每日宏观动态

US: CPI (May): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Inflation came in line with expectations, and core inflation was just below expectations up by 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% m/m expected (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Inflation remained mainly driven by energy prices, up by 3.9% m/m (3.8% m/m prior month), due to gasoline prices up by 7% m/m (5.4% m/m prior month).
• Good prices were down by 0.1% m/m after 0% prior month; the sector offered limited monthly changes at sub-sector level; on note: the modest rise in apparels (now less impacted by tariffs), balanced by decreasing prices of cars.
• Services were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.5% m/m; rents have moderated, up by 0.3% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month; transport costs have declined, except airfares up by 2.7% m/m (2.8% m/m prior month); other services were on the rise: medical, recreation, education-communication and personal services (finance).
• Yearly trend was in line with expectations with headline up by 4.20% after 3.8% and core inflation modestly up to 2.9% y/y after 2.8%y/y.
• Inflation has now exceeded 4% y/y as expected in our scenario, but spillover to the other sectors remained limited and core inflation stayed just below 3%; nevertheless, many sub sectors in services were on the rise over the month and could be under watch as yearly trend in services was up by 3.4% y/y (3.3% y/y prior month).

Italy: Industrial production (April): 0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)

• Production remains on a positive and sustained trend for capital goods and also on intermediate goods; On the opposite, production of consumer goods has decreased further, showing regular monthly declines over the past 6 months.
• Production of energy has also contracted over the past 3 months.

Norway: CPI (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Inflation data was mixed over the month; prices of transport and food have decreased over the month, while household goods, communication and restaurants-hotels were on the rise. Some tax cuts have helped to moderate inflation pressures. Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined on headline inflation from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.1% y/y, while core inflation has accelerated from 3.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y.

Sweden: Industrial production (April): 1.7% m/m (prior: 0.8% revised from 1.1%)

• Production has rebounded in industry, up by 4.2% m/m after -1.6% m/m prior month; services were up by 0.2% m/m after 2.2% m/m prior month.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (May): 95.3 vs 96 expected (prior: 95.9)

• Business sentiment has marginally decreased over the month, contrary to consensus expectations.
• Sentiment came slightly lower than prior month on future economic but remained stable on employment.
• While costs are under pressure, selling prices were on the rise.
• Disruption in supply chain was also mentioned as a constraint.

US: Trade balance (April): -55.9 bn USD vs -56.1 bn expected (prior: -56.6 bn revised from -60.3 bn)

• Exports were up by 2.6% m/m after 2.0% m/m prior month and imports up by 2% m/m after 2.3% m/m prior month.
• Exports were dynamic for capital and consumer goods; imports were up for capital goods and down over the month in other sectors.
• The surplus in oil has increased over the month and helped to cover rising imports (Ai related).

US: Existing home sales (May): 4.17M vs 4.07M expected (prior: 4.04M revised from 4.02M)

• Sales have rebounded over the month driven by higher sales of single-family houses.
• Prices have increased to 1.9% y/y (0.9% y/y prior month).
• Interesting to note that the share of first buyers have increased over the month.

US: Wholesale inventories (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Inventories have increased in all various segments; total sales were up by 2.0% m/m, driven higher by sales of computers.

Germany: Industrial production (April): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.7%)

• Manufacturing production was flat over the month after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Production has decreased for capital goods while it was up for intermediate and consumer goods over the month.

Germany: Trade Balance (April): 14.5bn EUR vs 15.9bn expected (prior: 14.7bn revised from 14.3bn)

• Exports were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month; imports were up by 1.2% m/m after 4.5% m/m prior month.
• Exports were the most dynamic to Europe non-eurozone (up by 3% m/m), while they were up by 1.8% m/m to US and down by 3.5% m/m to China.

Germany: Factory orders (April): -3.8% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 4.5% revised from 5%)

• Orders have reversed after the large rebound seen the prior month.
• Both foreign and domestic orders have contracted over the month, except domestic orders on consumers.
• By sector, orders were up for intermediate goods (metals) and non-durable consumer goods, but they have contracted for equipment and durable consumer goods.

US: Non-farm payrolls (May): 172k vs 88k expected (prior: 179k revised from 115k)

• Payrolls were higher than expected and prior month data were strongly revised up. After revised data, payrolls have marginally decreased from the prior month.
• Job creations were more positive than in prior month for manufacturing and construction and total creations in goods sectors were up by 28 k after 14 k prior month, and this could be related to improving momentum in PMI manufacturing.
• Creations in services have decreased from the prior month (92 k after 163 k prior month) and the picture was more contrasted at sub-sector level.
• Jobs have contracted for trade-transport, information and business services, but were in rebound for leisure (70 k after 30 k), government (52 k after 2 k) and remained positive in education-health (40 k after 54 k).
• Unemployment ratio remained stable at 4.3% as expected; wage growth was up by 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month), but the yearly trend has declined from 3.6% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.
• A firmer activity has created more jobs, and with a relatively more positive momentum in goods than in services. Labor is no more a concern for the Fed and stable unemployment ratio and moderate wage growth should give some reassure the Fed and help to concentrate on inflation risks.

France: Industrial production (April): 0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.4% m/m after 1.3% m/m prior month.
• Production in capital goods and intermediate goods was up by 0.7% m/m while energy and consumer goods production has contracted over the month.

Norway: Industrial production (April): 0.6% m/m (prior: -1.1% revised from -1.0%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 0.9% m/m after 2.0% m/m prior month. Industrial activity was strong in oil sector, refineries and basic metals, while it has declined for machinery and equipment segments.

Eurozone: GDP (Q1-26): -0.1% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Q1 GDP has been revised down due to sharp negative revisions to Ireland GDP; Ireland was down by 12%q, due to lower international firms’ activity (-2% in first estimate).
• Eurozone consumption was up by 0.2%q (0.4% in Q4-25), public consumption up by 0.5% q (0.6% q in Q4), but capex down by 0.3% q (0.8% q in Q4). Exports and imports were sharply down.
• Excluding Ireland, GDP was up by 0.2%q, which still pointed to a relative resilience.

Turkey: CPI (May): 1.71% m/m vs 1.61% expected (prior: 4.18%)

• Monthly inflation has slowed down from the prior month, but changes remained sustained; rises were strong for clothes, transport, housing and hotels-restaurants.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 32.37% y/y prior month to 32.61%; core inflation was up by 30.44% y/y after 29.83% y/y prior month.