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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
Monday 15 July
Weakening US New York Empire business confidence

US: NY Empire manufacturing (July): -6.6 vs -7.6 expected (prior: -6.0)

  • Business confidence has decreased but less than expected from the prior month.
  • Opinions were less negative on orders and employment and improved for shipments; the 6-month index has decreased on lower new orders and shipments.
  • Prices paid have reaccelerated, but prices received have moderated.
  • Business sentiment in this region was highly volatile in 2024 and stopped improving this month after a rebound since March.

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (May): -0.6% m/m vs -0.7% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.1%)

  • Except the energy sector which has rebounded over the month, all sectors have contracted; they showed a reversal after a rebound prior month or ongoing negative trend as seen for intermediate goods.

 

Poland: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Final data confirmed moderate rise in monthly prices.
  • Monthly rises were seen for food, health, recreation, and restaurants, while prices declined for clothes and energy-transport.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 2.5% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y.

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (June): 0% m/m (prior: -0.3%)

  • Import prices were down by 0.2% m/m (flat the prior month) and were down by 3.2% y/y (-2.9% y/y the prior month).
  • Producer prices were up by 0.1% m/m (-0.5% m/m prior month) and yearly trend was down by 1.2% y/y (-1.3% y/y the prior month).
Friday 12 July
US PPI better than it looks

US: PPI (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.2%)

  • PPI y/y: 2.6% vs 2.3% expected (prior: 2.4%, revised from 2.2%)
  • PPI ex food & energy & trade: 0.0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.0%); 3.1% y/y after 3.3% in May
  • The headline index came in above expectations, but the report contains some positives.
  • Services costs rose by 0.6% m/m, mainly because of a 1.9% increase in margins at wholesalers and retailers while goods prices fell 0.5%.
  • More importantly, some categories in the PPI report that are used to calculate the Fed's preferred inflation measure were slightly lower than expected (with prior's month data revised down), which bodes well for the next core PCE release on July 25th.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (July Prel.): 66.0 vs 68.5 expected (prior: 68.2)

  • Current conditions: 64.1 vs 66.0 expected (prior: 65.9)
  • Expectations: 67.2 vs 69.3 expected (prior: 69.6)
  • According to this metric, consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell to the lowest level in 8 months, not helped by the upcoming elections which make consumers more uncertain about the economic outlook.
  • On the positive side, consumers' expectations for inflation over the next year, and over the next 5-10 years, declined for a second consecutive month to 2.9% (from 3%).

 

Sweden: CPI (June): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • CPI y/y: 2.6% vs 2.8% expected (prior: 3.7%)
  • Core inflation dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since December 2021 and below all estimates in the Bloomberg survey.
  • This increases odds that the central bank will reduce borrowing costs already in August.

 

 

 

 

Thursday 11 July
Declining US inflation; firmer UK activity

US: Initial jobless claims (July 6): 222k vs 235k expected (prior: 239k revised from 238k)

  • Continuing claims: 1852 k after 1856 k the prior week.

 

US: CPI (June): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • Energy prices were down by 2% m/m; prices of services have eased from 0.2% m/m to 0.1% m/m: shelter have moderated from 0.3% m/m the prior month to 0.2% m/m. Several prices of goods have contracted during the month.
  • Within services, prices of airfares have decreased and prices for medical and education have moderated; only vehicle insurance remained volatile and on a monthly rise.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 3.3% y/y the prior month to 3% y/y and, on core inflation from 3.4% y/y to 3.3% y/y.
  • These data, with large easing of prices across sectors, were a positive surprise that should help to rebuild some FOMC comfort on inflation, and to increase probability of Fed rate cut in Sept.

 

Germany: CPI (June): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Over the month, prices have fallen for energy, transport, communication, and clothes; on the opposite, prices were firmer for food and leisure sectors.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 2.8% y/y the prior month to 2.5% y/y.

 

UK: RICS house price balance (June): -17% vs -15% expected (prior: -17%)

  • Sentiment on housing remained stable over the month and the index has already strongly recovered in Q1-24.
  • Opinions have improved on future prices, and new demand was less negative than the prior month.

 

UK: Industrial production (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.9%)

  • Activity has rebounded over the month; manufacturing production was up by 0.4% m/m after -1.6% m/m the prior month and construction from -1.1% m/m prior month to 1.9% m/m.
  • Production has rebounded for non-durable consumer goods and returned positive for intermediate sector (thanks to chemicals), while energy was down by 1.2% m/m.
  • Monthly proxy for GDP was up by 0.4% m/m (0% the prior month), thanks to services (mainly retail and leisure sectors), construction and manufacturing activity over the month.
  • Momentum remains positive and activity gains further.
Wednesday 10 July
Rising US wholesale inventories; firmer industrial production in Italy

US: Wholesale inventories (May): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inventories have increased further, notably in the auto and machinery sectors.
  • Sales were up by 0.4% m/m (0.2% m/m the prior month); they remained weak for the auto sector.
  • The inventory-to-sales ratio remained globally stable, but it has increased further for autos and machinery sectors.

 

Italy: Industrial production (May): 0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -1%)

  • Activity has regained over the month for energy and durable consumer goods; trend in capital goods remained negative.

 

Norway: CPI (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • Prices have declined over the month on leisure and household goods and clothes; they remained sustained for food and hotels sectors.
  • The yearly trend has declined from 3% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y; core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m (0.5% m/m the prior month) and has declined from 4.1% to 3.4% y/y.

 

Brazil: CPI (June): 0.21% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.46%)

  • Prices have declined more than expected for transport and communication over the month and have moderated for clothes; they remained sustained for health, personal goods, and food.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated from 3.93% y/y the prior month to 4.23% y/y.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (May): 8.4% (prior: 8.5%)

  • Unemployed has reduced further. Trend remained positive for employment.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (May): 1.7% m/m vs 3.8% expected (prior: -5% revised from -4.9%)

  • The rebound was fuelled by firmer activity in manufacturing and energy sectors over the month.
  • The yearly trend remained negative, down by 0.1% y/y after -0.7% y/y the prior month.
Tuesday 09 July
US: small firms slightly more optimistic

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (June): 91.5 vs 90.2 expected (prior: 90.5)

  • Sentiment amongst small firms has regained over the past month and after weak numbers in Q1-24.
  • Views were less negative about future economy, rebuilding of inventories and selling prices. They also remained positive on employment and wages.

 

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Insight 11.07.2024

UBP House View - July 2024

Equity markets rallied during the first half of the year, driven by earnings growth, a macro backdrop that was more resilient than expected, and continued appetite for AI winners (the “Magnificent 7”). Looking ahead, we anticipate a broadening of equity markets’ leadership. Read more about our insights in the July edition of UBP’s House View.