Analisi macro giornaliere
giovedì, settembre 12
ECB cuts deposit facility rate by 25 bps to 3.50%
US: PPI (Aug): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from 0.1%)
- US producer prices edged up slightly following downward revisions, with service prices rising 0.4% after a 0.3% decline in July. This increase was driven primarily by a 4.8% jump in guestroom rental costs.
- Prices also rose for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, auto fuels. On the other hand, airline passenger service prices dropped by 0.8%.
- PPI data for categories relevant to the Fed's preferred inflation measure (PCE) remained relatively subdued.
- The core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% in August and 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above expectations.
US: Initial jobless claims (Sep 7): 230k vs 226k expected (prior: 228k revised from 227k)
- Despite the recent uptick, the level of jobless claims has remained low for several weeks, easing concerns about a potential downturn in the labor market.
- Initial jobless claims, before seasonal adjustments, dropped by 12,968 to 177,663. New York experienced the largest decline, followed by Ohio and Georgia.
Eurozone: ECB cuts deposit facility rate by 25 bps to 3.50%
- The ECB lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points, in line with expectations, citing the need to take another step in reducing monetary policy restrictions.
- Lagarde stressed that risks remain tilted to the downside: economic growth projections were revised downward, with GDP now expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, down from the previous forecast of 0.9%.
- Inflation projections remain unchanged, though the ECB highlighted that domestic (services) inflation is still elevated due to rising wages. However, labor cost pressures are easing, and corporate profits are helping cushion the impact of higher wages on inflation. Compensation per employee eased to 4.3% in the second quarter from 4.8% in the first.
- Looking forward, the ECB is likely to reduce its policy rate by another 25 basis points before the end of the year.
UK: RICS house price balance (Aug): 1% vs -14% expected (prior: -18% revised from -19%)
- The UK Residential Market Survey house price balance, which tracks the difference between the percentage of respondents reporting price increases and those seeing declines, rose to +1% in August 2024 from -18% in July. This marks the first positive reading since October 2022.
mercoledì, settembre 11
No big surprises from the US inflation report
US: CPI (Aug.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- CPI y/y: 2.5% as expected (prior: 2.9%)
- Core CPI: 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%); 3.2% y/y as expected (prior: 3.2%)
- Headline inflation fell to the lowest level since February 2021. The fall was mainly due to a decline in energy prices (-0.8% m/m).
- On the contrary, the main driver of inflation was again shelter costs (+0.5% m/m and +5.2% y/y from 5.1% in July). This left annual core inflation unchanged at 3.2%. Leading indicators for shelter costs continue to suggest that price pressures in this segment should ease.
- Headline inflation is likely to fall slightly in the coming months, which will allow the Fed to focus on engineering a soft landing, most likely by starting with a 25bp rate cut next week.
UK: Industrial production (July): -0.8% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.8%)
- IP y/y: -1.2% vs -0.1% expected (prior: -1.4%)
- The decline was led by durables (-1.5% m/m) and investment goods (-1.9% m/m), adding to evidence that the rapid recovery from the recession is losing momentum.
martedì, settembre 10
US small business optimism dips to a three-month low
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Aug): 91.2 vs 93.6 expected (prior: 93.7)
- In August, small business optimism slipped to a three-month low as companies became increasingly pessimistic about future sales and broader economic conditions.
- Eight out of the ten components of the index declined, with sales expectations experiencing the sharpest drop, falling by 9 points.
- This downturn led firms to scale back hiring plans, with a net 13% of owners indicating they intend to create jobs in the next three months—down 2 points from the previous month.
- Meanwhile, 24% of business owners identified inflation as their most pressing concern, a slight decrease from July.
- Additionally, the net percentage of owners raising average selling prices fell by 2 points to a seasonally adjusted net 20%.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Jul): 4.0% y/y vs 4.1% expected (prior: 4.6% revised from 4.5%)
- Average earnings, including bonuses, softened, and wages excluding bonuses increased by 5.1% in the three months leading up to July, marking a two-year low.
- This represents another easing in wage pressures, keeping the Bank of England on course to lower interest rates again this year.
- The primary driver of the decline was the exclusion of April's nearly 10% hike in the national living wage from the latest three-month measure. The data suggests that any spillover effects from the earlier wage boost have been largely contained so far.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jul): 4.1% as expected (prior: 4.2%)
- The unemployment rate declined in the three months leading up to July, aligning with consensus expectations.
Italy: Industrial production (Jul): -0.9% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Italy's industrial production contracted more than expected, driven by declines in capital goods (-1.2% vs 2% in June), consumer goods (-2.3% vs -0.3% in June), and intermediate goods (-0.7% vs 0% in June). However, output for energy goods rebounded, rising by 2.3% compared to a -1.4% drop in June.
- On a yearly basis, industrial production decreased by 3.3%, following a 2.6% decline in June, marking the 18th consecutive month of negative readings.
