每日宏观动态

US: ADP Employment change (Sept.): 90k vs 75k expected (prior: 36k revised from 38k)

• Job creations came higher than expected, offering a more positive outlook on labor than the JOLTS survey.
• Creations have strongly rebounded for medium (from 0 k to 54 k) and small-sized firms (from 3 k to 23 k).
• Jobs were again mainly created in services (59 k) but the producing sector was also firmer over the month (31 k).
• These data were in line with the positive momentum seen in last PMIs.

 

US: Personal income (Aug.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Wage growth was up by 0.3% m/m as the prior month.
• Disposable income was up by 0.3% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month), but real disposable income was flat over the month (0.3% m/m prior month).
• Saving ratio was down to 4.1% after 4.6% prior month.

 

US: Personal spending (Aug.): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Spending was sustained over the month. Goods were strongly up due to gasoline, food, autos and clothes and services were also sustained.

 

US: Core PCE deflator (Aug.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Technical changes have moderated past monthly rises and the historic yearly trend has been revised down by more than 0.35 bp.
• Yearly trend remained stable over the month, after revisions, at 3.0% y/y.

 

US: GDP (Q2-26): 2.2% q/q vs 1.5% expected (prior: 2.5%)

• Q2 GDP was strongly revised up due to higher consumption and firmer investment.
• Consumption was up by 3.8% q/q (0.7% in Q1), due to strong good purchases (4.5%, fueled by durable goods up by 7.4%q/q), and services up by 3.4% q/q.
• Investment was revised up for Q2, but it remained on slower pace from Q1; residential was more positive (up by 2.8% q/q after -7.6% q/q in Q1); other components remained on positive trend: structures up by 0.1% (-1.8% in second estimate; -9.4%q/q in Q1), equipment up by 13.4%q/q after 15.5% q/q in Q1, and R&D-AI up by 9.2% in Q2 after 15.6% in Q1.
• Negative contribution to quarterly growth came from falling inventories (-0.53 pp) and net exports (-1.10 pp).
• The final private domestic demand was revised up from 4.2% q/q to 4.6% q/q (1.8% q/q in Q1).
• These data have shown a resilient domestic economy past quarter; Q3 GDP growth should come in a 2.5%-3% range according to various estimates.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.3%)

• Inventories have increased further due to the auto sector.

 

US: Chicago PMI (Sept.): 58.8 vs 51 expected (prior: 47.1)

• A strong rebound in business confidence.

 

France: CPI (Sept.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• According to preliminary data, energy prices were up by 3.8% m/m (21% y/y) after 3.4% m/m prior month.
• Headline inflation has declined over the month thanks to falling prices of services, down by 1.6% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Food prices rise remained limited, up by 0.2% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.4% y/y after 2.6% y/y the prior month.

 

France: Consumer spending (Aug.): -0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

• Consumption has contracted more than expected over the month; the fall was driven by declining consumption of gasoline, food and households’ durable goods.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 6.4% as expected (prior: 6.4%)

• Unemployed has increased by 12 k over the month after 5 k the prior month.

 

Germany: Retail sales (Aug.): 1.3% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: -3.2% revised from -3.4%)

• After a large fall the prior month, sales have rebounded; sales were stronger for gasoline, IT goods, clothes and pharma products.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 91.2 vs 94.4 expected (prior: 94.5)

• Consumer confidence has decreased with falling opinions about economy and personal situation; views have deteriorated about current situation while expectations on future economy have slightly improved.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 91.9 vs 90.5 expected (prior: 90.2 revised from 89.9)

• Business sentiment has decreased in manufacturing and in services and construction sectors.

 

Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data pointed to still sustained inflation due to a strong rise in energy: fuel prices up by 9.2% m/m (36.1% y/y) after 5.2% m/m prior month and prices of electricity (0.9% m/m after 0.3% m/m).
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 4% y/y after 3.4% y/y prior month.

 

Italy: CPI (Sept.): 2.0% m/m vs 1.7% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Preliminary data pointed to a strong rise in monthly inflation, due a broad-based rise across sectors.
• Prices have accelerated over the month for energy-utility, transport, education, food and hotels-restaurants.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 4.1% y/y after 3.2% y/y prior month.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.8% m/m (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

• Sales have rebounded after the fall seen the prior month.

