Analisi macro giornaliere

US: ADP Employment change (July): 104k vs 76k expected (prior: -23k revised from -33k)

• Employment has recovered according to the survey; data were back positive for small, medium firms and increased for large firms.
• Employment has rebounded in services: from -66 k the prior month to 74 k this month.

 

US: GDP (Q2-25): 3% q/q vs 2.6% expected (prior: -0.5%)

• Large swings inventories and net trade were seen in Q1 and Q2, while trend in private domestic demand has slowed down from 1.9% in Q1 to 1.2% in Q2 in line with our underlying soft-landing scenario.
• By sector, consumption remained resilient, up by 1.4%q (0.5% in Q1), thanks to a rebound in goods (2.2%) and regular growth in services (1.1%).
• Investment was again contrasted across sectors: falling structure (-10.3%q after -2.4% in Q1), slowdown in equipment (4.8% after 23.7%), but firmer R&D (6.4% after 6%). Residential has continued to contract (-4.6%q after -1.3%q in Q1).
• Export and imports have both contracted in Q2; imports have reverted: +37.9%q in Q1 and -30.3% in Q2, reflecting front loading imports ahead of rising in tariffs. Net trade contribution was positive, adding 4.99 pp to Q2 after -4.61 pp in Q1.
• Inventories have declined in Q2 after a huge rebound in Q1; their net contribution to GDP was negative (-3.17 pp) after the positive 2.67 pp seen in Q1.

 

US: Pending home sales (June): -0.8% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.8%)

• Home sales have decreased in all districts (4), except one (Northeast district) up by 2.1% m/m for the second month.

 

France: Consumer spending (June): 0.6% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Sales were better than expected over the month due to a strong rebound in auto sales and firmer energy consumption.
• On the opposite food sales were negative over the month.
• Sales were strong in April and June but came depressed the other past months whit a high sector rotation and a high turnover for auto sales.

 

France: GDP (Q2-25): 0.3% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• GDP growth has accelerated in Q2, but this was mainly due to inventories.
• Consumption was up by 0.1% q after -0.3%q in Q1; purchases were firmer for food (Easter impact) and services (transport, hotels).
• Investment was down by 0.3% q (-0.1% in Q1); firms equipment purchase was strong (0.6%q), but construction, public investment and IT spending were in contraction in Q2.
• Net trade contribution was negative (-0.2 pp) due to strong imports (0.8%; due to refined oil and transport) while exports were modestly positive (0.2%q).
• Inventories contribution was strong: 0.5 pp in Q2 after 0.7pp in Q1; the rise in inventories was mainly driven by the transport sector (auto and aircraft).
• GDP growth was sustained in Q2, but domestic demand was flat, pointing to underlying weakness in growth trend.

 

Germany: Retail sales (June): 1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -1.6%)

• Sales have strongly rebounded over the month, and prior month data were revised up.
• All sectors were higher over the month, notably internet sales, and offered a reversal after prior month fall.

 

Germany: GDP (Q2-25): -0.1% q/q as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Preliminary GDP has contracted as expected; no detail by sector was available but investment has contracted while public and private consumption was positive.
• With a trade deal with the US and more fiscal spending to come, a more constructive pattern for growth is expected in H2-25 and in 2026.

 

Italy: GDP (Q2-25): -0.1% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary GDP has shown a reversal in growth due to net trade; net trade contribution turned negative in Q2 while it was a support in Q1. No detail on other sector was available but domestic demand, including inventories, was estimated to be positive on the quarter.

 

Spain: CPI (July): -0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a higher inflation yearly trend, up from 2.3% y/y prior month to 2.7% y/y. it seemed energy prices and end of subsidy to the transport sector were responsible for firmer inflation.

 

Eurozone: GDP (Q2-25): 0.1% q/q vs 0% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Growth has slowed down in Q2, but it remained on positive territory; the large advance in Q1 was fuelled by production, exports and inventories ahead of the rise in US tariffs; Q2 data resulted from some payback, notably from the export sector, while domestic demand was just slightly positive. Disparities across countries remain large.
• Growth remains fragile, but thanks to the base of a trade deal and more fiscal support, the picture should look more constructive next quarters, leading to a 2025 growth close to 1%.

 

Eurozone: Business climate (July): -10.4 vs -11 expected (prior: -11.8 revised from -12)

• Business confidence has improved from the prior month; opinions on future production have rebounded while sentiment was less negative on new orders and exports.
• Selling prices were on the rise over the month.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (July): -14.7 as expected (prior: -15.3)

• Consumer sentiment has improved from the prior month; opinions were less negative on past economic and financial situation, while they remain cautious for future situation.
• Inflation remained a concern as well as unemployment and preference for saving remained high.

