1. Investment expertise
  2. Market insight

Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Monday 03 October
Falling US ISM index and eurozone PMI manufacturing

US: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 52 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.5)

  • Final data were slightly better than initially estimated pointing to modest improvement in business conditions.
  • Opinions have increased on both production and orders but at a slow pace; views on exports have deteriorated. Employment remained positive while prices remained on the rise.


US: ISM Manufacturing (Sept.): 50.9 vs 52 expected (prior: 52.8)

  • Business sentiment has significantly decreased for the prior month, after being more resilient than the PMI index in past months.
  • A large fall in opinions on new orders (index has fallen from 51.3 to 47), backlog of orders, employment and new export orders; views on production was quite stable or slightly on the rise, as well as inventories. Prices paid have declined from the prior month.


US: Construction spending (Aug.): -0.7% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.4%)

  • Residential construction was down by 1% m/m after -1.7% m/m the prior month; non-residential construction was also down by 0.4% m/m after 0.7% m/m.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 48.4 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 47.3)

  • The final index was slightly better than the prior month level.
  • Nevertheless, details were not positive as the fall in sentiment has continued but only at a slower pace: falling production, orders and a related rise in inventories.
  • Exports have fallen on lower demand from US, EU and China.
  • Employment has increased but prices and costs remained on a rising trend.


Switzerland: CPI (Sept,.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Inflation has declined thanks to falling prices of oil, food, transport and hotels prices.
  • Core inflation was flat after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 3.5% y/y prior month to 3.3% y/y, and core inflation from 2.8% to 2.7% y/y.
  • This should give more comfort to the central bank, but nevertheless it should continue to hike in parallel with the ECB.


Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 57.1 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 56.4)

  • Contrary to expectations, business sentiment has rebounded over the month.
  • Opinions were more positive on production, orders and also on rising prices and inventories. Views on employment were marginally on the rise from the prior month; on the negative side, imports were down.
  • Business sentiment has not yet reflected the slowdown in final export demand, but this should be seen after some delay.
  • In parallel, PMI services were down from 56.9 the prior month to 52.3; views have decreased on activity, orders and prices while employment remained on positive trend.


Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 49.2 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 50.2)

  • Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month on sharp fall in orders and exports, and slower production.
  • Prices and employment remained on rising trend.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 48.4 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 49.6)

  • Business sentiment has declined further over the month, even slightly more than initially estimated.
  • The final index has declined more in Germany and Spain from the prior month.
  • The fall was driven by lower production and orders; demand has decreased on rising uncertainty, rising inflation and energy costs.
  • Employment has marginally increased from the prior month.


Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 43 vs 40.2 expected (prior: 40.9)

  • The index has regained from depressed levels; confidence remained at very low level.


Turkey: PPI (Sept.): 4.78% m/m (prior: 2.14%$)

  • Renewed strong rises in prices due to food and electricity and water costs.
  • Yearly trend has surged to 151.5% y/y after 143.7% y/y he prior month.


Turkey: CPI (Sept.): 3.08% m/m vs 3.15% expected (prior: 1.46%)

  • A strong monthly surge due to rising food, education, communication and mainly electricity and water prices.
  • Yearly trend has surged from 80.2% y/y the prior month to 83.45% y/y.
Friday 30 September
US core inflation again above expectations

US: Personal income (Aug.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Revised data shows a weaker pace of wage growth and a lower savings rate this year (3.5% in August, unchanged from July) – not positive for the consumption outlook.

US: Personal spending (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Personal spending increased more than expected in August. Real spending gains were mostly seen in services, while spending on goods fell.

US: Core PCE (Aug.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Core PCE y/y: 4.9% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.7% revised from 4.6%)
  • PCE deflator (headline inflation): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1%); 6.2% y/y vs 6.0% expected (prior: 6.4% revised from 6.3%)
  • The higher-than-expected core PCE continues to argue for an aggressive tightening from the Fed.
  • Inflation should slow in September, but only modestly.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sept. F): 58.6 vs 59.5 expected (prior: 58.2)

  • Current conditions: 59.7 vs 58.9 expected (prior: 58.6)
  • Expectations: 58.0 vs 59.9 expected (prior: 58.0)
  • Consumer confidence was finally nearly unchanged from the previous month.
  • On the positive side, consumer expected prices will climb at an annual rate of 2.7% over the next 5-10 years, the lowest since April 2021.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Sept.): 10.0% y/y vs 9.7% expected (prior: 9.1%)

  • CPI m/m: 1.2% vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.6%)
  • Core CPI: 4.8% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.3%)
  • Inflation was above expectations for the fifth straight month, resulting in the first ever reading of double-digit inflation and adding pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates aggressively.
  • Energy and food were again the main drivers of inflation, but core inflation also reached an all-time high.

