Analisi macro giornaliere

Eurozone: Retail sales (Nov.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.5%)

• Retail sales y/y: 1.2% vs 1.7% expected (prior: 2.1% revised from 1.9%)
• Retail sales inched higher in November but remain anemic on a yearly basis and below the pre-pandemic trend.
• The further recent decline in consumer confidence does not bode well for the coming months. However, rising real incomes should act as a support for private consumption in 2025.

Germany: Industrial production (Nov.): 1.5% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -1.0%)

• IP y/y: -2.8% vs -4.5% expected (prior: -4.2% revised from -4.5%)
• Gains were broad-based across subsectors, with production ex energy and construction up 1.0%.
• Industrial production was recently a bit more stable, but leading indicators suggest that it will probably still contract in Q4 (more modestly than in Q3).

Germany: Trade Balance (Nov.): 19.7bn EUR vs 14.5bn expected (prior: 13.4bn)

• Exports: 2.1% m/m vs 2.0% expected (prior: -2.9%)
• Imports: -3.3% vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.3%)

US: ADP Employment change (Dec): 122k vs 140k expected (prior: 146k)

• US private employment fell short of expectations in December, as the labor market decelerated in the final months of 2024.
• Manufacturing jobs dropped by 11K for the third consecutive month, while healthcare stood out as a bright spot, creating more jobs than any other sector in the latter half of the year.
• The services sector added 112K jobs in December, driven primarily by education and health services (57K), followed by leisure and hospitality (22K), financial activities (12K), trade, transportation, and utilities (8K), and information (5K).
• In a positive note, the Labor Department reported that initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 201K, the lowest level for February. Overall, the US labor market remains resilient, suggesting a solid consumption outlook as we head into 2025.

Germany: Factory orders (Nov): -5.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -1.5%)

• Factory orders fell in November, mainly due to a decrease in bulk orders (aircraft, ships, and trains), which had previously experienced strong growth. 
• Excluding bulk orders, there was a slight increase of 0.2% m/m and an annualized rise of 3.2% in Q4 2024. 
• Non-bulk orders have shown stability in recent months, despite ongoing weakness in the new orders index of the German manufacturing PMI. 
• Hard data presents a more encouraging picture than survey results, hinting at a potential stabilization in the sector.

Germany: Retail sales (Nov): -0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -1.5%)

• German retail sales unexpectedly decreased in November, driven by a drop in non-food retail sector (-1.8%) namely e-commerce and mail order (-1.2%).

Eurozone: PPI (Dec): 1.6% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• In November, producer prices in the Eurozone saw a significant increase, driven by soaring energy costs, which surged by 5.4% compared to just 1.6% the previous month.
• Among the region's major economies, France experienced a 3.2% rise in producer prices, followed by Spain at 2.7%, Italy at 1.8%, and Germany at 0.6%.
• However, on a yearly basis, producer prices in the Euro Area declined by 1.2%, a slight improvement from the previous year's 3.3% drop.

Eurozone: Economic confidence (Dec): 93.7 vs 95.6 expected (prior: 95.6 revised from 95.8)

• Economic confidence has plummeted to its lowest level since 2023, as political turmoil in Germany and France, coupled with chilling effects of US trade policy on businesses.
• Confidence has deteriorated across various sectors: industrials fell to -14.1 from -11.4, retailers dropped to -14.5 from -13.8, constructors decreased to -5.2 from -4.9, and consumers slid to -14.5 from -13.8. In contrast, service providers saw a slight improvement, rising to 5.9 from 5.3.
• Among the largest economies in the EU, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) showed significant declines in France (93.5, down from 96.5), Germany (86.1, down from 88.6), and Italy (98.2, down from 99.3). Only Spain experienced an uptick, with its ESI rising to 102.9 from 102.

US: ISM Services (Dec.): 54.1 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 52.1)

• The underlying composition of the report was mixed, with an increase in the business activity and new orders components while the employment component tilted lower.
• Importantly, the prices paid index rose to 64.4 in December (the highest since January 2023), up from 58.2 in November, which confirms that the risks to inflation are skewed to the upside. This is at least partly due to the potential tariff increase as survey participants mentioned that tariffs are a major concern for their industries.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Nov.): 8098k vs 7740k expected (prior: 7839k revised from 7744k)

• Often seen as a leading indicator of wage growth, the quits rate declined to 1.9% in November, down from 2.1% in October.
• This report adds to evidence that the labor market remains very resilient. Trump’s restrictive immigration policy could lead to higher job openings and lower unemployment.

