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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
Monday 03 October
Falling US ISM index and eurozone PMI manufacturing

US: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 52 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.5)

  • Final data were slightly better than initially estimated pointing to modest improvement in business conditions.
  • Opinions have increased on both production and orders but at a slow pace; views on exports have deteriorated. Employment remained positive while prices remained on the rise.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (Sept.): 50.9 vs 52 expected (prior: 52.8)

  • Business sentiment has significantly decreased for the prior month, after being more resilient than the PMI index in past months.
  • A large fall in opinions on new orders (index has fallen from 51.3 to 47), backlog of orders, employment and new export orders; views on production was quite stable or slightly on the rise, as well as inventories. Prices paid have declined from the prior month.

 

US: Construction spending (Aug.): -0.7% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.4%)

  • Residential construction was down by 1% m/m after -1.7% m/m the prior month; non-residential construction was also down by 0.4% m/m after 0.7% m/m.

 

UK: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 48.4 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 47.3)

  • The final index was slightly better than the prior month level.
  • Nevertheless, details were not positive as the fall in sentiment has continued but only at a slower pace: falling production, orders and a related rise in inventories.
  • Exports have fallen on lower demand from US, EU and China.
  • Employment has increased but prices and costs remained on a rising trend.

 

Switzerland: CPI (Sept,.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Inflation has declined thanks to falling prices of oil, food, transport and hotels prices.
  • Core inflation was flat after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 3.5% y/y prior month to 3.3% y/y, and core inflation from 2.8% to 2.7% y/y.
  • This should give more comfort to the central bank, but nevertheless it should continue to hike in parallel with the ECB.

 

Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 57.1 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 56.4)

  • Contrary to expectations, business sentiment has rebounded over the month.
  • Opinions were more positive on production, orders and also on rising prices and inventories. Views on employment were marginally on the rise from the prior month; on the negative side, imports were down.
  • Business sentiment has not yet reflected the slowdown in final export demand, but this should be seen after some delay.
  • In parallel, PMI services were down from 56.9 the prior month to 52.3; views have decreased on activity, orders and prices while employment remained on positive trend.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 49.2 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 50.2)

  • Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month on sharp fall in orders and exports, and slower production.
  • Prices and employment remained on rising trend.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 48.4 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 49.6)

  • Business sentiment has declined further over the month, even slightly more than initially estimated.
  • The final index has declined more in Germany and Spain from the prior month.
  • The fall was driven by lower production and orders; demand has decreased on rising uncertainty, rising inflation and energy costs.
  • Employment has marginally increased from the prior month.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 43 vs 40.2 expected (prior: 40.9)

  • The index has regained from depressed levels; confidence remained at very low level.

 

Turkey: PPI (Sept.): 4.78% m/m (prior: 2.14%$)

  • Renewed strong rises in prices due to food and electricity and water costs.
  • Yearly trend has surged to 151.5% y/y after 143.7% y/y he prior month.

 

Turkey: CPI (Sept.): 3.08% m/m vs 3.15% expected (prior: 1.46%)

  • A strong monthly surge due to rising food, education, communication and mainly electricity and water prices.
  • Yearly trend has surged from 80.2% y/y the prior month to 83.45% y/y.
Friday 30 September
US core inflation again above expectations

US: Personal income (Aug.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Revised data shows a weaker pace of wage growth and a lower savings rate this year (3.5% in August, unchanged from July) – not positive for the consumption outlook.

US: Personal spending (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Personal spending increased more than expected in August. Real spending gains were mostly seen in services, while spending on goods fell.

US: Core PCE (Aug.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Core PCE y/y: 4.9% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.7% revised from 4.6%)
  • PCE deflator (headline inflation): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1%); 6.2% y/y vs 6.0% expected (prior: 6.4% revised from 6.3%)
  • The higher-than-expected core PCE continues to argue for an aggressive tightening from the Fed.
  • Inflation should slow in September, but only modestly.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sept. F): 58.6 vs 59.5 expected (prior: 58.2)

  • Current conditions: 59.7 vs 58.9 expected (prior: 58.6)
  • Expectations: 58.0 vs 59.9 expected (prior: 58.0)
  • Consumer confidence was finally nearly unchanged from the previous month.
  • On the positive side, consumer expected prices will climb at an annual rate of 2.7% over the next 5-10 years, the lowest since April 2021.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Sept.): 10.0% y/y vs 9.7% expected (prior: 9.1%)

  • CPI m/m: 1.2% vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.6%)
  • Core CPI: 4.8% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.3%)
  • Inflation was above expectations for the fifth straight month, resulting in the first ever reading of double-digit inflation and adding pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates aggressively.
  • Energy and food were again the main drivers of inflation, but core inflation also reached an all-time high.

