每日宏观动态
US Q1-26 GDP revised lower; US core PCE in line with expectations
US: Initial jobless claims (May 23): 215k vs 211k expected (prior: 210k revised from 209k)
- Continuing claims: 1786 k after 1771 k the prior week.
US: GDP (Q1-26): 1.6% q/q vs 2.0% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- GDP growth was revised lower in the second estimate due to slightly lower consumption and larger fall of inventories over the quarter.
- Consumption was up by 1.4 % q/q (1.6% q/q in first estimate) after 1.9% q/q in Q4: purchases of goods were moderate, up by 0.4% q/q (0.3% in Q4-25) and services up by 1.8% q/q vs 2.4% in first estimate and 2.7% in Q4-25.
- Investment remained sustained: equipment up by 17.2 % q/q (4.3% q/q in Q4-25), R&D up by 11.6% q/q (5.4% q/q in Q4); investment in structure was down by 5.4% q/q after -6.5% q/q in Q4, and residential down by 6.2% q/q after -1.7% q/q in Q4-25.
- Exports and imports have strongly rebounded in Q1, but net exports contribution was negative (-1.25 pp) and inventories have decreased more than in the first estimate and in Q4-25.
- Private domestic demand was slightly revised down to 2.4% q/q from the first estimate of 2.5% and after 1.8% q/q in Q4-25.
- Despite minor revisions to various sectors, US growth remained driven by a strong investment cycle and still consumption which was just below 2% trend.
US: Personal income (April): 0% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.6%)
- Wage growth was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month; disposable income was down by 0.1% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
- Saving ratio has decreased from 3.2% to 2.6%.
US: Personal spending (April): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)
- Spending remained sustained over the month and prior month was slightly revised up.
- Purchases of goods were up by 0.6% m/m and services up by 0.4% m/m.
US: Core PCE deflator (April): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Yearly trend was up by 3.3% y/y, as expected, after 3.2% y/y the prior month.
US: Durable goods orders (April): 7.9% m/m vs 4.0% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 0.8%)
- Orders were boosted by defense and aircraft orders; orders for capital goods non-defense and ex aircraft (core orders) were down by 1.1% m/m after 3.9% m/m the prior month.
- Orders were sustained for metals and electronic equipment.
- Shipments were up by 0.5% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month) and shipments for core orders were up by 0.4% m/m (1.3% m/m prior month).
- Inventories were up by 0.3% m/m (the same as prior month) and up by 0.2% m/m for core orders.
US: New home sales (April): 622k vs 660k expected (prior: 663k revised from 682k)
- Sales have fallen over the month for all except one district (West district) over 4 districts.
- Inventories have increased over the month, but average prices were up by 0.7% m/m.
France: Producer Prices (April): -2.1% m/m (prior: 1.9% revised from 2.0%)
- Electricity prices have sharply declined while gas prices remained on rising trend. Manufacturing good prices were up by 0.7% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month).
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 2.1% y/y after 0% y/y the prior month.
Eurozone: Industrial confidence (May): -8 as expected (prior: -7.7)
- Business sentiment has slightly declined from the prior month.
- Opinions were more negative on past and future production; they were less negative than prior month on new orders, employment and selling prices were slightly lower than prior month; views have improved on inventories.
Eurozone: Services confidence (May): 2.2 vs 0.3 expected (prior: 1.4 revised from 0.9)
- Sentiment on services has rebounded, contrary to latest flash PMI services.
- Views have decreased on current demand but improved with more positive future demand; opinions were also less negative on employment and selling prices were seen slightly lower than prior month.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (May): -19 as expected (prior: -20.6)
- Consumer confidence was less negative than the prior month but remained low.
- Opinions were less negative than prior month on financial conditions, inflation, economic conditions, and major purchases.
- Nevertheless, worries have increased about future unemployment.
Italy: Consumer confidence (May): 93.4 vs 90 expected (prior: 90.8)
- Sentiment has recovered due to improving views on economic and financial situation.
Italy: Manufacturing confidence (May): 87.9 vs 87.6 expected (prior: 87.9)
- Sentiment remained stable in the manufacturing, while it weakened in construction and services excluding retail sector.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (April): 0.8% y/y vs 3.6% expected (prior: 4.1%)
- Sales were down by 1.5% m/m (1.2% m/m the prior month); contraction was driven by falling gasoline purchases, but major other sectors have also contracted over the month, except internet sales.
Norway: GDP Mainland (Q1-26): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)
- Q1 GDP came lower than expected and Q4-25 GDP data were revised lower.
- Consumption has contracted by 1.1 %q (1.3%q in Q4-25), driven by falling purchases of autos while services remained on a modest growth trend.
