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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Tuesday 24 May
Declining business sentiment in manufacturing and services

US: Manufacturing PMI (May): 57.5 vs 57.7 expected (prior: 59.2)

  • Business sentiment has decreased on slower production and new orders from the prior month.
  • Costs have continued to rise.


US: Services PMI (May): 53.5 vs 55.2 expected (prior: 55.6)

  • Sentiment has significantly declined over the month: rising prices and slower demand after the post-pandemic rebound have weighed down on the outlook; prices remained on the rise. Employment remained positively oriented.


US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (May): -9 vs 10 expected (prior: 14)

  • A sharp reversal in sentiment from the prior month; opinions have deteriorated on current situation on all major sub-components such as new orders and shipments.
  • The 6-month view has also declined, but the index stayed positive; lower new orders and lower business conditions have driven the decrease.


US: New home sales (Apr.): 591k vs 749k expected (prior: 709k revised from 763k)

  • A large fall in sales from the prior month; levels were back to 2019 pace of sales.
  • The fall was seen in all regions and inventories have rebounded. Prices remained sustained (19.6% y/y for median prices) and have shown just moderate easing from 21% y/y the prior month.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (May): 54.4 vs 54.7 expected (prior: 55.5)

  • Flash estimates have decreased more in France than in Germany over the month. The index pointed to decreasing confidence on future activity and weakening new orders. Disruption related to war in Europe and to China is mentioned as constraints on production.
  • Prices have increased further but the pace was seen as moderating after some moderation in costs. Employment remained on the rise.


Eurozone: PMI Services (May): 56.3 vs 57.4 expected (prior: 57.7)

  • Sentiment has weakened after the strong rebound following the end of the pandemic.
  • While demand remained strong for travel-leisure, i has decreased in services for industrial and finance sectors.
  • The index has more declined in Germany than in France over the month in flash estimates.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (May): 54.6 vs 55 expected (prior: 55.8)

  • Business confidence has decreased further as new orders and exports have decreased and activity still faced disruption from China and war in Europe.


UK: PMI Services (May): 51.8 vs 57 expected (prior: 58.9)

  • Sentiment has strongly decreased over the month as expectations have declined from the prior month; high prices and slower demand have weighed down on confidence but demand for leisure remained sustained.


France: Business confidence (May): 106 vs 105 expected (prior: 106)

  • While total business confidence was stable, confidence in the manufacturing sector has decreased from 108 the prior month to 106; new orders have decreased, and opinions have declined on future production.
  • The index has decreased from the latest high levels, but the manufacturing index remained above the levels seen in 2019.


Brazil: CPI (May): 0.59% m/m vs 0.45% expected (prior: 1.73%)

  • Housing -energy costs have decreased over the month, but prices of clothes, healthcare and food remained sustained over the month.
  • Yearly trend has increased further from 12.03% y/y the prior month to 12.2%.
Monday 23 May
German IFO better than expected

Germany: IFO (May): 93 vs 91.4 expected (prior: 91.9 revised from 91.8)

  • Business confidence has regained contrary to expectations.
  • Sentiment on current situation has rebounded after two-months decline, and the index was back to its Feb. level.
  • Expectation index has stabilized (86.9 after 86.8 the prior month) but remained in depressed territory.
  • By sector, confidence has rebounded in manufacturing and in services; the index for retail trade and construction was less negative than the prior month.
  • Sub-components pointed to remaining downside risks in the future, while activity was not so negative in the short term as feared.


Switzerland: M3 (Apr.): -0.1% y/y (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)

  • Growth trend in monetary aggregates has regularly slowed down over the past months and has turned negative for M3.
  • M1 growth has slowed from 4.2% to 3.3% and M2 trend from 0.7% to 0% y/y over the month.


Poland: Retail sales (Apr.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 16.4%)

  • Sales have reversed after strong and broad-based rebound the prior month; autos sales and household goods have turned negative while food and clothes remained positive over the month.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (May): 107 (prior: 107.7)

  • Business confidence has eased further and stayed in a falling trend.
  • In detail, the picture was mixed as the fall was driven by lower orders, inventories and exports, while sentiment has improved for production, employment and also for global outlook
Friday 20 May
UK: depressed consumer confidence but better than expected retail sales

UK: GFK consumer confidence (May): -40 vs -39 expected (prior: -38)

  • Consumer confidence has declined further, and the index is now well below the low levels reached in 2020.
  • Fall in sentiment was driven by decreasing opinions on both economic and personal financial situation.


