每日宏观动态

US: Trade balance (July): -88.6 bn USD vs -90.2 bn expected (prior: -71.2 bn revised from -73.3 bn)

• Trade deficit excluding oil has increased from USD 83 bn the prior month to USD -98.2 bn.
• Exports were down by 2.1% m/m after -0.8% m/m the prior month; exports of consumer goods have increased but those of industrial goods have sharply declined.
• Imports were up by 2.8% m/m (-1.8% m/m prior month); this rebound was mainly due to purchases of capital goods.

 

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-26): 1.4% q/q as expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Output was up by 1.7%q in Q2 after 1.5% in Q1. Total wages were up by 2.6%q (2.1% in Q1) and unit labor costs were up by 1.2%q after 1.3%q in Q1.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 29): 206k vs 205k expected (prior: 204k revised from 203k)

• Continuing claims: 1779 k after 1771 k the prior week.

 

US: Services PMI (Aug.): 56.5 vs 56.8 expected (prior: 54.6)

• Final data has confirmed the rebound from the prior month, but at a slower pace than expected.
• Opinions have improved further on activity, driven by a rebound in exports and firmer domestic demand; views on employment were more positive.
• Prices and costs have moderated but remained high.

 

US: ISM Services (Aug.): 55.4 vs 54.1 expected (prior: 54.1)

• Confidence in services has rebounded more than expected over the month; the improvement was broad-based across components.
• Opinions have rebounded on activity, new orders, exports and also employment.
• Prices paid have also strongly rebounded in parallel.

 

Eurozone: Services PMI (Aug.): 51.6 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 51.7)

• Final sentiment in services has just marginally decreased from the prior month, but the index remained at high level.
• PMI has increased further in Italy (index at 55.2 from 52.5), decreased from high level in Spain (from 58.3 to 57.8) and was quite stable in Germany (49.7 after 49.8) but decreased in France (from 49.6 to 48).
• Activity was still sustained in global domestic demand but marginally lower on exports.
• Employment remained on a positive trend.
• Cost and prices remained on the rise.

 

Eurozone: PPI (July): 1.6% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Prices have rebounded due to energy prices up by 5.6% m/m after -1.3% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 4.6% y/y prior month to 5.8% y/y.

 

Switzerland: CPI (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Monthly prices have rebounded due mainly to energy (4.1% m/m vs -0.3% m/m prior month) and to goods (clothes) up by 1% m/m after -0.7% m/m the prior month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has strongly rebounded to 0.8% y/y from 0.4% y/y the prior month and for core inflation from 0.5% to 0.7% y/y.

 

Switzerland: GDP (Q2-26): 1.9% q/q vs 1.7% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)

• Consumption was up by 0.3%q (0.1% in Q1); capex was up by 0.8% q (-1.2% in Q1) and construction up by 0.7%q (0.2%q in Q1).
• Exports were down by 1.5% q and imports down by 0.8% q; net trade was a drag on GDP compared to Q1.

 

UK: Services PMI (Aug.): 52.5 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 52.1)

• Final confidence in services has rebounded less than initially estimated. Activity was mainly driven by domestic demand while exports have decreased over the month.
• New business index was just slightly above 50, marginally decreasing from the prior month; opinions have decreased on employment.
• Costs and prices have increased over the month.

 

Turkey: CPI (Aug.): 1.84% m/m vs 1.92% expected (prior: 1.78%)

• Monthly changes were lower than expected but driven by large rises in energy-transport and education.
• Yearly trend has declined from 31.75% y/y prior month to 31.51% y/y. Core inflation was up by 30% y/y after 29.9% y/y prior month.

US: ADP Employment change (Aug): 38k vs 47k expected (prior: 44k)

• Private employers added jobs more slowly than in the spring, but the labor market remains steady. Hiring was led by education and health services, with leisure and hospitality also contributing. Manufacturing, by contrast, shed jobs.
• The figures suggest a balanced labor market balance, giving the Federal Reserve room to focus on inflation.

 

US: Factory orders (Jul): 0.9% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

• US factory orders snapped back, lifted by a 2.3% rise in transportation equipment, driven largely by a 12.7% surge in civilian aircraft and parts.
• Strip out transportation and orders still climbed 0.6%; exclude defense and they rose a stronger 1.0%.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 53.9 vs 53.4 expected (prior: 53.9)

• Final business sentiment remained stable over the month.
• Opinions have decreased on production and exports but increased on employment.
• The increase in prices paid has moderated over the month.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (Aug.): 54.6 vs 55.2 expected (prior: 55.6)

• Business confidence has decreased from the prior month, but the index remained high.
• Opinions have slightly decreased on production and new orders and decreased more on backlog of orders, inventories and employment.
• Export orders have increased; prices paid remained stable.
• Both PMI and ISM manufacturing remained at high level, but components show some volatility in activity and slower momentum.

