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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

jeudi 07 décembre
Depressed German industrial production

US: Initial jobless claims (Dec.2): 220k as expected (prior: 219k revised from 218k)

  • Continuing claims: 1861 k after 1925 k the prior week.


US: Wholesale inventories (Oct.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Inventories have decreased on computers and non-durable goods while they were flat or slightly positive in other sectors.
  • Sales were down by 1.3% m/m after 2% m/m the prior month.


Eurozone: GDP (Q3-23): -0.1% q/q as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • The contraction of activity in Q3 was confirmed; more details were available.
  • Consumption was up by 0.3% q (0% in Q2) and public spending up by 0.3%q; on the opposite, capex was flat over the quarter, but exports and inventories were down.


Germany: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1.3% revised from -1.4%)

  • Activity has contracted further over the month.
  • Divergence remained in place across sectors over the month: a strong rebound in energy (7.1% m/m), slightly positive for consumer goods (0.4% m/m), but a sharp contraction in construction and in capital and intermediate good sectors.


Italy: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

  • Activity was up for energy and consumer goods, but down over the month for capital and intermediate good sectors.


Norway: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.6% m/m (prior: -9.0% revised from -8.6%)

  • A rebound in chemical, pharma, and boats-oil platform activity; activity in other sectors was flat or negative over the month.


Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Nov.): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)

  • Jobless has slightly increased over the month; job openings have sharply decreased.
mercredi 06 décembre
US: lower job creations; Eurozone: fragile stabilization of retail sales

US: ADP Employment change (Nov.): 103k vs 130k expected (prior: 106k revised from 113k)

  • Employment survey was lower than expected and remained below 110 k after downwards revisions to prior month data.
  • Job creations have moderated for all categories of firms, from small to large ones.
  • By sector, creations have turned negative for goods (-14 k after 6k the prior month), while they remained sustained in services (117 k after 107K the prior month).


US: Nonfarm productivity (Q3-23): 5.2% q/q vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.7%)

  • As output has been revised up for Q3 (6.1%q/q annualized after 2.1% q/q in Q2), unit labor costs have contracted by 1.2% q/q (2.6% q/q in Q2) as total compensation has moderated, up by 3.9%q/q in Q3 after 6.2% q/q in Q2.


US: Trade balance (Oct.): -64.3 bn USD vs -64.2 bn expected (prior: -61.2 bn revised from -61.5 bn)

  • Exports were down by 1% m/m after 2.3% m/m the prior month; imports were up by 0.2% m/m after 2.7% m/m prior month.


Eurozone: Retail sales (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.3%)

  • Sales have stabilized thanks to a rebound in internet sales (2.2% m/m after -2.1% the prior month); non-food sales were up by 0.8% m/m, but other sectors were negative over the month.
  • Regaining confidence and declining inflation may help to stabilize sales in the future, despite sluggish environment and more moderate job creations.


Germany: Factory orders (Oct.): -3.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.2%)

  • Orders have continued to sharply disappoint; except the rebound in domestic consumer orders, all other sectors have turned back into a sharp contraction; foreign orders were down by 7.6% m/m after a 5.1% rebound the prior month.
  • Despite some improvement in German IFO and PMI in recent months, manufacturing activity remained depressed and exports not a support.
mardi 05 décembre
PMI services better oriented from the prior month

US: Services PMI (Nov.): 50.8 as expected (prior: 50.6)

  • Sentiment has been confirmed slightly up over the month; sentiment on new orders was slightly up but opinions on employment have decreased but the related index remained above 50.


US: ISM Services (Nov.): 52.7 vs 52.3 expected (prior: 51.8)

  • Sentiment in services has regained more than expected; the largest rebound within components was seen in new exports orders.
  • Other components such as activity and employment were slightly better than prior month while index on new orders remained stable (index at high level).
  • Prices paid were slightly lower over the month.


Eurozone: PPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Energy prices were up by 1% m/m after 2.1% m/m the prior month; prices ex-energy was down by 0.2% m/m as seen the prior month; prices of intermediate goods were down another month.
  • Yearly trend has turned less negative from -12.4% y/y the prior month to -9.4% y/y.


Eurozone: PMI Services (Nov.): 48.7 vs 48.2 expected (prior: 47.8)

  • Sentiment has improved from the prior month, with less negative opinions on new business.
  • Sentiment has regained in Germany and Italy, with the index still below 50 at 49.5. Sentiment has weakened over the month for France and Spain, but in Spain the index remained above 50.
  • Costs and prices remained on the rise.


France: Industrial production (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.4%)

  • The production has strongly rebounded in the auto sector (9% m/m), while it has contracted in energy and mining sectors over the month.


