每日宏观动态

US: CPI (Jul): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4%)

• America’s price pressures eased a touch in July, delivering no surprises but a little relief. Both headline and core inflation matched forecasts on a monthly and annual basis, which shaved the year-on-year rates and marginally lightened the burden on the Federal Reserve.
• Core CPI, slipped to 2.5% from 2.6%, continuing its gentle glide toward the Fed’s 2% target. Headline CPI, edged down to 3.4% from 3.5%. On a month-to-month basis, energy prices fell again, albeit less dramatically than in June (down 1.5% m/m after a 5.7% drop), as cheaper gasoline led the decline.
• Beneath the surface, the stickier parts of inflation sent mixed signals. Core services, the component that most worries policymakers, re-accelerated, propelled by firmer medical care and transportation services, keeping the “last mile” of disinflation tricky.
• Yet shelter, the single largest slice of the consumer basket, continued to post weak rates of growth and could exert a powerful drag on overall price growth in the months ahead. Meanwhile, core goods prices ticked up 0.2% on the month.
• Taken together, July’s report paints a picture of an economy where inflation is still edging lower. The modest deceleration in the annual rates, the ongoing retreat in energy, and the encouraging tilt in shelter argue for Fed being on hold until the rest of the year.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (July): 99.8 vs 97.5 expected (prior: 97.4)

• Business confidence has increased further, and the index was back to recent highs.
• Opinions have increased about economy, employment and capex; while views remained cautious on future sales.
• Opinions have moderated on selling prices, but the index remained at high level.

US: Existing home sales (July): 4.06M vs 4.05M expected (prior: 4.13M revised from 4.09M)

• Home sales have declined after prior month data were revised higher.
• Sales of multi-family houses remained stable over the month, but sales of single-family houses have decreased from 3.76 M to 3.69 M.
• Prices were up by 2% y/y after 1.8% y/y the prior month.

Brazil: CPI (July): 0.07% m/m vs 0.01% expected (prior: 0.16%)

• IPCA index has moderated over the month; prices for food and clothes have declined over the month, while housing and healthcare prices have accelerated.
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.64% y/y prior month to 4.44% y/y.

Norway: CPI (July): 1% m/m (prior: -0.2%)

• Inflation has strongly rebounded over the month due to higher prices for food, transport, insurance and leisure sectors; prices of clothes and communication declined over the month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.8% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3% y/y after 2.7% y/y prior month, but core inflation remained stable at 2.7% y/y.

Turkey: Industrial production (June): 0.1% m/m (prior: -3.0% revised from -2.9%)

• Production has rebounded for electricity-gas, but it has declined for mining and manufacturing sectors.

US: Non-farm payrolls (July): -23k vs 80k expected (prior: 20k revised from 57k)

• Payrolls turned negative and the prior two months were significantly revised lower; May payrolls were revised from initially 129k to 63k.
• The monthly fall was related to a reversal over the past two months in services: payrolls in services were up by 5 k after 11K prior month, but job destructions were seen in: retail trade (-19k after -4k), finance (-14k after -2k), leisure (-40 k after -43 k) and government (-53 k after -10k). Creations remained positive but have slowed down in professional business (18 k after 34k) and in education-health (25k after 54 k).
• Creations remained positive but modest in manufacturing and construction.
• Wage growth has slowed down to 0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m and to 3.2% y/y after 3.4% y/y.
• The unemployment ratio has decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, due to a decline in both labor force and unemployed.
• Fed would be obliged to care again about the labor and not only about inflation; labor is volatile (strong creations in health vs a reversal in leisure and trade sectors) and finally labor looks a bit more fragile than expected.

Germany: Industrial production (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Production was contrasted by sector; activity has regained for capital goods, consumer goods and energy, but decreased for intermediate goods over the month.

Germany: Trade Balance (June): 15.4bn EUR vs 17.2bn expected (prior: 19.3bn revised from 19.1bn)

• Exports were up by 0.9% m/m (1.1% m/m prior month), but imports have strongly rebounded, up by 4.4% m/m (-2.6% m/m prior month).

France: Unemployment rate (Q2-26): 8.3% vs 8.2% expected (prior: 8.1%)

• Unemployed has increased from the prior quarter.

Norway: Industrial production (June): 7.6% m/m (prior: -0.9% revised from -1%)

• Production has rebounded due to a surge in oil-extraction sector, while manufacturing production was down by 1% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month).
• Within manufacturing, the monthly reversal was led by food, basic materials and machinery-equipment sectors.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (July): -34.8 vs -34 expected (prior: -35.8)

• Consumer confidence has regained, but less than expected over the month.
• Confidence has regularly improved over the prior months; opinions have improved about economic outlook and future purchases but remained cautious about financial situation.