每日宏观动态

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug.22): 203k vs 208k expected (prior: 207k revised from 206k)

• Continuing claims: 1778 k after 1796 k prior week.

US: Wholesale inventories (July): 1.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

• Inventories at retail sector have increased by 0.7% m/m (-0.2% m/m the prior month), mainly driven by autos.

Eurozone: M3 (July): 3.4% y/y vs 3.5% expected (prior: 3.3%)

• M2 remained on stable trend at 3.3% y/y, while M1 has slowed down from 3.5% y/y prior month to 3.1% y/y.
• Credit to private sector was up by 3.5% y/y after 3.2% y/y the prior month.
• Despite rising ECB rates, global uncertainty and volatile financial conditions, the monetary policy seems not particularly restrictive in the Eurozone.

France: Producer Prices (July): 1.1% m/m (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.6%)

• Energy prices were up by 2.9% m/m.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.8% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Sept.): -26.6 vs -29.5 expected (prior: -29.4 revised from -29.6)

• Consumer sentiment has improved more than expected over the month; the change was mainly driven by rising income expectations after several depressed months and less negative business expectations.
• Preference for saving has slightly decreased in parallel.

Norway: GDP Mainland (Q2-26): 0.3% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Growth was sustained but mainly driven by public consumption and global investment.
• Consumption has contracted over the quarter.

Brazil: Unemployment rate (July): 5.3% as expected (prior: 5.4%)

• Unemployed has slightly decreased over the month.

Brazil: Current account (July): -8110 M$ vs -6700 M$ expected (prior: -2693 M$ revised from -2330 M$)

• Current account deficit has increased over the month; foreign direct investment has decreased from the prior month but remained large (USD 7460 M).
• On cumulative 12M, current account deficit has reached 2.49% of while FDI topped 3.50% of GDP.

US: Personal income (July): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Total wage was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
• Disposable income was strongly up by 0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.

US: Personal spending (July): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Spending was better than consensus expectations, but on moderate trend compared to prior month.
• Purchases came higher in services (finance, health care and transport) but have decreased on gasoline, autos and leisure.
• The saving ratio has increased over the month back to 3.0% after 2.6% the prior month.

US: Core PCE deflator (July): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Yearly trend remained stable at 3.3% y/y.
• Next month, technical changes in calculation at sector levels could lower the yearly trend of core PCE.

US: Durable goods orders (July): 1.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to stronger orders, due to a rebound in civil aircrafts orders.
• Orders for capital goods nondefense ex aircrafts (core orders were up by 0.2% m/m after strong 1.7% m/m the prior month.
• Orders were sustained over the month for autos, machinery and primary metals.
• Shipments were up by 1% m/m (1% m/m prior month) and up by 1.4% m/m for core orders.
• Inventories were up by 0.4% m/m and up by 0.2% m/m for core orders.

US: GDP (Q2-26): 1.5% q/q as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• The second estimate of GDP has shown only minor changes at sector level.
• Consumption was up by 3.4% q/q after 0.5% q/q (revised from 3.2% in first estimate (services were revised higher but purchases of durable goods revised down).
• Investment was confirmed strong: a rebound in residential investment (1.3% q/q after -7.8% q/q in Q1); and still sustained rise in equipment (13.6% q/q after 15.8% q/q) and in IT-R&D up by 8.8% after 13.8%q/q in Q1).
• Imports have strongly rebounded, and net exports have contributed negatively to GDP (-1.14 pp); the decline in inventories have also contributed negatively to GDP (-0.72 pp).
• Private domestic demand remained strong, up by 4.2% q/q (3.9% in first estimate) after 1.7% q/q in Q1.

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (June): 2.10% y/y vs 1.80% expected (prior: 1.65% revised from 1.63%)

• Prices rose 0.24% m/m after 0.18% in the prior month. Across the 20 major cities, half posted declines both on the month and on the year.
• The spectrum of price changes remained large on the yearly trend, from -6.4% y/y in Las Vegas to +6.2% y/y in Chicago.

US: New home sales (Jul): 607k vs 620k expected (prior: 678k revised from 628k)

• Sales of new homes sank by 10.5% in July, as elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Aug): 89.4 vs 90.2 expected (prior: 90.2 revised from 90.8)

• US consumer confidence fell in August, as dearer gasoline continued to squeeze households’ expectations for the cost of living. Respondents also turned more downbeat about the outlook for the jobs market.
• The expectations index (six-months ahead) slipped to 68.7 from 74.7, defying forecasts for a broadly steady reading. The survey, conducted from August 3rd to 16th, coincided with average pump prices holding above $4 a gallon, as renewed tensions pushed energy costs higher.

