每日宏观动态
星期四, 四月 23
Composite PMIs increased in the US and UK but slipped in the eurozone
US: Initial jobless claims (Apr 18): 214k vs 210k expected (prior: 208k revised from 207k)
- Jobless claims remain low and broadly steady, running below last year’s levels with little change between the survey weeks for the March and April payroll reports.
- Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, edged up for a second week, from a two-year low of 1.787m to 1.821m, but still sit below the 1.840m recorded in the comparable week a year ago.
US: Services PMI (Apr P): 51.3 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 49.8)
- New business edged up but stayed below the pace of the past two years as clients balked at affordability.
- Costs surged at the fastest rate since December, prompting the steepest rise in selling prices in more than 3 years. Employment ticked higher. The outlook improved modestly on the month, yet remains well below last year’s levels.
- The composite index rose from 50.3 to 52.0, beating expectations of 50.6.
US: Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): 54.0 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 52.3)
- Manufacturing climbed to a cycle peak, though some of the heat looks artificial, stoked by pre‑emptive buying ahead of price rises and shortages.
- Output hit a four‑year high; new orders grew at fastest since May 2022; and input inventories rose at the quickest pace since January. Supplier lead times lengthened the most since August 2022 less a sign of strong demand than Middle East related disruptions. The sole negative point: employment slipped for the first time since July 2025.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): 52.2 vs 50.9 expected (prior: 51.6)
- Manufacturing outperformed in April, expanding at its fastest since May 2022 and outpacing services, with gains across new orders, output and purchasing.
- But the burst looks fragile: much of the strength reflects inventory front‑loading ahead of war‑related price rises and looming supply snags, rather than sturdier demand.
- Inflation pressures intensified and business confidence slid to a 17‑month low, signs of renewed caution.
- Country split: Germany disappointed (51.2 vs 51.4 expected), while France beat forecasts with its strongest reading since 2022 (52.8 vs 49.5).
Eurozone: Services PMI (Apr P): 47.4 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 50.2)
- The Middle East conflict is increasingly weighing on the euro area. Services have slipped into contraction, revealing weaker demand than in manufacturing as households pare back discretionary spending ahead of a slowdown, while industry gets a temporary boost from stockpiling.
- The damage is broad-based. Germany’s reading fell to 46.9 (vs 50.4 expected) and France’s to 46.5 (vs 48.5), underscoring deterioration across the bloc’s largest economies.
- The composite index decreased from 50.7 to 48.6, below expectations of 50.1.
UK: Services PMI (Apr P): 52.0 vs 50.0 expected (prior: 50.5)
- UK private services sector output rebounded in April, but a fresh surge in costs dented optimism.
- Business activity growth picked up from March’s 11-month low but new orders slipped marginally, pointing to brittle demand as global uncertainty and the Middle East conflict stoke inflation.
- Price pressures intensified sharply. Input costs rose at the fastest since the data began in 1996, driven by dearer fuel and strong wage growth; firms lifted selling prices in response. Business sentiment weakened as geopolitics weighed on costs, demand and investment.
- The composite index rose from 50.3 to 52.0, beating expectations of 49.8.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Apr P): 53.6 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 51.0)
- Production snapped back and new orders ticked up as customers accelerated purchases and built safety stocks, bracing for rising prices and potential shortages. Pricing pressures intensified: input costs and selling prices surged on dearer raw materials and transport.
- Yet sentiment soured. Firms said that inflation, and geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains, sap consumer confidence and chill investment.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Apr): -25 as expected (prior: -21)
- UK consumer confidence fell to lowest since October 2023, in line with expectations.
星期三, 四月 22
UK Inflation on the rise due to energy and transport
UK: CPI (March): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Inflation has surged due to a strong rise in energy-fuels prices (11% m/m); related rises were also seen in industrial goods (1.1% m/m) and, within services, in transport and package holidays. Separately, prices of clothes have also seasonally regained over the month. Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% y/y prior month, and services up by 4.5% y/y (4.3% y/y prior month). Core inflation has marginally decreased from 3.2% to 3.1% y/y.
- Under current environment, inflation should accelerate further in April, and to trend close to 4% y/y next months.
UK: PPI Input prices (March): 4.4% m/m vs 3.0% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)
- Prices of raw materials have surged over the month.
- Yearly trend has rebounded from 0.7% y/y prior month to 5.4% y/y.
UK: PPI Output prices (March): 0.9% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: -0.5%)
- Prices of energy and food have rebounded over the month.
- Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (March): 9.2% vs 8.5% expected (prior: 8.4%)
- Unemployed has strongly rebounded over the month.
Turkey: Consumer confidence (April): 85.5 (prior: 85)
- Consumer confidence has slightly regained over the month; opinions have improved on future personal financial situation and were more positive on unemployment; nevertheless, confidence has eroded about future economic situation.
星期二, 四月 21
US retail sales stronger than expected partly due to gasoline and higher prices
US: Retail sales (March): 1.7% m/m vs 1.4% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)
- Sales were boosted by gasoline stations (15.5% m/m); sales data are in value terms, driven by both volumes and price changes.
- Sales were also stronger in value terms for food, furniture, electronics, building materials and internet sales.
