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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

martedì 31 gennaio
Weakening US consumer confidence (Conf. Board)

US: Employment cost index (Q4-22): 1% q/q vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Wages were up by 1% q/q after 1.3% q/q in Q3-22; benefits were up by 0.8% q after 1%q in Q3.
  • Labor cost has marginally eased in Q4, but the trend remained sustained, and probably too high on a Fed's point of view.


US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Nov.): 6.77% y/y vs 6.8% expected (prior: 8.64%)

  • Prices were down by 0.54% m/m over the month; prices were negative or flat across all the regions.


US: Chicago PMI (Jan.): 44.3 vs 45 expected (prior: 45.1 revised from 44.9)

  • Business confidence has decreased over the month, sentiment weakened on production, new orders and employment but on the opposite, it has increased for prices paid.


US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Jan.): 107.1 vs 109 expected (prior: 109 revised from 108.3)

  • Sentiment on current situation has increased from the prior month, but expectations have declined (index from 83.4 the prior month to 77.8).
  • On current situation, views have improved on labor and activity. Expectations have weakened as the balance of opinions turned less bullish on future activity and labor.
  • Plans to buy autos has increased from the prior month but decreased on houses and were stable about other items.
  • Inflation expectations (12 month) have increased from 6.6% y/y to 6.8% y/y (average index).


Eurozone: GDP (Q4-22): 0.1% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • First estimates have pointed to firmer growth than expected in Q4-22.
  • Q4 GDP data were sharply negative in Austria, moderately negative in Germany and Italy, slightly positive in France, and more positive in Spain.
  • Irish GDP has strongly rebounded in Q3 (2.3%q) and in Q4 (3.5%q), thanks to multinational industries based in the country, that have boosted investment and exports. Without Irish GDP data, eurozone GDP growth would have been closer to the consensus (-0.1%q) in Q4.


France: GDP (Q4-22): 0.1% q/q vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Growth was slightly better than expected but large divergence was seen across sectors.
  • Consumption was down by 0.9% q/q after 0.5% q/q the prior period, only purchases of services were positive (0.5% q/q).
  • Capex remained positive but it has slowed down from 3.8% in Q3 to 1.2% in Q4, with parallel slowdown in manufacturing and services sectors.
  • Imports have sharply declined (-1.9%), more than exports (-0.3% q/q), so that net trade contribution was positive to GDP (0.5 pp).
  • Net inventory contribution was negative by 0.2pp tp GDP growth in Q4-22.
  • GDP growth was up by 2.6% in 2022; 2023 outlook point to weak growth (-0.2%/0% in 2023) with negative trend in domestic demand in H1-23.


France: Consumer spending (Dec.): -1.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

  • All sectors have shown a sharp contraction except clothes and energy segments.
  • A sharp reversal was seen in purchases of autos and durable goods after a rebound in Nov.
  • Strikes and fears about pension reforms should fuel downside risks on consumption trend in Q1.


France: Producer Prices (Dec.): 1.4% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Prices of energy and transport remained sustained over the month, as the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has marginally declined from 20.9% y/y to 20.7% y/y.


France: CPI (Jan.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • Inflation was more sustained on a monthly basis, due to energy (changes in cap on energy prices from the government) and food prices. On a positive tone, prices for manufactured goods were down by 1% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 6.7% to 7% y/y.
  • A lot of volatility was expected in Jan. data after positive surprises the prior months; the rebound seen in Jan inflation in Europe was expected (volatile energy prices and changes in cap on energy prices from different governments) and should remain just one point; the downward trend in headline inflation should continue unless new shock on energy prices.


Germany: Retail sales (Dec.): -5.3% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 1.9% revised from 1.1%)

  • All sectors have sharply reversed from the prior month


Germany: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 5.5% as expected (prior: 5.5%)

  • Unemployed has decreased by 22 k over the month after -16 k the prior month.


Italy: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 7.8% as expected (prior: 7.8%)

  • Unemployed remained quite stable over the period.


Italy: GDP (Q4-22): -0.1% q/q vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • GDP has contracted slightly less than expected over the quarter. No details were available, but it seemed that domestic demand was negative while net exports have contributed positively to quarterly GDP.


UK: M4 (Dec.): 1.6% y/y (prior: 2.5%)

  • M4 lending growth has slowed down from2.2% y/y the prior month to 1.7% y/y. Credit to SMEs has slowed down and mortgage approvals have also slowed down over the month.


lunedì 30 gennaio
Eurozone economic confidence improved more than expected in January

Eurozone: Economic confidence (Jan.): 99.9 vs 97.0 expected (prior: 97.1 revised from 95.8)

  • Industrial confidence: 1.3 vs -0.9 expected (prior: -0.6 revised from -1.5)
  • Services confidence: 10.7 vs 8.5 (prior: 7.7 revised from 6.3)
  • Eurozone economic confidence rose for a third consecutive month to reach its highest level since June amid easing recession fears.
  • Business sentiment rose in all sectors except construction

Germany: GDP (Q4 Prel.): -0.2% q/q vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.4%)

  • GDP y/y: 1.1% vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.4%)
  • GDP unexpectedly contracted in Q4 (vs a prior guidance from the German statistics for a flat outcome).
  • No details were given except a comment that consumer spending declined.
  • In terms of level, GDP is now slightly above the pre-pandemic level in Q4 2019, but therefore still far below the pre-pandemic path.
  • Note that, despite the decline in real terms, the increase in nominal terms was still strong in Q4: up 8.8% q/q saar.

