Atualização macro diária
BoE and ECB held rates steady, while the US economy remain resilient in Q1 2026
US: Initial jobless claims (April 25): 189k vs 212k expected (prior: 215k revised from 214k)
- Initial jobless claims dropped to 189k, the lowest since 1969, suggesting unemployment is less acute than feared a few months ago. Continuing claims edged down to 1.785 million from 1.808 million.
US: GDP (Q1-26): 2.0% q/q vs 2.3% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Growth remained resilient and regained after the Q4-25 government shutdown, while impact from the conflict was still limited in Q1.
- Consumption growth has slowed down from 1.9% to 1.6%, and it was only driven by services (2.4% q/q).
- Residential investment was down (-8% q/q) and structure investment down (-6.7% q/q); equipment was up by 17.2% q/q R&D-intellectual property up by 13% q/q.
- Exports and imports have both rebounded but net exports have negatively contributed to GDP.
- Inventories were less negative in Q1 after the fall in Q4, contributing positively to Q1 GDP by 0.40 pp.
- Our favorite measure of domestic growth (private domestic sales) was up by 2.5% q/q after 1.8% q/q.
US: Employment cost index (Q1-26): 0.9% q/q vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Total wages were up by 0.9% q/q after 0.7% q/q in Q4-25.
US: Personal income (March): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Disposable income was up by 0.6% m/m.
US: Personal spending (March): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Purchases of services were up by 0.1% m/m while goods were up by 0.6% m/m.
- Saving ratio was up from 3.6% to 3.9%.
US: Core PCE deflator (March): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Core PCE was in line with expectations.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.2% y/y after 3.0% y/y prior month.
US: Chicago PMI (Apr): 49.2 vs 54.9 expected (prior: 52.8)
- PMI contracted as new orders fell, while prices paid accelerated.
France: Consumer spending (March): 0.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -1.4%)
- Consumption has rebounded, driven by autos, durable goods and clothes over the month. Energy consumption was quite flat over the month.
France: GDP (Q1-26): 0% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Growth was flat in Q1: capex and exports plunged while consumption was slightly down; public consumption and inventories were the only positive contribution to growth in the quarter.
- Consumption was down by 0.1%q and only driven by services; investment was down by 0.4%q: construction and transport were sharply down over the quarter, while investment in services, (information-communication) and equipment was still on a sustained positive trend.
- Exports and imports have both contracted in Q1, but net exports were heavily down (-0.7 pp net impact on Q1 GDP).
- Inventories have strongly rebounded, contributing by 0.8 pp to Q1 GDP.
France: CPI (April): 1.2% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: 1.1%)
- Inflation has accelerated again in April; prices were driven up by energy (4.7% m/m; 14.2% y/y), fresh food (1.1% m/m; 2% y/y) and services (1.2% m/m;1.9% y/y). Prices of goods were flat over the month and still in contraction by 0.6% y/y.
- Yearly trend has rebounded from 2% prior month to 2.5% y/y.
France: Producer Prices (March): 2% m/m (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.2%)
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 0.2% y/y after -2.4% y/y prior month.
Germany: GDP (Q1-26): 0.3% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)
- No details were available for this first estimate of GDP, coming higher than expected. Exports and public consumption might have supported activity in Q1.
Germany: Retail sales (March): -2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.6%)
- Sales were sharply down over the month in all sectors, except furniture and internet sales.
Germany: Unemployment rate (April): 6.4% vs 6.3% expected (prior: 6.4% revised from 6.3%)
- The unemployment rate remained stable after upwards revisions to prior month data.
- Unemployed increased by 20 k after 3 k the prior month. Vacancies remained on a decreasing trend.
Italy: GDP (Q1-26): 0.2% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Preliminary data came better than expected; no details available, but net exports have driven the growth, while domestic demand was weak.
Italy: Unemployment rate (March): 5.2% vs 5.3% expected (prior: 5.4% revised from 5.3%)
- Unemployment rate has slightly decreased
Spain: GDP (Q1-26): 0.6% q/q vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.8%)
- Growth has slowed down from the prior quarter, but it remained sustained; consumption was the main support to growth in this first estimate.
Poland: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.1%)
- Preliminary data pointed to a still sustained monthly rise in inflation, due to food prices.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y.
Switzerland: KOF (April): 97.9 vs 95.7 expected (prior: 95.6 revised from 96.1)
- After a sharp fall the prior month, business confidence has slightly rebounded over the month; the index remained at a low level.
Norway: Unemployment rate (April): 2.1% (prior: 2.1%)
- Unemployment ratio remained stable in seasonally adjusted data.
Eurozone: GDP (Q1-26): 0.1% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- First estimate points to a slightly slower growth in Q1; no detail available by sector.
Eurozone: CPI estimate (April): 3% y/y as expected (prior: 2.6%)
- Prices were up by 1% m/m after 1.3% m/m the prior month in line with expectations.
