Analisi del mercato

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 25): 218 k as expected (prior: 211 k revised from 209 k)

• Continuing claims: 1927 k after 1841 k the prior week.

 

US: Personal income (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

• Wage growth was up by just 0.1% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month; real disposable income was up by 0.3% m/m after 0% the prior month.

 

US: Personal spending (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Purchases of goods have contracted by 0.2% m/m while services were still up by 0.4% m/m.
• Saving ratio has regained from 3.7% the prior month to 3.8%.

 

US: Core PCE deflator (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Inflation has moderated and yearly trend has declined from 3.7% y/y the prior month to 3.5% y/y.

 

US: Chicago PMI (Nov.): 55.8 vs 46 expected (prior: 44)

• Business sentiment has rebounded, driven up by higher production and new orders.
• This strong rebound was probably due to the return to activity in the auto sector after the strike.

 

US: Pending home sales (Oct.): -1.5% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 1% revised from 1.1%)

• Home sales have fallen over the month, but less than expected. Only one district (over 4) was up over the month (Northeast); one district has strongly fallen (West down by 6% m/m).

 

France: CPI (Nov.): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Preliminary data have shown a decline in prices over the month; energy prices were down by 1.1 % m/m and services were also down by 0.4% m/m.
• Yearly trend has declined further from 4.5% y/y the prior month to 3.8% y/y.

 

France: Consumer spending (Oct.): -0.9% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.2%)

• Sales were strong for autos (1% m/m) and also for clothes (0.5% m/m) but were heavily down for energy over the month.

 

France: GDP (Q3-23): -0.1% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• GDP growth has been revised down from first estimate and has shown finally a modest contraction.
• Downwards revision was due to more negative trade contribution and lower investment than in first estimate, due to a fall in residential investment and more modest quarterly rise in equipment spending.
• Private and public consumption was respectively up by 0.6% q and 0.5%q.

 

Germany: Retail sales (Oct.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.8%)

• Sales have rebounded over the month after depressed data over the prior two months.
• The rebound was mainly driven by clothes, internet sales and also by autos.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 5.9% vs 5.8% expected (prior: 5.8%)

• Unemployed has increased regularly over the past quarters; over the month, unemployed was up by 22 k after 31 k the prior month.
• Vacancies have also regularly decreased over the past months.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 7.8% vs 7.4% expected (prior: 7.6% revised from 7.4%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the prior month after a fall in July. In parallel, the activity ratio has increased regularly.

 

Italy: CPI (Nov.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Prices have decreased more than expected over the month; prices of energy, transport and leisure-hotels have declined over the month.
• The yearly trend has declined from 1.8% y/y the prior month to 0.7% y/y.

 

Poland: CPI (Nov.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Prices of energy have sharply rebounded over the month.
• Yearly trend has just marginally decreased from 6.6% y/y the prior month to 6.5% y/y.

 

Switzerland: KOF (Nov.): 96.7 vs 96.5 expected (prior: 95.1 revised from 95.8)

• Business sentiment has slightly regained after the fall seen the prior month. The index remained at low level compared to Q1-23 and to levels seen in 2018-19.

 

Brazil: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 7.6% as expected (prior: 7.7%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month and the participation rate has increased.

 

Turkey: GDP (Q3-23): 0.3% q/q vs 1% expected (prior: 3.3% revised from 3.5%)

• Growth has slowed down more than expected as consumption has contracted over the quarter; on the opposite, net trade, investment and public spending were positive over the quarter.

US: GDP (Q3 S.): 5.2% q/q vs 5.0% expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Slight upward revision from 4.9% q/q SAAR to an even stronger 5.2%.
• Consumer spending rose to a less-robust 3.6% rate (vs 4.0% in the first estimate and +0.8% in Q2). This contributed to 2.4pp of GDP growth while private investment contributed to another 1.8pp (+10.5% q/q vs 8.4% in the first estimate). The change in inventories added 1.4pp and government consumption 0.9pp.
• Economic growth will undoubtedly slow down from this very high pace, but is currently forecasted at a still robust 1.5%-2.0% in Q4 by the "real-time" estimates (such as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model).

 

US: Wholesale inventories (Oct. Prel): -0.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• On a y/y basis, wholesale inventories declined by 2.0%.

