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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

venerdì 17 maggio
Eurozone core inflation down in April

Eurozone: CPI (April F.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • CPI y/y: 2.4% as expected (prior: 2.4%)
  • Core CPI y/y: 2.7% as expected (prior: 2.9%)
  • The final release confirmed that headline inflation remained at 2.4% in April and that core inflation declined to 2.7% from 2.9% in March.
  • Importantly, services price inflation fell to 3.7% after standing at 4.0% for five months.
  • Headline and core inflation should continue to drift downward in the coming months, and the ECB is very likely to cut rates in June.



giovedì 16 maggio
US: weak housing starts for single-family houses and flat industrial production

US: Initial jobless claims (May 11): 222k vs 220k expected (prior: 232k revised from 231k)

  • Continuing claims: 1794 k after 1781 k the prior week.


US: Housing starts (April): 1360k vs 1421k expected (prior: 1287k revised from 1321k)

  • Data have rebounded from the prior month but remained well below consensus expectations.
  • The monthly rebound was mainly driven by multi-family houses while single-family houses have modestly decreased (from 1035 k prior month to 1031 k).
  • Building permits have decreased for both categories, from 1485 k in aggregated terms to 1440 k.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): 4.5 vs 7.8 expected (prior: 15.5)

  • Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions have decreased on new orders, shipments and on prices paid.
  • The 6-month index has also decreased on lower new orders and prices paid; index remained constructive on shipments and employment.


US: Industrial production (April): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.4%)

  • Manufacturing production was down by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month due to a large fall in auto and machinery production.
  • Activity in utility remained strong up by 2.8% m/m after 1.6% m/m prior month.


Italy: CPI (April): 0.5% m/m (prior: 1.2%)

  • Over the moth, prices of clothes and leisure services have accelerated while prices of electricity and communication were down.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 1.2% y/y the prior month to 0.9% y/y.


Norway: GDP Mainland (Q1-24): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Activity has expanded thanks to manufacturing and services for oil industry.
  • By expenditure, consumption and investment were down over the quarter while public consumption was up.
mercoledì 15 maggio
US: inflation slightly lower than expected and weak retail sales

US: CPI (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Inflation has come just slightly lower than expected over the month; core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.
  • Energy prices were up by 1.1% m/m as seen the prior month (higher gasoline prices); food was flat over the month and prices of goods remained in contraction (down by 0.1% m/m after -0.2% m/m); within this sector, prices for furniture and cars were down but prices of apparels remained on sustained monthly rise.
  • Services were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month; shelter remained on stable trend (0.4% m/m), while modest easing in month-to-month change was seen for medical care (from 0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m), transport services (from 1.5% m/m to 0.9% m/m); on the opposite, recreation (0.3% m/m) and other personal services (1.1% m/m) have accelerated.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 3.8% y/y prior month to 3.6% y/y and from 3.5% to 3.4% y/y for core inflation.
  • Inflation remained above 3% y/y and services continue to drive the trend; nevertheless, monthly changes in services have moderated from the prior month; more of decline/moderation in services is needed for the Fed to rebuild high confidence on disinflation trend.


US: NY Empire manufacturing (May): -15.6 vs -10 expected (prior: -14.3)

  • Both sentiment on current situation and the 6-month index have decreased over the month.
  • Opinions have decreased on new orders, employment, and prices, while those on shipments have slightly regained.


US: Retail sales (April): 0% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)

  • Core sales (ex-building materials, autos, food, and energy) were down by 0.3% m/m after 1% m/m.
  • Sales were down for autos (main negative contribution to the monthly fall), and for furniture and sport.
  • Sales were on positive trend over the past month for gasoline and building materials and have rebounded over the month on electronics and clothes.
  • Moderation in sales may fuel the idea the economy is not overheating; nevertheless, sales reflect weak momentum in purchases of goods, while demand may remain sustained in services (not included in these monthly sales data).


US: Business inventories (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

  • Inventories were down for wholesalers but on the rise for retailers and manufacturing sectors; the trend remained on the rise for the auto sector, and it has also increased for general merchandise.
  • Total sales have increased, and the inventory-to-sales ratio remained globally stable.


US: NAHB housing market index (May): 45 vs 50 expected (prior: 51)

  • Sentiment has turned abruptly negative on all components of housing demand due to the rise seen past months on mortgage rates.
  • The index was back to its Jan. level.


Eurozone: Industrial production (March): 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.8%)

  • Production has rebounded more than consensus was expecting during the month.
  • Nevertheless, the rebound was centred on capital goods, while other sectors have contracted, particularly energy and consumer goods.
  • Irish production remained highly volatile and was up by 12% m/m, while industrial activity was down in the 4 major countries of the area.


