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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

martedì 17 maggio
US: strong retail sales and industrial production, while weakening confidence in housing

US: Retail sales (Apr.): 0.9% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 0.5%)

  • Sales were close to expectations and still sustained; core sales (sales ex autos, building materials, energy and food) were up by 1% m/m and prior month data were strongly revised up, from -0.1% m/m to 1.1% m/m.
  • By sector, sales were strongly up for autos, electronics and clothes while they have declined for building materials, food and gasoline station.
  • Despite surging inflation, consumption still looks resilient probably thanks to savings and positive trend in labor; nevertheless, confidence eased and downside risks could develop when the Fed will accelerate its tightening in June-July.


US: Industrial production (Apr.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • Industrial activity was better oriented over the month; production in utilities and in manufacturing was up; within manufacturing (up by 0.8% m/m), activity was driven by autos and machinery sectors. Capacity utilization has increased from 78.2% to 79%.


US: Business inventories (March): 2% m/m vs 1.9% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 1.5%)

  • Inventories were on the rise in all sectors, while total sales were also on the rise (1.8% m/m after 1.2% m/m prior month).
  • Inventory-to-sales ratio was stable at 1.27.


US: NAHB housing market index (May): 69 vs 75 expected (prior: 77)

  • Sentiment has significantly declined over the month; all components (sales and future demand) were seen lower by professionals.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (March): 3.7% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8%)

  • Claimant count rate: 4.1% after 4.2% the prior month; jobless claims: -56.9 k after -81.6 k prior month; employment (3-month average): 83 k after 10 k prior month.
  • Labor remained on a sustained trend. Vacancies remained at a high level, pointing towards further progress despite uncertainties on the outlook.


Eurozone: GDP (Q1-22): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Estimates for Q1-22 GDP have been slightly revised up.


France: Unemployment rate (Q1-22): 7.3% vs 7.4% expected (prior: 7.4%)

  • Total unemployment rate has continued to decline over the month.


Poland: GDP (Q1-22): 2.4% q/q vs 1.8% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 1.7%)

  • Activity was firmer than expected in estimates.
lunedì 16 maggio
Falling business sentiment in manufacturing in New York

US: NY Empire manufacturing (May): -11.6 vs 15 expected (prior: 24.6)

  • Sentiment has decreased more than expected from prior month; on current situation, sentiment has declined on new orders, shipments inventories and prices, but slightly increased for employment.
  • The 6-month view has slightly regained from very low level seen the prior month; views were less depressed on new orders and shipments but decreased on employment and future capex.
  • This study is traditionally highly volatile but pointed this month on renewed weakness in regional activity.


Turkey: Current account (March): -5.5bn USD vs -5.7bn expected (prior: -5.44bn revised from -5.15bn)

  • Trade deficit has increased over the month; current account deficit has increased and foreign reserves have declined further (USD -4.5 bn after USD -2.2 bn the prior month).
giovedì 12 maggio
US monthly PPI in line with expectations, but still upside pressures from many sectors

US: Initial jobless claims (May 7): 203k vs 193k expected (prior: 202k revised from 200k)

  • Continuing claims: 1343k after 1387 k the prior week.


US: PPI (Apr.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.6% revised from 1.4%)

  • Monthly data were in line with expectations, but prior month data were significantly revised up.
  • While headline data delivered some comfort for markets, details offered a more contrasted picture across sectors: prices were flat on services over the month thanks to a decline in trade costs; but prices for food, energy and warehousing costs have shown still sustained monthly rise.
  • Yearly trend has eased from 11.5% y/y the prior month to 11%, and from 9.2% y/y to 8.8% y/y for core PPIs.
  • Components of CPI and PPI revealed that upside risks remain in place for next month data as several sectors still contribute to the rise besides energy. This reinforces the view that inflation trend should evolve on a plateau on average next months, with some volatility in both sides; a regular declining trend should come later, and markets should be patient, as well as central banks to hike further in all countries except Japan and China.


UK: GDP (Q1-22): 0.8% q/q vs 1% expected (prior: 1.3%)

  • Growth was positive but slower than expected; by sector, consumption was up by 0.6% q/q (thanks to services, leisure), while private capex was down by 0.5% q/q and public spending also down by 1.7% q/q; net trade contribution was sharply negative, as exports have contracted while imports increased. Public investment was strongly up, adding support to private demand and balancing contraction in other sectors.


