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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

venerdì 01 dicembre
Business sentiment in manufacturing improving in Europe from depressed levels

US: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 49.4 as expected (prior: 50)

  • Final data remained close to expectations, pointing to more moderate activity than past month; sentiment has decreased on new orders, mainly on domestic orders while exports were slightly better oriented.
  • Views on employment have decreased while pressures on prices have eased.


US: Construction spending (Oct.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)

  • Residential construction has rebounded by 1.2% m/m (-0.2% m/m the prior month) and non-residential construction was just up by 0.1% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month).


US: ISM Manufacturing (Nov.): 46.7 vs 47.9 expected (prior: 46.7)

  • Business sentiment remained stable from the prior month, but details offered a mixed picture.
  • On the positive, new orders have strongly rebounded (index from 45.5 to 48.3) and the index settled on a six-month high level. Sentiment on inventories has also normalized.
  • On the negative, sentiment on production has fallen (from 50.4 to 48.5), as well as new exports and employment.
  • Prices paid have strongly rebounded as the index has regained from 45.1 to 49.9.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 44.2 vs 43.8 expected (prior: 43.1)

  • Final data were slightly better than expected and have shown a modest gain from the prior month.
  • The index has improved from the prior month for Germany and Spain and slightly for France; it has decreased in Italy.
  • New orders were generally better than in the first estimates and have shown modest gain from the prior month, but index remained well below the 50 level.
  • Employment remained negative; the decrease in cost has fueled some discount in selling prices.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 47.2 vs 46.7 expected (prior: 44.8)

  • Business confidence has finally regained more than expected, showing a bottoming out in many components.
  • Index remained well below 50, but opinions on production and new orders have regained from the prior month.
  • Employment has decreased further; despite falling costs, selling prices have slightly increased.


UK: Nationwide house prices (Nov.): 0.2% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • Demand remained positive for housing despite high and volatile interest rates.
  • Prices were down by 2.2% y/y after -3.3% y/y the prior month.


Italy: GDP (Q3-23): 0.1% q/q vs 0% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Q3 GDP growth was slightly revised up from first estimates.
  • Consumption was up by 0.7% q/q and exports up by 0.6% q/q, while other sectors were negative.


Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.7 vs 45.5 expected (prior: 44.5)

  • Business sentiment has rebounded, driven by higher new orders over the month.


Norway: PMI (Nov.): 49.9 (prior: 47.9)

  • Improving business sentiment and index back close to 50.


Norway: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 1.8% vs 1.9% expected (prior: 1.8%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased over the month but the ratio remained unchanged.


Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 49 (prior: 46.2 revised from 45.7)

  • A strong rebound from the prior month; all major components were strongly up over the month.


Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 42.1 vs 42 expected (prior: 40.6)

  • Business opinions have regained from depressed levels; sentiment has strongly rebounded on production and was less depressed on orders. Views on employment have decreased over the month.


Switzerland: GDP (Q3-23): 0.1% q/q vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)

  • Q3 GDP was firmer than expected but Q2 data were slightly revised down to negative figures.
  • Consumption was up by 0.2%q after 0.4%q in Q2 and construction also up by 0.2% q; public consumption was up by 0.5% q while investment was down by 1.1%.
  • Net trade contribution was more positive thanks to falling imports.
  • Outlook remained moderately positive and a 0.7% GDP growth for 2023 and 1.2% for 2024 is expected.


Brazil: Industrial production (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.1%)

  • Production was up over the month in intermediate goods but has decreased in capital and consumer goods.


Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 49.4 (prior: 48.6)

  • Business sentiment has rebounded, and the index was back just below 50; sentiment on employment and new orders has increased.


Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 47.2 (prior: 48.4)

  • Business confidence has declined on falling new orders.


giovedì 30 novembre
US: moderate growth in personal income & spending; ongoing yearly decline in core PCE inflation

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 25): 218 k as expected (prior: 211 k revised from 209 k)

  • Continuing claims: 1927 k after 1841 k the prior week.


US: Personal income (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

  • Wage growth was up by just 0.1% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month; real disposable income was up by 0.3% m/m after 0% the prior month.


US: Personal spending (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Purchases of goods have contracted by 0.2% m/m while services were still up by 0.4% m/m.
  • Saving ratio has regained from 3.7% the prior month to 3.8%.


US: Core PCE deflator (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Inflation has moderated and yearly trend has declined from 3.7% y/y the prior month to 3.5% y/y.


