每日宏观动态

US: Housing starts (May): 1177k vs 1430k expected (prior: 1392k revised from 1465k)

• Housing starts have sharply declined over the month; the move was mainly driven by falling housing starts of multi-family houses, but single-family houses have also decreased. Prior month data were also revised down.
• Building permits have decreased from 1423 k the prior month to 1413 k, with single and multi- family houses both decreasing over the month.
• Activity in housing remained volatile and trend in housing starts has collapsed after some improvement the prior months.

Germany: Zew (June): -81 vs -78 expected (prior: -77.8)

• Business sentiment has deteriorated on current situation over the month.
• On the opposite, expectations have strongly rebounded, index being up to 10.5 from -10.2.
• Opinions have increased, or turned less negative from the prior month, in all sectors except construction.

Italy: CPI (May): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Final data confirmed rising yearly trend and still sustained monthly change.
• Prices of hotels-restaurants were up by 1.6% m/m after 2.1% m/m the prior month, while other prices remained in a 0%-0.2% m/m.
• Yearly trend was up to 3.2% y/y after 2.0% y/y the prior month.

Brazil: Retail sales (April): -0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from 0.3%)

• Broad sales have decreased, and prior month data were revised lower.
• All sectors except food-supermarkets have decreased over the month. Sales were up by 1.4% y/y after 6.5% y/y the prior month.

US: Empire manufacturing (June): 5.7 vs 13.5 expected (prior: 19.6)

• Sentiment has decreased over the month: opinions have decreased on new orders, shipments, delivery time and average workweek; prices paid and received have marginally decreased over the month.
• The 6-month index has also decreased from the prior month on lower prices and also lower capex; otherwise, the 6-month views on new orders, shipments and employment were on the rise.

US: Industrial production (May): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.7%)

• Manufacturing production was flat over the month after 0.7% m/m the prior month.
• Production of equipment goods was up by 0.6% m/m after 1.8% m/m the prior month, but activity in utilities was down by 0.4% m/m and consumer goods also down by 0.5% m/m.
• Besides these changes in sectors, activity was noticeably stronger for autos, computers, defense and space, and on gas over the month.
• While total production was volatile past months, trend was strong in some sectors such as defense and business equipment.

US: NAHB housing market index (June): 35 vs 37 expected (prior: 37)

• Sentiment in housing has decreased over the month after a rebound the prior month; data remained volatile past quarters.
• Opinions have decreased on current sales while views remained constructive on future sales of single-family houses.

Eurozone: Industrial production (April): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

• Production remained sustained for intermediate goods and has rebounded over the month for consumer goods.
• But activity has declined for energy and equipment sectors.

Germany: Wholesale price (May): -0.6% m/m (prior: 2.0%)

• Prices have declined from 6.3% y/y the prior month to 5.9% y/y.

Poland: CPI (May): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Final data confirmed the decline in monthly inflation; this was due to falling energy and transport prices, clothes and recreation. Prices for restaurants and health were on the rise over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.2% y/y to 3.1% y/y.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (May): 8.8% vs 8.7% expected (prior: 8.5%)

• Unemployed has increased and labor force has also increased in parallel.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (May): -0.4% m/m (prior: 0.8%)

• Prices of imports were down by 0.3% m/m (2.3% m/m prior month) and producer prices were also down by 0.4% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend remained negative at -1.8% y/y after -2.0% y/y prior month.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (May): -38.1 vs -38 expected (prior: -40)

• Consumer sentiment was less depressed over the month; views were less negative on future economy and purchases but more negative about financial situation.

Turkey: Industrial production (April): 3.7% m/m (prior: -0.8%)

• Production has rebounded in the manufacturing sector, up by 4.4% m/m after -1.1% m/m the prior month, but production of electricity was down (-2.8% m/m after 3.8% m/m prior month.)

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (June): 48.9 vs 46 expected (prior: 44.8)

• Consumer confidence has rebounded in preliminary data.
• Sentiment has improved on both current conditions and expectations.
• Opinions have improved on financial situation and were less negative on net income. Business expectations have improved, and views have stabilized on unemployment.
• Willingness to buy autos has regained over the month.
• Inflation expectations at 12M have declined from 4.8% prior month to 4.6% y/y and expectations at 5-10y have declined from 3.9% to 3.4% y/y.

