每日宏观动态

UK: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Prices of energy were down by 1.8% m/m (-0.5% m/m prior month) and prices for clothes and food were also down over the month.
• Services were up by 0.5% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month) due to new rises in transport, package holidays and insurance sectors.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.8% to 2.6% y/y and services from 3.7% y/y to 3.6% y/y. Core inflation remained quite stable around 2.6% y/y
• This should comfort BoE's wait-and-see strategy and reinforces probability the BoE to remain on hold in H2-26.

UK: PPI Input prices (June): -2.0% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.2%)

• Prices of materials have declined by 2.2% m/m, while fuel prices have rebounded by 4.5% m/m.
• Yearly trend has declined from 9.3% y/y prior month to 7.3% y/y.

UK: PPI Output prices (June): 0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.5%)

• Oil prices were down by 5.9% m/m; core inflation was down by 0.5% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.7% y/y prior month to 3.5% y/y.

Poland: Retail sales (June): 1.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.7%)

• Sales have rebounded driven by higher purchases of autos and clothes over the month.
• Sales were up by 6.2% y/y after 3.0% y/y prior month.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (July): 101.2 (prior: 102)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month, due to lower orders, while inventories of finished goods have increased.
• Sentiment on production and exports remained positive.

Germany: Zew (July): 26.3 vs 15.3 expected (prior: 10.5)

• Expectations have strongly rebounded over the month after very depressed level seen past April; sentiment on current situation has improved (index less negative: -77.6 after -81 prior month).
• By sector, sentiment has improved for chemical, engineering, retail and construction, while it has deteriorated for autos.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (May): 4.9% as expected (prior: 4.9%)

• Claimant count (June) was stable at 4.4%; jobless claims were up by 6.7k after 1.2 k revised lower) and payrolls were down by 4K (+3k the prior month); the largest fall in payrolls were seen in March-April.
• The 3M (March-May) employment was up by 148 k after 99 k the prior period.
• June vacancies have stabilized at 712 k (710 k prior month) after a regular decreasing trend over the past months.
• Labor has stabilized but it remains fragile.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (May): 4.3% y/y vs 4.5% expected (prior: 4.4%)

• Trend in wage growth remained on moderation; but wages in public sector have shown accelerating trend, up by 5.5% y/y after 5.2% y/y the prior month; wage growth in services has moderated to 4.6% y/y after 4.7% y/y.
• Global data and downward trend could satisfy the BoE, but economic policy changes could fuel large disparities across sectors and concerns on wage growth trend.

Switzerland: Trade balance (June): 3.80 Bn CHF (prior: 5.53Bn)

• Real exports were down by 6% m/m (4.4% m/m prior month) and real imports were down by 1.6% m/m (0.5% m/m the prior month).

Germany: PPI (June): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Prices of energy were down by 1.8% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month), while basic goods prices were up by 0.7% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.2% y/y prior month to 1.8% y/y; energy prices have declined from 2.5% y/y to 0.4% y/y, while basic goods prices were up by 5.1% y/y after 4.2% y/y prior month.

Poland: Industrial production (June): 2% m/m vs 2.7% expected (prior: -0.8%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded over the month, driven by manufacturing sector, up by 2.5% m/m (-0.8% m/m prior month); on the opposite, activity has contracted over the month in mining and electricity segments.

Poland: PPI (June): -0.2%m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0%)

• Yearly trend declined from 2.4% y/y prior month to 1.7% y/y. prices of mining were down by 1.7% m/m after 2.7% m/m prior month.

US: Housing starts (June): 1427k vs 1310k expected (prior: 1199k revised from 1177k)

• Housing starts have decreased for single-family houses (from 897 k to 895 k) but strongly rebounded for multifamily houses (from 302 k to 532k, figures more in line with past months levels).
• Building permits have decreased from 1410 k to 1367 k with a decline in both categories.

US: Industrial production (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Manufacturing production was flat after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Production of autos was strongly up over the month, while activity for metals and machinery was down.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (July): 54.4 vs 51 expected (prior: 49.5)

• Preliminary consumer confidence pointed to a strong rebound; opinions on current situation have strongly rebounded and expectations have made new rise.
• Opinions have improved about personal financial situation, and the balance of future income versus future inflation has improved over the month.
• There was less concern on unemployment and stable rates are expected as well as stable gasoline prices.
• Willingness to buy major items, autos and houses has rebounded over the month.
• 12M Inflation expectations have decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, and the 5-10y inflation expectations remained stable at 3.3%.

Eurozone: CPI (June): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly decline in prices; energy prices were down by 1.8% m/m (-1.2% m/m prior month), and food prices have also decreased. Good prices were down by 0.4% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month), while services were up by 0.5% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined for food (1.5% after 1.9% y/y), energy (8.5 after 10.8% y/y), goods (0.7% after 0.9% y/y) and services (3.2% after 3.5% y/y prior month).
• Headline inflation declined from 3.2% to 2.8% y/y and core inflation from 2.6% to 2.4% y/y. This will give more time for the ECB, and no rate hike is expected next week.