1. 投资专长
  2. Market insight
Menu

Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
星期五 30 七月
Eurozone Q2 GDP: better than expected except for Germany; mixed US data

US: Personal spending (June): 1% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)

  • Purchases have strongly rebounded from the prior month; while purchases of durables goods were down over the month, more spending was seen on services and non-durable goods, reflecting reopening sectors and end of restrictions.
  • The saving ratio has continued to decline, from 10.3% the prior month to 9.4%.

 

US: Personal income (June): 0.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -2.2% revised from -2%)

  • Wages were up by 0.8% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month.
  • Disposable income was flat, as government support and unemployment benefit have declined over the month.

 

US: Core PCE (June): 0.4% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Reopening sectors have refueled demand and prices in related sectors.
  • The yearly trend has rebounded from 3.4% y/y to 3.5% y/y, following with distance the rise in CPI and core CPI.

 

US: Employment cost index (Q2-21): 0.7% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • Costs remained on sustained rising trend; wages were up by 0.9% q/q after 1% q/q the prior quarter.

 

US: Chicago PMI (July): 73.4 vs 64.2 expected (prior: 66.1)

  • Contrary to expectations, business sentiment has increased after some weakness past month; the index was back close to the highs seen in May (index at 75).
  • Sentiment has increased on production and orders, while it has declined for inventories and employment. Some bottlenecks remained in place.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (July): 81.2 vs 80.8 expected (prior: 85.5)

  • Final confidence index has decreased by less than expected from the prior month.
  • Views on current conditions have eased from the prior month and expectations have declined, but slightly less than expected.
  • Inflation expectations (12 months) have rebounded from 4.2% y/y the prior month to 4.7% y/y (4.8% in initial estimate).
  • Sentiment has slightly eased on future financial conditions, due to rising inflation, and weakened on future economic conditions; willingness to buy houses and cars have decreased from the prior month.

 

France: GDP (Q2-21): 0.9% q/q vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.1%)

  • Activity has rebounded thanks to consumption and reopening of services. Q1 data were also revised up.
  • Consumption was up by 0.9%q (0.2% in Q1) with a rotation from durable goods to services; investment was strong (1.1% q after 0.4% q) thanks also to the service sector, and housing was also strong (2.7%q after -1.1%q).
  • Exports have rebounded (1.5%q after -0.5%q) but imports were also firmer (1.9%q after 1.1%q): net export contribution to GDP was just slightly negative (-0.1 pp); inventories have positively contributed to growth (0.2 pp after 0.4).
  • Q2 GDP was just 3% below its 2019 level.
  • Another strong rebound is expected in Q* that should push French GDP growth to 6% y/y.

 

France: Consumer spending (June): 0.3% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 10.6% revised from 10.4%)

  • Consumptions has slowed down after a strong rebound in May; purchases remained strong for some durable goods and clothes. Reopening of services have concentrated renewed purchases versus other manufactured goods.

 

France: CPI (July): 0.1% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Flash estimate has pointed to 1.6% y/y after 1.9% y/y the prior month.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (June): 9.7% vs 10.6% expected (prior: 10.2% revised from 10.5%)

  • The unemployment ratio has decreased more than expected over the period.

 

Spain: GDP (Q2-21): 2.8% q/q vs 2.1% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Consumption and services have strong rebounded over the quarter.
  • By sector, consumption was up by 5%q, but imports were also strong so that net exports contribution was slightly negative despite firmer exports; capex remained negative in all components.

 

Spain: Retail sales (real) (June): 1.4% y/y vs 10% expected (prior: 19.7% revised from 19.6%)

  • After strong rebound in sales in May, sales have moderated for manufactured goods, more purchases moving into services.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (June): 7.7% vs 7.9% expected (prior: 8% revised from 7.9%)

  • The unemployment ratio has declined more than expected, probably thanks to reopening services.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (July): 2.2% y/y vs 2% expected (prior: 1.9%)

  • According to flash estimates, prices were down by 0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
  • Flat food prices and declining prices of goods (discount period) have led to a -0.4% m/m in core inflation.
  • With base effects, the yearly trend has increased more than expected (2.2% y/y); further rise in trend is expected in the next months.

