每日宏观动态

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (May): 95.3 vs 96 expected (prior: 95.9)

• Business sentiment has marginally decreased over the month, contrary to consensus expectations.
• Sentiment came slightly lower than prior month on future economic but remained stable on employment.
• While costs are under pressure, selling prices were on the rise.
• Disruption in supply chain was also mentioned as a constraint.

US: Trade balance (April): -55.9 bn USD vs -56.1 bn expected (prior: -56.6 bn revised from -60.3 bn)

• Exports were up by 2.6% m/m after 2.0% m/m prior month and imports up by 2% m/m after 2.3% m/m prior month.
• Exports were dynamic for capital and consumer goods; imports were up for capital goods and down over the month in other sectors.
• The surplus in oil has increased over the month and helped to cover rising imports (Ai related).

US: Existing home sales (May): 4.17M vs 4.07M expected (prior: 4.04M revised from 4.02M)

• Sales have rebounded over the month driven by higher sales of single-family houses.
• Prices have increased to 1.9% y/y (0.9% y/y prior month).
• Interesting to note that the share of first buyers have increased over the month.

US: Wholesale inventories (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Inventories have increased in all various segments; total sales were up by 2.0% m/m, driven higher by sales of computers.

Germany: Industrial production (April): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.7%)

• Manufacturing production was flat over the month after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Production has decreased for capital goods while it was up for intermediate and consumer goods over the month.

Germany: Trade Balance (April): 14.5bn EUR vs 15.9bn expected (prior: 14.7bn revised from 14.3bn)

• Exports were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month; imports were up by 1.2% m/m after 4.5% m/m prior month.
• Exports were the most dynamic to Europe non-eurozone (up by 3% m/m), while they were up by 1.8% m/m to US and down by 3.5% m/m to China.

Germany: Factory orders (April): -3.8% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 4.5% revised from 5%)

• Orders have reversed after the large rebound seen the prior month.
• Both foreign and domestic orders have contracted over the month, except domestic orders on consumers.
• By sector, orders were up for intermediate goods (metals) and non-durable consumer goods, but they have contracted for equipment and durable consumer goods.

US: Non-farm payrolls (May): 172k vs 88k expected (prior: 179k revised from 115k)

• Payrolls were higher than expected and prior month data were strongly revised up. After revised data, payrolls have marginally decreased from the prior month.
• Job creations were more positive than in prior month for manufacturing and construction and total creations in goods sectors were up by 28 k after 14 k prior month, and this could be related to improving momentum in PMI manufacturing.
• Creations in services have decreased from the prior month (92 k after 163 k prior month) and the picture was more contrasted at sub-sector level.
• Jobs have contracted for trade-transport, information and business services, but were in rebound for leisure (70 k after 30 k), government (52 k after 2 k) and remained positive in education-health (40 k after 54 k).
• Unemployment ratio remained stable at 4.3% as expected; wage growth was up by 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month), but the yearly trend has declined from 3.6% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.
• A firmer activity has created more jobs, and with a relatively more positive momentum in goods than in services. Labor is no more a concern for the Fed and stable unemployment ratio and moderate wage growth should give some reassure the Fed and help to concentrate on inflation risks.

France: Industrial production (April): 0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.4% m/m after 1.3% m/m prior month.
• Production in capital goods and intermediate goods was up by 0.7% m/m while energy and consumer goods production has contracted over the month.

Norway: Industrial production (April): 0.6% m/m (prior: -1.1% revised from -1.0%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 0.9% m/m after 2.0% m/m prior month. Industrial activity was strong in oil sector, refineries and basic metals, while it has declined for machinery and equipment segments.

Eurozone: GDP (Q1-26): -0.1% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Q1 GDP has been revised down due to sharp negative revisions to Ireland GDP; Ireland was down by 12%q, due to lower international firms’ activity (-2% in first estimate).
• Eurozone consumption was up by 0.2%q (0.4% in Q4-25), public consumption up by 0.5% q (0.6% q in Q4), but capex down by 0.3% q (0.8% q in Q4). Exports and imports were sharply down.
• Excluding Ireland, GDP was up by 0.2%q, which still pointed to a relative resilience.

Turkey: CPI (May): 1.71% m/m vs 1.61% expected (prior: 4.18%)

• Monthly inflation has slowed down from the prior month, but changes remained sustained; rises were strong for clothes, transport, housing and hotels-restaurants.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 32.37% y/y prior month to 32.61%; core inflation was up by 30.44% y/y after 29.83% y/y prior month.

US: Initial jobless claims (May 30): 225k vs 215k expected (prior: 212k revised from 215k)

• Continuing claims: 1777 k after 1785 k prior week.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q1-26): 0.3% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Output growth has slowed down from 1.5% q/q prior quarter to 1.0% q/q; total wage growth remained sustained at 2.1% q/q but on slower than 3.1% q seen in Q4-25.

Eurozone: Retail sales (April): -0.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from -0.1%)

• Sales have reversed after a rebound the prior month (data revised up).
• Auto fuel has led the contraction (down by 2.7% m/m), and non-food sales were also down by 0.9% m/m; food sales were up by 0.9% m/m.
• Sales were highly volatile in H1-27, and the yearly trend is weakening, from 2.2% y/y in Jan. to 1.0% y/y.

Spain: Industrial production (April): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 2.4% revised from 2.3%)

• Production has contracted after a strong rebound the prior month.
• Except capital goods (up by 0.1% m/m), activity in all other sectors (consumers, intermediate and energy) was down over the month.

Sweden: CPI (May): 0.9% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.5%)

• Preliminary data pointed to sustained monthly rise due to services and energy prices.
• Core inflation was up by 0.7% m/m after -0.6% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 1.5% y/y and, on core inflation from 0% to 0.5% y/y. This rebound appeared just below central banks expectations of 1.6% y/y on headline and 0.9% y/y on core inflation.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (May): 3.1% vs 3.0% expected (prior: 3.0%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month but the unemployment ratio has slightly increased on seasonally adjusted data.
• Long-term unemployment has increased while job openings have decreased over the month.

Switzerland: CPI (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Oil prices were down by 0.7% m/m after 11% m/m the prior month; food prices were up by 1.1% m/m after -0.4% m/m.
• Other prices offered limited monthly changes: good prices up by 0.1% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month), and services up by 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend remained stable at 0.6% y/y as well as the trend on core inflation at 0.4% y/y.

Turkey: Unemployment rate (April): 8.2% (prior: 8.1%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month.