每日宏观动态

US: Initial jobless claims (June 6): 229k vs 220k expected (prior: 225k)

• Continuing claims: 1795 k after 1771 k the prior week.

US: PPI (May): 1.1% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1.4%)

• PPIs remained on a sustained monthly rise; energy prices were up by 10.7% m/m after 7.5% m/m prior month and services were up by 0.3% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month): while costs on trade have decreased, they rebounded for warehouses costs.
• Core PPIs were up by 0.8% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 5.7%y/y prior month to 6.5% y/y and on core PPIs from 4.4% to 5.1% y/y.

ECB Meeting: decisions to raise all major key rates by 25 bp; deposit rates now at 2.25%.

• A unanimous decision has increased key rates by 25 bp because all inflation indicators have increased over the recent period; this was not an insurance hike, but a decision motivate by the mandate on inflation stability.
• Uncertainties remain in place with both upside risk on inflation and downside risk on growth.
• Further decisions on rates are data dependent and taken meeting by meeting; the ECB did not want to preset next moves in rates but seems ready to hike further if necessary.
• Recent rises in core inflation and services are related to both direct and indirect pressures from energy, but Lagarde said no second-round effects were identified; otherwise, inflation expectations remained anchored on the medium term.
• Lagarde answered to critics about this first hike by arguing that growth is still present in the area; the new ECB’s scenario expects 0.8% GDP growth in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028 (forecasts in line with consensus but higher than UBP scenario).
• Inflation forecasts have been revised up: 3% in 2026 (2.5% core inflation), 2.3% in 2027 (core at 2.5%) and 2.0% in 2028 (2.2% on core inflation). The ECB expects a gradual return to 2% target only in 2028.
• The inflation stability mandate has obliged to this first rates hike; the door is open to another rate hike, but communication refrains from being too hawkish and to pre-commit the other hike.
• To avoid a second-rate hike, a much slower growth must be identified or a quick resolution of the Middle East conflict with lower oil prices and stable/lower core inflation. Rates in a 2-2.5% range could be seen as remaining in the neutral stance and not yet particularly restrictive.

Sweden: CPI (May): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Final data confirmed the acceleration of inflation over the month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.7% m/m after -0.6% m/m. Various sectors offered a significant monthly rise: housing utilities, household goods, leisure and hotels.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 0.8% y/y prior month to 1.5% y/y; core inflation was up by 0.5% y/y after 0% y/y prior month.

UK: RICS house price balance (May): -35% vs -32% expected (prior: -35% revised from -34%)

• Opinions on housing stayed depressed over the month; opinions were less negative on current sales but more negative on prices and on new demand. Inventories have increased over the month.

US: CPI (May): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Inflation came in line with expectations, and core inflation was just below expectations up by 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% m/m expected (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Inflation remained mainly driven by energy prices, up by 3.9% m/m (3.8% m/m prior month), due to gasoline prices up by 7% m/m (5.4% m/m prior month).
• Good prices were down by 0.1% m/m after 0% prior month; the sector offered limited monthly changes at sub-sector level; on note: the modest rise in apparels (now less impacted by tariffs), balanced by decreasing prices of cars.
• Services were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.5% m/m; rents have moderated, up by 0.3% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month; transport costs have declined, except airfares up by 2.7% m/m (2.8% m/m prior month); other services were on the rise: medical, recreation, education-communication and personal services (finance).
• Yearly trend was in line with expectations with headline up by 4.20% after 3.8% and core inflation modestly up to 2.9% y/y after 2.8%y/y.
• Inflation has now exceeded 4% y/y as expected in our scenario, but spillover to the other sectors remained limited and core inflation stayed just below 3%; nevertheless, many sub sectors in services were on the rise over the month and could be under watch as yearly trend in services was up by 3.4% y/y (3.3% y/y prior month).

Italy: Industrial production (April): 0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)

• Production remains on a positive and sustained trend for capital goods and also on intermediate goods; On the opposite, production of consumer goods has decreased further, showing regular monthly declines over the past 6 months.
• Production of energy has also contracted over the past 3 months.

Norway: CPI (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Inflation data was mixed over the month; prices of transport and food have decreased over the month, while household goods, communication and restaurants-hotels were on the rise. Some tax cuts have helped to moderate inflation pressures. Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined on headline inflation from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.1% y/y, while core inflation has accelerated from 3.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y.

Sweden: Industrial production (April): 1.7% m/m (prior: 0.8% revised from 1.1%)

• Production has rebounded in industry, up by 4.2% m/m after -1.6% m/m prior month; services were up by 0.2% m/m after 2.2% m/m prior month.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (May): 95.3 vs 96 expected (prior: 95.9)

• Business sentiment has marginally decreased over the month, contrary to consensus expectations.
• Sentiment came slightly lower than prior month on future economic but remained stable on employment.
• While costs are under pressure, selling prices were on the rise.
• Disruption in supply chain was also mentioned as a constraint.

US: Trade balance (April): -55.9 bn USD vs -56.1 bn expected (prior: -56.6 bn revised from -60.3 bn)

• Exports were up by 2.6% m/m after 2.0% m/m prior month and imports up by 2% m/m after 2.3% m/m prior month.
• Exports were dynamic for capital and consumer goods; imports were up for capital goods and down over the month in other sectors.
• The surplus in oil has increased over the month and helped to cover rising imports (Ai related).

US: Existing home sales (May): 4.17M vs 4.07M expected (prior: 4.04M revised from 4.02M)

• Sales have rebounded over the month driven by higher sales of single-family houses.
• Prices have increased to 1.9% y/y (0.9% y/y prior month).
• Interesting to note that the share of first buyers have increased over the month.

US: Wholesale inventories (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Inventories have increased in all various segments; total sales were up by 2.0% m/m, driven higher by sales of computers.

Germany: Industrial production (April): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.7%)

• Manufacturing production was flat over the month after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Production has decreased for capital goods while it was up for intermediate and consumer goods over the month.

Germany: Trade Balance (April): 14.5bn EUR vs 15.9bn expected (prior: 14.7bn revised from 14.3bn)

• Exports were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month; imports were up by 1.2% m/m after 4.5% m/m prior month.
• Exports were the most dynamic to Europe non-eurozone (up by 3% m/m), while they were up by 1.8% m/m to US and down by 3.5% m/m to China.

Germany: Factory orders (April): -3.8% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 4.5% revised from 5%)

• Orders have reversed after the large rebound seen the prior month.
• Both foreign and domestic orders have contracted over the month, except domestic orders on consumers.
• By sector, orders were up for intermediate goods (metals) and non-durable consumer goods, but they have contracted for equipment and durable consumer goods.