市场洞察

US: Pending home sales (Aug.): -7.1% m/m vs -1.0% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.9%)

• The gauge of pending previously owned home sales fell to the lowest level since April 2020.
• Mortgage rates which surged to a nearly 23-year high, still high prices and limited inventory are leading to one of the most unaffordable housing markets ever.

US: GDP (Q2 T.): 2.1% q/q vs 2.2% expected (prior: 2.2%)

• Headline growth is unchanged from the previous estimate, but the composition is quite different, with consumption growth cut to 0.8% from 1.7%, business investment in structures revised up to 16.1% from 11.2%, and the contributions from net trade and inventories revised up by 0.26pp and 0.09pp respectively.
• The quinquennial revisions to the national accounts have not shown any significant change in the growth profile over the five years through 2022.
• The Q2 core PCE deflator was unrevised at 3.7%, as expected.

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept. 23): 204k vs 215k expected (prior: 202k revised from 201k)

• Continuing claims: 1670k vs 1675k expected (prior: 1658k revised from 1662k)
• Initial jobless claims remain very low, and well below the levels seen between March and August.

Eurozone: Economic confidence (Sept.): 93.3 vs 92.4 expected (prior: 93.6 revised from 93.3)

• Industrial confidence: -9.0 vs -10.5 expected (prior: -9.9 revised from -10.3)
• Services confidence: 4.0 vs 3.5 expected (prior: 4.3)
• The economic confidence index fell for the fifth consecutive time to the very low end of the range seen since 2021.
• On the positive side, the industrial confidence index slightly improved, but remains near the August's three-year low, while the services, retail and construction indices all edged lower.
• Business selling price expectations in services and in retail fell but the edged higher in manufacturing and construction.

Germany: CPI (Sept Prel.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• CPI y/y: 4.3% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.4%)
• Thanks to base effects from last year’s surge in prices (special subsidized public transport ticket and a rebate on motor fuel taxes in June-August 2022), y/y inflation fell strongly in September.
• Inflation is likely to slow further in the coming months.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 96.4 vs 97.0 expected (prior: 97.7 revised from 97.8)

• Lowest level since November 2020.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 105.4 vs 105.5 expected (prior: 106.5)

• Consumer confidence fell to a 6-month low.

Spain: CPI (Sept. Prel.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• CPI y/y: 3.2% vs 3.3% expected (prior: 2.4%)
• The rise in inflation was driven by an increase in utility bills and higher fuel prices.
• Favorable base effects during the summer will continue to unwind and the headline rate is likely to continue to rise in the coming months.

US: Durable goods orders (Aug.): 0.2% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -5.6% revised from -5.2%)

• Orders have regained over the month thanks to defense sectors, while orders for civil aircrafts were down.
• Orders for capital non-defense ex aircraft (core orders) were up 0.9% m/m after -0.4% m/m. Orders for machinery, electrical equipment and metals were strong over the month.
• Shipments were up by 0.5% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month, and up by 0.7% m/m for core orders (-0.3% m/m prior month).
• Inventories were up by 0.2% m/m after being flat the previous period. Inventories were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m for core orders.
• While global data remained sluggish core orders were more sustained after small correction the prior months.

France: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 83 vs 84 expected (prior: 85)

• Consumer confidence has declined due to lower financial situation (past and future conditions) and rising concerns on unemployment.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -26.5 vs -26 expected (prior: -25.6 revised from -25.5)

• Inflation remained a concern and preference for saving has increased again.

Eurozone: M3 (Aug.): -1.3% y/y vs -1% expected (prior: -0.4%)

• Monetary aggregates and credit have continued to slowdown.
• M1 was down by 10.4% y/y after -9.2% y/y the prior month; M2 was down by 2.4% y/y after -1.4% y/y.
• Credit to private sector has slowed down further, from 1.3% y/y the prior month to 0.6% y/y. Credit to consumer ex housing has rebounded, while housing and credit to corporates remained weak.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 69.1 (prior: 70.6 revised from 70.4)

• Confidence has decreased with rising concerns about economic and personal situation and rising unemployment.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 100.1 (prior: 96.9 revised from 96.6)

• Sentiment has marginally increased in manufacturing while it has decreased on services, construction, and retail sectors.

Norway: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 3.5% vs 3.4% expected (prior: 3.5%)

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (July): 0.1% y/y vs -0.1% expected (prior: -1.17%)

• Prices were up by 0.90% m/m, the same trend as seen the prior month.
• Demand and prices remained strong on some specific cities.

US: New home sales (Aug.): 675k vs 714k expected (prior: 739k)

• Sales have decreased over the month in all main regions.
• Inventories have increased again, after volatile trend in Q2.
• Median prices remained negative but less negative than the prior month: -2.3% y/y after -8.7% y/y the prior month.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Sept.): 103 vs 105.5 expected (prior: 108.7 revised from 106.1)

• Sentiment on current situation has marginally increased from the prior month (from 146.7 to 147.1), but it remained below the past 3-month average level.
• Expectations have decreased from 83.3 to 73.7 and the index was back to the levels seen in March-April.
• In details, sentiment remained cautious on labor as the factor " labor hard to get" was on the rise since past month.
• The future conditions have deteriorated about economic situation, income, and labor.
• Willingness to buy autos, houses and other large items have decreased over the month.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Sept.): 5 vs -7 expected (prior: -7)

• Sentiment has improved on current situation on orders, shipments, and employment; prices received have increased but less than prices paid over the past months.
• The 6-month views have eased on lower orders and shipments, but sentiment remained positive on employment and capex.

Brazil: CPI (Sept.): 0.35% m/m vs 0.37% expected (prior: 0.28%)

• Prices have accelerated over the month for energy-transport and clothes, while they declined for food and households’ goods.
• Yearly trend has increased to 5% y/y after 4.24% y/y.

Germany: IFO (Sept.): 85.7 vs 85.2 expected (prior: 85.8 revised from 85.7)

• Business confidence was better than expected but stayed close to the prior month.
• Sentiment on current situation has slightly decreased, from 89 to 88.7 and expectations were marginally up from 82.7 to 82.9.
• Over the month, confidence was less negative than the prior month on manufacturing and trade sectors, while sentiment has declined on services and construction.

Spain: PPI (Aug.): 1.2% m/m (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Prices were on a sustained pace over the month due to a strong rebound in energy prices, and also sustained rises in manufactured goods prices and food.
• Yearly trend has declined from -8.6% y/y to -10% y/y.

Poland: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 5% as expected (prior: 5%)

• Unemployed remained stable over the month.

Brazil: Current account (Aug.): -778 M$ vs -1750 M$ expected (prior: -4032 M$ revised from -3605 M$)

• Trade deficit has decreased over the month; foreign direct investment has regained for USD 4244 M the prior month to USD 4270 M.

Brazil: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 97 (prior: 96.8)

• Sentiment on current situation has increased from the prior month (index at 83.2 after 81.4), while expectations have decreased from 107.6 to 106.7.

Turkey: Industrial confidence (Sept.): 105.1 (prior: 104.6)

• Business confidence has increased from the prior month (sa index).
• Opinions have increased on future economic situation and capex, while they have eroded for orders and exports from the prior month.