每日宏观动态

US: Pending home sales (April): 1.4% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.5%)

• Sales remained relatively sustained after a rebound over the past two months.
• Disparities across the main 4 districts remained in place. Sales decreased after two months rebound in South and West districts, while they rebounded in Northeast and Midwest districts.
• Despite high mortgage rates, underlying demand remained relatively sustained to stabilize the market of existing houses.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (March): 5% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.9%)

• Claimant count remained stable at 4.4% (April data).
• 3-month employment was up by 148 k after 24 k the prior 3M period, and unemployment decreased by 77 k (94 k prior period). The 3M employment was fueled by higher full-time employees while part-time jobs have decreased.
• Payrolls for April were less favorable, down by 100 k after -28 k the prior month. Jobless claims were up by 26.5 k after 4.9 k the prior month.
• Vacancies remained on a downward trend.
• As seen prior months, labor remained on a downward trend and could turn more fragile next months.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (March): 4.1% y/y vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.9% revised from 3.8%)

• Wage growth was sustained over the month, fueled by higher bonuses. Wage growth ex-bonus has slowed down from 3.6% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.
• Total wage growth was strong in services (4.4% y/y after 4.1% prior month), while the growth in wages has declined in manufacturing sector (3.5% y/y after 4.1% y/y prior month).

US: NAHB housing market index (May): 37 vs 34 expected (prior: 34)

• Sentiment in housing was higher than expected from the prior month. The rebound was limited, and the index remained close to its low level.
• Opinions have improved from the prior month about present and future sales as well as on new demand, despite constraints from high mortgage rates.

Switzerland: GDP (Q1-26): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• First estimate has shown a still resilient activity; net trade was slightly positive as imports fell while exports were sluggish; domestic demand remained resilient.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (May): 85.8 (prior: 85.5)

• Consumer confidence has slightly increased over the month; opinions have improved on both future financial situation and economic outlook.
• Willingness to buy large items has slightly improved over the month except for housing.

US: Empire manufacturing (May): 19.6 vs 7.2 expected (prior: 11)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded to reach new high over the past two years.
• On current situation, opinions have improved on new orders, inventories, delivery time, while they decreased on employment.
• The 6M index has also rebounded from the prior month thanks to new orders, shipments, capex and employment.
• On prices, views on both current and future situation pointed to accelerating prices paid and selling prices.

US: Industrial production (April): 0.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.5%)

• Industrial activity has strongly rebounded over the month; manufacturing production was up by 0.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m.
• The rebound was driven by utilities (gas) and by autos, computers and electronics production.

Italy: CPI (April): 1.6% m/m vs 1.7% expected (prior: 1.6%)

• Final data came slightly lower than initial estimates. Monthly rises were due to higher energy prices and transport costs, but also to a rebound in clothes and hotel-restaurant prices.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.

Poland: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 1.1%)

• While fuel prices have declined over the month, prices have accelerated for clothes, food, housing and leisure.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y.

US: PPI (April): 1.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)

• Monthly prices surged on energy and transport costs and prior month data were revised higher.
• Energy prices were up by 7.8% m/m after 10.1% m/m prior month; services were up by 1.2% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) due to a monthly rebound in trade, transport and warehouse costs.
• Yearly trend has surged from 4.3% y/y prior month (revised up from 4.0% y/y) to 6% y/y; core PPIs were up by 5.2% y/y after 4% y/y prior month (revised up from 3.8% y/y).
• Energy and services are fueling inflation pressures and next core PCE should rise further above 3% y/y. Debate will intensify among FOMC as well as concerns about inflation while Warsh is just named as the new Fed chairman.

Eurozone: Industrial production (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)

• Activity remained contrasted at sector level; production was up by 1.1% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month) in capital goods, while being down for the second month for energy.

France: Unemployment rate (Q1-26): 8.1% vs 7.8% expected (prior: 7.9%)

• Unemployed has sharply increased over the quarter.

France: CPI (April): 1.2% m/m as expected (prior: 1.1%)

• Energy prices were up by 4.7% m/m (8.9% m/m prior month) and services up by 1.2% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) due to higher transport costs.
• Final data confirmed the yearly trend has accelerated to 2.5% y/y after 2.0% y/y prior month.

Germany: Wholesale price (April): 2% m/m (prior: 2.7%)

• Yearly trend has sharply rebounded to 6.3% y/y after 4.1% y/y prior month.

Sweden: CPI (April): -0.6% m/m as expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly fall in inflation; core inflation was down by 0.6% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month.
• Prices have increased for transport-energy, clothes and leisure but fell sharply over the month for food and housing.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.6% y/y prior month to 0.8% y/y and from 1.1% to 0% on core inflation.

Turkey: Current account (March): -9.67bn USD vs -9.70bn expected (prior: -7.32bn revised from -7.50bn)

• Trade balance has deteriorated over the month with a strong rise in imports.
• Official reserves have decreased by USD 43.4 bn after USD -10.6 bn the prior month.