US: Employment cost index (Q4-22): 1% q/q vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.2%)
- Wages were up by 1% q/q after 1.3% q/q in Q3-22; benefits were up by 0.8% q after 1%q in Q3.
- Labor cost has marginally eased in Q4, but the trend remained sustained, and probably too high on a Fed's point of view.
US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Nov.): 6.77% y/y vs 6.8% expected (prior: 8.64%)
- Prices were down by 0.54% m/m over the month; prices were negative or flat across all the regions.
US: Chicago PMI (Jan.): 44.3 vs 45 expected (prior: 45.1 revised from 44.9)
- Business confidence has decreased over the month, sentiment weakened on production, new orders and employment but on the opposite, it has increased for prices paid.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Jan.): 107.1 vs 109 expected (prior: 109 revised from 108.3)
- Sentiment on current situation has increased from the prior month, but expectations have declined (index from 83.4 the prior month to 77.8).
- On current situation, views have improved on labor and activity. Expectations have weakened as the balance of opinions turned less bullish on future activity and labor.
- Plans to buy autos has increased from the prior month but decreased on houses and were stable about other items.
- Inflation expectations (12 month) have increased from 6.6% y/y to 6.8% y/y (average index).
Eurozone: GDP (Q4-22): 0.1% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- First estimates have pointed to firmer growth than expected in Q4-22.
- Q4 GDP data were sharply negative in Austria, moderately negative in Germany and Italy, slightly positive in France, and more positive in Spain.
- Irish GDP has strongly rebounded in Q3 (2.3%q) and in Q4 (3.5%q), thanks to multinational industries based in the country, that have boosted investment and exports. Without Irish GDP data, eurozone GDP growth would have been closer to the consensus (-0.1%q) in Q4.
France: GDP (Q4-22): 0.1% q/q vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Growth was slightly better than expected but large divergence was seen across sectors.
- Consumption was down by 0.9% q/q after 0.5% q/q the prior period, only purchases of services were positive (0.5% q/q).
- Capex remained positive but it has slowed down from 3.8% in Q3 to 1.2% in Q4, with parallel slowdown in manufacturing and services sectors.
- Imports have sharply declined (-1.9%), more than exports (-0.3% q/q), so that net trade contribution was positive to GDP (0.5 pp).
- Net inventory contribution was negative by 0.2pp tp GDP growth in Q4-22.
- GDP growth was up by 2.6% in 2022; 2023 outlook point to weak growth (-0.2%/0% in 2023) with negative trend in domestic demand in H1-23.
France: Consumer spending (Dec.): -1.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)
- All sectors have shown a sharp contraction except clothes and energy segments.
- A sharp reversal was seen in purchases of autos and durable goods after a rebound in Nov.
- Strikes and fears about pension reforms should fuel downside risks on consumption trend in Q1.
France: Producer Prices (Dec.): 1.4% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Prices of energy and transport remained sustained over the month, as the prior month.
- Yearly trend has marginally declined from 20.9% y/y to 20.7% y/y.
France: CPI (Jan.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Inflation was more sustained on a monthly basis, due to energy (changes in cap on energy prices from the government) and food prices. On a positive tone, prices for manufactured goods were down by 1% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
- Yearly trend has increased from 6.7% to 7% y/y.
- A lot of volatility was expected in Jan. data after positive surprises the prior months; the rebound seen in Jan inflation in Europe was expected (volatile energy prices and changes in cap on energy prices from different governments) and should remain just one point; the downward trend in headline inflation should continue unless new shock on energy prices.
Germany: Retail sales (Dec.): -5.3% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 1.9% revised from 1.1%)
- All sectors have sharply reversed from the prior month
Germany: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 5.5% as expected (prior: 5.5%)
- Unemployed has decreased by 22 k over the month after -16 k the prior month.
Italy: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 7.8% as expected (prior: 7.8%)
- Unemployed remained quite stable over the period.
Italy: GDP (Q4-22): -0.1% q/q vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- GDP has contracted slightly less than expected over the quarter. No details were available, but it seemed that domestic demand was negative while net exports have contributed positively to quarterly GDP.
UK: M4 (Dec.): 1.6% y/y (prior: 2.5%)
- M4 lending growth has slowed down from2.2% y/y the prior month to 1.7% y/y. Credit to SMEs has slowed down and mortgage approvals have also slowed down over the month.