Spain: CPI (Jan. Prel.): -0.5% m/m vs -1.9% expected (prior: 0.0%)

  • CPI y/y: 5.8% vs 4.8% expected (prior: 5.5%)
  • Unexpected increase on a y/y basis, including for core CPI which rose to 7.5% y/y from 7% in December.
  • The reacceleration was driven by a rebound in fuel costs but the rise in core CPI shows that prices pressures are still broad-based.

Switzerland: KOF (Jan.): 97.2 vs 93.4 expected (prior: 91.5 revised from 92.2)

  • This barometer of the Swiss economy increased for the second consecutive month to reach its highest level since last June.
venerdì 27 gennaio
US: higher final consumer confidence (Michigan index)

US: Personal income (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

  • Wages and disposable income stayed on a stable trend, being up by 0.3% m/m.
  • Real disposable income was up by 0.2% m/m as in the prior month.


US: Personal spending (Dec.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

  • Purchases of goods were down by 1.5% m/m after -1.3% m/m the prior month (only purchases made past Oct. were positive for goods). Services were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
  • Saving ratio has increased from 2.9% the prior month to 3.4%.


US: Core PCE (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • While PCE was up by 0.1% (vs 0% expected) monthly change in core PCE was in line with expectations.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 4.7% y/y the prior month to 4.4% y/y.


US: Pending home sales (Dec.): 2.5% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: -2.6% revised from -4%)

  • Sales have rebounded, after several months of decline, but they have diverged across regions; on 4 main regions, 2 regions have shown large rebound in sales, 1 region sharply down and 1 region modestly down.


US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Jan.): 64.9 vs 64.6 expected (prior: 59.7)

  • Final consumer confidence has increased more than in the first estimates from the prior month.
  • Details offered constructive views and signs of some stabilization on the global situation.
  • Sentiment has increased on personal finances and on income views have improved from the prior month on current and future economic situation and a stable labor is expected.
  • Willingness to buy cars, houses and large items have regained from the prior month.
  • Inflation expectations have eased, even more than in first estimates, at 12 months from 4.4% to 3.9% y/y and they stayed stable at 5-10y at 2.9%.


France: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 80 vs 83 expected (prior: 81 revised from 82)

  • Confidence has weakened over the past two months.
  • Opinions have decreased over the past two months on past and future personal, economic conditions, prices and unemployment. Recent strikes and debate about pension reform have added uncertainties to current cycle.
  • The index was back toits low level after some improvement over the Sept.-Nov. period.


Spain: GDP (Q3-22): 0.2% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Growth was resilient in Q4 thanks to a strong positive contribution of net trade due to larger fall of imports than exports; domestic demand was deeply negative over the quarter, with large fall in private consumption and capex.
  • Contrary to Q3, domestic demand has sharply reversed while net trade contribution turned positive.


Eurozone: M3 (Dec.): 4.1% y/y vs 4.6% expected (prior: 4.8%)

  • Pace of monetary aggregates growth has slowed down further; M1 was up by 0.6% y/y after 2.4% y/y the prior month and M2, up by 3.7% after 4.6% y/y.
  • Credit to the private sector has also slowed down from 5.1% y/y the prior month to 4.2% y/y.


Sweden: Retail sales (Dec.): -1.8% m/m (prior: 1.5% revised from 2.2%)


Sweden: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 7.5% vs 7.3% expected (prior: 7.2%)

  • Unemployed has increased over the period.


Norway: Retail sales (Dec.): -3.6% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.9%)

giovedì 26 gennaio
US: strong Q4 GDP thanks to consumption and high contribution from rising inventories

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan.21): 186k vs 205k expected (prior: 192k revised from 190k)

  • Continuing claims: 1675 k after 1653 k the prior week.


US: GDP (Q4-22): 2.9% q/q vs 2.6% expected (prior: 3.2%)

  • GDP growth was stronger than expected thanks to resilient consumption and strong positive contribution from inventories and net trade.
  • Consumption was up by 2.1% q/q after 2.3% in Q3; purchases of goods remained positive (despite weak retail sales after a rebound in Oct.) up by 1.1%q/q, and services were strong (2.6% q/q after 3.7% q/q in Q3).
  • Investment was mixed with large divergence across sectors; capex was down by 3.7% q/q after 10.6% in Q3; structures were slightly positive (0.4% q/q after -3.6%) and R&D stayed firm (5.3% q/q after 6.8%).
  • Residential investment was sharply down: -26.7% q/q after -27.1% q/q.
  • Net trade contribution was positive (0.65 pp) to Q3 thanks to a larger fall in imports (4.6% q/q) than in exports (-1.3% q/q).
  • Inventories have strongly rebounded and have added 1.46 pp to Q3 GDP; public consumption was still solid, up by 3.7% q/q, adding 0.64 pp to GDP.
  • Strength in consumption could comfort the Fed in hiking rates further; but underlying final sales and private final sales have weakened further in Q3, showing total domestic demand has entered a slowdown despite large total GDP data.
  • A slowdown from Q4 is expected in Q1-23, and domestic demand should remain weak and even in a modest contraction.