- Energy prices were up by 3% m/m (7% m/m prior month), and services up by 1.1% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month); food prices were up by 0.5% m/m and goods prices up by 0.6% m/m.
- Core inflation was up by 0.9%m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month and up by 2.2% y/y.
Eurozone: Unemployment rate (March): 6.2% as expected (prior: 6.3% revised from 6.2%)
- Unemployment rate has decreased at the euro-area level.
UK: BoE kept rates unchanged at 3.75%
- The BoE looks worried about oil prices and inflation scenario.
- The bank has lowered its growth outlook for 2026 to 0.8% and expects inflation to remain close to 3.6%.
- The BoE has identified different scenarios on the conflict and related oil prices to identify various impacts on core inflation via second round effects. The length of the conflict and the oil prices levels will push up inflation (6% in the most adverse scenario) with significant impact on core inflation.
- If scenario develops in favor of a rapid end of the conflict with lower oil prices, rate hikes may not be necessary given the weak activity and labor; in other cases, the BoE pointed out to potential rate hikes to limit second round effects.
- The bank is data-dependent for the next meeting; today’s decision was taken with one dissent in favor of a rate hike.
Eurozone: ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.0%
- The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, as expected. Officials said they need more time to gauge how the conflict might feed second-round inflation effects, largely a function of the energy-price shock’s intensity and duration.
- Policymakers offered no forward guidance, stressing decisions will remain data-dependent. They warned that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth have both intensified.
- Short-term inflation expectations have shot up but long-term ones remain broadly anchored, which could warrant a less aggressive hawkish monetary policy than what the market is pricing (3 hikes).
Brazil: Unemployment rate (March): 6.1% as expected (prior: 5.8%)
- Unemployed has increased over the month.
US durable orders: the capex cycle is still alive
US: Durable goods orders (March): 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.2% revised from -1.3%)
- Orders were globally stronger than expected pointing to a still ongoing capex rebound.
- Preliminary data pointed to a strong rise on core orders (orders nondefense and ex aircraft) up by 3.3% m/m after 1.6% m/m the prior month.
- Orders were strong for defense (missiles), autos, computers, and machinery (AI related sectors) but decreased for civil aircrafts.
- Shipments were up by 0.7% m/m (1.6% m/m prior month) and up by 1.2% for core orders (1.3% m/m prior month).
- Inventories were up by 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month) and were flat for core orders.
US: Wholesale inventories (March): 1.4% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)
- Inventories were on the rise for machinery and for all inventories ex oil. Sales were also sustained (2.7% m/m) for all sectors.
US: Housing starts (March): 1502k vs 1380k expected (prior: 1356k)
- A strong rebound in single-family houses over the month; building permits have decreased from 1538 k to 1372 k with a decline in both single-family and multi-family houses.
Eurozone: M3 (March): 3.2% y/y vs 3.1% expected (prior: 3.0%)
- M2 was up by 3.1% y/y after 3.3 prior month and M1 was up by 4.6% y/y after 4.8% y/y prior month.
- Credit to the private sector was up by 3.2% y/y after 3.0% y/y the prior month.
Eurozone: Industrial confidence (April): -7.7 vs -7.0 expected (prior: -7.0)
- Business sentiment was lower than expected over the month and it has sharply decreased but the index remained relatively high vs 2024-25 period.
- Sentiment has deteriorated on future production, after a rebound in past month production; orders remained depressed and exports outlook has deteriorated as well as employment while prices were sharply on the rise.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (April): -20.6 as expected (prior: -16.4)
- Confidence has sharply declined from the prior month and the index was back to the lows seen in 2022.
- Opinions have sharply deteriorated about past and future economic conditions on economy, employment and inflation.
Eurozone: Services confidence (April): 0.9 vs 3.0 expected (prior: 4.1 revised from 4.9)
- Sentiment in services has decreased and prior month data were revised down. The index remained relatively high compared to recent past period.
- Sentiment has decreased on activity, demand and employment while prices were on a strong rise.
Germany: CPI (April): 0.5% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 1.2%)
- Preliminary data came lower than expected over the month; no details were available, but the monthly rise was driven by energy-transport sector, while rises were also sustained for food and housing.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 2.9% (3.0% y/y expected) after 2.8% y/y the prior month.
Italy: Consumer confidence (April): 90.8 vs 91.3 expected (prior: 92.6)
- Consumer confidence has decreased over the month; opinions have deteriorated on future financial situation and the economy.
Italy: Manufacturing confidence (April): 87.9 vs 88 expected (prior: 88.7 revised from 88.8)
- Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month, in parallel with falling demand in construction, services and retail sectors.
Spain: CPI (April): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.7%)
- Inflation remained sustained over the month in preliminary data. The monthly rise was driven by higher fuel costs.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.4% y/y to 3.5% y/y.
Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (April): 100 (prior: 100.3 revised from 100.7)
- Business confidence has decreased in the manufacturing and construction sectors.
Sweden: Consumer confidence (April): 91.5 (prior: 95.2)
- Confidence has decreased on global and personal situation.
Sweden: Retail sales (March): 3.1% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: -0.8%)
Sweden: GDP (Q1-26): -0.2% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- First estimate for Q1 GDP has pointed to lower growth than expected; declining exports and subdued domestic demand were reasons for this disappointing data; complete data will be published next month.
Norway: Retail sales (March): -0.1% m/m (prior: -1.1%)
- Sales have decreased for another month due to rising oil prices and higher mortgage.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (March): 8.1% vs 8.5% expected (prior: 8.4%)
- Unemployed has decreased over the month and participation rate has slightly increased.
US: business and consumer sentiment on the rise
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Feb.): 0.90% y/y vs 1.12% expected (prior: 1.19% revised from 1.18%)
- Prices were up by 0.09% m/m after 0.16% m/m the prior month; among the 20 cities, 10 cities have seen a monthly contraction in prices versus only 3 cities in this case the prior month.
- The yearly trend in prices offered a wider range among the 20 cities from -5%y/y (Seattle) to +9% y/y (Cleveland).
US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (April): 3 vs 1 expected (prior: 0)
- Business sentiment has rebounded from the prior month; opinions have increased on new orders and employment but also on delivery time; views on capex have decreased from the prior month.
- The 6M index came lower than the prior month.
- Prices paid have increased but prices received have moderated from the prior month.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (April): 92.8 vs 89 expected (prior: 92.2 revised from 91.8)
- Confidence has rebounded over the month thanks to a rise in expectations while opinions have eroded on current situation.
- Sentiment on labor has improved over the month; expectations have increased about future activity and employment.
- Willingness to buy autos and houses has regained from prior month but weakened on major appliances.
- Inflation expectations at 12M have stabilized at 6.1% y/y after 6.2% y/y prior month.
Italy: PPI (March): 5.9% m/m (prior: -0.8%)
- Yearly trend was up by 5.4% y/y after -3.7% y/y prior month.
Spain: Unemployment rate (Q1-26): 10.83% vs 9.8% expected (prior: 9.93%)
- Unemployment has surged over the quarter from multi year lows of the unemployment ratio.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (March): 4.1% y/y (prior: 2.3% revised from 2.2%)
- Sales were up by 1.2% m/m, driven by food, household goods and health sectors.
- Trend remained solid but headwinds (energy prices and slower job creations) could weigh down on consumption in Q2.
Brazil: CPI (April): 0.89% m/m vs 0.98% expected (prior: 0.44%)
- Monthly inflation has accelerated but less than expected by the consensus.
- Monthly changes have accelerated for food, transport-energy and health.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.9% y/y prior month to 4.37% y/y.
Weakening German consumer confidence
US: US Dallas Fed manufacturing
- Views on global activity have decreased but other components have improved such as company outlook, orders and shipments; the 6M index has also improved form the prior month.
Germany: GFK consumer confidence (May): -33.3 vs -30 expected (prior: -28.1 revised from -28)
- Consumer confidence has sharply declined over the month; sentiment has declined about business outlook, net income situation and future purchases.
- The index was back in the low range seen in 2022-2023.
Germany's business outlook down sharply
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (April F.): 49.8 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 53.3)
- Current conditions: 52.5 vs 51.0 expected (prior: 55.8)
- Expectations: 48.1 vs 47.7 expected (prior: 51.7)
- Consumer confidence was revised slightly up from the preliminary estimate, but it remains to a record low according to this survey.
- Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.7% over the next year, up from 3.8% in March. Yet, it rose to as much as 7.1% in May 2025.
Germany: IFO (April): 84.4 vs 85.7 expected (prior: 86.3)
- Current assessment: 85.4 vs 86.2 expected (prior: 86.7)
- Expectations: 83.3 vs 85.5 expected (prior: 85.9)
- The IFO index fell to its lowest level since May 2020, with all sectors down over the month, including construction despite the fiscal stimulus for infrastructure. This probably reflects concerns about higher interest rates rather than doubts about fiscal spending.
France: Consumer confidence (April): 84 vs 88 expected (prior: 89)
- Consumer confidence has deteriorated sharply (steepest deterioration since March 2022), tumbling to the lowest level since April 2023.
- The net percentage of people expecting higher prices has reached its highest level since April 2022.
UK: Retail sales (March): 0.7% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from 0.4%)
- Retail sales y/y: 1.7% vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 2.5%)
- Ex auto fuel: +0.2% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.4%); +1.7% y/y vs 2.0% expected (prior: 2.7% revised from 3.4%)
- Retail sales increased m/m in nearly all major segments.
- Stronger-than-expected consumption makes a near‑term Bank of England rate cut less likely.