每日宏观动态

US: ISM Services (Jan.): 53.8 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.8 revised from 54.4)

• Unchanged from the December's level, which was the highest since October 2024.
• The composition of the report was a bit more mixed, with a pickup in business activity but softer new orders (to 53.1 from 56.5) and employment only just in expansion mode (down to 50.3 from 51.7).
• Prices paid rose to a 3-month high (66.6).
• According to the ISM, there was more commentary on tariff impacts and uncertainty.
• This report is consistent with solid GDP growth in Q1.

 

US: Services PMI (Jan. F.): 52.7 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 52.5)

• The services PMI was revised slightly upward from the preliminary release.

 

US: ADP Employment change (Jan.): 22k vs 45k expected (prior: 37k revised from 41k)

• Job creation remained weak and prior month’s figures were revised down.
• Job creation stagnated among small-sized firms, rose by 41 k in medium-sized firms and declined by 18k in large companies over the month.
• The bulk of job creation came from the services sector (+22k), while the industrial sector lagged far behind (+1k).
• These figures underscore persistent fragilities in the US labor market.

 

Eurozone: Services PMI (Jan.): 51.6 vs 51.9 expected (prior: 52.4)

• Final confidence in services has decreased more than expected over the month.
• Sentiment has decreased on new orders, backlog of orders while employment remained modestly positive; costs and selling prices were on the rise.
• By country, the index has decreased in all major countries, except Italy (up from 51.5 to 52.9); the sharpest fall was seen in Spain (53.5 after 57.1) and it slightly decreased in Germany and France; the French index passed below 50 to 48.4.

 

UK: Services PMI (Jan.): 54 vs 54.3 expected (prior: 51.4)

• The final data have confirmed last month’s rebound in sentiment, but the recover was slightly weaker than initially estimated.
• New orders have increased further from the prior month, and exports have improved. Sentiment around employment has deteriorated over the month.
• Costs and selling prices were on the rise over the month.

 

Eurozone: PPI (Dec.): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)

• Prices of energy have plummeted (-1.2% m/m), while prices of intermediate and durable consumer goods were up 0.3% m/m.
• The yearly trend has declined from -1.4% y/y prior month to -2.1% y/y.

 

Italy: CPI (Jan.): -1% m/m vs -1.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a large monthly fall in prices, probably due to energy prices.
• Inflation has declined from 1.2% y/y to 1.0% y/y.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Jan.): 1.7% y/y as expected (prior: 1.9%)

• Inflation was down 0.5% m/m (after 0.2% m/m) according to the preliminary data.
• The monthly decline was driven by falling prices for goods (-2.4% m/m) and services (-0.3% m/m), while energy prices were up 0.7% m/m and food prices up 0.9% m/m.
• Inflation has fallen below 2%, helped by a sharp decline in energy prices (-4.1% y/y). Food (2.7% y/y) and service (3.2% y/y) inflation remains high, while prices of goods stay on a moderate trend (0.4% y/y).

France: CPI (Jan.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a sharp fall in monthly inflation; good prices were down by 1.9% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month) and services were flat (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Food prices (0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month) and energy (0.6% m/m after -1.6% m/m prior month) remained sustained over the month.
• The yearly trend has declined from 0.7% y/y prior month to 0.4% y/y; this was helped by a large fall in energy (-7.8% y/y) and good prices (-1.2% y/y).

 

Turkey: CPI (Jan.): 4.84% m/m vs 4.30% expected (prior: 0.89%)

• Price have reaccelerated for several items: a rebound in monthly prices of food, health, transport, education and leisure over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 30.89% y/y to 30.65% y/y; core inflation has declined from 31.08% y/y to 29.8% y/y.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 52.4 vs 52 expected (prior: 51.8)

• Final data were higher than in first estimate and pointed to further rebound in industrial activity.
• Opinions have improved on production, more modestly in new orders, thanks to inventory rebuilding. Views on employment were positive, while exports remained weak.
• Costs and prices remained on the rise.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (Jan.): 52.6 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 47.9)

• After several months of sluggish sentiment and below 50 index, business sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month.
• The rebound was driven by higher new orders, production, and new export orders to a lesser extent.
• Views on employment and inventories have slightly increased while prices paid were also on the rise.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 49.5 vs 49.4 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Momentum has improved but details offered mix picture across countries.
• Sentiment has regained on production and improved on new orders, but index remained just below 50. Nevertheless, opinions remained weak on new exports. Costs were on the rise, due to energy and metal prices, but not reflected in selling prices and impacting margins.
• PMI has improved in Germany, France and Italy over the month, but weakened in Spain (index down from 49.6 prior month to 49.2).

