每日宏观动态

UK: Industrial production (Sept.): -2% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Industrial activity has contracted more than expected; while production of durable was up by 3.7% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month), production of investment goods has decreased by 4.5% m/m (+0.9% m/m prior month).
• Monthly proxy of GDP was down by 0.1% m/m (flat the prior month); services were up by 0.2% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month and construction up by 0.2% m/m after -0.5% prior month.

UK: GDP (Q3-25): 0.1% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Growth has slowed down in Q3. Consumption was up by 0.2%q and public consumption up by 0.3%q; capex was strong, up by 1.8%q after 0.5%q due to ICT, housing and R&D while equipment spending has contracted.
• Exports and imports were both under contraction but net trade contribution to GDP was positive.
• By sector, activity was up in services (0.2%q after 0.4%q) while it declined by 0.5% (-0.8% in Q2) in manufacturing due to disruption in auto production.

Eurozone: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1.2%)

• Energy production was strongly up over the month (1.2% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month).
• Production of consumer goods has contracted for the second month. Industrial activity in Ireland was also traditionally volatile, being down by 9.4% m/m after +9.5% m/m prior month.

France: Unemployment rate (Q3-25): 7.7% vs 7.6% expected (prior: 7.6% revised from 7.5%)

• Unemployment is slightly trending higher.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Oct.): -0.3% m/m (prior: -0.2%)

• Import prices were down by 0.4% m/m (-0.5% m/m prior month) and producer prices down by 0.2% m/m (flat prior month).
• Yearly trend remained stable at -2.7% y/y on imported prices and quite stable at -1.3% y/y after -1.4% y/y on producer prices.

Brazil: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.9%)

• Broad sales remained positive, but several sectors have contracted during the month except health and personal sectors.

Poland: GDP (Q3-25): 0.8% q/q as expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Preliminary data pointed to stable and sustained growth trend.

Poland: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly rebound in inflation: prices of food, household goods and health care have accelerated over the month. Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend was marginally down on headline (from 3.2% y/y prior month to 3.1% y/y), but core inflation was up from 2.7% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.

Germany: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Over the month, prices have rebounded for clothes, oil and transport, while prices of hotels were down over the month.
• Yearly trend has slightly declined from 2.4% y/y the prior month to 2.3% y/y.

Germany: Wholesale price (Oct.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

• Yearly trend has marginally declined to 1.1% y/y after 1.2% y/y the prior month.

Italy: Industrial production (Sept.): 2.8% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: -2.7% revised from -2.4%)

• A broad-based rebound in activity after the fall seen in Aug.
• Besides the strong rebound in energy, production of capital and intermediate goods was also sustained over the month.

Turkey: Current account (Sept.): 1.11bn USD vs 1.20bn expected (prior: 5.42bn revised from 5.46bn)

• Deficit on goods has increased over the month and surplus on services has decreased.
• Official reserves have declined by USD 8.69 M after a surplus of USD 5.74 M the prior month.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Oct.): 98.2 vs 98.3 expected (prior: 98.8)

• Small business confidence edged lower in October reflecting softer demand and lingering uncertainty.
• Slightly fewer respondents planned to create new jobs and many are still finding hard to fill openings.
• On a positive note, business owners expect credit conditions to improve and more see this as a good time to expand. Also, fewer owners reported supply-chain disruptions.
• The willingness to raise prices remains above average but is slightly down from September.

Germany: Zew (Nov.): 38.5 vs 41.0 expected (prior: 39.3)

• Current situation: -78.7 vs -78.2 expected (prior: -80.0)
• Investor confidence in Germany unexpectedly edged down in November with some investors doubting that the economic policy will tackle the structural problems.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Sept.): 4.8% y/y vs 5.0% expected (prior: 5.0%)

• Ex bonus: 4.6% as expected (prior: 4.7%)

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Sept.): 5.0% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.8%)

• Employment change 3m/3m: -22k vs +5k expected (prior: 91k)
• Payrolled employees monthly change (Oct.): -32k vs -3k expected (prior: - 32k revised from -10k)
• Today's releases shows that the UK labour market weakened in September and some indicators suggest that this trend continued in October.
• Today's data would support a rate cut from the BoE in December, but the bank will receive more important information (inflation, budget) before its decision.

Norway: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.4%)

• Inflation remained on a sustained monthly trend; prices have reaccelerated over the month on food, clothes, households’ goods and communication; core inflation was up by 0.6% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.6% y/y prior month to 3.3% y/y on headline inflation; core inflation has accelerated from 3.0% to 3.4% y/y.

Sweden: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.9% m/m (prior: 1.5% revised from 0.9%)

• Activity in industry was up by 3.8% m/m after 5.5% the prior month; in services, activity has contracted by 0.6% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month. Construction was up by 2% m/m after 5.2% m/m prior month.
• Separately, orders for industry have declined by 2.6% m/m in Oct. after 7% m/m the prior month.

Sweden: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.4%)

• Consumer spending is larger than retail sales and confirmed the positive current trend.

Turkey: Industrial production (Sept.): -2.2% m/m (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)

• All sectors have contacted over the month except mining. Manufacturing production was down by 2.3% m/m after +0.8% m/m the prior month.