 

Eurozone: GDP (Q2-21): 2% q/q vs 1.5% expected (prior: -0.3%)

  • Despite disappointing German figures, quarterly growth has rebounded more than expected. The rebound was sustained in peripherals and in Eastern countries.
  • Another sustained rebound is expected in Q3, but momentum should fade after; despite rising virus concerns, no return to a lockdown is in sight.

 

Poland: CPI (July): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Oil prices remained sustained, while food prices were flat.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated further from 4.4% y/y the prior month to 5% y/y.

 

Brazil: Unemployment rate (May): 14.6% vs 14.5% expected (prior: 14.7%)

星期四 29 七月
US Q2 GDP has missed expectations on falling inventories; German inflation up to 3% y/y

US: Initial jobless claims (Jul.24): 400k vs 385k expected (prior: 424k revised from 419k)

  • Continuing claims: 3269 k after 3262 k the prior week.

 

US: GDP (Q2-21): 6.5% q/q vs 8.4% expected (prior: 6.3% revised from 6.4%)

  • GDP came below expectations: while private capex and consumption were in line with expectations, the negative surprises came from large fall in inventories (-1.13 pp contribution to GDP after -2.6 pp in Q1), fall on public consumption and defense spending ( -0.27 pp contribution), from ongoing negative net exports contribution (-0.44 pp after -1.56 pp in Q1); moreover investment in structure was down by 7% q/q and residential investment down by 9.8% q/q.
  • On the positive side, consumption was up by 11.8% q/q and was strong in all categories (durable goods and services); investment in equipment remained sustained (13% q/q after 14% q/q in Q1) as well as on R&D, up by 10.7% q/q after 15.6% q/q.
  • The sharp negative trend in inventories should revert in the next quarters and is expected to be a net contributor to growth; net trade should also improve on firmer global trade; growth could remain moderate from public spending and contribution for housing could stay slightly negative in next quarters.
  • These data will reshape the expected quarterly growth profile in favor of a firmer Q3 growth but also will cap 2021 GDP growth below 7%y/y and closer to 6-6.5% y/y.

 

US: Pending home sales (June): -1.9% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 8.3% revised from 8%)

  • After large rebound, sales have declined; over 4 districts, sales have declined on 2 districts, reflecting strong rises in prices.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (July): -4.4 as expected (prior: -3.3)

  • Sentiment has slightly deteriorated from the prior month, notably on financial situation and unemployment.
  • Opinions have improved on future economic situation.
  • New variants could be a concern, but economically employment and purchasing power are renewed rising concerns.

 

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (July): 14.6 vs 13 expected (prior: 12.8 revised from 12.7)

  • Business confidence has increased more than expected; opinions have improved on a broad range of components such as production, orders, exports and employment; pressures on prices have slightly eased from the prior month.

 

Eurozone: Service confidence (July): 19.3 as expected (prior: 17.9)

  • Confidence has gained further; views were positive on current demand and employment but were more cautious on future demand.
  • Concerns from new variant and renewed restrictions have probably weighed down on future demand.

 

France: Producer Prices (June): 1.1% m/m (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

  • Prices remained on rising trend; the yearly trend was up by 7.5% y/y after 7.25 y/y the prior month.

 

Germany: CPI (July): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Preliminary data pointed on a still strong rise in prices. Transport, leisure and food prices have shown strong monthly rise.
  • Base effects have pushed the yearly trend up from 2.1% the prior month to 3.1% y/y.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (June): 5.7% vs 5.8% expected (prior: 5.9%)

  • The unemployment ratio has declined more than expected over the month; unemployed have decreased by 91 k over the month after -39 k the prior month, benefiting from wider reopening of the economy.

 

Italy: PPI (June): 1.7% m/m (prior: 1.3%)

  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 10% y/y the prior month to 11% y/y.