 

Germany: Retail sales (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.6%)

• Sales have stabilized after past month fall.
• Sales have regained for autos and food but remained in contraction for pharma, IT goods and internet sales.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 48.8 vs 49.1 expected (prior: 48.5)

• Business sentiment has slightly regained over the month, thanks to slightly higher new orders, but index remained below 50.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 56 (prior: 55.4 revised from 55.3)

• Business sentiment has increased further and reached levels seen in 2018.
• In details, picture is mixed over the month, but all sub-indices remained well above the 50 level: sentiment gained further on new orders, domestic orders and employment, while it has decreased over the month for production and exports.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 48.8 vs 47.1 expected (prior: 46.4 revised from 45.8)

• Business sentiment has rebounded after the fall the prior month.
• Sentiment has rebounded on production (index at 50) and backlog of orders, but decreased on inventories and prices, while opinions remained stable on employment.
• In parallel, services PMI has rebounded from 51.4 prior month to 53.8; opinions have regained on activity, new orders, and costs and prices while it decreased on employment.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 51.8 vs 51.6 expected (prior: 50.6)

• Business sentiment has gained further over the month; opinions have regained on new orders, production and exports, as well as demand to rebuild inventories.
• Opinions remained low on employment, particularly in intermediate and consumer sectors.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (Jan.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4%)

• Prices were up by 1% y/y after 0.6% y/y the prior month.
• While activity in housing remained low, affordability has improved, but it was mainly centered on London area.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 48.1 (prior: 48.9)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions on new orders have also decreased in parallel.

US: Chicago PMI (Jan.): 54 vs 43.7 expected (prior: 42.7 revised from 43.5)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month.
• Views have turned more positive on orders, production and inventories; they decreased on prices and employment.

 

US: PPI (Dec.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Prices were firmer due to a strong rise in services and trade in particular (1.7% m/m after -0.6% m/m). Energy and food prices have strongly decreased over the month. Core PPI were up by 0.7% m/m (0% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend remained stable at 3% y/y and core PPI also stable at 3.5% y/y.

 

France: Consumer spending (Dec.): -0.6% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Consumption has contracted over the month; the fall was broad-based across sectors over the month, except energy (fuel and oil).

 

France: Producer Prices (Dec.): 0.2% m/m (prior: 2.8% revised from 1.1%)

• Yearly trend has declined to -2% y/y after -1.5% y/y prior month.

 

France: GDP (Q4-25): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• First estimate of GDP has shown a modest growth in Q4; consumption was up by 0.3%q after 0.1%q in Q3; purchases of goods were moderate while energy consumption has accelerated in Q4. Public consumption was up by 0.3%q after 0.7% in Q3.
• Capex has slowed down, up by 0.2%q after 0.7% q in Q3; household investment in housing was the only dynamic sector in Q4, while public investment quasi stagnated (0.1%q), and equipment was down (-0.1%q after 1%q).
• Net exports were positive (0.9pp): exports have slowed down (0.9%q after 3.2%q in Q3) but remained dynamic for transport sector; imports were heavily down (-1.7%q after 1.5%q) due to falling energy imports.
• Inventories have contracted over the quarter: -1 pp negative contribution to quarterly growth.
• The 2025 average growth was up by 0.9% after 1.1% in 2025; growth was mainly supported by public consumption, housing investment and positive contribution from inventories over the year.

 

Eurozone: GDP (Q4-25): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Activity was relatively sustained in Q4, with all GDP countries up and in a large range (0.2%-1.7%), except Ireland ( -0.6%q).

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 6.2% vs 6.3% expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

 

Germany: GDP (Q4-25): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0%)

• Preliminary data pointed towards resilient activity in Q4, due to private and public consumption according to official statistics; no details available yet.

 

Germany: CPI (Jan.): -0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to declining monthly inflation, probably related to lower clothes and leisure prices), while food prices were on the rise.
• The yearly trend has regained from 2.0% y/y to 2.1% y/y.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed was stable over the month after rising 3 k the prior month.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 5.6% vs 5.8% expected (prior: 5.6% revised from 5.7%)

• Unemployed has slightly decreased over the month.

 

Italy: PPI (Dec.): -0.9% m/m (prior: 1.3%)

• Yearly trend has declined from -0.3% y/y prior month to -2% y/y.

 

Italy: GDP (Q4-25): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• GDP growth was firmer than expected in Q4; not details are yet available, but it seems domestic demand and inventories have driven activity in Q4.

 

Spain: CPI (Jan.): -0.7% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data pointed to lower inflation; no details available but lower energy prices have driven headline lower.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.0% y/y prior month to 2.5% y/y.

 

Spain: GDP (Q4-25): 0.8% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Preliminary data have shown sustained growth, driven by domestic consumption; no details available.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)

Norway: Retail sales (Dec.): -0.7% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.2%)

Sweden: Retail sales (Dec.): -0.7% m/m (prior: 1.1%)

• Yearly trend has slowed down to 1.5% y/y after 6.9% y/y prior month.

 

Switzerland: KOF (Jan.): 102.5 vs 103 expected (prior: 103.6 revised from 103.4)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month, but the index remained high.

 

UK: M4 (Dec.): 4.7% y/y (prior: 4.3%)

• M4 lending was up by 5.8% y/y after 4.8% y/y prior month; loans to corporates remained stable over the month.
• Mortgage approvals have decreased from 64.1 M prior month to 61 M.