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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Friday 02 December
US: stronger payrolls and higher wages growth than expected

US: Non-farm payrolls (Nov.): 263k vs 200k expected (prior: 284k revised from 261k)

  • Job creations were higher than expected and prior months data were revised: job creations in Oct.: from 261 k to 284 k; Sept.: from 315 k to 269 k.
  • Volatile trends across sectors in terms of job creations: on the positive side, creations have accelerated for construction (from 9 k to 20 k), and in some services: education-health (from 80 k to 82 k), and leisure-hospitality (from 60 k to 88 k); jobs were higher also in public sector (from 36 k to 42 k).
  • On the negative side, jobs were lower in manufacturing (from 36 k to 14 K) and, within services, in business services (from 26 k to 6 k; temporary work was down for another month), and in retail trade-transport (from 4 k to -49 k).
  • The unemployment ratio was quite stable over the month at 3.655% after 3.688% the prior month.
  • Wage growth has accelerated more than expected and prior month data were revised up strongly: +0.6% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior (initial estimates for Oct.: 0.4% m/m); the yearly trend has regained to 5.1% y/y from 4.9% y/y (initial estimate at 4.7% for Oct.).
  • Labor data could appear as a source of concerns for the Fed, more than inflation data which have eased recently. These data could reopen an internal debate in the FOMC about hiking by 50 or 75 bp in the next Dec. Meeting.


Eurozone: PPI (Oct.): -2.9% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 1.6%)

  • Energy prices have declined by 6.9% m/m after 3.1% m/m the prior month; food and non-durable prices were up by 1.1% m/m after 0.9% m/m while prices in other sectors evolved in a 0.2/0.5% m/m monthly range.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 41.9% y/y the prior month to 30.8% y/y.


France: Industrial production (Oct.): -2.6% m/m (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.8%)

  • Production was heavily down due to a fall of activity in energy and electricity sectors over the month; auto production was also down by 5.8% m/m for the second month.


Germany: Trade Balance (Oct.): 6.9bn EUR vs 5.2bn expected (prior: 2.8bn revised from 3.7bn)

  • Trade surplus has regained on falling imports: -3.7% m/m after -2.2% m/m the prior month; nevertheless, exports have also declined by 0.6% m/m after -0.7% m/m the prior month. Only exports outside Europe were positive over the month.


Norway: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 1.6% vs 1.7% expected (prior: 1.6%)

  • Unemployed has declined further btu the ratio remained stable over the month.
Thursday 01 December
PMI-ISM manufacturing sentiment (Nov.): declining in the US, modest rise in the Eurozone

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.26): 225k vs 235k expected (prior: 241k revised from 240k)

  • Continuing claims: 1608 k after 1551 k the prior week.


US: Personal income (Oct.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Wages were up by 0.5% m/m (0.6% m/m the prior month) and disposable income was up by 0.7% m/m after 0.3% m/m; real disposable income was up by 0.4% m/m after being flat the prior month.
  • Besides the rise in wages, transfers and dividends have accelerated over the month adding support to disposable income.


US: Personal spending (Oct.): 0.8% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Purchases of goods were up by 1.4% m/m after 0.35% m/m prior month and services up by 0.5% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month.
  • Sustained purchases have led to a modest decrease in savings ration, from 2.4% to 2.3%.


US: Core PCE (Oct.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Monthly change was just below expectations; yearly trend has declined from 5.18% y/y the prior month to 4.98% y/y.


US: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 47.7 vs 47.6 expected (prior: 50.4)

  • Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month; sentiment has deteriorated on production, new orders and exports; it has also slowed down on employment.
  • Constraints on delivery have eased, helped by lower demand; costs and prices have continued to rise but at slower pace than prior months.


US: ISM Manufacturing (Nov.): 49 vs 49.7 expected (prior: 50.4)

  • Business confidence has declined more than expected; all major components have decreased over the month: lower production, new orders, backlog of orders, inventories and employment. Views on new export orders have regained over the month, but the sub-index stayed below 50.
  • More interestingly, prices paid have significantly decreased over the month.


UK: Nationwide house prices (Nov.): -1.4% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: -0.9%)

  • Prices have contracted further over the month and the downward trend is in place for te past 3 months.
  • Higher mortgages deteriorated affordability ratio and weigh on demand and prices.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 7.2% y/y the prior month to 4.4% y/y.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 46.5 vs 46.2 expected (prior: 46.2)

  • Business confidence has slightly regained from the prior month, but details offered a still bleak picture.
  • Opinions on production, new orders, exports, and employment have decreased from the prior month.
  • Prices pressures have eased from the past months, but costs continued to rise.


