每日宏观动态
星期五, 八月 21
PMI index: higher confidence in services in the US and UK, higher confidence in manufacturing in the eurozone
US: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 53.2 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 53.9)
- Flash estimates have pointed to some consolidation in business confidence over the month; production has slightly increased, but some moderation was seen in new orders and constraints have increased due to longer delivery.
- Employment has slightly increased while selling prices have moderated.
US: Services PMI (Aug.): 56.8 vs 54 expected (prior: 54.6)
- First estimates for confidence in services have strongly accelerated over the month.
- Opinions have rebounded on new orders and employment has increased.
- Selling prices were on the rise but at moderate pace.
- Thanks to services, the composite PMI has accelerated further from 54.5 to 56.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Aug.): -14 vs -18 expected (prior: -17)
- Consumer confidence was less negative over the month; opinions have relatively improved about personal financial situation, economic outlook and future purchases.
- The index was again back to pre-covid levels.
UK: Retail sales (July): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 1%)
- Sales were down in all sectors, including internet sales, except food over the month, after sustained purchases the prior month.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 51.5 as expected (prior: 51.9)
- Business sentiment has slightly decreased over the month, but the index remained above 50 in this flash estimate.
- New orders have decreased from 52.3 prior month to 51. Situation in the Middle East remained a source of concerns.
- Costs and prices remained on the rise.
UK: Services PMI (Aug.): 52.8 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 52.1)
- Flash estimates have pointed to a larger than expected rebound in confidence in services; demand has increased from firms and consumers, and new orders index has increased to 51.3 after 50.8 prior month.
- Employment remained under constraints and pressures on prices have increased further.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 52.8 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.9)
- Flash estimate pointed to another rebound in confidence, driven by higher new orders. Activity was firmer and exports have increased for the first time since many months. Production has rebounded driven by Germany.
- Employment has marginally increased over the month; costs have shown a modest increase.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Aug.): 51.7 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.7)
- The index remained quite stable in the flash estimate; activity and exports were better oriented over the month, but new orders index has marginally decreased over the month.
- Employment has increased over the month and prices remained on the rise.
- Preliminary data have pointed to falling index in France (from 49.6 prior month to 48.4) and in Germany (from 49.8 to 48.5), leaving peripherals driving the trend.
France: Business confidence (Aug.): 98 as expected (prior: 97)
- Business confidence has rebounded over the month, driven by higher confidence in manufacturing sector (103 after 101).
- Views on own production and exports were more positive; prices remained on rising trend.
- In parallel, index for services has increased from 99 to 100 over the month.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (July): 8.6% vs 8.8% expected (prior: 8.9%)
- Unemployed has decreased after a strong rebound in June.
Switzerland: M3 (July): 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.6%)
- M1 growth has slowed down from 8.3% y/y prior month to 6.4% y/y, and M2 from 5.7% to 4.2% y/y.
- Time deposits and time savings have decreased over the month.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Aug.): -15.5 vs -16 expected (prior: -15.9)
- Preliminary data for consumer confidence has pointed to less negative situation from the prior month (no details offered); nevertheless, the index remained at low level.
Turkey: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 90.8 (prior: 89.8)
- Consumer confidence has improved on financial situation, economic outlook and purchases.
Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 102.4 (prior: 101.2)
- Business confidence has improved about production, new orders, exports and also employment over the month.
星期四, 八月 20
US labour market remains resilient
US: Initial jobless claims (Aug 15): 206k vs 210k expected (prior: 212k revised from 209k)
- Jobless claims remained subdued in the week to August 15th, suggesting that the recent softness in headline payrolls may be overstated and that the labour market remains resilient, giving the Fed little reason to worry about employment risks.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (Aug): 47.4 vs 24.8 expected (prior: 41.4)
- The regional manufacturing survey jumped in August to its highest reading since April 2021, buoyed by a strong employment component. Even so, the series is notoriously volatile, making firm conclusions hard to draw.
