Analisi macro giornaliere

Eurozone: Retail sales (March): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)

• Retail sales y/y 1.5% vs 1.6% expected (prior: 1.9% revised from 2.3%)
• Retail sales in volume terms have been roughly flat since last September and the weakening consumer confidence does not bode well for the coming months.
• Still, positive real wage growth, thanks to lower inflation, could support modest growth in spending.

Germany: Factory orders (March): 3.6% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• Y/y: 3.8% vs 1.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)
• This solid data could reflect some front-loading ahead of US tariffs, but this should support the economy in the near term.

US: Trade balance (March): -140.5 bn USD vs -137.2 bn expected (prior: -123.2 bn revised from -122.7 bn)

• The US trade deficit widened to a new record as companies and consumers rushed to import products before tariffs.
• In particular, US imports of pharmaceutical preparations surged 71% in March.

Eurozone: PMI Services (April F.): 50.1 vs 49.7 expected (prior: 51.0)

• The index was revised slightly upwards from the preliminary reading of 49.7, but it remains the lowest level since November 2024.
• Incoming new business edged lower in April to 48.9 from 49.6 in March.
• Disparities between countries remains significant with, for instance, the PMI at 53.4 in Spain, 49.0 in Germany and 47.3 in France.

Eurozone: PPI (March): -1.6% m/m vs -1.4% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• PPI y/y: 1.9% vs 2.5% expected (prior: 3.0%)
• Producer prices fell more than expected in March - another green light for additional ECB easing.

France: Industrial production (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.7%)

• IP y/y: 0.2% vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% vs -0.4% expected)
• Industrial production was held back by mining (-4.0% m/m) and electricity & gas (-2.0%), but manufacturing production rose 0.6% (vs +0.5% expected) after a 1.3% jump in February.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (April): 2.8% as expected (prior: 2.8%)

• The unadjusted rate unexpectedly fell to 2.8% from 2.9% in March.

US: Services PMI (Apr F): 50.8 vs 51.2 expected (prior: 54.4)

• US Services PMI was revised lower to 50.8 from a preliminary of 51.4, marking the slowest expansion in 17 months.

US: ISM Services (Apr): 51.6 vs 50.2 expected (prior: 50.8)

• The ISM services index unexpectedly rose to 51.6, rebounding from a nine-month low of 50.8. New orders increased to 52.3 from 50.4, while inventories grew to 53.4 from 50.3. Business activity remained strong at 53.7, though slightly down from 55.9. Employment continued to contract, but at a slower rate, improving to 49 from 46.2.
• Prices paid rose sharply from 60.9 to 65.1, highlighting concerns about tariffs induced inflation.
• The overall index indicates that the services sector remains resilient despite the contraction in manufacturing caused by rising trade tariffs.

Switzerland: CPI (Apr): 0.0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• Swiss headline inflation stayed at zero in April, falling below the SNB's second-quarter forecast of 0.3%.
• This decline is influenced by both domestic and imported inflation factors. Although the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc may have partially impacted April's energy prices, it will likely take a few more months to fully affect overall goods inflation.
• As the Swiss franc strengthened, the risks are increasingly skewed to the downside. This may lead the SNB to reduce its policy rate to 0%. Although the chance of negative interest rates is rising, it remains minimal.

US: Non-farm payrolls (April): 177k vs 138k expected (prior: 185k revised from 228k)

• Payrolls were stronger than expected but prior month data were revised lower.
• Payrolls were firmer in construction but decreased in manufacturing.
• Payrolls in services were down from 161 k prior month to 156 k; creations have increased for trade-transport and business services, while they decreased for education-health, leisure and at Federal government.
• Participation rate has slightly increased over the month; unemployment ratio remained quite stable at 4.2% (from 4.152% to 4.187%) but the average duration to unemployment has slightly increased (from 22.8 to 23.2 weeks).
• Wage growth remained limited up by 0.2% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month) and up by 3.8% y/y (unchanged from the prior month).
• Labor remained globally positive, but more volatility is seen at sector level and unemployment has slightly increased over the month.

US: Factory orders (March): 4.3% m/m vs 4.5% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Final data came slightly lower than the estimate, but the rebound remained in place from the prior month.
• Data were boosted over the month by a large rebound in aircraft orders.
• Orders for capital goods nondefense ex aircraft were up by 0.1% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.
• After the large surge in equipment spending seen in Q1 related to fears of tariffs and trade disruption the risk points to lower trend in orders and capex in Q2-25.

• Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (April): 49 vs 48.7 expected (prior: 48.6)
• Final data were higher than prior month and first estimate.
• Sentiment has improved on new orders and production was boosted during the month; exports remained weak.
• While prices paid have decreased on lower energy prices, selling prices remained on the rise.
• Business sentiment has regained from prior month in Italy (49.3 after 46.6), France (48.7 after 48.5) and in Germany (48.4 after 48.3) but decreased in Spain (from 49.5 to 48.1).

Italy: Unemployment rate (March): 6% as expected (prior: 5.9%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (April): 50.2 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 50.7)

• Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month, but the index remained just above the 50 level; sentiment on new orders has decreased over the month (from 51.6 to 49.7).

Norway: PMI Manufacturing (April): 46.1 (prior: 50.1 revised from 50.6)

• Business sentiment has decreased driven lower by falling new orders.

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (April): 54.2 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.8 revised from 53.6)

• Business sentiment has increased from the prior month; opinions have increased on orders, but declined on production, employment, and exports.

Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (April): 45.8 vs 48.6 expected (prior: 48.9)

• Business sentiment has sharply declined over the month driven lower by falling orders and employment.
• Separately, PMI services has rebounded from 50.6 prior month to 52.4: opinions have increased on new orders, activity, and employment.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (April): 2.2% y/y vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.2%)

• Prices were up by 0.6% m/m in preliminary data vs 0.5% expected (0.6% m/m prior month).
• Energy prices have declined further (-2.3% m/m after -1.4% m/m prior month), but services have rebounded (Easter effect), up by 1.3% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month (3.9% y/y).
• Prices of goods were up only by 0.4% m/m after 1.9% m/m prior month (0.6% y/y).
• Estimate for core inflation was up by 1% m/m (1% m/m prior month) and up by 2.7% y/y after 2.4% y/y the prior month.

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (April): 50.3 (prior: 51.8)

• Business sentiment has decreased on new orders and related index passed below the 50 level.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (April): 47.3 (prior: 47.3)

• Business confidence was stable but remained below the 50 level; sentiment has rebuilt on new orders.