Market insight

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct. 16): 290k vs 297k expected (prior: 296k revised from 293k)

• Continuing claims: 2481 k after 2603 k prior week.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Oct.): 23.8 vs 25 expected (prior: 30.7)

• Sentiment has weakened from the prior month; highly volatile components due to still high constraints on production and delivery in the short run and related volatility on orders, inventories and employment.
• Some components as new orders were volatile but less negative than headline index

US: Existing home sales (Sept.): 6.29M vs 6.1M expected (prior: 5.88M)

• Sales have regained more than expected over the month; sales have increased in all major districts and inventories have declined.
• Prices remained high, the yearly trend being up by 13.3% y/y.

France: Business confidence (Oct.): 113 vs 110 expected (prior: 111)

• Global confidence index has regained from the prior month, while manufacturing index remained stable.
• Sentiment on production was stable but it has turned less negative on both domestic and foreign orders.
• Separately, the index on services has regained over the month after weakening trend.
• The global index remained close to its highest levels (June 2021; end of 2017).

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Oct.): -4.8 vs -5 expected (prior: -4)

• Preliminary index has pointed to some decline in confidence, probably reflecting deteriorating purchasing power and uncertain economic outlook.

Switzerland: M3 (Sept.): 3.2% y/y vs 3.1% expected (prior: 3.2%)

• Monetary aggregates remained on stable trend; on the opposite, M1 pace has accelerated from 5.8% y/y the prior month to 6.1% y/y.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 8.8% vs 8.6% expected (prior: 8.8%)

• Unemployed has slightly declined over the month, but the unemployment ratio has remained stable.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 76.8 (prior: 79.7)

• Sentiment has declined over the month, and the index was back to its low level.
• The decrease was broad-based across components and driven lower by a sharp fall in financial situation and future economic outlook.

Poland: Retail sales (Sept.): -2.4% m/m vs -2.5% expected (prior: -1%)

• Picture was mixed across products over the month: rising sales for autos, pharma and households but sharp decline in other sectors. Yearly trend was quite stable around 5.1% y/y.

UK: CPI (Sept.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Monthly change remained below expectations; prices of clothes were up by 2% m/m, housing up by 1% m/m while transport and holidays packages were down over the month and energy prices only up by 0.2% m/m.
• Yearly trend was quite stable at 3.1% y/y after 3.2% y/y the prior month.
• Upside risks remained in place (4-5% y/y) due to rising energy prices and costs of disruption in trade-industry to impact next data, but these data could give some patience to BoE before the first lifting in key rates.

UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): 0.4% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.4%)

• Monthly rise was more limited than expected; prices of fuels purchased were down by 3.7% m/m.
• Yearly trend has just slightly accelerated from 11.2% y/y the prior month to 11.4% y/y.

UK: PPI Output prices (Sept.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Prices were in line with expectations; coke and oil prices were up by 1.5% m/m.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 6% y/y the prior month to 6.7% y/y.

Eurozone: CPI (Sept.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Inflation has been confirmed up by 0.5% m/m; while food prices were down by 0.1% m/m, energy prices were up by 1.3% m/m and manufactured goods ex energy up by 2.3% m/m; prices of services were down by 0.6% m/m.
• Yearly trend was up by 3.4% y/y after 3% the prior month. Core inflation was up by 1.9% y/y after 1.6% y/y the prior month.
• Prices of energy rise should push yearly trend above 4% y/y; more time will be needed to see significant decline next year. The ECB will be obliged to revise up its inflation forecasts in its next meeting

Germany: PPI (Sept.): 2.3% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.6%)

• Prices ex energy were up by only0.4% m/m after 1% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated further, from 12% y/y prior month to 14.2% y/y.

Poland: PPI (Sept.): 0.7%m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)

• Sustained monthly rise due to higher prices of manufactured goods, gas and electricity.
• Yearly trend has accelerated further from 9.6% y/y to 10.2% y/y.

Poland: Industrial production (Sept.): 11% m/m vs 10.2% expected (prior: -2.5%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded on all major sectors during the month. Activity remained highly volatile during the pandemic and the reopening process.

US: Housing starts (Sept.): 1555k vs 1615k expected (prior: 1580k revised from 1615k)

• Data have declined versus expectation of stable trend, and past month data were also revised down; despite some improvement in other indicators in housing, housing starts and building permits have shown volatile and weak trend in prior months.
• The major part of the monthly slowdown in building permits (from 1721 k prior month to 1589 k) and starts was coming from multifamily houses, while data on single family have stabilized on housing starts.

Switzerland: Trade balance (Sept.): 5.05 Bn CHF (prior: 5.13Bn)

• Trade surplus has moderated from the prior month due to rising nominal imports and declining nominal exports over the month.
• In real terms, exports were up by 0.4% m/m, while imports were down by 0.8% m/m; changes in prices have reduced the monthly trade surplus.

US: Industrial production (Sept.): -1.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.4%)

• Activity was weak, and past month data revised lower, due to negative impact of disruption in different sectors.
• Except machinery, activity has contracted in all other sector, and more particularly autos (-7% m/m) and also utility (electricity down by 3.9% m/m). Hurricane had also negative impact in some sectors, such as chemicals and energy.
• Industrial activity should progressively improve, but at different speed across sectors.

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 80 vs 75 expected (prior: 76)

• Sentiment has rebounded, back to the levels seen in July; opinions on present and future sales have rebounded from the previous month.

Poland: Core inflation (Sept.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• As seen in headline prices, core prices have accelerated on a monthly and yearly basis; yearly trend was up by 4.2% y/y after 3.9% y/y the prior month.