 

Spain: Unemployment rate (Q2-21): 15.26% vs 15.1% expected (prior: 15.98%)

  • Unemployment has declined but slightly less than expected.

 

Spain: CPI (July): -1.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Despite monthly fall, preliminary data have shown still rising yearly trend from 2.5% y/y to 2.9% y/y.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (June): 9.5% (prior: 9.1%)

 

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (July): 106.5 (prior: 109.3)

  • Confidence has eased from the prior month on lower opinions on future economic situation.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (July): 129.2 (prior: 125.1)

  • Confidence has increased in retail and manufacturing sector over the month.

 

UK: M4 (June): 6.9% y/y (prior: 7.4% revised from 7.3%)

  • Monetary aggregates growth pace has slowed further on base effect.
  • M4 lending growth has slightly accelerated from 1.1 % y/y the prior month to 1.5% y/y.
星期三 28 七月
Consumers sentiment has turned cautious in France, stable in Germany, while still rising in Italy

US: Wholesale inventories (June): 0.8% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.3%)

  • Inventories have mainly increased on durable goods over the month. In retail sector, inventories were up by 0.3% m/m, but they declined in autos.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (July): -0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Prices have declined over the month, reflecting also the end of the tax break on transactions, while demand remained strong.
  • Yearly trend has also moderated from 13.4% y/y the prior month to 10.5% y/y.

 

France: Consumer confidence (July): 101 vs 102 expected (prior: 103 revised from 102)

  • Sentiment has slightly declined over the month after upward revision to prior month index.
  • The index eased on rising concerns on financial situation and purchasing power.
  • The index remained at a high level, in line with the 2019 level.

 

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Aug.): -0.3 vs 1 expected (prior: -0.3)

  • Sentiment remained stable after a rebound in the prior month; income and business expectations have eased after a rebound in past month.
  • Covid situation could also impact consumer sentiment in France and Germany after relief situation in June.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (July): 116.6 vs 115.5 expected (prior: 115.1)

  • Consumer confidence has increased more than expected, with strong rebound in current situation while expectations have slightly eased from the prior month.
  • The index has increased further to reach the 2018 high level.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (July): 115.7 vs 115.3 expected (prior: 115.1)

  • Sentiment has increased further, and the index is now above the 2017 highs.
  • Current situation has strongly improved on orders, mainly domestic orders, production and employment; outlook was slightly more cautious than the prior month.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (June): -0.3% m/m vs 2.3% expected (prior: 2.4%)

  • Sales have slightly decreased after large rebound in May, notably for durable goods; sales were volatile in Q2 but have driven growth in a rebound in Q2.

 

Norway: Retail sales (June): -0.1% m/m (prior: 5.8%)

  • Sales have slightly corrected, notably on e-commerce and furniture after reopening of services. Sales were strong in May and more globally have driven growth rebound in Q2.
星期二 27 七月
US: weak durable goods orders but rising consumer confidence on labor

US: Durable goods orders (June): 0.8% m/m vs 2.2% expected (prior: 3.2% revised from 2.3%)

  • After upward revisions to past month, data were below expectations over the month; despite a large rebound in non-defense aircraft orders, other sectors have shown a mixed and volatile picture across sectors.
  • Core orders (orders for capital equipment nondefense ex aircraft) were up by 0.5% m/m after upward revision to prior month data (from 0.1% m/m to 0.5% m/m).
  • Shipments were up by 1% m/m after 0.4% m/m (core orders up by 0.6% after 0.9% m/m); inventories were up by 0.9% m/m (same pace the prior month; up by 0.5% m/m after 1% m/m for core orders).

 

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (May): 16.99% y/y (prior: 15.01%)

  • Monthly changes remained sustained :1.81% m/m after 1.66% m/m the prior month. Prices have increased in all regions.
  • Strong rise in prices are responsible for weakening sales as seen in other housing data recently.

