每日宏观动态
星期四, 十月 29
Strong US Q3 GDP growth; no change in ECB’s key rates
US: GDP (Q3-26): 3.4% q/q vs 3.2% expected (prior: 2.2%)
- Activity was very strong over the quarter, thanks to robust investment and solid consumption.
- Consumption was up by 3.8% q/q (same as in Q2), driven by both purchases of goods (3% q/q) and services (4.1% q/q after 3.4% in Q2).
- Separately, government consumption (defense and non-defense) was up by a strong 5.3% q/q after -0.1% q/q in Q2.
- Investment was particularly strong: structures up by 5.4%q/q (0.1% q/q in Q2), equipment (20.9% q/q after 13.4% q/q) and R&D (8.4% q/q after 9.2%). On the opposite, residential investment has plunged, down by 3.3% q/q after 2.8% q/q in Q2.
- Exports were down by 5.7% q/q and imports up by 19.7% q/q; net exports have been a drag on GDP by 3.32 pp (-1.1 pp in Q2).
- Inventories have strongly rebounded, adding 1.61 pp to Q3 GDP (-0.53 pp in Q2).
- Final sales to private sector were up by 4.9% q/q after 4.6% q/q; definitely, a strong growth trend.
US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.10): 194k vs 198k expected (prior: 195k revised from 194k)
- Continuing claims: 1701 k after 1722 k the prior week.
US: Personal income (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)
- Wages were up by 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month) and disposable income up by 0.2 % m/m (0.3% m/m prior month).
- Real disposable income was down by 0.3% m/m after 0% prior month.
- Saving ratio has decreased from 4.0% prior month to 3.8%.
US: Personal spending (Sept.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.9%)
- Real purchases of goods have decreased over the month, while services remained on the rise, driven by food services.
US: Core PCE (Sept.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)
- PCE was driven up by energy prices to 3.4% y/y after 3.4% y/y.
- Core PCE was in line with monthly estimates and up by 3.1% y/y after 3.0% y/y the prior month.
- Core goods were up by 0.2% m/m, driven by prices of autos and other durable; core services were up by 0.4% m/m, driven by transport and accommodation sectors.
- 47% of subcomponents were still above 3% y/y (52% the prior month): the breath of inflation was mentioned by Warsh in past meetings: it has decreased but remained too high.
ECB meeting: no change in key rates, as expected (deposit rate at 2.50%)
- The statement remained positive but pointed to rising risks.
- Energy prices will fuel upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.
- There is still no impact from energy on core inflation and wage growth.
- The tone was more worried as statement mentioned that the duration and magnitude of the energy shock will drive inflation up and growth lower. This pointed to more cautious views about the future inflation-growth pattern for the next quarters.
- The statement mentioned that tighter financing conditions should weigh down on inflation and growth; the first time the ECB refers to financial conditions and recognizes weighing down on activity, partly replacing ECB action.
- On forward guidance, the ECB mentioned the policy is “well positioned “, a sign that the ECB could wait further before another rate adjustment.
- From the Q&A:
- The meeting was a “no Hike decision” as rate adjustment was discussed during the meeting, but it was decided unanimously not to move as the policy is viewed as well positioned.
- Stable core inflation and tighter financial conditions were the reasons for not moving on rates today.
- Upside risks weigh on core inflation, but they have not accelerated over the month.
- But Ms Lagarde mentioned several times that the direction of travel is clear (on the rise); nevertheless, decision will be taken meeting by meeting.
- Ms Lagarde reminded that the ECB has tools to intervene if fragmentation and transmission risks are identified.
- Ms Lagarde announced officially her departure from the ECB on Feb. 7th, 2027.
Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Oct.): -3.4 vs -3.8 expected (prior: -3.9 revised from -3.8)
- Business confidence has slightly improved over the month, contrary to consensus expectations. The index remained on a rising trend.
- Details offered a mixed picture: more positive sentiment on past production, employment and selling prices; a less negative view on new orders and a small decrease in future production.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Oct.): -17.9 as expected (prior: -16.8)
- Sentiment among consumers has decreased from the prior month. In 2026, the index stays below the levels seen in 2024-25.
- The large part of this decline was due to deteriorating past conditions, while views on future conditions were cautious or slightly negative.
- The main concerns remained financial situation, unemployment and future economy while views on future purchases have decreased.
Eurozone: Services confidence (Oct.): 5.3 vs 5.6 expected (prior: 5.9 revised from 6.1)
- Confidence in services has slightly decreased over the month, but index remained high compared to prior quarters.
- Sentiment has sharpy declined on current demand but just eased on current activity. Views on future demand have regained, in parallel with higher prices expected.
