每日宏观动态

Eurozone: GDP (2Q T): 0.6% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• Eurozone growth in the second quarter came in stronger than expected on the third estimate, flattered by a hefty upward revision to Ireland’s figures driven by multinationals. Strip out Ireland’s volatility, and GDP still rose an estimated 0.27%, a solid showing given the drag from the energy shock.
• The release also showed compensation per employee easing to 3.3% y/y, down from 3.5% in Q1. That cooling in wage growth points to waning second‑round inflation pressures and argues for less monetary tightening after this week’s hike.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Aug.): 162k vs 55k expected (prior: 21k revised from -23k)

• Job creations were highly volatile once again and prior month data (July) were revised up; June payrolls were also revised up, from 20 k to final 31 k jobs.
• The rebound was mainly driven by services (86 k after 42 k prior month); this came from a rebound in leisure-hospitality (62 k after -21 k), government (35 k after -50k) and in education-health (29 k after 12 k) sectors. These sectors were traditionally less cyclical sectors than the others.
• Business services were up by 10 k after 15 k prior month; trade-transport creations have slowed down from 34 k prior month to 16 k; information (-23 k after 5k) and finance (-11k after -11 k) sectors have both contracted: interesting to note that these sectors are the largest users of AI among other sectors.
• Job creations were positive in manufacturing (16 k) and construction (22 k) sectors over the month.
• Wage growth remained limited, up by 0.3% m/m and by 3.1% y/y (3.2% y/y prior month).
• Labor force participation has increased over the month; unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1% as expected.
• While this large volatility and changes at sector level is difficult to link with underlying macro trend, these data confirmed the only concern for the Fed is inflation and not labor; this put more weigh on next Aug. CPI release.

Eurozone: Retail sales (July): -0.6% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from -0.3%)

• Sales have fallen more than expected over the month.
• Non-food and auto fuel sales were sharply down over the month. The fall was mainly driven by contracting monthly sales in Spain and Germany.

Germany: Factory orders (July): 2.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 3.7% revised from 3.1%)

• Orders remained on a strong monthly rebound trend. Domestic orders were up by 9% m/m (9% m/m also prior month), while foreign orders were down by 2.1% m/m.
• Orders have accelerated further for intermediate and capital goods while they were down for consumer goods.

US: Trade balance (July): -88.6 bn USD vs -90.2 bn expected (prior: -71.2 bn revised from -73.3 bn)

• Trade deficit excluding oil has increased from USD 83 bn the prior month to USD -98.2 bn.
• Exports were down by 2.1% m/m after -0.8% m/m the prior month; exports of consumer goods have increased but those of industrial goods have sharply declined.
• Imports were up by 2.8% m/m (-1.8% m/m prior month); this rebound was mainly due to purchases of capital goods.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-26): 1.4% q/q as expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Output was up by 1.7%q in Q2 after 1.5% in Q1. Total wages were up by 2.6%q (2.1% in Q1) and unit labor costs were up by 1.2%q after 1.3%q in Q1.

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 29): 206k vs 205k expected (prior: 204k revised from 203k)

• Continuing claims: 1779 k after 1771 k the prior week.

US: Services PMI (Aug.): 56.5 vs 56.8 expected (prior: 54.6)

• Final data has confirmed the rebound from the prior month, but at a slower pace than expected.
• Opinions have improved further on activity, driven by a rebound in exports and firmer domestic demand; views on employment were more positive.
• Prices and costs have moderated but remained high.

US: ISM Services (Aug.): 55.4 vs 54.1 expected (prior: 54.1)

• Confidence in services has rebounded more than expected over the month; the improvement was broad-based across components.
• Opinions have rebounded on activity, new orders, exports and also employment.
• Prices paid have also strongly rebounded in parallel.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Aug.): 51.6 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 51.7)

• Final sentiment in services has just marginally decreased from the prior month, but the index remained at high level.
• PMI has increased further in Italy (index at 55.2 from 52.5), decreased from high level in Spain (from 58.3 to 57.8) and was quite stable in Germany (49.7 after 49.8) but decreased in France (from 49.6 to 48).
• Activity was still sustained in global domestic demand but marginally lower on exports.
• Employment remained on a positive trend.
• Cost and prices remained on the rise.

Eurozone: PPI (July): 1.6% m/m vs 1.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Prices have rebounded due to energy prices up by 5.6% m/m after -1.3% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 4.6% y/y prior month to 5.8% y/y.

Switzerland: CPI (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Monthly prices have rebounded due mainly to energy (4.1% m/m vs -0.3% m/m prior month) and to goods (clothes) up by 1% m/m after -0.7% m/m the prior month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has strongly rebounded to 0.8% y/y from 0.4% y/y the prior month and for core inflation from 0.5% to 0.7% y/y.

Switzerland: GDP (Q2-26): 1.9% q/q vs 1.7% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)

• Consumption was up by 0.3%q (0.1% in Q1); capex was up by 0.8% q (-1.2% in Q1) and construction up by 0.7%q (0.2%q in Q1).
• Exports were down by 1.5% q and imports down by 0.8% q; net trade was a drag on GDP compared to Q1.

UK: Services PMI (Aug.): 52.5 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 52.1)

• Final confidence in services has rebounded less than initially estimated. Activity was mainly driven by domestic demand while exports have decreased over the month.
• New business index was just slightly above 50, marginally decreasing from the prior month; opinions have decreased on employment.
• Costs and prices have increased over the month.

Turkey: CPI (Aug.): 1.84% m/m vs 1.92% expected (prior: 1.78%)

• Monthly changes were lower than expected but driven by large rises in energy-transport and education.
• Yearly trend has declined from 31.75% y/y prior month to 31.51% y/y. Core inflation was up by 30% y/y after 29.9% y/y prior month.

US: ADP Employment change (Aug): 38k vs 47k expected (prior: 44k)

• Private employers added jobs more slowly than in the spring, but the labor market remains steady. Hiring was led by education and health services, with leisure and hospitality also contributing. Manufacturing, by contrast, shed jobs.
• The figures suggest a balanced labor market balance, giving the Federal Reserve room to focus on inflation.

US: Factory orders (Jul): 0.9% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

• US factory orders snapped back, lifted by a 2.3% rise in transportation equipment, driven largely by a 12.7% surge in civilian aircraft and parts.
• Strip out transportation and orders still climbed 0.6%; exclude defense and they rose a stronger 1.0%.