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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
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星期五 29 九月
Eurozone and US: good desinflation progress is underway

US: Personal income (Aug): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Personal income accelerated to 0.4% m/m from 0.2% m/m in July. The accelerated pace of hiring and the increase in average hours worked accounted for much of the increase in income growth.

 

US: Personal spending (Aug): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

  • Personal spending slowed to 0.4% m/m from 0.9% m/m in July driven by a reduced consumption towards durable goods (-0.6% m/m) and services (0.4% m/m).

 

US: Core PCE deflator (Aug): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation rose at the slowest monthly pace since late 2020 bringing annual core inflation to 3.9% from a revised 4.3% in July.  This could help policymakers to forgo an interest-rate hike at their next meeting.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (Aug): -0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Wholesale inventories fell less than expected, driven by a rebound in motor vehicle & parts dealers (1.1% m/m).

 

US: Chicago PMI (Sep): 44.1 vs 47.6 expected (prior: 48.7)

  • Business activity decreased more than expected. Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion, whereas new orders fell and the direction reversed signaling contraction. Employment fell at a faster pace and Inventories fell at a slower pace, signaling both a contraction.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sep): 68.1 vs 67.7 expected (prior: 69.5)

  • Final consumer sentiment index came at 68.1 from a preliminary reading of 67.7. Consumers are unsure about the trajectory of the economy given multiple sources of uncertainty around a possible government shutdown and the labor disputes in the auto industry.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Sep): 0.3% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • The preliminary Euro-area inflation cooled for the period of September. Core inflation decelerated at 0.2% m/m, driven by significant decrease in services prices at -0.9% m/m.
  • Italy and Greece saw an increase in their prices (1.7% m/m and 1.9% m/m respectively) whereas Germany and Spain experienced a relatively modest increase in prices at 0.2% m/m and 0.6% m/m respectively.

 

Italy: CPI (Sep): 1.7% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Inflation in Italy accelerated more than expected. The move was driven by a significant increase in prices of shoes and clothing (26% m/m).

 

Germany: Retail sales (Aug): -1.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.8%)

  • German retail sales decreased more than expected. On a yearly basis, retails sales decreased at -1.9% y/y in August whereas -0.7% y/y was expected.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Sep): 5.7% as expected (prior: 5.7%)

 

France: CPI (Sep): -0.5% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 1.0%)

  • The French preliminary inflation eased more than expected despite a surge in energy prices (1.7% m/m) suggesting the underlying core is cooling. Services prices decreased by -1.6% m/m.

 

France: Consumer spending (Aug): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Consumer spending decreased as expected. Household durables goods saw the biggest drop (-4.2% m/m) whereas automobile saw the biggest jump (2.5% m/m).

 

 

 

星期四 28 九月
US initial jobless claims remain very low, German inflation slightly lower than expected

US: Pending home sales (Aug.): -7.1% m/m vs -1.0% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.9%)

  • The gauge of pending previously owned home sales fell to the lowest level since April 2020.
  • Mortgage rates which surged to a nearly 23-year high, still high prices and limited inventory are leading to one of the most unaffordable housing markets ever.

 

US: GDP (Q2 T.): 2.1% q/q vs 2.2% expected (prior: 2.2%)

  • Headline growth is unchanged from the previous estimate, but the composition is quite different, with consumption growth cut to 0.8% from 1.7%, business investment in structures revised up to 16.1% from 11.2%, and the contributions from net trade and inventories revised up by 0.26pp and 0.09pp respectively.
  • The quinquennial revisions to the national accounts have not shown any significant change in the growth profile over the five years through 2022.
  • The Q2 core PCE deflator was unrevised at 3.7%, as expected.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept. 23): 204k vs 215k expected (prior: 202k revised from 201k)

  • Continuing claims: 1670k vs 1675k expected (prior: 1658k revised from 1662k)
  • Initial jobless claims remain very low, and well below the levels seen between March and August.

 

Eurozone: Economic confidence (Sept.): 93.3 vs 92.4 expected (prior: 93.6 revised from 93.3)

  • Industrial confidence: -9.0 vs -10.5 expected (prior: -9.9 revised from -10.3)
  • Services confidence: 4.0 vs 3.5 expected (prior: 4.3)
  • The economic confidence index fell for the fifth consecutive time to the very low end of the range seen since 2021.
  • On the positive side, the industrial confidence index slightly improved, but remains near the August's three-year low, while the services, retail and construction indices all edged lower.
  • Business selling price expectations in services and in retail fell but the edged higher in manufacturing and construction.

 

Germany: CPI (Sept Prel.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • CPI y/y: 4.3% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.4%)
  • Thanks to base effects from last year’s surge in prices (special subsidized public transport ticket and a rebate on motor fuel taxes in June-August 2022), y/y inflation fell strongly in September.
  • Inflation is likely to slow further in the coming months.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 96.4 vs 97.0 expected (prior: 97.7 revised from 97.8)

  • Lowest level since November 2020.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 105.4 vs 105.5 expected (prior: 106.5)

  • Consumer confidence fell to a 6-month low.

