Atualização macro diária

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Jul): 7181k vs 7380k expected (prior: 7357k revised from 7437k)

• US job openings dropped to a 10-month low, signaling a cooling labor market and supporting a 25 bp rate cut in September.
• The decline, led by healthcare, retail, and leisure sectors, suggests companies are growing cautious amid uncertainty over Trump’s trade policies.
• The quits rate held steady at 2%.

 

US: Factory orders (Jul): -1.3% m/m as expected (prior: -4.8%)

• Factory orders fell, driven by a sharp 9.5% drop in transportation equipment. Nondefense aircraft and parts plunged 32.7%, as foreign buyers likely slowed purchases after April's pre-tariff surge.

 

US: Durable goods orders (Jul F): -2.8% m/m as expected (prior: -2.8%)

• Durable goods orders continued to decline, reflecting prolonged weakness after firms rushed imports in May to avoid steep US tariffs. Excluding transportation, orders were slightly revised down from 1.1% to 1.0%.

 

Eurozone: PPI (Jul): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Industrial prices climbed unexpectedly in July, fueled by a 1.5% rebound in energy costs after a 3.3% drop in June. Durable consumer goods rose 0.2% (up from 0.1%), while capital goods held steady with a 0.1% increase.

 

UK: Services PMI (Aug F): 54.2 vs 53.6 expected (prior: 51.8)

• UK Services PMI was revised upward. The sector showed solid output growth after a sluggish Q2 2025, with new business surging at its fastest pace since September 2024, driven by robust domestic and international demand.
• However, employment fell for the 11th straight month.
• Inflation pressures intensified, with input costs hitting a three-month high and output prices reaching their highest since April.
• Composite PMI was revised upward from 53.0 to 53.5.

 

Eurozone: Services PMI (Aug F): 50.5 vs 50.7 expected (prior: 51.0)

• Final PMI data shows that the bloc's services sector saw only marginal output growth, hindered by stagnant new orders. Yet, the labor market showed resilience, with job creation reaching its fastest pace since April.
• Inflationary pressures mounted, as input costs hit a three-month high and output prices rose at their quickest rate since March. Business confidence dipped slightly, staying below its long-term average.
• While growth remains modest, the data highlights the euro area's underlying economic resilience.
• Spain led the bloc's growth with a services PMI of 53.2, followed by Italy at 51.5. Germany's services PMI was revised down to 49.3 from 50.1, while France remained in contraction at 49.8, despite hitting a 12-month high.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 53 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 49.8)

• Final index has increased slightly less than in the first estimate but remained above the 50 level.
• Opinions have improved on production, orders and inventory rebuilding over the month; on the negative side, input costs and selling prices have increased a lot related to tariffs.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (Aug.): 48.7 vs 49 expected (prior: 48)

• The index has regained from the prior month, but slightly less than the consensus.
• Details offered a mixed picture: rising opinions on new orders, exports, inventories and employment; but sentiment has decreased on production and backlog of orders.
• On a more positive note, prices paid came lower than the prior month.
• The two indices PMI-ISM have increased over the month, but were not exactly on the same trend, the PMI index, being more domestic oriented, on a firmer trend.

 

US: Construction spending (July): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4%)

• Residential construction was up by 0.1% m/m, while non-residential construction was down by 0.2% m/m.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Aug.): 2.1% y/y as expected (prior: 2.0%)

• Flash estimate has pointed to a 0.2% m/m inflation change after flat prices in July.
• Energy prices were back under contraction: -0.6% m/m (1.1% m/m prior month) and remained as of the major negative contributor to yearly trend (-1.9% y/y).
• Prices of food were flat over the month, goods up by 0.3% m/m (-2.4% m/m prior month) and services up by 0.3% (1.1% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend remained quite stable for services (3.1% y/y), food (3.2% y/y) and goods (0.8% y/y); core inflation was estimated being up by 2.3% y/y as seen the prior month.
• Nothing here for the ECB to change a status quo on rates.

 

Italy: PPI (July): 0.6% m/m (prior: 2.2%)

• Yearly trend has declined from 3.9% y/y to 2.4% y/y.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 50.7 vs 50.5 expected (prior: 49.8)

• Final data were slightly better than the first estimate and the index is above the 50 level.
• The monthly rebound was more pronounced in France (index up from 48.2 prior month to 50.4) and in Spain (from 51.9 to 54.3). Index is above 50 for France, Italy and Spain but it remained just below 50 in Germany (49.8), with only moderate rise from 49.1.
• Index for new orders has improved in all countries (eurozone from 49.3 to 50.8), but this index remained below 50 in France (47.6). Production has regained thanks to firmer domestic demand while export orders remained weak.
• Input costs have shown a marginal rise while discounts on final prices have been seen.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (June): 6.2% as expected (prior: 6.3% revised from 6.2%)

• Unemployed remained on a decreasing trend.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (July): 6% (prior: 6.2% revised from 6.3%)

• After a large rebound in May (6.5% unemployment ratio), unemployed has decreased over the past two months.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 46.6 vs 46.8 expected (prior: 45.9)

• Business confidence has regained but the index stayed below 50; index for new orders has regained from 43.3 prior month to 44.7, still well below 50.