France: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 86 vs 87 expected (prior: 86)

• Consumer sentiment remained broadly stable over the month, but details pointed towards renewed worries.
• Views were less negative on inflation, but worries returned about the economy, future purchases, and unemployment.
• Preference for savings has increased again after some easing the prior month.

Germany: IFO (Aug.): 88.8 vs 87.2 expected (prior: 86.7 revised from 86.6)

• Business confidence has rebounded on both current situation (index at 88.5 after 86.5 prior month) and expectations (index at 89.1 after 86.8).
• The improvement was broad-based across sectors and was driven by less negative views on both manufacturing and services over the month. Thus, the IFO looks more positive than PMI index; PMI services fell over the month, while manufacturing PMI rebounded.

Germany: GDP (Q2-26): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Growth was better than expected in the second estimate.
• Growth was driven by a strong export performance while capex declined over the quarter and public and private consumption was just up by 0.1% q/q.

Spain: PPI (July): 3% m/m (prior: 0%)

• Energy prices were up by 9% m/m and up by 20% y/y.
• Annual rate has accelerated from 7% y/y the prior month to 9.2% y/y.

Poland: Unemployment rate (July): 5.8% vs 5.9% expected (prior: 5.8%)

• The number of unemployed people increased slightly but the unemployment rate remained stable.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 53.2 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 53.9)

• Flash estimates have pointed to some consolidation in business confidence over the month; production has slightly increased, but some moderation was seen in new orders and constraints have increased due to longer delivery.
• Employment has slightly increased while selling prices have moderated.

US: Services PMI (Aug.): 56.8 vs 54 expected (prior: 54.6)

• First estimates for confidence in services have strongly accelerated over the month.
• Opinions have rebounded on new orders and employment has increased.
• Selling prices were on the rise but at moderate pace.
• Thanks to services, the composite PMI has accelerated further from 54.5 to 56.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Aug.): -14 vs -18 expected (prior: -17)

• Consumer confidence was less negative over the month; opinions have relatively improved about personal financial situation, economic outlook and future purchases.
• The index was again back to pre-covid levels.

UK: Retail sales (July): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 1%)

• Sales were down in all sectors, including internet sales, except food over the month, after sustained purchases the prior month.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 51.5 as expected (prior: 51.9)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased over the month, but the index remained above 50 in this flash estimate.
• New orders have decreased from 52.3 prior month to 51. Situation in the Middle East remained a source of concerns.
• Costs and prices remained on the rise.

UK: Services PMI (Aug.): 52.8 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 52.1)

• Flash estimates have pointed to a larger than expected rebound in confidence in services; demand has increased from firms and consumers, and new orders index has increased to 51.3 after 50.8 prior month.
• Employment remained under constraints and pressures on prices have increased further.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 52.8 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Flash estimate pointed to another rebound in confidence, driven by higher new orders. Activity was firmer and exports have increased for the first time since many months. Production has rebounded driven by Germany.
• Employment has marginally increased over the month; costs have shown a modest increase.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Aug.): 51.7 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.7)

• The index remained quite stable in the flash estimate; activity and exports were better oriented over the month, but new orders index has marginally decreased over the month.
• Employment has increased over the month and prices remained on the rise.
• Preliminary data have pointed to falling index in France (from 49.6 prior month to 48.4) and in Germany (from 49.8 to 48.5), leaving peripherals driving the trend.

France: Business confidence (Aug.): 98 as expected (prior: 97)

• Business confidence has rebounded over the month, driven by higher confidence in manufacturing sector (103 after 101).
• Views on own production and exports were more positive; prices remained on rising trend.
• In parallel, index for services has increased from 99 to 100 over the month.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (July): 8.6% vs 8.8% expected (prior: 8.9%)

• Unemployed has decreased after a strong rebound in June.

Switzerland: M3 (July): 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.6%)

• M1 growth has slowed down from 8.3% y/y prior month to 6.4% y/y, and M2 from 5.7% to 4.2% y/y.
• Time deposits and time savings have decreased over the month.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Aug.): -15.5 vs -16 expected (prior: -15.9)

• Preliminary data for consumer confidence has pointed to less negative situation from the prior month (no details offered); nevertheless, the index remained at low level.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 90.8 (prior: 89.8)

• Consumer confidence has improved on financial situation, economic outlook and purchases.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 102.4 (prior: 101.2)

• Business confidence has improved about production, new orders, exports and also employment over the month.