Analisi macro giornaliere
giovedì, agosto 21
PMI manufacturing on the rise in the US and eurozone but weaker in UK
US: Initial jobless claims (Aug.16): 235k vs 225k expected (prior: 224k)
- Continuing claims: 1972 k after 1942 k the prior week.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (Aug.): -0.3 vs 6.5 expected (prior: 15.9)
- A negative surprise in falling regional business confidence; opinions on current views have sharpy declined while the 6-month index has rebounded (index at 25 after 21.5 the prior month).
- On current situation, views have declined for new orders, shipments and employment while prices were on a strong rise.
- The 6-month views have regained on expected rebound in new orders and employment.
US: Existing home sales (July): 4.01M vs 3.92M expected (prior: 3.93M)
- Over the month, sales of single family and multi-family houses have both rebounded by 2% m/m.
- Yearly prices were up by 0.2% y/y; prices for single family houses were up by 0.3% y/y while prices of multi-family houses were down by 1.2% y/y.
US: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 53.3 vs 49.7 expected (prior: 49.8)
- Flash estimates have pointed to a large rebound in business sentiment; the rebound was broad-based across sub-components: production, new orders, inventories and employment.
- Prices have also sharply regained with the passthrough of tariffs.
US: Services PMI (Aug.): 55.4 vs 54.2 expected (prior: 55.7)
- Sentiment on services has just marginally decreased from the prior month and the index remained high.
- Firms were cautious on current activity, but positive on employment.
- Prices have shown a sharp rise due to passthrough of tariffs to clients.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 50.5 vs 49.5 expected (prior: 49.8)
- Flash estimates have shown that business sentiment has regained after the trade deal with the US, but firms remained cautious.
- Opinions have increased on production and new orders (index at 50.7) for eurozone and also for both France (index back to 49.9) and Germany (index at 49.9).
- Nevertheless, constraints remained as new export orders have decreased, employment was lower than the prior month, inventories on reduction and costs-prices remained on a moderate rise.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Aug.): 50.7 vs 50.8 expected (prior: 51)
- Flash estimate has pointed to slightly lower confidence in services, but the index remained above the 50 mark and slightly higher than in manufacturing.
- New orders have regained over the month (index at 50.6) but total index and new orders have both decreased over the month for Germany and France, suggesting the support remained in place in peripheral countries.
- Employment remained globally positive and prices also on the rise.
- Composite PMI (51.1 after 50.9) was better oriented thanks to improving manufacturing and resilient services; but details offered a mixed picture with still various sources of fragilities.
Poland: Industrial production (July): 0.2% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.1%)
- Activity was boosted by the mining and electricity-gas sectors, while manufacturing production has contracted further (-0.2% m/m after -1.1% m/m prior month).
Switzerland: M3 (July): 4.7% y/y (prior: 4.3%)
- Monetary aggregates continue to regain and time deposits to decline in favor of time savings.
- M1 was up by 21.1% y/y after 17.8% y/y prior month and M2 up by 16.4% y/y after 14.8% y/y.
Switzerland: Trade balance (July): 4.59 Bn CHF (prior: 5.73Bn)
- Real exports: -2.7% m/m after 7.3% m/m prior month; real imports: -0.3% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month.
- Exports of gold and watches have accelerated just before the rise in US tariffs; ongoing negotiations between US, pharma companies and Swiss government.
Norway: GDP Mainland (Q2-25): 0.6% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1%)
- Activity was supported by a still sustained consumption and by a rebound in public spending and in investment over the quarter.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 47.3 vs 48.3 expected (prior: 48)
- Business confidence has eroded in manufacturing over the month; opinions have decreased on production and new orders.
UK: Services PMI (Aug.): 53.6 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.8)
- Flash estimates have pointed to higher confidence in services; opinions have improved on current activity and on employment.
- Prices were also on a sharp rise.
mercoledì, agosto 20
UK inflation coming closer to 4% y/y in July
Eurozone: CPI (July): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Flat monthly inflation was confirmed in final data; energy prices were up by 1% m/m (-2.4% y/y) and food up by 0.2% m/m (up by 3.3% y/y), while good prices were down by 2.4% m/m thanks to discount.