France: CPI (Sept Prel.): -0.5% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • CPI y/y: 6.2% vs 6.6% expected (prior: 6.6%)
  • Inflation slowed more than expected in France (as in Spain).

France: Consumer spending (Aug.): 0.0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.8%)

  • Y/y: -3.8% vs -2.7% expected (prior: -4.6% revised from -4.3%)
  • Consumer spending was unchanged in August, but is still down quite meaningfully y/y.

Germany: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 5.5% as expected (prior: 5.5%)

  • Unemployment change: +14k vs +20k expected (prior: +26k)
  • The labour market slightly softened in August and September, but this is far from dramatic at this stage.
  • Vacancies fell by another 11k, which is the fourth decline in a row, but this leaves the level of vacancies at very high levels.

Italy: CPI (Aug.): 1.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

  • CPI y/y: 9.5% as expected (prior: 9.1%)
  • Inflation continued to rise, but in line with expectations.

UK: GDP (Q2 F.): 0.2% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • GDP y/y: 4.4% vs 2.9% expected (prior: 8.7%)
  • The UK economy did not contract in Q2 according to the new estimates.
  • Private consumption also grew slightly (+0.1 q/q vs -0.2% in the previous estimate).

Switzerland: KOF (Sept): 93.8 vs 85.0 expected (prior: 93.5 revised from 86.5)

  • The revised data shows that this leading indicator actually increased in August (instead of a significant decline), which means that it edged marginally higher in September.
Thursday 29 September
Weakening confidence in Eurozone; German inflation estimates above 10% y/y

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept. 24): 193k vs 215k expected (prior: 209k revised from 213k)

  • Continuing claims: 1347 k after 1376 k the prior week.

US: GDP (Q2-22): -0.6% q/q as expected (prior: -1.6%)

  • Global estimates have not changed at GDP level, but a few changes at the sector level in this third and last estimate.
  • Consumption was firmer (2% q/q after 1.5% in previous estimates; 1.3% in Q1) thanks to stronger services (4.6% after 2.1% in Q1).
  • Final estimates were less negative on equipment (-2% vs -2.7% q/q in 2nd estimate, but more negative for residential (-17.8% vs -16.2% q/q).
  • Inventories contribution in Q2 was less negative than initially estimated (-1.9 pp drag in final Q2 data); net exports contribution was revised down but still positive (1.16 pp in Q2 after -0.26 pp in Q1).
  • No major change except a more positive view on Q2 consumption.

Eurozone: Business climate (Sept.): -0.4 vs -0.7 expected (prior: 1 revised from 1.1)

  • Business confidence has decreased less than feared from the prior month.
  • The detailed picture was mixed from the prior month: falling exports, rising prices versus only a modest decrease in sentiment on production and stable views on orders.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Sept.): -28.8 as expected (prior: -25)

  • Confidence has deteriorated further from the prior month.
  • A sharp decline in financial situation, economic outlook and rising concerns on inflation and unemployment.

Eurozone: Service confidence (Sept.): 4.9 vs 7 expected (prior: 8.1 revised from 8.7)

  • A sharp fall of confidence in services due to decreasing current and future demand.

Italy: PPI (Aug.): 3.5% m/m (prior: 6.5%)

  • Nondomestic prices were up by 2.8% m/m after 5% m/m the prior month; yearly trend has accelerated further from 45.9% the prior month to 50.5% y/y.

Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Preliminary data have pointed towards no change in prices over the month.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 10.5% y/y the prior month to 9.3% y/y.

Germany: CPI (Sept.): 2.2% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Inflation has continued to accelerate according to preliminary data; food, energy and clothes prices have shown a large monthly rebound.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further, from 8.8% y/y the prior month to 10.9% y/y.
Wednesday 28 September
Further decline in Eurozone consumer confidence

US: Wholesale inventories (Aug.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inventories remained on sustained rise in all major sectors over the month, from wholesale to retail sectors.

US: Pending home sales (Aug.): -2% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -1%)

  • Sales have declined further in all districts, except one (West) over 4.
  • Rising mortgage rates have weighed down on activity.

France: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 79 vs 80 expected (prior: 82)

  • Confidence has declined further on deteriorating financial situation, employment and rising preference for saving.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -42.5 vs -39 expected (prior: -36.8 revised from -36.5)

  • Preliminary confidence index has sharply deteriorated from the prior month.
  • Views on financial situation and future incomes have strongly declined from the prior month and willingness to buy has decreased.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 94.8 vs 95.1 expected (prior: 98.3)

  • A sharp fall in confidence on deteriorating global and personal situation.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 101.3 vs 102.2 expected (prior: 104 revised from 104.3)

  • A sharp fall in domestic and foreign orders; falling sentiment on current production.

