每日宏观动态
星期四, 七月 16
US: sustained core retail sales, in line with expectations
US: Philadelphia Fed. (July): 41.4 vs 12.5 expected (prior: 10.3)
- The index was back to the highs seen in 2021.
- On current conditions, sentiment has increased for all major items: new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and delivery time (Hormuz constraints) and employment; prices paid and received have also increased further.
- The 6-month index has decreased from very high level over the prior two months, but it remained high. Opinions on 6 months have decreased for all major items, including prices, but not for unfilled orders and delivery time.
US: Initial jobless claims (July 11): 208k vs 217k expected (prior: 216k revised from 215k)
- Continuing claims: 1805 k after 1821 k the prior week.
US: Retail sales (June): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)
- Sales were down for gasoline (-5.3% m/m after 2.6% m/m prior month) due to price effects; on the opposite, sales were strong again for autos and also sustained for sport and internet sales.
- Core sales, sales ex food, building materials, autos and gasoline, were up by 0.5% m/m (as expected) and prior month data were revised from 0.7% to 0.8% m/m.
- Consumers have benefited from falling gasoline prices; upside risks remain on oil prices, but resilience of consumers should prevail.
US: NAHB housing market index (July): 34 vs 35 expected (prior: 36 revised from 35)
- Sentiment in housing has decreased from the prior month; opinions have decreased on current sales, future sales and new demand,
US: Pending home sales (June): -5.4% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 3.5% revised from 3.8%)
- Sales have decreased in all the four districts.
US: Business inventories (May): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)
- Inventories have increased particularly for autos; total sales were sustained, up by 2.1% m/m after 1.4% m/m prior month.
Italy: CPI (June): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Over the month, prices for food and education were down, while costs have increased for housing-utilities and also for hotels and restaurants for the third month.
- Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.7% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y.
UK: Industrial production (May): -0.5% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0%)
- Manufacturing production was up by 0.1% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month), but activity was contrasted at sector level: production was up for investment and consumer goods, while it decreased for intermediate and energy sectors.
- In parallel, activity was down in mining and oil-gas sectors over the month.
- Construction was down by 0.8% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month). Services were up by 0.3% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month), with R&D in medical sector.
- Index for monthly GDP was up by 0.1% m/m (-0.1% prior month) thanks to services.
星期三, 七月 15
US: improving business confidence and declining PPIs
US: Empire manufacturing (July): 15.6 vs 9.2 expected (prior: 5.7)
- Business sentiment has strongly rebounded from the prior month; opinions have increased on new orders, shipments, employment and also on delivery time; prices (paid and received) have decreased from the prior month.
- The 6-month index has eased due to lower prices, but new orders have increased further form the prior month.
US: PPI (June): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 1.1%)
- Prices of energy have decreased by 6.4% m/m after 8.4% m/m prior month, with falling crude oil prices. Food prices were down by 0.6% m/m after 0.5% m/m.
- Services were up by 0.2% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month; within service, the rise was centered on trade costs up by 0.4% m/m.
- Prices were lower than expected and prior month data were also revised lower.
- Yearly trend has declined from 6% y/y to 5.5% y/y; core inflation (excluding energy, food and trade sectors) remained stable at 5.1% y/y.
Eurozone: Industrial production (May): -0.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)
- Industrial activity has reversed after a rebound the prior month. By sector, production has regained for energy and capital goods after a fall the prior month, while production was down in durable consumer goods and intermediate goods over the month.
Spain: CPI (June): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Final data confirmed a still sustained monthly rise, due to large rebound in housing, recreation, hotels, and insurance costs while prices for clothes and transport have declined over the month.
- Yearly trend remained stable at 3.6% y/y.
Poland: CPI (June): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: -0.3%)
- Final data confirmed second decline in inflation; monthly changes have decreased for fuel-energy, transport, food and clothes; on the opposite, prices were up for recreation and insurance sectors.
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y the prior month to 2.5% y/y.
Sweden: CPI (June): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9%)
- Prices have increased further for culture-leisure and insurance sectors, while they declined for food, transport, household goods and transport. Core inflation was up by 0.6% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has declined from 1.5% y/y prior month to 1.3% y/y. Core inflation decrease from 0.5% y/y to 0.4% y/y.