 

UK: GDP (Q2-26): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Q2 GDP growth was revised up from first estimate, pointing to sustained growth in H1-26.
• Consumption has slowed down to 0.3% q (0.7% q in Q1) and private investment has moderated to 1.8% (after 3% in Q1).
• Net exports have contributed to the quarterly growth, due to strong rise in exports of oil shipments and manufactured goods.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 7.8% (prior: 8.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (July): 2.47% y/y vs 2.20% expected (prior: 2.15% revised from 2.10%)

• Prices were up by 0.32% m/m after 0.26% m/m the prior month.
• Prices across cities offered large dispersion from -4.72% y/y in Las Vegas to 8.59% y/y in New York.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Sept.): 81.9 vs 89 expected (prior: 88.6 revised from 89.4)

• Confidence has decreased over the month. Opinions have decreased about current situation and 6-M expectations have sharply declined from prior month. This decline was driven by falling sentiment about future economy and rising unemployment.
• Views have turned more pessimistic about job market on current conditions.
• The 6-M average inflation has increased from 5.8% to 6.1% y/y.
• Willingness to buy autos, houses and large items has decreased over the month, and remained on a decreasing trend since June.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Aug.): 7079k vs 7228k expected (prior: 7335k revised from 7271k)

• Demand for jobs has decreased more than expected.
• The demand remained volatile, with large disparities across sectors: a higher demand was seen in trade-transport and leisure-hospitality sectors over the month while it decreased for business services, education-health and government.
• Separations, quits and layoffs came slightly lower than the prior month.
• Data remained volatile but the picture of a labor with low hirings-low layoffs remained in place.

 

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Sept.): -3.8 vs -4.7 expected (prior: -5.0 revised from -5.3)

• Business confidence has improved from the prior month; views were more positive on production and less negative about new orders and exports.
• Selling prices remained on a strong rising trend.

 

Eurozone: Services confidence (Sept.): 6.1 vs 6.5 expected (prior: 5.6 revised from 5.8)

• Business confidence has increased from the prior month but less than expected.
• Opinions have increased about current demand but weakened about future demand and employment.
• Views have decreased on selling prices from the prior month, probably reflecting limit to rises and a higher competition as seen in PMIs.
• Views have decreased from the retail sector but were stable in construction.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Sept.): -16.5 as expected (prior: -15.5)

• Consumer confidence has decreased from the prior month.
• Opinions have sharply deteriorated on financial conditions, and views have decreased on global economic situation and future purchases.
• Inflation trend is seen rising further and preference for saving has re-accelerated over the month.

 

Italy: PPI (Aug.): 3.1% m/m (prior: 3.0%)

• Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 9.3% y/y prior month to 13.5% y/y.

 

Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Preliminary data pointed to sustained monthly inflation due to energy prices. No details by sector were available.
• Yearly trend has rebounded to 5% y/y after 4.6% y/y the prior month.

 

Spain: Retail sales (real) (Aug.): -0.4% y/y (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.3%)

• Sales remained under contraction on real terms on a yearly basis.
• Sales were up by 0.3% m/m, driven by household goods and internet sales.
• The yearly trend was sharply negative for gasoline, while it was up by 2.5-2.9% y/y for household goods and internet sales.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 102.2 (prior: 98.4 revised from 98)

• Consumer confidence has rebounded over the month; opinions have improved on both the macro situation and personal situation.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 106.3 (prior: 106.5 revised from 107.1)

• Opinions have slightly decreased over the month in manufacturing while they regained in the construction sector.

 

Switzerland: KOF (Sept.): 109.1 vs 106 expected (prior: 107.5 revised from 106.7)

• Business sentiment has strongly regained, and prior month data were significantly revised up.
• The index was back to the high levels seen in 2021 and 2017.

 

UK: M4 (Aug.): 4.4% y/y (prior: 4.3%)

• M4 was up by 0.4% m/m after -0.3% m/m the prior month.
• M4 lending growth has slowed down to 6.5% y/y after 7.2% y/y the prior month.
• Credit to consumers was up by 9.6% y/y after 9.3% y/y prior month, but mortgage approvals has moderated to 54.9 k after 55.9 k the prior month.

