每日宏观动态

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 37 vs 33 expected (prior: 32)

• Confidence in the housing market has rebounded over the month; opinions turned more positive on both current and future sales and a firmer demand.

Italy: CPI (Sept.): 1.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Final data confirmed the large rebound in prices due to strong rise in clothes (26% m/m), and in hotel-restaurants costs.
• On the opposite, prices of energy-transport and culture were down over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.6% y/y the prior month to 1.8%y/y.

UK: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.9%)

• Industrial activity was down in mining and oil-gas sectors but rebounded in the manufacturing sector (0.7% m/m after -1.1% m/m the prior month).
• Within manufacturing, production was down for durable goods, intermediate and energy sectors; only investment goods and non-durable production was up over the month.
• Separately, activity in services was flat over the month (also flat the prior month) and construction down by 0.3% m/m; the GDP monthly proxy was up by 0.1% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month).

US: Empire manufacturing (Oct.): 10.7 vs -1.8 expected (prior: -8.7)

• Business confidence has unexpectedly sharply rebounded over the month.
• Sentiment on current situation and 6-M expectations have both rebounded, driven by higher new orders, shipments and employment.
• On the negative side, prices paid and received have rebounded in parallel.

Eurozone: Industrial production (Aug.): -1.2% m/m vs -1.6% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)

• Industrial activity has contracted over the month, but less than expected by the consensus.
• All sectors were down over the month, except non-durable consumer goods.
• Activity remained highly volatile over the month, notably at sector level.

France: CPI (Sept.): -1.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Final data confirmed the decline in prices, driven by falling transport costs (-13.5% m/m) and decreasing food prices. On the opposite, prices of clothes have continued to rise over the month (3.3% m/m after 5.6% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has increased from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 1.1% y/y.

Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

• Final data were slightly higher than expected due to strong rise in clothes (18.8% m/m) while food and recreation-culture prices were down over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.7% y/y the prior month to 3% y/y.

Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m (prior: 0%)

• Prices were stable over the month; prices of clothes and education were strongly up over the month but balanced by falling prices for food, transport-energy and recreation-culture.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 2.9% y/y.

Sweden: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices were up over the month for clothes, culture and restaurants-hotels, while they declined for food, housing and transport sectors.
• Yearly trend has marginally declined from 3.2% y/y prior month to 3.1%y and core inflation slightly decreased from 2.9% to 2.7% y/y. While trend in headline inflation is lowering, inflation in services remained sustained up by 4.3% y/y.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Sept.): 98.8 vs 100.6 expected (prior: 100.8)

• Confidence in small firms has sharply decreased over the month; the major changes came from falling sentiment on future economy and sales, while uncertainties have regained.
• After three months of an improving index, confidence has reverted.

Germany: Zew (Oct.): 39.3 vs 41.1 expected (prior: 37.3)

• Expectations have regained progressively after the fall seen past July.
• Sentiment on current situation has decreased again and the index was back to the lows seen in H1-25.
• By sector, sentiment among financial community has decreased for retail and auto sectors, while it has improved for chemical, pharma, electronics and IT sectors.

Germany: CPI (Sept.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final data confirmed modest rebound in inflation over the month driven by strong seasonal rebound in clothes and education; prices have declined over the month for energy-transport.
• Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y; note that several sectors such as food, health, education and hotels offer yearly trend still far above the 2% y/y trend.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Sept.): -1.8% m/m (prior: -1.8%)

• Prices remained in negative territory; import prices were down by 0.5% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month), and producer prices were just flat over the month (-0.8% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend remained stable over the month but negative for import prices (-2.7% y/y) and also negative for producer prices (-1.4% y/y after -1.3% y/y the prior month). Import prices remained the main deflationary forces in the Swiss economy.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 4.8% vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.7%)

• Claimant count has increased from 4.3% the prior month to 4.4%. Jobless claims has rebounded to 25.8 k after -2k the prior month.
• Employment (3M average) has increased by 91 k after 232 k the prior month; unemployed over 12M has increased significantly over the period.
• Vacancies have continued to regularly decline.
• Labor remained on a regular downward trend.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 5% y/y vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.8% revised from 4.7%)

• Ex bonuses, wage growth has slowed from 4.8% y/y the prior month to 4.7%, and from 4.7% to 4.4% for the private sector.
• Including bonuses, private sector wage growth remained up by 4.8% (4.7% y/y prior month) and trend remained strong in services (5.1% y/y) and in manufacturing (4.8% y/y).
• Data diverged between wage growth including bonus and this ex-bonus; the trend is slowing down but the BoE may prefer to wait further before cutting its rates again.

Germany: Wholesale price (Sept.): 0.2% m/m (prior: -0.6%)

• Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.7% y/y the prior month to 1.2% y/y.

Turkey: Current account (Aug.): 5.46bn USD vs 5.40bn expected (prior: 1.71bn revised from 1.77bn)

• Trade deficit on goods has reduced over the month and services surplus has regained as traditionally seen during the summer season.
• Official reserves have regained for the second month.
• Cumulated deficit YTD reached USD 15.9 bn and projections point to USD 18-23 bn total deficit in 2025; financing came mainly from private sector debt and slightly improving official reserves projections over the year.