UK: Industrial production (March): -0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.6%)

  • Manufacturing production was down by 0.2% m/m after -0.6% m/m the prior month; only investment and durable goods production was up over the month; on the opposite, activity was sustained in mining and oil sectors.
  • Separately, monthly proxy for GDP has contracted by 0.1% m/m after being flat in Feb.; the negative contribution was coming from the correction in wholesale and retail sectors.
  • UK economy should face headwinds in Q2 with constraints on growth and still accelerating inflation, while BoE is obliged to continue to hike rates.


UK: RICS house price balance (Apr.): 80% vs 70% expected (prior: 74%)

  • Balance of opinions remained positive on prices outlook; indicators of future demand remained positive.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Apr.): 1.3% m/m (prior: 0.8%)

  • Imported prices have strongly accelerated over the month, up by 2% m/m after 1.4% m/m the prior month; producer prices were up by 1% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.
  • Imported prices were up by 11.3% y/y and producer prices up by 4.5% y/y.


Sweden: Unemployment rate (Apr.): 3.1% (prior: 3.2%)

  • The unemployment ratio remained on a regular declining trend.


Sweden: CPI (Apr.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.7%)

  • Inflation remained sustained, but monthly pace has moderated from the prior month.
  • Many sectors have contributed to the rise in prices: food, clothes, household goods, health and leisure sectors.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 6.1% y/y the prior month to 6.4% y/y and from 4.1% to 4.5% y/y for core inflation.
mercoledì 11 maggio
Inflation: still upside risks in the US and Germany

US: CPI (Apr.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Inflation was higher than expected; only two sectors have shown a decline in prices over the month: gasoline and old cars, while other sectors remained on sustained monthly rises. Hence core inflation was well above expectations, up by 0.6% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
  • Monthly rises were seen for food, new cars, housing and medical costs services and airline fares.
  • Yearly trend has slightly eased from 8.5% y/y prior month to 8.3% y/y on headline inflation, and from 6.5% to 6.2% y/y for core inflation.
  • As energy prices remain volatile and other prices could maintain upside risks, inflation is expected to stay at least on a plateau around 8.5% y/y, with a potential large range of risks in the next months (8.1-9%y/y), before seeing a real decline in inflation trend, probably post Sept. data in our scenario.


Germany: CPI (Apr.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 2.5%)

  • Inflation pace has moderated over the month as energy prices have reduced over the period, but other prices remained on sustained trend.
  • While prices of energy, transport and health have declined over the month, prices have increased strongly for food, clothes, household goods and in leisure.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated further from 7.6% y/y prior month to 7.8% y/y.


Brazil: CPI (Apr.): 1.06% m/m vs 1.01% expected (prior: 1.62%)

  • Inflation (IPCA index) remained sustained over the month; while housing prices have declined, food, household goods, transport and health costs remained on strong rise.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 11.3% y/y the prior month to 12.13% y/y.
martedì 10 maggio
Stable sentiment in US small firms; some rebound in German ZEW expectations

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Apr.): 93.2 vs 92.9 expected (prior: 93.2)

  • Sentiment among small firms was stable, but concerns remained in place on future economic situation and jobs.
  • Uncertainties have increased again, while views have decreased on future sales, net compensation and also on selling prices.
  • The index has stabilized at relative low levels, compared to the past two years (except during pandemic) and to the 2018-2019 period.


UK: BRC retail sales (Apr.): -1.7% y/y (prior: -0.4%)

  • Proxy for sales has pointed towards further decline in consumption.


Germany: Zew (May): -36.5 vs -35 expected (prior: -30.8)

  • Sentiment among financial community has decreased further on current situation, but expectations related to Germany have regained (from -41 to -34.3) against consensus. The expectations index remained at depressed level.


Italy: Industrial production (March): 0% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: 4%)

  • After strong rebound the prior month, production stayed stable; by sector, the picture was mixed as activity has declined for intermediary sector, but increased for energy, consumer goods and equipment.
  • Data have turned highly volatile from sectors to total production over the past months.


Norway: CPI (Apr.): 1.6% m/m (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inflation remained sustained over the month and core inflation was up by 0.9% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
  • Except alcohol, health and communication, all sectors have shown still strong momentum in prices over the month.
  • Yearly trend has increased further from 4.5% y/y prior month to 5.4% and from 2.1% to 2.6% y/y for core inflation.


Brazil: Retail sales (March): 0.7% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 2.1% revised from 2%)

  • Sales were firmer for cars, communication and household goods but decreased on food, and were flat for clothes and furniture.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (March): 11.5% vs 10.7% expected (prior: 11.1%)


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