 

Eurozone: Economic confidence (Nov.): 93.8 vs 93.6 expected (prior: 93.5 revised from 93.3)

• Industrial confidence: -9.5 vs -9.0 expected (prior: -9.2)
• Service confidence: 4.9 vs 4.5 expected (prior: 4.6)
• Construction confidence posted the largest increase (+0.7) mainly thanks to Spain. Retail confidence rose slightly by 0.4 points to -7.0 thanks to better business expectations. Services is the only sector where corporate confidence is still positive while confidence continues to be most depressed in the industrial sector.

 

Germany: CPI (Nov. Prel.): -0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• CPI y/y: 2.3% vs 2.5% expected (3.0%)
• The annual rate of inflation continued to recede rapidly in November to 2.3% y/y (from a peak of 11.6% in October 2022). Energy prices led the decline, at -4.5% y/y in November after -3.2% in October, but core inflation also decreased further to 3.8% y/y from 4.3%. The slowdown in services prices (from 3.9% to 3.4%) is particularly encouraging.
• Still, inflation is set to rebound in December, primarily due to base effects (the government had artificially reduced the price level by paying certain energy bills for households).

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Nov.): 96.6 vs 95.9 expected (prior: 96.1 revised from 96.0)

• Manufacturing confidence unexpectedly improved in November (back to September's level) but sentiment deteriorated in construction and services (ex retailers' which edged higher).

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 103.6 vs 102.0 expected (prior: 101.6)

• Consumer confidence slightly recovered in November but remains slightly below the levels seen during most of the year.

 

Spain: CPI (Nov. Prel.): -0.6% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• CPI y/y: 3.2% vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.5%)
• Unexpected decline in annual inflation to 3.2%. Inflation was actually below this level during the summer thanks to base effect.
• Core inflation also declined much more than expected to 4.5% y/y (vs 5.0% expected) from 5.2% in October.

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Sept.): 3.92% y/y vs 3.9% expected (prior: 2.14% revised from 2.16%)

• Prices have increased by 0.67% m/m after 0.82% m/m the prior month. Except two cities, all other have shown rises in prices above 0.50% m/m.
• Only 3 cities have shown a contraction in yearly prices; 8 cities have shown prices above 5% y/y.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Nov.): 102 vs 101 expected (prior: 99.1 revised from 102.6)

• Consumer sentiment was slightly better than expected and in rebound from the prior month after downwards revisions.
• Sentiment on current situation has marginally decreased, while expectations have increased from the prior month; the related expectations index was back to its June level.
• Sentiment remained stable on current labor after the decrease seen the prior month; detailed views on current labor conditions were mixed.
• The 6-month views have improved and were more positive than the prior month for business, income and labor.
• Willingness to buy autos, houses and big items has regained after weak numbers the prior month.
• 12-month inflation expectations have marginally eased from 5.9% to 5.7% y/y (average) and from 5% to 4.8% (median).

 

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Nov.): -5 vs 1 expected (prior: 3)

• Business sentiment has decreased after the improvement seen over the past two months; the index was back to the Aug. level.
• Views have decreased on shipment, employment, and local business conditions in the short run.
• Expectations have also decreased on lower shipments and orders, but the outlook was more positive for capex, wages, and employment.

 

Eurozone: M3 (Oct.): -1% y/y vs -0.9% expected (prior: -1.2%)

• M1 was down by 10% y/y after -9.9% y/y the prior month; M2 stayed on same pace of contraction as the prior month at -2.2% y/y.
• Credit to the private sector was flat on a yearly basis after -0.3% y/y the prior month.
• The tight monetary policy has been transmitted to real activity and credit has weakened; credit performance by country is diverging while demand from corporates was globally depressed.

 

France: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 87 vs 84 expected (prior: 84)

• Opinions were less negative on past and future personal and economic conditions. Concerns remained about future unemployment and inflation.

 

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Dec.): -27.8 vs -28 expected (prior: -28.3 revised from -28.1)

• First estimate of consumer confidence has shown a modest improvement after the large fall seen the prior month.
• The fall was triggered by the outlook on inflation and income; no details on the small improvement on the Dec. index, but probably related to a declining inflation.

US: New home sales (Oct.): 679k vs 721k expected (prior: 719k revised from 759k)

• Sales have declined over the month but remained higher than the lows seen last Aug.
• Sales have decreased over the month in tow districts but increased in the other 2 districts. South and West districts remained as the largest sales locations.
• Inventories have increased over the month and reached high relative levels over the past 6 months.
• Prices (median) have decreased by 3.1% m/m and by a more pronounced 17.6% y/y (-11.6% y/y the prior month).

 

Norway: Retail sales (Oct.): 0.6% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Sales have rebounded, driven up by sport and leisure goods over the month; demand was more sustained than expected.