US: Chicago PMI (Nov.): 55.8 vs 46 expected (prior: 44)

  • Business sentiment has rebounded, driven up by higher production and new orders.
  • This strong rebound was probably due to the return to activity in the auto sector after the strike.


US: Pending home sales (Oct.): -1.5% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 1% revised from 1.1%)

  • Home sales have fallen over the month, but less than expected. Only one district (over 4) was up over the month (Northeast); one district has strongly fallen (West down by 6% m/m).


France: CPI (Nov.): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Preliminary data have shown a decline in prices over the month; energy prices were down by 1.1 % m/m and services were also down by 0.4% m/m.
  • Yearly trend has declined further from 4.5% y/y the prior month to 3.8% y/y.


France: Consumer spending (Oct.): -0.9% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.2%)

  • Sales were strong for autos (1% m/m) and also for clothes (0.5% m/m) but were heavily down for energy over the month.


France: GDP (Q3-23): -0.1% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • GDP growth has been revised down from first estimate and has shown finally a modest contraction.
  • Downwards revision was due to more negative trade contribution and lower investment than in first estimate, due to a fall in residential investment and more modest quarterly rise in equipment spending.
  • Private and public consumption was respectively up by 0.6% q and 0.5%q.


Germany: Retail sales (Oct.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.8%)

  • Sales have rebounded over the month after depressed data over the prior two months.
  • The rebound was mainly driven by clothes, internet sales and also by autos.


Germany: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 5.9% vs 5.8% expected (prior: 5.8%)

  • Unemployed has increased regularly over the past quarters; over the month, unemployed was up by 22 k after 31 k the prior month.
  • Vacancies have also regularly decreased over the past months.


Italy: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 7.8% vs 7.4% expected (prior: 7.6% revised from 7.4%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased over the prior month after a fall in July. In parallel, the activity ratio has increased regularly.


Italy: CPI (Nov.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • Prices have decreased more than expected over the month; prices of energy, transport and leisure-hotels have declined over the month.
  • The yearly trend has declined from 1.8% y/y the prior month to 0.7% y/y.


Poland: CPI (Nov.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Prices of energy have sharply rebounded over the month.
  • Yearly trend has just marginally decreased from 6.6% y/y the prior month to 6.5% y/y.


Switzerland: KOF (Nov.): 96.7 vs 96.5 expected (prior: 95.1 revised from 95.8)

  • Business sentiment has slightly regained after the fall seen the prior month. The index remained at low level compared to Q1-23 and to levels seen in 2018-19.


Brazil: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 7.6% as expected (prior: 7.7%)

  • Unemployed has decreased over the month and the participation rate has increased.


Turkey: GDP (Q3-23): 0.3% q/q vs 1% expected (prior: 3.3% revised from 3.5%)

  • Growth has slowed down more than expected as consumption has contracted over the quarter; on the opposite, net trade, investment and public spending were positive over the quarter.
mercoledì 29 novembre
Q3 US GDP growth even higher than in the first estimate, German inflation below expectations

US: GDP (Q3 S.): 5.2% q/q vs 5.0% expected (prior: 2.1%)

  • Slight upward revision from 4.9% q/q SAAR to an even stronger 5.2%.
  • Consumer spending rose to a less-robust 3.6% rate (vs 4.0% in the first estimate and +0.8% in Q2). This contributed to 2.4pp of GDP growth while private investment contributed to another 1.8pp (+10.5% q/q vs 8.4% in the first estimate). The change in inventories added 1.4pp and government consumption 0.9pp.
  • Economic growth will undoubtedly slow down from this very high pace, but is currently forecasted at a still robust 1.5%-2.0% in Q4 by the "real-time" estimates (such as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model).


US: Wholesale inventories (Oct. Prel): -0.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • On a y/y basis, wholesale inventories declined by 2.0%.


Eurozone: Economic confidence (Nov.): 93.8 vs 93.6 expected (prior: 93.5 revised from 93.3)

  • Industrial confidence: -9.5 vs -9.0 expected (prior: -9.2)
  • Service confidence: 4.9 vs 4.5 expected (prior: 4.6)
  • Construction confidence posted the largest increase (+0.7) mainly thanks to Spain. Retail confidence rose slightly by 0.4 points to -7.0 thanks to better business expectations. Services is the only sector where corporate confidence is still positive while confidence continues to be most depressed in the industrial sector.