- Capex has decreased by 7.2%q after 5%q in the prior quarter.
- Public consumption was sustained, as seen in Q4-25. Inventories contribution was positive over the quarter while net trade contribution has decreased.
Sweden: Consumer confidence (May): 92.4 (prior: 91.7 revised from 91.5)
- Consumer sentiment has improved on global economy and personal situation.
Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (May): 100.5 (prior: 100)
- Business sentiment has improved in manufacturing and trade sectors but decreased in construction.
US Business confidence (Richmond Fed) on rebound
US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (May): 13 vs 4 expected (prior: 3)
- The business confidence index has rebounded to high level, close to the highs seen in 2021.
- Sentiment has improved on both current conditions and 6M activity.
- Opinions have improved about shipments, new orders, and capex. Prices paid and received have declined from the prior month.
France: Consumer confidence (May): 82 vs 83 expected (prior: 84)
- Consumer confidence has decreased more than expected over the month. The index was back and come closer to the low levels seen in 2022-2023 (index at 80).
- Sentiment has decreased on financial situation and future economy while preference for saving has increased.
US consumer confidence (Conference Board) came better than expected
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (March): 0.83% y/y vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.92% revised from 0.9%)
- Prices were down by 0.16% m/m after -0.05% m/m the prior month.
- Prices in 10 cities were down on yearly trend while only 4 cities offered prices up above 2% y/y.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (May): 93.1 vs 92 expected (prior: 93.8 revised from 92.8)
- Consumer confidence has eroded from the prior month, but data were revised up.
- Sentiment has decreased on current conditions (index down from 124.4 to 121.2) while expectations have regained (index at 74.4 after 73.4 prior month).
- On current conditions, labor is seen in a fragile stabilization; business conditions have also stabilized from the prior month.
- Willingness to buy has decreased for autos and houses form the prior month, while purchases of big appliances were on the rise from the prior month.
- The 12M inflation expectations remained stable at 6.2%y/y.
- The Conference Board consumer index was better than the declining University of Michigan confidence index; nevertheless, some fragilities exist, notably on labor, while views on future economy come slightly more positive than in the Michigan index.
Spain: PPI (April): 1.7% m/m (prior: 6.2% revised from 6.5%)
- Energy prices were up by 2.4% m/m; upside pressures were also seen over the month on prices of intermediate and manufacturing goods, notably on chemicals.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 8.3% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month.
Poland: Unemployment rate (April): 6% as expected (prior: 6.1%)
- Unemployed has decreased over the month.
Consumer confidence: sharp fall in the US, less depressed in Germany and the UK
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (May): 44.8 vs 48.2 expected (prior: 49.8)
- Final consumer confidence was more negative than in first estimate and pointed to a new sharp fall on confidence.
- Opinions on current conditions have strongly deteriorated (index at 45.8 after 52.5 prior moth) and expectations have also fallen (index at 44.1 after 48.1).
- Views have deteriorated on financial conditions on lower income and higher prices. Business expectations have deteriorated, and fears of rising unemployment have increased. Disapproval about the government action has increased.
- Willingness to buy large items has strongly decreased from the prior month.
- 12M inflation expectations have increased from 4.7% prior month to 4.8% y/y and inflation at 5-10y has rebounded from 3.5% y/y to 3.9% y/y.
France: Industrial production (May): 94% m/m as expected (prior: 94%)
- Business sentiment in manufacturing has increased from 100 the prior month to 102.
- Opinions were slightly more positive on past production and less negative on orders.
- Prices were on the rise.
- In parallel, index on services has decreased (from 94 prior month to 93), with deteriorating outlook and negative views on past activity.
Germany: GFK consumer confidence (June): -29.8 vs -34 expected (prior: -33.1 revised from -33.3)
- Consumer confidence has slightly regained from depressed levels.
- Opinions were less negative than prior month about outlook and income.
Germany: IFO (May): 84.9 vs 84.2 expected (prior: 84.5 revised from 84.4)
- Business sentiment has slightly improved from very low level.
- Opinions have improved about current conditions (index at 86.1 after 85.4 prior month) and expectations have slightly improved (index at 83.8 after 83.5 prior month).
- By sector, views on manufacturing and services were just less depressed than the prior month.
- Views from IFO survey were less negative than the latest flash PMI manufacturing down from 51.4 to 49.9.
Germany: GDP (Q1-26): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Second estimate was in line with the first estimate and offered more details at sector level.
- Consumption was flat in Q1 (0.6% q in Q4-25) and public consumption was up by 1.1 %q (1.5% in Q4-25).
- Investment was sharply down, contracting by 1.2%q after +2.5%q in Q4-25.