 

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (July): 27 vs 20 expected (prior: 22)

  • The index has improved on both current situation and 6-month expectations.
  • Opinions have improved on shipments, capex and particularly on labor and wages on both current situation and expectations; on the opposite, opinions on orders have declined in the two index and still concerns on constraints.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (July): 129.1 vs 123.8 expected (prior: 128.9 revised from 127.3)

  • Consumer sentiment has rebounded, driven by more positive views on current situation, while expectations were barely unchanged from the prior month. The index was back on its 2019 level.
  • Current situation has improved on labor conditions with current reopening and re-hiring trend.
  • Expectations on future economic situation has marginally eased from the prior month, but views on future employment and income have slightly increased.
  • Willingness to spend has increased after volatile index in the past two months; it has increased for all main items (housing, cars and large items) from the prior month.
  • Inflation expectations (12 M) were quite stable at 6.6% y/y from prior month and after the rise seen in May.
  • Views on labor have improved significantly despite volatile weekly jobless claims.

 

Eurozone: M3 (June): 8.3% y/y vs 8.2% expected (prior: 8.5% revised from 8.4%)

  • Growth pace has slightly moderated from the prior month. M1 growth pace remained sustained at 11.7% after 11.6% y/y the prior month.
  • Loans to the private sector was up by 3% y/y after 2.8% y/y the prior month; demand for credit from firms has strengthened thanks to accommodative monetary policy and also for credit benefiting from the public guarantee scheme. Otherwise, housing credit remained on sustained pace with still high demand from households.

 

Brazil: Current account (June): 2791 M$ vs 3800 M$ expected (prior: 3141 M$ revised from 3840 M$)

  • Current account surplus has weakened from the prior month as well as foreign direct investment (from 1598 M USD the prior month to 174 M USD).
星期一 26 七月
Weakening German IFO business confidence; sharp fall in US new home sales

US: New home sales (June): 676k vs 796k expected (prior: 724k revised from 769k)

  • Data have shown a strong decline over the month and were back to 2019 level.
  • All districts (4), except one, have shown a monthly decline in sales; inventories were on the rise over the month.
  • Prices have declined on a monthly basis but remained on positive but moderating yearly trend (6% y/y for median prices; 12% y/y for average prices).

 

Germany: IFO (July): 100.8 vs 102.5 expected (prior: 101.7 revised from 101.8)

  • Business sentiment has declined from the prior month, contrary to expectations and to latest flash PMI.
  • Sentiment on current situation has increased further from the prior month, while expectations were back to their April level.
  • Confidence has declined the most over the month in services, reflecting rising worries from new variant and potential new restrictions or constraints to vaccine; sentiment has also weakened in trade.
  • Confidence has slightly decreased in manufacturing sector from the prior month, as constraints on supply chain remained active.
  • Sentiment has increased in construction.
  • Momentum should moderate after strong beginning of Q3, related to still constraints in industry and uncertainties on new variant. The index has decreased but remained high.

 

Spain: PPI (June): 2.2% m/m (prior: 1.6%)

  • Prices remained sustained, driven up by energy, basic metal and also some manufacturing prices.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 15.2% y/y the prior month to 15.4% y/y.

 

Brazil: Consumer confidence (July): 82.2 (prior: 80.9)

  • The index has regained after weakening period and it recovered to level seen in 2020, which remained below the 2019 levels.
  • Current sentiment remained cautious, but expectations have increased from the prior month.

 

Turkey: Industrial confidence (July): 112.1 (prior: 109.8)

  • Sentiment has increased after it has evolved in a narrow range in the past months.
  • Opinions were better oriented on orders, employment, capex and exports, while views remained a bit cautious on production.
Read more

Institutional clients

With a team of more than 200 people, UBP Asset Management has built an on-the-ground presence in the world’s major markets through organic growth and selected partnerships.

Our fund range

Funds

View all our funds.

洞见 27.07.2021

Japan: Lukewarm Olympics, consumption to recover in H2

Asia Macro - The Olympics will take place despite the State of Emergency (SOE) being extended until August 23. International spectators have been banned and consumer sentiment remains subdued, with few people supporting the event.