每日宏观动态
星期五, 三月 13
US inflation held steady in January while consumer confidence slipped
US: Core PCE deflator (Jan): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)
- The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge still points to sticky prices. In January, core PCE quickened to 3.1% y/y from 3.0%, matching forecasts and ensuring a close look from the FOMC next week.
- Services drove the gain: the "supercore" measure, core services excluding housing, rose 0.4% m/m, up from 0.3%, with healthcare leading the advance.
- The print predates the recent surge in energy costs and could face upside risks in the future.
US: Personal income (Jan): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Consumer demand kept its December rhythm in January, with spending tilting further from goods to services.
- Personal spending held steady at 0.4% m/m, while real spending eked out a modest 0.1% gain.
- Higher energy costs will weigh on real spending, though tax refunds and wage growth should offer some support; even so, a fragile labor market remains a risk to the outlook.
US: GDP (4Q S): 0.7% q/q vs 1.4% expected (prior: 4.4%)
- The BEA now reckons the government shutdown bit harder than first thought. Fourth-quarter growth was revised down to a 0.7% q/q annualized rate from 1.4%.
- Consumer, business and government outlays, as well as exports, were all marked lower. Even so, the underlying demand gauge held up relatively well.
US: Durable goods orders (Jan P): 0.0% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -1.4%)
- Durable-goods orders were flat in January, disappointing expectations. Excluding transportation, a cleaner read on underlying activity, new orders rose 0.4% m/m, down from an upwardly revised 1.3%.
- Core capital-goods orders (nondefense, ex-aircraft) were likewise flat, while core shipments, that feeds into GDP, slipped 0.1% m/m, versus 1.0% previously and well below the 0.4% forecast.
- Even so, momentum remains positive on a year-on-year basis for both core orders and shipments.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Mar P): 55.5 vs 54.8 expected (prior: 56.6)
- The Iran conflict has barely dented American consumer sentiment, at least judging by inflation expectations.
- Though the headline index fell by less than forecast, short‑term inflation expectations held at 3.4%, defying predictions of a rise to 3.7%.
- The current-conditions gauge climbed to a five‑month high (55.5), while the expectations index slipped to its lowest since November (54.1).
- Looking ahead, sentiment could yet buckle under higher fuel prices linked to the Israel–US tensions and a still‑fragile labor market.
US: JOLTS Job Openings (Jan): 6946k vs 6750k expected (prior: 6550k revised from 6542k)
- America’s JOLTS data showed a tick-up in job openings. Even so, caution is in order as response rates remain weak, clouding the signal. Layoffs edged down from 1.1% to 1.0%, while the hiring rate held steady.
Eurozone: Industrial production (Jan): -1.5% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -1.4%)
- Eurozone industrial output fell 1.5% m/m in January, wrong-footing expectations of a 0.6% rebound, though December was revised up to -0.6% from -1.4%.
- Germany (-1.3%), Italy (-0.6%) and Spain (-0.5%) all slipped; France rose 0.5%. A 9.8% plunge in Ireland, often volatile due to multinationals, amplified the drag.
- February’s PMI hinted at stabilization, but it predates the latest flare-up involving Iran and higher energy costs. With manufacturers already flagging rising inputs, commodities, transport and wages, next week’s PMI prints will be important to monitor.
UK: GDP (Jan): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Britain entered 2026 with scant momentum, leaving it more exposed as Middle Eastern tensions rise. The services powerhouse stagnated amid a softening labor market; manufacturing edged up 0.1% m/m (vs. 0.2% expected) and construction 0.2%.
- Looking ahead, PMIs point to a firmer underlying pace (about 1.5% q/q annualized), but a sustained energy-price spike would sap growth.
星期四, 三月 12
US labor market still in low-hire low-fire equilibrium
US: Initial jobless claims (Mar 7): 213k vs 215k expected (prior: 214k revised from 213k)
- Applications for unemployment benefits were largely unchanged from the prior week, while continuing claims drifted down to 1850k for the week ending February 28, from a slightly revised 1871k the week prior.
- Claims remain consistent with a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium despite the February decline in payrolls.
- Previous labor indicators, such as lower job-creation plans among small business owners and the February jobs report, show that this equilibrium remains fragile.
US: Trade balance (Jan): -54.5 bn USD vs -66.0 bn expected (prior: -72.9 bn revised from -70.3 bn)
- America’s trade gap narrowed in January as exports jumped 5.5%, led by shipments of non-monetary gold, other precious metals, computers and aircraft. Imports slipped 0.7%, weighed down by a drop in pharmaceuticals.
