Atualização macro diária

US: Initial jobless claims (April 19): 222k as expected (prior: 216k revised from 215k)

• Continuing claims: 1841 k after 1878 k prior week.

US: Durable goods orders (March): 9.2% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)

• Orders have rebounded over the month thanks to civil aircrafts orders.
• Orders for capital goods nondefense ex-aircraft were up by only 0.1% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month; orders were up for autos and metals but weak in other sectors.
• Shipments were up by 0.1% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month), and inventories up by 0.1% m/m (flat the prior month).

US: Existing home sales (March): 4.02M vs 4.13M expected (prior: 4.27M revised from 4.26M)

• Sales of single-family houses have decreased by 6% m/m while those of condos remained stable.
• Inventories have increased over the month.
• Average prices have declined to 2.7% y/y from 3.8% y/y the prior month.

France: Consumer confidence (April): 92 vs 91 expected (prior: 92)

• Consumer confidence remained stable over the month, but components have shown a mixed picture.
• Views remained negative on financial situation and standard of living, while they have improved on prices but deteriorated on unemployment.

Germany: IFO (April): 86.9 vs 85.2 expected (prior: 86.7)

• Business sentiment has slightly improved from the prior month.
• Expectations have slightly eroded while sentiment on current situation has increased from the prior month.
• By sector, opinions were more negative in manufacturing and trade sectors, while they were less negative on services and construction.
• Sentiment has stopped deteriorating but situation remained fragile in manufacturing.

Spain: PPI (March): -3.9% m/m (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.2%)

• Prices have contracted due to falling energy prices (-12% m/m) and manufacturing good prices (-0.6% m/m).
• Yearly trend has declined from 6.7% y/y the prior month to 4.9% y/y.

Poland: Unemployment rate (March): 5.3% as expected (prior: 5.4%)

• Unemployed has decreased after 4 months of regular rise.

Brazil: Consumer confidence (April): 84.8 (prior: 84.3)

• Consumer confidence has improved tanks to rising expectations over the month.

Turkey: Industrial confidence (April): 100.8 (prior: 103.2)

• Views have improved on new orders and capex but weakened on production, employment, and global business.

US: New home sales (March): 724k vs 685k expected (prior: 674k revised from 676k)

• Sales have increased driven by a rebound in the South district over the month.
• Inventories have decreased over the month.
• Average prices were down by 4.7% y/y (-3.3% y/y prior month).

US: Manufacturing PMI (April): 50.7 vs 49 expected (prior: 50.2)

• Business sentiment stayed resilient and has slightly increased over the month.
• Production was on the rise ahead of tariffs hikes and new orders have increased from domestic demand, but exports have decreased.
• Employment has decreased while costs and prices were on the rise due to tariffs.

US: Services PMI (April): 51.4 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 54.4)

• Flash estimate has pointed to significant fall in services; new business was impacted by rising uncertainties, notably on government policy, fall in exports and falling demand for tourism and cross-border activities.
• Employment remained on a moderate positive trend; costs and prices were on the rise.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (April): 48.7 vs 47.4 expected (prior: 48.6)

• Business sentiment remained resilient versus fears of a collapse after the announcement on US tariffs.
• Flash estimate has pointed towards further weakness in France (index from 48.5 to 48.2) and in Germany (from 48.3 to 48), while rest of the area might remain better oriented.
• Production stayed firm probably in advance of major rise in tariffs and renewed trade and production disruption.
• Employment has decreased and input cost too, while prices remained on a moderate rise.

Eurozone: PMI Services (April): 49.7 vs 50.5 expected (prior: 51)

• Flash estimate has pointed to sharp decline in confidence in services; France and Germany have shown significant fall in index (France: from 47.9 to 46.8; Germany from 50.9 to 48.8), while the rest of the euro, mainly peripheral countries, stayed quite resilient in services.
• Employment remained modestly positive, and prices were on a moderate rise.

UK: PMI Manufacturing (April): 44 as expected (prior: 44.9)

• Flash estimate has pointed to falling confidence due to lower production, orders and exports.
• Employment was also down over the month.

UK: PMI Services (April): 48.9 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 52.5)

• The fall in services is the most pronounced over the month compared to the manufacturing sector.
• Rising uncertainties and falling demand, notably foreign demand, have led the index below the 50 level.

