每日宏观动态
星期二, 十月 27
US: rebounding durable goods orders and consumer confidence (Conference Board index)
US: Durable goods orders (Sept.): 1.8% m/m vs 1.9% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%)
- Preliminary data were just one notch below expectations, but a strong rebound was in place from past month.
- Orders were boosted by civilian aircraft and were also strong over the month for computers, machinery and metals.
- Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core orders) were up by 0.5% m/m after 1.6% m/m prior month.
- Shipments were up by 0.9% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month) and up for core orders by a strong 1.2% m/m ( 0.6% m/m prior month); these data point to probably another strong and positive momentum for order goods next month and an ongoing momentum in IT-AI related sectors.
- Inventories were up by 0.3% (0.5% m/m prior month) and up by 0.5% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month) for core orders.
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Aug.): 2.65% y/y vs 2.61% expected (prior: 2.47%)
- Prices were up by 0.27% m/m (0.32% m/m prior month).
- Over the 20 cities under review, only 6 have offered contraction in prices (3M annualized yearly trend).
US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Oct.): -2 vs 0 expected (prior: -2)
- Business confidence remained negative over the month; the index decreased in both current conditions and in the 6-M view.
- Views were mixed on current conditions: shipments have decreased but orders remained firm while disruption has increased; opinions on capex and employment have decreased while prices paid and selling prices remained on the rise.
- The 6-M views have decreased, notably on shipments, but opinions were better oriented on capex and employment was seen as stable.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Oct.): 91.7 vs 81 expected (prior: 84.2 revised from 81.9)
- Consumer sentiment has strongly rebounded, and prior month data were revised up.
- Opinions have improved on both current conditions and on expectations.
- Views were more positive on economic conditions and also employment.
- Willingness to purchase large items and houses has decreased over the month while it has improved for autos.
- Inflation expectations (average 12 M) have decreased from 6% y/y prior month to 5.8%.
US: New home sales (Sept.): 676k vs 651k expected (prior: 680k revised from 684k)
- Sales were better than expected but they declined from the prior month.
- Two districts have shown a rebound in sales (West and Northeast), while the other two (South, Midwest) have decreased further.
- Average prices of houses sold were up by 0.4% m/m after -10.2% m/m the prior month.
Eurozone: M3 (Sept.): 3.5% y/y vs 3.4% expected (prior: 3.5%)
- Growth of monetary aggregates remained stable over the month, except for M1, trending lower at 2.7% y/y after 2.9% y/y prior month.
- Credit to the private sector remained on stable growth trend at 3.6% y/y.
- Separately, the ECB released its quarterly (Q3-26) credit survey on banks and pointed that the net tightening from banks has increased upon consumer and firms' lending while it was stable on housing; the tightening was mainly coming from France, while credit standards remained ease in Germany, Spain and Italy.
- Net demand has also weakened in all sectors over the quarter: it has decreased the most in France, Germany and Italy.
France: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 80 vs 85 expected (prior: 85 revised from 86)
- Consumer sentiment has sharply declined over the month, reflecting large political instability and social unrest.
- Opinions have deteriorated the most about personal financial situation and mounting fears of higher unemployment; views on economic outlook have also decreased over the month, as seen in the PMI survey (supply side).
Spain: Unemployment rate (Q3-26): 10.18% (prior: 9.87%)
- Unemployed has increased by 4% over the period. The ratio remained close to low level, but it became more volatile in H1-26 and stopped its multi-year decrease.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 8.4% (prior: 7.9% revised from 7.8%)
- Unemployed has increased over the month.
星期一, 十月 26
German business confidence (IFO) on the rise
Germany: IFO (Oct.): 90.2 vs 89.9 expected (prior: 89.9)
- Business sentiment has increased further; views on current conditions have decreased (index down from 89.5 to 88.8), but expectations have increased further (index at 91.6 after 90.4 prior month).
- By sector, views were contrasted: opinions have strongly improved in the manufacturing sector (index turned positive after being negative for several months); views were less negative in the construction sector, while they have deteriorated in services.
Spain: PPI (Sept.): 4% m/m (prior: 2.9%)
- Energy (10% m/m) and electricity prices (9.1% m/m) have strongly rebounded over the month, and manufacturing prices were up by 2.5% m/m.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 13.2% y/y prior month to 18.3% y/y.
星期五, 十月 23
PMI manufacturing and services: higher in the UK, mixed in the US and lower in the eurozone
US: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 56 vs 55.5 expected (prior: 55.9)
- Flash index has pointed to modest increase in sentiment contrary to consensus expectations.
- Views on activity were positive while new orders have increased slowly; export performances were better oriented and employment has strongly regained.
- Selling prices have accelerated further over the month.
US: Services PMI (Oct.): 57.9 vs 58 expected (prior: 58.8)
- Flash sentiment in services has decreased from the prior month on slightly slower activity, despite new orders remained positive.
- Exports have rebounded and employment has just moderately increased over the month.