 

Eurozone: Services confidence (July): 4.1 vs 3.2 expected (prior: 3.1 revised from 2.9)

• Sentiment has regained on services, driven by more positive views on present and future demand, and employment.
• Selling prices are also seen on the rise over the month.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (June): 2.5% m/m (prior: -4.6% revised from -4.8%)

Sweden: Consumer confidence (July): 90.7 (prior: 84.9 revised from 84.6)

• A large monthly rebound in confidence.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (July): 96.3 (prior: 98.7 revised from 99.3)

 

Switzerland: KOF (July): 101.1 vs 97.9 expected (prior: 96.3 revised from 96.1)

• Business sentiment has recovered over the month and the index was back to levels seen in Q1-25. The improvement was seen in several industrial sectors, notably manufacturing and leisure.

US: Wholesale inventories (June): 0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Inventories have rebuilt, driven by the retail sector; retailers have seen an increase by 0.3% m/m of inventories (0.3% m/m the prior month) led by autos (0.9% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month).

 

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (May): 2.79% y/y vs 2.91% expected (prior: 3.44% revised from 3.42%)

• Prices were down by 0.34% m/m as seen the prior month.
• Over 20 cities, only 4 cities offered a still positive annual rise in prices, in a range of 1% to 8%y/y; other cities have shown prices down in a -13%/-0.1% y/y range.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (June): 7437k vs 7500k expected (prior: 7712k revised from 7769k)

• Labor continued to deliver signals of a gradual slowdown, but with still large volatility among sectors over the past months.
• Jobs openings have slowed down from the prior month but remained above the March level. Demand from firms has increased for retail trade and business services, while it decreased over the month on education-health and leisure-hospitality.
• Hirings have slowed down from prior month and pointed to lower levels than seen in Feb.; while hirings increased for retail trade, they declined from business services and leisure-hospitality.
• Separations and quitters came also lower than the prior month, pointing to less desire and flexibility to change of job in current environment.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (July): 97.2 vs 96 expected (prior: 95.2 revised from 93)

• Consumer confidence was better than expected and prior month index has been significantly revised up.
• Sentiment on current situation has eased from the prior month, while expectations have rebounded.
• On current situation, opinions have decreased on labor conditions; future business conditions have improved from the prior month.
• Willingness to buy new autos, houses and major appliances have decreased from the prior month.
• Inflation expectations (12M- average) have marginally decreased from 5.9% to 5.8%.
• Inflation and employment remained the main two sources of concerns for consumers but global confidence has improved.

 

Spain: Retail sales (real) (June): 6.2% y/y (prior: 5% revised from 4.8%)

• Sales were strongly up in June, up by 1.1% m/m; all sectors were on the rise except internet sales over the month. Household goods sales were up by 1.5% m/m.

 

Spain: GDP (Q2-25): 0.7% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• In preliminary data, growth was firmer than expected and confirmed the strong performance of Spain among the EU.
• Growth was driven by consumption, investment and construction over the quarter; public spending and net trade were a drag over the quarter.

 

Norway: Retail sales (June): 0% m/m (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

• Sales were flat over the month after modest upward revisions to prior month sales. Sales of household goods and pharma products have slowed down over the month.

 

Sweden: GDP (Q2-25): 0.1% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0%)

• Preliminary data pointed to slower growth than expected in Q2.

 

UK: M4 (June): 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.5%)

• Mortgage approvals have increased from 63.3 k prior month to 64.2 k.
• Credit to consumers and mortgages have rebounded over the month.
• M4 lending was up by 2.9% y/y after 2.6% y/y prior month.

US: Durable goods orders (Jun P): -9.3% m/m vs -10.7% expected (prior: 16.5% revised from 16.4%)

• June's durable goods print signals soft momentum extending into the third quarter. Headline orders fell sharply after Boeing reported a slowdown in June, while orders ex-transportation decelerated from 0.5% to 0.2%.
• Core capital goods shipments, an input for the GDP calculation, increased 0.4% (vs. 0.5% prior). However, core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment excluding aircraft and military hardware, unexpectedly dropped by 0.7% after an upwardly revised 2% gain in May, suggesting lower shipments ahead.
• This report suggests that companies remained cautious about long-term investment planning due to trade and government policy uncertainty.

 

Germany: IFO (Jul): 88.6 vs 89.0 expected (prior: 88.4)

• German IFO slightly disappointed but edged higher compared to the previous month. The rise in business climate reflected an improvement of 0.3pt in current conditions to 86.5 and a 0.1pt increase in expectations to 90.7.
• Sector-wise, manufacturing and construction led the uptick, while trade and other services edged lower.
• Expectations in the construction sector have surged, likely translating optimism around Germany's fiscal shift.

