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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Friday 26 November
Resilient consumer confidence in France and Italy before news related to the new virus in South Africa

France: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 99 vs 98 expected (prior: 99)

  • Sentiment remained stable over the month; concerns were centered on deteriorating purchasing power due to higher inflation, while unemployment was a lower concern.
  • Virus developments in Europe and in the world could weigh down on sentiment, but lockdown or restrictions are still limited at this point of time.


Italy: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 117.5 vs 117 expected (prior: 118.4)

  • Sentiment has decreased from the prior month, but less than expected.
  • Concerns about the global current and future economic conditions have slightly increased from the prior month.


Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Nov.): 116 vs 114 expected (prior: 115.1 revised from 114.9)

  • Sentiment has increased from the prior month; a better outlook is seen on orders, both domestic and foreign orders, production and employment while sentiment was slightly more cautious from past month on economic outlook.


Eurozone: M3 (Oct.): 7.7% y/y vs 7.4% expected (prior: 7.5% revised from 7.4%)

  • M1 growth has eased from 11.1% m/m the prior month to 10.7% y/y and M2 growth marginally eased from 7.6% y/y to 7.5% y/y.
  • Loans to the private credit sector were up by 3.3% y/y after 3.2% y/y the prior month.


Switzerland: GDP (Q3-21): 1.7% q/q vs 1.6% expected (prior: 1.8%)

  • Growth remained firm in Q3 thanks to consumption, up by 2.7% q/q after 4% q/q in Q1.
  • Capex was down (-0.8% q/q after 2.1% q/q in Q1) and equipment was down by 1.3% q/q after 3.2% q/q). Net trade contribution has improved further, despite limited export performances (-0.1% q/q globally, but +0.6% q/q for goods), but imports were down by 3.1% q/q.
  • Downside risks could weigh on Q4 GDP growth due to rising contamination and from an expensive Swiss franc.
Thursday 25 November
Weakening consumer confidence in Germany


Germany: GDP (Q3-21): 1.7% q/q vs 1.8% expected (prior: 2%)

  • Final data were revised slightly lower from the initial estimates.
  • Growth was mainly driven by consumption over the quarter (6.2% q/q after 3.8%q/q); other sectors such as public consumption, investment, construction and net export contribution were negative in Q3-21.
  • Unit labor costs have increased by 1.4% q/q after -1.7% q/q in Q2.
  • Growth should stay moderate in Q4, with shortages in industry and uncertainties on virus, but a firmer growth trend is expected in 2022.


Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Dec.): -1.6 vs -1 expected (prior: 1 revised from 0.9)

  • Preliminary sentiment has pointed towards a significant decline, reflecting both concerns on virus and deteriorating purchasing power; last month confidence eased due to weakening business and income expectations.


Spain: PPI (Oct.): 6.1% m/m (prior: 5.4% revised from 5.2%)

  • Energy prices were up by 14% m/m, while they have increased by 0.3%-0.4% m/m in other sectors.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 23.8% y/y to 31.9% y/y.


Poland: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 5.5% as expected (prior: 5.6%)

  • Unemployed has decreased by 2.5% m/m after -2.7% m/m the previous month.


Norway: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 3.6% vs 3.9% expected (prior: 4%)

  • The unemployment ratio was back to the range seen in 2019.


Brazil: CPI (Nov.): 1.17% m/m vs 1.13% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • The IPCA index has increased less than in the prior month but was more sustained than expected.
  • Prices have strongly rebounded in some sectors such as household items, clothes, housing and transport-energy, while they came on lower monthly trend in other sectors.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated further, from 10.34% y/y the prior month to 10.73% y/y.


Brazil: Current account (Oct.): -4464 M$ vs -4862 M$ expected (prior: -1895 M$ revised from -1699 M$)

  • Current account deficit has significantly increased over the period; foreign direct investment has decreased from the prior month (from USD 4.6 M to 2.5 M).
Wednesday 24 November
US: strong declined in jobless claims; Germany: decreasing IFO index

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.20): 199k vs 260k expected (prior: 268k)

  • Continuing claims: 2049 k after 2080 k the prior week.


US: Durable goods orders (Oct.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.3%)

  • Defense orders and non-defense aircraft orders were highly volatile in past months and were both sharply down over the month; more positively, core orders (orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft) were up by 0.6% m/m after upward revisions to prior month (1.3% m/m): the trend in capex is expected to remain positive, as mentioned by positive PMI data.
  • Shipments were up by 1.5% m/m (core orders: 0.3% m/m) after 0.6% m/m prior month; inventories were up by 0.6% m/m (core orders: 0.4% m/m) after 1% m/m prior month.


US: GDP (Q2-21): 2.1% q/q vs 2.2% expected (prior: 2.0%)

  • Marginal upward revision to the GDP, thanks to consumption and also more positive contribution from inventories.


US: Wholesale inventories (Oct.): 2.2% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 1.4%)

  • Rebuilding of inventories has continued over the month; pace of rebuilding remained slow in the retail sector.


US: Personal income (Oct.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1%)

  • Wages and compensation were up by 0.8% m/m after 0.8% m/m and 0.9% m/m respectively the past month.
  • Disposable income was up by 0.3% m/m after -1.3% m/m the prior month.


US: Personal spending (Oct.): 1.3% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Confirming the rebound seen in retail sales, spending was firmer than expected over the month; both purchases of goods and services were stronger over the month.
  • The saving ratio has declined further from 8.2% the prior month to 7.3%.


US: Core PCE (Oct.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.7% y/y to 4.1% y/y.


