每日宏观动态
US inflation: trend on the rise and first signs of tariffs impacting prices of US goods
US: NY Empire manufacturing (July): 5.5 vs -9.2 expected (prior: -16)
- Index has passed positive, as seen past Feb. Opinions have rebounded on orders, shipments and inventories; prices paid have increased.
- The 6-month index has slightly increased, thanks to employment, capex and prices received.
US: CPI (June): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
- Inflation was in line with expectations and some pressures from tariffs (Asia, steel) were visible on some specific goods sectors.
- By sector, inflation was up by 0.3% m/m on food as the prior month; eggs prices continued to decline (-7.4 m/m; 27.3% y/y). Energy prices were up by 0.9% m/m after -1% m/m (-0.8% y/y), with rising fuel and gasoline prices.
- The prices for goods were up by 0.2% m/m after 0% the prior month; within this large sector, prices were strongly up for furniture, appliances and equipment, apparels, footwear products, sporting goods, and video products; these sectors have supported higher tariffs coming from Asia or due to higher steel costs; these rises were nevertheless balanced by further declines in autos (news and used cars) over the month.
- Services were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month; shelter costs were on regular rise 0.2% m/m in June and May and OER were up by 0.3% m/m as prior month. Medical care (hospital) and other personal services have accelerated over the month while airfares have declined further.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.7%y/y and core inflation from 2.8% to 2.9% y/y.
- Past rises in tariffs and potential new ones could fuel a rising inflation trend above 3% in H2-25.
Eurozone: Industrial production (May): 1.7% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -2.2% revised from -2.4%)
- A reversal in industrial activity after the large contraction seen the prior month.
- By sector, activity has regained in energy, capital good and non-durable consumer goods; on the opposite, activity on intermediate and durable consumer goods has contracted further.
- By country, Ireland has brought large volatility, with industrial activity up by 12.4% m/m after -12.5% m/m prior month, thanks to pharma products ahead of potential rise in tariffs.
Germany: Zew (July): 52.7 vs 50.4 expected (prior: 47.5)
- Expectations have strongly rebounded over the month; opinions on current situation have also improved (index from -72 the prior month to -59.5).
- Views have improved on steel, autos, pharma-chemical and were more positive in services over the month.
Spain: CPI (June): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0%)
- Inflation was firmer than initial estimates over the month; prices have decreased for clothes but accelerated for housing, transport, recreation and leisure. Core inflation was up by 0.5% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 2% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y; core inflation remained stable at 2.2% y/y.
Poland: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Final data were in line with first estimate; prices have declined over the month on clothes, housing, energy-transport, while they increased for leisure and hotels.
- Yearly trend has marginally increased from 4.0% y/y prior month to 4.1% y/y.
Sweden Inflation (June) boosted by holiday packages
Sweden: CPI (June): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Final data confirmed the rebound in monthly inflation; prices of transport (package holidays) were strongly up over the month as well as costs of leisure-culture. On the opposite, prices of energy, clothes and communication were down over the month.
- Yearly trend has increased from 2.3% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y and from 2.5% y/y to 3.3% y/y on core inflation.
- Inflation data could favor a wait and see strategy from the central bank before decreasing further is key rates.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (June): -0.1% m/m (prior: -0.5%)
- Import prices were down by 0.2% m/m after -1.1%; producer prices were flat over the month after -0.2% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend remained negative for import prices (-2.8% y/y after -2.9% y/y prior month) and moderately positive for producer prices (0.3% y/y after 0.4% y/y prior month).
Weak UK industrial production and activity in services in May
France: CPI (June): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Final data confirmed a rebound in monthly inflation after large contraction the prior month due to energy prices.
- While food prices declined over the month, a large monthly rebound was seen in energy (1.9% m/m after -1.7% prior month), and also in transport, clothes and communication sectors.
- Yearly trend was up by 0.9% y/y after 0.6% y/y prior month.
UK: Industrial production (May): -0.9% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.6%)
- Manufacturing production was down by 1% m/m after -0.7% m/m the prior month; production of intermediate, energy and non-durable consumer goods was down over the month.
