每日宏观动态

US: Initial jobless claims (Spet.5): 206k vs 205k expected (prior: 207k revised from 206k)

• Continuing claims: 1774 k after 1775 k prior week.

US: PPI (Aug.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

• Core PPI were up by 0.3% m/m as expected after 0.4% m/m prior month.
• Prices were mainly driven by the rise in energy prices (4.2% m/m after -1.8% m/m prior month.
• Services were up by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month); prices of transport-warehousing were up by 2.3% m/m after -1.1% m/m prior month, and prices for airfares were up by 4.2% m/m.
• Rises in good sector were coming from chemicals, non-metals, electronic components and motor parts.
• Yearly trend has increased from 4.8% y/y to 5.4 % y/y (5.3% y/y expected), while core PPI remained unchanged at 4.7% y/y.
• Energy, related sectors and some imported goods were on the rise over the month; core inflation remain limited and final data were coming close to expectations; nevertheless, there were no positive surprises to reassure markets and give further comfort to the Fed before the release of CPI tomorrow.

US: Existing home sales (Aug.): 3.98M as expected (prior: 4.06M)

• Sales were down by 2% m/m; the decrease concerned both single-family and multi-family houses.
• Inventories were on the rise over the month.
• Yearly prices were up by 1.6% y/y (2.0% y/y the prior month).

US: Wholesale inventories (July): 1.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• The rebound in inventories was driven by strong rise for computers. Sales were up by 0.8% m/m, also driven by sales of computers.

ECB meeting: a 25 bp rise in key rates as expected

• The ECB has raised by 25 bp its major key rates: 2.50% on deposit facility rate, 2.65% on main refinancing rate and 2.90% on marginal lending facility.
• The statement pointed to resilient growth, with upward revisions to scenario, but associated with a high inflation. The ECB reiterated large uncertainties that exist and downside risks on growth and upside risks on inflation (different scenarios on commodities, growth and inflation updated).
• Conflict in the Middle East maintains pressures on inflation which is expected to remain above target for a longer period of time; inflation projections were unchanged for 2026 (3.0% y/y) but have been revised up for 2027 (from 2.3% to 2.5%) and 2028 (from 2.0% to 2.1% y/y).
• The growth outlook was revised up from 0.8% to 0.9% on 2026, from 1.2% to 1.4% for 2027 and remained unchanged at 1.5% for 2028.
• The ECB mentioned its policy is “well positioned” and future decisions to be taken meeting by meeting, being data depended, with no pre-commitment on rates, as said in prior meetings.
• Using the reference “well positioned” to characterize the policy was already used in the past and was associated with a period of wait and see stance from the bank on key rates.
• The statement remined, ironically or not, that a TPI (Transmission Protection Instrument) procedure exists to help States that faces difficult conditions on funding markets.
• From Q&A session:
• Ms Lagarde takes some distance to money markets pricing on future rate path: She remined the energy shock is a supply shock, and decisions on rates are related to current inflation, inflation outlook, risks, core inflation and transmission of policy. She indirectly pointed to separate views from tight views on money markets.
• She focused on that the longer the conflict lasts, maintaining pressures on inflation, the higher is the probability to see inflation higher for longer and to see a possible transmission to other sectors (goods and services), notably if economy stays resilient.
• She said that any debt cancel is “a bad idea”, and contrary to existing treaties adopted by euro members.
• She reiterates that she will stay at the BCE for the time being.
• To conclude: the ECB has now a hawkish bias, but it could stay patient.

Germany: CPI (Aug.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Inflation has been confirmed up by 0.2% m/m over the month.
• Monthly rebound of oil prices, household energy and clothes, after two months of decline, have driven inflation higher.
• Yearly trend was confirmed up by 2.9% y/y after 2.8% y/y the prior month.

Italy: Industrial production (July): 0.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1.0%)

• Industrial activity has strongly rebounded for consumer goods (up by 2.1% m/m after -0.5% m/m prior month).
• Activity was up by 0.2% m/m for capital goods and up by 0.5% m/m for intermediate goods.
• Trajectory on industrial activity remained highly volatile.

Spain: Industrial production (July): 0.6% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.7%)

• Production has rebounded over the month but remained highly volatile.
• The rebound was driven by non-durable consumer goods and capital goods while energy was modestly up, and intermediate production has contracted over the month.

Norway: CPI (Aug.): -0.3% m/m (prior: 1%)

• Prices of food, clothes, household goods and transport were down over the month. Core inflation was down by 0.5% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.3% y/y and core inflation from 2.7% y/y to 3.0% y/these data maintain pressure on central bank.

Sweden: Industrial production (July): 0% m/m (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Total production was flat over the month due to falling industrial activity (-3.6% m/m after -0.7% m/m prior month, while services were up by 1.8% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month).

UK: RICS house price balance (Aug.): -28% vs -30% expected (prior: -29% revised from -30%)

• Balance of sentiment was less negative than feared over the month.
• Opinions were less negative about sales, pending sales and future prices from the prior month.

Turkey: Industrial production (July): -1% m/m (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Industrial activity has decreased over the month; all sectors were down: energy, mining and manufacturing (-0.8% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month).

France: Industrial production (July): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 0.8% m/m after -1.0% m/m prior month.
• Activity was up for refineries, mining and pharma but sharply down over the month for transport and chemical sectors.

Norway: PPI incl. Oil (Aug.): 4.7% m/m (prior: 8.9%)

• Yearly trend has accelerated from 23.4% y/y prior month to 30.1% y/y.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Aug.): 98.7 vs 99.3 expected (prior: 99.8)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased from the prior month, but the index remained at a high level.
• Opinions have slightly decreased over the month about economic outlook, hirings and capex.
• Views remained stable on prices, after slower trend since June.

Germany: Trade Balance (July): 21.3bn EUR vs 15.8bn expected (prior: 15.3bn revised from 15.4bn)

• Imports have declined by 5.7% m/m (4.5% m/m prior month), but exports have decreased by 0.8% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month) due to falling exports to Eurozone and China.

Eurozone: GDP (2Q T): 0.6% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• Eurozone growth in the second quarter came in stronger than expected on the third estimate, flattered by a hefty upward revision to Ireland’s figures driven by multinationals. Strip out Ireland’s volatility, and GDP still rose an estimated 0.27%, a solid showing given the drag from the energy shock.
• The release also showed compensation per employee easing to 3.3% y/y, down from 3.5% in Q1. That cooling in wage growth points to waning second‑round inflation pressures and argues for less monetary tightening after this week’s hike.