每日宏观动态

US: Non-farm payrolls (May): 172k vs 88k expected (prior: 179k revised from 115k)

• Payrolls were higher than expected and prior month data were strongly revised up. After revised data, payrolls have marginally decreased from the prior month.
• Job creations were more positive than in prior month for manufacturing and construction and total creations in goods sectors were up by 28 k after 14 k prior month, and this could be related to improving momentum in PMI manufacturing.
• Creations in services have decreased from the prior month (92 k after 163 k prior month) and the picture was more contrasted at sub-sector level.
• Jobs have contracted for trade-transport, information and business services, but were in rebound for leisure (70 k after 30 k), government (52 k after 2 k) and remained positive in education-health (40 k after 54 k).
• Unemployment ratio remained stable at 4.3% as expected; wage growth was up by 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month), but the yearly trend has declined from 3.6% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.
• A firmer activity has created more jobs, and with a relatively more positive momentum in goods than in services. Labor is no more a concern for the Fed and stable unemployment ratio and moderate wage growth should give some reassure the Fed and help to concentrate on inflation risks.

France: Industrial production (April): 0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.4% m/m after 1.3% m/m prior month.
• Production in capital goods and intermediate goods was up by 0.7% m/m while energy and consumer goods production has contracted over the month.

Norway: Industrial production (April): 0.6% m/m (prior: -1.1% revised from -1.0%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 0.9% m/m after 2.0% m/m prior month. Industrial activity was strong in oil sector, refineries and basic metals, while it has declined for machinery and equipment segments.

Eurozone: GDP (Q1-26): -0.1% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Q1 GDP has been revised down due to sharp negative revisions to Ireland GDP; Ireland was down by 12%q, due to lower international firms’ activity (-2% in first estimate).
• Eurozone consumption was up by 0.2%q (0.4% in Q4-25), public consumption up by 0.5% q (0.6% q in Q4), but capex down by 0.3% q (0.8% q in Q4). Exports and imports were sharply down.
• Excluding Ireland, GDP was up by 0.2%q, which still pointed to a relative resilience.

Turkey: CPI (May): 1.71% m/m vs 1.61% expected (prior: 4.18%)

• Monthly inflation has slowed down from the prior month, but changes remained sustained; rises were strong for clothes, transport, housing and hotels-restaurants.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 32.37% y/y prior month to 32.61%; core inflation was up by 30.44% y/y after 29.83% y/y prior month.

US: Initial jobless claims (May 30): 225k vs 215k expected (prior: 212k revised from 215k)

• Continuing claims: 1777 k after 1785 k prior week.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q1-26): 0.3% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Output growth has slowed down from 1.5% q/q prior quarter to 1.0% q/q; total wage growth remained sustained at 2.1% q/q but on slower than 3.1% q seen in Q4-25.

Eurozone: Retail sales (April): -0.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from -0.1%)

• Sales have reversed after a rebound the prior month (data revised up).
• Auto fuel has led the contraction (down by 2.7% m/m), and non-food sales were also down by 0.9% m/m; food sales were up by 0.9% m/m.
• Sales were highly volatile in H1-27, and the yearly trend is weakening, from 2.2% y/y in Jan. to 1.0% y/y.

Spain: Industrial production (April): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 2.4% revised from 2.3%)

• Production has contracted after a strong rebound the prior month.
• Except capital goods (up by 0.1% m/m), activity in all other sectors (consumers, intermediate and energy) was down over the month.

Sweden: CPI (May): 0.9% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.5%)

• Preliminary data pointed to sustained monthly rise due to services and energy prices.
• Core inflation was up by 0.7% m/m after -0.6% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 1.5% y/y and, on core inflation from 0% to 0.5% y/y. This rebound appeared just below central banks expectations of 1.6% y/y on headline and 0.9% y/y on core inflation.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (May): 3.1% vs 3.0% expected (prior: 3.0%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month but the unemployment ratio has slightly increased on seasonally adjusted data.
• Long-term unemployment has increased while job openings have decreased over the month.

Switzerland: CPI (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Oil prices were down by 0.7% m/m after 11% m/m the prior month; food prices were up by 1.1% m/m after -0.4% m/m.
• Other prices offered limited monthly changes: good prices up by 0.1% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month), and services up by 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend remained stable at 0.6% y/y as well as the trend on core inflation at 0.4% y/y.

Turkey: Unemployment rate (April): 8.2% (prior: 8.1%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month.