- Exports have strongly rebounded, up by 3.3%q after -1.5%q in Q4.
- After resilient growth in Q1, downside risks weigh on Q2 GDP.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (May): -23 vs -28 expected (prior: -25)
- Opinions were less negative than the prior month about personal financial situation and economic outlook.
- Nevertheless, willingness to buy items has decreased further.
UK: Retail sales (April): -1.3% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)
- Sales have strongly contracted over the month; ex-fuels sales were down by 0.4% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
- Within sectors, only food sales were positive (volume terms) and other sectors negative, particularly clothes (-2.4% m/m).
Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (May): 101 (prior: 98.6)
May PMI business sentiment: globally weaker in services but still resilient in manufacturing in the US and UK
US: Initial jobless claims (May 16): 209k vs 210k expected (prior: 212k revised from 211k)
- Continuing claims: 1782 k after 1776 k the prior week.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): -0.4 vs 17.8 expected (prior: 26.7)
- Business sentiment on current situation has collapsed while the 6-month index has rebounded from already high level.
- Sentiment has pointed to short-term difficulties but a still positive future outlook.
- On current situation, opinions have decreased on new orders, shipments while inventories were on the rise; prices paid have slightly eased.
- The 6-month index offered a more positive outlook, with opinions increasing on new orders, shipments but also prices paid; employment remained on lower trend.
US: Manufacturing PMI (May): 55.3 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 54.5)
- Flash estimates have pointed to new acceleration in business sentiment over the month.
- While opinions have moderated on new orders, production was higher but mainly driven by domestic demand and ongoing inventory rebuilding. Supply delivery has increased further with disruption in trade and production. Employment has regained to face higher production.
- Costs and prices have again sharply increased over the month.
US: Services PMI (May): 50.9 vs 51.2 expected (prior: 51)
- Flash estimate pointed to weakness in services: demand was subdued due to high prices, rising uncertainty and falling exports. Opinions have decreased on employment.
- Costs and prices remained on a sharp rising trend.
US: Housing starts (April): 1465k vs 1410k expected (prior: 1507k revised from 1502k)
- Building permits were up to 1442 k after 1363 k the prior month.
- Single houses housing starts have weakened over the month after a strong rebound the prior month; on the opposite, multi-family houses have rebounded on both housing starts and building permits.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (May): 51.4 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 52.2)
- Flash estimate has pointed to weaker business sentiment.
- Opinions have decreased on new orders, with related index passing below 50, in parallel with lower production, exports and another round of lower employment.
- Activity suffered from severe supply chain disruption while stock rebuilding has continued.
- Input costs have rebounded further and selling prices were again on the rise.
- French index has passed below 50 at 48.9 after 52.9 prior month, as well as the German index declined from 51.4 to 49.9.
Eurozone: Services PMI (May): 46.4 vs 47.8 expected (prior: 47.6)
- Sentiment in services has decreased further according to flash estimate.
- The index has collapsed in France (42.9 after 46.5 prior month) but regained in Germany (47.8 after 46.9).
- Views have decreased on global activity, foreign demand and employment.
- Input costs have increased sharply and selling prices were on the rise.
- The combined service-manufacturing index has decreased from 48.8 prior month to 47.5, pointing to downside risks on activity in Q2.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (May): 53.7 vs 53 expected (prior: 53.7)
- Flash estimate pointed to a stable and still high business sentiment.
- Opinions on new orders have decreased but the index remained above 50 at 51.9. Production was still sustained with front-loading activity ahead of disruption in production and trade due to the war in Middle East.
- Costs and input prices remained on the rise as well as selling prices.
UK: Services PMI (May): 47.9 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 52.7)
- Sentiment on services has collapsed over the month according to flash estimate.
- Demand has decreased on lower investment sentiment, delayed consumption (transport-leisure) and rising domestic political uncertainty.
- Costs and selling prices have increased but at a slightly slower pace than the prior month.
Poland: Industrial production (April): -7.4% m/m vs -7.9% expected (prior: 15.2% revised from 17.2%)
- Industrial activity has reversed after a sharp rebound the prior month; all major sectors were down over the month.
- Yearly trend has slowed down to 3.1% y/y after 7.5% y/y prior month, with weak trend in manufacturing.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (April): 8.5% vs 8.8% expected (prior: 9.2%)
- Unemployed has decreased over the month and also labor force.
Switzerland: M3 (April): 4.3% y/y (prior: 4.5% revised from 4.4%)
- M1 growth has slowed down further from 17% y/y prior month to 14.3% y/y; M2 was also on a slowdown, from 119% y/y to 10% y/y.
- Time deposits continued to contract while growth in saving deposits has continued to slow down.