每日宏观动态

US: Services PMI (Sept.): 58.8 vs 58.7 expected (prior: 56.5)

• The final business sentiment in services has increased slightly more than expected over the month. It reached its highest level for five years.
• The improvement was broad-based across major components. Sentiment on activity has increased, driven by higher domestic demand while exports have improved at a slower pace.
• Employment has increased more rapidly over the month than in past months.
• Costs were on the rise due to gas and transport costs. Selling prices have also increased sharply.

 

US: ISM Services (Sept.): 54.9 vs 55 expected (prior: 55.4)

• Contrary to PMI, the ISM business services came just below expectations and lower than the prior month.
• In details, the picture is mixed: sentiment has decreased on activity and export orders, but it decreased only modestly on new orders from the prior month high level.
• Supply delivery has increased due to constraints from tariffs and disruption in the Middle East.
• Employment was on the rise, while prices paid have again strongly accelerated to reach a four-year high.

 

Eurozone: Services PMI (Sept.): 53 as expected (prior: 51.6)

• Final PMI services was in line with first estimate; opinions on new orders have increased but less than expected.
• PMI has strongly rebounded in Germany (from 49.7 to 52.9), in France (from 48 to 51.4), and increased in Spain (from 57.8 to 58.3), while the index decreased in Italy (from 55.2 to 51.7).
• New orders have globally increased but they decreased for Italy and Spain, while the index remained below 50 in France (49.7) despite some improvement.
• Domestic activity was better oriented while exports remained flat from the prior month. Employment has increased but at a slower pace than the prior month.
• Costs were on the rise and selling prices have sharply accelerated.

 

Eurozone: PPI (Aug.): 1.9% m/m as expected (prior: 1.6%)

• Energy prices were up by 5.6% m/m after 5.8% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 5.8% y/y to 8.2% y/y.

 

UK: Services PMI (Sept.): 52.1 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 52.5)

• Final data were better than in the first estimate; new orders have decreased from prior month, but less than expected and the related index remained just above 50, at 50.3.
• Activity has shown moderate expansion, thanks to dynamic demand for technology services, while exports remained under pressure; job cuts have continued but at a moderate pace.
• Costs remained on the rise and selling prices have accelerated further.

 

Turkey: CPI (Sept.): 1.84% m/m vs 2.28% expected (prior: 1.84%)

• Inflation has declined for food, but it has increased sharply for education, utilities and clothes over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 31.51% y/y to 29.73% and core inflation from 30.07% y/y prior month to 28.7% y/y.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Sept.): 29k vs 90k expected (prior: 133k revised from 162k)

• Unemployment ratio has increased from 4.1% prior month to 4.2%; wage growth has slowed down, up by 0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month and up by 3.0% y/y (3.1% y/y prior month).
• Payrolls remained highly volatile and were again revised, but lower over the past months. Aug. payrolls were revised from 162 k to 133 k and July data revised from 21 k to -10 k.
• Payrolls have declined in all sectors over the month, except one: trade-transport.
• The largest slowdown came from services: 28 k after 55 k the prior month.
• Within services, jobs created in trade-transport were up (18k after 9 k prior month), while they contracted for business services and government; they also decreased in education-health and leisure-hospitality.
• Jobs created have slowed down in construction and manufacturing sectors but remained positive.
• Labor force has increased over the month as well as unemployed; other measures of unemployment ratio has decreased over the month, contrary to the total unemployment ratio.
• Labor is not overheating, but a high volatility across sectors every month makes identifying the underlying trend more difficult; labor still seems to navigate in the low hiring/ low firing regime.

 

US: Factory orders (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.9%)

• Orders have decreased for defense and aircrafts over the month.
• Nevertheless, orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core capital goods) were up by 1.6% m/m after 0.6% m/m.
• Shipments were flat over the month (0.8% m/m prior month) but were up by 0.5% m/m for core capital goods.
• Total inventories and those for core capital goods were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month.

 

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Sept.): 3.8% y/y vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.2%)

• Inflation was up by 0.6% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month according to flash estimate.
• Energy prices were up by 3.9% m/m after 2.9% m/m (18.8% y/y).
• Prices of goods have accelerated, up by 2.1% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month).
• Services were down by 0.7% m/m (flat the prior month).
• Core inflation has accelerated to 2.5% y/y after 2.4% y/y.
• Energy prices will continue to fuel upside risk on headline inflation at year end.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 2.0% (prior: 2.0% revised from 2.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept. 26): 197k vs 200k expected (prior: 198k revised from 197k)

• Continuing claims: 1701 k after 1712 k prior week.

