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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

vendredi 05 août
US: the surge in non-farm payrolls postpones any pivot in Fed’s strategy

US: Non-farm payrolls (July): 528k vs 250k expected (prior: 398k revised from 372k)

  • Payrolls were largely above expectations and pointed to a still healthy labor, despite some weakening signals (JOLTS, weekly jobless claims), and prior month data were revised up
  • Job creations remained sustained in all major sectors compared to the prior month, except a decline in business services (from 91 k to 89 k).
  • While employment has rebounded in industry and construction sectors from the prior month, job creations remained high in services, up by 402 k after 353 k prior month.
  • Within services, job creations were higher in education-health (from 109 to 122 k), leisure-hospitality (from 74 k to 96 k have rebounded in public sector (from -6 k to 57 k); in trade-transport, creations were up by 54 k after 50 k the prior month.
  • Wage growth has accelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.5% m/m, and the yearly trend remained stable at 5.2% y/y.
  • Unemployment has declined over the month and the unemployment ratio has decreased from 3.6% to 3.5%; different measures of unemployment were or stable or slightly lower, but it was not a large fall in all unemployment ratios used. Interesting to note that leavers ratio has strongly rebounded over the month and the labor force has slightly decreased.
  • Such strong data will oblige the Fed to maintain a significant pace of tightening and no pivot in strategy to be seen in the short run.


France: Industrial production (June): 1.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 1.2% m/m after 1% m/m the prior month.
  • Activity by sector offered a mixed picture with a high volatility across sub sectors: rising activity in electricity, transport, and food but contraction in autos, mining, refineries, and water.
  • Special weather conditions and partial ease in shortages could favor some sectors, while underlying trend in industry should remain weak.


Germany: Industrial production (June): 0.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • Activity has rebounded after contraction in the prior month; all sectors were globally more positive than the prior month, except durable consumer goods.
  • Activity in construction was negative over the month, but it has regained in capital goods and for non-durable consumer goods.


Italy: Industrial production (June): -2.1% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -1.1%)

  • Activity has deteriorated further from the prior month, contrary to other European countries.
  • All sectors have shown sharp contraction over the month, except energy. The fall was driven by falling activity in durable consumer goods and capital equipment sectors.


Spain: Industrial production (June): 1.1% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.2%)

  • Activity has rebounded thanks to energy, non-durable consumer goods and capital goods; other sectors have shown flat or contracting activity.
jeudi 04 août
Bank of England: raising key rates and forecasting a long recession

US: Initial jobless claims (Jul.30): 260k as expected (prior: 254k revised from 256k)

  • Continuing claims have increased from 1368 k the prior week to 1416 k.


Germany: Factory orders (June): -0.4% m/m vs -0.9% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Orders were very volatile on a monthly basis and also volatile across sectors over the past months.
  • Domestic orders were up by 1.1% m/m while foreign orders were down by 1.4% m/m (opposite performances seen the prior month).
  • The picture was also mixed by sector, with high volatility from the prior month: rise of orders in intermediate goods (1.2% m/m), in consumer goods (1.7% m/m) but a fall in capital goods (-1.8% m/m).
  • Separately, factory sales were up by 3% m/m after 3.5% m/m the prior month; all sectors have shown positive sales except durable consumer goods over the month.


UK: The BoE has increased key rates from 1.25% to 1.75%.

  • As expected, the bank has accelerated the pace of its tightening in rates; the door remains open for another 50 or 25 bp rate adjustment in next September meeting, being inflation-data dependent.
  • The Bank was highly worried by inflation, expected to peak at 13% y/y in Q4 and to settle at a still high 5.5% y/y in Q4-23.
  • The Bank has warned about a coming recession. Q4-22 should see a GDP contraction and recession is expected to last the whole year 2023.
  • In Sept., the bank will probably begin to sell its bonds portfolio in addition with maturing existing bonds process under course as part of its QT.
  • In the race for next PM, debate has increased on bank independence as Ms Truss mentioned she wants to change the inflation mandate of the bank.
mercredi 03 août
Mixed signals from services indicators in the US; weakening sales and sentiment in services in the eurozone

US: Services PMI (July): 47.3 vs 47 expected (prior: 52.7)

  • Final data were slightly better than in the first estimates, but a large fall in confidence remained in place.
  • Sentiment has declined on output and expectations. New orders have slightly increased after lows in June, but only from domestic demand.
  • Employment remained positively oriented but on slower pace; rising costs and prices remained but also on a slower pace than in prior months.


US: ISM Non-manufacturing (July): 56.7 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 55.3)

  • Contrary to expectations and to the PMI services, sentiment has regained over the month.
  • The detailed picture is more constructive than for the PMI services, with rising sentiment on activity, new orders, export orders; opinions have declined on price pressures and have shown some normalization for backlog of orders and delivery.
  • Employment has regained but the index remained below 50.
  • ISM manufacturing and services have shown respectively a moderate decline and a slight rebound in each sector over the month; sentiment on prices have eased in both sectors and the index on employment was in both cases below 50.
  • Differences between PMI and ISM are related to size and export-oriented industries; the difference in monthly change could point towards a two-speed activity within services (better in large, gloomier in small and domestic-oriented firms).


