Atualização macro diária

US: ADP Employment change (March): 155k vs 120k expected (prior: 84k revised from 77k)

• Employment has improved after weak data the prior month, even revised higher.
• The rebound was driven by services (132 k), while job creations were moderate in the good sector (24 k).

 

US: Factory orders (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 1.7%)

• Orders remained sustained for consumer, metals, and raw material goods over the month; orders for capital goods non-defence ex aircraft (core goods) have decreased by 0.2% m/m (1% m/m prior month).
• Shipments were up 0.7% m/m and by 0.8%m/m for core goods; inventories were up by 0.1% m/m.
• Threat of higher tariffs have increased orders for some sectors, while it has delayed decisions on investment and related orders in other sectors.

 

Brazil: Industrial production (Feb.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0%)

• Production has decreased for consumer goods (-1.3% m/m after 3.5% m/m prior month), while it remained on positive trend (0.8% m/m) for capital and intermediate goods.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (March): 47.3 (prior: 48.3)

• Opinions on new orders have decreased over the month and related index came at 44.7.

US: Manufacturing PMI (March): 50.2 vs 49.9 expected (prior: 52.7)

• Final data have shown a limited fall over the month of the index which remained just above 50.
• Sentiment on production has decreased due to concerns about tariffs and the end of federal contracts.
• Foreign demand (from Canada, Europe, and Asia) was firmer ahead of higher tariffs.
• Opinions remained stable on employment.
• Costs were on the rise due to metals prices and tariffs and selling prices have increased.

 

US: Construction spending (Feb.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.2%)

• Construction in residential has rebounded after the prior month fall.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (March): 49 vs 49.5 expected (prior: 50.3)

• Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month and the index came just below 50.
• Worries on tariffs and future demand have weighted down on all components of the index.
• Opinions have decreased on production, new exports (both indices now below 50) and new orders, backlog of orders and employment.
• Prices paid were on a sharp rise.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Feb.): 7568k vs 7658k expected (prior: 7762k revised from 7740k)

• Labor data have shown slow deterioration in different sectors.
• Openings have decreased for trade, health, and leisure-hospitality sectors. The rise was concentrated on business services and education.
• Hirings were more positive on business services, but decreased on trade-transport, education-health, and leisure-hospitality.
• Separations and quitters have both decreased over the month, but they both increased for leisure-hospitality and for government (state and local).
• A higher volatility across sectors and globally lower demand from firms, and lower incentives to change of labor for households pointed to a change in trend, validating worries seen within consumer confidence about a less positive situation than in past quarters.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (March): 2.2% y/y as expected (prior: 2.3%)

• Prices were up by 0.6% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month; while energy prices were down by 1.2% m/m, goods were up by 1.9% m/m; services were on a moderate monthly trend, up by 0.4% m/m.
• Yearly trend in flash estimates has declined on both headline and core inflation (2.4% y/y after 2.6%); progress was also seen in services, declining from 3.7% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.
• Inflation gives room for the ECB to cut further the next meeting, but domestic pressures remain in place and ECB's vigilance would also remain in H2-25.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (March): 48.6 vs 48.7 expected (prior: 47.6)

• Final data have confirmed improving business sentiment; opinions have improved due to more purchases from the US ahead of the tariffs and also expectations of higher activity in Germany (defence and infrastructure plans) to spread notably in France.
• New orders have improved in both Germany (index above 50 at 50.9) and in France. Sentiment has stabilized on employment, but costs remained on the rise and pressures on prices.
• Contrary to Germany, business sentiment has decreased in Italy and Spain over the month.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 6.1% vs 6.2% expected (prior: 6.2%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 5.9% vs 6.3% expected (prior: 6.2% revised from 6.3%)

• Unemployed has decreased after a rebound in Dec.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (March): 50.7 vs 51.1 expected (prior: 50.6)

• Business sentiment remained above 50 and new orders have increased (from 51.1 prior month to 51.6).

 

Norway: PMI (March): 50.6 (prior: 51.9)

• Sentiment on new orders has decreased from 50.4 prior month to 48.4.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (March): 53.6 vs 54 expected (prior: 53.5)

• Sentiment has marginally increased thanks to a strong rebound in production, while new orders have decreased, notably domestic orders, as well as employment.

 

Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (March): 48.9 vs 50.5 expected (prior: 49.6)

• Business sentiment has declined over the month on lower production, purchases, and employment, while index on backlog of orders was slightly better (50.1).
• In parallel, services PMI has sharply declined from 56.8 prior month to 50.6; views were more negative on activity, orders employment and on prices.

 

UK: PMI Manufacturing (March): 44.9 vs 44.6 expected (prior: 46.9)

• The fall has been confirmed form the prior month, but it was slightly less negative than in flash estimate.
• Views have decreased on production and new orders over the month, with all sectors concerned. Demand was weak due to domestic concerns and geopolitical tension and uncertainties on tariffs; foreign demand was also weak.
• Prices have shown modest rise.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (March): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Prices were flat over the month; yearly trend remained unchanged at 3.9% y/y.

US: Chicago PMI (March): 47.6 vs 45 expected (prior: 45.5)

• Contrary to consensus expectations, business sentiment has regained over the month, thanks to new orders and production.

