每日宏观动态

US: ADP Employment change (May): 122k vs 120k expected (prior: 105k revised from 109k)

• Job creations were firmer than expected and higher than the prior month.
• Creations have accelerated in small firms and rebounded for medium-sized firms.
• Jobs in services have increased to 114 k, driven by education-health, trade-transport and a positive reversal in business services, the same sectors seen on the rise in the JOLTS survey.

 

US: Services PMI (May): 50.7 vs 51 expected (prior: 51)

• Business confidence has decreased more than in the first estimate (50.7) from the prior month.
• Demand was subdued facing rising uncertainties and exports were down, as well as employment.
• Index on prices paid has decreased over the month but it remained at a high level.

 

US: ISM Services (May): 54.5 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 53.6)

• Sentiment in services has increased further but the index still remained below the 56-level seen in past Feb.
• Opinions have increased further on production, new orders and inventories while they decreased over the month on employment and exports.
• Prices paid remained on the rise, reaching its highest level for this year.

 

US: Factory orders (April): 4.8% m/m vs 4.6% expected (prior: 1.8% revised from 1.5%)

• Orders have accelerated over the month thanks to orders in defense and civil aircrafts.
• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core goods) were down by 1% m/m after a string 3.8% m/m prior month.
• Shipments were up by 1% m/m after 1.5% m/m the prior month; shipments for core orders were up by 0.4% m/m after 1.3% m/m prior month.
• Inventories were up by 0.3% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and up by 0.2% m/m for core orders.

 

Eurozone: PPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 3.4%)

• While energy prices were down by 0.4% m/m (11% m/m the prior month), prices of intermediate goods were up by 1.8% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month).
• Core PPI were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 4.9% y/y after 2% y/y the prior month; after pressures from energy, inflation was fueled by raw materials and intermediate goods prices, maintaining upside risks to inflation.

 

Eurozone: Services PMI (May): 47.7 vs 46.4 expected (prior: 47.6)

• Final data were better than in the first estimates, as the index has marginally increased over the month.
• Demand has weakened, as well as views on employment, while pressures on costs remained in place; rises in selling prices were more moderate than prior month.
• Final data have shown a less sharp decrease in French index (44.3 after 46.5) from the prior month, a rebound in Spain (50.1 after 47.9), and in Germany (48.1 after 46.9).
• Except Spain, index remained below 50, pointing to a weak and fragile trend in services.

 

UK: Services PMI (May): 49.3 vs 47.9 expected (prior: 52.7)

• The final data were less negative than in the first estimate, with the index just below 50.
• Lower and deferred demand and rising uncertainties have weighed down on the sector.
• Costs remained on the rise, but selling prices have increased more slowly than past month.
• Composite PMI has decreased from 52.6 prior month to 49.7.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (April): 7618k vs 6866k expected (prior: 6887k revised from 6866k)

• Demand has strongly rebounded over the month and the improvement has concerned all sectors.
• The demand has particularly increased for business services and education-health over the month, and a positive trend remained in place for trade-transport; a higher demand was also seen for construction, manufacturing and government sectors.
• Hirings seemed more difficult and have decreased over the month, notably in the sectors in which the demand for new jobs was in rebound (trade-transport, business services and education-health).
• Separations have decreased over the month for all sectors except leisure-hospitality.
• The rebound in activity and the improving sentiment has increased demand for jobs from the firms, that seemed to have difficulties to fulfill their rising demand.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (May): 3.2% y/y as expected (prior: 3.0%)

• Inflation has moderated over the month, being up by 0.1% m/m after 1.0% m/m the prior month.
• Energy prices have decreased by 1.1% m/m after 3.0% m/m the prior month; prices in other sectors remained contained, with food prices flat, goods prices up by 0.2% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and services up by 0.4% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month). Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.9% m/m past month.
• Despite a moderate monthly change, the yearly inflation trend has accelerated further, notably for core inflation settling at 2.5% y/y (2.4% expected) after 2.2% y/y the prior month; the rising trend in services (3.5% y/y after 3.0% y/y prior month) have added to the trend in parallel with energy prices up by 10.9% y/y; other prices remained limited, with food up by 2% y/y and good prices up by 0.9% y/y.
• These data confirm the next ECB rate hike expected in June.

