Analisi macro giornaliere

US: Empire manufacturing (March): -0.2 vs 3.9 expected (prior: 7.1)

• The business confidence index remains highly volatile on a month-to-month basis.
• Sentiment on current situation has decreased over the month due to a sharp fall in shipments and in prices paid too.
• Other sub-components were on the rise such as new orders, delivery time, unfilled orders and employment, making the situation less severely negative than the global index.
• The 6-month index has slightly decreased (from 34.7 to 31) with all subcomponents on the fall, except capex.
• This index seems to reflect uncertainties and constraints coming from the war on global activity, while pressures from previous tariff hikes on prices seemed to ease.

US: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.8% m/m the prior month; production was driven by equipment goods, up by 0.2% m/m.
• Within sector, auto production and computers were on the rise over the month, as well as the defense sector.

US: Core PCE deflator (Jan): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge still points to sticky prices. In January, core PCE quickened to 3.1% y/y from 3.0%, matching forecasts and ensuring a close look from the FOMC next week.
• Services drove the gain: the "supercore" measure, core services excluding housing, rose 0.4% m/m, up from 0.3%, with healthcare leading the advance.
• The print predates the recent surge in energy costs and could face upside risks in the future.

US: Personal income (Jan): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Consumer demand kept its December rhythm in January, with spending tilting further from goods to services.
• Personal spending held steady at 0.4% m/m, while real spending eked out a modest 0.1% gain.
• Higher energy costs will weigh on real spending, though tax refunds and wage growth should offer some support; even so, a fragile labor market remains a risk to the outlook.

US: GDP (4Q S): 0.7% q/q vs 1.4% expected (prior: 4.4%)

• The BEA now reckons the government shutdown bit harder than first thought. Fourth-quarter growth was revised down to a 0.7% q/q annualized rate from 1.4%.
• Consumer, business and government outlays, as well as exports, were all marked lower. Even so, the underlying demand gauge held up relatively well.

US: Durable goods orders (Jan P): 0.0% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -1.4%)

• Durable-goods orders were flat in January, disappointing expectations. Excluding transportation, a cleaner read on underlying activity, new orders rose 0.4% m/m, down from an upwardly revised 1.3%.
• Core capital-goods orders (nondefense, ex-aircraft) were likewise flat, while core shipments, that feeds into GDP, slipped 0.1% m/m, versus 1.0% previously and well below the 0.4% forecast.
• Even so, momentum remains positive on a year-on-year basis for both core orders and shipments.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Mar P): 55.5 vs 54.8 expected (prior: 56.6)

• The Iran conflict has barely dented American consumer sentiment, at least judging by inflation expectations.
• Though the headline index fell by less than forecast, short‑term inflation expectations held at 3.4%, defying predictions of a rise to 3.7%.
• The current-conditions gauge climbed to a five‑month high (55.5), while the expectations index slipped to its lowest since November (54.1).
• Looking ahead, sentiment could yet buckle under higher fuel prices linked to the Israel–US tensions and a still‑fragile labor market.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Jan): 6946k vs 6750k expected (prior: 6550k revised from 6542k)

• America’s JOLTS data showed a tick-up in job openings. Even so, caution is in order as response rates remain weak, clouding the signal. Layoffs edged down from 1.1% to 1.0%, while the hiring rate held steady.

Eurozone: Industrial production (Jan): -1.5% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -1.4%)

• Eurozone industrial output fell 1.5% m/m in January, wrong-footing expectations of a 0.6% rebound, though December was revised up to -0.6% from -1.4%.
• Germany (-1.3%), Italy (-0.6%) and Spain (-0.5%) all slipped; France rose 0.5%. A 9.8% plunge in Ireland, often volatile due to multinationals, amplified the drag.
• February’s PMI hinted at stabilization, but it predates the latest flare-up involving Iran and higher energy costs. With manufacturers already flagging rising inputs, commodities, transport and wages, next week’s PMI prints will be important to monitor.

UK: GDP (Jan): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Britain entered 2026 with scant momentum, leaving it more exposed as Middle Eastern tensions rise. The services powerhouse stagnated amid a softening labor market; manufacturing edged up 0.1% m/m (vs. 0.2% expected) and construction 0.2%.
• Looking ahead, PMIs point to a firmer underlying pace (about 1.5% q/q annualized), but a sustained energy-price spike would sap growth.

US: Initial jobless claims (Mar 7): 213k vs 215k expected (prior: 214k revised from 213k)

• Applications for unemployment benefits were largely unchanged from the prior week, while continuing claims drifted down to 1850k for the week ending February 28, from a slightly revised 1871k the week prior.
• Claims remain consistent with a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium despite the February decline in payrolls.
• Previous labor indicators, such as lower job-creation plans among small business owners and the February jobs report, show that this equilibrium remains fragile.

US: Trade balance (Jan): -54.5 bn USD vs -66.0 bn expected (prior: -72.9 bn revised from -70.3 bn)

• America’s trade gap narrowed in January as exports jumped 5.5%, led by shipments of non-monetary gold, other precious metals, computers and aircraft. Imports slipped 0.7%, weighed down by a drop in pharmaceuticals.

US: Housing starts (Jan): 1487k vs 1341k expected (prior: 1871k revised from 1404k)

• January housing starts beat expectations despite foul weather, but the details point to softness ahead.
• The gain was driven by multifamily projects, not single-family homes, the segment that matters most for ownership and affordability.
• Permits fell across most regions and for all housing types, and with inventories bloated at single-family builders, residential construction still faces stiff headwinds.

US: CPI (Feb.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inflation was in line with consensus expectations and has shown limited monthly pressures across sectors.
• Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m as expected and as seen the prior month.
• Prices of food were up by 0.4% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month), and energy up by 0.6% m/m after -1.5% m/m prior month); the rises in energy prices were due to fuel oil (11% m/m) and gasoline (+0.8% m/m).
• Good prices were up by 0.1% m/m (0% m/m prior month); just a few sectors have shown monthly rises probably due to tariffs (appliances, apparels), but balanced by flat prices of new cars and another decline in used cars (-0.4% m/m).
• Services were up by 0.3% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month); shelter costs remained moderate (0.2% m/m as seen prior month); prices were up for hospitals and airfares but balanced by moderate rises or some decline in other sectors.
• Yearly trend remained unchanged from the prior month for both headline inflation (2.4% y/y) and core inflation (2.5% y/y).

Germany: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Final data have confirmed a monthly rebound in prices; this move was driven by higher prices of clothes (1.6% m/m), rising oil-petrol prices (1.1% m/m) and firmer prices for communication and leisure goods; on the opposite, household equipment prices were down over the month.
• Yearly trend came marginally lower, from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.0% y/y.

Spain: Retail sales (real) (Jan.): 4% y/y (prior: 2.8% revised from 2.9%)

• Real sales were up by 0.1% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month.
• Monthly picture was mixed as sales were stronger for food, personal goods and online sales, while they declined for household goods and health sectors.