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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

martedì 27 settembre
US: better than expected consumer confidence (Conf. Board), Richmond Fed index and new home sales

US: Durable goods orders (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • A large fall in orders of civil aircrafts, but a rebound in core capital goods orders (non-defense and ex aircraft), up by 1.3% m/m after -0.6% m/m the prior month, due to a rebound in electrical equipment orders (1% m/m after -0.6% m/m).
  • Shipments were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.2% m/m (core capital goods: 0.3% m/m after 0.6% m/m); inventories stayed on a 0.2% m/m trend (core capital goods: 0.3% m/m after 0.4% m/m).

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (July): 16.06% y/y vs 17.05% expected (prior: 18.66% revised from 18.65%)

  • Prices of houses have declined from the prior month; monthly, prices have contracted for the first time since many months (-0.44% m/m after 0.20% m/m the prior month).
  • All districts, except 2 over 20 districts, have still shown double-digit figures for yearly trend; just have just passed below 10% y/y.
  • Further decline in prices should result from the Fed's strategy.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Sept.): 108 vs 104.6 expected (prior: 103.6 revised from 103.2)

  • Surprisingly, consumer confidence has rebounded after lows seen in June-July.
  • Sentiment on current conditions has increased from 145.3 the prior month to 149.6, and expectations from 75.8 to 80.3. This index was back to its Feb. level.
  • Views have turned more positive on labor (jobs easy to get) after a fall in June-July. Business conditions and employment were seen as being more positive after a period of weakness.
  • Willingness to buy has increased on autos and major items, while the index remained cautious on houses.
  • Inflation expectations (separate question non included in the index) has declined from 7% to 6.8% y/y.
  • The easing in energy prices and a still sustained trend in job creations and wages have fueled this monthly rebound in confidence; this is not what M. Powell has mentioned regarding the trend expected on the future economy, i.e. pointing towards more pain in the real economy and a rebalancing (slower job creations) labor.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Sept.): 0 vs -10 expected (prior: -8)

  • Business sentiment has improved from the prior month and the index was back to its July level.
  • On both current situation and 6-months views, improving sentiment was seen for shipments, orders, business conditions and capex. Some decline is seen and expected on inflation (both prices paid and received).
  • Views on employment has moderated from the prior month.

US: New home sales (Aug.): 685k vs 600k expected (prior: 532k revised from 511k)

  • Sales were stronger than expected over the month; sales have increased in all 4 districts but driven by strong sales in South district (467 k).
  • Inventories have declined and some correction in prices were seen, up by 8% y/y after 14.9% y/y the prior month (median data) and monthly change was negative (-6.3% m/m).

Eurozone: M3 (Aug.): 6.1% y/y vs 5.4% expected (prior: 5.7% revised from 5.5%)

  • Growth of monetary aggregates has accelerated over the prior month after period of slowdown.
  • M1 growth was up by 6.8% y/y and M2 up by 6.3% y/y after 5.9% y/y prior month.
  • Credit to private sector was up by 5.5% y/y after 5.2% y/y. Withing credit, consumer credit growth (card and housing loans) has shown some slowdown, while credit to non-financial corporates has accelerated regularly since June (up by 7.8% y/y after 6.6% y/y).
  • Most dynamic part of credit to corporate was below 1-year category and up by 18% y/y.

Brazil: CPI (Sept.): -0.37% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.73%)

  • Prices of food, energy-transport and communication have sharply declined over the month; on the opposite, prices of housing, health care and personal expenses remained on sustained monthly change.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 9.6% y/y the prior month to 7.96% y/y.
lunedì 26 settembre
Germany: further decline in IFO expectations

Germany: IFO (Sept.): 84.3 vs 87 expected (prior: 88.6 revised from 88.5)

  • Business sentiment has deteriorated further over the month. Sentiment has decreased on current situation (index from 97.5 to 94.5), and expectations have sharply fallen (from 80.5 to 75.2).
  • Expectations have reached depressed levels, being close to the lows seen in the Covid period (expectations index at 71.9 in April 2020).
  • By sector, sentiment has dramatically declined from the prior month in all major sectors (manufacturing, services and construction).

Spain: PPI (Aug.): 2.8% m/m (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

  • Rises of electricity and gas have pushed up PPI inflation; prices of intermediate and manufacturing goods prices were down over the month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further, from 40.5% y/y to 41.8% y/y.

Brazil: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 89 (prior: 83.6)

  • Consumer confidence has slightly regained after several months of being in a range,

Brazil: Current account (July): -4136 M$ vs -3250 M$ expected (prior: 1333 M$)

  • While current account deficit has increased over the month, foreign direct investment has increased from USD 5198 M the prior month to USD 7723 M.

Turkey: Industrial confidence (Sept.): 100.2 (prior: 101.4)

  • Business confidence has decreased, being on a declining trend over the past months.
  • Views on orders have decreased while exports were fragile and current production stable.
venerdì 23 settembre
Higher PMIs in the US, worse than expected in the eurozone, mixed in UK

US: Manufacturing PMI (Sept. Prel.): 51.8 vs 51.0 expected (prior: 51.5)

  • The manufacturing sector shows resilience with an unexpected increase in the headline index, and employment rising to 53.4, the highest reading since last March.


