Atualização macro diária

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.30): 224k vs 215k expected (prior: 215k revised from 213k)

• Continuing claims: 1871 k after 1896 k the prior week

 

US: Trade balance (Oct.): -73.8 bn USD vs -75 bn expected (prior: -84.4 bn)

• Trade deficit has decreased from the prior month; exports were down by 1.6% m/m (-1% m/m prior month) and imports down by 4% m/m (3.1% m/m the prior month).

 

Eurozone: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.5% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Sales have declined over the month due to falling purchases in non-food and auto sectors. This was a reversal after more positive trend in the past 3 months.

 

France: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.9%)

• Production was up for refineries, utilities and paper sectors but has sharply declined for autos and transport sectors.
• Manufacturing production was flat after -0.7% m/m prior month.

 

Germany: Factory orders (Oct.): -1.5% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 7.2% revised from 4.2%)

• Domestic orders have sharply declined over the month (-5.3% m/m after 4% m/m prior month). Foreign orders were just up by 0.8% m/m (9% m/m prior month).
• The fall was driven by declining orders for capital goods (-3.6% m/m after 13.3% m/m prior month).

 

Spain: Industrial production (Oct.): 0.5% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

• Production was driven up by a rebound in consumer durable and capital goods production over the month.

 

Sweden: CPI (Nov.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Flash inflation remained sustained over the month; no details were available, but energy prices were probably responsible for firmer inflation; core inflation was down by 0.2% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 1.9% y/y after 1.5% y/y prior month; core inflation was up by 2.4% y/y after 2.1% y/y prior month.

 

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Nov.): 2.6% vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.6%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month but the ratio (sa data) stayed stable.

US: ADP Employment change (Nov.): 146k vs 150k expected (prior: 184k revised from 233k)

• New jobs came lower than expected and prior month data were revised down.
• Jobs declined in mid-small firms but increased in large firms (120k). Education-health and construction were more positive over the month.
• Job creations were limited in good sector (6 k) and remained relatively sustained in services (140 k).
• Strikes and hurricanes have added exceptional volatility on labor data over the period, and underlying trend is less clear.

 

US: Services PMI (Nov.): 56.1 vs 57 expected (prior: 55)

• Sentiment has increased from the prior month but less than initially estimated.
• Opinions on new business have increased from the prior month and employment remained constructive. Sentiment has improved after the end of uncertainty associated to Presidential elections.
• Input costs have increased but selling prices have moderated.

 

US: ISM Services (Nov.): 52.1 vs 55.7 expected (prior: 56)

• Contrary to PMI services, the ISM index has declined from the prior month.
• Sentiment has decreased on activity, new orders, and employment. Opinions on new export orders have sharply declined and the related sub-index passed below 50, due to concerns on tariffs after Trump's election.
• Prices paid were on the rise over the month.

 

US: Factory orders (Oct.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.5%)

• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were down by 0.2% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
• Data were volatile due to a rise in orders for aircraft but a fall in defense orders.
• Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m after -0.4% m/m prior month; inventories were down by 0.1% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Nov.): 49.5 vs 49.2 expected (prior: 51.6)

• Final data on sentiment in services have shown less decrease than initially expected from the prior month.
• Details on major country are not positive: new business has declined in all countries and more significantly over the month in France and Italy.
• Sentiment has passed again below 50 in Germany and Italy over the month; the Spanish index remained above 50 but it has weakened from 54.9 the prior month.
• In parallel with weakening demand, opinions have decreased on employment while costs and prices remained on the rise.

 

Eurozone: PPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Prices of energy were up by 1.4% m/m after -1.9% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has increased from -3.4% y/y prior month to -3.2% y/y.

 

UK: PMI Services (Nov.): 50.8 vs 50 expected (prior: 52)

• Final data have shown that confidence in services has decreased less than initially identified from prior month.
• Nevertheless, demand has weakened for both domestic and foreing demand and new business has decreased (index still above 50).
• Opinions have deteriorated on employment (rising labor costs); input and output prices have increased over the month.

 

Brazil: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 1.1%)

• Industrial activity has declined despite a rebound in production of capital goods and durable consumer goods.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Oct.): 7744k vs 7519k expected (prior: 7372k revised from 7443k)

• Jobs openings have rebounded over the month, back to same level seen in previous months (Aug.-July).
• The situation is mixed at sector level: openings have decreased in manufacturing and trade-transport sectors; they have strongly rebounded in professional business services (1.65 M from 1.44 M the prior month) and increased for education-health and leisure -hospitality.
• In parallel, hirings have decreased (5.31 M after 5.58 M prior month) and separations (5.26 M from 5.19 M) and quitters (3.32 M after 3.09 M) have increased over the month.
• Demand for labor from firms has increased ahead of higher activity expected (services to firms) while hirings remained low. Separations have increased (people more confident to find new positions). All these data point to less downside risks on labor in the short run.