 

Spain: CPI (Sept. Prel.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • CPI y/y: 3.2% vs 3.3% expected (prior: 2.4%)
  • The rise in inflation was driven by an increase in utility bills and higher fuel prices.
  • Favorable base effects during the summer will continue to unwind and the headline rate is likely to continue to rise in the coming months.

 

星期三 27 九月
Firmer US orders for capital goods; weakening trend in credit in eurozone

US: Durable goods orders (Aug.): 0.2% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -5.6% revised from -5.2%)

  • Orders have regained over the month thanks to defense sectors, while orders for civil aircrafts were down.
  • Orders for capital non-defense ex aircraft (core orders) were up 0.9% m/m after -0.4% m/m. Orders for machinery, electrical equipment and metals were strong over the month.
  • Shipments were up by 0.5% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month, and up by 0.7% m/m for core orders (-0.3% m/m prior month).
  • Inventories were up by 0.2% m/m after being flat the previous period. Inventories were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m for core orders.
  • While global data remained sluggish core orders were more sustained after small correction the prior months.

 

France: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 83 vs 84 expected (prior: 85)

  • Consumer confidence has declined due to lower financial situation (past and future conditions) and rising concerns on unemployment.

 

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -26.5 vs -26 expected (prior: -25.6 revised from -25.5)

  • Inflation remained a concern and preference for saving has increased again.

 

Eurozone: M3 (Aug.): -1.3% y/y vs -1% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Monetary aggregates and credit have continued to slowdown.
  • M1 was down by 10.4% y/y after -9.2% y/y the prior month; M2 was down by 2.4% y/y after -1.4% y/y.
  • Credit to private sector has slowed down further, from 1.3% y/y the prior month to 0.6% y/y. Credit to consumer ex housing has rebounded, while housing and credit to corporates remained weak.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 69.1 (prior: 70.6 revised from 70.4)

  • Confidence has decreased with rising concerns about economic and personal situation and rising unemployment.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 100.1 (prior: 96.9 revised from 96.6)

  • Sentiment has marginally increased in manufacturing while it has decreased on services, construction, and retail sectors.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 3.5% vs 3.4% expected (prior: 3.5%)

星期二 26 九月
US Consumer confidence (Conference Board) lower with rising concerns on future economy

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (July): 0.1% y/y vs -0.1% expected (prior: -1.17%)

  • Prices were up by 0.90% m/m, the same trend as seen the prior month.
  • Demand and prices remained strong on some specific cities.

 

US: New home sales (Aug.): 675k vs 714k expected (prior: 739k)

  • Sales have decreased over the month in all main regions.
  • Inventories have increased again, after volatile trend in Q2.
  • Median prices remained negative but less negative than the prior month: -2.3% y/y after -8.7% y/y the prior month.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Sept.): 103 vs 105.5 expected (prior: 108.7 revised from 106.1)

  • Sentiment on current situation has marginally increased from the prior month (from 146.7 to 147.1), but it remained below the past 3-month average level.
  • Expectations have decreased from 83.3 to 73.7 and the index was back to the levels seen in March-April.
  • In details, sentiment remained cautious on labor as the factor " labor hard to get" was on the rise since past month.
  • The future conditions have deteriorated about economic situation, income, and labor.
  • Willingness to buy autos, houses and other large items have decreased over the month.

 

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Sept.): 5 vs -7 expected (prior: -7)

  • Sentiment has improved on current situation on orders, shipments, and employment; prices received have increased but less than prices paid over the past months.
  • The 6-month views have eased on lower orders and shipments, but sentiment remained positive on employment and capex.

 

Brazil: CPI (Sept.): 0.35% m/m vs 0.37% expected (prior: 0.28%)

  • Prices have accelerated over the month for energy-transport and clothes, while they declined for food and households’ goods.
  • Yearly trend has increased to 5% y/y after 4.24% y/y.
星期一 25 九月
German IFO: some stabilization and modest rise of expectations

Germany: IFO (Sept.): 85.7 vs 85.2 expected (prior: 85.8 revised from 85.7)

  • Business confidence was better than expected but stayed close to the prior month.
  • Sentiment on current situation has slightly decreased, from 89 to 88.7 and expectations were marginally up from 82.7 to 82.9.
  • Over the month, confidence was less negative than the prior month on manufacturing and trade sectors, while sentiment has declined on services and construction.

 

Spain: PPI (Aug.): 1.2% m/m (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Prices were on a sustained pace over the month due to a strong rebound in energy prices, and also sustained rises in manufactured goods prices and food.
  • Yearly trend has declined from -8.6% y/y to -10% y/y.

 

Poland: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 5% as expected (prior: 5%)

  • Unemployed remained stable over the month.

 

Brazil: Current account (Aug.): -778 M$ vs -1750 M$ expected (prior: -4032 M$ revised from -3605 M$)

  • Trade deficit has decreased over the month; foreign direct investment has regained for USD 4244 M the prior month to USD 4270 M.

 

Brazil: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 97 (prior: 96.8)

  • Sentiment on current situation has increased from the prior month (index at 83.2 after 81.4), while expectations have decreased from 107.6 to 106.7.

 

Turkey: Industrial confidence (Sept.): 105.1 (prior: 104.6)

  • Business confidence has increased from the prior month (sa index).
  • Opinions have increased on future economic situation and capex, while they have eroded for orders and exports from the prior month.
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