星期二, 七月 14
US: rising business sentiment (NFIB) and declining inflation
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (June): 97.4 vs 95.7 expected (prior: 95.3)
- Business sentiment has rebounded more than expected over the month, after a decreasing trend over past quarters.
- Sentiment has improved on economic outlook, future sales, jobs openings and hirings.
- Credit conditions constraints were on the rise over the month; selling prices are expected to rise further.
US: CPI (June): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Core inflation remained flat over the month (0.2% m/m expected) after 0.2% m/m prior month.
- Inflation has benefited from falling energy prices and from more contained than expected in several sectors.
- Energy prices were down by 5.7% m/m (3.9%m/m prior month) due to falling gasoline prices ( -9.7% m/m after 7% m/m prior month).
- Food prices were up by 0.2% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month). Good prices have decreased by 0.1% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month), and services remained flat globally over the month.
- Within services, rents were up by modest 0.1% m/m, and recreation up by 0.3% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend in headline inflation has declined from 4.2% y/y to 3.5% y/y (3.8% y/y expected) and core inflation from 2.9% y/y to 2.6% y/y (2.8% y/y expected).
- Headline inflation has peaked thanks to energy, but risks could rise again with ongoing stress on oil prices, but these data give more time to Warsh to convince inflation to be only transitory.
Germany: Wholesale price (June): -0.7% m/m (prior: -0.6%)
- Yearly trend has declined from 5.9% y/y prior month to 4.9% y/y.
Norway: PPI incl. Oil (June): -7.1% m/m (prior: -1.8%)
- Yearly trend has declined from 24% y/y prior month to 14.9% y/y.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (June): -0.3% m/m (prior: -0.4%)
- Import prices were down by 0.7% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month; producer prices were down by 0.8% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has declined further at -2.2% y/y after -1.8% y/y prior month; import prices were down by 0.8% y/y (-0.2% y/y prior month) and producer prices down by 2.7% y/y (-2.5% y/y prior month).
星期一, 七月 13
Turkish current account has improved in May, but remained fragile
Norway: Industrial production (May): -1% m/m (prior: 0.6%)
- Manufacturing production was up by 0.7% m/m after -0.6% m/m the prior month, while oil-extraction activity was down by 2.6% m/m.
- Within manufacturing, production has rebounded for electricity and gas, and to a lesser extend food and machinery.
Turkey: Current account (May): -1.46bn USD vs -1bn expected (prior: -5.62bn revised from -5.7bn)
- Current account position has improved from the prior month thanks to lower imports and rising surplus on services.
- Balance of energy has deteriorated while improvement was seen on goods and gold. Net inflows from FDI and portfolios were down by USD 1.8 bn from the prior month.
- Official reservices have declined by USD 3.3 bn after USD +12 bn the prior month.
星期五, 七月 10
Declining June inflation in France and Germany
France: CPI (June): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Final data confirmed the monthly fall of inflation; the move was led by declining energy prices (oil prices: -7% m/m) and also food prices. Services were up by 0.5% m/m, due to transport, communication and leisure.
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.8% y/y to 2.0% y/y.
Germany: CPI (June): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Final data confirmed the monthly fall on inflation; the driver was mainly energy (oil prices down by 5.8% m/m after -7.2% m/m prior month), and also by the fall of prices of food and clothes.
- The yearly trend has declined from 2.7% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y.
Italy: Industrial production (May): -0.3% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)
- Production has contracted after the rebound the prior month.
- Activity was negative over the month in all sectors except energy; the largest monthly fall was seen in consumer durable goods, down by 2.5% m/m after +2.9% m/m the prior month.
Norway: CPI (June): -0.2% m/m (prior: 0.2%)
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.7% y/y; no details at sector level were available.
Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (June): -35.8 vs -35 expected (prior: -38.1)
- Consumer confidence has continued to improve after large fall seen past March; sentiment has improved on economic outlook, while progress remained limited about future purchases.
Turkey: Industrial production (May): -2.9% m/m (prior: 3.8% revised from 3.7%)
- Production in manufacturing was down by 3.3% m/m after 4.5% m/m the prior month; only the mining sector was positive in terms of activity over the month.