每日宏观动态

US: Retail sales (Aug.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.6%)

• Sales were stronger than expected; all major sectors have rebounded over the month. Gasoil sales were stronger, but also reflecting higher prices, while sales via internet, restaurants and autos sales were also higher.
• Core sales (excluding food, gasoline, autos and building materials) were up by 1.4% m/m after -0.4% m/m the prior month.
• Despite weakening confidence and worries about inflation, consumption remained sustained.

US: NAHB housing market index (Sept.): 32 vs 34 expected (prior: 35)

• Confidence in housing remained on a weakening trend after the rebound seen in May-June.
• Over the month, opinions about current and future sales have decreased.

US: Business inventories (July): 0.8% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

• Inventories have increased by 0.8% m/m for manufacturers and up by 0.8% m/m in retailers.
• Total sales were up by 0.3% m/m.

Eurozone: Industrial production (July): -0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)

• Industrial activity has sharply decreased due to large fall in non-durable consumer goods (-1.6% m/m after 1.8% m/m prior month).
• Other sectors have shown a monthly rise in a decent 0.5%-0.9% m/m.

Italy: CPI (Aug.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.9%)

• Prices of clothes have sharply decreased over the month and prices of hotels-restaurants also decreased.
• Costs of energy, transport and communication were on the rise.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.7% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 8.9% vs 8.6% expected (prior: 8.6%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month.

UK: CPI (Aug.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• The monthly rebound was due to rising energy prices (3.8% m/m after 1.9% m/m prior month), transport and food.
• Prices of holidays and autos were down over the month. Services were up by 0.2% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• As seen prior month, there is no obvious spillover form energy to core inflation
• Yearly trend has accelerated as expected to 3.1% y/y from 2.9% y/y prior month; core inflation remained stable at 2.6% y/y.

UK: PPI Input prices (Aug.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -1.7%)

• Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 5.8% y/y prior month to 6.1% y/y.

UK: PPI Output prices (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

• The monthly rebound has been driven by costs of energy.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.3% y/y prior month to 3.7% y/y.

US: NY Empire manufacturing (Sept.): 7.6 vs 15 expected (prior: 20.6)

• Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month on both current conditions and 6-month views.
• Opinions have decreased about new orders and shipments for both; on current conditions, employees were on the rise and prices aid and prices received have increased further.
• The 6-month index has also decreased on key components but diverged on prices: lower prices received but higher prices paid.
• Despite the decrease in the 6-month views, it remained at high level compared to the 2022-2026 period.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (July): 4.9% as expected (prior: 4.9%)

• Claimant count was up to 4.4% after 4.3% prior month.
• Over the 3-month period, employment has decreased from 84 k prior period to 66 k and unemployed has slightly increased; unemployed over 12M have increased the most over the 3-month period.
• Over this period, self-employed and part-time workers have decreased the most.
• Payrolls (Aug. data) have decreased by 26 k after -19 k prior month; jobless claims have rebounded by 27.8 k over the month after -11.8k prior month.
• Vacancies remained on a decreasing trend.
• Labor remained on weak trend and continues to deteriorate.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (July): 3.9% y/y as expected (prior: 4.2% revised from 4.1%)

• Wage growth remained on a downward trend; disparities have increased further across sectors.
• Wage growth in public sector has accelerated by 6.6% y/y while in services the growth was only up by 4.2 % (4.5% y/y prior month).

France: CPI (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Final data confirmed monthly rebound, but just below expectations.
• Prices have increased for clothes, food, and energy (3.4% m/m after 2.3% m/m prior month) over the month.
• Services were down by 0.1% m/m thanks to a fall in transport costs.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.6% y/y.

Germany: Zew (Sept.): 34.7 vs 40 expected (prior: 34.2)

• Sentiment (business expectations) within financial community has increased, but less than expected.
• Views on current conditions have sharply rebounded over the month.
• By sector, views have improved for banks, retail, services, IT, and chemical sectors, but decreased for steel, electronics and construction.