US: Durable goods orders (Aug.): 0% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1.1%)

• Orders were flat over the month due to falling orders for defense and civil aircraft orders. On the opposite, core orders (orders for capital goods nondefense ex aircraft) were up by 1.6% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month.
• Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month) but were up by 0.6% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month) for core orders.
• Inventories were up by 0.5% m/m for both total and core orders.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sept.): 48.1 vs 47.5 expected (prior: 51.7)

• Consumer confidence has decreased from the prior month, but less than expected in the first estimate.
• Views on current conditions have decreased (index at 50.9 after 51.9 prior month), and expectations have also decreased (from 51.5 to 46.3), but less than initially estimated.
• Sentiment has decreased on financial situation, on both current and future economic conditions, and inflation expectations have increased.
• Fears regarding rising unemployment have increased as well as expectations of higher interest rates and gasoline prices.
• Willingness to buy autos and houses have decreased but remained positive on other items.
• 12M inflation expectations have increased from 4% prior month to 4.6% y/y and 5-10Y inflation expectations have increased from 3.3% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.

 

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -30.6 vs -27.2 expected (prior: -26.8 revised from -26.6)

• Consumer confidence has deteriorated more than expected over the month. Worries have increased about inflation and net income, while preference for saving has regained.
• The index was back to the level seen past May 2026.

 

Eurozone: M3 (Aug.): 3.5% y/y as expected (prior: 3.4%)

• M1 growth has slowed down from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.9% y/y as well as M2 growth from 3.3% to 3.2% y/y.
• On the opposite, trend in credit to the private sector has accelerated to 3.6% y/y from 3.4% y/y the prior month.
• Despite rising interest rates, the credit cycle remains sustained.

 

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Sept.): -13 vs -16 expected (prior: -14)

• Consumer confidence was slightly less negative than expected and the prior month.
• Views were less negative about economic situation and even more positive about future personal financial situation.

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept.19): 197k vs 200k expected (prior: 198k revised from 196k)

• Continuing claims: 1719 k after 1717 k prior week.

 

US: New home sales (Aug.): 684k vs 616k expected (prior: 643k revised from 607k)

• Sales were firmer in the Midwest and South districts while they declined further for Northeast and West districts.
• Inventories have declined over the month.
• Average prices of houses sold have decreased by 9% m/m.

 

France: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 86 vs 85 expected (prior: 86)

• Consumer confidence remained surprisingly stable.
• Opinions were less negative on economy, unemployment and prices but worries remained on personal financial situation.
• As the economic outlook looks fragile, it is possible to see weakening confidence next months.

 

France: Business confidence (Sept.): 96 vs 98 expected (prior: 98)

• Confidence in the manufacturing sector remained stable over the month.
• Total confidence has weakened on total orders due to falling domestic orders.
• Prices were on the rise.
• In parallel, confidence has slightly decreased in services and retail sectors.

 

Germany: IFO (Sept.): 89.9 vs 89 expected (prior: 88.8)

• Business confidence has gained further on current conditions (index from 88.5 prior month to 89.5) and expectations have increased further (index at 90.4 after 89).
• By sector, confidence was less negative over the month for manufacturing, trade and construction, and the index has turned positive for services.

 

Spain: PPI (Aug.): 2.9% m/m (prior: 3.1% revised from 3%)

• Prices remained on a sustained trend over the month due to further rises in energy, basic metals and electronic equipment.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 9.4% y/y prior month to 13.2% y/y.

 

Norway: The central bank has increased its key rates by 25 bp to 4.50% as expected.

• The bank mentioned it is necessary to maintain a high level of rates due to inflation and it is prepared to hike gain to bring inflation back to 2%.

 

Switzerland: The SNB left key rates unchanged at 0%, as expected.

• The bank reiterated its willingness to stay active in the FX market if necessary.
• The bank has revised up its inflation forecasts (0.7% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027 and 2028); upside risks remained due to energy and uncertainties in the Middle East. Inflation is expected to rise further next months and to reach 1.2%y/y in Q4-2026 and in Q1-2027.
• Growth is expected in a 1.5%-2% range in 2026, after strong results seen in H1-26, and to stay around 1.5% in 2027.
• The current monetary policy looks appropriate according to the SNB.