Switzerland: CPI (Nov.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Prices of energy (-1.3 % m/m after -2.5% m/m the prior month), food and in leisure have declined over the month, while rents and household goods-furniture have increased over the month. Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after being flat the prior month.
  • Yearly trend remained stable at 3% y/y for headline prices and has slightly increased for core inflation from 2.5% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y.


Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 53.9 vs 54 expected (prior: 54.9)

  • Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month, but it remained high compared to other developed countries despite a regular declining trend since May 2021.
  • Details were mixed: decreasing opinions backlog of orders, purchases, and inventories but ring views on output and employment.
  • Separately, PMI services index has marginally declined from 53.6 the prior month to 53.5; while opinions have increased on new orders and employment, they decreased on activity, backlog of orders and on prices.


Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 45.8 (prior: 46.6 revised from 46.8)

  • Business confidence has declined over the month; views on production, employment, exports have decreased while domestic orders were slightly better oriented.

Norway: PMI manufacturing has declined from 52.9 the prior month to 51.2 in Nov.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.5% vs 6.6% expected (prior: 6.6%)

  • The unemployment has declined further to reach new lows. The decrease was broad-based across all members.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 47.1 vs 47.3 expected (prior: 46.4)

  • Business sentiment has slightly regained from the prior month, but less than expected; the small improvement was seen in all countries, but it came lower than expected and all indices remained well below 50.
  • New orders have improved over the month, but the related index remained below 40; some improvement was seen in delivery with less pressure on supply chain and some easing in input costs. Uncertainty on the economy, rising inventories and high prices have weighted on demand to firms.


Germany: Retail sales (Oct.): -2.8% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 0.9%)

  • Sales were depressed in all sectors over the month and have reverted after past month data were revised up.


Italy: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 7.8% vs 8% expected (prior: 7.9%)

  • Unemployment ratio has continued to trend lower.


Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 43.4 vs 43 expected (prior: 42)

  • New orders have slightly regained over the month.


Brazil: GDP (Q3-22): 0.4% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1% revised from 1.2%)

  • Growth has weakened more than expected over the quarter; a slowdown in consumption (1% q/q after 2.1% q in Q2), while investment and government spending remained strong; net export contribution was negative imports have surged.
  • After large fiscal support, activity has moderated. A larger slowdown in industry, while services remained on sustained growth trend.


Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 45.7 (prior: 46.4)

  • The index decreased on lower new orders.
Wednesday 30 November
US employment: ADP & JOLTS surveys point to some adjustments in labor

US: ADP Employment change (Nov.): 127k vs 200k expected (prior: 239k)

  • Job creations have slowed down over the month; jobs have declined in small and large firms over the month, while they have increased in medium size firms.
  • Wages have strongly increased by 7.6% y/y and even by 15% y/y for new jobs according to the ADP survey.


US: GDP (Q3-22): 2.9% q/q vs 2.8% expected (prior: -0.6%)

  • GDP growth was slightly revied up over the quarter, while trend across sectors has continued to diverge.
  • Consumption was a bit firmer (1.7% q/q annualized instead of 1.4% after 2% q/q in Q2), thanks to less negative change in goods while services remained firm (up by 2.7%q; the contribution from consumption to Q3 GDP was at 1.2 pp.
  • Total investment was firmly negative due a fall in structures, while equipment was positive (marginally revised up; at 10.7% after -2% in Q2), and R&D was also up by 5.8%q; residential was largely negative (-26.8%q after -17.8%q in Q2).
  • Exports were also revised up and imports lower, so the net export contribution was very strong (2.93 pp after 0.16 pp in Q2).
  • Inventories have decreased form the prior quarter and the net contribution was strongly negative (-0.97 pp).
  • Net export and inventories contributions added volatility to GDP, while trend in domestic demand was very modest (up by 0.5% q versus 0.1%q in first estimates and after 0.5% q in Q2).
  • Domestic demand has adopted a weak growth trend, which could be probably in line with Fed and Powell desires, but other components add volatility to growth obliging the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance in place to be sure to see the desired slowdown in inflation.


US: Wholesale inventories (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inventories have increased particularly for durable goods over the month (1% m/m).


US: Chicago PMI (Nov.): 37.2 vs 47 expected (prior: 45.2)

  • The business confidence has sharply declined over the month and the index was back to low levels seen in April 2020.
  • Over the month, prices paid and inventories have increased while confidence has deteriorated on new orders and sightly on employment and production.


US: Pending home sales (Oct.): -4.6% m/m vs -5.3% expected (prior: -8.7% revised from -10.2%)

  • Sales have decreased less than expected (thanks to 1 region over 4 main districts) but the trend remained negative over the months.