 

US: Construction spending (July): -0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.1%)

• Residential spending has decreased by 1.3% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (July): 7271k vs 7313k expected (prior: 7182k revised from 7359k)

• Jobs openings have increased over the month, but prior month data were significantly revised lower.
• Job opening has increased only for health and government sectors; openings have decreased for trade-transport, business services and leisure-hospitality.
• In parallel, hirings, separations and quits have decreased over the month.
• Labor seems to stabilize, but on lower level of hiring and firing. Growth engines in labor demand from trade-transport and business services have moderated over the past months.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Aug.): 3.3% y/y as expected (prior: 2.9%)

• Preliminary inflation has increased by 0.4% m/m, as expected, after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Energy prices were up by 2.9% m/m after 2.7% m/m the prior month.
• Good prices were up by 0.6% m/m after -2.2% m/m and services up by 0.1% m/m after 1.1% m/m prior month.
• Core inflation has increased by 0.2% m/m after 0% the prior month; inflation pressures come mainly from the energy sector, with no major signs of spillover effects.
• Core inflation was down to 2.4% y/y after 2.5% y/y the prior month.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (July): 6.4% vs 6.3% expected (prior: 6.4% revised from 6.3%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 52.7 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Final data confirmed the increase of business sentiment from the prior month but marginally less than expected.
• Germany has driven the monthly increase with index up to 54.3 (from 52.2 prior month). New orders and production were on the rise as well as exports.
• Disparities across countries has increased with French index slightly up (from 49.8 to 51.1) but decreasing confidence in Italy (49.6) and Spain (49.5).
• Selling prices have not increased further but remained at high level.

 

Italy: CPI (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.0%)

• Preliminary data pointed to monthly rises in energy-transport and also in leisure communication while prices of goods (clothes) have decreased.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.2% y/y from 2.9% y/y prior month.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (July): 5.8% vs 5.6% expected (prior: 5.8% revised from 5.7%)

• Unemployed has marginally increased over the month.

 

Italy: GDP (Q2-26): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• GDP growth has been confirmed, and details were published.
• Consumption and investment were sustained, while public spending has decreased; imports have strongly rebounded, being a drag on quarterly growth.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 48.3 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 49)

• Falling new orders have driven business confidence lower on the month.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 56.1 (prior: 55.7 revised from 55.8)

• Business confidence has slightly increased over the month; details offered a mixed picture, with rising production and employment but decreasing opinions on new orders and exports.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 57.1 vs 54 expected (prior: 53.2)

• Sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month; opinions have increased on production, orders and employment and decreased on prices.
• In parallel, the PMI services has sharply declined from 63.9 prior month to 58.3; views have decreased on activity, new business and prices.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (August): 51.7 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased over the month; sentiment has decreased on new orders, while production and employment were positively oriented.
• Selling prices have increased but moderately.

 

UK: M4 (July): 4.5% y/y (prior: 5.0%)

• Mortgage approvals have decreased from 58.2 k the prior month to 56.1 k.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (Aug.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

• Prices were up by 1.6% y/y after 1.4% y/y prior month.

 

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 46.3 (prior: 47.5)

• Business sentiment has decreased, driven lower by decreasing new orders.

 

Brazil: GDP (Q2-26): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.1%)

• Consumption was down by 0.4% q, but investment remained on positive trend (1.2%q after 3.4% in Q1); net trade was a drag on growth as imports have strongly rebounded,

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 48.1 (prior: 47.7)

• New orders have slightly increased over the month, but its related index remained below 50.

Germany: CPI (Aug.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Preliminary inflation has pointed to a limited monthly rise, slightly below expectations.
• According to preliminary data, the monthly inflation was mainly driven up by energy and transport, and also clothes, and education.
• The yearly trend was up by 2.9% y/y after 2.8% y/y prior month.

 

Poland: CPI (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Preliminary inflation pointed to a sharp monthly rise due to higher oil prices, up by 5.2% m/m.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.4% y/y after 3.0% y/y the prior month.

 

Poland: GDP (Q2-26): 1% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Domestic demand was stronger over the quarter; consumption was up by 0.8%q and capex up by 3.7%q; exports and imports were both more dynamic over the quarter.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 8.1% (prior: 7.6%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month, while employed and labor force have decreased.

 

Turkey: GDP (Q2-26): 1.1% q/q vs 1.0% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• Growth has accelerated over the quarter on firmer domestic demand.