每日宏观动态

US: ADP Employment change (Aug): 38k vs 47k expected (prior: 44k)

• Private employers added jobs more slowly than in the spring, but the labor market remains steady. Hiring was led by education and health services, with leisure and hospitality also contributing. Manufacturing, by contrast, shed jobs.
• The figures suggest a balanced labor market balance, giving the Federal Reserve room to focus on inflation.

 

US: Factory orders (Jul): 0.9% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.3%)

• US factory orders snapped back, lifted by a 2.3% rise in transportation equipment, driven largely by a 12.7% surge in civilian aircraft and parts.
• Strip out transportation and orders still climbed 0.6%; exclude defense and they rose a stronger 1.0%.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 53.9 vs 53.4 expected (prior: 53.9)

• Final business sentiment remained stable over the month.
• Opinions have decreased on production and exports but increased on employment.
• The increase in prices paid has moderated over the month.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (Aug.): 54.6 vs 55.2 expected (prior: 55.6)

• Business confidence has decreased from the prior month, but the index remained high.
• Opinions have slightly decreased on production and new orders and decreased more on backlog of orders, inventories and employment.
• Export orders have increased; prices paid remained stable.
• Both PMI and ISM manufacturing remained at high level, but components show some volatility in activity and slower momentum.

 

US: Construction spending (July): -0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.1%)

• Residential spending has decreased by 1.3% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (July): 7271k vs 7313k expected (prior: 7182k revised from 7359k)

• Jobs openings have increased over the month, but prior month data were significantly revised lower.
• Job opening has increased only for health and government sectors; openings have decreased for trade-transport, business services and leisure-hospitality.
• In parallel, hirings, separations and quits have decreased over the month.
• Labor seems to stabilize, but on lower level of hiring and firing. Growth engines in labor demand from trade-transport and business services have moderated over the past months.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Aug.): 3.3% y/y as expected (prior: 2.9%)

• Preliminary inflation has increased by 0.4% m/m, as expected, after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Energy prices were up by 2.9% m/m after 2.7% m/m the prior month.
• Good prices were up by 0.6% m/m after -2.2% m/m and services up by 0.1% m/m after 1.1% m/m prior month.
• Core inflation has increased by 0.2% m/m after 0% the prior month; inflation pressures come mainly from the energy sector, with no major signs of spillover effects.
• Core inflation was down to 2.4% y/y after 2.5% y/y the prior month.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (July): 6.4% vs 6.3% expected (prior: 6.4% revised from 6.3%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 52.7 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Final data confirmed the increase of business sentiment from the prior month but marginally less than expected.
• Germany has driven the monthly increase with index up to 54.3 (from 52.2 prior month). New orders and production were on the rise as well as exports.
• Disparities across countries has increased with French index slightly up (from 49.8 to 51.1) but decreasing confidence in Italy (49.6) and Spain (49.5).
• Selling prices have not increased further but remained at high level.

 

Italy: CPI (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.0%)

• Preliminary data pointed to monthly rises in energy-transport and also in leisure communication while prices of goods (clothes) have decreased.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.2% y/y from 2.9% y/y prior month.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (July): 5.8% vs 5.6% expected (prior: 5.8% revised from 5.7%)

• Unemployed has marginally increased over the month.

 

Italy: GDP (Q2-26): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• GDP growth has been confirmed, and details were published.
• Consumption and investment were sustained, while public spending has decreased; imports have strongly rebounded, being a drag on quarterly growth.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 48.3 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 49)

• Falling new orders have driven business confidence lower on the month.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 56.1 (prior: 55.7 revised from 55.8)

• Business confidence has slightly increased over the month; details offered a mixed picture, with rising production and employment but decreasing opinions on new orders and exports.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 57.1 vs 54 expected (prior: 53.2)

• Sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month; opinions have increased on production, orders and employment and decreased on prices.
• In parallel, the PMI services has sharply declined from 63.9 prior month to 58.3; views have decreased on activity, new business and prices.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (August): 51.7 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Business sentiment has slightly decreased over the month; sentiment has decreased on new orders, while production and employment were positively oriented.
• Selling prices have increased but moderately.

 

UK: M4 (July): 4.5% y/y (prior: 5.0%)

• Mortgage approvals have decreased from 58.2 k the prior month to 56.1 k.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (Aug.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

• Prices were up by 1.6% y/y after 1.4% y/y prior month.

 

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 46.3 (prior: 47.5)

• Business sentiment has decreased, driven lower by decreasing new orders.

 

Brazil: GDP (Q2-26): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.1%)

• Consumption was down by 0.4% q, but investment remained on positive trend (1.2%q after 3.4% in Q1); net trade was a drag on growth as imports have strongly rebounded,

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 48.1 (prior: 47.7)

• New orders have slightly increased over the month, but its related index remained below 50.

Germany: CPI (Aug.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Preliminary inflation has pointed to a limited monthly rise, slightly below expectations.
• According to preliminary data, the monthly inflation was mainly driven up by energy and transport, and also clothes, and education.
• The yearly trend was up by 2.9% y/y after 2.8% y/y prior month.

