US: Initial jobless claims (June 18): 229k vs 226k expected (prior: 231k revised from 229k)
- Continuing claims have increased from 1310 k the prior week to 1315 k.
- Jobless claims have bottomed in March (166 k) and increased regularly thereafter; they are now above the levels seen in Jan 2022 (224 k at early Jan.).
US: Manufacturing PMI (June): 52.4 vs 56 expected (prior: 57)
- Momentum has deteriorated in services after the rebound post lockdown; new orders have deteriorated on falling new demand and export orders.
- Costs remained on the rise, but pace of rising input costs and final selling prices has slowed down compared to prior months.
- Employment has eased after positive momentum the prior months.
US: Services PMI (June): 51.6 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 53.4)
- The fall in sentiment was larger than expected from the prior month; production and new orders have contracted for the first time since past crisis and export orders have also contracted.
- Costs remained on the rise but selling prices have made limited passthrough to clients. Employment remained positive but some firms have not replaced leavers.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (June): 52 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 54.6)
- Business confidence has declined more than expected from the prior month. The index fell from 54.6 to 51 in France and from 54.8 to 52 in Germany according to preliminary data.
- News orders turned flat over the month and production has declined; shortages in supply still exist even delays have improved somewhat from China; business expectations have fallen and pressures from costs remained in place; selling prices have increased at a slower pace from the prior months.
- Job creations have slowed down.
Eurozone: PMI Services (June): 52.8 vs 55.5 expected (prior: 56.1)
- A huge slowdown from the prior month, after a rebound in demand post lockdown.
- Demand has declined and lost momentum after positive effects with the end of lockdown. Demand from consumers has peaked while demand from firms to services has declined in parallel with lower trend in manufacturing.
- Costs and prices remained on a strong rise.
France: Business confidence (June): 104 vs 105 expected (prior: 106)
- Business confidence has marginally declined over the month; within the manufacturing sector, confidence has marginally increased over the month.
- Production was still strong but orders, both domestic and foreign, stayed depressed.
- The decline in this index looks more moderated than in the preliminary PMI.
UK: PMI Manufacturing (June): 53.4 vs 53.6 expected (prior: 54.6)
- Business confidence has declined but was close to expectations; opinions on production have decreased and new orders index passed below 50; demand has decreased in relation with higher inflation.
- Costs remained on the rise, due to energy and shortages, and selling prices have increased further.
UK: PMI Services (June): 53.4 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 53.4)
- Opinions on services remained surprisingly stable; this was due to past events and still sustained demand from consumers.
- Employment remained positive and shortages still active; rising wages and shortages have driven costs higher and prices to final clients have increased further.
Norway: Unemployment rate (Apr.): 3.2% (prior: 3.1% revised from 2.9%)
Norway: The Norges bank has increased key rates from 0.75% to 1.25%.
- With rising concerns on inflation, the bank has increased more than expected its key rates and has pre-committed of another rise in Aug.