每日宏观动态

US: PPI (Aug.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.9%)

• Prices came lower than expected thanks to falling prices of food, energy and services over the month.
• Food prices were down by 0.3% m/m (1.6% m/m prior month), energy down by 0.4% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month), services down by 0.2% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month).
• After prior month pressures, good inflation was just up by 0.1% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined for PPI from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.6% y/y; core PPI was up by 0.3% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month), and yearly trend has slightly increased from 2.7% y/y to 2.8% y/y.
• The monthly contraction seen in food, energy and services has more than balanced some rises, probably related to tariffs, seen in house furniture, tires, electronic components, computers, iron and apparels over the month.
• Despite rising PMI prices paid, firms have also probably refrained from passing through the rises coming from costs and tariffs.

US: Wholesale inventories (July): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inventories have strongly decreased for the third month for autos.

Italy: Industrial production (July): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded for consumer goods (2.1% m/m after -0.6% m/m prior month), capital goods (1.6% m/m after 0.5% m/m) and intermediate goods (0.7% m/m after 0.2% m/m). These rebounds came after a significant contraction over the prior two months in these sectors.
• On the opposite over the month, production of energy was down by 7.8% m/m.

Spain: Industrial production (July): -0.5% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 1%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded for durable consumer goods and intermediate goods but contracted for capital goods and energy.
• Industrial activity was highly volatile prior months at both the index and sub-sectors levels.

Norway: CPI (Aug.): -0.6% m/m (prior: 0.8%)

• Inflation has decreased for food, household, transport and communication over the month. Core inflation was down by 0.7% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has increased from 3.3% y/y to 3.5% y/y on headline, but remained stable on core inflation at 3.1% y/y.

Sweden: Industrial production (July): -1.7% m/m (prior: 2.7% revised from 2%)

• Industrial activity has reversed after a rebound the prior month.

Brazil: CPI (Aug.): -0.11% m/m vs -0.15% expected (prior: 0.26%)

• Prices for food, housing and transport have declined over the month and balanced the rises seen in clothes and education.
• Yearly trend has declined from 5.26% y/y prior month to 5.13% y/y.

Turkey: Industrial production (July): -1.8% m/m (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.7%)

• A sharp reversal in industrial activity after a rebound over the past two months.
• Except sustained activity in electricity-gas sector, all other sectors have contracted during the month.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Aug.): 100.8 vs 100.5 expected (prior: 100.3)

• Sentiment has regained regularly in small and medium-sized firms.
• While opinions remained cautious on future economy, sentiment has improved from the prior month on future sales, wages and corporate earnings.
• The index has regularly recovered from its April low, but it remained still below the peak seen past Dec. (index at 105).

France: Industrial production (July): -1.1% m/m vs -1.4% expected (prior: 3.7% revised from 3.8%)

• Industrial activity has shown a strong reversal during the month after large rebound in June.
• Manufacturing production was down by 1.7% m/m (3.5% m/m prior month), due to a reversal in transport, auto and food sectors; on the positive, activity was firmer for electricity and refining sectors over the month.
• Renewed political uncertainties will weigh down on confidence and activity over the next weeks/months.

Germany: Industrial production (July): 1.3% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -1.9%)

• Production has rebounded and prior month data were revised up.
• Production of energy was down by 4.5% m/m (-2.7% m/m prior month) and manufacturing production has rebounded by 2.2% m/m (after -0.1% m/m prior month).
• Within manufacturing, activity was driven up by capital goods (3% m/m) and consumer goods (2.1% m/m).
• Activity should progressively recover but it remains fragile and economic indicators still volatile in opposite direction.

Germany: Trade Balance (July): 14.7bn EUR vs 15.5bn expected (prior: 15.4bn revised from 14.9bn)

• Exports: -0.6% m/m after 1.1% m/m prior month; imports: -0.1% m/m after 4.1% m/m prior month.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Aug.): 22k vs 75k expected (prior: 79k revised from 73k)

• Past months data were highly revised: data were revised up for July but revised down for June (data were negative: -13 k payrolls) and for May.
• Trend has obviously deteriorated in several sectors, and data were more negative than JOLTS and ADP suggested.
• By sector, payrolls remained negative on construction (3M of contraction), and in manufacturing (4 months of negative data).
• Payrolls have decreased in services from 85 k the prior month to 63k; a still positive momentum in data was seen in payrolls in leisure-hospitality (28K), and resilient data in trade (11K); on the negative, business services (-17k; 4M of contraction) and government sector.
• Wage growth has slowed down: 3.7% y/y after 3.9% y/y prior month, while monthly change remained stable at 0.3% m/m.
• Unemployment rate was up from 4.2% to 4.3%; all alternative measures on unemployment rate have also slightly increased over the month. The impact of lower immigration on labor force seems still difficult to estimate and to recognize in these figures.
• As seen past month, trend in labor has deteriorated and the balance of risks has shifted towards major downside risks from labor, more than from rising trend in inflation. The Fed will cut key rates in Sept., and this will not be a pre-emptive cut, but a cut justified by a below breakeven trend in payrolls.

Germany: Factory orders (July): -2.9% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -1%)

• Factory orders have contracted further over the month, but prior month data have been revised up.
• Orders for consumer goods have rebounded, thanks to autos; orders for intermediate and capital goods sectors have decreased over the month.

Norway: Industrial production (July): 0.4% m/m (prior: -0.1%)

• Manufacturing production was flat over the month after -0.1% m/m.
• Production was up for food, ships/oil platforms and electricity; on the opposite, production was down for mining, chemical and pharma sectors.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Aug.): -39.9 vs -36.5 expected (prior: -32.8)

• Consumer confidence has sharply deteriorated, driven by falling economic outlook over the month.
• Opinions were stable on financial situation and remained positively oriented for future purchases.

UK: Retail sales (July): 0.6% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.9%)

• Sales were strong but data for the prior month were revised down. H1 series in H1 were also revised down on consumption.
• Sales were firm for clothes, household goods and internet sales.