每日宏观动态

US: ADP Employment change (Oct.): 86k vs 67k expected (prior: 86k revised from 90k)

• Job creation remained stable over the month, after some adjustment in the prior month.
• Creations were more sustained over the month for small and large firms, while they decreased for medium-sized firms.
• Creations were sustained in services (82 k after 56 k the prior month), driven by a rebound in trade-transport sector.

 

US: Trade balance (Sept.): -105 bn USD vs -107.9 bn expected (prior: -105.7 bn revised from -105.6 bn)

• Trade deficit excluding oil increased to USD 116.4 bn after USD -114.9 bn the prior month.
• Exports were up by 1.9% m/m (1.6% m/m prior month): exports were dynamic for food, capital goods and consumer goods.
• Imports were up by 1.2% m/m (4.4% m/m prior month). Imports were concentrated and strong for capital goods and were also sustained for consumer goods.

 

US: Services PMI (Oct.): 56.1 vs 57.9 expected (prior: 58.8)

• Final confidence index came below the first estimate and pointed to a decline from the prior month.
• While indicators remained well above the 50 level, all major ones pointed to a decrease in opinions over the month: signals pointed to slower activity, orders and employment while costs and prices paid remained on the rise.

 

US: ISM Services (Oct.): 54.5 vs 54.8 expected (prior: 54.9)

• Sentiment came lower than the prior month and expectations.
• Details offered a mixed picture; opinions have decreased on activity and new orders but regained on backlog of orders, exports and employment.
• Prices paid have decreased from the prior month, but the index remained at high level.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Oct.): 4.0% y/y as expected (prior: 3.8%)

• Preliminary data pointed to accelerating inflation at renewed high levels.
• Prices were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.6% m/m; energy prices were up by 1.4% m/m (4% m/m, prior month), goods up by 0.6% m/m (2.1% m/m prior month), services up by 0.2% m/m (-0.7% m/m prior month), and food up by 0.4% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m but its yearly trend remained stable at 2.5% y/y.

 

Eurozone: Services PMI (Oct.): 51.4 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 53)

• Final data have decreased more than initially expected over the month. New orders have decreased, the related index passing below the 50 level at 49.8 after 52.4 prior month.
• Except Italy (index up from 51.7 to 52, with rising new business), other major countries faced declining sentiment; the largest fall was in France, index down from 51.2 to 46.2 (48.4 in first estimate), with falling new orders (44.8 after 49.7 prior month.
• The German index has slightly decreased from 52.9 to 52.5, and new orders were down below 50 (at 49.6 after 52.3); the Spanish index has decreased (from 58.3 to 57.2), but it remained on high level.
• Activity in services has decreased, with a large fall in France; employment has decreased and prices have also declined for the first time since July.

 

UK: Services PMI (Oct.): 52.8 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Final PMI pointed to a rise from the prior month but at a slower pace than initially estimated.
• Sentiment on new orders has rebounded but less than first estimate (from 50.3 to 52.9).
• Activity was stronger thanks to domestic demand while new exports orders were lower.
• Employment has increased over the month; costs have sharply increased but selling prices have increased at a slower pace due to intense competition.

 

Sweden: Riksbank has increased key rates by 25 bp to 2.0% as expected

• The door remained open to another rate hike depending on future activity and inflation.
• Financial conditions have tightened but remained accommodative according to the bank.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Sept.): 7523k vs 7164k expected (prior: 7190k revised from 7079k)

• Demand for jobs has strongly rebounded and prior month data were revised higher.
• Demand has increased particularly for trade-transport (1283 k) and professional business (1310 k), two cyclical sectors.
• Demand came lower over the month but remained high for education-health (1614 k) and leisure-hospitality (779 k).
• Demand for labor has also increased in public sector: 880 k after 782 k the prior month.
• Layoffs have decreased over the month and Quits have increased but pointing to more confidence in finding new jobs.

 

US: Factory orders (Sept.): 1.8% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were up by 0.6% m/m after 1.5% m/m the prior month.
• Shipments were up by 1.3% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month) and inventories were up by 0.4% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month).