UK: PMI Services (July): 52.6 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 54.3)

  • Final data were lower than the first estimates; uncertainty on future activity, rising interest rates and high inflation have weighed down on demand, with has lost some momentum. New business has weakened as well as exports.
  • Employment remained positive due to still existing shortage.
  • Costs and prices have increased further, but on a slower pace than past months.


Switzerland: CPI (July): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Core inflation was down by 0.2% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
  • By sector, prices were sharply down on clothes, oil products, household goods and furniture, but on a strong monthly rise for restaurants-hotels.
  • Yearly trend on headline remained stable at 3.4% y/y, while it has slightly increased for core inflation, from 2.7% y/y the prior month to 2.8% y/y.


Eurozone: PMI Services (July): 51.2 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 53)

  • Final data were better than in the first estimates, notably for France and Spain. Index for Germany and Italy have passed below the 50 level over the month.
  • Momentum in demand has faded and high inflation has weighed down on domestic and foreign demand. Employment remained positive but on a slower pace; costs and selling prices have increased further but also at a slower pace compared to past months.


Eurozone: PPI (June): 1.1% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.7%)

  • Prices remained on a sustained pace over the month due to energy prices up by 2.7% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
  • Ex-energy prices were up by 0.4% m/m after 1.2% m/m the prior month. Prices remained on still sustained pace for consumer durable goods over the month on absolute terms, but the pace was slower than the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has declined for the second time, from 36.2% y/y the prior month to 35.8% y/y, and from 16% y/y to 15.6% y/y for ex-energy prices.


Eurozone: Retail sales (June): -1.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

  • Sales have contracted more than expected over the month; all sectors were down including food over the month. The fall was driven by industrialized goods and internet sales over the month.


Turkey: CPI (July): 2.37% m/m vs 2.61% expected (prior: 4.95%)

  • Inflation remained sustained over the month, even slower than the prior month.
  • Prices were still strongly up for main sectors, such as food-beverage, health, furniture and leisure.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 78.6% y/y the prior month to 79.6% y/y and core inflation from 57.3% y/y to 61.3% y/y.
mardi 02 août
US: job openings have decreased for the first time in June

US: JOLTS Job Openings (June): 10698k vs 11000k expected (prior: 11303k revised from 11254k)

  • Jobs openings have decreased over the month, but prior month data were revised up.
  • Momentum in jobs opening and hirings has decreased over the month, pointing to a peak passed in job market.
  • Job openings remained concentrated on main sectors such as trade-transport, business services, education-health and leisure hospitality.
  • From the prior month, job openings have decreased for trade-transport (retail trade) and leisure, while they stayed stable for business services.
  • Compared to June 2021, job openings came lower than past year for retail trade and leisure sectors.
  • Over the month, job quitters and separations have also declined.
  • A first signal of losing momentum in the US labor market, following regular rises in initial jobless claims.


UK: Nationwide house prices (July): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)

  • Monthly changes on prices have moderated over the past months; demand remained high but rising rates and low inventories have led to some slowdown in sales over the past months.
  • Yearly trend remained positive for prices, and it has accelerated from 10.7% y/y the prior month to 11% y/y.


Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (July): 58 vs 56.2 expected (prior: 59.1)

  • Business confidence has decreased less than expected from the prior month.
  • Sentiment has increased over the month on production and inventories, while opinions have decreased on backlog of orders, prices and employment.
  • The index remained high, compared to other countries, and further slowdown is expected.
  • Separately, the PMI services has strongly declined from 59 the prior month to 55.2, due to decreasing opinions on activity, new orders and prices from the prior month.
vendredi 29 juillet
US consumer confidence has marginally improved from prior month (Michigan index); firmer than expected Q2 GDP growth in the eurozone, except flat German growth.

US: Employment cost index (Q2-22): 1.3% q/q as expected (prior: 1.4%)

  • Wages were up by 1.4% q/q after 1.2% in Q1-22 and benefits up by 1.2% q/q after 1.8% in Q1.


US: Personal income (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

  • Wages were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month.
  • Disposable income was up by 0.7% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month. In real terms over the period, disposable income was down by 0.3% m/m after 0% the prior month.


US: Personal spending (June): 1.1% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Purchases were sustained: up by 1.7% m/m for non-durable goods (0.4% m/m the prior month), +0.77% m/m for services (0.79% m/m prior month) and 1.5% for durable goods (-2.9% m/m prior month).
  • Saving ratio was down from 5.5% the prior month to 5.1%.


US: Core PCE (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Inflation remained sustained due to strong rise in energy, food and other goods and services. The headline inflation was up by 1% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month.
  • Core inflation was up by 4.8% y/y after 4.7% y/y the prior month (headline PCE up by 6.8% y/y after 6.3% y/y prior month).