- Sentiment has decreased in retail and construction sectors.
Italy: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 6.3% vs 6.2% expected (prior: 6.2%)
- Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.
Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Oct.): 91.9 vs 92 expected (prior: 91.9)
- Business sentiment remained stable over the month; in parallel, it has increased in construction and total services but decreased in the retail sector.
Italy: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 90.3 vs 91 expected (prior: 91.2)
- Consumer sentiment has decreased over the month.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (Sept.): -1.4% y/y (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.4%)
- Sales (real terms) were down by 0.4% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
- Purchases of food, household goods and health products have regained over the month, while other sectors have contracted.
Sweden: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 94.3 (prior: 102.3 revised from 102.2)
- Consumer confidence has decreased due to lower sentiment on both global and personal level.
Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Oct.): 111.5 (prior: 106.5 revised from 106.3)
- Business sentiment has regained in manufacturing and was stable in the trade sector over the month.
Sweden: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.4% m/m (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)
- Sales have slowed down to 5.5% y/y after 7.2% y/y prior month.
Sweden: GDP (Q3-26): 0.4% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.4%)
- No details were available, but it appeared consumption and exports have supported the activity.
UK: M4 (Sept.): 3.9% y/y (prior: 4.5% revised from 4.4%)
- Mortgage approvals have decreased from 54.8 k prior month to 53.4 k.
- M4 lending has slowed down from 6.7% y/y prior month to 6.2% y/y.
- Total credit for housing and consumer credit cards have decreased over the month.
星期三, 十月 28
German consumer confidence remained depressed
US: Wholesale inventories (Sept.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Inventories of nondurable goods have increased over the month, but they decreased for autos.
Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Nov.): -30.8 vs -30.3 expected (prior: -30.6)
- Consumer confidence remained depressed after the fall seen in Oct.; views on business outlook have stabilized while they have deteriorated on income and saving.
Italy: PPI (Sept.): 3.6% m/m (prior: 3.1%)
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 13.5% y/y prior month to 17.4% y/y.
Norway: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.4% m/m (prior: 0.6%)
- Sales remained volatile over the prior months.
星期二, 十月 27
US: rebounding durable goods orders and consumer confidence (Conference Board index)
US: Durable goods orders (Sept.): 1.8% m/m vs 1.9% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%)
- Preliminary data were just one notch below expectations, but a strong rebound was in place from past month.
- Orders were boosted by civilian aircraft and were also strong over the month for computers, machinery and metals.
- Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core orders) were up by 0.5% m/m after 1.6% m/m prior month.
- Shipments were up by 0.9% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month) and up for core orders by a strong 1.2% m/m ( 0.6% m/m prior month); these data point to probably another strong and positive momentum for order goods next month and an ongoing momentum in IT-AI related sectors.
- Inventories were up by 0.3% (0.5% m/m prior month) and up by 0.5% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month) for core orders.
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Aug.): 2.65% y/y vs 2.61% expected (prior: 2.47%)
- Prices were up by 0.27% m/m (0.32% m/m prior month).
- Over the 20 cities under review, only 6 have offered contraction in prices (3M annualized yearly trend).
US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Oct.): -2 vs 0 expected (prior: -2)
- Business confidence remained negative over the month; the index decreased in both current conditions and in the 6-M view.
- Views were mixed on current conditions: shipments have decreased but orders remained firm while disruption has increased; opinions on capex and employment have decreased while prices paid and selling prices remained on the rise.
- The 6-M views have decreased, notably on shipments, but opinions were better oriented on capex and employment was seen as stable.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Oct.): 91.7 vs 81 expected (prior: 84.2 revised from 81.9)
- Consumer sentiment has strongly rebounded, and prior month data were revised up.
- Opinions have improved on both current conditions and on expectations.
- Views were more positive on economic conditions and also employment.
- Willingness to purchase large items and houses has decreased over the month while it has improved for autos.
- Inflation expectations (average 12 M) have decreased from 6% y/y prior month to 5.8%.
US: New home sales (Sept.): 676k vs 651k expected (prior: 680k revised from 684k)
- Sales were better than expected but they declined from the prior month.
- Two districts have shown a rebound in sales (West and Northeast), while the other two (South, Midwest) have decreased further.
- Average prices of houses sold were up by 0.4% m/m after -10.2% m/m the prior month.
Eurozone: M3 (Sept.): 3.5% y/y vs 3.4% expected (prior: 3.5%)
- Growth of monetary aggregates remained stable over the month, except for M1, trending lower at 2.7% y/y after 2.9% y/y prior month.
