US: Personal income (Aug): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Personal income accelerated to 0.4% m/m from 0.2% m/m in July. The accelerated pace of hiring and the increase in average hours worked accounted for much of the increase in income growth.
US: Personal spending (Aug): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)
- Personal spending slowed to 0.4% m/m from 0.9% m/m in July driven by a reduced consumption towards durable goods (-0.6% m/m) and services (0.4% m/m).
US: Core PCE deflator (Aug): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation rose at the slowest monthly pace since late 2020 bringing annual core inflation to 3.9% from a revised 4.3% in July. This could help policymakers to forgo an interest-rate hike at their next meeting.
US: Wholesale inventories (Aug): -0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Wholesale inventories fell less than expected, driven by a rebound in motor vehicle & parts dealers (1.1% m/m).
US: Chicago PMI (Sep): 44.1 vs 47.6 expected (prior: 48.7)
- Business activity decreased more than expected. Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion, whereas new orders fell and the direction reversed signaling contraction. Employment fell at a faster pace and Inventories fell at a slower pace, signaling both a contraction.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sep): 68.1 vs 67.7 expected (prior: 69.5)
- Final consumer sentiment index came at 68.1 from a preliminary reading of 67.7. Consumers are unsure about the trajectory of the economy given multiple sources of uncertainty around a possible government shutdown and the labor disputes in the auto industry.
Eurozone: CPI (Sep): 0.3% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- The preliminary Euro-area inflation cooled for the period of September. Core inflation decelerated at 0.2% m/m, driven by significant decrease in services prices at -0.9% m/m.
- Italy and Greece saw an increase in their prices (1.7% m/m and 1.9% m/m respectively) whereas Germany and Spain experienced a relatively modest increase in prices at 0.2% m/m and 0.6% m/m respectively.
Italy: CPI (Sep): 1.7% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Inflation in Italy accelerated more than expected. The move was driven by a significant increase in prices of shoes and clothing (26% m/m).
Germany: Retail sales (Aug): -1.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.8%)
- German retail sales decreased more than expected. On a yearly basis, retails sales decreased at -1.9% y/y in August whereas -0.7% y/y was expected.
Germany: Unemployment rate (Sep): 5.7% as expected (prior: 5.7%)
France: CPI (Sep): -0.5% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 1.0%)
- The French preliminary inflation eased more than expected despite a surge in energy prices (1.7% m/m) suggesting the underlying core is cooling. Services prices decreased by -1.6% m/m.
France: Consumer spending (Aug): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Consumer spending decreased as expected. Household durables goods saw the biggest drop (-4.2% m/m) whereas automobile saw the biggest jump (2.5% m/m).