 

Switzerland: CPI (Nov.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• A long list of prices was down over the month: food, clothes, transport, communication, leisure, hotel-restaurants.
• Prices of goods were down by 0.3% m/m after -0.2% m/m the prior month and services were flat after -0.1% m/m prior month. Core inflation was flat after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has regained from 0.6% y/y the prior month to 0.7% y/y; core inflation was stable at 1.1% y/y. The inflation decline should pave the way to another rate cut by the SNB next week.

 

Brazil: GDP (Q3-25): 0.9% q/q vs 0.8% expected (prior: 1.4%)

• Domestic growth remained sustained, but a drag came from external trade over the quarter.
• Consumption remained on sustained trend (1.5%q after 1.4% q in Q2); investment was up by 2.1% q after 2.2%q in Q2.
• Net trade was a drag as exports were down by 0.6%q in Q3 after 1.5% in Q2.

 

Turkey: CPI (Nov.): 2.24% m/m vs 1.92% expected (prior: 2.88%)

• Except clothes, all sectors have seen a sustained monthly rebound. The largest rebound was in food prices, up by 5.1% m/m.
• Yearly trend has declined from 48.58% y/y the prior month to 47.09% y/y; core inflation was up by 47.13% y/y after 47.75% y/y the prior month.

 

Turkey: PPI (Nov.): 0.66% m/m (prior: 1.29%)

• Prices have decreased for electricity, gas and coke but have accelerated for pharma, food and manufactured good prices over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 32.24% y/y to 29.47% y/y.

 

US: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 49.7 vs 48.8 expected (prior: 48.5)

• Final data were more positive than first estimate, pointing to improving sentiment but the index remained just below the 50 marks. New orders have regained from 46.8 the prior month to 49.3, thanks to prospects of rising domestic demand. Views on employment was positive.
• On the opposite, new export orders have decreased over the month. Costs have seen limited rise but selling prices were on the rise.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.4 vs 47.5 expected (prior: 46.5)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded but the index stayed just below the 50 marks.
• Opinions have improved on production, new orders, exports, and employment. Prices paid have decreased over the month.

 

US: Construction spending (Oct.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Residential construction was up by 1.5% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month), while non-residential construction was down by 0.4% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month).

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 45.2 as expected (prior: 46)

• Business sentiment has weakened as seen in the first estimate. Except in Germany, business sentiment has weakened in all other countries; new orders were up in Germany but have decreased for all other countries.
• France index has reached very low levels (index at 43.1 and new orders at 35.9), while the Spanish index has decreased (53.1) it remained above the 50 marks.
• Opinions have decreased on production, orders and also employment; cost have marginally decreased but more discounts are offered on selling prices.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed has marginally declined over the month and the ratio remained stable.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 5.8% vs 6.1% expected (prior: 6.0% revised from 6.1%)

• Since July, unemployed has decreased regularly; the ratio has declined below the 6% mark over the month.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.9 vs 49.1 expected (prior: 49.2)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month on weakening new orders (index at 45.8).

 

Norway: PMI (Nov.): 50.7 (prior: 52 revised from 52.4)

• Index has decreased close to 50 on weakening new orders (index below 50).

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 53.8 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 53.2)

• Business sentiment has increased further, and the monthly improvement was broad based across sub-indices. Views have improved on production and new orders (both domestic and foreign orders).
• On the opposite, views on employment have decreased and prices of raw materials were on as strong rebound.

 

Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.5 vs 49.5 expected (prior: 49.9)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month on slower production and orders (index still above 50); opinions have also decreased for inventories and employment.
• Prices paid were on the rise.
• Separately, index on services remained stable at 51.8; sentiment was positive on current activity, new orders and on prices.

 

UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48 vs 48.6 expected (prior: 49.9)

• Business confidence has decreased with strong decline in new orders (index at 45.7 after 48.2).
• Sentiment has decreased on production, new orders, and employment. Costs were on the rise but selling prices remained stable or even lower.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (Nov.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices have accelerated over the month, with prospects of higher taxes in the sector.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.7% y/y after 2.4% y/y the prior month.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.3 (prior: 45.8)

• Business confidence has strongly rebounded but the index remained below the 50 marks; new orders have regained from low level but also remained below 50.