US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug.): 55.1 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 51.5)
- First estimates of consumer confidence have shown a rebound after depressed numbers. Despite the rebound the index remained at very low level.
- Sentiment on current situation has decreased after a rebound the prior month, but expectations have strongly rebounded from the very low levels seen over the past two months.
- Inflation expectations on 5-10y have marginally increased from 2.9% to 3% (A peak to 3.1% in June was mentioned by Powell in FOMC decisions); 12-month inflation expectations have decreased from 5.2% to 5% y/y.
- Sentiment on household financial situation has slightly improved, and notably income is expected to improve. Views on labor have turned more positive after some worries the prior month. Gas prices are expected to decline in the future.
- Views on future economic situation have improved after some weakening the prior month.
- Despite improving global sentiment, willingness to buy autos, houses and large items has decreased from the prior month.
UK: GDP (Q2-22): -0.1% q/q vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.8%)
- GDP has contracted over the quarter, but less than expected.
- Consumption was down by 0.2% q/q after 0.6% in Q4-21; government consumption was down by 2.9% q/q after -1.3% q/q in Q4.
- Positive surprises came from still sustained firms’ capex, up by 3.8% q/q after -0.6% q/q and positive net trade contribution to GDP (1 pp after -4pp in Q4), thanks to a decline in imports over the quarter.
- Separately, GDP estimates for June was down by 0.6% q/q, due to slower activity in some sectors related to Jubilee. A return to positive activity is excited by July.
- Activity in Q3 should benefit from more consumer-tourism spending (and positive calendar effect) but recession risks could increase again in Q4, with slower domestic demand and persistent high inflation while tail risk is fueled by concerns on energy shortage.
UK: Industrial production (June): -0.9% m/m vs -1.4% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 0.9%)
- Energy and electricity production was up over the month, while other manufacturing sector was down (-1.6% m/m), driven by the fall in intermediate and non-durable consumer goods activity.
Sweden: CPI (July): -0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1.2%)
- Food prices were up by 3.4% m/m after 1.7% the prior month, but all other major sectors have shown a contraction in prices, notably for oil and fuel prices. Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month.
- Yearly trend has declined from 8.5% y/y to 8%y/y; trend in core inflation has accelerated from 6.1% y/y o 6.6% y/y.
Eurozone: Industrial production (June): 0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 2.1% revised from 0.8%)
- Activity was firmer than expected and prior month data revised up.
- A strong rebound in capital equipment and a modest positive activity in energy have more than compensated for the fall in consumer goods and intermediate sectors.
- Some easing in industry disruption has fueled the past two months rebound in activity, but risks remain ahead.
France: CPI (July): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9%)
- Final data confirmed a decline in energy prices and clothes over the month, while prices for food were up by 1% m/m and services up by 1.3% m/m due to transport costs.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 6.5% y/y prior month to 6.8% y/y.
France: Unemployment rate (Q2-22): 7.4% vs 7.3% expected (prior: 7.3%)
- Unemployed has slightly increased over the quarter and the unemployment ratio has also slightly increased; the ratio remained at low level.
Spain: CPI (July): -0.6% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.9%)
- A large fall in prices of clothes, energy-transport and communication over the month; monthly rises were centered on housing, leisure and restaurants prices.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 10% y/y the prior month to 10.7% y/y.
Poland: CPI (July): 0.5% m/m (prior: 1.5%)
- Details offered mixed picture on prices with strong rises over the month on food, electricity, housing and leisure while also large monthly declines in clothes, transport and fuel energy prices.
- Yearly trend has marginally increased from 15.5% y/y prior month to 15.6% y/y.
Turkey: Industrial production (June): 1.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.5%)
- Activity has rebounded in the manufacturing sector, up by 1.6% m/m (0.8% m/m the prior month); mining activity was negative over the past two months.