每日宏观动态

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan 3): 208k vs 212k expected (prior: 200k revised from 199k)

• Initial jobless claims edged slightly higher in the week ending January 3, but remain at a low level, while the increase in continuing claims to 1914k (+56k) suggests softer conditions, with laid-off workers taking longer to find new jobs.

US: Trade balance (Oct): -29.4 bn USD vs -58.7 bn expected (prior: -48.1 bn revised from -52.8 bn)

• The trade balance narrowed more than expected, with exports rising 2.6% and imports falling 3.2%.
• Goods exports grew 3.8%, driven entirely by gold, while the sharp drop in imports was led by pharmaceuticals as companies likely frontloaded drug imports in September, anticipating Trump’s tariffs on pharmaceuticals.

US: Nonfarm productivity (3Q P): 4.9% q/q vs 5.0% expected (prior: 4.1% revised from 3.3%)

• Preliminary data show productivity gains eased labor cost pressures, with unit labor costs falling at an annualized rate of 1.9% in Q3.

US: Wholesale inventories (Oct F): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• The final estimate met expectations.

Eurozone: Economic confidence (Dec): 96.7 vs 97.1 expected (prior: 97.1 revised from 97.0)

• Economic sentiment in the euro area dipped at year-end, falling from a 31-month high of 97.1. The decline was driven by weaker confidence among consumers (-0.3 points), services (-0.2 points), and retailers (-1.2 points). Industry and construction saw slight gains (+0.3 points each), though both remain at low levels.
• Among the bloc’s largest economies, sentiment dropped in Germany (-1.1), France (-0.9), Italy (-0.6), and Spain (-0.5).

Eurozone: PPI (Nov): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Producer prices rose faster than anticipated in November, driven by a 1.8% surge in energy costs. Excluding energy, industrial prices edged up by just 0.1%.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Nov): 6.3% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.4%)

• The euro area labor market showed resilience in November, with unemployment edging down as 71k fewer people were jobless. Notable declines came from the periphery, including Italy (-30k), Spain (-19k), and Greece (-14k).

Germany: Factory orders (Nov): 5.6% m/m vs -1.0% expected (prior: 1.6% revised from 1.5%)

• Germany's factory orders jumped in November, posting a third consecutive monthly gain and the fastest growth since December 2024, fueling recovery hopes.
• The rise was led by large-scale orders, though demand still grew by 0.7% excluding them.

Switzerland: CPI (Dec): 0.0% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Swiss consumer prices were flat in December, averaging 0.1% y/y in Q4, aligning with the SNB's December forecast.
• The increase was driven by higher domestic prices (up from 0.4% to 0.5% y/y), while the strong Swiss franc weighed on foreign prices (down from 1.9% to 1.6% y/y).
• We expect the SNB to keep its policy rate at 0% in the coming quarters, with no further rate cuts.
• A return to negative rates would require a sharp deterioration in the inflation outlook, likely triggered by a narrowing rate differential with the ECB and sustained CHF appreciation.

US: ADP Employment change (Dec.): 41k vs 50k expected (prior: -29k revised from -32k)

• ADP survey turned positive, but fragilities remained in place and data came slightly lower than expected.
• Job creations were centered on medium-sized firms (34 k) and also in services (44 k), thanks to education-health and leisure-hospitality. Other sectors remained depressed and job creations were very limited for large and small firms over the month.

US: Services PMI (Dec.): 54.4 vs 52.2 expected (prior: 52.6)

• Business sentiment has accelerated further in services over the month.
• The improvement from the prior month was broad-based, and major components have regained such as: activity, new orders, inventories and employment.
• Prices paid have decreased over the month, but the index remained at a high level.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Nov.): 7146k vs 7648k expected (prior: 7449k revised from 7670k)

• Job openings came lower than expected and also lower than the prior month.
• Openings and hirings have decreased over the month, pointing to ongoing lower demand from firms.
• Jobs openings have decreased from the prior month for several major sectors: trade-transport, education-health, and leisure-hospitality as well as the public sector. On the opposite, a rebound was seen in jobs openings for professional business services.
• In parallel, quitters and separations were slightly higher over the month.

US: Factory orders (Oct.): -1.3% m/m vs -1.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Defense orders (-11.3% m/m after 24.3% m/m the prior month) were mainly responsible for the fall in orders; orders for capital goods non-defense and ex aircraft were up by 0.5% m/m after 1.0% m/m the prior month, which remained positive for investment trend.
• Shipments were up by 0.1% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month) and inventories were flat over the month (-0.1% m/m prior month).