 

Poland: CPI (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Preliminary inflation pointed to a sharp monthly rise due to higher oil prices, up by 5.2% m/m.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.4% y/y after 3.0% y/y the prior month.

 

Poland: GDP (Q2-26): 1% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Domestic demand was stronger over the quarter; consumption was up by 0.8%q and capex up by 3.7%q; exports and imports were both more dynamic over the quarter.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 8.1% (prior: 7.6%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month, while employed and labor force have decreased.

 

Turkey: GDP (Q2-26): 1.1% q/q vs 1.0% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• Growth has accelerated over the quarter on firmer domestic demand.

US: Chicago PMI (Aug.): 47.1 vs 57.9 expected (prior: 57.6)

• Business sentiment has sharply decreased over the month and the index passed below 50 after a peak in confidence seen in May.
• Opinions have decreased on new orders, production while prices paid have increased further.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug.): 51.7 vs 51 expected (prior: 55.2)

• Final data have confirmed the decline in consumer confidence from the prior month, but at a slower pace than initially estimated.
• Sentiment on current situation has less declined than initially estimated as well as expectations.
• Sentiment has decreased on household financial conditions, with less favorable outlook on income, lower business expectations and renewed concerns on unemployment.
• Rates and gasoline prices are expected to rise in the future; sentiment was more cautious about large purchases (autos and houses).
• Inflation expectations at 12M have decreased from 4.2% prior month to 4.0%, while the 5-10y inflation expectations remained stable at 3.3%.

 

France: CPI (Aug.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Preliminary data have shown inflation reaccelerating more than expected in Aug.
• Fresh food prices (2.8% m/m) and energy prices (3.4% m/m) were responsible for the rebound in prices; prices of goods were up by 1.7% m/m while services remained flat over the month.
• Yeary trend has rebounded from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.7% y/y.

 

France: Consumer spending (July): 0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)

• Spending was better than expected but mainly driven by autos and higher energy bill over the month.

 

France: GDP (Q2-26): 0% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Growth estimated has been sharply revised down (from 0.2% to 0%).
• Consumption was up by 0.3%q and public consumption up by 0.4%q; investment was up by just 0.1%q, with 0.1%q in equipment, but a sharp decline in public investment (-1.1%q) and in construction (-0.4%q).
• Net exports were positive, contributing by 0.6 pp to GDP, while inventories were down and have contributed by -0.7 pp to GDP.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6.4% as expected (prior: 6.4%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month, up by 4 k after 6 k the prior month.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 94.5 vs 94.6 expected (prior: 94.2)

• Consumer confidence has slightly increased over the month, driven by improving future economic situation.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Aug.): 89.9 vs 90 expected (prior: 89.7 revised from 89.6)

• Business confidence has marginally increased over the month.
• In parallel, confidence has also regained in construction and service sectors.

 

Spain: CPI (Aug.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0%)

• Preliminary data pointed to higher inflation, but monthly changes remained below consensus expectations.
• No details were available, but energy prices were the driver of this monthly rebound.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.9% y/y prior month to 4.5% y/y.

 

Spain: Retail sales (real) (July): -0.3% y/y (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

• Sales have contracted over the month by 0.9% m/m due to falling gasoline stations and other sectors, except household goods.

 

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Aug.): -5.3 vs -5.1 expected (prior: -6.1)

• Business confidence has improved over the month, but slightly less than expected.
• Opinions have improved on future production and employment but decreased for new orders and exports.
• Selling prices have decreased over the month.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Aug.): -15.5 as expected (prior: -15.9)

• Consumer confidence has slightly improved over the month.
• Views were less negative about financial situation and unemployment while preference for saving has increased again.

 

Eurozone: Services confidence (Aug.): 5.8 vs 4.9 expected (prior: 5.1 revised from 4.7)

• Opinions have improved driven by higher activity and rising current and future demand; employment has increased, but prices have also strongly increased over the month.
• Opinions have slightly increased in retail and construction sectors over the month.

 

Norway: Retail sales (July): -0.7% m/m (prior: 1.6% revised from 1.8%)

Norway: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (July): -0.2% m/m (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.0%)

• Yearly trend has slowed to 6.2% y/y after 7.7% y/y prior month.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 98 (prior: 97.2 revised from 97.1)

• Confidence has regained about macro situation.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Aug.): 107.1 (prior: 107.5 revised from 107.9)

• Confidence has marginally decreased in the manufacturing sector.

 

Sweden: GDP (Q2-26): 1.6% q/q vs 1.4% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

• Activity has strongly rebounded after the contraction seen in Q1.
• Consumption was strongly up (0.9% q) as well as public consumption and investment over the period.
• Net exports were also a strong contributor to the quarterly growth.

 

Switzerland: KOF (Aug.): 106.7 vs 103 expected (prior: 104.2 revised from 103.5)

• Business confidence has strongly rebounded over the month and the index was back to high level seen in pre-covid period.