US: ADP Employment change (May): 122k vs 120k expected (prior: 105k revised from 109k)

• Job creations were firmer than expected and higher than the prior month.
• Creations have accelerated in small firms and rebounded for medium-sized firms.
• Jobs in services have increased to 114 k, driven by education-health, trade-transport and a positive reversal in business services, the same sectors seen on the rise in the JOLTS survey.

US: Services PMI (May): 50.7 vs 51 expected (prior: 51)

• Business confidence has decreased more than in the first estimate (50.7) from the prior month.
• Demand was subdued facing rising uncertainties and exports were down, as well as employment.
• Index on prices paid has decreased over the month but it remained at a high level.

US: ISM Services (May): 54.5 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 53.6)

• Sentiment in services has increased further but the index still remained below the 56-level seen in past Feb.
• Opinions have increased further on production, new orders and inventories while they decreased over the month on employment and exports.
• Prices paid remained on the rise, reaching its highest level for this year.

US: Factory orders (April): 4.8% m/m vs 4.6% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 1.5%)

• Orders have accelerated over the month thanks to orders in defense and civil aircrafts.
• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core goods) were down by 1% m/m after a string 3.8% m/m prior month.
• Shipments were up by 1% m/m after 1.5% m/m the prior month; shipments for core orders were up by 0.4% m/m after 1.3% m/m prior month.
• Inventories were up by 0.3% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and up by 0.2% m/m for core orders.

Eurozone: PPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 3.4%)

• While energy prices were down by 0.4% m/m (11% m/m the prior month), prices of intermediate goods were up by 1.8% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month).
• Core PPI were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 4.9% y/y after 2% y/y the prior month; after pressures from energy, inflation was fueled by raw materials and intermediate goods prices, maintaining upside risks to inflation.

Eurozone: Services PMI (May): 47.7 vs 46.4 expected (prior: 47.6)

• Final data were better than in the first estimates, as the index has marginally increased over the month.
• Demand has weakened, as well as views on employment, while pressures on costs remained in place; rises in selling prices were more moderate than prior month.
• Final data have shown a less sharp decrease in French index (44.3 after 46.5) from the prior month, a rebound in Spain (50.1 after 47.9), and in Germany (48.1 after 46.9).
• Except Spain, index remained below 50, pointing to a weak and fragile trend in services.

UK: Services PMI (May): 49.3 vs 47.9 expected (prior: 52.7)

• The final data were less negative than in the first estimate, with the index just below 50.
• Lower and deferred demand and rising uncertainties have weighed down on the sector.
• Costs remained on the rise, but selling prices have increased more slowly than past month.
• Composite PMI has decreased from 52.6 prior month to 49.7.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (April): 7618k vs 6866k expected (prior: 6887k revised from 6866k)

• Demand has strongly rebounded over the month and the improvement has concerned all sectors.
• The demand has particularly increased for business services and education-health over the month, and a positive trend remained in place for trade-transport; a higher demand was also seen for construction, manufacturing and government sectors.
• Hirings seemed more difficult and have decreased over the month, notably in the sectors in which the demand for new jobs was in rebound (trade-transport, business services and education-health).
• Separations have decreased over the month for all sectors except leisure-hospitality.
• The rebound in activity and the improving sentiment has increased demand for jobs from the firms, that seemed to have difficulties to fulfill their rising demand.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (May): 3.2% y/y as expected (prior: 3.0%)

• Inflation has moderated over the month, being up by 0.1% m/m after 1.0% m/m the prior month.
• Energy prices have decreased by 1.1% m/m after 3.0% m/m the prior month; prices in other sectors remained contained, with food prices flat, goods prices up by 0.2% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and services up by 0.4% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month). Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.9% m/m past month.
• Despite a moderate monthly change, the yearly inflation trend has accelerated further, notably for core inflation settling at 2.5% y/y (2.4% expected) after 2.2% y/y the prior month; the rising trend in services (3.5% y/y after 3.0% y/y prior month) have added to the trend in parallel with energy prices up by 10.9% y/y; other prices remained limited, with food up by 2% y/y and good prices up by 0.9% y/y.
• These data confirm the next ECB rate hike expected in June.

Switzerland: Trade balance (April): 3.22 Bn CHF (prior: 2.61Bn)

• Real exports were up by 3% m/m after -3.6% m/m prior month; exports of machinery were solid while those of chemical and pharma products have decreased.
• Real imports were up by 4.1% m/m after 2.1% m/m prior month. Imports of energy were on the rise.

UK: M4 (May): 4.5% y/y (prior: 4.3%)

• Mortgage approvals have increased over the month (65.9 k after 64 k the prior month); consumer credit was up by 8.8% y/y, driven by credit cards.