每日宏观动态

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 2): 226k vs 222k expected (prior: 219k revised from 218k)

• Continuing claims: 1974 k after 1936 k the prior week.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-25): 2.4% q/q vs 2% expected (prior: -1.8% revised from -1.5%)

• Productivity has rebounded in Q2 thanks to higher activity and limited rise in wages.
• Output was up by 3.7%q (-0.6%q in Q1), while employee hours remained stable (1.3% after 1.2% in Q1); wages were up by 4%q after 5%q in Q1.
• Unit labor costs were up by 1.6%q after 6.9%q in Q1-25.
• Sustained activity absorbed labor costs, which have moderated in Q2-25.

US: Wholesale inventories (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inventories have increased for drugs and groceries but declined sharply for autos and computers.
• Sales were up by 0.3% m/m after -0.4% m/m prior month, driven by sales in autos and groceries.

UK: The BoE cut its key rates by 25 bp to 4.0% as expected.

• The bank cut key rates with a 5-4 vote; the statement pointed to expected return of inflation to 2% medium-term but also mentioned upside risks on inflation-wage. Inflation is expected to peak to 4% in September with risk of second round effects and persistent inflation pressures. A modest growth is expected despite still downside risks.
• The bank still prefers a cautious and gradual easing; an easing bias is in place, but the agenda of next cut is data dependent, and the bank will probably wait for several months.

Germany: Industrial production (June): -1.9% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 1.2%)

• Industrial activity has plunged in manufacturing in June, down by 2.8% m/m after -0.4% m/m in May. All sectors were down over the month and a sharp reversal was seen in capital and consumer goods from the prior month.
• Besides manufacturing, activity was strong in construction and energy sectors over the month.

Germany: Trade Balance (June): 14.9bn EUR vs 17.3bn expected (prior: 18.5bn revised from 18.4bn)

• Exports were up by 0.8% m/m after -1.4% m/m prior month; imports have rebounded, up by 4.2% m/m after -3.9% m/m the prior month.

Norway: Industrial production (June): -0.1% m/m (prior: -0.5%)

• Production in manufacturing sector was down by 0.1% m/m after -1.6% m/m the prior month. Activity has fallen over the month in mining and refined oil sectors, while production in basic metals remained on a positive trend.

Sweden: CPI (July): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Preliminary data pointed to monthly moderation in prices but rising yearly trend, up by 3% y/y after 2.8% y/y prior month.
• Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and up by 3.1% y/y (3.3% y/y prior month).

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (July): 2.9% as expected (prior: 2.9%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month but the ratio remained stable.

Eurozone: Retail sales (June): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.7%)

• Sales have rebounded after contraction (revised lower) the prior month; non-food sales were up by 0.6% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month.
• Sales were globally resilient over the quarter but were highly volatile on a monthly basis.

Germany: Factory orders (June): -1% m/m vs 1.1% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -1.4%)

• Orders have contracted further; they stayed volatile and weaker than in Q1-25.
• By sector, orders were highly volatile monthly at sub-sector levels; over the month, orders fell for capital goods, rebounded for intermediate goods and were moderately positive for consumer goods.
• Trade uncertainties have weighed down on orders, but orders should be supported by more public demand in H2-25, in line with more progressive fiscal support.

Italy: Industrial production (June): 0.2% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.7%)

• Activity remained highly volatile on a monthly basis.
• By sector, production has contracted for the second month for consumer sector, while it was moderately up for energy and capital goods; intermediate sector has reversed from negative to moderately positive over the month.

US: Trade balance (Jun): -60.2 bn USD vs -61.0 bn expected (prior: -71.7 bn revised from -71.5 bn)

• The US trade deficit narrowed in June as a sharp drop in consumer goods imports outpaced a smaller decline in exports.
• Data reveals that the surge in goods imports by US firms ahead of Trump-era tariffs fully reversed in the second quarter.

US: Services PMI (Jul F): 55.7 vs 53 expected (prior: 52.9)

• The S&P Global US Services PMI was revised up to 55.2, surpassing the market consensus of 53, marking the strongest growth in private services activity this year.
• Composite was also revised higher from 54.6 to 55.1

US: ISM Services (Jul): 50.1 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 50.8)

• US service activity stalled in July as firms cut jobs amid weak demand and rising costs, according to the Institute for Supply Management.
• The employment index fell to 46.4, its lowest since the pandemic and the fourth contraction in five months. Input prices hit their highest level since October 2022, while the new orders index slipped to 50.3, signaling near stagnation.
• The report adds to signs of economic strain, with recent data revealing a weaker labor market and sluggish inflation-adjusted consumer spending.
• Conversely, it contradicts the positive momentum indicated by the services PMI, which likely reflects a bias toward larger companies with global operations in the ISM data.

UK: Services PMI (Jul F): 51.8 vs 51.2 expected (prior: 51)

• The S&P Global UK Services PMI for July 2025 was revised up to 51.8 from an initial 51.2 but remained below June's 11-month peak of 52.8.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Jul F): 51.0 vs 51.2 expected (prior: 50.5)

• The final reading was revised down to 51.0 from 51.2 but still reflects steady growth in the services sector since March.
• Composite PMI was also revised slightly lower from 51.0 to 50.9.

Eurozone: PPI (Jun): 0.8% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Eurozone industrial producer prices rose in June, halting three months of sharp declines, driven by a 3.2% rebound in energy costs after May's 2.2% drop.

France: Industrial production (Jun): 3.8% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.5%)

• Early national industrial production data suggest a solid rise in eurozone IP for June and a modest gain in Q2 2025. France reported a 3.8% monthly surge, driven by a rebound in aircraft and spacecraft manufacturing as supply chain issues eased, according to its statistics office. Spain saw a 1% increase, while Portugal recorded a 3.6% decline.
• The overall picture hinges on upcoming data from Germany, Italy, and Ireland. Despite June's strong French performance, much of it reflects catch-up production, leaving Q2 broadly flat, aligning with subdued manufacturing PMI figures.
• The final manufacturing PMI revealed a sharper-than-expected contraction in France's private sector, with the composite index falling to 48.6, further below the neutral 50 mark.

US: Factory orders (Jun): -4.8% m/m as expected (prior: 8.3% revised from 8.2%)

• Factory orders fell sharply, driven by a 22.4% plunge in transportation equipment, which partially offset May’s 48.5% surge. Civilian aircraft orders tumbled 51.8% after a 231.6% spike the previous month, while ship and boat orders dropped 20% following a 39.9% rise in May.
• Excluding transportation, factory orders rose 0.4% m/m, beating expectations of 0.3%.

Switzerland: CPI (Jul): 0.0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Swiss inflation surprised on the upside for the second month in a row, rising to 0.2% y/y from 0.1%. The increase was driven by higher-than-expected services inflation, particularly in volatile categories like transport services and package holidays, as well as non-seasonal components.
• This data supports the SNB's stance from its June meeting, where it cut the policy rate by 25 bp to 0% but maintained a hawkish tone. However, risks remain: the US 39% tariff, if sustained, could dampen growth, weaken inflationary pressures, and raise the likelihood of further easing. Additionally, a narrowing rate differential with the ECB, leading to persistent upward pressure on the Swiss franc, could increase the chances of a return to negative interest rates.

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Jul): 48.8 vs 49.9 expected (prior: 49.6)

• Swiss manufacturing sentiment printed below expectation, driven by lower order backlogs, production and purchasing volumes.