每日宏观动态

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 29 vs 31 expected (prior: 32)

• Sentiment in housing has sharply declined and the index was back to its lowest levels seen in 2020 and 2012.
• Opinions on current sales, future sales and prospects have declined from the prior month.
• Rising long-term yields, rising construction costs and weakening consumer confidence have weighed down on thew outlook of the housing sector.

US: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.0%)

• Manufacturing production increased 0.3%, in line with consensus expectations.
• Strength in manufacturing production was broad-based across industries. The largest increases were seen in primary metals, machinery, and electrical equipment. Production in high-technology industries continued to expand at a robust pace, boosted by AI demand.
• These gains more than offset a decline in production of motor vehicles.

US: Import price index (Sept.): 1.1% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.7%)

• Ex petroleum: 0.8% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.8%)
• Import prices were up 8.1% in September (vs 8.2% expected) after 6.7% in August.

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct. 10): 199k vs 200k expected (prior: 198k revised from 197k)

• Continuing claims: 1710 k after 1714 k the prior week.

US: Empire manufacturing (Oct.): 25.5 vs 12 expected (prior: 7.6)

• Business confidence has sharply rebounded over the month.
• Opinions have improved on new orders, shipments and unfilled orders; prices paid have eased down while prices received have increased further over the month.
• The 6M index has decreased (from 29 to 21, a still high level); views decreased on new orders, but remained positive about shipments; prices paid, and prices received remained on the rise.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Oct.): 20.9 vs 28 expected (prior: 37.8)

• Business confidence has decreased in this region after a high in Aug.
• Opinions have decreased on new orders, shipments and employment; prices paid have eased but prices received remained on the rise.
• The 6-M index has also decreased, with lower new orders and shipments. Over 6-M, prices paid and received have decreased.
• While activity remained globally positive, but volatile across districts and on a monthly basis, prices remained globally a concern.

US: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1.4%)

• Sales were boosted by purchases (in value terms) of gasoline, up by 6.4% m/m (4% m/m prior month).
• Details offered a mix picture of sales: on the rise, were sectors such as electronics, furniture and restaurants, while sales have contracted for sport and building materials.
• Sales ex autos, building materials, energy and food were up only by 0.1% m/m after 1.2% m/m prior month (revised from 1.4% m/m).

US: PPI (Sept.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.4%)

• Prices have accelerated due to energy prices and services.
• Energy prices were up by 10.8% m/m after 4.5% m/m; food prices were up by 1.2% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month and services were up by 0.8% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) due to strong rises in costs of trade and warehouses). Core PPIs were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 5.6% y/y prior month to 6.3% y/y. Core PPIs were up to 5% y/y after 4.8% y/y.

US: Wholesale inventories (Aug.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

• Inventories have increased further for manufacturers and wholesalers over the month.

Eurozone: Industrial production (Aug.): -0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.1%)

• All sectors have contracted over the month, except capital goods (up by 0.4% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month) and durable consumer goods (up by 0.2% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month).

France: CPI (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly fall in prices; services were down by 1.4% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month) due to a fall in transport costs and communication.
• Energy prices were up by 3.9% m/m after 3.4% m/m prior month (21.3% y/y). Prices of clothes were also up by 3.8% m/m after 7.3% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.6% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Sept.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.7%)

• Import prices were up by 0.9% m/m after 1.9% m/m prior month, and up by 2.1% y/y (0.8% y/y prior month).
• Producer prices remained contained: up by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and down by 1.2% y/y (-1.3% y/y prior month).

UK: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.8% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

• Manufacturing production was up by a strong 1.2% m/m (1.0% m/m prior month); intermediate goods production was up by 1.4% m/m and investment up by 0.4% m/m.
• Intermediate goods production was pushed up by mining, up by 1.4% m/m.
• Separately, construction was down by 0.2% m/m (-0.5% m/m prior month) and services remained flat over the month after 0.5% m/m prior month.
• In parallel, monthly proxy for GDP was up by 0.1% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month; activity remained globally resilient even if the momentum passed from services to manufacturing over the month under review.

US: CPI (Sept.): 0.65% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Inflation was close to estimate, but its trend has accelerated further.
• Main part of the acceleration of inflation was coming from energy prices, up by 5.2% m/m after 2.1% m/m prior month. Prices were significantly higher for fuel oil (15.3% m/m) and gasoline (9.1% m/m).
• Good prices were up by 0.3% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month); prices have accelerated for household equipment, apparels, used cars (0.7% m/m) and new cars (0.4% m/m) and recreation goods.
• Services were up by 0.4% m/m (0.3% m/m the prior month), due to shelter (0.4% after 0.3% m/m) and several rises in transport (1.2% m/m after 2.3% m/m prior month) and medical services (0.3% m/m).
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.7% y/y, and core inflation from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y.
• While energy continues to fuel a strong monthly momentum in headline inflation, some sectors within core inflation have slightly increased over the month reflecting a solid demand; these data paved the way to another Fed rate hike, making next October meeting live.
• Note Fed governors have refrained in their recent communication being too hawkish, but these data could fuel another unanimous decision in Oct. or Dec. to hike further.

Germany: Wholesale price (Sept.): 1.9% m/m (prior: 0.9%)

• With higher energy prices, yearly trend has accelerated to 8.7% y/y from 6.8% y/y prior month.

Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Final prices confirmed the other strong monthly rise due to energy-transport, clothes, and housing. Recreation costs have decreased over the month.
• Yearly trend has been confirmed up to 5.0% y/y after 4.6% y/y prior month.

Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Final data were in line with first estimates; prices have increased over the month due to higher energy-electricity, transport costs, and prices of clothes and education. Recreation prices have decreased over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.4% y/y prior month to 4.1% y/y.

Sweden: CPI (Sept.): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices were confirmed up by a strong monthly rise: prices of clothes, housing, household goods, transport and communication have accelerated over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.7% y/y prior month to 1.5% y/y.

Sweden: Retail sales (Sept.): 1.1% m/m (prior: -0.4% revised from 0.7%)

• Consumption has accelerated after downward revisions to prior month data.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.3% y/y prior month to 3.5% y/y.