 

Switzerland: Trade balance (April): 3.22 Bn CHF (prior: 2.61Bn)

• Real exports were up by 3% m/m after -3.6% m/m prior month; exports of machinery were solid while those of chemical and pharma products have decreased.
• Real imports were up by 4.1% m/m after 2.1% m/m prior month. Imports of energy were on the rise.

 

UK: M4 (May): 4.5% y/y (prior: 4.3%)

• Mortgage approvals have increased over the month (65.9 k after 64 k the prior month); consumer credit was up by 8.8% y/y, driven by credit cards.

US: Manufacturing PMI (May): 55.1 vs 55.3 expected (prior: 54.5)

• Final data confirmed the increase in business sentiment, but slightly less than in the first estimate.
• Production has expanded more rapidly than new orders and inventories have increased; domestic demand was driven by inventory rebuilding and fears of rising disruption, with increasing delivery time.
• Employment was better oriented with a rebound in production while prices remained on a strong rise.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (May): 54 vs 53 expected (prior: 52.7)

• Business sentiment has expanded to high level; views have gained further on production, new orders, export orders, inventories, backlog of orders; views have increased on employment, but its related index remained below 50, contrary to the other sub-components.
• Delivery time remained at a high level (existing disruption) but was stable over the month.
• Prices paid remained at high level but have stabilized over the month.

 

US: Construction spending (April): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.6%)

• New construction remained sustained for residential construction and particularly those of single-family houses.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (May): 51.6 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 52.2)

• Final business sentiment has decreased from the prior month but less than estimated. The global index remained above 50 and new orders, which decreased, remained at 50 (49.8 in first estimate) from 51.5 the prior month.
• The resilience of the index was mainly due to extended delivery time, which is not good news as related to disruption from the closure of Hormuz.
• Opinions have deteriorated on new exports and employment, while costs and prices are still expanding rapidly.
• PMI passed below 50 in France (49.7) but remained close to 50 in Germany (50.1 after 51.4); sentiment remained positive in Italy (52.9 after 52.1) and eased moderately in Spain (51.2 after 51.7 prior month).

 

Eurozone: M3 (April): 2.7% y/y vs 3.1% expected (prior: 3.2%)

• Monetary aggregates have shown slower growth: M1 was up by 3.8% y/y (4.7% y/y prior month), and M2 up by 2.9% y/y (3.2% y/y prior month).
• Credit to private sector was up by 3% y/y after 3.2% y/y in March.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (April): 6.3% vs 6.2% expected (prior: 6.3% revised from 6.2%)

• The unemployment ratio remained stable after minor upward revisions the prior month.
• Unemployed in the area remained on a decreasing trend after a rebound seen past Feb.

 

Germany: Retail sales (April): -0.3% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -2%)

• Retails sales remained under contraction even after prior month data were strongly revised up.
• All sectors except food were in contraction (real terms) over the month.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (May): 49.4 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Business sentiment has regained from the prior month thanks to rising new orders, but both indices remained below 50.

 

Poland: GDP (Q1-26): 0.6% q/q vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.0%)

• Growth remained sustained thanks to capex and public consumption (both related to the defense sector) over the period.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (May): 57.3 (prior: 57 revised from 57.2)

• Business sentiment has slightly increased with rising opinions on production, exports and employment.
• On the opposite, views have decreased on new orders, inventories; pressure on prices have marginally eased over the month.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (May): 57.3 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 54.5)

• Business sentiment has increased on production, orders, delivery time and employment; views have decreased on inventories and marginally on prices paid.
• Separately, services PMI has rebounded from 54.8 prior month to 56.5, due to firmer activity and orders; but employment has decreased and selling prices were still on a rising trend.

 

Switzerland: GDP (Q1-26): 0.7% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Final data pointed to resilient growth in Q1; GDP in sport-adjusted data (Winter Olympics) was up by 0.4% in Q1.
• Consumption was flat over the quarter and capex has contracted on both equipment and construction.
• Public consumption was strong (0.9%q) and net exports have strongly contributed to GDP growth (0.8 pp and 0.4 pp in sport-adjusted data).