France: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 1.2%)

• Final data confirmed some slowdown in monthly inflation; energy was up by 0.6% m/m (4.7% m/m prior month) and oil prices were down by 1.8% m/m after 8.2% m/m prior month.
• Prices of goods were up by 0.1% m/m and services flat after 1.2% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.5% y/y to 2.8% y/y.

Germany: CPI (May): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Final data pointed to falling energy prices (-7.2% m/m after 4.3% m/m prior month), helped by lower tax, but leisure was up by 1.4% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.9% y/y to 2.7% y/y.

Spain: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Energy and transport costs were down over the month and other sectors were flat or modestly up (0.2% m/m) in monthly data.
• Prices of restaurants-hotels were up by 0.7% m/m after 1.6% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has slightly increased from 3.5% y/y prior month to 3.6% y/y.

UK: Industrial production (April): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Activity in manufacturing was up by 0.4% m/m after 1.2% m/m; utilities production was down while mining and oil production has rebounded over the month.
• Separately, construction was up by 0.1% m/m (1.5% m/m prior month) and services down by 0.2% m/m (0.3% m/m).
• Proxy for GDP was down by 0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month. Activity remained fragile after Q1-026.

Turkey: Current account (April): -5.70bn USD vs -5.5bn expected (prior: -9.69bn revised from -9.67bn)

• Exports of goods have rebounded over the month and balance of services has improved, reducing the deficit.
• Official reserves have increased by USD 12.4 bn after USD -43.4 bn the prior month.

US: Initial jobless claims (June 6): 229k vs 220k expected (prior: 225k)

• Continuing claims: 1795 k after 1771 k the prior week.

US: PPI (May): 1.1% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1.4%)

• PPIs remained on a sustained monthly rise; energy prices were up by 10.7% m/m after 7.5% m/m prior month and services were up by 0.3% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month): while costs on trade have decreased, they rebounded for warehouses costs.
• Core PPIs were up by 0.8% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 5.7%y/y prior month to 6.5% y/y and on core PPIs from 4.4% to 5.1% y/y.

ECB Meeting: decisions to raise all major key rates by 25 bp; deposit rates now at 2.25%.

• A unanimous decision has increased key rates by 25 bp because all inflation indicators have increased over the recent period; this was not an insurance hike, but a decision motivate by the mandate on inflation stability.
• Uncertainties remain in place with both upside risk on inflation and downside risk on growth.
• Further decisions on rates are data dependent and taken meeting by meeting; the ECB did not want to preset next moves in rates but seems ready to hike further if necessary.
• Recent rises in core inflation and services are related to both direct and indirect pressures from energy, but Lagarde said no second-round effects were identified; otherwise, inflation expectations remained anchored on the medium term.
• Lagarde answered to critics about this first hike by arguing that growth is still present in the area; the new ECB’s scenario expects 0.8% GDP growth in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028 (forecasts in line with consensus but higher than UBP scenario).
• Inflation forecasts have been revised up: 3% in 2026 (2.5% core inflation), 2.3% in 2027 (core at 2.5%) and 2.0% in 2028 (2.2% on core inflation). The ECB expects a gradual return to 2% target only in 2028.
• The inflation stability mandate has obliged to this first rates hike; the door is open to another rate hike, but communication refrains from being too hawkish and to pre-commit the other hike.
• To avoid a second-rate hike, a much slower growth must be identified or a quick resolution of the Middle East conflict with lower oil prices and stable/lower core inflation. Rates in a 2-2.5% range could be seen as remaining in the neutral stance and not yet particularly restrictive.

Sweden: CPI (May): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Final data confirmed the acceleration of inflation over the month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.7% m/m after -0.6% m/m. Various sectors offered a significant monthly rise: housing utilities, household goods, leisure and hotels.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 0.8% y/y prior month to 1.5% y/y; core inflation was up by 0.5% y/y after 0% y/y prior month.

UK: RICS house price balance (May): -35% vs -32% expected (prior: -35% revised from -34%)

• Opinions on housing stayed depressed over the month; opinions were less negative on current sales but more negative on prices and on new demand. Inventories have increased over the month.