Analisi del mercato

Eurozone: Economic confidence (Jan.): 99.9 vs 97.0 expected (prior: 97.1 revised from 95.8)

• Industrial confidence: 1.3 vs -0.9 expected (prior: -0.6 revised from -1.5)
• Services confidence: 10.7 vs 8.5 (prior: 7.7 revised from 6.3)
• Eurozone economic confidence rose for a third consecutive month to reach its highest level since June amid easing recession fears.
• Business sentiment rose in all sectors except construction

Germany: GDP (Q4 Prel.): -0.2% q/q vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.4%)

• GDP y/y: 1.1% vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.4%)
• GDP unexpectedly contracted in Q4 (vs a prior guidance from the German statistics for a flat outcome).
• No details were given except a comment that consumer spending declined.
• In terms of level, GDP is now slightly above the pre-pandemic level in Q4 2019, but therefore still far below the pre-pandemic path.
• Note that, despite the decline in real terms, the increase in nominal terms was still strong in Q4: up 8.8% q/q saar.

Spain: CPI (Jan. Prel.): -0.5% m/m vs -1.9% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• CPI y/y: 5.8% vs 4.8% expected (prior: 5.5%)
• Unexpected increase on a y/y basis, including for core CPI which rose to 7.5% y/y from 7% in December.
• The reacceleration was driven by a rebound in fuel costs but the rise in core CPI shows that prices pressures are still broad-based.

Switzerland: KOF (Jan.): 97.2 vs 93.4 expected (prior: 91.5 revised from 92.2)

• This barometer of the Swiss economy increased for the second consecutive month to reach its highest level since last June.

US: Personal income (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Wages and disposable income stayed on a stable trend, being up by 0.3% m/m.
• Real disposable income was up by 0.2% m/m as in the prior month.

US: Personal spending (Dec.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

• Purchases of goods were down by 1.5% m/m after -1.3% m/m the prior month (only purchases made past Oct. were positive for goods). Services were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Saving ratio has increased from 2.9% the prior month to 3.4%.

US: Core PCE (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• While PCE was up by 0.1% (vs 0% expected) monthly change in core PCE was in line with expectations.
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.7% y/y the prior month to 4.4% y/y.

US: Pending home sales (Dec.): 2.5% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: -2.6% revised from -4%)

• Sales have rebounded, after several months of decline, but they have diverged across regions; on 4 main regions, 2 regions have shown large rebound in sales, 1 region sharply down and 1 region modestly down.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Jan.): 64.9 vs 64.6 expected (prior: 59.7)

• Final consumer confidence has increased more than in the first estimates from the prior month.
• Details offered constructive views and signs of some stabilization on the global situation.
• Sentiment has increased on personal finances and on income views have improved from the prior month on current and future economic situation and a stable labor is expected.
• Willingness to buy cars, houses and large items have regained from the prior month.
• Inflation expectations have eased, even more than in first estimates, at 12 months from 4.4% to 3.9% y/y and they stayed stable at 5-10y at 2.9%.

France: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 80 vs 83 expected (prior: 81 revised from 82)

• Confidence has weakened over the past two months.
• Opinions have decreased over the past two months on past and future personal, economic conditions, prices and unemployment. Recent strikes and debate about pension reform have added uncertainties to current cycle.
• The index was back toits low level after some improvement over the Sept.-Nov. period.

Spain: GDP (Q3-22): 0.2% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Growth was resilient in Q4 thanks to a strong positive contribution of net trade due to larger fall of imports than exports; domestic demand was deeply negative over the quarter, with large fall in private consumption and capex.
• Contrary to Q3, domestic demand has sharply reversed while net trade contribution turned positive.

Eurozone: M3 (Dec.): 4.1% y/y vs 4.6% expected (prior: 4.8%)

• Pace of monetary aggregates growth has slowed down further; M1 was up by 0.6% y/y after 2.4% y/y the prior month and M2, up by 3.7% after 4.6% y/y.
• Credit to the private sector has also slowed down from 5.1% y/y the prior month to 4.2% y/y.

Sweden: Retail sales (Dec.): -1.8% m/m (prior: 1.5% revised from 2.2%)

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 7.5% vs 7.3% expected (prior: 7.2%)

• Unemployed has increased over the period.

Norway: Retail sales (Dec.): -3.6% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.9%)

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan.21): 186k vs 205k expected (prior: 192k revised from 190k)

• Continuing claims: 1675 k after 1653 k the prior week.

