星期五, 十月 17

Eurozone final CPI (Sept.): modest monthly rise but yearly trend slightly higher

Eurozone: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Final data have confirmed the modest rise of prices over the month.
  • Prices have decreased over the month for energy, food and services (-0.9% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month), but were up for goods (2.2% m/m, due to a rebound in clothes as seen in national indices).
  • Yearly trend has marginally regained from 2.0 % y/y the prior month to 2.2% y/y, and from 2.3% y/ to 2.4% y/y on core inflation.
  • Food prices (3% y/y) and services (3.2% y/y) remained the largest driver of this yearly trend; trend in energy prices has turned less negative (from -2% y/y the prior month to -0.4% y/y) while trend on good prices remained stable at 0.8% y/y.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 8.7% as expected (prior: 8.8%)

  • Unemployed has marginally decreased over the month.
星期四, 十月 16

US: rebound of confidence in housing; UK: firmer industrial activity in some sectors

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 37 vs 33 expected (prior: 32)

  • Confidence in the housing market has rebounded over the month; opinions turned more positive on both current and future sales and a firmer demand.

 

Italy: CPI (Sept.): 1.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Final data confirmed the large rebound in prices due to strong rise in clothes (26% m/m), and in hotel-restaurants costs.
  • On the opposite, prices of energy-transport and culture were down over the month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.6% y/y the prior month to 1.8%y/y.

 

UK: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.9%)

  • Industrial activity was down in mining and oil-gas sectors but rebounded in the manufacturing sector (0.7% m/m after -1.1% m/m the prior month).
  • Within manufacturing, production was down for durable goods, intermediate and energy sectors; only investment goods and non-durable production was up over the month.
  • Separately, activity in services was flat over the month (also flat the prior month) and construction down by 0.3% m/m; the GDP monthly proxy was up by 0.1% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month).
星期三, 十月 15

Sharp rebound in US NY Empire manufacturing

US: Empire manufacturing (Oct.): 10.7 vs -1.8 expected (prior: -8.7)

  • Business confidence has unexpectedly sharply rebounded over the month.
  • Sentiment on current situation and 6-M expectations have both rebounded, driven by higher new orders, shipments and employment.
  • On the negative side, prices paid and received have rebounded in parallel.

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (Aug.): -1.2% m/m vs -1.6% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)

  • Industrial activity has contracted over the month, but less than expected by the consensus.
  • All sectors were down over the month, except non-durable consumer goods.
  • Activity remained highly volatile over the month, notably at sector level.

 

France: CPI (Sept.): -1.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Final data confirmed the decline in prices, driven by falling transport costs (-13.5% m/m) and decreasing food prices. On the opposite, prices of clothes have continued to rise over the month (3.3% m/m after 5.6% m/m prior month).
  • Yearly trend has increased from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 1.1% y/y.

 

Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Final data were slightly higher than expected due to strong rise in clothes (18.8% m/m) while food and recreation-culture prices were down over the month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.7% y/y the prior month to 3% y/y.

 

Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m (prior: 0%)

  • Prices were stable over the month; prices of clothes and education were strongly up over the month but balanced by falling prices for food, transport-energy and recreation-culture.
  • Yearly trend remained stable at 2.9% y/y.

 

Sweden: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Prices were up over the month for clothes, culture and restaurants-hotels, while they declined for food, housing and transport sectors.
  • Yearly trend has marginally declined from 3.2% y/y prior month to 3.1%y and core inflation slightly decreased from 2.9% to 2.7% y/y. While trend in headline inflation is lowering, inflation in services remained sustained up by 4.3% y/y.
星期二, 十月 14

US: falling business confidence among small and medium-sized firms

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Sept.): 98.8 vs 100.6 expected (prior: 100.8)

  • Confidence in small firms has sharply decreased over the month; the major changes came from falling sentiment on future economy and sales, while uncertainties have regained.
  • After three months of an improving index, confidence has reverted.

 

Germany: Zew (Oct.): 39.3 vs 41.1 expected (prior: 37.3)

  • Expectations have regained progressively after the fall seen past July.
  • Sentiment on current situation has decreased again and the index was back to the lows seen in H1-25.
  • By sector, sentiment among financial community has decreased for retail and auto sectors, while it has improved for chemical, pharma, electronics and IT sectors.

 

Germany: CPI (Sept.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Final data confirmed modest rebound in inflation over the month driven by strong seasonal rebound in clothes and education; prices have declined over the month for energy-transport.
  • Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y; note that several sectors such as food, health, education and hotels offer yearly trend still far above the 2% y/y trend.

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Sept.): -1.8% m/m (prior: -1.8%)

  • Prices remained in negative territory; import prices were down by 0.5% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month), and producer prices were just flat over the month (-0.8% m/m prior month).
  • Yearly trend remained stable over the month but negative for import prices (-2.7% y/y) and also negative for producer prices (-1.4% y/y after -1.3% y/y the prior month). Import prices remained the main deflationary forces in the Swiss economy.

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 4.8% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.7%)

  • Claimant count has increased from 4.3% the prior month to 4.4%. Jobless claims has rebounded to 25.8 k after -2k the prior month.
  • Employment (3M average) has increased by 91 k after 232 k the prior month; unemployed over 12M has increased significantly over the period.
  • Vacancies have continued to regularly decline.
  • Labor remained on a regular downward trend.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 5% y/y vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.8% revised from 4.7%)

  • Ex bonuses, wage growth has slowed from 4.8% y/y the prior month to 4.7%, and from 4.7% to 4.4% for the private sector.
  • Including bonuses, private sector wage growth remained up by 4.8% (4.7% y/y prior month) and trend remained strong in services (5.1% y/y) and in manufacturing (4.8% y/y).
  • Data diverged between wage growth including bonus and this ex-bonus; the trend is slowing down but the BoE may prefer to wait further before cutting its rates again.
星期一, 十月 13

Turkey: seasonal improvement in current account balance

Germany: Wholesale price (Sept.): 0.2% m/m (prior: -0.6%)

  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.7% y/y the prior month to 1.2% y/y.

 

Turkey: Current account (Aug.): 5.46bn USD vs 5.40bn expected (prior: 1.71bn revised from 1.77bn)

  • Trade deficit on goods has reduced over the month and services surplus has regained as traditionally seen during the summer season.
  • Official reserves have regained for the second month.
  • Cumulated deficit YTD reached USD 15.9 bn and projections point to USD 18-23 bn total deficit in 2025; financing came mainly from private sector debt and slightly improving official reserves projections over the year.

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