Analisi macro giornaliere

US: Pending home sales (Sept.): 0% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 4.2% revised from 4%)

• Sales have diverged across the 4 main districts over the month: falling in Midwest, rising in North and South districts and flat in West district.
• Despite lower interest rates, demand was globally low due to concerns about labour and the US government shutdown.

Spain: GDP (Q3-25): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Domestic demand was sustained while exports have contracted over the quarter.
• Consumption was up by 1.1% and investment was sustained on all major components: construction (up by 1.4%), equipment (1.7%), and R&D (2.4%).
• Exports have contracted by 0.6% (+1.3% in Q2), while imports were sustained (1.1% after 1.6% in Q2).
• Yearly trend has moderated from 3% in Q2 to 2.8% y/y in Q3; Spanish growth continued to over-perform other euro members and it should come close to 2.9% on average in 2025.

Spain: Retail sales (real) (Sept.): 4.2% y/y (prior: 4.7% revised from 4.5%)

• Sales were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month; some sector rotation was seen as food and health care have driven up the monthly change while household goods and internet sales were down over the month after prior month rebound.
• The yearly trend remained supported by strong purchases of household’s goods, up by 6.1% y/y.

Norway: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

Sweden: GDP (Q3-25): 1.1% q/q vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Flash estimates pointed to an acceleration in activity in Q3; monthly indicators were more moderate but revealed a rebound in consumption in Aug., while exports were a drag.

UK: M4 (Sept.): 3.6% y/y (prior: 3.4%)

• M4 lending remained stable at 3.6% y/y.
• Total flows of credit to consumers have slightly decreased from the prior month on credit cards. Separately, loans to firms have slightly increased for both large and small firms.
• Total mortgages approved have increased from GBP 65 bn prior month to GBP 65.9 bn.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Oct.): 94.6 vs 93.4 expected (prior: 95.6 revised from 94.2)

• Consumer confidence fell for a third consecutive month in October to the lowest level since April.
• The decline is largely driven by a modest rise in concerns over the labour market. Respondents also frequently cited concerns over the government shutdown.
• The press release also noted that "consumers’ write-in responses were led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy".
• However, most recent data have indicated that consumption has remained resilient so far.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Oct.): -4 vs -12 expected (prior: -17)

• Significant improvement to the highest level since last February, but it still indicates a modest contraction.

US: House price Index MoM (FHFA) (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.1%)

• By this measure, house prices in August recorded the sharpest monthy rise of the year, and are up 2.3% y/y.

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Aug.): 1.6% y/y vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.8%)

• The value of single-family housing in 20 US cities rose by only 1.6% y/y, the weakest gain in two years.
• This is good news for buyers following a prolonged squeeze on affordability due to soaring prices and high mortgage rates.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Nov.): -24.1 vs -22.0 expected (prior: -22.5 revised from -22.3)

• Consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level since April.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Oct.): 88.3 vs 87.0 expected (prior: 87.4 revised from 87.3)

• Sentiment in the manufacturing sector ticked up in October to the highest level since August 2023.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 97.6 vs 97.0 expected (prior: 96.8)

• Consumer sentiment slightly improved in October, but remains roughly at the same level as at the start of the year.

US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Oct.): -5 vs -6.2 expected (prior: -8.7)

• Business sentiment has improved about the current situation.
• Sentiment remained positive on current production and turned less negative on orders; there were also less pressures on prices.
• The 6-M index has eroded but remained positive.
• 6-M views were less strong on orders and production but turned more positive on employment; less pressures on prices were seen.
• The total index was volatile in recent months, but a positive trend has rebuilt, and the index is now back in its pre-covid range.

Eurozone: M3 (Sept.): 2.8% y/y vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.9%)

• M2 was up by 2.7% y/y after 3% y/y prior month; M1 up by 5.1% y/y after 5.0% y/y prior month.
• Credit to private sector remained on stable trend up by 2.7%y/y; loans to consumer remained sustained while those to non-financial corporates have eroded (up by 2.8% y/y after 3.0% y/y the prior month).
• Trend in private credit remained positive but it has not accelerated over the recent past months.