- Core sales (sales ex autos, building materials, food and gasoline) were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior week. Prior months data were also revised up.
- Sales at face value were stronger than expected and pointed to a resilient consumer, but these nominal data also incorporated part of the rise in prices over the month.
US: Business inventories (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.1%)
- Rises in inventories were strong in wholesalers, up by 0.8% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month); total sales were up by 1.7% m/m, driven by activity in the wholesale sector.
US: Pending home sales (March): 1.5% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 2.5% revised from 1.8%)
- Pending sales were mixed over the month, with two districts down over the month and two districts up.
Germany: Zew (April): -73.7 vs -70.5 expected (prior: -62.9)
- Sentiment among the financial community has sharply declined over the month; expectations have also sharply decreased over the month, back to the lows seen in 2025.
- By sector, opinions have increased for banks, insurance, utilities and IT, while they declined for autos, steel, chemical and retail sectors.
Poland: Industrial production (March): 17.2% m/m vs 11.4% expected (prior: 2.5% revised from 2.7%)
- Activity has rebounded further over the month; while production in utility was down, production has rebounded for the second month in all other sectors.
Switzerland: M3 (March): 4.4% y/y (prior: 4.8% revised from 4.9%)
- M1 was up by 16.7% y/y after 19.3% y/y the prior month; M2 was up by 11.6% y/y after 13.6% y/y prior month.
- Time deposits continued to decline, while pace of growth of saving deposits has slowed down at 2.0% y/y after 2.9% y/y the prior month.
Switzerland: Trade balance (March): 2.7 Bn CHF (prior: 4.4Bn)
- Trade surplus has decreased over the month.
- Real exports were down by 3.4% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior week); real imports up by 3.1% m/m (-5.1% m/m prior month).
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Feb.): 4.9% vs 5.2% expected (prior: 5.2%)
- Unemployment rate has decreased while claimant count has slightly increased from 4.3% prior month to 4.4%.
- Jobless claims have increased by 26.8 k after 17.1 k prior month and payrolls decreased by 11k after -6 k the prior month.
- Part-time jobs have decreased over the month; vacancies remained on a downward trend.
- The decline in unemployment ratio is largely due to lower participation while signals remained in favor of a weakening trend in labor.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Feb.): 3.8% y/y vs 3.6% expected (prior: 4.1% revised from 3.9%)
- Wage growth has slowed down in all sectors over the month.
星期一, 四月 20
German PPI on the rise due to energy
Germany: PPI (March): 2.5% m/m vs 1.4% expected (prior: -0.5%)
- Energy prices (fuels, heating oil, gas and electricity prices) have surged over the month, while PPI ex-energy was up by 0.4% m/m.
- Yearly trend has increased from -3.3% y/y prior month to -0.2% y/y.
星期四, 四月 16
US business confidence in rebound (Philly fed); higher eurozone inflation with energy prices
US: Initial jobless claims (April 11): 207k vs 213k expected (prior: 218k revised from 219k)
- Continuing claims: 1818 k after 1787 k prior week.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (April): 26.7 vs 10 expected (prior: 18.1)
- Business sentiment has strongly rebounded from the prior month.
- On current situation, sentiment has rebounded on new orders, shipments and delivery time has decreased; on the negative side, views on employment have decreased and prices paid and received have increased further.
- The 6-M index was just slightly more positive, thanks to higher capex while opinions have decreased on new orders, employment and prices paid.
US: Industrial production (March): -0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.2%)
- Manufacturing production was down by 0.1% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.
- By sector, production was down over the month in autos, machinery and utilities.
Eurozone: CPI (March): 1.3% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 0.6%)
- Final data were higher than initially estimated.
- The monthly rebound was due to higher energy prices (7% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month) and rising good prices (1.8% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month). Services were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.8% m/m in Feb., and food prices up by 0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m in Feb.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.9% to 2.6% y/y due to energy prices (5.1% y/y after -3.1% y/y); core prices remained contained (2.3% y/y after 2.4% y/y prior month) thanks to marginal decline in services (3.2% y/y after 3.4% y/y in Feb.).
- Upside risks on inflation remained in place for April data, while future inflation pattern depends on ongoing negotiations in the Middle East.
Italy: CPI (March): 1.7% m/m vs 1.6% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Inflation has rebounded due to higher energy-transport prices and to a seasonal rebound in prices of clothes. Prices of hotels-restaurants have declined over the month, after the rises due to Olympic Games.
- Yearly trend has regained from 1.5% y/y to 1.6% y/y.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (March): 0.2% m/m (prior: -0.3%)
- Import prices have increased by 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and have less declined on yearly trend: -3.2% y/y after -3.5% y/y prior month.
- Producer prices were up by 0.1% m/m (-0.5% m/m prior month) and remained in negative territory at -2.4% y/y (-2.3% y/y prior month).
UK: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Production was driven higher by energy (2.2% m/m) and construction (1.0% m/m) while manufacturing activity was down by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).
- Within manufacturing sector, production of non-durable and intermediate goods has contracted over the month.
- Separately, services were up by 0.5% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month) thanks to transport-trade, finance and hotels-leisure.