 

Germany: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.8% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.2%)

• Sales were firmer over the month, following a rebound seen the prior month.
• Sales of clothes, pharma products and internet sales were stronger while they weakened over the month for IT and furniture.

 

Germany: CPI (March): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Preliminary prices remained strong over the month; prices for food, clothes, household goods were higher over the month while prices of energy have decreased.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.6% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y.

 

Italy: CPI (March): 1.6% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices have re-accelerated over the month due to households’ utility, while transport costs came lower.
• Preliminary data have pointed toward a rebound from 1.7% y/y the prior month to 2.1% y/y.

 

Poland: CPI (March): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to some moderation in monthly changes, due to lower fuel and energy prices over the month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 4.9% y/y.

 

UK: M4 (Feb.): 3.8% y/y (prior: 4.1%)

• Monthly loans and consumer credit have slightly decreased over the month; mortgage approvals also came lower than the prior month.

US: Personal income (Feb.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.9%)

• Income formation remained sustained over the month; wage growth was up by 0.4% m/m after 0.2% m/m, but disposable income was up by 0.9% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month, thanks to large transfers.
• Real disposable income was also strong, up by 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m.
• Saving ratio has increased from 4.3% to 4.6%.

 

US: Personal spending (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.2%)

• Purchases of durable goods were up by 1.4% m/m after -4.3% m/m the prior month; services remained on moderate trend up by 0.2% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.

 

US: Core PCE deflator (Feb.): 0.365% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.298%)

• Prices were firmer than expected over the month; prices of durable goods were up by 0.4% m/m, services up by 0.37% m/m due to health care and other services.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.7% y/y to 2.8% y/y.
• These data will fuel current wait-and-see strategy from the Fed.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (March): 57 vs 57.9 expected (prior: 64.7)

• Final consumer confidence has declined more than in the first estimates from the prior month.
• Sentiment on current situation has decreased less than expected from the prior month but expectations have sharply declined (the related index was back to the lows seen in 2022).
• Sentiment has decreased on current situation due to lower net income and higher inflation.
• Expectations have declined on household financial situation, future economy, and rising unemployment.
• Purchases of autos have decreased while those of houses remained quite resilient.
• 12M inflation projections have increased from 4.3% to 5%, and 5-10y inflation increased from 3.5% to 4.1%.
• Besides traditional opposition between Republicans and Democrats, the average sentiment has sharply declined and could be a warning of how the current policy is perceived.

 

France: Consumer spending (Feb.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.5%)

• Sales remained depressed despite some rebound in autos and clothes over the month after large fall in Jan.; energy consumption was slightly up and balanced weak sales in goods.

 

France: CPI (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Preliminary prices offered a mix picture at sector level over the month: prices of goods were up by 1% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month), energy was down by 1% m/m (-4.6% m/m prior month), and services were up by 0.1% m/m ()0.6% m/m prior month).
• The yearly trend remained unchanged at 0.9% y/y; energy prices remained in disinflation (-6.3% y/y), while services remained above 2% trend (2.3% y/y).

 

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Apr.): -24.5 vs -22.5 expected (prior: -24.6 revised from -24.7)

• Consumer sentiment was qui unchanged from the prior month and remained low. While sentiment has improved on future business, preference for saving remained high.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (March): 6.3% vs 6.2% expected (prior: 6.2%)

• Unemployed has increased by 26 k after 9 k rise the prior month.
• Unemployment ratio remained on a slow but regular rising trend.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (March): 95 vs 98.5 expected (prior: 98.8)

• Consumer confidence has decreased over the month; opinions have decreased about future economy and concerns were on the rise about unemployment.
• Views have decreased on future spending.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (March): 86 vs 87.3 expected (prior: 86.9 revised from 87)

• Sentiment has deteriorated on orders, for both domestic and foreign orders; outlook on production remained depressed.

 

Spain: CPI (March): 0.7% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Inflation has moderated over the month according to preliminary data and thanks to lower energy prices.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.9% y/y prior month to 2.2% y/y and from 2.2% to 2% y/y on core inflation.

 

Norway: Retail sales (Feb.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 1.1%)

• Sales have reversed after strong rebound the prior month; sales were driven lower by electronics and ICT purchases.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (March): 2% as expected (prior: 2%)

• Unemployed has slightly decreased but unemployment rate (sa) remained stable.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.1% m/m (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.7%)

 

Switzerland: KOF (March): 103.9 vs 102.5 expected (prior: 102.6 revised from 101.7)

• Business sentiment has rebounded, and prior month data were revised up.

 

UK: Retail sales (Feb.): 1% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.7%)

• Sales remained sustained thanks to ongoing strong purchases in household goods, clothes, and internet sales.

 

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (March): -10.6 as expected (prior: -11 revised from -11.4)

• Business sentiment has regained, and prior month data were revised up.
• Opinions have improved on production, and turned less negative on orders, exports, and employment.
• Selling prices were on the rise over the month.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (March): -14.5 as expected (prior: -13.6)

• Sentiment on past situation has improved, but opinions about future financial situation and economy have deteriorated over the month.

 

Eurozone: Service confidence (March): 2.4 vs 6.4 expected (prior: 5.1 revised from 6.2)

• Sentiment has sharply declined over the month; situation has deteriorated about current business and opinions about future demand have decreased.