Germany: IFO (Oct.): 88.4 vs 88 expected (prior: 87.7)

• Business confidence has improved from the prior month.
• Sentiment on current situation has eroded further (index at 85.3 after 85.7) due to still uncertainties on production and trade.
• Expectations have strongly rebounded (index at 91.6 after 89.8 prior month); sentiment has improved due to stronger fiscal support next year with infrastructure and defense in the spotlight. A recovery is expected next year in German growth (1.3% expected), while it remained sluggish in H2-25 (0.2% expected on average in 2025).

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 8.6% (prior: 8.6% revised from 8.5%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month and in parallel labor force has decreased.

US: CPI (Sep): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• US consumer prices rose less than expected in September, as easing housing and food costs offset a sharp 4% monthly surge in gasoline prices.
• Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by just 0.2% month-on-month, below the anticipated 0.3%. On a yearly basis, CPI printed at 3.0% vs. 3.1% expected.
• Shelter costs, making up 35% of the headline index, slowed to 0.2% from 0.4% in August, while food prices also decelerated to 0.2% from 0.5%. Meanwhile, categories sensitive to tariffs, such as household furnishings and recreational goods, saw gains, and apparel prices posted their fastest rise in a year.
• This softer inflation print supports the Federal Reserve’s case for further rate cuts. We expect 25 bp reductions at both next week and December meetings.

US: Services PMI (Oct P): 55.2 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 54.2)

• October’s flash PMI data signal robust economic growth at the start of Q4, with business activity gaining momentum in both manufacturing (52.2) and services (55.2), despite some disruptions from the government shutdown.
• The composite PMI rose to 54.8 in October from 53.9 in September, marking the highest reading since July.
• Yet, business confidence has plunged to a three-year low, driven by concerns over tariffs, weak export demand, and rising unsold inventories. Manufacturers, having stockpiled inputs earlier to preempt tariffs, are now producing more but struggling to sell finished goods.
• While input costs surged again in October due to tariff pressures, firms have slashed price increases to their lowest level since April, competing aggressively to secure sales.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct F): 53.6 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 55.1)

• US consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, was revised down to 53.6 in October, a five-month low. Both current conditions (58.6 vs. 61) and expectations (50.3 vs. 51.3) saw downward adjustments
• Year-ahead inflation expectations eased slightly to 4.6%, matching initial estimates, while the 5-year outlook rose to 3.9%, up from 3.7% previously.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Oct P): 52.6 vs 51.2 expected (prior: 51.3)

• Eurozone business activity surged to its highest level since 2023, with the composite PMI rising to 52.2, surpassing the forecast of 51.1. The data underscores the region's economic resilience, bolstering the case for the ECB to hold interest rates steady.
• Domestic demand drove a sharp rise in new orders, offsetting a continued slump in exports. While input cost inflation eased for the second month, output prices climbed at their fastest pace in seven months. However, business confidence dipped to a five-month low.
• The services sector drove growth, hitting a one-year high of 52.6, while manufacturing narrowly avoided contraction (50 vs. 49.8 expected).
• A country-level breakdown shows that Germany’s services sector outperformed expectations (54.5 vs. 51.0), but France continued to lag (47.1 vs. 48.7), weighed down by political uncertainty. Manufacturing remains a weak spot across both economies.

UK: Retail sales (Oct): 0.5% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

• UK retail sales, including auto fuel, unexpectedly rose in September for the fourth consecutive month, offering a rare boost amid signs of a slowing economy and weakening job market.
• Growth was driven by non-food stores, particularly computer and telecom retailers, while online jewelers saw strong demand for gold, according to the ONS.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Oct): -17 vs -20 expected (prior: -19)

• UK household confidence has climbed to its highest level this year, though economic pessimism persists, with more people viewing now as a good time to save.
• Notably, the boost in confidence comes ahead of the November 26 budget, where Rachel Reeves is expected to unveil further tax hikes.
• The rise was largely driven by a greater willingness to purchase big-ticket items.

UK: Services PMI (Oct P): 51.1 vs 51.0 expected (prior: 50.8)

• The UK private sector picked up pace in October, with services growing modestly and manufacturing PMI beating expectations at 49.6, driven by the first output expansion in a year (index: 51.2).
• Input price pressures fell to their lowest since November 2024, easing output price inflation, especially in services.
• The composite PMI rose to 51.1 from 50.1 in September.