每日宏观动态

Germany: GDP (Q2-25): -0.3% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Q2 GDP was strongly revised down from first estimate (-0.1%q).
• By sector, consumption has slowed down from 0.6%q in Q1 to 0.1%q; capex was down by 1.4% q (0.3% in Q1, with a sharp fall in construction and equipment). Net trade contribution was negative over the quarter.
• On the positive, public spending was strong up by 0.8%q after -0.3%q in Q1.
• The macro scenario should turn more constructive in H2-25 and even more in 2026, as public support will have more positive and effective effects on activity.

France: Business confidence (Aug.): 96 vs 97 expected (prior: 96)

• Confidence in manufacturing stayed at 96 over the month.
• Details offered a mixed picture as views on orders, global and own production remained depressed over the month.
• Separately, confidence has decreased in services (index at 95 from 96.3 prior month) on lower future demand but rising prices.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Aug.): -17 vs -19 expected (prior: -19)

• Consumer confidence has slightly improved from the prior month.
• The source of improvement was a more positive view on future personal financial situation, betting on lower inflation.
• Nevertheless, consumers remained cautious on future economic situation.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (July): 8.9% vs 8.6% expected (prior: 8.3%)

• Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) stayed volatile over past months, but trend is rising.

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug.16): 235k vs 225k expected (prior: 224k)

• Continuing claims: 1972 k after 1942 k the prior week.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Aug.): -0.3 vs 6.5 expected (prior: 15.9)

• A negative surprise in falling regional business confidence; opinions on current views have sharpy declined while the 6-month index has rebounded (index at 25 after 21.5 the prior month).
• On current situation, views have declined for new orders, shipments and employment while prices were on a strong rise.
• The 6-month views have regained on expected rebound in new orders and employment.

 

US: Existing home sales (July): 4.01M vs 3.92M expected (prior: 3.93M)

• Over the month, sales of single family and multi-family houses have both rebounded by 2% m/m.
• Yearly prices were up by 0.2% y/y; prices for single family houses were up by 0.3% y/y while prices of multi-family houses were down by 1.2% y/y.

 

US: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 53.3 vs 49.7 expected (prior: 49.8)

• Flash estimates have pointed to a large rebound in business sentiment; the rebound was broad-based across sub-components: production, new orders, inventories and employment.
• Prices have also sharply regained with the passthrough of tariffs.

 

US: Services PMI (Aug.): 55.4 vs 54.2 expected (prior: 55.7)

• Sentiment on services has just marginally decreased from the prior month and the index remained high.
• Firms were cautious on current activity, but positive on employment.
• Prices have shown a sharp rise due to passthrough of tariffs to clients.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 50.5 vs 49.5 expected (prior: 49.8)

• Flash estimates have shown that business sentiment has regained after the trade deal with the US, but firms remained cautious.
• Opinions have increased on production and new orders (index at 50.7) for eurozone and also for both France (index back to 49.9) and Germany (index at 49.9).
• Nevertheless, constraints remained as new export orders have decreased, employment was lower than the prior month, inventories on reduction and costs-prices remained on a moderate rise.

 

Eurozone: Services PMI (Aug.): 50.7 vs 50.8 expected (prior: 51)

• Flash estimate has pointed to slightly lower confidence in services, but the index remained above the 50 mark and slightly higher than in manufacturing.
• New orders have regained over the month (index at 50.6) but total index and new orders have both decreased over the month for Germany and France, suggesting the support remained in place in peripheral countries.
• Employment remained globally positive and prices also on the rise.
• Composite PMI (51.1 after 50.9) was better oriented thanks to improving manufacturing and resilient services; but details offered a mixed picture with still various sources of fragilities.

 

Poland: Industrial production (July): 0.2% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.1%)

• Activity was boosted by the mining and electricity-gas sectors, while manufacturing production has contracted further (-0.2% m/m after -1.1% m/m prior month).

 

Switzerland: M3 (July): 4.7% y/y (prior: 4.3%)

• Monetary aggregates continue to regain and time deposits to decline in favor of time savings.
• M1 was up by 21.1% y/y after 17.8% y/y prior month and M2 up by 16.4% y/y after 14.8% y/y.

 

Switzerland: Trade balance (July): 4.59 Bn CHF (prior: 5.73Bn)

• Real exports: -2.7% m/m after 7.3% m/m prior month; real imports: -0.3% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month.
• Exports of gold and watches have accelerated just before the rise in US tariffs; ongoing negotiations between US, pharma companies and Swiss government.

 

Norway: GDP Mainland (Q2-25): 0.6% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1%)

• Activity was supported by a still sustained consumption and by a rebound in public spending and in investment over the quarter.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 47.3 vs 48.3 expected (prior: 48)

• Business confidence has eroded in manufacturing over the month; opinions have decreased on production and new orders.

 

UK: Services PMI (Aug.): 53.6 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.8)

• Flash estimates have pointed to higher confidence in services; opinions have improved on current activity and on employment.
• Prices were also on a sharp rise.

Eurozone: CPI (July): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Flat monthly inflation was confirmed in final data; energy prices were up by 1% m/m (-2.4% y/y) and food up by 0.2% m/m (up by 3.3% y/y), while good prices were down by 2.4% m/m thanks to discount.
• Services were up by 1.1% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and up by 3.2% y/y.
• Yearly trend remained stable for both headline inflation at 2.0% and core inflation at 2.3% y/y. While trend in energy remained negative and was large contributor to disinflation, services were resilient due to seasonal demand and rebound in prices. Nothing in data which should push the ECB to ease further next month.

 

Germany: PPI (July): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices were down for consumer goods (-0.1% m/m after 0.3 % m/m prior month) and basic goods (-0.3% m/m after -0.2% m/m); on the opposite, energy prices were up by 0.1% m/m and prices of capital goods up by 0.1% m/m.
• Yearly trend has declined from -1.3% y/y prior month to -1.5% y/y.

 

UK: CPI (July): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Monthly inflation change was contained but rises in services were stronger and lead to higher yearly trend.
• Prices of goods have declined over the month (-0.7% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month) due to falling prices in clothes, housing and health sectors; energy prices were down by 2% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month.
• Services were up by a strong 0.7% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month due to strong rises in travel-transport and recreation sectors; services were up by 5% y/y after 4.7% y/y prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.8% y/y after 3.6% y/y prior month and from 3.7% to 3.8% y/y on core inflation. These inflation data reduce the possibility for the BoE to ease further.

US: Housing starts (July): 1428k vs 1297k expected (prior: 1358k revised from 1321k)

• A large rebound in monthly data driven by both multifamily houses and to a lesser extend also single-family houses.
• Data were highly volatile and evolved in a very large range of 1285 k/1500k over the past two years.
• Building permits have decreased from 1393 k the prior month to 1354 k, due to a decrease in multifamily houses.
• Trend in housing looks negative and it should require another round of Fed easing and new constructions to recover on a positive trend.