每日宏观动态

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.7): 200k vs 194k expected (prior: 191k revised from 189k)

• Continuing claims: 1697 k after 1717 k the prior month.

US: Existing home sales (Oct.): 3.75M vs 3.85M expected (prior: 3.97M revised from 3.99M)

• Sales have decreased for both single-family houses (-5.8% m/m) and multifamily houses (-2.9% m/m).
• Inventories have increased over the month; median prices were up by 0.4% y/y (1.3% y/y the prior month).

Sweden: CPI (Oct.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Prices have declined over the month for clothes, household goods, leisure and education while housing utilities have increased. Core inflation was down by 0.1% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend declined from 1.5% y/y prior month to 1.1% y/y, and core inflation from 0.5% y/y prior month to 0.1% y/y.

UK: RICS house price balance (Oct.): -36% vs -34% expected (prior: -34% revised from -32%)

• Consensus has decreased about prices, current and future sales over the month.

UK: GDP (Q3-26): 0.7% q/q as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Growth was more sustained in Q3 and in line with expectations. Domestic demand was firmer over the quarter.
• Consumption was up by 0.6%q after 0.3%q and total investment up by 1.7%q (0.9%q in Q2).
• Net trade was a drag on growth after positive contribution in Q2.
• Based on sectors, transport and business services were the main drivers of the quarterly growth. AI, new technologies and business services have supported growth.

UK: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.8%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.7% m/m (the same as prior month), construction was up by 0.8% m/m (-0.5% m/m prior month) and services up by 0.2% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month).

Germany: CPI (Oct.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Final data confirmed the fall in monthly inflation due to renewed lower domestic taxes on petrol.
• Prices of transport came lower over the month, with petrol prices down by 5.5% m/m (6.9% m/m prior month); leisure prices have also decreased.
• Separately, prices of clothes, communication and household energy have increased over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.3% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.

Italy: Industrial production (Sept.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -1.2% revised from -1.3%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded after a large fall the prior month.
• The rebound was centered on capital and intermediate goods, while production of energy and durable consumer goods has declined over the month.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Oct.): 97.8 vs 98.2 expected (prior: 97.9)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased over the month.
• Details offered a mixed picture: sentiment has increased on economic outlook and hirings, while opinions decreased on credit conditions; selling prices are on the rise.

US: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Many prices were firmer over the month, leading to a wider rise in inflation across different services and goods, and not only due to the energy sector; this confirmed the picture already seen in Sept., of wider inflation pointing to the need for the Fed to hike further with no more delay.
• Energy prices were up by 0.7% m/m (5.2% m/m prior month) due to rising prices of gasoline (1% m/m) and other energy products.
• Food prices came higher, up by 0.5% m/m after 0% m/m prior month; many products have contributed to the monthly rebound.
• Good prices were up by 0.2% m/m (0.3% m/m); some sectors have shown firmer rebound such as furniture, appliances and recreation products.
• Services were up by 0.3% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month); transport was up by 0.8% m/m and recreation services were up by 0.9% m/m, while shelter costs remained on regular trend of 0.3% m/m.
• As there was no index released in Oct. 2025, there is no official yearly trend data; nevertheless, we can estimate that yearly data should come in a 3.7-4.1% y/y range next month and core inflation in a 2.7-2.9% y/y range.

France: Unemployment rate (Q3-26): 8.2% vs 8.4% expected (prior: 8.3%)

• Unemployment has slightly decreased over the quarter.

Norway: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.5%)

• Prices of clothes, food, health and communication have decreased over the month, while they sharply rebounded for household goods and utilities.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.6% y/y (3.4% y/y prior month), but core inflation decreased from 3.0% y/y to 2.7% y/y.

Sweden: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.5% m/m (prior: 0.5%)

• Industrial activity was down by 3.2% m/m while services remained flat over the month.

Turkey: Industrial production (Sept.): 2.1% m/m (prior: -0.9% revised from -1.0%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded in manufacturing and energy sectors over the month.

US: Wholesale inventories (Sept.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Wholesale trade sales rose 2.8% m/m (vs 1.1% expected) after +2.0% in August.
• Wholesale sales ex autos rose by a solid 3.1%.

Germany: Trade Balance (Sept.): 15.6bn EUR vs 19.bn expected (prior: 17.9bn revised from 19.5bn)

• Exports were up 2% m/m (vs 0.5% expected and -0.4% m/m prior month); exports remained sustained to Europe, while they decreased to US and China.
• Imports were stronger, up 4.2% m/m (vs 0.5% expected and 0.6% m/m prior month); imports were robust from all major regions over the month.

Norway: PPI incl. Oil (Oct.): 6.7% m/m (prior: 12.4%)

• The yearly change accelerated from 48.8% y/y prior month to 59.0% y/y, which is the highest level since the end of 2022.