每日宏观动态

US: Trade balance (Dec.): -70.3 bn USD vs -55.5 bn expected (prior: -53 bn revised from -56.8 bn)

• Trade deficit has sharply increased in Dec.; ex-oil trade deficit has increased from USD -59.7 bn to USD -75.1 bn.
• Real exports were down by 1.7% m/m after -3.4% m/m prior month; exports were sharply down for industrial supplies (-12.3 % m/m after -8% m/m) while they increased for consumer goods (8.4% m/m after -12.9% m/m prior month).
• Real imports were up by 3.6% m/m after 4.2% m/m prior month; imports were sustained for industrial supplies (15.9% m/m after -5.6% m/m) and also strong for capital goods and autos.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Feb.): 16.3 vs 7.5 expected (prior: 12.6)

• Business sentiment has increased over the month and the 6-M index has also sharply rebounded (from 25.5 prior month to 42.8).
• Sentiment remained cautious on new orders, but new orders sharply regained in the 6-month views; opinions have decreased on prices.

US: Wholesale inventories (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inventories remained on modest rising trend; inventories in the auto sector have declined for another month (-0.4% m/m after -1% m/m prior month).

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb. 14): 206k vs 225k expected (prior: 229k revised from 227k)

• Continuing claims: 1869 k after 1852 k prior week.

US: Pending home sales (Jan.): -0.8% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: -7.4% revised from -9.3%)

• Sales remained under contraction after sharp fall the prior month.
• Only two over 4 districts have rebounded over the month.

Poland: Industrial production (Jan.): -6% m/m vs -3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Industrial activity has contracted for manufacturing while activity has rebounded in electricity-utilities sector.

Switzerland: Trade balance (Jan.): 3.6 Bn CHF (prior: 2.92Bn)

• Trade surplus has improved from the prior month; real exports were up by 3.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month; real imports were up by 1% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 85.7 (prior: 83.7)

• Consumer confidence has slightly regained from the prior month. Opinions have improved on financial situation while sentiment remained cautious about future purchases.

US: Durable goods orders (Dec.): -1.4% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 5.4% revised from 5.3%)

• Durable goods orders decreased over the month due a large fall in orders for civil aircraft. Orders for computers-electronics and fabricated metals were on a sharp rise over the month.
• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core orders) were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Shipments were up by 1% m/m (-0.3% m/m the prior month) and shipments for core goods up by 0.9% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).
• Inventories were up by 0.2% m/m for total and core orders.
• These data pointed to ongoing investment cycle.

US: Housing starts (Dec.): 1404k vs 1304k expected (prior: 1322k)

• Building permits have rebounded from 1388 k prior month to 1448 k.
• Housing starts have rebounded over the month for both single and multi-family houses; the increase in building permits was only centered on multifamily houses.
• Trend remained globally flat but monthly data were highly volatile past months.

UK: CPI (Jan.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Prices have declined as expected over the month; the fall was coming from lower energy prices (-0.5% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month) and falling industrial goods (-1% m/m), household goods (-2.4% m/m) and clothes (-3.4% m/m).
• Services were also down over the month (-0.3% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month), with falling travel-transport and holiday packages over the month; the only significant rise was seen in medical, up by 2.2% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined as expected from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y; core inflation was down from 3.2% to 3.1% y/y and services slightly down from 4.5% y/y to 4.4% y/y.
• Despite a modest decline in services, the way to more easing from the BoE is opened given downward trend in inflation, labor and wage growth.

UK: PPI Input prices (Jan.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.2%)

• The monthly rebound was due to rising prices of fuels (1.4% m/m) and materials (0.4% m/m).
• Yearly trend has declined from 0.5% y/y prior month to -0.2% y/y.

UK: PPI Output prices (Jan.): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)

• At output level, prices of energy were down over the month while prices of other sectors were modestly positive.
• Yearly trend declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.5% y/y.

France: CPI (Jan.): -0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final data have confirmed the monthly fall in prices. Prices of goods have decreased by 0.7% m/m, thanks to prices of clothes (-10% m/m); services prices were down by 0.1% m/m, due to falling transport prices (-7.9% m/m); food (0.5% m/m) and energy prices (0.8% m/m) were up over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 0.7% y/y prior month to 0.4% y/y.

US: NY Empire manufacturing (Feb.): 7.1 vs 6.2 expected (prior: 7.7)

• Business sentiment has decreased but less than expected from the prior month.
• Sentiment has decreased on new orders and shipments after their rebound the prior month. On the opposite, sentiment remained on the rise on employment and on inventories.
• In parallel, time of delivery has increased as well as prices received and paid.
• Despite a highly volatile index, underlying trend remained positive over medium-term.

US: NAHB housing market index (Feb.): 36 vs 38 expected (prior: 37)

• Sentiment in housing has decreased further from Dec.; opinions have declined on future sales and new demand.

Germany: CPI (Jan.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Final data confirmed initial monthly fall in inflation. The picture remained mixed at sector level: higher inflation over the month for food, petrol and education while prices have declined for clothes, leisure and household energy.
• The yearly trend has reaccelerated from 1.8% y/y prior month to 2.1% y/y.

Germany: Zew (Feb.): 58.3 vs 65.2 expected (prior: 59.6)

• Contrary to consensus, expectations have decreased over the month.
• Sentiment on current situation was less negative over the month, but expectations have decreased; despite this decrease, the index remained above the levels seen in 2025.
• By sector, confidence has decreased over the month on finance, autos and IT sectors, while sentiment has increased for steel, chemicals and electronic goods.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Dec.): 5.2% vs 5.1% expected (prior: 5.1%)

• Claimant count (Jan.) up to 4.4% from 4.3% prior month. Jobless claims have increased from 2.7k to 28.6 k.
• Long-term unemployed has increased over the month.
• 3-M employment has decreased from 82 k the prior 3-M period to 52 k. Over the 3-M period, full-time workers have decreased while part-time and temporary workers have increased.
• Labor remained fragile and on downward trend.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Dec.): 4.2% y/y vs 4.6% expected (prior: 4.6% revised from 4.7%)

• Average wage growth has continued to moderate. Wage growth in services has slowed down from 4.7% the prior month to 4.2% y/y, which should please the BoE and validates a next rate cut.
• Across sectors, wage growth was firmer in manufacturing (4.4% y/y after 4.1% y/y) and in retail-hotels up by 5.5% y/y after 5.4% y/y.

Eurozone: Industrial production (Dec.): -1.4% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.7%)

• Production has reversed after a rebound the prior month (data revised down).
• All sectors were under contraction except durable consumer goods over the month. Activity has reversed for capital goods, after a strong rebound at year-end.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 8% vs 8.7% expected (prior: 8.8%)

• In non-seasonally data, the unemployment ratio has increased from 8.3 % to 8.6%, contrary to seasonally adjusted data; total unemployed has increased over the month.