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Dec.): 2.0% y/y as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• First estimate has pointed to a 0.2%m/m rise, as expected, in monthly data (-0.3% m/m prior month).
• Energy prices were down by 0.8% m/m and good prices also down by 0.3% m/m, while services have rebounded by 0.7% m/m. Core prices were up by 0.3% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.0% y/y and for core inflation from 2.4% y/y to 2.3% y/y.

France: Consumer confidence (Dec.): 90 as expected (prior: 89)

• Sentiment remained negative on future personal financial situation, but concerns about unemployment has slightly eased.
• Preference for saving has nevertheless increased further over the month.

Germany: Retail sales (Nov.): -0.6% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from -0.3%)

• Sales were heavily down over the month, but data remained volatile offering large revisions to past data.
• Over the month, sales of food, clothes and IT were down while furniture, health and internet sales were positive.

Germany: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed has increased by 3k after 1k the prior month.

Italy: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Preliminary data pointed to mixed picture: rising prices over the month for transport and leisure, balanced by falling prices for hotels, clothes and food.
• Yearly trend has slightly accelerated from 1.1%y/y to 1.2% y/y.

US: Services PMI (Dec.): 52.5 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 54.1)

• Sentiment has decreased in services over the month, but the index remained high.
• Views have moderated on new business and demand was seen as cooling as exports were weak.
• Sentiment has decreased marginally on employment; costs were on the rise due to tariffs and prices have also increased further.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Dec.): 52.4 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 53.6)

• Business sentiment in services has decreased over the month and came lower than in first estimates but the index remained above 50.
• Sentiment has decreased in Germany, France and Italy. New orders have declined in France and related index passed below 50.
• In Spain, sentiment has strongly rebounded (from 55.6 to 57.1) thanks higher new orders.
• Domestic demand was the main driver versus falling new exports; employment has improved while costs have increased significantly.
• Composite index (manufacturing + services) remained above the 50 level for Eurozone, Germany (51.3), France and Spain at 50 for France, pointing to ongoing moderate growth.

France: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• A strong rebound of prices of fresh food (1.4% m/m) was more than balanced by decreasing prices for manufactured goods (-0.3% m/m) and energy prices (-1.6% m/m) according to this first estimate.
• Yearly trend has declined from 0.8% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y.

Germany: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.5%)

• According to first estimate, prices of clothes, fuels and household goods have decreased over the month while prices of services remained sustained (0.6% m/m).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.6% y/y the prior month to 2.0% y/y.

UK: Services PMI (Dec.): 51.4 vs 52.1 expected (prior: 51.3)

• Sentiment was marginally up from the prior month, but it remained below expectations.
• Opinions on new business have strongly rebounded (52.4 after 49.8); sentiment on employment remained mixed while costs have increased further.
• Composite index has slightly decreased from 52.1 to 51.4 over the month.

US: ISM Manufacturing (Dec.): 47.9 vs 48.4 expected (prior: 48.2)

• Business confidence came lower than expected and lower than the prior month.
• Details offered a mix picture: sentiment has decreased for production and inventories, but it slightly regained for new orders (from 47.4 to 47.7), backlog of orders and employment.
• While PMI manufacturing has just slightly eased (from 52.2 to 51.8), ISM manufacturing (more export and large firms-oriented index) remained below 50 over the past months, pointing to ongoing fragilities on large exporters in manufacturing.

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Dec.): 45.8 vs 49.6 expected (prior: 49.7)

• Business sentiment has deteriorated over the month contrary to expectations.
• All major sub-components came lower over the month such as output, prices, inventories and employment; the index was back to its Sept. level.
• Separately, the PMI services has strongly rebounded from 45.3 prior month to 52.1. All major sub-items have rebounded and were above the 50 level, except employment (up from 45.5 to 46.8).

UK: M4 (Nov.): 4.3% y/y (prior: 3.5%)

• M4 growth has accelerated to 0.8% m/m after -0.2% m/m; M4 lending was up by 4.8% y/y after 4.3% y/y prior month.
• Credit to consumer has also accelerated by 8.1% y/y after 7.5% y/y prior month.
• Mortgage approvals were up to 64.5 k after 65 k the prior month.

Turkey: CPI (Dec.): 0.89% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.87%)

• Inflation remained sustained over the month, but slightly less than expected by the consensus.
• Prices have re-accelerated for food, communication and hotels-restaurants over the month, but declined for clothes and transport.
• Yearly trend has declined from 31.07% y/y the prior month to 30.89% y/y and for core inflation from 31.65 % y/y to 31.08% y/y.