每日宏观动态

US: Housing starts (Jul): 1239k vs 1345k expected (prior: 1415k revised from 1427k)

• Elevated mortgage rates continue to hobble the US housing market: housing starts slid 12.4% in July across both single- and multi-family segments. Even so, permits rose 5%, the strongest since February, suggesting a pipeline that may revive activity in coming months.
• Pending home sales of previously owned homes also dropped in July (-2.3%).

US: Industrial production (Jul): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• US industrial production edged up 0.2% in July, shy of the 0.3% forecast, after an upwardly revised 0.3% in June. Manufacturing, roughly 78% of the total, matched expectations with a 0.2% gain, easing from June’s 0.3%.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jun): 4.9% vs 4.8% expected (prior: 4.9%)

• UK's jobs market is losing steam. Employment fell by 13k in July, against expectations of no change, a sign that labour demand remains weak. The jobless rate held at 4.9% in June, defying forecasts of a dip to 4.8%.
• The figures come with caveats: survey response rates have slipped, raising the risk of measurement noise in the May-June prints.
• Wage pressures continue to ease. Private-sector regular pay, the Bank of England’s preferred gauge, slowed to 2.8% in the three months to June from 2.9%, broadly in line with the Bank’s projections.
• Taken together, softer hiring and contained pay growth bolster the case for the BoE to keep rates on hold for now.

Germany: Zew (Aug): 34.2 vs 30.0 expected (prior: 26.3)

• Germany’s mood is perking up, helped by federal infrastructure spending, according to the ZEW’s president.
• The improvement follows a stronger‑than‑expected second‑quarter GDP print and underscores the economy’s resilience despite the oil‑price shock.
• Even so, the current‑conditions index has only clawed back from very low levels and remains weak by historical standards.

US: NAHB housing market index (Aug.): 35 vs 33 expected (prior: 34)

• Very modest improvement in homebuilder sentiment in August, but it remains depressed as high construction and borrowing costs continue to be significant headwinds for the housing market.
• Measures of both future sales expectations and prospective buyer traffic were unchanged from the prior month.

US: Empire manufacturing (Aug.): 20.6 vs 10.0 expected (prior: 15.6)

• Manufacturing sentiment in the New York area rose to its highest level since December 2021.
• The composition of the report was more mixed. The new orders, shipments, and employment components all slightly weakened, but all three remains at healthy levels. The prices paid index edged higher.
• Firms' optimism remains elevated for the next 6 months, which bodes well for manufacturing activity by the end of the year.

US: Retail sales (Jul): -0.6% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• After a summer splurge, American consumers hit pause. July retail sales slipped as a softer jobs market, the fading boost from the now-finished FIFA World Cup, and the waning impact of one-off tax refunds weighed on spending. A payback effect after June’s Amazon Prime Day also accentuated the drop.
• The drop wasn't broad-based as only five of the report’s 13 categories declined, led by a 2.2% fall at non-store retailers such as Amazon. Still, there were signs of resilience: receipts at restaurants and bars, the report’s lone services category and a bellwether of discretionary outlays, rose 0.5%, suggesting household demand remains solid.
• Also, once you exclude auto (-1.8%) and gas (-0.9%), retails sales dropped by a more modest 0.2%. Still, the control group, which feed into calculation of goods spending for GDP, fell 0.4%, the most since the start of 2025.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug P): 51.0 vs 55.0 expected (prior: 55.2)

• US consumer sentiment cooled in August as households fretted over deteriorating business conditions and sticky inflation. The survey was conducted from July 28th to August 10th, a period when average gasoline prices hovered above $4 a gallon.
• One-year inflation expectations edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, while long-term expectations held steady at 3.3%.

Switzerland: GDP (2Q P): 1.5%% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Switzerland’s economy surged in the second quarter, powered by a rush to ship goods ahead of looming US tariffs. Chemicals and pharmaceuticals led the charge.

US: PPI (July): 0.0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.3%)

• PPI y/y: 4.7% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 5.5%)
• Core PPI: 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%); 4.2% y/y vs 4.1% expected (prior: 4.7%)
• Energy prices continued to fall in July (-3.1%), reflecting the decline in oil prices.
• In addition to the headline being slightly below expectations (even after accounting for the upward revisions for June), the PPI components relevant for PCE were on the weaker side.

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 8): 209k vs 202k expected (prior: 200k revised from 199k)

• Initial jobless claims remain at a low level, which adds to evidence that the July's weak employment report did not mark the start of a broad deterioration in the job market.

Eurozone: Industrial production (June): 0.0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from -0.2%)

• IP y/y: 0.1% vs -0.6% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -1.2%)
• The 3-month/3-month annualised growth rate accelerated further to a 13-month high of 3.6%.

UK: GDP (Q2 Prel.): 0.4% q/q as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• GDP y/y: 1.2% vs 1.1% expected (prior: 0.9%)
• A mix of modest growth in consumer spending (0.3% vs 0.2% expected) alongside accelerations in investment (1.2% vs -0.1% expected) and export growth (0.5% vs 0.3% expected) drove the rise in GDP, which shows that, like the eurozone, the UK economy has proved resilient in the face of surging energy prices and rising long-term rates.

UK: Industrial production (June): -0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.5%)

• IP y/y: -0.2% vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.0%)
• Manufacturing production was down 0.5% m/m, but it up 0.5% y/y (vs 1.2% expected), after 2.0% y/y in May.

Norway: Norges Bank leaves key rate unchanged at 4.25% as expected

• The central bank noted that it was "too early to conclude that inflation outlook had changed materially", adding that "it may thus still become necessary to raise the policy rate."