US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov.): 67.4 vs 66.9 expected (prior: 71.7)

  • Final date have deteriorated less than in the initial estimates from the prior month.
  • But both expectations and views on current situation have declined from the prior month.
  • The main reasons for the decrease are due to deteriorating financial conditions, due to high inflation; expectations on future business have also decreased and willingness to purchase large items have also decreased from the prior month.


US: New home sales (Oct.): 745k vs 800k expected (prior: 742k revised from 800k)

  • The total number has declined from the prior month, but the situation was more contrasted across districts, with two districts on the rise over the month while two others have decreased.
  • Inventories have slightly increased, while prices remained sustained on average (21.1% y/y).


France: Business confidence (Nov.): 114 vs 112 expected (prior: 112 revised from 113)

  • Confidence has slightly increased from the prior month, including in the specific manufacturing sector.
  • Views have improved on own production and total orders; inventories have slightly increased, while prices have continued to rise and to increase further selling prices.


Germany: IFO (Nov.): 96.5 vs 96.7 expected (prior: 97.7)

  • As seen in latest manufacturing PMI, confidence has slightly decreased from the prior month.
  • Expectations and views on current situation have both slightly decreased from the prior month.
  • By sector, views have declined in parallel on all sectors, including manufacturing, services and construction sectors.


Brazil: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 74.9 (prior: 76.3)

  • Confidence has decreased from the prior month, in both current situation and expectations.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (Nov.): 112 (prior: 111.3)

  • Sentiment has slightly increased from the prior month. Views have marginally improved (in SA data) on orders, inventories, output and export orders.
  • Views on capex and global economic environment have slightly decreased from the prior month.
Tuesday 23 November
Solid PMIs in the US, eurozone and UK


US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov. Prel.): 59.1 as expected (prior: 58.4)

  • The increase was supported by strong output and orders while finished-goods inventories shrank at the fastest pace since May 2020, which suggests that production will have to pick up to meet demand.
  • The input prices gauge rose to a new all-time high (data back to 2007).

US: Markit Services PMI (Nov. Prel.): 57.0 vs 59.0 expected (prior: 58.7)

  • New business continued to grow, but at a slower pace than in previous months.


US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Nov.): 11 as expected (prior: 12)

  • Indicators on activity and prices were nearly all slightly down from October.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov. Prel.): 58.6 vs 57.4 expected (prior: 58.3)

  • Germany: 57.6 vs 56.9 expected (prior: 57.8)
  • France: 54.6 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 53.6)
  • Both the manufacturing and services PMIs unexpectedly increased in November.
  • In the manufacturing sector, new orders and employment picked up, but backlogs of work further intensified while input and output prices rose to record highs, indicating a further rise in inflation pressure. Still, the indicator on supply delivery times edged higher, suggesting some improvement on supply chain issues. On the other hand, expectations of future output moderated to the weakest level since January.
  • This good surprise must be taken with a grain of salt as the newly introduced mobility restrictions in Austria, the Netherlands, Ireland and Germany are most probably not fully reflected in this survey. They will inevitably weigh somewhat on growth in Q4.

Eurozone: PMI Services (Nov. Prel.): 56.6 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 54.6)

  • Germany: 53.4 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 52.4)
  • France: 58.2 vs 55.5 expected (prior: 56.6)


UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov. Prel.): 58.2 vs 57.3 expected (prior: 57.8)

  • New orders, employment and future output all improved in November, going against the overall weakening trend post the summer reopenings, suggesting some renewed momentum in the sector despite supply constraints.
  • Input and output prices continued to soar in November, both reaching new highs and pointing to elevated goods price inflation in the coming months.

UK: Markit Services PMI (Nov. Prel.): 58.6 vs 58.5 expected (prior: 59.1)

  • Slight decline with mixed sub-components: employment fell by 2.7 points (still above its historical average), but new business and new export orders both showed improvements.
  • This survey may reassure some members of the MPC about the durability of the recovery.
Monday 22 November
US existing home sales on the rise, as well as prices

US: NY Empire manufacturing (Nov.): 30.9 vs 22 expected (prior: 19.8)

  • Sentiment has strongly rebounded on current situation, but it has declined (from 52 to 36.9) on a 6-month horizon.
  • Situation has improved on the short run, (rising orders, shipments and employment) with some easing in constraints (lower delivery times); but prices remained on the rise.
  • Prices remained on the rise on a 6-month horizon, but orders and employment has decreased after strong rebound the prior month.
  • Despite turning highly volatile in prior months, the index remained at a high level.


Sweden: CPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Prices of food, transport healthcare and leisure have strongly increased over the month, while prices of housing, communication and goods have declined. Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.8% y/y the prior month to 3.1% y/y. This put upside pressure on the central banks.


Poland: CPI (Oct.): 1.1% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Final data were higher than first estimates; inflation has surged due to strong prices in energy, transport, utilities and also for clothes.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 5.9% y/y to 6.8% y/y.


Poland: Current account (Sept.): -1339Mio EUR vs -1330Mio expected (prior: -1441Mio revised from -1686Mio)

  • Deficit has moderated but remained large in history as imports have increased strongly despite positive export performances.
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Insight 22.11.2021

CRISPR: the implications of gene editing

In the latest episode of UBP’s Expert series, Norman Villamin, CIO Wealth Management and Pierre Corby, Equity Analyst Healthcare, invited Dr Samarth Kulkarni, CEO of CRISPR Therapeutics, to discuss the challenges and investment opportunities offered by medical innovation, specifically in the field of gene editing.