每日宏观动态

US: Non-farm payrolls (Jan.): 130k vs 35k expected (prior: 48k revised from 50k)

• Unemployment ratio has declined from 4.4% prior month to 4.3%.
• Labor date came stronger than expected but job creations were in fact concentrated in one sector: private Education- health up by 137 k after 53 k the prior month.
• Job creations were firmer in construction (33 k after -4 K, probably related to weather effects), and in manufacturing up by 5 k after -8 k the prior month.
• Services were up by 136 k after 76 k the prior month. Job creations were limited in business services (34 k after 15 k) and were negative for trade-transport, finance, communication and public sectors. As mentioned, creations were centered into private education-health, a generally non-cyclical sector.
• Wages were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month and up by 3.7% y/y (3.8% y/y prior month).
• All measures of unemployment ratio were slightly down over the month.
• 2025 employment data were also sharply revised down by 862 k.
• ADP and Jolts data are not in line with non-farm payrolls, which pointed to one sector - education-health, driving the monthly job creations: real trend in labor remained unclear despite the positive surprises seen in payrolls.

Italy: Industrial production (Dec.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.5%)

• Industrial activity has contracted for intermediate and durable consumer goods over the month, while production was higher in the energy sector.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Jan.): 99.3 vs 99.8 expected (prior: 99.5)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased for small firms contrary to consensus expectations.
• Sentiment remained positive on future sales but turned more cautious on other items (future economy) and uncertainty was on the rise over the month.

US: Employment cost index (Q4-25): 0.7% q/q vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Employment cost has increased but at a slower pace than expected and from the prior quarter.
• Costs in good producing were up by 0.6% q/q (1.0% q/q the prior quarter) and up in services by 0.8% q/q (same pace as in Q3-25).
• Wages were up by 0.7%q/q after 0.8% q/q the prior quarter; the pace was broad based across sectors, except a higher pace seen in education (2.1%q) and leisure (1.0% q/q).

US: Retail sales (Dec.): 0% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Sales were weaker than expected over the month, but represented a pause after strong numbers seen in Nov. and also sustained sales in specific sectors in Oct.
• Sales have increased for food, building materials, sport, and gasoline stations; they decreased for autos, furniture, electronic goods and clothes. Sales ex autos, building materials, gasoline and food were down by 0.1% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Sales were strong in Nov. and were also boosted by internet sales (clothes, sport goods) in Oct.; momentum in sales has shifted from traditional year-end sales to specific discount days (Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Amazone days...); if these sales numbers are not indicative of a new trend, they pointed to highly volatile sales across sectors; while refunding from Treasury could refuel momentum in sales, notably for high tax payers, labor support could be justified to secure consumption trend, notably for low-wages categories.

US: Business inventories (Nov.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Inventories have decreased for autos but increased for general merchandises over the month.
• Sales have increased, up by 0.6% m/m after -0.2% m/m the prior month.

France: Unemployment rate (Q4-25): 7.7% vs 7.5% expected (prior: 7.5%)

• The unemployment ratio has increased at year end, particularly for 15–24-year categories.

Norway: CPI (Jan.): 0.6% m/m (prior: 0.1%)

• Inflation has reaccelerated over the month due to prices of rents, cars and electricity; core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.1% prior month to 3.6% y/y, and from 3.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y on core inflation.

Sweden: Industrial production (Dec.): 1.6% m/m (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.5%)

• Activity has rebounded in Dec.: production in industry was up by 5.1% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month and up in services by 0.8% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.

Sweden: Retail sales (Dec.): -3.7% m/m (prior: 3.0% revised from 1%)

• Household consumption has contracted in Dec; yearly trend has slowed down from 4.6% y/y prior month to 0.5% y/y.

Brazil: CPI (Jan.): 0.33% m/m vs 0.32% expected (prior: 0.33%)

• Monthly inflation has accelerated in several sectors such as: transport, health, personal goods and communication; prices decreased for housing and clothes over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 4.26% y/y prior month to 4.44% y/y.

Turkey: Industrial production (Dec.): 1.2% m/m (prior: 2.5%)

• Production in manufacturing was up by 1% m/m after 3.1% m/m prior month, while activity in utility has rebounded by 4.1% m/m after -0.4% m/m the prior month.

Norway: GDP Mainland (Q4-25): 0.4% q/q as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Activity has accelerated at year-end; consumption was up by 1%q due to strong purchases of autos (ahead of changes in VAT). Investment was in sharp rebound, up by 7.2%q, due to defense spending in several sectors.
• Net trade had negative contribution, due to a strong rise in imports (due to autos) despite exports were strong (3.6%q).
• Inventories contribution was negative over the quarter.
• Growth reached 1.8% in 2025 and a 1.5%-1.7% range is expected in 2026.

Norway: PPI incl. Oil (Jan.): 8.9% m/m (prior: -1.5%)

• Yearly trend has rebounded from -11.4% y/y prior month to -7.8% y/y.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Jan.): -30.1 vs -29.5 expected (prior: -30.7)

• Consumer sentiment has slightly increased over the month, but slightly less than expected.
• Compared to prior month, opinions were stable about the economic outlook, have improved on financial situation and were more constructive on future purchases.
• The index is on a slow rebuilding process.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb): 57.3 vs 55.0 expected (prior: 56.4)

• Consumer confidence has climbed to its highest level in six months, rebounding from a dip in late 2025. Americans are feeling more optimistic about both current and future economic conditions. Notably, one-year inflation expectations dropped from 4.0% to 3.5%, while long-term expectations (5-10 years) remained steady at 3.5%.
• The rise in sentiment was particularly strong among stockholders, buoyed by the S&P 500 nearing record highs during the survey period. This market rally lifted perceptions of personal financial health to a four-month peak.
• However, concerns linger over the job market and the ongoing impact of inflation on household finances, tempering the broader optimism.

Germany: Industrial production (Dec): -1.9% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.8%)

• Germany’s industrial sector stumbled at the close of 2025, with factory output falling 1.9% in December. Yet, the outlook for 2026 has brightened dramatically. New orders surged by 7.8% (the strongest jump in two years) and the business climate improved recently, signaling robust demand ahead.

Germany: Trade Balance (Dec): 17.1bn EUR vs 14.1bn expected (prior: 13.6bn revised from 13.1bn)

• Despite a year-on-year decline in overall trade with the US amid ongoing tariff wars, Germany maintained a robust monthly trade surplus of €17.1 billion. This was bolstered by an 8.9% surge in shipments to the US, defying the broader trend.