- Separately, services were just up by 0.1% m/m (-0.3% m/m the prior month); proxy for GDP was also down by 0.1% m/m after -0.3% m/m the prior month.
- After a strong rebound in Q1-25 (0.7%q), GDP should slow down on a quarterly basis, reflecting tariffs impact and weaker industrial activity.
Germany: Wholesale price (June): 0.2% m/m (prior: -0.3%)
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.4% y/y prior month to 0.9% y/y.
Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (June): -32.2 vs -35 expected (prior: -36.5)
- Consumer sentiment has improved on financial situation and about major purchases over the month. Opinions were less negative on economic situation.
Turkey: Current account (May): -0.68bn USD vs -0.9bn expected (prior: -7.9bn revised from -7.86bn)
- Rising surplus in services has reduced current account deficit over the month.
- Official reserves have increased by USD 13.46 bn after USD -24.9 bn the prior month.
German inflation back to 2% in June
US: Initial jobless claims (July 5): 227k vs 235k expected (prior: 232k revised from 233k)
- Continuing claims: 1965 k after 1955k the prior week.
Germany: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Final data confirmed moderation in inflation; monthly prices have decreased for food, clothes and oil prices while they were up for leisure and other goods.
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.1% y/y the prior month to 2.0%y/y.
Italy: Industrial production (May): -0.7% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)
- Industrial activity has reversed after a strong rebound the prior month.
- Except capital goods, which remained flat over the month, all other sectors were down over the month; notably, consumer durable goods were down by 2.2% m/m after 2.5% m/m the prior month.
Norway: CPI (June): 0.2% m/m (prior: 0.4%)
- Picture was mixed over the month; prices have declined for clothes, housing and household goods but regained for transport, food and tourism services. Core inflation was up by 0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend remained stable at 3% y/y over the month; core inflation has regained from 2.8% y/y the prior month to 3.1% y/y.
Sweden: Retail sales (May): -1.2% m/m (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)
- Household consumption has weakened on lower confidence and weakening labor.
Sweden: Industrial production (May): -0.1% m/m (prior: 1.8% revised from 2.3%)
- Orders were down by 1.04% m/m after -6.5% m/m prior month. On production, construction was weak while manufacturing sector was up by 0.6% m/m.
- Separately, services were down by 0.5% m/m after 1.7% m/m prior month.
UK: RICS house price balance (June): -7% vs -9% expected (prior: -7% revised from -8%)
- Balance of opinions remained depressed due to ongoing negative views on prices while prospects for future sales have improved over the month.
Turkey: Industrial production (May): 3.1% m/m (prior: -3.2% revised from -3.1%)
- Industrial activity has rebounded after the fall the prior month; both manufacturing and mining sectors have rebounded in parallel over the month.
US small business sentiment edges down
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Jun): 98.6 as expected (prior: 98.6)
- Sentiment among US small businesses dipped slightly in June, as concerns over taxes persisted during the month of June.
- The decline was primarily due to rising inventories: owners now see stockpiles as too high. Compagnies have struggled to manage inventories with the administration's rapidly changing policies on tariffs.
- Moreover, the falling outlook for better conditions drove the headline number lower.
Germany: Trade Balance (May): 18.4bn EUR vs 15.5bn expected (prior: 15.7bn revised from 14.6bn)
- Germany's trade surplus expanded. This growth occurred as exports declined less sharply than imports. Exports dropped by 1.4% m/m to a four-month low of €129.4 bn, a steeper fall than the anticipated 0.2%, largely due to decreased sales to the US and China.
- Exports to the US plummeted by 7.7%, hitting their lowest point since March 2022, impacted by tariffs from the Trump administration. Meanwhile, imports fell by 3.8% to a five-month low of €111.1 bn, reversing April's revised 2.2% increase and exceeding forecasts of a 0.9% decline. The reduction was mainly driven by decreased imports from both EU countries (-3.6%) and non-EU countries (-4.1%).