- Services were up by 1.1% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and up by 3.2% y/y.
- Yearly trend remained stable for both headline inflation at 2.0% and core inflation at 2.3% y/y. While trend in energy remained negative and was large contributor to disinflation, services were resilient due to seasonal demand and rebound in prices. Nothing in data which should push the ECB to ease further next month.
Germany: PPI (July): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Prices were down for consumer goods (-0.1% m/m after 0.3 % m/m prior month) and basic goods (-0.3% m/m after -0.2% m/m); on the opposite, energy prices were up by 0.1% m/m and prices of capital goods up by 0.1% m/m.
- Yearly trend has declined from -1.3% y/y prior month to -1.5% y/y.
UK: CPI (July): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Monthly inflation change was contained but rises in services were stronger and lead to higher yearly trend.
- Prices of goods have declined over the month (-0.7% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month) due to falling prices in clothes, housing and health sectors; energy prices were down by 2% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month.
- Services were up by a strong 0.7% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month due to strong rises in travel-transport and recreation sectors; services were up by 5% y/y after 4.7% y/y prior month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.8% y/y after 3.6% y/y prior month and from 3.7% to 3.8% y/y on core inflation. These inflation data reduce the possibility for the BoE to ease further.
martedì, agosto 19
US Housing starts on rebound in July
US: Housing starts (July): 1428k vs 1297k expected (prior: 1358k revised from 1321k)
- A large rebound in monthly data driven by both multifamily houses and to a lesser extend also single-family houses.
- Data were highly volatile and evolved in a very large range of 1285 k/1500k over the past two years.
- Building permits have decreased from 1393 k the prior month to 1354 k, due to a decrease in multifamily houses.
- Trend in housing looks negative and it should require another round of Fed easing and new constructions to recover on a positive trend.
lunedì, agosto 18
US: decreasing business sentiment in housing
US: NAHB housing market index (Aug.): 32 vs 34 expected (prior: 33)
- Confidence in the housing sector has decreased from the prior month.
- Opinions on current sales have decreased but sentiment on future sales remained stable over the month.
- Activity and sentiment in housing have deteriorated over past quarters, reflecting high cost and prices, high interest rates and low constructions too.
venerdì, agosto 15
US: sustained retail sales but falling consumer confidence
US: NY Empire manufacturing (Aug.): 11.9 vs 0 expected (prior: 5.5)
- Sentiment on current situation has improved, thanks to higher new orders and shipments, but lower employment and marginally prices paid.
- The 6-month index came lower (from 24.1 prior month to 16) due to lower new orders, shipments and employment; prices paid have increased further.
- This index remains highly volatile over the prior months, pointing towards volatile industrial activity in this region and also further inflation pressures.
US: Retail sales (July): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.5%)
- Sales were sustained and prior month data were revised higher.
- Sales were strong for autos, furniture, gasoline and sport goods; on the opposite, they decreased for electronics and building materials.
- Sales ex autos, food, building materials and energy were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.8% m/m.
- Domestic demand is expected to trend lower in H2-25 after sustained growth in Q2.
US: Industrial production (July): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)
- Production was down in autos, machinery and utility sectors. Production of business equipment was up by 0.5% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
- Activity in manufacturing remained volatile every month and its trend looks quite moderate up by 1.4% y/y.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug.): 58.6 vs 62 expected (prior: 61.7)
- Flash consumer sentiment has significantly decreased, with falling both expectations and opinions on current situation.
- Opinions have deteriorated on financial situation, lower income, deteriorating purchasing power, falling business expectations and rising future unemployment.
- Willingness to buy autos, houses and major appliances have decreased from the prior month.
- Inflation expectations have increased: from 4.5% to 4.9% at 12M, and from 3.4% to 3.9% for 5-10y inflation.
- Deteriorating confidence points to more constraints on the consumer sector and resulting a slower trend in consumption in H2.
US: Business inventories (June): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)
- Inventories have increased, notably for autos and also building materials over the month.
Switzerland: GDP (Q2-25): 0.1% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.8%)
- According to preliminary data, growth has slowed down in Q2-25 after front-loading activity in Q1; no detail available in first estimate.