每日宏观动态

US: PPI (July): 0.0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.3%)

• PPI y/y: 4.7% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 5.5%)
• Core PPI: 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%); 4.2% y/y vs 4.1% expected (prior: 4.7%)
• Energy prices continued to fall in July (-3.1%), reflecting the decline in oil prices.
• In addition to the headline being slightly below expectations (even after accounting for the upward revisions for June), the PPI components relevant for PCE were on the weaker side.

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 8): 209k vs 202k expected (prior: 200k revised from 199k)

• Initial jobless claims remain at a low level, which adds to evidence that the July's weak employment report did not mark the start of a broad deterioration in the job market.

Eurozone: Industrial production (June): 0.0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from -0.2%)

• IP y/y: 0.1% vs -0.6% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -1.2%)
• The 3-month/3-month annualised growth rate accelerated further to a 13-month high of 3.6%.

UK: GDP (Q2 Prel.): 0.4% q/q as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• GDP y/y: 1.2% vs 1.1% expected (prior: 0.9%)
• A mix of modest growth in consumer spending (0.3% vs 0.2% expected) alongside accelerations in investment (1.2% vs -0.1% expected) and export growth (0.5% vs 0.3% expected) drove the rise in GDP, which shows that, like the eurozone, the UK economy has proved resilient in the face of surging energy prices and rising long-term rates.

UK: Industrial production (June): -0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.5%)

• IP y/y: -0.2% vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.0%)
• Manufacturing production was down 0.5% m/m, but it up 0.5% y/y (vs 1.2% expected), after 2.0% y/y in May.

Norway: Norges Bank leaves key rate unchanged at 4.25% as expected

• The central bank noted that it was "too early to conclude that inflation outlook had changed materially", adding that "it may thus still become necessary to raise the policy rate."

US: CPI (Jul): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4%)

• America’s price pressures eased a touch in July, delivering no surprises but a little relief. Both headline and core inflation matched forecasts on a monthly and annual basis, which shaved the year-on-year rates and marginally lightened the burden on the Federal Reserve.
• Core CPI, slipped to 2.5% from 2.6%, continuing its gentle glide toward the Fed’s 2% target. Headline CPI, edged down to 3.4% from 3.5%. On a month-to-month basis, energy prices fell again, albeit less dramatically than in June (down 1.5% m/m after a 5.7% drop), as cheaper gasoline led the decline.
• Beneath the surface, the stickier parts of inflation sent mixed signals. Core services, the component that most worries policymakers, re-accelerated, propelled by firmer medical care and transportation services, keeping the “last mile” of disinflation tricky.
• Yet shelter, the single largest slice of the consumer basket, continued to post weak rates of growth and could exert a powerful drag on overall price growth in the months ahead. Meanwhile, core goods prices ticked up 0.2% on the month.
• Taken together, July’s report paints a picture of an economy where inflation is still edging lower. The modest deceleration in the annual rates, the ongoing retreat in energy, and the encouraging tilt in shelter argue for Fed being on hold until the rest of the year.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (July): 99.8 vs 97.5 expected (prior: 97.4)

• Business confidence has increased further, and the index was back to recent highs.
• Opinions have increased about economy, employment and capex; while views remained cautious on future sales.
• Opinions have moderated on selling prices, but the index remained at high level.

US: Existing home sales (July): 4.06M vs 4.05M expected (prior: 4.13M revised from 4.09M)

• Home sales have declined after prior month data were revised higher.
• Sales of multi-family houses remained stable over the month, but sales of single-family houses have decreased from 3.76 M to 3.69 M.
• Prices were up by 2% y/y after 1.8% y/y the prior month.

Brazil: CPI (July): 0.07% m/m vs 0.01% expected (prior: 0.16%)

• IPCA index has moderated over the month; prices for food and clothes have declined over the month, while housing and healthcare prices have accelerated.
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.64% y/y prior month to 4.44% y/y.

Norway: CPI (July): 1% m/m (prior: -0.2%)

• Inflation has strongly rebounded over the month due to higher prices for food, transport, insurance and leisure sectors; prices of clothes and communication declined over the month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.8% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3% y/y after 2.7% y/y prior month, but core inflation remained stable at 2.7% y/y.

Turkey: Industrial production (June): 0.1% m/m (prior: -3.0% revised from -2.9%)

• Production has rebounded for electricity-gas, but it has declined for mining and manufacturing sectors.