US: Services PMI (Sept. Prel.): 49.2 vs 45.5 expected (prior: 43.7)

  • The headline index rebounded significantly more than expected to the highest level since last June.
  • Employment edged lower to 52 (lowest since Dec 2021) from 53, while prices charged declined to the lowest reading since Jan. 2021 - a glimmer of hope for inflation.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Sept. Prel.): 48.5 vs 48.8 expected (prior: 49.6)

  • Germany: 48.3 as expected (prior: 49.1)
  • France: 47.8 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 50.6)
  • Manufacturing output declined again, but only slightly (-0.3pt, 46.2). However, the forward-looking indicators deteriorated more sharply, with new orders down 2pt to 41.3 and expectations for future output down 7.6pt to 45.1. Employment, albeit still elevated, is also slowing (51.1, -0.7pt).


Eurozone: PMI Services (Sept. Prel.): 48.9 vs 49.1 expected (prior: 49.8)

  • Germany: 45.4 vs 47.2 expected (prior: 47.7)
  • France: 53.0 vs 50.5 (prior: 51.2)
  • The headline services PMI is now well below the 50-threshold, and all services-activity-related indicators were weaker in September.
  • After the tourism-driven strength, the periphery is now deteriorating in line with core (-1.7pt to 49.2). With a 1.8pt rise, France was an outlier, which may be explained by the fact that the country is less exposed to the shortage of Russian gas.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (Sept. Prel.): 48.5 vs 47.5 expected (prior: 47.3)

  • A modest rebound following the sharp decline in August, but still in contractionary territory.


UK: PMI Services (Sept. Prel.): 49.2 vs 50.0 expected (prior: 50.9)

  • With the index in contraction territory for the first time since February 2021, the summer tailwind for services appears to dissipate, increasing risks that the UK is already in recession.
  • However, employment and prices continue to show resilience.


UK: GFK consumer confidence (Sept.): -49 vs -42 expected (prior: -44)

Consumer confidence dipped further into uncharted territory (since the survey started in 1974).

giovedì 22 settembre
New round of key interest rates hikes (BoE, SNB, Norges Bank) in developed countries

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept. 17): 213k vs 217k expected (prior: 208k revised from 213k)

  • Continuing claims: 1379 k after 140 k the prior week.

Switzerland: The SNB has increased key rates by 75 bp to 0.50%.

  • Facing strong rise in inflation (3.5% y/y in Aug.) and a broad increase across good prices and services, the SNB has decided to accelerate its pace of tightening. The door remains open to new (strong) rise in the next meeting. The inflation forecasts point to 3% in 2022, a still 2.4% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024, and inflation target remains at 2%.
  • The SNB still expects 2% growth this year but recognizes major downside risks to activity and upside risks on inflation.
  • With a return to positive interest rates, sight deposits will be remunerated by the SNB until a threshold (0% above this).
  • The SNB still mentioned it could intervene in FX market.

Norway: Norges bank has increased key rates by 50 bp to 2.25% as expected.

  • With inflation concerns, the bank has increased key rates and has left door open to other adjustments in rates to reach 3% at year end.
  • Growth forecasts have been revised down to -0.3% in 2023 and 0.4% in 2024.

France: Business confidence (Sept.): 102 as expected (prior: 104 revised from 103)

  • Business confidence has decreased further but at slow pace and index was volatile in the previous month.
  • While opinions on past production were positive, views have deteriorated on orders and future production.
  • The index was volatile over the prior months and came below the levels seen in 2019, just before the fall related to covid and lockdown.
  • Separately, confidence has also marginally declined in services, on decreasing outlook, while index remained stable on construction.

UK: The BoE has increased its key rates by 50 bp to 2.25% as expected.

  • The Bank continued to hike by 50 bp its key rates. The vote on rates was split among governors, as 3 members wanted to increase rates by 75 pb and one by 25 bp.
  • The Bank has revised down its peak on inflation from 13% to 11% in coming months after government decisions to cap energy prices. New detailed growth forecasts from the BoE will be set up in Nov., after the presentation of detailed budgetary supports by Friday. The Bank still refer to possible recession next quarters but on less negative pace
  • Door remained open for another 50 or 75 bp in next meeting, given the budgetary policy in place. Sales of assets hold by the BoE will come under process.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 72.4 (prior: 72.2)

  • Consumer confidence has marginally increased over the month.
  • While concerns remained in place on financial situation, views have improved on economic situation and on purchases.
mercoledì 21 settembre
US existing home sales at low levels

US: Existing home sales (Aug.): 4.8M vs 4.7M expected (prior: 4.82M revised from 4.81M)

  • Sales have marginally declined over the month; sales of single-family houses have declined further but at a slower pace compared to past months; sales of condos have rebounded over the month after several months of large decline.
  • Inventories remained stable over the month.
  • Prices of houses sold have declined from the prior month but remained up by 7.7% y/y.


Switzerland: M3 (Aug.): -0.1% y/y (prior: -0.3%)

  • M1 growth has regained at 2.7% y/y after 2.2% the prior month, and M2 growth was also up by 0.3% y/y after 0% the prior month.


Sweden: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6.9% vs 7% expected (prior: 7%)

  • Unemployed stayed stable over the month while labor force has declined over the past two months.


Poland: Retail sales (Aug.): 1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Sales remained sustained but with diverging trend by sector over the month.
  • Spending was strong for clothes, pharma products and household goods while sales of food and autos were depressed.

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Analisi 10.08.2022

China: Politburo drops GDP target and decrees stability in H2 2022

GDP growth bottomed in Q2 and should recover around 5.0% y/y in H2 2022. The July Politburo meeting confirmed this, stressing “stability” and dropping the 5.5% GDP growth target. We maintain our forecast for 2022 unchanged at 3.7%.