每日宏观动态

Norway: Industrial production (May): -1% m/m (prior: 0.6%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.7% m/m after -0.6% m/m the prior month, while oil-extraction activity was down by 2.6% m/m.
• Within manufacturing, production has rebounded for electricity and gas, and to a lesser extend food and machinery.

Turkey: Current account (May): -1.46bn USD vs -1bn expected (prior: -5.62bn revised from -5.7bn)

• Current account position has improved from the prior month thanks to lower imports and rising surplus on services.
• Balance of energy has deteriorated while improvement was seen on goods and gold. Net inflows from FDI and portfolios were down by USD 1.8 bn from the prior month.
• Official reservices have declined by USD 3.3 bn after USD +12 bn the prior month.

France: CPI (June): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly fall of inflation; the move was led by declining energy prices (oil prices: -7% m/m) and also food prices. Services were up by 0.5% m/m, due to transport, communication and leisure.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.8% y/y to 2.0% y/y.

Germany: CPI (June): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly fall on inflation; the driver was mainly energy (oil prices down by 5.8% m/m after -7.2% m/m prior month), and also by the fall of prices of food and clothes.
• The yearly trend has declined from 2.7% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y.

Italy: Industrial production (May): -0.3% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

• Production has contracted after the rebound the prior month.
• Activity was negative over the month in all sectors except energy; the largest monthly fall was seen in consumer durable goods, down by 2.5% m/m after +2.9% m/m the prior month.

Norway: CPI (June): -0.2% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

• Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.7% y/y; no details at sector level were available.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (June): -35.8 vs -35 expected (prior: -38.1)

• Consumer confidence has continued to improve after large fall seen past March; sentiment has improved on economic outlook, while progress remained limited about future purchases.

Turkey: Industrial production (May): -2.9% m/m (prior: 3.8% revised from 3.7%)

• Production in manufacturing was down by 3.3% m/m after 4.5% m/m the prior month; only the mining sector was positive in terms of activity over the month.

US: Initial jobless claims (July 4): 215k vs 217k expected (prior: 217k revised from 215k)

• Unemployment applications remain low, indicating a solid labor market.
• Continuing claims: 1814 k after 1806 prior week.

US: Existing home sales (Jun): 4.09M vs 4.20M expected (prior: 4.19M revised from 4.17M)

• Sales of previously owned US homes fell 2.4% in June, as high mortgage rates kept buyers on the sidelines.

Germany: Trade Balance (May): 19.1bn EUR vs 14.8bn expected (prior: 14.7bn revised from 14.5bn)

• Trade surplus has rebounded as imports have declined over the month.
• Exports were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.8% m/m the prior month; imports were down by 2.5% m/m after 1.1% m/m the prior month.
• It is interesting to note that exports have rebounded towards China and the US; imports from the US have also strongly rebounded over the month.

UK: RICS house price balance (June): -33% vs -30% expected (prior: -35% revised from -35%)

• The balance of opinion improved over the month, becoming less negative, with gains driven by house sales and new instructions.
• Despite this monthly improvement, the index remained at depressed level.

US: Wholesale inventories (May): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Final data pointed to more modest rise in inventories. Those for computers remained on the rise while they declined for autos.
• Sales were up by 3.4% m/m after 2.2% m/m the prior month; sales were sustained for all sector, and particularly computers, while they were relatively more modest for autos.

Sweden: CPI (June): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to lower prices for food, clothes and moderately energy. Core inflation was still up by 0.6% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.5% y/y the prior month to 1.3% y/y and core inflation from 0.5% y/y to 0.4% y/y.

Sweden: Industrial production (May): 0.6% m/m (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.7%)

• Activity in industry was up by 0.2% m/m (4.2% m/m prior month) and services up by 1% m/m (0.5% m/m the prior month).
• Proxy for GDP was up by 0.9% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month.