Germany: PPI (Jul): 1.1% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.3%)
- Producer prices picked up pace in July, pushing the annual rate to 3.0%, the fourth consecutive month of gains.
- The advance was driven chiefly by intermediate goods, up 5.4% from 5.1% in June, as metals and related inputs surged, particularly precious metals, copper, and semi-finished copper.
- Energy costs also reaccelerated, rising 3.8% after 0.4% in June, buoyed by petroleum, naphtha, heating oil, motor fuels, and natural gas. Declines in electricity prices provided only a partial offset.
星期三, 八月 19
UK inflation remains sticky
UK: CPI (Jul): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- UK inflation ticked up as expected. Ofgem’s energy price-cap reset outweighed easing in services and food.
- Services inflation, the largest component, slipped from 3.6% to 3.4% y/y, in line with the Bank of England’s projections.
- Yet core services inflation, which excludes volatile, indexed and regulated categories, rose from 3.6% to 3.8%, propelled by a rebound in hospital services after an unusually weak July 2025.
- Core CPI was unchanged at 2.6%, rather than the anticipated dip to 2.5%.
- The message is that the last mile of disinflation remains sticky; however, a softer labour market should limit spillovers from energy into services, bolstering the case for the BoE to keep rates on hold for the rest of the year.
星期二, 八月 18
Costly mortgages sap US housing; UK labour market softens
US: Housing starts (Jul): 1239k vs 1345k expected (prior: 1415k revised from 1427k)
- Elevated mortgage rates continue to hobble the US housing market: housing starts slid 12.4% in July across both single- and multi-family segments. Even so, permits rose 5%, the strongest since February, suggesting a pipeline that may revive activity in coming months.
- Pending home sales of previously owned homes also dropped in July (-2.3%).
US: Industrial production (Jul): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)
- US industrial production edged up 0.2% in July, shy of the 0.3% forecast, after an upwardly revised 0.3% in June. Manufacturing, roughly 78% of the total, matched expectations with a 0.2% gain, easing from June’s 0.3%.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jun): 4.9% vs 4.8% expected (prior: 4.9%)
- UK's jobs market is losing steam. Employment fell by 13k in July, against expectations of no change, a sign that labour demand remains weak. The jobless rate held at 4.9% in June, defying forecasts of a dip to 4.8%.
- The figures come with caveats: survey response rates have slipped, raising the risk of measurement noise in the May-June prints.
- Wage pressures continue to ease. Private-sector regular pay, the Bank of England’s preferred gauge, slowed to 2.8% in the three months to June from 2.9%, broadly in line with the Bank’s projections.
- Taken together, softer hiring and contained pay growth bolster the case for the BoE to keep rates on hold for now.
Germany: Zew (Aug): 34.2 vs 30.0 expected (prior: 26.3)
- Germany’s mood is perking up, helped by federal infrastructure spending, according to the ZEW’s president.
- The improvement follows a stronger‑than‑expected second‑quarter GDP print and underscores the economy’s resilience despite the oil‑price shock.
- Even so, the current‑conditions index has only clawed back from very low levels and remains weak by historical standards.
星期一, 八月 17
US homebuilder sentiment marginally higher
US: NAHB housing market index (Aug.): 35 vs 33 expected (prior: 34)
- Very modest improvement in homebuilder sentiment in August, but it remains depressed as high construction and borrowing costs continue to be significant headwinds for the housing market.
- Measures of both future sales expectations and prospective buyer traffic were unchanged from the prior month.
US: Empire manufacturing (Aug.): 20.6 vs 10.0 expected (prior: 15.6)
- Manufacturing sentiment in the New York area rose to its highest level since December 2021.
- The composition of the report was more mixed. The new orders, shipments, and employment components all slightly weakened, but all three remains at healthy levels. The prices paid index edged higher.
- Firms' optimism remains elevated for the next 6 months, which bodes well for manufacturing activity by the end of the year.