每日宏观动态

France: CPI (June): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Final data confirmed a rebound in monthly inflation after large contraction the prior month due to energy prices.
• While food prices declined over the month, a large monthly rebound was seen in energy (1.9% m/m after -1.7% prior month), and also in transport, clothes and communication sectors.
• Yearly trend was up by 0.9% y/y after 0.6% y/y prior month.

UK: Industrial production (May): -0.9% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 1% m/m after -0.7% m/m the prior month; production of intermediate, energy and non-durable consumer goods was down over the month.
• Separately, services were just up by 0.1% m/m (-0.3% m/m the prior month); proxy for GDP was also down by 0.1% m/m after -0.3% m/m the prior month.
• After a strong rebound in Q1-25 (0.7%q), GDP should slow down on a quarterly basis, reflecting tariffs impact and weaker industrial activity.

Germany: Wholesale price (June): 0.2% m/m (prior: -0.3%)

• Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.4% y/y prior month to 0.9% y/y.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (June): -32.2 vs -35 expected (prior: -36.5)

• Consumer sentiment has improved on financial situation and about major purchases over the month. Opinions were less negative on economic situation.

Turkey: Current account (May): -0.68bn USD vs -0.9bn expected (prior: -7.9bn revised from -7.86bn)

• Rising surplus in services has reduced current account deficit over the month.
• Official reserves have increased by USD 13.46 bn after USD -24.9 bn the prior month.

US: Initial jobless claims (July 5): 227k vs 235k expected (prior: 232k revised from 233k)

• Continuing claims: 1965 k after 1955k the prior week.

Germany: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Final data confirmed moderation in inflation; monthly prices have decreased for food, clothes and oil prices while they were up for leisure and other goods.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.1% y/y the prior month to 2.0%y/y.

Italy: Industrial production (May): -0.7% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)

• Industrial activity has reversed after a strong rebound the prior month.
• Except capital goods, which remained flat over the month, all other sectors were down over the month; notably, consumer durable goods were down by 2.2% m/m after 2.5% m/m the prior month.

Norway: CPI (June): 0.2% m/m (prior: 0.4%)

• Picture was mixed over the month; prices have declined for clothes, housing and household goods but regained for transport, food and tourism services. Core inflation was up by 0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 3% y/y over the month; core inflation has regained from 2.8% y/y the prior month to 3.1% y/y.

Sweden: Retail sales (May): -1.2% m/m (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

• Household consumption has weakened on lower confidence and weakening labor.

Sweden: Industrial production (May): -0.1% m/m (prior: 1.8% revised from 2.3%)

• Orders were down by 1.04% m/m after -6.5% m/m prior month. On production, construction was weak while manufacturing sector was up by 0.6% m/m.
• Separately, services were down by 0.5% m/m after 1.7% m/m prior month.

UK: RICS house price balance (June): -7% vs -9% expected (prior: -7% revised from -8%)

• Balance of opinions remained depressed due to ongoing negative views on prices while prospects for future sales have improved over the month.

Turkey: Industrial production (May): 3.1% m/m (prior: -3.2% revised from -3.1%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded after the fall the prior month; both manufacturing and mining sectors have rebounded in parallel over the month.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Jun): 98.6 as expected (prior: 98.6)

• Sentiment among US small businesses dipped slightly in June, as concerns over taxes persisted during the month of June.
• The decline was primarily due to rising inventories: owners now see stockpiles as too high. Compagnies have struggled to manage inventories with the administration's rapidly changing policies on tariffs.
• Moreover, the falling outlook for better conditions drove the headline number lower.

Germany: Trade Balance (May): 18.4bn EUR vs 15.5bn expected (prior: 15.7bn revised from 14.6bn)

• Germany's trade surplus expanded. This growth occurred as exports declined less sharply than imports. Exports dropped by 1.4% m/m to a four-month low of €129.4 bn, a steeper fall than the anticipated 0.2%, largely due to decreased sales to the US and China.
• Exports to the US plummeted by 7.7%, hitting their lowest point since March 2022, impacted by tariffs from the Trump administration. Meanwhile, imports fell by 3.8% to a five-month low of €111.1 bn, reversing April's revised 2.2% increase and exceeding forecasts of a 0.9% decline. The reduction was mainly driven by decreased imports from both EU countries (-3.6%) and non-EU countries (-4.1%).

Eurozone: Retail sales (May): -0.7% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• Y/y: 1.8% vs 1.4% expected (prior: 2.7% revised from 2.3%)
• April's data was revised higher so that the yearly change is better than expected. Encouragingly as well, the three-month/three-month annualised growth rate is slightly higher at 2.2%.

Germany: Industrial production (May): 1.2% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -1.6% revised from -1.4%)

• IP y/y: 1.0% vs -0.3% expected (prior: -2.1% revised from -1.8%)
• Despite last Friday’s weak factory sales data, industrial production was robust in May so that the April-May average is now 0.7% annualised above the Q1 level for total IP (which includes construction) and 2.4% annualised higher for manufacturing.