France: CPI (Sept Prel.): -0.5% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • CPI y/y: 6.2% vs 6.6% expected (prior: 6.6%)
  • Inflation slowed more than expected in France (as in Spain).

France: Consumer spending (Aug.): 0.0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.8%)

  • Y/y: -3.8% vs -2.7% expected (prior: -4.6% revised from -4.3%)
  • Consumer spending was unchanged in August, but is still down quite meaningfully y/y.

Germany: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 5.5% as expected (prior: 5.5%)

  • Unemployment change: +14k vs +20k expected (prior: +26k)
  • The labour market slightly softened in August and September, but this is far from dramatic at this stage.
  • Vacancies fell by another 11k, which is the fourth decline in a row, but this leaves the level of vacancies at very high levels.

Italy: CPI (Aug.): 1.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

  • CPI y/y: 9.5% as expected (prior: 9.1%)
  • Inflation continued to rise, but in line with expectations.

UK: GDP (Q2 F.): 0.2% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • GDP y/y: 4.4% vs 2.9% expected (prior: 8.7%)
  • The UK economy did not contract in Q2 according to the new estimates.
  • Private consumption also grew slightly (+0.1 q/q vs -0.2% in the previous estimate).

Switzerland: KOF (Sept): 93.8 vs 85.0 expected (prior: 93.5 revised from 86.5)

  • The revised data shows that this leading indicator actually increased in August (instead of a significant decline), which means that it edged marginally higher in September.
Thursday 29 September
Weakening confidence in Eurozone; German inflation estimates above 10% y/y

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept. 24): 193k vs 215k expected (prior: 209k revised from 213k)

  • Continuing claims: 1347 k after 1376 k the prior week.

US: GDP (Q2-22): -0.6% q/q as expected (prior: -1.6%)

  • Global estimates have not changed at GDP level, but a few changes at the sector level in this third and last estimate.
  • Consumption was firmer (2% q/q after 1.5% in previous estimates; 1.3% in Q1) thanks to stronger services (4.6% after 2.1% in Q1).
  • Final estimates were less negative on equipment (-2% vs -2.7% q/q in 2nd estimate, but more negative for residential (-17.8% vs -16.2% q/q).
  • Inventories contribution in Q2 was less negative than initially estimated (-1.9 pp drag in final Q2 data); net exports contribution was revised down but still positive (1.16 pp in Q2 after -0.26 pp in Q1).
  • No major change except a more positive view on Q2 consumption.

Eurozone: Business climate (Sept.): -0.4 vs -0.7 expected (prior: 1 revised from 1.1)

  • Business confidence has decreased less than feared from the prior month.
  • The detailed picture was mixed from the prior month: falling exports, rising prices versus only a modest decrease in sentiment on production and stable views on orders.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Sept.): -28.8 as expected (prior: -25)

  • Confidence has deteriorated further from the prior month.
  • A sharp decline in financial situation, economic outlook and rising concerns on inflation and unemployment.

Eurozone: Service confidence (Sept.): 4.9 vs 7 expected (prior: 8.1 revised from 8.7)

  • A sharp fall of confidence in services due to decreasing current and future demand.

Italy: PPI (Aug.): 3.5% m/m (prior: 6.5%)

  • Nondomestic prices were up by 2.8% m/m after 5% m/m the prior month; yearly trend has accelerated further from 45.9% the prior month to 50.5% y/y.

Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Preliminary data have pointed towards no change in prices over the month.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 10.5% y/y the prior month to 9.3% y/y.

Germany: CPI (Sept.): 2.2% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Inflation has continued to accelerate according to preliminary data; food, energy and clothes prices have shown a large monthly rebound.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further, from 8.8% y/y the prior month to 10.9% y/y.
Wednesday 28 September
Further decline in Eurozone consumer confidence

US: Wholesale inventories (Aug.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inventories remained on sustained rise in all major sectors over the month, from wholesale to retail sectors.

US: Pending home sales (Aug.): -2% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -1%)

  • Sales have declined further in all districts, except one (West) over 4.
  • Rising mortgage rates have weighed down on activity.