Poland: Retail sales (March): 14.3% m/m vs 14.9% expected (prior: -6%)

• A traditional volatile data; the monthly rebound was seen in several sectors but mainly driven by autos and household goods.
• Despite this monthly rebound, sales remained down by 0.3% y/y after -0.5% y/y.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (April): -13 vs -7 expected (prior: -4)

• Business confidence has declined further and has shown a sharp fall in April. All major items were falling : orders, shipments, employment while prices were on the rise.
• The 6-month vies index has fallen in parallel, driven lower by falling orders, shipments, employment, and capex.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (April): -16.7 vs -15.1 expected (prior: -14.5)

• Flash estimates have shown a new fall in consumer confidence; the index was back to the 2023 levels. No details available in this first estimate.

Switzerland: M3 (March): 2.8% y/y (prior: 2.5% revised from 2.3%)

• Monetary aggregates have seen accelerated trend growth after a period of contraction (from mid-2023 to mid-2024); M1 was up by 8.4% y/y after 5.8% y/y prior month. M2 was up by 9% y/y after 7.2% y/y prior month.
• Time deposit decline has accelerated further (-22% y/y).

Poland: Industrial production (March): 8.6% m/m vs 9.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.4%)

• Production has rebounded in manufacturing, increased in mining sectors but declined for electricity.
• Yearly trend has increased by 2.4% y/y after several month under contraction.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (March): 8.1% vs 8.7% expected (prior: 8.9%)

• Employment has regained over the month after a surge in unemployed in Jan., this explained the sharp decline in unemployment ratio over the past two monthly after a peak in Jan.
• As data remained highly volatile, it remained difficult to deduct underlying trend versus the up and down seen in labor market the recent months.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (April): 83.9 (prior: 85.9)

• Consumer confidence has decreased, and the index was back to level seen in past Feb., which remained positive.
• Confidence has weakened on financial situation, future economy, and rising concerns about unemployment.

US: Initial jobless claims (April 12): 215k vs 225k expected (prior: 224k revised from 223k)

• Continuing claims: 1885 k after 1844 k the prior week.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (April): -26.4 vs 2.2 expected (prior: 12.5)

• Business sentiment has sharply deteriorated over the month.
• Opinions have deteriorated on new orders, shipments, and employment. Prices paid and prices received were on the rise.
• The 6-month index has slightly regained (index from 5.6 prior month to 6.9) which remained particularly low. Future views have improved on new orders but remained well negative on employment and prices still viewed on the rise.

US: Housing starts (March): 1324k vs 1420k expected (prior: 1494k revised from 1501k)

• The monthly fall was more pronounced on single-family houses (-14% m/m) and reached low absolute levels based on its recent history; the decline in multifamily houses was less pronounced (-3.5% m/m).
• Building permits have regained from 1459 k the prior month to 1482 k, thanks to a rebound in multifamily houses while other categories have contracted.
• Prices and volatile interest rates have weighed down on demand.

The ECB cut key rates by 25 bp as expected (deposit rate at 2.25%).

• In its statement, the ECB mentioned a deteriorating outlook on growth due to trade tensions but also mentioned some resilience in activity. Uncertainties are on the rise, with risks of tighter financing conditions.
• The ECB seems confidence on the inflation outlook and reiterated that disinflation is on track and wage growth on a moderating process.
• The ECB removed any reference to its monetary policy viewed the prior meeting as being “meaningfully less restrictive”; the ECB could view key rates now close to or at neutral range.
• The policy remained data dependant and decisions will be made meeting by meeting as seen in past meetings.
• From Q&A:
• Lagarde developed downside risks on future activity related to trade tensions but pointed to uncertain net impact on inflation. Inflation is viewed with two-sided risks: German measures will boost demand while trade uncertainties are depressing global and domestic demand.
• Despite downside risks on activity, it seemed too early and not necessary for the ECB to turn stimulative on its policy now.
• The removal of any mention to a restrictive or not monetary policy is justified by uncertainty on current activity. The ECB seems not yet to be ready to act pre-emptively on rates given the risks, and no proposals were made in favor of a 50 bp rate cuts today.

Germany: PPI (March): -0.7% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Energy prices were sharply down over the month (-2.8% m/m after -1% m/m prior month), due to lower oil, mining, and utility prices.
• Consumer good prices were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has turned negative, down by 0.2% y/y after 0.7% y/y prior month.

Switzerland: Trade balance (March): 6.35 Bn CHF (prior: 4.74Bn)

• Trade surplus has rebounded over the month.
• Real exports were up by 3.2% m/m after 3.9% m/m prior month; real imports were up by 4.5% m/m after 3.7% m/m prior month.

Turkey: Central bank has raised key rates from 42.50% to 46% (one week rate)

• The bank mentioned demand was still resilient and fuelled upside risks on inflation on the short term.
• A tight policy should remain in place if pressures remain on inflation, but underlying trend in inflation has improved medium term.