 

US: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 55.9 vs 57 expected (prior: 53.9)

• Final PMI have increased but less than initially estimated.
• Nevertheless, the rebound in confidence was broad based across the major components: production, new orders and also employment, Activity was driven by higher demand from government (defense) and AI related equipment.
• The exception to the monthly rebound was lower exports due to constraints on tariffs, shipping cost and geopolitical uncertainties.
• Costs remained on the rise and selling prices have also increased further, but at a slower pace than the one seen since Feb.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (Sept.): 54.5 vs 55 expected (prior: 54.6)

• Business confidence has not increased from the prior month and remained close to past month level. Details offered a mixed picture across major components.
• Opinions have increased for new orders and employment but decreased for production, and new export orders, while delivery concerns have decreased but remained high.
• Price paid have shown a new large increase over the month.
• The ISM index remained high, but the components reflect the complex macro situation on both domestic and foreign demand resulting from uncertainties in geopolitics, politics and the commodity environment.

 

US: Construction spending (Aug.): 0.9% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.5%)

• The large rebound in spending was due to home improvement in the private sector while new construction for single-family houses and multi-family houses was just up by 0.2% m/m.

 

Switzerland: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Monthly inflation remained contained despite rising energy, but the yearly trend has accelerated.
• Energy was up by 2.3% m/m (4.1% m/m prior month; the rise was due to rising petrol prices up by 4.8% m/m and 31% y/y).
• Prices of goods were up by 0.4% m/m (1.0% m/m prior month) due to rising prices of clothes. Food prices have contracted over the month.
• Services were down by 0.3% m/m (flat the prior month).
• The yearly trend has accelerated due to base effects, being up by 1.0% y/y after 0.8% y/y prior month. Core inflation was stable at 0.7% y/y.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 55.3 vs 56.3 expected (prior: 57.1)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month from high level prior month.
• Opinions have decreased on production, new orders and employment.
• Prices paid have accelerated further over the month.
• In parallel, PMI services have increased from 58.3 prior month to 59.8. All components were better oriented and notably orders and employment.
• Nevertheless, prices paid and selling prices have strongly accelerated in services over the month.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6.4% as expected (prior: 6.4%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased but the ratio remained stable over the month.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 52.9 vs 52.7 expected (prior: 52.7)

• Final PMI was better than the initial estimate.
• All major components have rebounded: production, new orders, exports - for the first time, and employment. Delivery has increased but less than in past February.
• Costs were on the rise again and selling prices have sharply increased, but at slower pace than seen past May.
• Confidence has increased further in France (50.6) and Germany (53.9) and recovered above 50 for France (50.4) and Spain (51). Index has also sharply rebounded for Netherlands, Greece, and Ireland.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6.2% vs 5.8% expected (prior: 6.0% revised from 5.8%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 49 vs 48.7 expected (prior: 48.3)

• Business confidence has regained from the prior month; new orders index has increased (from 45.1 to 46.4) but it remained below 50.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 51.9 vs 52 expected (prior: 51.7)

• Final data were slightly below the first estimate, but index remained above 50; new orders have increased less than initially estimated but the index was up to 51.2 from 50.6.
• Activity was firmer than prior month mainly due to investment goods and was stronger for medium and large firms. Exports have regained, while supply chain remained under stress (ports, raw materials, geopolitics).
• Employment has improved.
• Costs have increased further, notably in chemicals, electronics, energy and food), and selling prices have continued to increase.

 

UK: Nationwide house prices (Sept.): -0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Yearly trend has slowed down to 0.8% y/y after 1.6% y/y the prior month.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 58.1 (prior: 56.3 revised from 56.1)

• Business confidence has increased further; all major components were on the rise over the month, except employment.

 

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 44.8 (prior: 46.3)

• Business sentiment has decreased further with lower new orders (40.8) and lower production over the month.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 47.9 (prior: 48.1)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; new orders have decreased from 47.5 prior month to 46.9.

US: ADP Employment change (Sept.): 90k vs 75k expected (prior: 36k revised from 38k)

• Job creations came higher than expected, offering a more positive outlook on labor than the JOLTS survey.
• Creations have strongly rebounded for medium (from 0 k to 54 k) and small-sized firms (from 3 k to 23 k).
• Jobs were again mainly created in services (59 k) but the producing sector was also firmer over the month (31 k).
• These data were in line with the positive momentum seen in last PMIs.

