每日宏观动态

US: Durable goods orders (Feb P): -1.4% m/m vs -1.2% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from 0.0%)

• US business-equipment orders rebounded in February, hinting that firms front-loaded investment ahead of escalating tensions with Iran.
• The headline was dragged down by a 5.4% fall in transportation equipment, as nondefense aircraft orders slumped 28.6% to $19.2bn. Excluding transport, orders rose 0.8%, with gains in primary metals (2.2% to $28.6bn) and machinery (1.5% to $41.1bn).
• Bookings for core capital goods (nondefense, ex-aircraft) increased 0.6% after a downwardly revised 0.4% drop, while shipments in the same category, feeding into equipment investment in GDP, climbed 0.9%.

 

Spain: PMI Services (Mar): 53.3 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Spain’s services sentiment beat expectations in March, lifted by stronger new orders, even as growth slowed to a nine-month low amid uncertainty from the Middle East conflict.
• In line with peers, input costs jumped at the fastest pace in nearly three years, driven by higher energy prices.

• Output prices rose at the quickest rate since August 2025.

US: Initial jobless claims (March 28): 202k vs 212k expected (prior: 211k revised from 210k)

• Continuing claims: 1841k vs 1837k expected (prior: 1816k)
• Initial claims fell to one of the lowest levels in the last two years, confirming that the labor market remains stuck in a "low-hire, low-fire" phase.

 

US: Trade balance (Feb): -57.3 bn USD vs -60.6 bn expected (prior: -54.7 bn revised from -54.5 bn)

• Imports: +4.3% vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.6%)
• Exports: +4.2% vs -2.3% expected (prior: +5.6%)
• The trade deficit slightly widened in February, but less than expected. Exports were driven by gold and natural gas shipments, and imports by computers, semiconductors and automobiles.

 

Switzerland: CPI (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• CPI y/y: 0.3% vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)
• Core CPI: 0.4% y/y as expected (prior: 0.4%)
• Unsurprisingly, prices for petroleum products rose sharply in March, +10.6% m/m, pushing up imported inflation by 1.3pp to -0.3% y/y, its highest level in more than two years.
• By contrast, domestic inflation fell back 0.1pp to its January level of 0.5% y/y, or 0.2% ex rents, which confirms that inflationary pressures remain muted.
• Swiss inflation is comparatively insulated from rising oil prices: energy’s weight in the Swiss CPI is roughly half that of the eurozone, and electricity tariffs are regulated. On top of that, a strong franc is reinforcing disinflationary pressures. Taken together, these factors make a rate hike in 2026 unlikely.

 

Italy: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.0% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Y/y: 1.6% vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.5%)

US: Manufacturing PMI (March): 52.3 vs 52.4 expected (prior: 51.6)

• Final data have shown that business confidence has increased from the prior month, but slightly less than initially estimated.
• Opinions have increased on production and new orders, but the demand was mainly domestic driven while exports were under constraints.
• Moreover, the demand was fueled by a stock rebuilding process with the target to save on prices.
• Costs were on a strong rise and selling prices have also increased; employment remained stable over the month.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (March): 52.7 vs 52.3 expected (prior: 52.4)

• Business confidence has increased over the month: the move was driven by firmer production and rising delivery time (rising disruption).
• Opinions on new orders, exports and backlog of orders have decreased over the month. Employment remained quite stable, but the related index was below 50.
• Prices paid have surged over the month, and the related index was back to its level seen in 2022.

 

US: ADP Employment change (March): 62k vs 40k expected (prior: 66k revised from 63k)

• Job creations were firmer for small firms, up by 85 k 60 k the prior month. Creations were more negative than prior month for medium firms (-20k) and large firms (-4 k).
• Despite positive surprise in headline numbers, the structure of creations shows ongoing fragilities.

 

US: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

• Sales were sustained over the month; they regained for autos, health, clothes, sport goods and gasoline; internet sales were also sustained, and restaurants (services) were also positive.
• On the opposite, food and furniture were down over the month; core sales (sales ex autos, building materials, gasoline and food) were up by 0.5% m/m after a modest 0.2% m/m.
• The consumer sector was resilient just ahead of the rise energy prices.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 6.2% vs 6.1% expected (prior: 6.1%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (March): 51.6 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 50.8)

• Final business confidence has increased more than initially estimated. Sentiment on new orders remained stable from the prior month.
• Situation by country was mixed: sentiment declined sharply in Spain (index from 50 prior month to 48.7) on a sharp fall in new orders; confidence was also slightly lower in France than initially estimated (index at 50 after 50.1) with falling new orders (index at 46.9).
• Views have regained in Germany (52.2) and Italy (51.3) on higher new orders.
• Production was firmer but with large disparities across countries; time of delivery has increased with disruption in maritime transport; exports remained stable; employment was adjusted lower by firms while costs and selling prices have surged over the month.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 5.3% vs 5.2% expected (prior: 5.2% revised from 5.1%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (March): 48.7 vs 47.1 expected (prior: 47.1)