Germany: CPI (Nov. Prel.): -0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • CPI y/y: 2.3% vs 2.5% expected (3.0%)
  • The annual rate of inflation continued to recede rapidly in November to 2.3% y/y (from a peak of 11.6% in October 2022). Energy prices led the decline, at -4.5% y/y in November after -3.2% in October, but core inflation also decreased further to 3.8% y/y from 4.3%. The slowdown in services prices (from 3.9% to 3.4%) is particularly encouraging.
  • Still, inflation is set to rebound in December, primarily due to base effects (the government had artificially reduced the price level by paying certain energy bills for households).


Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Nov.): 96.6 vs 95.9 expected (prior: 96.1 revised from 96.0)

  • Manufacturing confidence unexpectedly improved in November (back to September's level) but sentiment deteriorated in construction and services (ex retailers' which edged higher).


Italy: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 103.6 vs 102.0 expected (prior: 101.6)

  • Consumer confidence slightly recovered in November but remains slightly below the levels seen during most of the year.


Spain: CPI (Nov. Prel.): -0.6% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • CPI y/y: 3.2% vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.5%)
  • Unexpected decline in annual inflation to 3.2%. Inflation was actually below this level during the summer thanks to base effect.
  • Core inflation also declined much more than expected to 4.5% y/y (vs 5.0% expected) from 5.2% in October.
martedì 28 novembre
Consumer sentiment has improved in the US, France, and Germany

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Sept.): 3.92% y/y vs 3.9% expected (prior: 2.14% revised from 2.16%)

  • Prices have increased by 0.67% m/m after 0.82% m/m the prior month. Except two cities, all other have shown rises in prices above 0.50% m/m.
  • Only 3 cities have shown a contraction in yearly prices; 8 cities have shown prices above 5% y/y.


US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Nov.): 102 vs 101 expected (prior: 99.1 revised from 102.6)

  • Consumer sentiment was slightly better than expected and in rebound from the prior month after downwards revisions.
  • Sentiment on current situation has marginally decreased, while expectations have increased from the prior month; the related expectations index was back to its June level.
  • Sentiment remained stable on current labor after the decrease seen the prior month; detailed views on current labor conditions were mixed.
  • The 6-month views have improved and were more positive than the prior month for business, income and labor.
  • Willingness to buy autos, houses and big items has regained after weak numbers the prior month.
  • 12-month inflation expectations have marginally eased from 5.9% to 5.7% y/y (average) and from 5% to 4.8% (median).


US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Nov.): -5 vs 1 expected (prior: 3)

  • Business sentiment has decreased after the improvement seen over the past two months; the index was back to the Aug. level.
  • Views have decreased on shipment, employment, and local business conditions in the short run.
  • Expectations have also decreased on lower shipments and orders, but the outlook was more positive for capex, wages, and employment.


Eurozone: M3 (Oct.): -1% y/y vs -0.9% expected (prior: -1.2%)

  • M1 was down by 10% y/y after -9.9% y/y the prior month; M2 stayed on same pace of contraction as the prior month at -2.2% y/y.
  • Credit to the private sector was flat on a yearly basis after -0.3% y/y the prior month.
  • The tight monetary policy has been transmitted to real activity and credit has weakened; credit performance by country is diverging while demand from corporates was globally depressed.


France: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 87 vs 84 expected (prior: 84)

  • Opinions were less negative on past and future personal and economic conditions. Concerns remained about future unemployment and inflation.


Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Dec.): -27.8 vs -28 expected (prior: -28.3 revised from -28.1)

  • First estimate of consumer confidence has shown a modest improvement after the large fall seen the prior month.
  • The fall was triggered by the outlook on inflation and income; no details on the small improvement on the Dec. index, but probably related to a declining inflation.
lunedì 27 novembre
US: volatile new home sales

US: New home sales (Oct.): 679k vs 721k expected (prior: 719k revised from 759k)

  • Sales have declined over the month but remained higher than the lows seen last Aug.
  • Sales have decreased over the month in tow districts but increased in the other 2 districts. South and West districts remained as the largest sales locations.
  • Inventories have increased over the month and reached high relative levels over the past 6 months.
  • Prices (median) have decreased by 3.1% m/m and by a more pronounced 17.6% y/y (-11.6% y/y the prior month).


Norway: Retail sales (Oct.): 0.6% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.3%)

  • Sales have rebounded, driven up by sport and leisure goods over the month; demand was more sustained than expected.

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