 

Switzerland: CPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0%)

• Prices of energy have increased by 3.5% m/m after 2.3% m/m; prices of goods were up by 0.8% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month, fueled by higher prices of clothes (3.7% m/m); services were down by 0.2% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month. Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m (0% prior month).
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 1.5% y/y after 1.0% y/y prior month, and core inflation remained stable at 0.5% y/y.

 

Turkey: CPI (Oct.): 2.58% m/m vs 2.40% expected (prior: 1.84%)

• Inflation remained sustained over the month; prices have accelerated further for food, clothes, utility, transport and communication.
• Yearly trend has slightly regained to 29.77% y/y after 29.73% y/y the prior month; core inflation has declined from 28.70% y/y prior month to 28.28% y/y.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 54.9 vs 56 expected (prior: 55.9)

• Final business sentiment came lower than the first estimate.
• Opinions have decreased on production from the prior month, and new orders were lower but still above the 50 marks. Domestic demand and export sales were firm.
• Delivery time has increased and disruption in several sectors was mentioned.
• Costs have strongly regained, due to energy, fuel, transport and metal prices. Firms have increased their selling prices in parallel.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (Oct.): 55.5 vs 54.5 expected (prior: 54.5)

• ISM manufacturing has increased over the month.
• Views were more positive on production, new exports, new orders and on inventories.
• Opinions have decreased on employment and also slightly on prices paid but its related index remained at a high level.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 52.7 vs 52.4 expected (prior: 52.9)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased from the prior month, but less than in the first estimate (52.4). New orders have decreased (from 52.5 to 51.8) but less than initially estimated.
• Opinions have decreased on current production and new orders, but exports have surged and employment has improved.
• Costs have increased sharply (energy, fuel, transport) and disruption in delivery has been high. Selling prices have increased further.
• By country, the PMI manufacturing index has fallen in France (from 50.6 to 49.5) and in Italy (from 50.4 to 49.4). It has increased in Spain (from 51 to 52.2) and in Germany (54.2 after 53.9).

 

Germany: Retail sales (Sept.): -2.0% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1.3%)

• After a rebound the prior month, sales have sharply declined over the month. The decline was broad-based across sectors, except for fuel. The largest fall was seen in IT goods and recreation sector.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 50 vs 49.4 expected (prior: 49)

• Business sentiment has improved over the month; new orders have increased to 48.4 from 46.4 the prior month but remained below the 50 mark.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 60.5 (prior: 58.5 revised from 58.1)

• Business opinions have surged over the month, with a strong rise in production; views have also improved on employment.
• Opinions have marginally decreased on new orders and exports over the month.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 56.7 vs 55.4 expected (prior: 55.3)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month; opinions have strongly increased on production and improved on new orders. Delivery time has increased while employment has decreased over the month.
• Prices have slightly increased further.
• Separately, the PMI services has marginally increased from 59.8 to 59.9. Views have slightly improved on activity and employment while they decreased for new orders and selling prices.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 52.8 as expected (prior: 51.9)

• Business sentiment has increased further and was in line with first estimate; opinions on new orders have increased less than initially estimated (51.8 from 52.1 and 51.2 prior month).
• Production has increased further and also new orders, favored by investment good sector.
• Exports have also broadly rebounded. Employment remained stable except in few sectors. Disruption have increased further related to shipping, port congestion and metal shortages.
• Costs have strongly increased over the month, and part of this rise was passed through to final clients.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 47.3 (prior: 47.9)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; views on new orders have decreased from 46.9 prior month to 46.3.

US: Employment cost index (Q3-26): 0.8% q/q as expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Wages were up by 0.7% q after 0.9% q in Q2. Benefits were up by 0.9%q after 1.0%q in Q2.
• Labor costs remained contained over the past quarters.

 

US: Chicago PMI (Oct.): 55.3 vs 56 expected (prior: 58.8)

• Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month, but the index remained high. Among components, prices paid remained on the rise.