US: Housing starts (Jan): 1487k vs 1341k expected (prior: 1871k revised from 1404k)
- January housing starts beat expectations despite foul weather, but the details point to softness ahead.
- The gain was driven by multifamily projects, not single-family homes, the segment that matters most for ownership and affordability.
- Permits fell across most regions and for all housing types, and with inventories bloated at single-family builders, residential construction still faces stiff headwinds.
星期三, 三月 11
US inflation in line with expectations, showing a stable yearly trend
US: CPI (Feb.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Inflation was in line with consensus expectations and has shown limited monthly pressures across sectors.
- Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m as expected and as seen the prior month.
- Prices of food were up by 0.4% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month), and energy up by 0.6% m/m after -1.5% m/m prior month); the rises in energy prices were due to fuel oil (11% m/m) and gasoline (+0.8% m/m).
- Good prices were up by 0.1% m/m (0% m/m prior month); just a few sectors have shown monthly rises probably due to tariffs (appliances, apparels), but balanced by flat prices of new cars and another decline in used cars (-0.4% m/m).
- Services were up by 0.3% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month); shelter costs remained moderate (0.2% m/m as seen prior month); prices were up for hospitals and airfares but balanced by moderate rises or some decline in other sectors.
- Yearly trend remained unchanged from the prior month for both headline inflation (2.4% y/y) and core inflation (2.5% y/y).
Germany: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Final data have confirmed a monthly rebound in prices; this move was driven by higher prices of clothes (1.6% m/m), rising oil-petrol prices (1.1% m/m) and firmer prices for communication and leisure goods; on the opposite, household equipment prices were down over the month.
- Yearly trend came marginally lower, from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.0% y/y.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (Jan.): 4% y/y (prior: 2.8% revised from 2.9%)
- Real sales were up by 0.1% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month.
- Monthly picture was mixed as sales were stronger for food, personal goods and online sales, while they declined for household goods and health sectors.
星期二, 三月 10
Sentiment among US small businesses fell slightly in February
US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Feb): 98.8 vs 99.6 expected (prior: 99.3)
- Sentiment among US small businesses fell slightly for a second consecutive month, partly reversing the positive trend seen at the end of last year, but remains broadly stable by recent standards.
- Owners are increasingly worried about the outlook for sales and the economy, with the optimism index slipping. Pricing power is fading as the pace of price increases continues to weaken.
- The survey was conducted throughout February and does not yet incorporate the surge in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.
- Looking ahead, a larger share of owners may raise selling prices to pass through higher input costs.
US: Existing home sales (Feb): 4.09M vs 3.88M expected (prior: 4.02M revised from 3.91M)
- Sales of previously owned American homes beat expectations in February, lifted by a fleeting improvement in affordability as mortgage rates dipped to a 3-year low of 6.09%, nudging more buyers to close deals.
- Yet the wider housing market remains subdued, with activity still far shy of its pre-pandemic cadence of roughly 5m-6m annualized sales, and a durable recovery likely contingent on steadier rate relief and more supply.
Germany: Trade Balance (Jan): 21.2bn EUR vs 15.4bn expected (prior: 17.4bn revised from 17.1bn)
- Germany’s trade surplus widened sharply as imports fell 5.9% m/m, outpacing a 2.3% drop in exports.
- The slump in shipments was concentrated in Europe: exports to EU partners fell 4.8%, including a 5.7% decline to the euro area and a 2.7% drop to non-euro EU members.
- Beyond Europe, the picture was mixed. Exports to third countries edged up 1%, buoyed by an 11.7% jump in sales to the United States, Germany’s largest market. By contrast, exports to the United Kingdom slipped 2.6%, shipments to China tumbled 13.2%, and sales to Russia fell 5.9%.
星期一, 三月 09
German industrial production dipped in January
Germany: Industrial production (Jan): -0.5% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: -1.0% revised from -1.9%)
- Germany’s industry stumbled in January, dimming hopes of a quick rebound despite February’s uptick in the PMI.
- Manufacturing output fell 2.4% m/m (sa), partly offset by a 2.9% rise in construction and an 11.8% jump in energy.
- Factory orders plunged 11.1% m/m, but excluding volatile bulk orders they slipped just 0.4%, suggesting the underlying trend remains steadier than the headline.
- If energy prices keep climbing, input costs will rise further, threatening production and souring manufacturing sentiment.