 

Norway: PMI (Aug.): 49.6 (prior: 51.1 revised from 50.9)

• Business confidence has passed below the 50 over the month; index for new orders has decreased from 50.4 prior month to 50.1.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 55.3 (prior: 54.4 revised from 54.2)

• Confidence has regained from the prior month; the improvement was broad-based across components: orders, exports, domestic demand and employment have all improved over the month.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 49 vs 47 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Despite uncertainties on US tariffs, business confidence has improved over the month.
• Opinions have improved on production, orders and inventories but declined for employment; prices were on the rise.
• Separately, PMI services has regained from 41.8 prior month to 43.9; details offered a mixed picture: rising sentiment on new orders and prices but weakening employment.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 47 vs 47.3 expected (prior: 48)

• Final business confidence has shown a deeper fall over the month than in the first estimate.
• The fall was broad-based across major components: falling new orders (index at 43.9 after 47.8), weak domestic demand and falling exports, lower employment; input costs were on the rise and were marginally passed through to final clients.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (Aug.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.6%)

• Yearly trend in prices has declined from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.1% y/y.

 

UK: M4 (July): 2.9% y/y (prior: 3.3%)

• M4 lending remained on stable trend, up by 3% y/y.
• Loans to large firms have slightly accelerated over the month; credit to consumers has also rebounded over the month.
• Number of approved mortgages were up to 65.4 k after 64.6 k the prior month.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 47.3 (prior: 45.9)

• Business confidence has rebounded thanks to higher new orders (index up from 44.8 prior month to 46.9).

 

Turkey: GDP (Q2-25): 1.6% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 1%)

• GDP growth has accelerated in Q2 despite tighter monetary policy. The momentum turned more positive for investment and exports in Q2. 2025 GDP growth should reach a bit more than 3%.

US: Personal income (July): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Wages were up by 0.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month. Wage growth was strong for services (0.9% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month) and in particular wages in the trade sector, up by 1.2% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Real disposable income was up by 0.2% m/m after 0% m/m the prior month.

 

US: Personal spending (July): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

• Purchases of durable goods (autos) were strong, up by 1.9% m/m; purchases of goods were globally up by 0.7% m/m after 0.34% m/m prior month; services were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.38% m/m prior month.
• Saving ratio remained stable at 4.4%.

 

US: Core PCE deflator (July): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Prices of food and energy were down over the month.
• Yearly trend has increased to 2.9% y/y after 2.8% y/y prior month; trend has increased for services (3.6% y/y after 3.5% y/y prior month) and prices for durable goods (1.1% y/y after 0.9% y/y).
• Core PCE data were globally in line with expectations and global scenario remains in favor of inflation trending higher (above 3% y/y) next months.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (July): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Preliminary data pointed to falling global inventories of durable goods (-0.2% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month), but inventories of autos and parts have increased further (0.3% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month).

 

US: Chicago PMI (Aug.): 41.5 vs 46 expected (prior: 47.1)

• Business came well below expectations over the month; opinions have decreased on new orders, production, inventories and employment.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug.): 58.2 vs 58.6 expected (prior: 61.7)

• Final index was lower than the first estimate (58.6) and pointed to deteriorating confidence.
• Sentiment on current conditions has decreased (index from 68 prior month to 61.7), but slightly less decrease than in first estimate.
• Expectations have decreased more: from 57.7 prior month to 55.9 (index at 57.2 in first estimate).
• Opinions have deteriorated on current financial situation and income; expectations have decreased for business expectations, unemployment; willingness to purchase mains items has decreased from the prior month.
• Inflation expectations have increased but less than in first estimate: inflation at 12M from 4.5% prior month to 4.8% (4.9% first estimate); inflation at 5-10y: from 3.4% to 3.5% (3.9% in first estimate).

 

France: Consumer spending (July): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.6%)

• Sales were down for several major sectors; sales were down for energy, clothes and autos, but was up for other durable goods.

 

France: CPI (Aug.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• In preliminary data, prices have rebounded for manufactured goods, up by 1.3% m/m after -2.4% m/m the prior month; prices of food were up by 0.3% m/m and services by 0.2% m/m; energy prices were down by 0.2% m/m after 0.9% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 0.9% y/y prior month to 0.8% y/y.

 

France: Producer Prices (July): 0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Yearly trend was up by 0.4% y/y after 0.3% y/y prior month.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed has surprisingly decreased by 9 k (+10 k expected) after +2 k the prior month.

 

Germany: Retail sales (July): -1.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 1%)

• Sales have reversed in all sectors after the prior month rebound.

 

Germany: CPI (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Preliminary data pointed to moderate inflation over the month; prices of oil, transport and health have decreased over the month, while prices were firmer for food and clothes.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.8% y/y prior month to 2.1% y/y.

 

Italy: CPI (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -1%)

• Yearly trend remained stable at 1.7% y/y; preliminary data pointed to lower contribution of utility to the yearly trend while prices of food and fuels were on the rise.

 

Spain: CPI (Aug.): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Preliminary data pointed to stable trend in yearly inflation, up by 2.7% y/y. A reversal in energy prices contribution (negative base effects) have fuelled the stable yearly trend.

 

Spain: Retail sales (real) (July): 4.7% y/y (prior: 6.2%)

• Over the month, sales were down by 0.4% m/m; all sector except internet sales have contracted over the month.

 

Poland: CPI (Aug.): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to falling prices of food and fuel over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 2.1% (prior: 2.1%)

• Unemployed has declined over the month but the ratio remained stable.

 

Norway: Retail sales (July): 0.6% m/m (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

• Sales were firmer over the month thanks to food, clothes and IT goods.

 

Sweden: GDP (Q2-25): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Domestic activity was strong due to investment and consumption over the quarter.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (July): 0.3% m/m (prior: 2.6% revised from 2.5%)

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 8% (prior: 8.4% revised from 8.6%)

• Unemployed has significantly declined over the month.