France: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 79 vs 80 expected (prior: 82)

  • Confidence has declined further on deteriorating financial situation, employment and rising preference for saving.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -42.5 vs -39 expected (prior: -36.8 revised from -36.5)

  • Preliminary confidence index has sharply deteriorated from the prior month.
  • Views on financial situation and future incomes have strongly declined from the prior month and willingness to buy has decreased.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 94.8 vs 95.1 expected (prior: 98.3)

  • A sharp fall in confidence on deteriorating global and personal situation.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 101.3 vs 102.2 expected (prior: 104 revised from 104.3)

  • A sharp fall in domestic and foreign orders; falling sentiment on current production.

Sweden: Retail sales (Aug.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Sales have contracted, but less than expected; sales of durables goods were negatively impacted by rising rates and high inflation.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 49.7 vs 53 expected (prior: 57.8 revised from 56.3)

  • Confidence has sharply declined over the month; views on personal financial situation, the economic outlook and unemployment have deteriorated from the prior month.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 110 (prior: 115.7 revised from 116.4)

  • Business sentiment has sharply declined over the month. Nevertheless, the index stayed high, and in the range seen in 2018-19.

Norway: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -2% revised from -2.1%).

Tuesday 27 September
US: better than expected consumer confidence (Conf. Board), Richmond Fed index and new home sales

US: Durable goods orders (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • A large fall in orders of civil aircrafts, but a rebound in core capital goods orders (non-defense and ex aircraft), up by 1.3% m/m after -0.6% m/m the prior month, due to a rebound in electrical equipment orders (1% m/m after -0.6% m/m).
  • Shipments were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.2% m/m (core capital goods: 0.3% m/m after 0.6% m/m); inventories stayed on a 0.2% m/m trend (core capital goods: 0.3% m/m after 0.4% m/m).

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (July): 16.06% y/y vs 17.05% expected (prior: 18.66% revised from 18.65%)

  • Prices of houses have declined from the prior month; monthly, prices have contracted for the first time since many months (-0.44% m/m after 0.20% m/m the prior month).
  • All districts, except 2 over 20 districts, have still shown double-digit figures for yearly trend; just have just passed below 10% y/y.
  • Further decline in prices should result from the Fed's strategy.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Sept.): 108 vs 104.6 expected (prior: 103.6 revised from 103.2)

  • Surprisingly, consumer confidence has rebounded after lows seen in June-July.
  • Sentiment on current conditions has increased from 145.3 the prior month to 149.6, and expectations from 75.8 to 80.3. This index was back to its Feb. level.
  • Views have turned more positive on labor (jobs easy to get) after a fall in June-July. Business conditions and employment were seen as being more positive after a period of weakness.
  • Willingness to buy has increased on autos and major items, while the index remained cautious on houses.
  • Inflation expectations (separate question non included in the index) has declined from 7% to 6.8% y/y.
  • The easing in energy prices and a still sustained trend in job creations and wages have fueled this monthly rebound in confidence; this is not what M. Powell has mentioned regarding the trend expected on the future economy, i.e. pointing towards more pain in the real economy and a rebalancing (slower job creations) labor.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Sept.): 0 vs -10 expected (prior: -8)

  • Business sentiment has improved from the prior month and the index was back to its July level.
  • On both current situation and 6-months views, improving sentiment was seen for shipments, orders, business conditions and capex. Some decline is seen and expected on inflation (both prices paid and received).
  • Views on employment has moderated from the prior month.

US: New home sales (Aug.): 685k vs 600k expected (prior: 532k revised from 511k)

  • Sales were stronger than expected over the month; sales have increased in all 4 districts but driven by strong sales in South district (467 k).
  • Inventories have declined and some correction in prices were seen, up by 8% y/y after 14.9% y/y the prior month (median data) and monthly change was negative (-6.3% m/m).

Eurozone: M3 (Aug.): 6.1% y/y vs 5.4% expected (prior: 5.7% revised from 5.5%)

  • Growth of monetary aggregates has accelerated over the prior month after period of slowdown.
  • M1 growth was up by 6.8% y/y and M2 up by 6.3% y/y after 5.9% y/y prior month.
  • Credit to private sector was up by 5.5% y/y after 5.2% y/y. Withing credit, consumer credit growth (card and housing loans) has shown some slowdown, while credit to non-financial corporates has accelerated regularly since June (up by 7.8% y/y after 6.6% y/y).
  • Most dynamic part of credit to corporate was below 1-year category and up by 18% y/y.

Brazil: CPI (Sept.): -0.37% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.73%)

  • Prices of food, energy-transport and communication have sharply declined over the month; on the opposite, prices of housing, health care and personal expenses remained on sustained monthly change.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 9.6% y/y the prior month to 7.96% y/y.
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