• Business confidence has regained over the month, but the index remained below 50.
• New orders were less depressed over the month, the index regaining from 43.8 prior month to 46.3.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (March): 56.3 (prior: 56 revised from 56.1)

• Business confidence increased, but this was due to a strong rise in delivery time (disruption in production or transport); opinions have decreased on production, orders, inventories and exports over the month.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (March): 53.3 vs 47 expected (prior: 47.4)

• Business confidence has regained from the prior month, but this was also due to a large rebound in delivery time; other components were positively oriented such as production, orders, and inventories.
• Employment has decreased and prices paid have surged over the month.
• Separately, the Services PMI has increased from 54.2 prior month to 57.2. Views remained positive on new orders, employment and in prices in this sector.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (March): 51 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 51.7)

• Final business confidence has decreased more than initially expected; views were more negative over the month on production, employment while delivery time has increased due to disruption in several sectors.
• Costs were on a sharp rise and selling prices have increased in parallel.

 

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (March): 49 (prior: 47.3)

• Business confidence has increased over the month with rising new orders, but both indices remained below 50.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (March): 47.9 (prior: 49.3)

• Business confidence has weakened over the month, with falling new orders (from 49.6 to 46.9).

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Jan.): 1.18% y/y vs 1.38% expected (prior: 1.43% revised from 1.38%)

• Prices were up by 0.16% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month); on a 3-month average, all major cities have shown positive yearly trend in prices.

 

US: Chicago PMI (March): 52.8 vs 55 expected (prior: 57.7)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; sentiment has increased on new orders and production while it has decreased on employment and inventories.
• Prices paid have accelerated further over the month.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (March): 91.8 vs 87.9 expected (prior: 91 revised from 91.2)

• Surprisingly, consumer confidence has increased over the month; but the picture is mixed in details. The index was at low level, and it has slightly regained over the month.
• Sentiment on current situation has improved (index up from 118.7 to 123.3), while expectations have decreased (index from 72.6 to 70.9).
• Views on labor were slightly more positive on the short term, with some fragilities; expectations have improved on the 6-month horizon for activity but opinions on future employment have decreased.
• Willingness to buy autos and major appliances have increased over the month but decreased for houses.
• The 12M average inflation expectations have increased from 5.5% the prior month to 6.2% y/y.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Feb.): 6882k vs 6890k expected (prior: 7240k revised from 6946k)

• Job openings came lower over the month, but prior month data were revised up.
• Job openings have decreased for trade-transport, education-health, leisure-hospitality and public sector, while they increased for business services.
• Hirings have sharply decreased over the month, from 5347 k prior month to 4849 k. A decline was seen in all major sectors.
• Separations and quitters have also declined over the month.
• Labor remained fragile with lower demand and lower hiring and separations.

 

France: CPI (March): 1.1% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Energy prices have strongly rebounded, being up by 8.9% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month) and they jumped from -2.9% y/y the prior month to 7.3% y/y.
• In parallel, prices of goods were up by 0.6% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month) while costs of services remained on a slow trend, up by 0.2% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.1% y/y the prior month to 1.9% y/y.

 

France: Producer Prices (Feb.): -0.2% m/m (prior: 0.5%)

• Prices were down by 2.4% y/y after -2.3% y/y prior month; these data referred to a pre-war situation in the Middle East.

 

France: Consumer spending (Feb.): -1.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

• Spending was heavily down over the month, with all sectors except fuel-oil negative over the month.
• A reversal was seen for clothes, food and durable goods after a rebound in the prior month. Higher inflation and slower demand could weigh down on the outlook.

 

Italy: CPI (March): 1.6% m/m vs 1.8% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Inflation has surged on energy prices, but the monthly change stayed just below consensus expectations.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 1.5% y/y.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (March): 2.5% y/y vs 2.6% expected (prior: 1.9%)

• Inflation has accelerated by 1.6% m/m versus 1.8% m/m expected, after 0.6% m/m the prior month.
• Energy prices were up by 6.8% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month), and up by 4.9% y/y (-3.1% y/y prior month).
• Prices of goods were up by 1.7% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month; services were up by 0.3% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month); the yearly trend on services has slowed down from 3.4% y/y to 3.2% y/y.

 

Germany: Retail sales (Feb.): -0.6% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -0.9%)

• Sales have contracted further over the month.
• The largest fall was seen in food products, while purchases have increased for clothes, IT goods and furniture; internet sales were also positive.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (March): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed remained stable over the month.
• Over the past two months, vacancies have slightly increased after a long period of decline.

 

Poland: CPI (March): 1% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to sharp acceleration of inflation; energy prices were higher by 15.4% m/m (8.5% y/y) over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.1% y/y after 2.5% y/y the prior month.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (March): 0.9% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Prices have strongly regained over the month after some weakness past months; yearly trend has also regained to 2.2% y/y after 1% y/y the prior month.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 8.5% (prior: 8.2% revised from 8.1%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month.