Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.28): 213k vs 215k expected (prior: 213k revised from 212k)

• Continuing claims: 1868 k after 1822 k the prior week.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q4-25): 2.8% q/q vs 1.9% expected (prior: 5.2% revised from 4.9%)

• Productivity remained on a sustained trend, higher than expected but slower after the strong rebound seen in Q3.
• Output was up by 2.6%q after 5.4%q in Q3; wages were up by 5.7%q after 3.3%q in Q3-25.
• Unit labor costs have rebounded up by 2.8%q after -1.8%q in Q3.
• Despite higher labor costs, productivity remained sustained in Q4-25.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Jan.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.5%)

• Sales were down over the month; the monthly fall was mainly driven by auto fuels (-1.1% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month) and by lower sales of goods, while food was slightly positive.
• Trend remained fragile and confidence could be hit by geopolitical uncertainties and rising gasoline prices.

France: Industrial production (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.7%)

• Production has rebounded but the move was driven by the transport (aircraft) and utility sectors; production of refineries and autos were down over the month as well other sectors.

Spain: Industrial production (Jan.): -0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -2.4% revised from -2.5%)

• Production has contracted further contrary to consensus expectations.
• Production was down over the month in all sectors except energy; a sharp contraction was seen in consumer and intermediate goods sectors over the month.

Sweden: CPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to still sustained monthly inflation; core inflation was estimated being up by 0.6% m/m after -0.4% m/m prior month. Inflation stayed resilient in services while prices declined over the month for food and goods.
• Yearly trend is expected to decline to 1.7% y/y (2.0% y/y the prior month) and core inflation at 1.4% y/y (1.7% y/y prior month).

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Feb.): 3.0% vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.9%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

US: ADP Employment change (Feb.): 63k vs 50k expected (prior: 11k revised from 22k)

• Job creations were firmer over the month, but past month data were revised down.
• Major part of job creations came from small firms (60 k) after depressed data the prior month; creations were up by 10 k in large firms while down in medium-sized firms.
• By sector, creations were positive in the two main sectors but biased in favor of services: 47 k in services and 16 k in the manufacturing sector.

US: Services PMI (Feb.): 51.7 vs 52.3 expected (prior: 52.7)

• Final business confidence in services came lower than expected and from the prior month.
• Demand was weaker, but it seemed to be due to bad weather conditions; new foreign demand has declined over the month.
• Costs have increased due to labor costs and tariffs. Opinions have also decreased on employment.

US: ISM Services (Feb.): 56.1 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.8)

• Business confidence in services has strongly rebounded over the month, contrary to the PMI services (this index is more small firms oriented).
• The improvement was broad based across major sub indicators: rising orders, backlog of orders, employment, export demand and falling prices paid.

Eurozone: PPI (Jan.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Yearly trend remained stable at 2.1% y/y.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 6.1% vs 6.2% expected (prior: 6.3% revised from 6.2%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the period.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Feb.): 51.9 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.6)

• Business sentiment in services has increased slightly more than seen in first estimate from the prior month.
• Sentiment has increased over the month in France (but the index remained just below 50) and in Germany, with improving new orders; index has slightly eroded in Italy and Spain but remained well above the 50 level.
• Current activity was better oriented, but export orders were limited; views on employment are mixed while costs were on the rise (wages, energy and transport costs).

Italy: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 5.1% vs 5.6% expected (prior: 5.5% revised from 5.6%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

Italy: GDP (Q4-25): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Final estimate was in line with first estimate of GDP growth.
• Activity was firmer thanks to investment (0.3%q) and public consumption (0.2%); private consumption was up by 0.1%q while exports were down by 1.2%q.

Switzerland: CPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Prices have rebounded over the month, driven by higher prices for clothes, transport, leisure and housing.
• Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m, as seen the prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 0.1% y/y and core inflation was up by 0.5% y/y after 0.6% y/y the prior month.

UK: Services PMI (Feb.): 53.9 as expected (prior: 54)

• Sentiment has eroded in services from the prior month in final data. Index for new business has decreased from the prior month, but it remained above the 50 level.
• Domestic activity was firmer than exports; employment has decreased due to higher costs. Technology costs were also mentioned on the rise and participated to rising total costs.

Eurozone: CPI (Feb P): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.6%)

• Inflation in the eurozone picked up more sharply than anticipated in February, according to flash estimates. Headline inflation rose to 1.9% y/y, up 0.2 pts from the previous month, driven primarily by a rebound in energy prices, which climbed 0.8 pts to -3.2% y/y.
• Core inflation, also edged higher, reaching 2.4% y/y compared to 2.2% in January. This increase was largely fueled by a rise in service prices, which accelerated by 0.2 pts to 3.4% y/y.
• Italy played a significant role in this uptick, particularly in the hospitality sector, as hotels and accommodation services saw a surge in demand, likely linked to the Winter Olympics hosted in Milan.
• Looking ahead, the ECB is expected to closely monitor any persistently higher energy prices that could lead to second-round effects on inflation. For now, however, policymakers appear inclined to maintain their current stance and hold off on any immediate changes to monetary policy whereas the market disagrees and prices a 30% chance that ECB will hike rates by 25 bp this year.

Italy: CPI (Feb P): 0.6% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1.0%)

• Preliminary data for February reveal a sharper-than-expected rise in harmonized CPI inflation, with the Winter Olympic Games likely driving much of the surprise.
• Services inflation saw a significant jump, accelerating to 3.9% y/y from 2.7% y/y, contributing the lion’s share of the overall increase.
• The surge was concentrated in tourism-related sectors, such as restaurants and hotels, suggesting a temporary boost rather than a sustained rise in underlying price pressures.

US: ISM Manufacturing (Feb): 52.4 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 52.6)

• New orders: 55.8 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 57.1)
• Employment: 48.8 vs 48.3 expected (prior: 48.1)
• Prices paid: 70.5 vs 60.0 expected (prior: 59.0)
• The headline index was little changed from January, indicating a second month of growth at one of the highest paces since 2022. New orders remained solid while the gauge on employment slightly improved.
• The main surprise came from the prices paid index which rose back just above the levels seen during last summer, which were the highest since 2022 - and this was ahead of the attacks on Iran.
• If the recent increase in energy prices is sustained, producers may have little choice but to raise their prices.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Feb. F.): 50.8 as expected (prior: 49.5)

• This final release confirms the manufacturing recovery in the eurozone, with the PMI reaching its highest level since June 2022.
• New orders rose to 51 from 49.2 in January.
• The headline index rose to 50 in Spain and just above this threshold in Germany (50.9), France (50.1) and Italy (50.6).

Germany: Retail sales (Jan.): -0.9% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Retail sales unexpectedly declined in January, but December's figures were revised significantly higher.
• Annual growth slowed to 1.2% in January, from 2.5% y/y in December.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Feb. F.): 51.7 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.8)

• Revised slightly downward from the flash estimate, but it is still very close to the highest level since mid-2024.

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Feb.): 47.4 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Unexpected (slight) decline, but the manufacturing PMI remains in the relatively tight range seen since mid-2024.

Turkey: GDP (Q4 25): 0.4% q/q vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.0%)

• GDP y/y: 3.4% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8% revised from 3.7%)
• Full-year 2025 growth reached 3.6% after 3.5% in 2024.
• Household spending remained the main driver of growth last year despite high inflation.