in the manufacturing sector due to a large rebound in the transport (5.5% m/m after -4.3% m/m prior month) and auto sectors (2.7% m/after -1.9% m/m).
• Production remained highly volatile over past months and was only up by 1%y/y but up by 2.5% ytd.

Eurozone: PPI (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.3%)

• Prices have contracted further over the month due to falling prices of energy (-0.2% m/m), while prices of durable goods were up by 0.3% m/m.
• Yearly trend has increased from -0.6% y/y prior month to -0.2% y/y.

Germany: Factory orders (Sept.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.8%)

• Orders have strongly rebounded over the month; the rebound was fuelled by a large rise in consumer goods and in intermediate goods too.
• Foreign orders have strongly rebounded (3.5% m/m), the first month since May, while domestic orders were down by 2.5% m/m.
• Orders for consumer goods have rebounded on both domestic and foreign orders.
• After rebuilding business confidence, first signs of a firmer activity in Germany.

UK: Services PMI (Oct.): 52.3 vs 51.1 expected (prior: 50.8)

• Business sentiment in services has strongly rebounded from the prior month.
• Index for new business has jumped to 53 from 50.4 prior month, but demand was mainly domestically driven while foreign demand remained weak.
• Costs remained high but final prices have just slowly increased over the month.

Brazil: PMI Services (Oct.): 47.7 (prior: 46.3)

• Sentiment has improved on new business and employment over the month.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 52.5 vs 52.2 expected (prior: 52)

• Final data (small firms and domestic oriented) were more positive on business confidence from the prior month, but details offered mixed picture and some vulnerabilities.
• Opinions have increased on production and new orders; nevertheless, inventories were on a strong rise and export orders have decreased from the prior month due to uncertainties on trade and tariffs.
• Some firms expected positive impact from re-onshoring and higher investment; nevertheless, global excess capacities have slowed down employment.
• Prices remained on the rise.

US: ISM Manufacturing (Oct.): 48.7 vs 49.5 expected (prior: 49.1)

• Business sentiment (ISM: large firms and export oriented) has decreased from the prior month due to weakening views on production and lower inventories.
• On the opposite, sentiment has increased on new orders, backlog of orders, export orders and employment.
• Prices paid have decreased over the month.
• Except the index related to supply delivery and prices paid, all index for major components remained or were back below the 50 level.
• Once again, the PMI was better than the ISM, pointing to more solid domestic demand than global and foreign activity.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 50 as expected (prior: 49.8)

• Business sentiment has slightly increased over the month on final data.
• The picture remained mixed: sentiment has improved on production and new orders (index at 50 after 49.2 prior month), but opinions have decreased on new export orders, and inventories remained on a decreasing process as future production looks uncertain.
• Views on employment have deteriorated further as firms faced cut costing; final prices have shown limited rise over the month.
• The picture remained contrasted among countries; business sentiment has significantly increased on Greece and Spain, but only modestly for Germany, France and Italy.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 49.7 vs 49.6 expected (prior: 46.2)

• Business confidence has regained over the month, thanks to a rebound in production and less negative views on orders.
• Nevertheless, uncertainties remained elevated; views on new exports orders regained but the index remained below 50 and the rebound in production was mainly due to specific rebound in the auto sector and global demand remained weak.
• Employment remained on a negative trend even it turned less negative than prior months.
• Pressures have remained on prices of purchases but were only partly passed to final clients.
• Firms still mentioned supply chain constraints.

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 48.8 vs 48.6 expected (prior: 48)

• Business confidence has regularly regained since the low seen in June 2025.
• Views on new orders have improved but the related index remained below the 50 level.

Norway: PMI (Oct.): 47.7 (prior: 49.7 revised from 49.9)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; new orders index has declined from 49.2 prior month to 47.6.

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 55.1 vs 55.5 expected (prior: 55.6)

• Business sentiment has marginally decreased over the month.
• Views have decreased on domestic orders and employment, but they increased for production, foreign orders and prices.

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 48.2 vs 47.6 expected (prior: 46.3)

• Business sentiment has regained over the prior month; the trend remained constructive, but the index looks volatile and remained below 50.
• Views have improved for orders, inventories and employment, while they have marginally decreased on production.
• Prices were on the rise over the month.
• Separately, PMI services have decreased from 51.3 prior month to 47.8; except prices on the rise, main components have decreased over the month such as activity, new orders and employment.

Switzerland: CPI (Oct.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices were down for goods (-0.2% m/m) and down for services (-0.3% m/m); energy prices were also down over the month.
• In details, prices were down for food, household furniture, transport and leisure, while they continued to rebound for clothes (1.8% m/m after 1.6% m/m prior month). Core inflation was down by 0.2% m/m as seen the prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 0.2% y/y prior month to 0.1% y/y; main negative contribution came from imported goods (-1.3% y/y), total goods (-1.6%y/y), energy (-3.3% y/y), while trend in services was up by 1.1% y/y. Core inflation has declined from 0.8% y/y prior month to 0.5% y/y.

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 48.2 (prior: 46.5)

• Opinions were more positive on production but decreased on employment.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 46.5 (prior: 46.7)

• Business sentiment has eroded over the month.
• Sentiment on new orders have improved from the prior month but the index remained below 50 and foreign demand has weakened. Opinions have decreased on production and employment over the month.
• The global PMI index has decreased after a rebound in Aug., and it was back to the low levels seen this year.

Turkey: CPI (Oct.): 2.55% m/m vs 2.8% expected (prior: 3.23%)

• Inflation has moderated compared to past month change, but some sectors still offered high monthly changes: food, clothes, utilities and furniture.
• Yearly trend has declined from 33.29% y/y the prior month to 32.87% y/y and from 32.54% y/y on core inflation to 32.05% y/y. Yearly trend in prices for food, education and utilities remained well above the total yearly CPI trend.

US: Chicago PMI (Oct.): 43.8 vs 42.3 expected (prior: 40.6)

• Business confidence has regained from the prior month, but the index remained below 50.
• Views were less negative on production, new orders and employment; prices paid were on the rise.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Oct.): 2.1% y/y as expected (prior: 2.2%)

• According to flash estimate, inflation was up 0.2% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
• By sector, energy prices have decreased by 0.2% m/m while food prices were up by 0.2% m/m and services up by 0.1% m/m; prices of goods have rebounded by 0.5% m/m after 2.2% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated for services at 3.4% y/y (3.2% y/y prior month), while energy has contracted further (-1% y/y after -0.4% y/y); trend in food has declined (2.5% y/y after 3.0% y/y prior month) as well as in goods (0.6% y/y after 0.8% y/y).

France: CPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -1.1%)

• Preliminary inflation stayed moderate; prices of food and energy have decreased over the month, while services were modestly up (0.2% m/m after -1.9% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.1% y/y prior month to 0.9%; services remained on a stable trend, up by 2.4% y/y.

Germany: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.2%)

• Sales have regained but remained highly volatile each month.
• The rebound was driven by IT goods and internet sales, while a decline was seen for food, furniture and pharma products.

Italy: CPI (Oct.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1.3%)

• Inflation declined on lower food prices; yearly trend has declined thanks to base effects to 1.3% y/y after 1.8% y/y prior month.
• Core inflation has also declined from 2.1% y/y to 1.9% y/y.

UK: Nationwide house prices (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Yearly trend has increased by 2.4% y/y after 2.2% y/y the prior month. Despite weakening economy, housing prices remained resilient.

Poland: CPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0%)

• Preliminary data have shown a rebound in fuel prices (1% m/m after -0.4% m/m the prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.9% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.

Norway: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 2.2% vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.1%)