Atualização macro diária

US: Initial jobless claims (August 8): 224k vs 225k expected (prior: 227k revised from 226k)

• Continuing claims: 1953 k after 1968 k prior week.

US: PPI (July): 0.9% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0%)

• Prices have accelerated more than expected due to large rise in all sectors.
• Goods prices were up by 0.7% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month), food up by 1.4% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month), energy up by 0.9% m/m, and finally services up by 1.1% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month) due to a sharp rebound in trade and warehouses costs.
• Core PPIs were also up by 0.6% m/m after 0% prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.3% y/y after 2.3% y/y prior month and to 2.8% y/y on core PPIs (2.5% y/y prior month).
• While pressures on headline inflation were still moderate in latest CPI release (except core CPI), more pressures will be seen over the next months in line with our scenario.

Eurozone: Industrial production (June): -1.3% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1.7%)

• Industrial activity has reversed from the prior month; all sectors have contracted over the month except energy up by 2.9% m/m after 3.6% m/m prior month.
• Monthly trend in consumer durable goods has turned negative over the past three months.

France: CPI (July): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Final data have confirmed the monthly change; prices have declined for manufactured goods, driven by a fall (-9% m/m) in clothes.
• On the opposite, energy prices were up by 0.9% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month) and strongly up in services (1.3% m/m after 0.6% m/m) due to a strong rise in transport (10% m/m).
• Yearly trend remained unchanged at 0.9% y/y.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (July): -0.2% m/m (prior: -0.1%)

• Import prices were up by 0.1% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month), and producer prices down by 0.3% m/m (flat prior month).
• Yearly trend remained stable at -2.8% y/y on import prices and was flat for producer prices.

UK: Industrial production (June): 0.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.3% revised from -0.9%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded after the fall seen the prior month.
• Manufacturing production was up by 0.5% (-1% m/m prior month) due to a rebound in investment and consumer durable goods.
• Production in mining-oil has contracted, while electricity was up over the month.

UK: RICS house price balance (July): -13% vs -5% expected (prior: -7%)

• Sentiment has deteriorated over the month due to lower price expectations, lower future demand and falling agreed sales.

UK: GDP (Q2-25): 0.3% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Growth was more resilient than expected, thanks to high public spending in Q2.
• Consumption was up by 0.1% (0.4% q in Q1), and public consumption up by 1.2% q (-0.4%q in Q1).
• Investment has sharply contracted (-4%q after 3.9%q in Q1); net trade contribution was slightly positive over the quarter.
• In Q2, growth was driven by services, construction and activity in pharma sector.
• Resilient growth could delay further the timing of a next rate cut.

Poland: CPI (July): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final data confirmed firmer inflation over the month; prices of food, clothes and household equipment have declined while prices of energy, transport and recreation-culture have accelerated over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.1% y/y prior month to 3.1% y/y.

Sweden: CPI (July): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month.
• Prices were up for food, transport and culture-leisure sectors while down for household goods, clothes and health care.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.8% y/y to 3% y/y but core inflation declined from 3.3% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y.

Germany: CPI (July): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly rebound in prices; despite falling prices of clothes for the third month, inflation has accelerated for energy and leisure sectors over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.0% y/y prior month to 1.8% y/y.

Spain: CPI (July): -0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Final data have confirmed the sharp fall in monthly prices; prices have declined over the month on food, clothes, furniture and communication; on the opposite, prices were up for housing, transport and recreation-culture sectors.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 2.7% y/y after 2.3% y/y prior month.

Poland: GDP (Q2-25): 0.8% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Preliminary data (0.8%q; 3.4% y/y) have pointed to sustained growth trend; no details available at sector level, but high frequency data have pointed to firmer production and retail sales in Q2.

Brazil: Retail sales (June): -2.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

• Broad sales were sharply down over the month; sales were up for fuel, clothes and personal items but down in other sectors which have reversed from the prior month.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (July): 100.3 vs 98.9 expected (prior: 98.6)

• Business sentiment has regained over the month; balance of opinions has improved about global economy, capex but uncertainties have also increased; firms remained cautious on specific future sales.
• Less firms are inclined to increase wages in the future.
• The index was back to high level seen in past Jan.-Feb.

