Atualização macro diária
New York factory activity surprised to the upside
US: NY Empire manufacturing (Nov.): 18.7 vs 5.8 expected (prior: 10.7)
- Business sentiment has rebounded regarding current conditions, but the 6-month index has decreased (index from 30.3 prior month to 19.1).
- Regarding the current period, sentiment has improved due to gains in new orders, shipments, inventories, and employment, while prices paid were lower than in the prior month.
- The 6-month outlook declined compared to the prior month, but the index remained high. The decrease was attributed to lower orders and shipments, although employment rose, and prices paid showed a moderate decrease.
US: Construction spending (Aug): 0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from -0.1%)
- Construction spending rose in August, driven by residential projects, particularly for home improvements.
- Residential construction increased by 0.8%, compared to a 0.7% rise in the previous period. However, private single-family home construction declined by 0.4%, while multifamily construction increased by 0.2%, and home improvements surged by 2.3%.
- Nonresidential construction declined by 0.2%, matching the 0.2% drop in the prior period. The biggest decline was observed in manufacturing, which fell by 0.9%.
- Overall, the construction sector remains weak, as evidenced by a yearly decline in construction spending of 1.6%.
Italy: CPI (Oct.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 1.3%)
- Prices have declined over the month due to falling prices in housing, transport, communication, leisure, and hotels/restaurants, despite a sharp rebound in clothing prices.
- The yearly trend declined from 1.8% y/y in the prior month to 1.3% y/y.
Switzerland: GDP (Q3-25): -0.5% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Preliminary data pointed to weaker growth than expected by consensus due to high US tariffs in recent months.
- The industry, particularly the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors, has been affected by US trade policy.
- Recent trade agreement with the US should help revive activity at year end.
France and Spain at the extreme opposite of the Eurozone inflation range
France: CPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -1.1%)
- Final data confirmed moderate monthly rise in prices and declining yearly trend.
- Prices have decreased over the month on food and energy, while they were up for clothes (0.7% m/m after 3.3% m/m) and transport (6.2% m/m after -13.5% m/m prior month).
- Yearly trend has declined from 1.1% y/y prior month to 0.8% y/y.
Spain: CPI (Oct.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Final data confirmed the rebound in monthly inflation; prices have rebounded for food and clothes and remained on a sustained monthly trend for housing and education.
- Yearly trend has increased from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y.
Poland: CPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)
- Prices were more sustained over the month for clothes, fuel and education.
- Yearly trend has marginally decreased from 2.9% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 9.3% vs 8.6% expected (prior: 8.8% revised from 8.7%)
- Unemployed has strongly rebounded over the month as labor force has strongly increased.
Modest UK GDP growth in Q3-25
UK: Industrial production (Sept.): -2% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)
- Industrial activity has contracted more than expected; while production of durable was up by 3.7% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month), production of investment goods has decreased by 4.5% m/m (+0.9% m/m prior month).
- Monthly proxy of GDP was down by 0.1% m/m (flat the prior month); services were up by 0.2% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month and construction up by 0.2% m/m after -0.5% prior month.
UK: GDP (Q3-25): 0.1% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Growth has slowed down in Q3. Consumption was up by 0.2%q and public consumption up by 0.3%q; capex was strong, up by 1.8%q after 0.5%q due to ICT, housing and R&D while equipment spending has contracted.
- Exports and imports were both under contraction but net trade contribution to GDP was positive.
- By sector, activity was up in services (0.2%q after 0.4%q) while it declined by 0.5% (-0.8% in Q2) in manufacturing due to disruption in auto production.
Eurozone: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1.2%)
- Energy production was strongly up over the month (1.2% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month).
- Production of consumer goods has contracted for the second month. Industrial activity in Ireland was also traditionally volatile, being down by 9.4% m/m after +9.5% m/m prior month.
France: Unemployment rate (Q3-25): 7.7% vs 7.6% expected (prior: 7.6% revised from 7.5%)
- Unemployment is slightly trending higher.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Oct.): -0.3% m/m (prior: -0.2%)
- Import prices were down by 0.4% m/m (-0.5% m/m prior month) and producer prices down by 0.2% m/m (flat prior month).
- Yearly trend remained stable at -2.7% y/y on imported prices and quite stable at -1.3% y/y after -1.4% y/y on producer prices.
Brazil: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.9%)
- Broad sales remained positive, but several sectors have contracted during the month except health and personal sectors.
Poland: GDP (Q3-25): 0.8% q/q as expected (prior: 0.8%)
- Preliminary data pointed to stable and sustained growth trend.
Poland: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Final data confirmed the monthly rebound in inflation: prices of food, household goods and health care have accelerated over the month. Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend was marginally down on headline (from 3.2% y/y prior month to 3.1% y/y), but core inflation was up from 2.7% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.
German inflation remained above 2% y/y in Oct. at 2.3% y/y.
Germany: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Over the month, prices have rebounded for clothes, oil and transport, while prices of hotels were down over the month.
- Yearly trend has slightly declined from 2.4% y/y the prior month to 2.3% y/y.
Germany: Wholesale price (Oct.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.2%)
- Yearly trend has marginally declined to 1.1% y/y after 1.2% y/y the prior month.
Italy: Industrial production (Sept.): 2.8% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: -2.7% revised from -2.4%)
- A broad-based rebound in activity after the fall seen in Aug.
- Besides the strong rebound in energy, production of capital and intermediate goods was also sustained over the month.
Turkey: Current account (Sept.): 1.11bn USD vs 1.20bn expected (prior: 5.42bn revised from 5.46bn)
- Deficit on goods has increased over the month and surplus on services has decreased.
- Official reserves have declined by USD 8.69 M after a surplus of USD 5.74 M the prior month.
US small-business optimism slightly down
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Oct.): 98.2 vs 98.3 expected (prior: 98.8)
- Small business confidence edged lower in October reflecting softer demand and lingering uncertainty.
- Slightly fewer respondents planned to create new jobs and many are still finding hard to fill openings.
- On a positive note, business owners expect credit conditions to improve and more see this as a good time to expand. Also, fewer owners reported supply-chain disruptions.
- The willingness to raise prices remains above average but is slightly down from September.
Germany: Zew (Nov.): 38.5 vs 41.0 expected (prior: 39.3)
- Current situation: -78.7 vs -78.2 expected (prior: -80.0)
- Investor confidence in Germany unexpectedly edged down in November with some investors doubting that the economic policy will tackle the structural problems.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Sept.): 4.8% y/y vs 5.0% expected (prior: 5.0%)
- Ex bonus: 4.6% as expected (prior: 4.7%)
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Sept.): 5.0% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.8%)
- Employment change 3m/3m: -22k vs +5k expected (prior: 91k)
- Payrolled employees monthly change (Oct.): -32k vs -3k expected (prior: - 32k revised from -10k)
- Today's releases shows that the UK labour market weakened in September and some indicators suggest that this trend continued in October.
- Today's data would support a rate cut from the BoE in December, but the bank will receive more important information (inflation, budget) before its decision.