 

US: Personal income (Aug.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Wage growth was up by 0.3% m/m as the prior month.
• Disposable income was up by 0.3% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month), but real disposable income was flat over the month (0.3% m/m prior month).
• Saving ratio was down to 4.1% after 4.6% prior month.

 

US: Personal spending (Aug.): 0.9% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Spending was sustained over the month. Goods were strongly up due to gasoline, food, autos and clothes and services were also sustained.

 

US: Core PCE deflator (Aug.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Technical changes have moderated past monthly rises and the historic yearly trend has been revised down by more than 0.35 bp.
• Yearly trend remained stable over the month, after revisions, at 3.0% y/y.

 

US: GDP (Q2-26): 2.2% q/q vs 1.5% expected (prior: 2.5%)

• Q2 GDP was strongly revised up due to higher consumption and firmer investment.
• Consumption was up by 3.8% q/q (0.7% in Q1), due to strong good purchases (4.5%, fueled by durable goods up by 7.4%q/q), and services up by 3.4% q/q.
• Investment was revised up for Q2, but it remained on slower pace from Q1; residential was more positive (up by 2.8% q/q after -7.6% q/q in Q1); other components remained on positive trend: structures up by 0.1% (-1.8% in second estimate; -9.4%q/q in Q1), equipment up by 13.4%q/q after 15.5% q/q in Q1, and R&D-AI up by 9.2% in Q2 after 15.6% in Q1.
• Negative contribution to quarterly growth came from falling inventories (-0.53 pp) and net exports (-1.10 pp).
• The final private domestic demand was revised up from 4.2% q/q to 4.6% q/q (1.8% q/q in Q1).
• These data have shown a resilient domestic economy past quarter; Q3 GDP growth should come in a 2.5%-3% range according to various estimates.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.3%)

• Inventories have increased further due to the auto sector.

 

US: Chicago PMI (Sept.): 58.8 vs 51 expected (prior: 47.1)

• A strong rebound in business confidence.

 

France: CPI (Sept.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• According to preliminary data, energy prices were up by 3.8% m/m (21% y/y) after 3.4% m/m prior month.
• Headline inflation has declined over the month thanks to falling prices of services, down by 1.6% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Food prices rise remained limited, up by 0.2% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.4% y/y after 2.6% y/y the prior month.

 

France: Consumer spending (Aug.): -0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

• Consumption has contracted more than expected over the month; the fall was driven by declining consumption of gasoline, food and households’ durable goods.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 6.4% as expected (prior: 6.4%)

• Unemployed has increased by 12 k over the month after 5 k the prior month.

 

Germany: Retail sales (Aug.): 1.3% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: -3.2% revised from -3.4%)

• After a large fall the prior month, sales have rebounded; sales were stronger for gasoline, IT goods, clothes and pharma products.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 91.2 vs 94.4 expected (prior: 94.5)

• Consumer confidence has decreased with falling opinions about economy and personal situation; views have deteriorated about current situation while expectations on future economy have slightly improved.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 91.9 vs 90.5 expected (prior: 90.2 revised from 89.9)

• Business sentiment has decreased in manufacturing and in services and construction sectors.

 

Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data pointed to still sustained inflation due to a strong rise in energy: fuel prices up by 9.2% m/m (36.1% y/y) after 5.2% m/m prior month and prices of electricity (0.9% m/m after 0.3% m/m).
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 4% y/y after 3.4% y/y prior month.

 

Italy: CPI (Sept.): 2.0% m/m vs 1.7% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Preliminary data pointed to a strong rise in monthly inflation, due a broad-based rise across sectors.
• Prices have accelerated over the month for energy-utility, transport, education, food and hotels-restaurants.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 4.1% y/y after 3.2% y/y prior month.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.8% m/m (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

• Sales have rebounded after the fall seen the prior month.

 

UK: GDP (Q2-26): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Q2 GDP growth was revised up from first estimate, pointing to sustained growth in H1-26.
• Consumption has slowed down to 0.3% q (0.7% q in Q1) and private investment has moderated to 1.8% (after 3% in Q1).
• Net exports have contributed to the quarterly growth, due to strong rise in exports of oil shipments and manufactured goods.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 7.8% (prior: 8.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.