UK: Retail sales (Apr.): 1.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -1.2% revised from -1.4%)

  • After two negative monthly date, sales have rebounded, driven up by food, clothes and non-specialized stores.
  • The data have shown more resilient trend than expected but deteriorating purchasing power may weigh down on purchases in the future and the BoE will be obliged to continue to hike.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (May): -21.1 vs -21.5 expected (prior: -22)

  • First estimates have pointed to very modest improvement of consumer confidence, but still close to very depressed levels, in line with the lows seen in Q1-20.


Germany: PPI (Apr.): 2.8% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 4.9%)

  • Prices have re-accelerated over the month for basic goods and non-durable consumer goods.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 30.9% y/y the prior month to 33.5% y/y.


Poland: Industrial production (Apr.): -11.3% m/m vs -10.9% expected (prior: 18.2%)

  • Strong reversal in industrial activity after the rebound seen the prior month; the fall was broad-based across sectors over the month.


Poland: PPI (Apr.): 1.9%m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 6.6% revised from 4.9%)

  • Monthly rise has slowed down but remained sustained in absolute; energy and electricity costs were still on sustained trend.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further, from 21.9% y/y prior month to 23.3% y/y.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (May): 67.6 (prior: 67.3)

  • Consumer confidence has stabilized at depressed level over the month; opinions have improved on future personal financial situation.
Thursday 19 May
US Philly Fed lower than expected

US: Initial jobless claims (May 14): 218k vs 200k expected (prior: 197k revised from 203k)

  • Continuing claims: 1317 k after 1342 k the prior week.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): 2.6 vs 15 expected (prior: 17.6)

  • Declining sentiment on both current situation and on the 6-month view, the index was back to the moderate levels seen in the 2018-19 period.
  • Both current and future situation have revealed decreasing views on prices, employment and capex, while new orders and shipments have slightly increased.
  • Slower and volatile activity, with rising uncertainties, should follow the fall seen in the Philly Fed and New York Empire indices.
Wednesday 18 May
Declining US housing starts, surging UK inflation

US: Housing starts (Apr.): 1724k vs 1756k expected (prior: 1728k revised from 1793k)

  • Building permits have also declined from 1870 k the prior month to 1819 k.
  • Single family houses have declined the most over the month (-7.3% m/m); both sectors have declined in building permits.
  • Rising prices and mortgage rates have put a cap on demand for housing.


UK: CPI (Apr.): 2.5% m/m vs 2.6% expected (prior: 1.1%)

  • Inflation has accelerated on rising electricity cost (49.9% m/m; 32.5% share of total CPI).
  • Besides electricity, energy, water supply, and also food, communication and restaurant prices were on a strong monthly rise.
  • Inflation has reached 9% y/y after 7% y/y prior month; it could remain at high level next months as food and service prices may probably fuel upside pressures on monthly data. The BoE expects a peak at 10% y/y.
  • Strong labor and record inflation high all offer no other choice than hiking further for the BoE.


UK: PPI Input prices (Apr.): 1.1% m/m as expected (prior: 4.6% revised from 5.2%)

  • Pace of increase has moderated, but pressures remain in place; fuel prices were up by 5.6% m/m and manufacturing prices up by 1.7% m/m.
  • Yearly trend has stabilized at 18.6% y/y.


UK: PPI Output prices (Apr.): 2.3% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.9% revised from 2%)

  • Besides energy, prices of food and manufactured goods were on the rise.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 11.9% y/y prior month to 14% y/y.
  • Underlying pressures from costs remain in place and could maintain CPI inflation at high level next months.


Eurozone: CPI (Apr.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 2.5%)

  • Inflation was confirmed up in line with first estimates; monthly rise was driven by energy, food and services prices.
  • Yearly trend was stable at 7.4% y/y. besides volatile oil prices, food and services prices could fuel upside pressures on monthly figures.
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Insight 16.05.2022

UBP Investment Insight Summit 2022

On 11 & 12 May, our Asset Management division held its third Investment Insight Summit in Zurich.