US: JOLTS Job Openings (Oct.): 10334k vs 10250k expected (prior: 10687k revised from 10717k)

  • Job openings have continued to slow down over the past months; by sector demand was strong in trade and transport while it has declined over the month in business services and education and health; it remained stable for leisure and hospitality.
  • Hirings have decreased over the month as well as quitters.
  • Labor remained positive but underlying adjustments are slowly at work, which should lead to lower trend in job creations in the next months.


Eurozone: CPI estimate (Nov.): 10% y/y vs 10.4% expected (prior: 10.6%)

  • Inflation came lower than expected in these first estimates; monthly inflation was down by 0.1% m/m after 1.5% m/m the prior month (0.2% m/m expected).
  • Energy prices were down by 1.9% m/m, services also down by 0.3% m/m while food prices were up by 0.9% m/m and non-energy good prices were still up by 0.4% m/m.
  • Core inflation was flat over the month; yearly trend has declined from 10.6% y/y to 10% y/y and core inflation remained stable at 5% y/y.
  • Food prices could remain volatile in the next month, while energy prices will reflect at CPI level the various measures put in place in the different countries, and also progressively more favorable base effect on energy prices.
  • This is the first decline in headline inflation, but core is still resilient, as seen in the past months in the US; not enough for the ECB to change its current mood, meaning at least a 50 bp hike in the next meeting but also a high probability for another 75 bp.


Switzerland: KOF (Nov.): 89.5 vs 91.8 expected (prior: 90.9)

  • Business confidence continues to slow down; the index is now well below the 2018-19 levels and at close levels of index in March 20.


France: Consumer spending (Oct.): -2.8% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.2%)

  • Sales were negative in all major sectors over the month, reversing past months rebound.
  • The highest contraction was seen in durables (ex autos; down by 3.9% m/m after 4.9% m/m the prior month), in clothes and in energy consumption.
  • Trend in sales has deteriorated over the past months.


France: CPI (Nov.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Prices of food were highly volatile, coming lower (-3.3% m/m for fresh food) over the month, while energy prices were up by 1% m/m). Manufacturing prices were up by 0.4% m/m while services prices were just up by 0.1% m/m.
  • Yearly trend remained stable at 7.1% y/y according to this first estimates.


Germany: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 5.6% vs 5.5% expected (prior: 5.5%)

  • The unemployed has increased by 17 k over the month after 9 k the prior month, and the unemployment ratio has continued to increase from the lows of 5% seen in May.


Italy: CPI (Nov.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 3.8% revised from 4%)

  • Changes in prices came higher than expected but on the slower trend than the prior month.
  • Pressures were coming from prices of utilities for households (electricity) and food prices remained sustained.
  • Yearly trend has just marginally eased from 12.6% y/y the prior month to 12.5% y/y.


Spain: Retail sales (real) (Oct.): 1% y/y vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Sales were up by 0.4% m/m. but mainly driven by internet sales and small chain stores.


Poland: CPI (Nov.): 0.7% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.8%)

  • Food prices remained on sustained monthly trend while some decline was seen in other sectors.
  • The yearly trend has marginally declined from 17.9% y/y the prior month to 17.4% y/y.


Brazil: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 8.3% vs 8.5% expected (prior: 8.7%)

  • Unemployed has declined further over the month.


Turkey: GDP (Q3-22): -0.1% q/q vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.9% revised from 2.1%)

  • A slightly contraction due to falling net exports and capex, while consumption was slightly positive, and despite firmer public consumption over the quarter.
Tuesday 29 November
Eurozone: economic confidence edged higher in November & inflation slightly lower than expected

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Nov.): 100.2 vs 100.0 expected (prior: 102.2 revised from 102.5)

  • Present situation: 137.4 after 138.7
  • Expectations: 75.4 after 77.9
  • The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell to a four-month low.
  • The survey included a slight improvement in assessments of the current labor market: a net 32.8% said that jobs were plentiful, versus 31.8% a month earlier, but down from peaks in the mid-40s in mid-2021. Current assessment on the labor market is close to where it was before the pandemic-related tightening.

US: House price Index MoM (FHFA) (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs -1.2% expected (prior: -0.7%)

  • This house price index unexpectedly (marginally) increased in September, but the downward trend should resume in the coming months amid high mortgage rates and weakening demand.

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Sept.): 10.4% y/y vs 10.6% expected (prior: 13.1%)

  • According to this survey, prices dropped 1.2% m/m, the third consecutive decline.
  • The yearly change had reached a peak last April at 21.3%, down to 10.4% in September.

