US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.20): 199k vs 260k expected (prior: 268k)
- Continuing claims: 2049 k after 2080 k the prior week.
US: Durable goods orders (Oct.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.3%)
- Defense orders and non-defense aircraft orders were highly volatile in past months and were both sharply down over the month; more positively, core orders (orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft) were up by 0.6% m/m after upward revisions to prior month (1.3% m/m): the trend in capex is expected to remain positive, as mentioned by positive PMI data.
- Shipments were up by 1.5% m/m (core orders: 0.3% m/m) after 0.6% m/m prior month; inventories were up by 0.6% m/m (core orders: 0.4% m/m) after 1% m/m prior month.
US: GDP (Q2-21): 2.1% q/q vs 2.2% expected (prior: 2.0%)
- Marginal upward revision to the GDP, thanks to consumption and also more positive contribution from inventories.
US: Wholesale inventories (Oct.): 2.2% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 1.4%)
- Rebuilding of inventories has continued over the month; pace of rebuilding remained slow in the retail sector.
US: Personal income (Oct.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1%)
- Wages and compensation were up by 0.8% m/m after 0.8% m/m and 0.9% m/m respectively the past month.
- Disposable income was up by 0.3% m/m after -1.3% m/m the prior month.
US: Personal spending (Oct.): 1.3% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.6%)
- Confirming the rebound seen in retail sales, spending was firmer than expected over the month; both purchases of goods and services were stronger over the month.
- The saving ratio has declined further from 8.2% the prior month to 7.3%.
US: Core PCE (Oct.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.7% y/y to 4.1% y/y.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov.): 67.4 vs 66.9 expected (prior: 71.7)
- Final date have deteriorated less than in the initial estimates from the prior month.
- But both expectations and views on current situation have declined from the prior month.
- The main reasons for the decrease are due to deteriorating financial conditions, due to high inflation; expectations on future business have also decreased and willingness to purchase large items have also decreased from the prior month.
US: New home sales (Oct.): 745k vs 800k expected (prior: 742k revised from 800k)
- The total number has declined from the prior month, but the situation was more contrasted across districts, with two districts on the rise over the month while two others have decreased.
- Inventories have slightly increased, while prices remained sustained on average (21.1% y/y).
France: Business confidence (Nov.): 114 vs 112 expected (prior: 112 revised from 113)
- Confidence has slightly increased from the prior month, including in the specific manufacturing sector.
- Views have improved on own production and total orders; inventories have slightly increased, while prices have continued to rise and to increase further selling prices.
Germany: IFO (Nov.): 96.5 vs 96.7 expected (prior: 97.7)
- As seen in latest manufacturing PMI, confidence has slightly decreased from the prior month.
- Expectations and views on current situation have both slightly decreased from the prior month.
- By sector, views have declined in parallel on all sectors, including manufacturing, services and construction sectors.
Brazil: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 74.9 (prior: 76.3)
- Confidence has decreased from the prior month, in both current situation and expectations.
Turkey: Industrial confidence (Nov.): 112 (prior: 111.3)
- Sentiment has slightly increased from the prior month. Views have marginally improved (in SA data) on orders, inventories, output and export orders.
- Views on capex and global economic environment have slightly decreased from the prior month.