US: Trade balance (Nov.): -78.2 bn USD vs -78.3 bn expected (prior: -73.6 bn revised from -73.8 bn)

• The trade deficit widened in November, while the October deficit level was revised down very slightly.
• Firms have probably frontloaded imports ahead of the rise in tariffs from the incoming Trump administration - this is likely to have continued in December.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Dec. Prel.): 2.4% y/y as expected (prior: 2.2%)

• CPI m/m: 0.4% as expected (prior: -0.3%)
• Core CPI: 2.7% y/y as expected (prior: 2.7%)
• As expected, higher energy prices (+2.1pp to +0.1% y/y), helped by base effect, was the key driver behind the increase in annual inflation.
• Services inflation edged up 0.1pp to 4% y/y.
• Eurozone inflation is likely to resume its decline in January and to fall below 2% in H1 before recovering in H2.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• At a record low level for the fourth consecutive month.

France: CPI (Dec. Prel.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• CPI y/y: 1.8% vs 1.9% expected (prior: 1.7%)
• Prices of manufactured goods fell again (-0.5% m/m), while those for energy edged higher (+0.7% m/m).
• Services inflation is still up 2.3% y/y, for the third consecutive month.

Italy: CPI (Dec. Prel.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• CPI y/y: 1.4% vs 1.6% expected (prior: 1.5%)
• The decline was driven by weaker-than-expected food prices. Core inflation also edged lower.

Switzerland: CPI (Dec.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• CPI y/y: 0.6% as expected (prior: 0.7%)
• The weakness was broad-based across goods and services.
• However, Q4 average inflation stands at 0.7%, in line with the SNB's latest conditional inflation forecast.
• Inflation is set to fall further in January thanks to the 10% decline in electricity price and as the 2024 VAT hike will drop out of the annual number.

US: Factory orders (Nov): -0.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.2%)

• US factory orders declined more than anticipated in November, with durable goods-producing industries experiencing a 1.2% drop (driven by transportation).
• This decline was primarily driven by significant decreases in transportation equipment (-3%), fabricated metal products (-1.7%), and computers and electronic products (-0.5%).
• In contrast, non-durable goods producers saw a modest increase of 0.4%. When excluding transportation, overall factory orders rose slightly by 0.2%.

US: Services PMI (Dec F): 56.8 vs 58.5 expected (prior: 56.1)

• The US Services PMI for December was revised down to 56.8 from an initial 58.5, yet it still surpassed November's 56.1, indicating the strongest growth in the sector since March 2022.
• Business activity surged in December, driven by fuller order books and increased optimism for the year ahead. Companies are hopeful for more business-friendly policies from the incoming Trump administration, including favorable tax and regulatory changes and protectionist tariffs.

Spain: PMI Services (Dec): 57.3 vs 54.1 expected (prior: 53.1)

• In December, Spain's service sector experienced robust growth, driven by a significant increase in new business and recovery efforts following the earlier flooding in 2024. Optimism led companies to hire more staff, even as they faced mounting pressure on capacity and a resurgence of work backlogs.
• Spain's Composite PMI surged to 56.8, up from 53.2 in November, marking the highest level of private sector activity since March 2023. This impressive increase underscores Spain's robust economic growth compared to its European counterparts.

Germany: CPI (Dec P): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.7%)

• German inflation unexpectedly accelerated in December, rising to an annual rate of 2.9% from 2.6% the previous month, surpassing all forecasts.
• This increase was primarily driven by energy costs, which fell less sharply than anticipated (-1.7% compared to -3.7%), and food prices, which rose to 2% from 1.8%. Additionally, service costs remained persistently high, edging up to 4.1% from 4%.
• In response to this inflationary pressure, the yield on German two-year debt increased by 4 basis points to 2.2%. Meanwhile, traders slightly adjusted their expectations for ECB rate cuts, now pricing in a deposit rate of 2% by the end of 2025, aligning with our projections.