France: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Monthly changes remained sustained and in line with first estimates. Prices of clothes, oil, and services (transport) were firmer over the month.
  • Yearly trend remained stable at 2.4% y/y.


Poland: CPI (April): 1.1% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Prices have accelerated over the month, due to several sectors; prices were firmer for food, clothes, transport-fuel, and services to tourism.
  • Yearly trend has re-accelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.0% y/y the prior month.


Poland: GDP (Q1-24): 0.4% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)

  • GDP has rebounded after a contraction in Q4-23; no details by sector were available but services have probably driven the Q1 rebound, while other sectors were weak.


Sweden: CPI (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Prices have regained over the month for clothes, health, and restaurants-hotels.
  • Yearly trend has regained from 2.2% y/y the prior month to 2.3% y/y; core inflation remained stable at 2.9%y/y.
martedì 14 maggio
US PPI stronger than expected; Germany ZEW expectations rebounding further

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (April): 89.7 vs 88.2 expected (prior: 88.5)

  • Sentiment has regained after a fall in the prior month; the index was back to average Feb.-Jan. level.
  • Sentiment has improved on capex and hiring from the prior month and was less negative on future sales; nevertheless, views on economy have deteriorated while credit remained a constraint.
  • There was less pressure on selling prices.


US: PPI (April): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • Prices remained on sustained monthly change, but prior month data were significantly revised down.
  • Energy prices were strong (2.0% m/m after -1.3% m/m prior month); services remained sustained (0.6% m/m after -0.1% m/m, due to trade costs), and good prices were up by 0.4% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month. Prices have contracted for food and warehouses services over the month. Core PPI were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend was up by 2.2% y/y after 2.1% y/y the prior month.
  • Upside risks remained in place on the inflation front.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (March): 4.3% as expected (prior: 4.2%)

  • Claimant count: 4.1% after 4.1% the prior month (4.0%).
  • Employed has declined by 178 k over the 3-month period. Unemployed has increased by 166k over the period after -67 k the past period. Over the Jan-March period, employed full time has increased from the previous period, but the decrease was seen for self-employed, part-time, and temporary workers.
  • Vacancies have continued to regularly decrease (898 k in Feb-April).
  • Momentum in labor has turned less positive, but the rise in unemployment ratio is still limited.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (March): 5.7% y/y vs 5.5% expected (prior: 5.7% revised from 5.6%)

  • Wage growth remained on the same trend as the prior month. But the picture has shown larger divergences across sectors.
  • Wages have increased in services (6.0% y/y after 5.9% y/y prior month, due to the finance sector (bonus effect). Trend has decreased in manufacturing (5.9% after 6.6% y/y prior month) and collapsed on construction and retail-hotel sectors.
  • Wage growth remained high, but disparities have increased across sectors, pointing to slower wage growth in the next quarters.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (April): 0.6% m/m (prior: 0.1%)

  • Prices have accelerated due to import prices, up by 0.9% m/m (0.1% m/m the prior month); producer prices were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
  • Yearly trend has still declined but at a slower pace at -1.8% y/y after -2.1% y/y the prior month.


Germany: Zew (May): 47.1 vs 46.4 expected (prior: 42.9)

  • Expectations have regained further while sentiment on current situation has only modestly regained (index up to -72.3 after -79.2 the prior month).
  • Sentiment has improved for services, retail, construction and also engineering chemical and finance; opinions in other sectors remained stable or even declined in terms of expectations.
  • A more constructive environment but fragilities across sectors remained in place.


Germany: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inflation remained sustained on a monthly basis, as seen in preliminary data.
  • Several sectors have shown a strong monthly rise: energy, clothes, food, hotels and other services.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 2.3% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y.


Spain: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 1.4%)

  • Monthly change was sustained as seen in preliminary data; prices for clothes, hotels-restaurants and food were strong on a monthly basis.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 3.3% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.
lunedì 13 maggio
Turkish current account deficit regained in March

Turkey: Current account (March): -4.54bn USD vs -3.75bn expected (prior: -3.64bn revised from -3.27bn)

  • Current account deficit has increased due to rising deficit on goods and lower surplus on services over the month.
  • Official reserves have decreased by USD 10.28 bn due to capital outflows.

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Analisi 08.05.2024

UBP House View - May 2024

In light of the extended duration of high interest rates, we’re employing a carry strategy, ramping up our allocation to high-yield bonds.