每日宏观动态

US: Services PMI (Sept.): 54.2 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 54.5)

• Sentiment has finally marginally decreased from the prior month and the index remained high.
• Activity was supported by financial, leisure, and recreation sectors and by the tech sector too.
• Employment index has decreased over the month; selling prices have increased at slow pace.

 

US: ISM Services (Sept.): 50 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 52)

• Sentiment in services has decreased more than expected over the month (large firms more represented in ISM than in PMI index).
• The picture was mixed at the detailed level: falling opinions on new orders, activity and exports but positive on employment.
• Prices paid remained on the rise.
• The ISM index (both manufacturing and services) painted a more fragile situation than PMI composite, reflecting a more constructive view, this index is based on more domestic oriented firms and medium-sized firms.

 

France: Industrial production (Aug.): -0.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -1.1%)

• Industrial activity remained in contraction, but prior month data were revised up.
• Over the month, all sectors were down except mining and utilities. The fall was driven by autos and refineries.

 

Eurozone: Services PMI (Sept.): 51.3 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 50.5)

• Final data confirmed the monthly rebound in services, but slightly lower than expected.
• Opinions have improved from the prior month on new business in all countries; the rebound in services was broad based across major countries, except for France.
• Domestic demand was strong while exports remained weak; employment remained positive but has shown slowest pace compared to past months. The rise in costs and prices was the slowest versus prior months.
• Germany, Italy and Spain services indices have increased over the month and were comfortably above the 50 level.

 

UK: Services PMI (Sept.): 50.8 vs 51.9 expected (prior: 54.2)

• Momentum has deteriorated in services over the month; sentiment on new orders has also declined sharply but the index remained above 50 at 50.4.
• Opinions have deteriorated on activity, (uncertainty from budget and political situation) and new business, while external demand remained modest (weak demand from the eurozone); employment has decreased.
• Costs were on the rise (due to wage costs) but rises in final prices remained limited as competition was stronger.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• In non-seasonally adjusted data, unemployed has decreased over the month while seasonally adjusted data remained stable on the unemployment ratio.

 

Turkey: CPI (Sept.): 3.23% m/m vs 2.58% expected (prior: 2.04%)

• Monthly prices have sharply accelerated for education (18% m/m) and increased strongly for food, clothes and transport over the month.
• Yearly trend has re-accelerated for headline inflation at 33.29% y/y after 32.95% y/y the prior month; it declined a bit for core inflation from 33% y/y the prior month to 32.54% y/y.

Italy: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6% as expected (prior: 5.9% revised from 6%)

• The unemployment rate has just slightly increased over the month.
• Unemployed has marginally increased after two months of decline.
• The ratio remained close to its lowest level.

 

Switzerland: CPI (Sept.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Except prices of clothes on rebound over the month, all other main categories have shown falling prices: food, energy, leisure and transport. Core inflation was down by 0.2% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 0.2% y/y and core inflation stable at 0.8% y/y.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6.3% vs 6.2% expected (prior: 6.2%)

• Unemployed has marginally increased over the month.

US: ADP Employment change (Sept.): -32k vs 51k expected (prior: -3k revised from 54k)

• Job destructions have accelerated over the month and prior month data were significantly revised lower.
• Jobs in services have contracted by 28 k over the month and by 3 k in the manufacturing sector.
• While jobs have increased by 33 k in large firms they have sharply declined for small firms (-40K) and for medium-sized firms (-20k).
• While labor data will probably be not published next Friday due to US government shutdown, momentum remained negative on labor and downside risks are building justifying other Fed rate cuts.

 

US: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 52 as expected (prior: 53)

• Final PMI was in line with first estimate showing falling opinions on new orders and exports; costs and prices have increased further but at a slower pace.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (Sept.): 49.1 vs 49 expected (prior: 48.7)

• Business sentiment has slightly increased from the prior month, but the index remained below 50.
• Opinions have regained on production and employment but weakened on new orders, exports and inventories.
• Prices paid index has eased from the prior month.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 49.8 vs 49.5 expected (prior: 50.7)