US: CPI (July): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Inflation was up by 0.197% m/m after 0.287% m/m on headline and was up by 0.322% m/m on core inflation after 0.228% m/m prior month.
• Falling energy prices were a drag on prices, while limited pressures were seen on specific good prices from tariffs; but services were globally firmer than the prior month.
• Food prices were flat over the month, but specific pressures were seen on some products result from higher tariffs (tomatoes, coffee).
• Energy prices were down by 1.1% thanks to falling electricity and gasoline prices (-2.2% m/m); energy prices contributed again to moderate yearly trend, being down by 1.6% y/y (-0.8% y/y prior month).
• Prices of goods were up by 0.2% m/m, as seen the prior month; yearly trend was up by 1.2% y/y after 0.7% y/y prior month. There was a rotation in goods impacted by higher tariffs this month; prices of furniture, household equipment, footwear, tires, videos and sport goods have accelerated while those of appliances have reversed from the prior month rise. Pressures and volatility in good prices, with upside risks, will remain as tariffs could progressively impact goods over the next quarters.
• Services were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month; prices remained on a 3.6% y/y trend. Rents were up by a regular 0.3% m/m (4.1% y/y), but prices of medical (0.8% m/m), transport services (0.8% m/m), airlines (4% m/m!) and other personal services (0.5% m/m) have strongly re-accelerated.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 2.7% on headline inflation but core inflation has accelerated to 3.1% y/y after 2.9% y/y prior month.

Germany: Zew (Aug.): 34.7 vs 39.5 expected (prior: 52.7)

• Confidence has weakened from the prior month due to disappointment and related domestic costs attached to the US-EU trade deal viewed by financial community.
• Expectations have decreased as well as sentiment on current situation (index from -59.5 prior month to -68.6).
• By sector, sentiment has sharply declined over the month for autos, steel, engineering and construction, while it has regained for telcos and banks.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (June): 4.7% as expected (prior: 4.7%)

• Claimant count remained stable at 4.4%; employment has decreased by 8 k after -26 k the prior month.
• On 3-month average, unemployed has slightly increased; part-time workers have increased on a 3-month basis.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (June): 4.6% y/y vs 4.7% expected (prior: 5.0%)

• Wage growth has moderated over the month; the 3-month average wage growth has slowed down in all sectors, except public sector showing stable trend (5.3% y/y).
• Wage growth has slowed down for services from 4.9% y/y prior month to 4.7% y/y.
• Employment and wage growth are both on a slower trend but not sufficiently to change the cautious stance on interest rates adopted by the central bank.

Brazil: CPI (July): 0.26% m/m vs 0.36% expected (prior: 0.24%)

• Prices have declined over the month on food, clothes and communication; on the opposite, prices were firmer for housing, personal expenses and health care sectors.
• Yearly trend has declined from 5.35% y/y prior month to 5.23% y/y.

Turkey: Current account (June): -2.01bn USD vs -1.31bn expected (prior: -0.75bn revised from -0.68bn)

• Trade deficit has increased over the month; official reserves turned negative, down by USD 4.050 bn after +13.466 bn USD the prior month.

Italy: CPI (July): -1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Declining prices have been confirmed over the month; prices declined for clothes (-18% m/m on discounts), and for household goods, communication and hotels.
• Yearly trend has decreased from 1.8% y/y the prior month to 1.7% y/y.

Norway: CPI (July): 0.8% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

• Prices have accelerated over the month for food, household goods and hotels, while they decreased for clothes and leisure. Core inflation was up by 0.8% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.0% prior month to 3.3% y/y and core inflation remained stable at 3.1% y/y.

Turkey: Industrial production (June): 0.7% m/m (prior: 3.2% revised from 3.1%)

• Industrial activity has slowed down over the month; the slowdown mainly came from mining, but manufacturing activity has slowed down too, up by 0.9% m/m after 3.4% m/m the prior month.