每日宏观动态

US: Trade balance (May): -77.6 bn USD vs -78.4 bn expected (prior: -54.6 bn revised from -55.9 bn)

• Imports: +3.3% m/m vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.0%)
• Exports: -3.2% vs -3.5% expected (prior: 3.0% revised from 2.6%)
• As a result of higher imports and lower exports, the US trade deficit widened in May to the most since March 2025 even though oil exports continued to increase.

Germany: Industrial production (May): 0.9% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)

• IP y/y: 0.0% vs -0.6% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.5%)
• Production between March and May rose by 0.1% despite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The automotive industry led the way in May with production up 3.6% m/m while manufacturing of industrial machinery rose 1.3%.
• The German industry continues to suffer from high energy prices and the fierce Chinese competition in several key export markets; in terms of volume, production in May was 8% below the monthly average for 2021.

US: ISM Services (Jun): 54.0 as expected (prior: 54.5)

• Services confidence eased but stayed in expansion while prices paid dipped, mirroring cheaper oil. New orders and activity downshifted, pointing to steadier, still solid, demand.
• Hiring surged at the fastest pace since 2024, likely a World Cup boost, while inventories thinned to their second-lowest since October 2025, a sign the early-year buy‑ahead spree is fading.

Eurozone: PPI (May): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)

• Producer prices rose as expected, but the annual rate quickened to 5.9% from 5.0%, nudging past the 5.7% consensus.
• The upward push came from intermediate goods, up 1.4% on the month, while energy prices fell 1.0%, tempering the overall gain.

Eurozone: Retail sales (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.4%)

• Retail sales rebounded from last month reflecting a 0.4% rise in non-fuel sales while fuel sales dropped by 0.5%.

Germany: Factory orders (May): 1.9% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: -3.2% revised from -3.8%)

• Germany’s factory orders bounced back in May, led by transport equipment, especially military kit, likely tied to the country’s armed-forces upgrade.
• Stripping out bulky one-off deals, orders still rose a solid 1% on the month, according to Destatis.
• The smoother three-month measure tells a split story. Overall orders in March-May declined 0.2%; exclude large-scale contracts, and they were up a robust 4.1%.

Eurozone: Services PMI (June F.): 49.4 vs 48.9 expected (prior: 47.7)

• Sentiment in the service sector was revised up from the flash estimate and came back close to the March's level (50.2).
• The index remained below 50 in France (46.8) and in Germany (48.6) while it surged to 54.2 from 50.1 in Spain and edged marginally higher in Italy to 50.8.

France: Industrial production (May): -0.1% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• IP y/y: 3.2% vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.9%)
• Manufacturing production declined more meaningfully over the month, down 1.0% m/m, but is still up 2.5% over the year.

Spain: Industrial production (May): 1.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.4%)

• Industrial production is up 0.8% y/y.

Italy: Retail sales (May): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.0%)

• Y/y: 2.2% vs 1.7% expected (prior: 1.7%)

UK: Services PMI (June F.): 48.8 as expected (prior: 49.3)

• Lowest level since Jan. 2023 and second consecutive month of contraction.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Jun): 57k vs 113k expected (prior: 129k revised from 172k)

• America’s job market cooled down in June. Payrolls grew by fewer positions than expected, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% from 4.3%, a decline driven by a shrinking labour force rather than a hiring surge.
• The politically sensitive manufacturing sector eked out a 3,000-job gain, while leisure and hospitality shed 61k positions as seasonal hiring came in weaker than usual. Also, the two‑month net revisions came in at -73k, taking the gloss off the previous months.
• Wage growth was benign. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month, in line with forecasts, while the annual pace ticked up from 3.4% to 3.5%.
• After three months of robust hiring, June’s step-down looks more like normalization than alarm. Initial jobless claims (215k versus 218k expected) underscore a still-sturdy labour market that, crucially for the Federal Reserve, shows little sign of overheating.

US: Factory orders (May): -1.3% m/m vs -2.0% expected (prior: 5.3% revised from 4.8%)

• Factory orders fell by less than expected in May. Stripping out transportation, orders looked notably firmer, rising 1.9%—, well above the 1.0% consensus and an acceleration from April’s 1.3%.

Switzerland: CPI (Jun): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Swiss inflation eased in June, as expected, bringing the second-quarter average to 0.6% year on year, in line with the SNB’s Q2 projection.
• Softer oil prices pulled down imported inflation, both via petroleum products and other traded goods and services.
• Domestic inflation also edged lower, underscoring that any broadening of price pressures remains limited. Looking ahead, the SNB is likely to stay on hold through 2026.