Sweden: Retail sales (Aug.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Sales have contracted, but less than expected; sales of durables goods were negatively impacted by rising rates and high inflation.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 49.7 vs 53 expected (prior: 57.8 revised from 56.3)

  • Confidence has sharply declined over the month; views on personal financial situation, the economic outlook and unemployment have deteriorated from the prior month.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 110 (prior: 115.7 revised from 116.4)

  • Business sentiment has sharply declined over the month. Nevertheless, the index stayed high, and in the range seen in 2018-19.

Norway: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -2% revised from -2.1%).

Tuesday 27 September
US: better than expected consumer confidence (Conf. Board), Richmond Fed index and new home sales

US: Durable goods orders (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • A large fall in orders of civil aircrafts, but a rebound in core capital goods orders (non-defense and ex aircraft), up by 1.3% m/m after -0.6% m/m the prior month, due to a rebound in electrical equipment orders (1% m/m after -0.6% m/m).
  • Shipments were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.2% m/m (core capital goods: 0.3% m/m after 0.6% m/m); inventories stayed on a 0.2% m/m trend (core capital goods: 0.3% m/m after 0.4% m/m).

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (July): 16.06% y/y vs 17.05% expected (prior: 18.66% revised from 18.65%)

  • Prices of houses have declined from the prior month; monthly, prices have contracted for the first time since many months (-0.44% m/m after 0.20% m/m the prior month).
  • All districts, except 2 over 20 districts, have still shown double-digit figures for yearly trend; just have just passed below 10% y/y.
  • Further decline in prices should result from the Fed's strategy.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Sept.): 108 vs 104.6 expected (prior: 103.6 revised from 103.2)

  • Surprisingly, consumer confidence has rebounded after lows seen in June-July.
  • Sentiment on current conditions has increased from 145.3 the prior month to 149.6, and expectations from 75.8 to 80.3. This index was back to its Feb. level.
  • Views have turned more positive on labor (jobs easy to get) after a fall in June-July. Business conditions and employment were seen as being more positive after a period of weakness.
  • Willingness to buy has increased on autos and major items, while the index remained cautious on houses.
  • Inflation expectations (separate question non included in the index) has declined from 7% to 6.8% y/y.
  • The easing in energy prices and a still sustained trend in job creations and wages have fueled this monthly rebound in confidence; this is not what M. Powell has mentioned regarding the trend expected on the future economy, i.e. pointing towards more pain in the real economy and a rebalancing (slower job creations) labor.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Sept.): 0 vs -10 expected (prior: -8)

  • Business sentiment has improved from the prior month and the index was back to its July level.
  • On both current situation and 6-months views, improving sentiment was seen for shipments, orders, business conditions and capex. Some decline is seen and expected on inflation (both prices paid and received).
  • Views on employment has moderated from the prior month.

US: New home sales (Aug.): 685k vs 600k expected (prior: 532k revised from 511k)

  • Sales were stronger than expected over the month; sales have increased in all 4 districts but driven by strong sales in South district (467 k).
  • Inventories have declined and some correction in prices were seen, up by 8% y/y after 14.9% y/y the prior month (median data) and monthly change was negative (-6.3% m/m).

Eurozone: M3 (Aug.): 6.1% y/y vs 5.4% expected (prior: 5.7% revised from 5.5%)

  • Growth of monetary aggregates has accelerated over the prior month after period of slowdown.
  • M1 growth was up by 6.8% y/y and M2 up by 6.3% y/y after 5.9% y/y prior month.
  • Credit to private sector was up by 5.5% y/y after 5.2% y/y. Withing credit, consumer credit growth (card and housing loans) has shown some slowdown, while credit to non-financial corporates has accelerated regularly since June (up by 7.8% y/y after 6.6% y/y).
  • Most dynamic part of credit to corporate was below 1-year category and up by 18% y/y.

Brazil: CPI (Sept.): -0.37% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.73%)

  • Prices of food, energy-transport and communication have sharply declined over the month; on the opposite, prices of housing, health care and personal expenses remained on sustained monthly change.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 9.6% y/y the prior month to 7.96% y/y.
Read more

Institutional clients

With a team of more than 200 people, UBP Asset Management has built an on-the-ground presence in the world’s major markets through organic growth and selected partnerships.

Our fund range


View all our funds.

Insight 27.09.2022

New market regime favours alternatives

In this white paper, we explore why alternatives can provide opportunities for investors in today’s market environment.