US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 25): 218 k as expected (prior: 211 k revised from 209 k)
- Continuing claims: 1927 k after 1841 k the prior week.
US: Personal income (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)
- Wage growth was up by just 0.1% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month; real disposable income was up by 0.3% m/m after 0% the prior month.
US: Personal spending (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Purchases of goods have contracted by 0.2% m/m while services were still up by 0.4% m/m.
- Saving ratio has regained from 3.7% the prior month to 3.8%.
US: Core PCE deflator (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Inflation has moderated and yearly trend has declined from 3.7% y/y the prior month to 3.5% y/y.
US: Chicago PMI (Nov.): 55.8 vs 46 expected (prior: 44)
- Business sentiment has rebounded, driven up by higher production and new orders.
- This strong rebound was probably due to the return to activity in the auto sector after the strike.
US: Pending home sales (Oct.): -1.5% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 1% revised from 1.1%)
- Home sales have fallen over the month, but less than expected. Only one district (over 4) was up over the month (Northeast); one district has strongly fallen (West down by 6% m/m).
France: CPI (Nov.): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Preliminary data have shown a decline in prices over the month; energy prices were down by 1.1 % m/m and services were also down by 0.4% m/m.
- Yearly trend has declined further from 4.5% y/y the prior month to 3.8% y/y.
France: Consumer spending (Oct.): -0.9% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.2%)
- Sales were strong for autos (1% m/m) and also for clothes (0.5% m/m) but were heavily down for energy over the month.
France: GDP (Q3-23): -0.1% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.6%)
- GDP growth has been revised down from first estimate and has shown finally a modest contraction.
- Downwards revision was due to more negative trade contribution and lower investment than in first estimate, due to a fall in residential investment and more modest quarterly rise in equipment spending.
- Private and public consumption was respectively up by 0.6% q and 0.5%q.
Germany: Retail sales (Oct.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.8%)
- Sales have rebounded over the month after depressed data over the prior two months.
- The rebound was mainly driven by clothes, internet sales and also by autos.
Germany: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 5.9% vs 5.8% expected (prior: 5.8%)
- Unemployed has increased regularly over the past quarters; over the month, unemployed was up by 22 k after 31 k the prior month.
- Vacancies have also regularly decreased over the past months.
Italy: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 7.8% vs 7.4% expected (prior: 7.6% revised from 7.4%)
- Unemployed has slightly increased over the prior month after a fall in July. In parallel, the activity ratio has increased regularly.
Italy: CPI (Nov.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)
- Prices have decreased more than expected over the month; prices of energy, transport and leisure-hotels have declined over the month.
- The yearly trend has declined from 1.8% y/y the prior month to 0.7% y/y.
Poland: CPI (Nov.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Prices of energy have sharply rebounded over the month.
- Yearly trend has just marginally decreased from 6.6% y/y the prior month to 6.5% y/y.
Switzerland: KOF (Nov.): 96.7 vs 96.5 expected (prior: 95.1 revised from 95.8)
- Business sentiment has slightly regained after the fall seen the prior month. The index remained at low level compared to Q1-23 and to levels seen in 2018-19.
Brazil: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 7.6% as expected (prior: 7.7%)
- Unemployed has decreased over the month and the participation rate has increased.
Turkey: GDP (Q3-23): 0.3% q/q vs 1% expected (prior: 3.3% revised from 3.5%)
- Growth has slowed down more than expected as consumption has contracted over the quarter; on the opposite, net trade, investment and public spending were positive over the quarter.