• Final business sentiment came slightly less negative than expected in first estimate from the prior month.
• Nevertheless, sentiment has decreased in all 4 major countries, including Spain; sentiment has decreased on new orders, exports and employment too.
• Costs and prices charged have marginally decreased over the month for the first time.
• PMI indices passed below 50 for France, Germany and Italy but remained above 50 for Spain, Netherlands and Greece.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Sept.): 2.2% y/y as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Inflation was up by 0.1% m/m as expected and as seen the prior month. Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m as the prior month. Food prices were flat over the month but remained stable up by 3% y/y.
• Energy prices remained in contraction over the month (-0.1% m/m after -0.7% m/m prior month) and down by 0.4% y/y.
• Good prices were up by 2.2% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month) but remained stable at 0.8% y/y.
• Services were down by 0.9% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month) and up by 3.2% y/y.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 48 vs 47 expected (prior: 46.6)

• Business sentiment has regained, continuing a rebound initiated from past June. Nevertheless, the index remained below 50.
• Opinions on new orders have regained from prior month but the index remained below 50.

 

Norway: PMI (Sept.): 49.9 (prior: 49.6)

• Business sentiment has slightly regained from the prior month, opinions on new orders have eroded from 50.1 the prior month to 49.5.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 55.6 (prior: 55.3)

• Business confidence looks volatile but remained on a rising trend over past months.
• Sentiment has improved on domestic orders and employment, while they decreased on production, inventories and exports.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 46.3 vs 48 expected (prior: 49)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions have declined for production, orders, inventories and employment.
• In parallel, index for services has sharply rebounded from 43.9 the prior month to 51.3; opinions have regained on activity, orders and employment.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (Sept.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Prices have rebounded over the month and yearly trend has marginally accelerated from 2.1% y/y to 2.2% y/y.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 46.2 as expected (prior: 47)

• Final business confidence has decreased in line with the flash estimate; opinions have declined on production (temporary shutdown in auto production), new orders, exports and employment.
• After a rebound in June, PMI manufacturing has shown deteriorating trend.

 

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 46.5 (prior: 47.7)

• Business sentiment has decreased further, remaining on a downward trend.
• Opinions have decreased on production and new orders (latest related index at 43.8)

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 46.7 (prior: 47.3)

• Business confidence trended lower past quarters, even with volatile short-term rebound.

• Opinions on new orders have decreased from prior month at 44.9.

US: House price Index (FHFA) (Jul): -0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Single-family home prices fell less than anticipated.

 

US: Chicago PMI (Sep): 40.6 vs 43.3 expected (prior: 41.5)

• Chicago PMI missed expectations as new orders, employment, and production declined, while prices paid accelerated.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Aug): 7227k vs 7200k expected (prior: 7208k revised from 7181k)

• US job openings held steady in August, with hiring slowing to its weakest pace since June 2024 at 3.2%.
• Layoffs remained low, but voluntary quits fell to their lowest level this year, signaling waning worker confidence in finding new jobs.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Sep): 94.2 vs 96 expected (prior: 97.8 revised from 97.4)

• US consumer confidence dropped in September to a five-month low, weighed down by concerns over jobs and the economy.
• Current conditions hit a one-year low, while six-month expectations also declined.
• Despite weaker sentiment, resilient consumer spending continues to drive economic growth.

 

UK: GDP (2Q F): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Government spending rose by 1.3%, rebounding from a 0.2% decline, while gross fixed capital formation edged up 0.5%, revised from an initial 1.1% drop but still below Q1’s 1.9% growth.
• Business investment fell 1.1%, an improvement on the earlier estimate of a 4% plunge, but a sharp reversal from Q1’s 4% rise. Exports slipped 0.2% (vs. 1.7% growth), and imports flatlined after a 1.2% increase.
• On an annual basis, GDP grew 1.4%, beating the initial 1.2% estimate.

 

Germany: CPI (Sep P): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• German HICP inflation rose to 2.4% in September, up from 2.1% in August, driven by adverse energy base effects.

 

France: CPI (Sep P): -1.1% m/m vs -0.9% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• French inflation accelerated to 1.1% in September, up from 0.8% in August, driven by higher service costs and a slower drop in energy prices compared to last year.

 

Italy: CPI (Sep P): 1.3% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Headline HICP in Italy rose to 1.8% y/y in September from 1.6% y/y in August, above forecasts, driven mainly by base effects from road fuel costs.