Atualização macro diária

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb): 57.3 vs 55.0 expected (prior: 56.4)

• Consumer confidence has climbed to its highest level in six months, rebounding from a dip in late 2025. Americans are feeling more optimistic about both current and future economic conditions. Notably, one-year inflation expectations dropped from 4.0% to 3.5%, while long-term expectations (5-10 years) remained steady at 3.5%.
• The rise in sentiment was particularly strong among stockholders, buoyed by the S&P 500 nearing record highs during the survey period. This market rally lifted perceptions of personal financial health to a four-month peak.
• However, concerns linger over the job market and the ongoing impact of inflation on household finances, tempering the broader optimism.

Germany: Industrial production (Dec): -1.9% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.8%)

• Germany’s industrial sector stumbled at the close of 2025, with factory output falling 1.9% in December. Yet, the outlook for 2026 has brightened dramatically. New orders surged by 7.8% (the strongest jump in two years) and the business climate improved recently, signaling robust demand ahead.

Germany: Trade Balance (Dec): 17.1bn EUR vs 14.1bn expected (prior: 13.6bn revised from 13.1bn)

• Despite a year-on-year decline in overall trade with the US amid ongoing tariff wars, Germany maintained a robust monthly trade surplus of €17.1 billion. This was bolstered by an 8.9% surge in shipments to the US, defying the broader trend.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan. 31): 231k vs 212k expected (prior: 209k)

• Continuing claims: 1844 k after 1819 k the prior week.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Dec.): 6542k vs 7250k expected (prior: 6928k revised from 7146k)

• Demand for jobs has sharply declined and came lower than expected. Job openings have decreased in retail-transport, business services and education-health sectors; on the opposite, they increased for leisure-hospitality and the public sectors.
• Hirings have increased (from 5121 prior month to 5293), mainly driven by the trade-transport and leisure sectors.
• Separations and quitters have increased over the month.
• Ther are still large swings in demand for jobs over past months and across sectors. This could point to ongoing fragilities in labor.

UK: The BoE left key rates unchanged at 3.75%

• The vote was tight 5-4, with dissenters in favor of a 25 bp cut.
• Growth outlook has been revised down for 2026 from 1.25% to 0.9% as well as 2027, from 1.6% to 1.5%.
• Inflation is expected to go back to 2% in April.
• An easing bias has been officially mentioned, in favor of new cuts in the next meetings, in line with our scenario.

The ECB kept rates unchanged as expected at 2%.

• The statement was slightly more positive on growth, but risks remained large and could impact global demand.
• Risks look now globally balanced; this was source of debate in the Committee about risks on growth versus risks on inflation. Nevertheless, Lagarde mentioned that inflation is “in a good place”, but pointing to still different contribution from sectors; the bank expects slower wage growth in parallel in order to be more comfortable on the inflation pattern.
• The low inflation pattern (1.7% y/y in Jan.) was already integrated in the ECB forecasts and was not a surprise.
• The ECB has discussed about the strength of the euro but mentioned it is already integrated in its forecasts.
• The ECB is in favor of a strong international EUR, but more progress must be made regarding liquidity in the repo market.
• Ahead of the next EU summit, the ECB sent a check list to EU leaders of the main reforms to implement to strengthen the euro area.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Dec.): -0.5% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Purchases of goods were down by 1.2% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Despite improving confidence, sales remained volatile and on a moderate trend (1.3% y/y).

France: Industrial production (Dec.): -0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 0.8% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.
• Within sectors, transport production was down due to aircraft, and utilities also down over the month; production in autos and food sectors was on rebound over the month.

Germany: Factory orders (Dec.): 7.8% m/m vs -2.2% expected (prior: 5.7% revised from 5.6%)

• Domestic orders were up by 10.7% m/m after 6.4% m/m; a strong rebound has been shown since past October.
• Foreign orders were up by 5.6% m/m after 5.2% m/m the prior month.
• Orders for intermediate and capital goods have shown a strong rebound while they have contracted for consumer goods.
• Domestic orders are on a strong recovery which bodes well for growth in German industry.

US: ISM Services (Jan.): 53.8 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.8 revised from 54.4)

• Unchanged from the December's level, which was the highest since October 2024.
• The composition of the report was a bit more mixed, with a pickup in business activity but softer new orders (to 53.1 from 56.5) and employment only just in expansion mode (down to 50.3 from 51.7).
• Prices paid rose to a 3-month high (66.6).
• According to the ISM, there was more commentary on tariff impacts and uncertainty.
• This report is consistent with solid GDP growth in Q1.

US: Services PMI (Jan. F.): 52.7 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 52.5)

• The services PMI was revised slightly upward from the preliminary release.

US: ADP Employment change (Jan.): 22k vs 45k expected (prior: 37k revised from 41k)

• Job creation remained weak and prior month’s figures were revised down.
• Job creation stagnated among small-sized firms, rose by 41 k in medium-sized firms and declined by 18k in large companies over the month.
• The bulk of job creation came from the services sector (+22k), while the industrial sector lagged far behind (+1k).
• These figures underscore persistent fragilities in the US labor market.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Jan.): 51.6 vs 51.9 expected (prior: 52.4)

• Final confidence in services has decreased more than expected over the month.
• Sentiment has decreased on new orders, backlog of orders while employment remained modestly positive; costs and selling prices were on the rise.
• By country, the index has decreased in all major countries, except Italy (up from 51.5 to 52.9); the sharpest fall was seen in Spain (53.5 after 57.1) and it slightly decreased in Germany and France; the French index passed below 50 to 48.4.

UK: Services PMI (Jan.): 54 vs 54.3 expected (prior: 51.4)

• The final data have confirmed last month’s rebound in sentiment, but the recover was slightly weaker than initially estimated.
• New orders have increased further from the prior month, and exports have improved. Sentiment around employment has deteriorated over the month.
• Costs and selling prices were on the rise over the month.

Eurozone: PPI (Dec.): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)

• Prices of energy have plummeted (-1.2% m/m), while prices of intermediate and durable consumer goods were up 0.3% m/m.
• The yearly trend has declined from -1.4% y/y prior month to -2.1% y/y.

Italy: CPI (Jan.): -1% m/m vs -1.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a large monthly fall in prices, probably due to energy prices.
• Inflation has declined from 1.2% y/y to 1.0% y/y.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Jan.): 1.7% y/y as expected (prior: 1.9%)

• Inflation was down 0.5% m/m (after 0.2% m/m) according to the preliminary data.
• The monthly decline was driven by falling prices for goods (-2.4% m/m) and services (-0.3% m/m), while energy prices were up 0.7% m/m and food prices up 0.9% m/m.
• Inflation has fallen below 2%, helped by a sharp decline in energy prices (-4.1% y/y). Food (2.7% y/y) and service (3.2% y/y) inflation remains high, while prices of goods stay on a moderate trend (0.4% y/y).

France: CPI (Jan.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a sharp fall in monthly inflation; good prices were down by 1.9% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month) and services were flat (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Food prices (0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month) and energy (0.6% m/m after -1.6% m/m prior month) remained sustained over the month.
• The yearly trend has declined from 0.7% y/y prior month to 0.4% y/y; this was helped by a large fall in energy (-7.8% y/y) and good prices (-1.2% y/y).

Turkey: CPI (Jan.): 4.84% m/m vs 4.30% expected (prior: 0.89%)

• Price have reaccelerated for several items: a rebound in monthly prices of food, health, transport, education and leisure over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 30.89% y/y to 30.65% y/y; core inflation has declined from 31.08% y/y to 29.8% y/y.