- Selling prices remained on the rise.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 52.4 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 52.9)
- Flash estimate of business sentiment has decreased more than expected from the prior month, but index remained above 50.
- PMI has decreased for France (from 50.6 prior month to 49.3; new orders at 44.9), being back into contraction territory. Index has increased further in Germany (54.2) and in other countries. Nevertheless, German new orders have slightly decreased from the high level of 54.4 prior month to 53.6.
- Sentiment on exports has slightly decreased over the month; inventories have increased and disruption to supply chain was still mentioned.
- Input costs have increased due to energy, fuel and transport costs; prices have increased but slowly compared to past months.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Oct.): 51.7 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 53)
- Flash estimate has decreased more than expected over the month and new orders have also declined but both indices remained above the 50 level.
- The largest decrease was seen in France (from 51.2 to 48.4), below the 50 level, and new orders came back at low level of 45.9 (from 49.7).
- Business sentiment has also decreased in Germany (from 52.9 to 51.7) but remained above 50.
- Employment has slightly decreased, while prices and selling prices have increased but at slower pace than prior months.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -24 vs -14 expected (prior: -13)
- Consumer confidence has decreased over the month with falling opinions on financial situation, economic outlook and future purchases.
- The index was back to the low seen in April.
UK: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)
- Sales decreased more than expected over the month, but prior month’s data were higher.
- Internet sales have decreased the most over the month, while clothes and household goods remained positive.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 52.8 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.9)
- Flash business confidence has regained more than expected over the month and new orders have increased to 52.1 from 51.2 prior month.
- Activity was firmer related to AI investment and exports were better oriented. Employment has slightly declined over the month, while costs remained on the rise.
- Selling prices have increased but at slower pace.
UK: Services PMI (Oct.): 53.1 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.9)
- Flash index pointed in favor a new rebound in activity and in new orders (index up to 53.3 from 50.3 the prior month).
- Activity was boosted by AI and related services in technology.
- Employment has increased again over the month; selling prices have increased further but at a slower pace than prior month.
Poland: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 5.8% as expected (prior: 5.8%)
- Unemployed marginally increased over the month but the ratio remained stable.
星期四, 十月 22
France: business confidence better oriented but before social unrests; Bank of Turkey cut its key rates.
US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.17): 194k vs 200k expected (prior: 200k revised from 199k)
- Continuing claims: 1708 k after 1703 k the prior week.
France: Business confidence (Oct.): 97 vs 96 expected (prior: 96)
- Business confidence has also regained in the manufacturing sector (index at 105 after 101 prior month).
- Sentiment has improved on total orders, mainly on foreign orders. Views were more positive on the own future production than in the prior month.
- With recent riots and political uncertainties, business confidence will reverse in the next survey.
Poland: Retail sales (Sept.): -3.8% m/m vs -2.9% expected (prior: -0.3%)
- Sales were sustained for autos and pharma over the month but declined in other sectors.
- Sales were up by 3.3% y/y after 3.8% y/y the prior month (in real terms).
Turkey: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 84.8 (prior: 91.9)
- Consumer confidence has declined over the month; lower sentiment was broad-based, driven by falling opinions on financial situation and economic outlook.
Turkey: The bank has cut its key rates (one-week repo) from 37% to 36% as expected.
- The bank cut key rates on slower trend in core inflation and weakening domestic demand; upside risks remain in place due to energy and conflict in the Middle East.
星期三, 十月 21
UK inflation on the rise
Switzerland: M3 (Sept.): 3.9% y/y (prior: 3.6% revised from 3.5%)
- M1 was up by 6.3% y/y after 6.4% y/y the prior month; M2 was up by 4% y/y (4.1% y/y prior month); time deposits have stabilized after several months of sharp decline.
UK: CPI (Sept.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Energy prices were up by 3.5% m/m after 3.8% m/m the prior month due to rises in fuel and electricity costs. Goods prices were up by 1.2% m/m (1.1% m/m prior month) due rises in clothes; services stayed flat over the month as transport costs declined but recreation prices were on the rise. Yearly trend in services has accelerated to 3.7% y/y after 3.4% y/y prior month.
- Yearly trend has rebounded from 3.1% y/y to 3.5% y/y (3.4% y/y expected) and core inflation from 2.6% y/y to 2.8% y/y (as expected).
- The rebound in inflation was expected, and upside risks remain in the pipeline, paving way to the first hike from the BoE in its next meeting in Dec.
UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): 1.5% m/m vs 1.4% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)
- Prices of materials have accelerated over the month (1.5% m/m), while prices of manufacturing goods were moderate and energy prices slightly down.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 6.7% y/y prior month to 8.3% y/y.
UK: PPI Output prices (Sept.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- The monthly rebound in prices was mainly driven by energy prices.
- The yearly trend has accelerated from 3.8% y/y to 4.6% y/y.
Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 101.1 (prior: 102.5)
- Business confidence has declined somewhat over the month.