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (May): -0.6% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Prices have contracted over the month due to rising uncertainties and lower demand.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.0% y/y the prior month to 1.7% y/y.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (May): 53.9 vs 53.7 expected (prior: 53.7)

• Final business sentiment has marginally increased from the prior month and index on new orders has just marginally eroded (52.7 after 52.8 prior month).
• Sentiment has improved on production, but it was related to front-loaded demand and disruption was mentioned with rising delivery time. Employment was more positive, while costs and selling prices have sharply increased.

 

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (May): 49.1 (prior: 52.6)

• Business confidence has decreased, and the related index passed below the 50 level; new orders have sharply declined from 48.9 the prior month to 45.2.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (May): 49.8 (prior: 45.7)

• Business confidence has strongly rebounded, driven by new orders but both indices remained just below 50.

 

Turkey: GDP (Q1-26): 0.1% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Consumption growth has slowed down (0.1%q after 4.2%q in Q4-25) and exports and capex have both contracted; only public consumption was strongly up over the quarter.

US: Wholesale inventories (April): 0.5% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.3%)

• Inventories have increased particularly for autos.

 

US: Chicago PMI (May): 62.7 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 49.2)

• Business sentiment has sharply rebounded over the month; opinions have rebounded on production, new orders, and inventories and time of delivery.
• Prices were also on the rise, while employment has decreased.

 

France: Consumer spending (April): -0.5% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.7%)

• Spending was down due to a large fall in oil consumption, reflecting higher prices; other sectors were also down over the month, except sales of clothes.

 

France: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.2%)

• Inflation has slowed down over the month in flash estimate; energy prices were still up by 0.8% m/m after 4.7% m/m the prior month. Prices in other sectors were limited: prices of goods up by 0.1% m/m, services flat and food up by 0.4% m/m. fresh food prices were up by 2.6% m/m after 1.0% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 2.8% y/y after 2.5% y/y prior month.

 

France: GDP (Q1-26): -0.1% q/q vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• GDP growth was revised lower from the first estimate.
• Consumption was down by 0.2%q (0.3% q in Q4-25), due to falling consumption of energy and food, while services were up by 0.2%q and goods up by 0.1% q.
• Public consumption was up by 0.3%q after 0.2%q in Q4-25.
• Capex was down by 0.6% q (0.2% q in Q4-25); the fall was due to construction, but investment has also fallen for public sector and firms’ capex in Q1.
• Net exports were negative while inventories have strongly rebounded in Q1.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (May): 6.3% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.4%)

• Unemployed has slightly declined over the month after a rebound the prior month.

 

Germany: CPI (May): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Prices of energy and food have declined over the month, while package holidays have rebounded.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.9% y/y prior month to 2.7% y/y.

 

Italy: CPI (May): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.6%)

• Flash estimate pointed to still sustained monthly change in inflation. Rises in energy and services were responsible for the monthly rise.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.8% y/y prior month to 3.3% y/y.

 

Italy: GDP (Q1-26): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• GDP growth was revised higher than in the first estimate.
• Consumption was up by 0.5%q (0.1% inQ4-25), and capex up by 0.7%q (1.0% q in Q4-25); net trade contribution was more positive over the quarter.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (April): 5.1% vs 5.3% expected (prior: 5.2%)

• Unemployed has slightly decreased over the month.

 

Spain: CPI (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Flash estimate pointed to moderate monthly rise in prices; services were up over the month due to transport and package holidays while energy prices still benefited from the cut in VAT (from 21% to 10% until June).
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.5% y/y prior month to 3.6% y/y.

 

Poland: CPI (May): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Flash estimate pointed to a declining monthly inflation; fuels and food prices have decreased over the month while electricity and gas costs were stable.
• Yearly trend has slightly declined to 3.1% y/y after 3.2% y/y the prior month.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (May): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month but seasonally adjusted data remained stable.

 

Norway: Retail sales (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Sales have rebounded over the month after contraction seen the prior month.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (April): 0% m/m (prior: 2.9% revised from 3.1%)

• Sales were on pause after prior month rebound.

 

Sweden: GDP (Q1-26): -0.2% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.5%)

• GDP contraction in Q1 was driven by falling capex and public consumption (swing s in defense spending), negative trade contribution while consumption was up by 0.6%q.

 

Switzerland: KOF (May): 98 as expected (prior: 97.8 revised from 97.9)

• Business sentiment has slightly regained form the prior month; the trend is improving since the low seen in March.