US: Wholesale inventories (Dec.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)

  • Inventories of durable goods were up by 1.2% m/m.


US: Durable goods orders (Dec.): 5.6% m/m vs 2.5% expected (prior: -1.7% revised from -2.1%)

  • Orders have been boosted by orders for aircraft (Boeing).
  • Orders for capital good non-defense and ex aircraft were down by 0.2% m/m after 0% the prior month; for these orders, shipments were down by 0.4% (-0.2% m/m the prior month) and inventories were up by 0.8% m/m (0.4% m/m).


US: New home sales (Dec.): 616k vs 612k expected (prior: 602k revised from 640k)

  • Sales have increased but prior month data were revised lower.
  • Sales have increased in two districts but declined in two other sectors. Inventories remained stable over the month and median prices have declined from the prior month (-3.7% m/m) but were still up by 7.8% y/y.


Sweden: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 56.3 (prior: 55.4 revised from 54.1)

  • Consumer confidence has improved from the prior month.
  • Opinions on financial situation and economic outlook have improved after deterioration on recent/past situation.
  • Unemployment is seen as global worry.
  • Less depressed opinions on future purchases.


Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Jan.): 99.5 (prior: 103.7 revised from 104.1)

  • Confidence has weakened further, and past month data were revised lower.
  • Confidence has decreased in manufacturing and construction sectors over the month.


Italy: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 100.9 vs 102.5 expected (prior: 102.5)

  • Sentiment has declined on personal financial situation and current economic conditions. Views on future economic situation have improved a bit.


Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Jan.): 102.7 vs 101.8 expected (prior: 101.5 revised from 101.4)

  • Views were less negative on orders (both domestic and foreign) and have regained on production and economic outlook.
  • Opinions on employment have on contrary decreased over the month.


Spain: Unemployment rate (Q4-22): 12.87% vs 12.4% expected (prior: 12.67%)

  • Unemployed has increased over the period and in parallel the labor force has decreased.


Brazil: Current account (Dec.): -10878 M$ vs -6350 M$ expected (prior: -625 M$ revised from -30 M$)

  • Current account deficit has increased over the month, while foreign direct investment has decreased but remains larger than the current account deficit.
mercoledì 25 gennaio
German IFO: progressive rebuilding of expectations

Germany: IFO (Jan.): 90.2 vs 90.3 expected (prior: 88.6)

  • Business sentiment has rebounded from the prior month, mainly thanks to a rebound in expectations (from 83.2 the prior month to 86.4), while opinions on current situation has eroded (from 94.4 to 94.1). Despite its monthly rebound, the IFO expectations index remained in depressed camp.
  • By sector, the sentiment was less negative in manufacturing and trade (a rebound in expectations) from the prior month and has turned slightly positive in services.
  • Flash German PMIs have shown a rebound in services, while manufacturing index remained weak; the IFO pointed towards improving future conditions but still worries in the short run.


UK: PPI Input prices (Dec.): -1.1% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Prices have declined for materials for the second month, while fuel prices were up.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 18% y/y the prior month to 16.5% y/y.


UK: PPI Output prices (Dec.): -0.8% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • Oil prices have continued to fall over the month, but food prices stayed on the rise.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 16.2% y/y the prior month to 14.7% y/y.


Spain: PPI (Dec.): -1.7% m/m (prior: -2.4% revised from -2.2%)

  • Still a large fall in prices due to energy (-4.8% m/m) and prices in intermediary sector, while food prices remained sustained (1% m/m).
  • Yearly trend has declined from 20.5% y/y the prior month to 14.7% y/y.


Poland: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 5.2% as expected (prior: 5.1%)

  • After regular decline past months, unemployed has increased over the past two months, and the unemployment ratio has marginally increased over the month.


Brazil: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 85.8 (prior: 88)

  • Consumer confidence has declined over the month, being in a range since past Aug.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (Jan.): 103.4 (prior: 101.6)

  • Business sentiment has improved further over the month; opinions have regained on orders, exports, global business and also on inventories. Output was stable, while employment has decreased.

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Analisi 09.01.2023

The case for Chinese onshore convertible bonds

The Chinese onshore convertible bond market is the second-largest in the world. It has soared dramatically since early 2017 due to regulatory changes promoting more transparent financing. It is dominated by mid- and large-cap names offering diversified and balanced exposure to domestic Chinese growth.