- Credit to the private sector remained on stable growth trend at 3.6% y/y.
- Separately, the ECB released its quarterly (Q3-26) credit survey on banks and pointed that the net tightening from banks has increased upon consumer and firms' lending while it was stable on housing; the tightening was mainly coming from France, while credit standards remained ease in Germany, Spain and Italy.
- Net demand has also weakened in all sectors over the quarter: it has decreased the most in France, Germany and Italy.
France: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 80 vs 85 expected (prior: 85 revised from 86)
- Consumer sentiment has sharply declined over the month, reflecting large political instability and social unrest.
- Opinions have deteriorated the most about personal financial situation and mounting fears of higher unemployment; views on economic outlook have also decreased over the month, as seen in the PMI survey (supply side).
Spain: Unemployment rate (Q3-26): 10.18% (prior: 9.87%)
- Unemployed has increased by 4% over the period. The ratio remained close to low level, but it became more volatile in H1-26 and stopped its multi-year decrease.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 8.4% (prior: 7.9% revised from 7.8%)
- Unemployed has increased over the month.
星期一, 十月 26
German business confidence (IFO) on the rise
Germany: IFO (Oct.): 90.2 vs 89.9 expected (prior: 89.9)
- Business sentiment has increased further; views on current conditions have decreased (index down from 89.5 to 88.8), but expectations have increased further (index at 91.6 after 90.4 prior month).
- By sector, views were contrasted: opinions have strongly improved in the manufacturing sector (index turned positive after being negative for several months); views were less negative in the construction sector, while they have deteriorated in services.
Spain: PPI (Sept.): 4% m/m (prior: 2.9%)
- Energy (10% m/m) and electricity prices (9.1% m/m) have strongly rebounded over the month, and manufacturing prices were up by 2.5% m/m.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 13.2% y/y prior month to 18.3% y/y.
星期五, 十月 23
PMI manufacturing and services: higher in the UK, mixed in the US and lower in the eurozone
US: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 56 vs 55.5 expected (prior: 55.9)
- Flash index has pointed to modest increase in sentiment contrary to consensus expectations.
- Views on activity were positive while new orders have increased slowly; export performances were better oriented and employment has strongly regained.
- Selling prices have accelerated further over the month.
US: Services PMI (Oct.): 57.9 vs 58 expected (prior: 58.8)
- Flash sentiment in services has decreased from the prior month on slightly slower activity, despite new orders remained positive.
- Exports have rebounded and employment has just moderately increased over the month.
- Selling prices remained on the rise.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 52.4 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 52.9)
- Flash estimate of business sentiment has decreased more than expected from the prior month, but index remained above 50.
- PMI has decreased for France (from 50.6 prior month to 49.3; new orders at 44.9), being back into contraction territory. Index has increased further in Germany (54.2) and in other countries. Nevertheless, German new orders have slightly decreased from the high level of 54.4 prior month to 53.6.
- Sentiment on exports has slightly decreased over the month; inventories have increased and disruption to supply chain was still mentioned.
- Input costs have increased due to energy, fuel and transport costs; prices have increased but slowly compared to past months.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Oct.): 51.7 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 53)
- Flash estimate has decreased more than expected over the month and new orders have also declined but both indices remained above the 50 level.
- The largest decrease was seen in France (from 51.2 to 48.4), below the 50 level, and new orders came back at low level of 45.9 (from 49.7).
- Business sentiment has also decreased in Germany (from 52.9 to 51.7) but remained above 50.
- Employment has slightly decreased, while prices and selling prices have increased but at slower pace than prior months.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -24 vs -14 expected (prior: -13)
- Consumer confidence has decreased over the month with falling opinions on financial situation, economic outlook and future purchases.
- The index was back to the low seen in April.
UK: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)
- Sales decreased more than expected over the month, but prior month’s data were higher.
- Internet sales have decreased the most over the month, while clothes and household goods remained positive.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 52.8 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.9)
- Flash business confidence has regained more than expected over the month and new orders have increased to 52.1 from 51.2 prior month.
- Activity was firmer related to AI investment and exports were better oriented. Employment has slightly declined over the month, while costs remained on the rise.
- Selling prices have increased but at slower pace.
UK: Services PMI (Oct.): 53.1 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.9)
- Flash index pointed in favor a new rebound in activity and in new orders (index up to 53.3 from 50.3 the prior month).
- Activity was boosted by AI and related services in technology.
- Employment has increased again over the month; selling prices have increased further but at a slower pace than prior month.
Poland: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 5.8% as expected (prior: 5.8%)
- Unemployed marginally increased over the month but the ratio remained stable.