 

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Jul): -19 vs -20 expected (prior: -18)

• The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for the UK edged down, slipping from a six-month high as households grew increasingly cautious amid rising concerns over taxes and inflation.
• There are growing speculations over possible tax hikes in the upcoming Autumn Budget and fears of renewed inflationary pressure.

 

UK: Retail sales (Jun): 0.9% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: -2.8% revised from -2.7%)

• Retail sales recovered from May's sharp decline but still underperformed in June, leading to a tepid 0.2% growth for the second quarter. Paired with subdued consumer confidence and cautious household spending, the figures signal an economic slowdown during this period.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jul 19): 217k vs 226k expected (prior: 221k)

• Applications for US unemployment benefits fell for the sixth straight week, underscoring the labor market's resilience. However, continuing claims remained unchanged at 1.96 million, a stubbornly high figure that could signal upward pressure on the unemployment rate.
• The July jobs report, due next week, is anticipated to show a slight rise in unemployment to 4.2%, reflecting challenges faced by many workers in finding new employment opportunities.

 

US: Services PMI (Jul P): 55.2 vs 53.0 expected (prior: 52.9)

• US business activity grew at a sharply increased rate in July, according to early flash PMI data, marking a strong start to the third quarter.
• Firms saw a steady rise in new business, even as demand from foreign customers declined. However, input costs surged at an accelerated rate, pushing output prices to their highest increase since April 2023.
• At the same time, robust domestic demand caused backlogs to climb to their highest level in three years. This growing pressure on capacity prompted firms to ramp up hiring at the fastest pace since January.
• The composite PMI surged to 54.6, surpassing expectations of 52.9, driven by robust growth in the services sector, which more than compensated for a contraction in manufacturing.

 

US: Manufacturing PMI (Jul P): 49.5 vs 52 expected (prior: 52.9)

• Flash data reveals that Manufacturing PMI slipped below the critical 50 mark in July, signaling contraction. Factory production growth slowed as new orders declined for the first time this year. Employment and purchase inventories also fell, marking their first declines since April.

 

US: New home sales (Jun): 627k vs 650k expected (prior: 623k)

• The data reveal sustained pressure on the housing market, with elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty prompting many potential buyers to postpone their purchasing plans.

 

Eurozone: Services PMI (Jul P): 51.2 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 50.5)

• Eurozone services sentiment gained momentum in July, exceeding expectations to reach a six-month high, even as looming trade tensions with the US cast a shadow over the outlook.
• While private business activity showed signs of recovery, the risk of incoming tariffs threatens to stall this momentum.
• New business rose for the first time in six months, signaling improving demand, while employment in the sector increased, reflecting growing confidence among firms about future workloads. Cost pressures eased slightly, with input prices rising at a slower pace and the rate of price increases passed on to customers also moderating.
• As a result, the composite PMI edged up from 50.6 to 51.0, surpassing expectations of 50.7. On a country level, Germany’s composite PMI dipped slightly from 50.4 to 50.3, while France saw a modest improvement, rising from 49.2 to 49.6.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Jul P): 49.8 as expected (prior: 49.5)

• Manufacturing showed a slight improvement from the previous month but remained below the critical 50 threshold, reflecting continued contraction.
• US tariffs, which impact goods, appear to be weighing on manufacturers' confidence.
• The latest data pointed to the slowest pace of contraction in the sector since July 2022, as output inched higher and job losses eased to their mildest rate since June 2023. However, demand remained a concern, with new orders continuing to decline, underscoring persistent weakness. On the pricing front, input costs fell again, though the decline was modest.

 

UK: Services PMI (Jul P): 51.2 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 52.8)

• The latest PMI came in below expectations, highlighting sluggish growth and weak employment alongside persistently high inflation. With the Bank of England expressing growing concerns about the labor market, this report likely cements the case for an interest rate cut in August.
• The composite PMI slowed from 52.0 to 51.0, falling short of the anticipated 51.8, signaling a further loss of economic momentum.

 

Eurozone: ECB keeps its policy rate unchanged at 2%

• The ECB has adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach, holding interest rates steady with the deposit rate at 2%. While the Governing Council refrained from committing to further rate cuts, its language left the door open for additional easing if necessary.
• In its policy statement, the ECB emphasized that the disinflationary continues to progress, but uncertainty remains exceptionally high due to ongoing trade disputes. This signals the possibility of further monetary easing later this year, should economic conditions deteriorate.
• We anticipate the ECB will lower its policy rate by 25 basis points before the year’s end.