Spain: Industrial production (Jul): -0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)
- Spain's industrial production declined more than expected, driven by decreases in capital goods (-0.7% vs -0.9% in the previous period), energy (-0.6% vs 0.2%), and consumer goods (-0.3% vs 0.2%).
venerdì, settembre 06
Mixed jobs report in the US
US: Non-farm payrolls (Aug.): 142k vs 165k expected (prior: 89k revised from 114k)
- Headline payrolls are disappointing, including further significant negative revisions to the previous months (June payrolls were revised down to 118k from 206k), but the overall report gives a mixed picture of the labor market, especially as the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.2% (as expected) from 4.3%
- In terms of sectors, leisure & hospitality gained 46k jobs and construction 34k. Apart from these two sectors, gains were again driven by non-cyclical sectors such as health care & social assistance (+44k). Manufacturing lost 24k jobs and retail 11k.
US: Average hourly earnings (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Y/y: 3.8% vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.6%)
- Despite a weakening labor market, wage growth remains sustained (in real terms as well), which should continue to underpin consumer spending.
- Overall, this report confirms that the labor market is cooling in an orderly fashion, which probably does not warrant a big rate cut from the Fed in two weeks, but rather 25bp.
US: ISM Services (Aug. (released yesterday)): 51.5 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 51.4)
- The underlying composition was mixed: the business activity (-1.2pt to 53.3) and employment (-0.9pt to 50.2) sub-indices declined while the new orders component increased (+0.6pt to 53.0).
- Moreover, the new export orders index sharply declined (-7-6pt to 50.9) and the prices paid measure edged higher by 0.3pt to 57.3.
Eurozone: GDP (Q2 F.): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- GDP growth was revised down to 0.2% q/q in Q2 from 0.3%.
- While trade and government spending supported growth, investment continued to be a drag.
Germany: Industrial production (July): -2.4% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.4%)
- IP y/y: -5.3% vs -3.5% expected (prior: -3.7%, revised from -4.1%)
- A key driver of these volatile data is the auto sector (holiday and weather related factors) but other parts of the manufacturing sector were also weak in July.
- More recent data points to a rebound in August, at least for the auto sector, but business surveys continue to point a weak underlying trend.
Germany: Trade Balance (July): 16.8bn EUR vs 20.9bn expected (prior: 20.4bn)
- Exports: +1.7% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: 3.4%)
- Imports: +5.4% m/m vs +0.7% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Exports look weaker than in Q2, but these data are noisy on a m/m basis.
France: Industrial production (July): -0.5% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.8%)
- IP y/y: -2.2% vs -0.9% expected (prior: -1.7%)
- Weaker-than-expected output in July and business surveys suggest little chance of recovery in the near term.
Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Aug.): -34.6 vs -32.5 expected (prior: -32.4)
- Slightly down from July, but still better than the most part of 2024.
mercoledì, settembre 04
US JOLTS report shows a cooling labor market
US: JOLTS Job Openings (Jul): 7673k vs 8100k expected (prior: 7910k revised from 8184k)
- U.S. job openings have dropped to their lowest level since January 2021, while layoffs have increased, aligning with other indicators of weakening demand for workers.
- This decline in openings has sparked concerns among Federal Reserve officials, as recent data points to a slowing labor market.
- Another weak employment report, expected on Friday, could lead to a larger-than-anticipated rate cut.
- Notable decreases in job openings were seen in health care and social assistance (-187,000), state and local government excluding education (-101,000), and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-88,000). However, job openings rose in professional and business services (+178,000) and the federal government (+28,000).
US: Factory orders (Jul): 5.0% m/m vs 4.8% expected (prior: -3.3%)
- New orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased by 5% month-over-month to $592.1 bn, bouncing back from a 3.3% decline in the previous month and surpassing market expectations of a 4.7% rise.
- Orders for durable goods surged by 9.8%, largely driven by a 34.7% jump in transportation equipment. Meanwhile, non-durable goods orders rose by 0.8%. Excluding the transportation sector, factory orders showed a more modest increase of 0.4%.
US: Trade balance (Jul): -78.8 bn USD vs -79.0 bn expected (prior: .73.0 bn revised from -73.1 bn)
- Exports in the U.S. rose by 0.5% to reach a record high of $266.6 bn, driven by gains in semiconductors, government goods, and financial services. However, there was a decline in exports of passenger cars and gem diamonds.
- At the same time, imports surged by 2.1% to $345.4 bn, the highest level since March 2022, fueled by increased purchases of computer accessories, nonmonetary gold, finished metal shapes, intellectual property charges, and transportation services.
Eurozone: PPI (Jul): 0.8% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)
- Prices in the Eurozone rose by 0.8% compared to the previous month, marking the sharpest increase since December 2022. This follows a revised 0.6% rise in June and significantly surpasses market expectations of a 0.3% increase.
- The main driver of the surge was energy prices, which jumped by 2.8%, up from 1.8% in June. Meanwhile, costs for intermediate, durable, and non-durable goods dipped by 0.1%, and prices for capital goods remained unchanged. Excluding energy, producer prices declined by 0.1%.
- Among major economies, prices increased modestly in Germany and France (both up 0.2%) but surged in Italy (2%) and Spain (1.9%). On a yearly basis, PPI fell by 2.1%, improving from a 3.3% drop in June.
Eurozone: PMI Services (Aug F): 52.9 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 51.9)
- Despite a downward revision from the flash estimate of 53.3 to 52.9, the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI remains above the 50-mark, signaling expansion for the seventh consecutive month.
- Eurozone composite has been revised downward from 51.1 to 51.0.