 

France: GDP (Q3-26): -0.1% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

• GDP contracted over the quarter; details offered a mixed picture, as the fall was mainly driven by negative net trade contribution and also falling investment, particularly in housing.
• Consumption was up by 0.4%q (0.2%q in Q2) driven by autos and services (personal services, tourism). Public consumption remained sustained, up by 0.3%q after 0.4%q in Q2.
• Investment has decreased for housing (-1.3%), firms (-0.4%q) and also public sector (-0.3%q). Nevertheless, investment in equipment (0.8%q) and in services (information-communication +2.1%q) remained strong.
• Inventories were up over the quarter, adding 0.4 pp to GDP change; exports were down by 1.7%q and imports up by 0.1%q, leading to a large drag from net exports (-0.6 pp to GDP growth).
• Besides negative surprise of GDP change over the quarter, domestic demand ex-inventories remained stable up by 0.1% q in Q3 after 0.1% q in Q2.

 

France: Consumer spending (Sept.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.5%)

• Spending has decreased over the month in all sectors except fuel and oil purchases.
• The fall was the most significant over the month for durable goods (furniture down, autos up) and clothes.

 

France: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Preliminary data pointed to a new rise in energy prices (1.9% m/m after 3.9% m/m prior month); prices of goods were up by 0.4% m/m (-1.4% m/m prior month) and services up by 0.2% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.8% y/y.

 

France: Producer Prices (Sept.): 1.7% m/m (prior: 1%)

• Yearly trend has accelerated from 4.9% y/y prior month to 6.8% y/y.

 

Spain: GDP (Q3-26): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Preliminary data pointed to a still sustained growth.
• Public and private consumption (0.6% q after 1.1%q in Q2) remained firm over the quarter; investment has slowed down (0.1%q after 1.1% in Q2), but R&D remained strong up by 0.8%q after 2.3% q in Q2.

 

Spain: CPI (Oct.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Preliminary data pointed out the still sustained monthly rise in prices, probably due to energy (no details offered).
• Yearly trend remained quite stable, up by 4.9% y/y after 5.0% y/y prior month.

 

Poland: CPI (Oct.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Preliminary data have shown a large monthly fall in energy prices, due to falling VAT and excise duties for 3 months.
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.1% y/y prior month to 3.5% y/y.

 

Germany: GDP (Q3-26): 0.2% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data were more positive than estimated. No details were available, but it seemed consumption was a support to growth while exports and capex moderated.
• GDP was up by 1.3% y/y after 1.0% y/y in Q2.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6.4% as expected (prior: 6.4%)

• Unemployed has increased by 4 k after 12 k the prior month.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 2.0% (prior: 2.0%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month; the unemployment ratio remained stable.

 

Switzerland: KOF (Oct.): 107.6 vs 108.1 expected (prior: 109.1)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month, after high level the prior month. The index remained at high level.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (Oct.): 0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.2%)

• Prices have declined from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 0.5% y/y.
• Weaker consumer sentiment and rising long-term interest rates have weighed down on demand.

 

Eurozone: GDP (Q3-26): 0.4% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Preliminary data pointed to a still sustained growth over the quarter; details by sector were not available.
• Data by country have shown a sustained growth in Ireland (5.5%q) and in Netherland and Spain up by 0.6%q. Only France among the major countries have disappointed (-0.1%q). Ex Ireland, GDP was probably up around 0.2%q.
• Eurozone GDP was up by 1.3% y/y after 1.2% y/y the prior quarter, a growth which is slightly above its current potential.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 6.5% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.5% revised from 6.4%)

• Unemployment remained stable over the month.

 

Italy: GDP (Q3-26): 0% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• First estimate of GDP pointed to flat growth; no details were available, but exports were probably a drag on the activity, while domestic demand stabilized.

 

Italy: CPI (Oct.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Preliminary data pointed to a sustained monthly rise in prices.
• The rise was driven by higher prices of energy-electricity (lower tax cuts), housing, food, and communication.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 5.6% y/y after 4.2% y/y prior month.

 

Germany: CPI (Oct.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Preliminary data pointed to a pause in inflation due to renewed temporary tax cuts on fuel. No details by sector are available.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.3% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.