US: Chicago PMI (July): 52.1 vs 55 expected (prior: 56)

  • Sentiment has decreased on production, new orders, and inventories; prices remained on the rise as well as employment.


US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (July): 51.5 vs 51.1 expected (prior: 50)

  • Consumer confidence has finally slightly improved form the prior month.
  • Opinions on current situation have regained more than in the first estimates from the prior month; expectations have marginally declined from the prior month.
  • Inflation expectations (5-10y) have marginally declined from 3.1%y/y zo 2.9% (2.8% in the first estimates); inflation expectations at 1y have marginally decreased from 5.3% to 5.2%y/y.
  • Consumers were slightly less negative in final data compared to the first estimates notably on current situation.
  • Views have marginally improved on personal finances and on business and were less negative than in first estimate on future business.
  • People expect interest rates and gas prices to continue to rise over the next 12 months, and opinions on the question "government doing a good job fighting inflation and unemployment" have continued to decrease.
  • Willingness to buy house, cars and major appliances have regained from the prior month but remained below May-April level.


France: Consumer spending (June): 0.2% m/m vs -0.9% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.7%)

  • Consumption was better than expected, but prior month data were revised down.
  • Sales were sustained on energy and autos but have fallen for clothes and food. A high volatility and sector rotation is under process as households face high inflation and low confidence.


France: GDP (Q2-22): 0.5% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Growth was stronger than expected but details by sectors offered a more mixed picture.
  • Consumption was down by 0.2% q/q (-1.3% q/q in Q1), with large fall in goods (-1.3% q/q) but a strong rise in services (1.5% q/q); public consumption also down by 0.2% q/q..
  • On the opposite, trend remained positive on capex (up by 0.5% q/q as in Q1), thanks to firms’ investment:  this sector driven by IT spending and services.
  • Exports remained positive (0.8% q/q after 1.6% q/q, thanks to services), but imports have contracted (-0.6% q/q after 1.2% q/q); net trade contribution was more positive at 0.4 pp.
  • Inventories were on the rise, contributing by 0.1 pp in Q2.
  • While domestic demand was globally flat over the quarter, the good surprise came from net contributions from trade and inventories.


Spain: GDP (Q2-22): 1.1% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • GDP growth has rebounded thanks to consumption, up by 3.2% q/q after -2% q/q in Q1-22, housing; on the negative side, public spending, investment in equipment and productivity have contracted; imports were firmer (4.6% q/q), but exports remained on moderate pace (1.6% q/q).


Spain: CPI (July): -0.5% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: 1.9%)

  • Yearly trend has slightly accelerated from 10% y/y the prior month to 10.8% y/y on preliminary data.


Italy: GDP (Q2-22): 1% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Activity was firmer than expected thanks to domestic demand, services in particular, and to the government support related to the EC Recovery Fund. (no details available in GDP first estimates).


Italy: CPI (July): -1.1% m/m vs -0.9% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Monthly changes were negative over the month due to large fall in prices of clothes and communication over the month according to first estimates. On the opposite, transport and leisure prices were on sustained monthly rises.
  • The yearly trend was quite unchanged at 8.4% y/y after 8.5% y/y the prior month.


Germany: GDP (Q2-22): 0% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.2%)

  • Growth was flat over the quarter, but data were revised un for Q1. No details available in the first estimates.
  • By sector, firmer activity in services has faced slower growth in industry and construction over the quarter.


Germany: Unemployment rate (July): 5.4% as expected (prior: 5.3%)

  • Unemployed has increased by 48 k after 133 k in the prior month. Vacancies remained high but eased somewhat from the prior month.


Eurozone: GDP (Q2-22): 0.7% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.6%)

  • According to first estimates, GDP was flat in Germany and declined in some Eastern European countries and Portugal, while it was more sustained in France, Spain and Italy.


Eurozone: CPI estimate (July): 8.9% y/y vs 8.7% expected (prior: 8.6%)

  • First estimates have shown rising prices of food and services over the month, while prices of manufactured goods were down (discount effects).


UK: M4 (June): 4.1% y/y (prior: 5.1%)

  • M4 lending growth pace has moderated from 4% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y.
  • Monetary aggregates have slowed down; in terms of lending, credit cards to consumers have accelerated, while credit to housing has declined over the month; credit to firms has increased over the month.


Switzerland: KOF (July): 90.1 vs 95.2 expected (prior: 95.2 revised from 96.9)

  • Business sentiment has significantly declined over the month; the index was back to the levels seen in Q1-20 and in 2018-19.


Sweden: Unemployment rate (June): 7.7% as expected (prior: 7.8%)

  • Unemployment rate remained low but based on non-seasonal the ratio has increased over the prior two months.


Norway: Unemployment rate (July): 1.7% (prior: 1.6%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.


Poland: CPI (July): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.5%)

  • Monthly change came jst below expectations as fuel prices have declined by 2.6% m/m after 9.4% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend remained unchanged at 15.5% y/y.
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