US: GDP (Q4-22): 2.9% q/q vs 2.6% expected (prior: 3.2%)

• GDP growth was stronger than expected thanks to resilient consumption and strong positive contribution from inventories and net trade.
• Consumption was up by 2.1% q/q after 2.3% in Q3; purchases of goods remained positive (despite weak retail sales after a rebound in Oct.) up by 1.1%q/q, and services were strong (2.6% q/q after 3.7% q/q in Q3).
• Investment was mixed with large divergence across sectors; capex was down by 3.7% q/q after 10.6% in Q3; structures were slightly positive (0.4% q/q after -3.6%) and R&D stayed firm (5.3% q/q after 6.8%).
• Residential investment was sharply down: -26.7% q/q after -27.1% q/q.
• Net trade contribution was positive (0.65 pp) to Q3 thanks to a larger fall in imports (4.6% q/q) than in exports (-1.3% q/q).
• Inventories have strongly rebounded and have added 1.46 pp to Q3 GDP; public consumption was still solid, up by 3.7% q/q, adding 0.64 pp to GDP.
• Strength in consumption could comfort the Fed in hiking rates further; but underlying final sales and private final sales have weakened further in Q3, showing total domestic demand has entered a slowdown despite large total GDP data.
• A slowdown from Q4 is expected in Q1-23, and domestic demand should remain weak and even in a modest contraction.

US: Wholesale inventories (Dec.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)

• Inventories of durable goods were up by 1.2% m/m.

US: Durable goods orders (Dec.): 5.6% m/m vs 2.5% expected (prior: -1.7% revised from -2.1%)

• Orders have been boosted by orders for aircraft (Boeing).
• Orders for capital good non-defense and ex aircraft were down by 0.2% m/m after 0% the prior month; for these orders, shipments were down by 0.4% (-0.2% m/m the prior month) and inventories were up by 0.8% m/m (0.4% m/m).

US: New home sales (Dec.): 616k vs 612k expected (prior: 602k revised from 640k)

• Sales have increased but prior month data were revised lower.
• Sales have increased in two districts but declined in two other sectors. Inventories remained stable over the month and median prices have declined from the prior month (-3.7% m/m) but were still up by 7.8% y/y.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 56.3 (prior: 55.4 revised from 54.1)

• Consumer confidence has improved from the prior month.
• Opinions on financial situation and economic outlook have improved after deterioration on recent/past situation.
• Unemployment is seen as global worry.
• Less depressed opinions on future purchases.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Jan.): 99.5 (prior: 103.7 revised from 104.1)

• Confidence has weakened further, and past month data were revised lower.
• Confidence has decreased in manufacturing and construction sectors over the month.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 100.9 vs 102.5 expected (prior: 102.5)

• Sentiment has declined on personal financial situation and current economic conditions. Views on future economic situation have improved a bit.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Jan.): 102.7 vs 101.8 expected (prior: 101.5 revised from 101.4)

• Views were less negative on orders (both domestic and foreign) and have regained on production and economic outlook.
• Opinions on employment have on contrary decreased over the month.

Spain: Unemployment rate (Q4-22): 12.87% vs 12.4% expected (prior: 12.67%)

• Unemployed has increased over the period and in parallel the labor force has decreased.

Brazil: Current account (Dec.): -10878 M$ vs -6350 M$ expected (prior: -625 M$ revised from -30 M$)

• Current account deficit has increased over the month, while foreign direct investment has decreased but remains larger than the current account deficit.

Germany: IFO (Jan.): 90.2 vs 90.3 expected (prior: 88.6)

• Business sentiment has rebounded from the prior month, mainly thanks to a rebound in expectations (from 83.2 the prior month to 86.4), while opinions on current situation has eroded (from 94.4 to 94.1). Despite its monthly rebound, the IFO expectations index remained in depressed camp.
• By sector, the sentiment was less negative in manufacturing and trade (a rebound in expectations) from the prior month and has turned slightly positive in services.
• Flash German PMIs have shown a rebound in services, while manufacturing index remained weak; the IFO pointed towards improving future conditions but still worries in the short run.

UK: PPI Input prices (Dec.): -1.1% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices have declined for materials for the second month, while fuel prices were up.
• Yearly trend has declined from 18% y/y the prior month to 16.5% y/y.

UK: PPI Output prices (Dec.): -0.8% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Oil prices have continued to fall over the month, but food prices stayed on the rise.
• Yearly trend has declined from 16.2% y/y the prior month to 14.7% y/y.

Spain: PPI (Dec.): -1.7% m/m (prior: -2.4% revised from -2.2%)

• Still a large fall in prices due to energy (-4.8% m/m) and prices in intermediary sector, while food prices remained sustained (1% m/m).
• Yearly trend has declined from 20.5% y/y the prior month to 14.7% y/y.

Poland: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 5.2% as expected (prior: 5.1%)

• After regular decline past months, unemployed has increased over the past two months, and the unemployment ratio has marginally increased over the month.

Brazil: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 85.8 (prior: 88)

• Consumer confidence has declined over the month, being in a range since past Aug.

Turkey: Industrial confidence (Jan.): 103.4 (prior: 101.6)

• Business sentiment has improved further over the month; opinions have regained on orders, exports, global business and also on inventories. Output was stable, while employment has decreased.