Eurozone: Economic confidence (Nov.): 93.7 vs 93.2 expected (prior: 92.7 revised from 92.5)

  • Industrial confidence: -2.0 vs -0.5 expected (prior: -1.2)
  • Service confidence: 2.3 vs 2.0 expected (prior: 2.1)
  • First increase since the start of the Ukraine conflict, which is in line with the latest PMI.
  • The rise was mostly driven by consumer confidence, which rose but remains at a depressed level by historical standards.
  • However, the survey showed a 0.8pt moved down in manufacturing confidence to -2.0, a 0.2pt rise in the services index to 2.3, an unchanged retail confidence index to -6.7 and a 0.3 decline in the construction index to 2.3.
  • Current levels are for now more consistent with an economic stagnation than a recession.

Germany: CPI (Nov Prel.): 0.0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1.1%)

  • CPI y/y: 11.3% as expected (prior: 11.6%)
  • As expected, annual inflation declined for the first time since June.
  • Lower oil prices were responsible for most of the decrease, with energy inflation declining to 38.4% y/y from 43.0% in October. In contrast, food prices continued their run, climbing 21% y/y after 20.3% y/y in October. Inflation for goods excluding food and energy also accelerated to 8.2% y/y from 7.7% in October while services price increases slowed to 3.7% y/y from 4.0%.
  • Inflation is likely to fall further in the coming months thanks to government's support to pay households' energy bills as well as base effects.

Spain: CPI (Nov. Prel.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • CPI y/y: 6.6% vs 7.1% expected (prior: 7.3%)
  • Core CPI: 6.3% y/y after 6.2%
  • Well below expectations, with the slowdown being driven by declines in electricity and fuel costs. However, core CPI edged higher in November.
  • Eurozone inflation will be reported tomorrow and is expected to show a slight moderation from the record high 10.6% registered in October.

Switzerland: GDP (Q3): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.3%)

  • GDP y/y: 0.5% vs 1.0% expected (prior: 2.2% revised from 2.8%)
  • Private consumption remained surprisingly strong (+0.7% q/q), despite headwinds from higher inflation. Government consumption grew 0.2% q/q. Equipment investment (+2.1% q/q) also contributed to growth, helped by an easing of supply disruptions, while construction investment continued to decline (-2% q/q).
  • Slightly negative GDP figures q/q are likely in Q4 and Q1.
Friday 25 November
Consumer confidence (Nov.): less depressed in Germany and on the rise in France and Italy

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Dec.): -40.2 vs -39.6 expected (prior: -41.9)

  • Index has marginally improved over the month from very depressed levels.
  • Opinions were slightly less depressed about future activity but willingness to buy has declined further.
  • Consumer confidence indices have rapidly and strongly declined facing energy and inflation concerns and probably looked too negative relative to activity; so not a surprise to see modest regain while real data should continue to weaken in Q4-22 and Q1-23.


Germany: GDP (Q3-22): 0.4% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Data were finally better than expected due to strong consumption in Q3.
  • Consumption was up by 1% q/q (0.9%q/q in Q2), and capex has slightly recovered (from -1.3% q/q to 0.2% q/q in Q3); exports have also rebounded (from 0.5% q/q in Q2 to 2% q/q in Q3).
  • This strong and positive performances should not be repeated in Q4, as a weak growth or a mild contraction is expected.


Italy: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 98.1 vs 91 expected (prior: 90.1)

  • A rebound in sentiment on all major components over the month.
  • Despite this rebound, the index remained as low as the levels seen in Q1-20.


Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Nov.): 102.5 vs 99.5 expected (prior: 100.7 revised from 100.4)

  • A strong rebound of the index over the month: views on current situation have deteriorated further, but expectations have strongly rebounded.
  • Views were more depressed on the short run, on orders from the prior month, but a rebound in production, orders and economic outlook is expected by businesses.


France: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 83 as expected (prior: 82 revised from 82)

  • Consumer confidence has marginally increased from the prior month but remained at very depressed levels.
  • Views were less negative from the prior month on financial situation, but inflation remained a concern and worries are rising about unemployment.


Spain: PPI (Oct.): -1.4% m/m (prior: 0%)

  • Prices of electricity and gas have declined over the month, but food and some prices of manufactured goods stayed on the rise.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 35.6% y/y the prior month to 26.1% y/y.


Poland: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 5.1% as expected (prior: 5.1%)

  • Unemployed has slightly decreased over the month, but the unemployment ratio was stable from the prior month.


Brazil: Current account (Oct.): -4625 M$ vs -4500 M$ expected (prior: -7120 M$ revised from -5678 M$)

  • Trade deficit has increased over the past month; foreign investment has also weakened (from USD 8850 M to 5541 M) but continued to be larger than current account deficit.


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