Spain: CPI (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0%)

• Final data pointed to higher inflation over the month than estimated.
• Prices have sharply increased for transport, housing and recreation sectors, while they declined for clothes over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.9% y/y prior month to 4.6% y/y.

Poland: CPI (Aug.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Final data on inflation pointed to a lower monthly rebound than expected.
• Prices have rebounded for energy, transport and leisure sectors, while they declined for food over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.

Sweden: CPI (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly fall of inflation; prices were down for culture-leisure but up for clothes and utilities.
• Core inflation was down by 0.5% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend in headline inflation remained stable at 0.7% y/y and core inflation came down to 0.5% y/y after 0.6% y/y.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Aug.): 0.7% m/m (prior: -0.1%)

• Import prices were up by 1.9% m/m (-0.6% m/m prior month) and producer prices up by 0.2% m/m (flat the prior month).
• Yearly trend has rebounded on import prices (from -1.5% y/y to 0.8% y/y), while trend in producer prices remained negative (-1.3% y/y after -2.3% y/y prior month).

US: CPI (Aug.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Core inflation was up 0.3% m/m (vs 0.2% m/m expected) after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Energy and related sectors were mostly responsible for the elevated monthly figures.
• Energy prices were up 2.1% m/m after -1.5% m/m; fuel oil prices were up 10% m/m.
• Services were up 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month; shelter costs were up 0.3% m/m and transport costs up 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month (due to airfares, car rentals and repair). Education and communication were also on the rise over the month.
• Annual inflation remained unchanged from the prior at 3.4% y/y for the headline index while it decreased from 2.5% y/y to 2.4% y/y for core inflation.
• Inflation remains on a plateau, as expected in our scenario. Big monthly rises were related to energy. Nevertheless, there were no real positive surprises to convince the FOMC’s hawkish members not to hike. Dovish FOMC members have some positive surprises: a decline in core inflation trend and a stable trend on headline inflation; nothing except surging energy prices obliges the Ferd to act urgently.
• Next week’s FOMC will be live, but markets are now betting on a Fed rate hike (gradual tightening). If Warsh wants to keep interest rates stable, he will have to firmly justify his decision - and that of the FOMC.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sept Prel.): 47.8 vs 51.0 expected (prior: 51.7)

• Current conditions: 50.9 vs 51.3 expected (prior: 51.7)
• Expectations: 45.8 vs 51.0 expected (prior: 51.5)
• The expected change in median prices during the next year rose to from 4.0% to 4.6% (vs 4.2% expected). For the next 5-to 10 years, it rose to 3.4% (vs 3.3% expected) from 3.3%.
• Amid higher gasoline prices, US consumer sentiment fell much more than expected. Consumers' views about the economy for the coming year deteriorated this month to the lowest reading since July 2022.
• However, labor market expectations were little changed this month.
• Opinions of the government's economic policy worsened about 10% this month and remains significantly below the level it was just prior the Iran conflict.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Aug.): -32.8 vs -32 expected (prior: -34.8)

• Consumer confidence has improved again from the prior month and remains on a constructive trend.
• Views have improved regularly on the economic situation and future purchases; the financial situation has improved more than in previous months.

UK: Industrial production (July): 0.2% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Manufacturing production has rebounded by 0.9% m/m after -0.5% m/m prior month; the rebound was driven by food, pharma, metals, electronics and computers sectors over the month. Oil, gas and electricity sectors have contracted over the month.
• Construction was up 0.1% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Services were up 0.4% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month), mainly driven by transport, communication and finance sectors.
• The monthly proxy for GDP has increased by 0.4% m/m as seen the prior month.

Turkey: Current account (July): 0.04bn USD vs 0.70bn expected (prior: -4.33bn revised from -4.19bn)

• The trade balance has improved over the month thanks to falling imports; net services have rebounded in parallel.
• Official reserves were up USD 14.2 bn after USD 1.04 bn the prior month.