每日宏观动态

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (July): 99.8 vs 97.5 expected (prior: 97.4)

• Business confidence has increased further, and the index was back to recent highs.
• Opinions have increased about economy, employment and capex; while views remained cautious on future sales.
• Opinions have moderated on selling prices, but the index remained at high level.

US: Existing home sales (July): 4.06M vs 4.05M expected (prior: 4.13M revised from 4.09M)

• Home sales have declined after prior month data were revised higher.
• Sales of multi-family houses remained stable over the month, but sales of single-family houses have decreased from 3.76 M to 3.69 M.
• Prices were up by 2% y/y after 1.8% y/y the prior month.

Brazil: CPI (July): 0.07% m/m vs 0.01% expected (prior: 0.16%)

• IPCA index has moderated over the month; prices for food and clothes have declined over the month, while housing and healthcare prices have accelerated.
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.64% y/y prior month to 4.44% y/y.

Norway: CPI (July): 1% m/m (prior: -0.2%)

• Inflation has strongly rebounded over the month due to higher prices for food, transport, insurance and leisure sectors; prices of clothes and communication declined over the month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.8% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3% y/y after 2.7% y/y prior month, but core inflation remained stable at 2.7% y/y.

Turkey: Industrial production (June): 0.1% m/m (prior: -3.0% revised from -2.9%)

• Production has rebounded for electricity-gas, but it has declined for mining and manufacturing sectors.

US: Non-farm payrolls (July): -23k vs 80k expected (prior: 20k revised from 57k)

• Payrolls turned negative and the prior two months were significantly revised lower; May payrolls were revised from initially 129k to 63k.
• The monthly fall was related to a reversal over the past two months in services: payrolls in services were up by 5 k after 11K prior month, but job destructions were seen in: retail trade (-19k after -4k), finance (-14k after -2k), leisure (-40 k after -43 k) and government (-53 k after -10k). Creations remained positive but have slowed down in professional business (18 k after 34k) and in education-health (25k after 54 k).
• Creations remained positive but modest in manufacturing and construction.
• Wage growth has slowed down to 0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m and to 3.2% y/y after 3.4% y/y.
• The unemployment ratio has decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, due to a decline in both labor force and unemployed.
• Fed would be obliged to care again about the labor and not only about inflation; labor is volatile (strong creations in health vs a reversal in leisure and trade sectors) and finally labor looks a bit more fragile than expected.

Germany: Industrial production (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Production was contrasted by sector; activity has regained for capital goods, consumer goods and energy, but decreased for intermediate goods over the month.

Germany: Trade Balance (June): 15.4bn EUR vs 17.2bn expected (prior: 19.3bn revised from 19.1bn)

• Exports were up by 0.9% m/m (1.1% m/m prior month), but imports have strongly rebounded, up by 4.4% m/m (-2.6% m/m prior month).

France: Unemployment rate (Q2-26): 8.3% vs 8.2% expected (prior: 8.1%)

• Unemployed has increased from the prior quarter.

Norway: Industrial production (June): 7.6% m/m (prior: -0.9% revised from -1%)

• Production has rebounded due to a surge in oil-extraction sector, while manufacturing production was down by 1% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month).
• Within manufacturing, the monthly reversal was led by food, basic materials and machinery-equipment sectors.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (July): -34.8 vs -34 expected (prior: -35.8)

• Consumer confidence has regained, but less than expected over the month.
• Confidence has regularly improved over the prior months; opinions have improved about economic outlook and future purchases but remained cautious about financial situation.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-26): 1.4% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.3%)

• Output was up by 1.7%q after 1.5%q in Q1 and total wages were up by 2.7%q after 2.1% q/q.
• Unit labor costs remained on stable trend at 1.3%q in Q2 and Q1.
• Productivity has slowed down from 2.9% y/y in Q1 to 2.2% y/y in Q2, but it is still an elevated trend.

• US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 1): 199k vs 205k expected (prior: 198k revised from 197k)
• Continuing claims: 1801 k after 1777 k prior week.

US: Wholesale inventories (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Inventories have increased for autos, computers and machinery over the month; total sales were down by 3% m/m, driven by lower purchases of oil.

Eurozone: Retail sales (June): -0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

• Sales of auto fuel were up by 1.5% m/m while purchases of food and manufactured goods have contracted over the month.

Germany: Factory orders (June): 3.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 1.9%)

• Orders have rebounded over the month, but prior month data were revised lower.
• Orders were sustained for capital goods (computers, engineering) and consumer goods, while they decreased for intermediate goods.
• Domestic orders have surged (7.8% m/m) while foreign orders were on a modest rise (0.2% m/m.
• Defense, infrastructure and climate spendings, related to budget plan, are driving the German industry.

Italy: Industrial production (June): -1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Industrial activity has contracted further over the month. Production of energy has increased over the month, while activity has declined in all other sectors; the largest monthly fall was seen in capital goods.

Spain: Industrial production (June): -0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 1.2%)

• Production has reversed over the month; production was strongly up for energy and intermediate sectors, but down for capital and consumer goods.

Sweden: CPI (July): -0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to falling electricity and energy prices mainly due to lower taxes. Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.3% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y, but core inflation accelerated from 0.4% to 0.6% y/y.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (July): 3.1% as expected (prior: 3.1%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month, but unemployment rate (sa data) remained unchanged.