Spain: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.1%)

  • Except the energy sector, all other sectors have contracted over the month.


UK: PMI Services (Nov.): 50.9 vs 50.5 expected (prior: 49.5)

  • Sentiment has regained more than estimated; demand was on the rise, and exports to the US were stronger over the month.
  • Employment was better oriented with firmer activity; rising costs due to wages fueled some rise in prices.


Brazil: PMI Services (Nov.): 51.2 (prior: 51)

  • Sentiment remained quite stable and the index above 50; opinions have improved on employment.


Brazil: GDP (Q3-23): 0.1% q/q vs -0.3% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)

  • Consumption was up by 1.1% q and exports have rebounded by 3% q, but investment was sharply down by 2.5% q.
  • The tight monetary policy has not impacted too much consumption while investment has weakened.
lundi 04 décembre
Volatile US factory orders

US: Factory orders (Nov.): -3.6% m/m vs -3% expected (prior: 2.3% revised from 2.8%)

  • Orders were down for civilian aircrafts but up in the defense sector over the month.
  • Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core orders) were down by 0.3% m/m after -0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • Shipments were down by 1.4% m/m (flat the prior month) but shipments were flat for core orders.
  • Inventories were up by 0.1% m/m (0.1% m/m the prior month).
  • A mixed view for capex, while investment remained positive for structure and R&D, not captured in these data.


Germany: Trade Balance (Oct.): 17.8bn EUR vs 17.2bn expected (prior: 16.7bn revised from 16.5bn)

  • Exports were down by 0.2% m/m (-2.5% m/m the prior month); imports were down by 1.2% m/m (-1.9% m/m the prior month).


Switzerland: CPI (Nov.): -0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Several sectors have contributed to the fall of inflation over the month: energy prices (-1.9% m/m), food, household goods and furniture.
  • Housing rents were up by 1.1% m/m after 0% the prior month (up by 2.4% y/y after 1.6% y/y prior month). Services were up by 0.1% m/m.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 1.7% y/y the prior month to 1.4% y/y and, for core inflation, from 2.1% y/y prior month to 1.9% y/y.
  • Other administrative rises in prices are expected entering 2024, due to energy, VAT and rises in rents in the course of 2024. As a result, inflation should be more volatile around - and slightly above, the 2%y/y mark in Q1-24.


Turkey: CPI (Nov.): 3.28% m/m vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.43%)

  • Inflation remained sustained due to a 11.2% m/m rise in utility prices; prices of communication and leisure were also sustained over the month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 61.36% y/y the prior month to 61.98% y/y. Core inflation has also accelerated from 69.76% y/y to 69.89% y/y.
vendredi 01 décembre
Business sentiment in manufacturing improving in Europe from depressed levels

US: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 49.4 as expected (prior: 50)

  • Final data remained close to expectations, pointing to more moderate activity than past month; sentiment has decreased on new orders, mainly on domestic orders while exports were slightly better oriented.
  • Views on employment have decreased while pressures on prices have eased.


US: Construction spending (Oct.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)

  • Residential construction has rebounded by 1.2% m/m (-0.2% m/m the prior month) and non-residential construction was just up by 0.1% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month).


US: ISM Manufacturing (Nov.): 46.7 vs 47.9 expected (prior: 46.7)

  • Business sentiment remained stable from the prior month, but details offered a mixed picture.
  • On the positive, new orders have strongly rebounded (index from 45.5 to 48.3) and the index settled on a six-month high level. Sentiment on inventories has also normalized.
  • On the negative, sentiment on production has fallen (from 50.4 to 48.5), as well as new exports and employment.
  • Prices paid have strongly rebounded as the index has regained from 45.1 to 49.9.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 44.2 vs 43.8 expected (prior: 43.1)

  • Final data were slightly better than expected and have shown a modest gain from the prior month.
  • The index has improved from the prior month for Germany and Spain and slightly for France; it has decreased in Italy.
  • New orders were generally better than in the first estimates and have shown modest gain from the prior month, but index remained well below the 50 level.
  • Employment remained negative; the decrease in cost has fueled some discount in selling prices.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 47.2 vs 46.7 expected (prior: 44.8)

  • Business confidence has finally regained more than expected, showing a bottoming out in many components.
  • Index remained well below 50, but opinions on production and new orders have regained from the prior month.
  • Employment has decreased further; despite falling costs, selling prices have slightly increased.


UK: Nationwide house prices (Nov.): 0.2% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • Demand remained positive for housing despite high and volatile interest rates.
  • Prices were down by 2.2% y/y after -3.3% y/y the prior month.


Italy: GDP (Q3-23): 0.1% q/q vs 0% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Q3 GDP growth was slightly revised up from first estimates.
  • Consumption was up by 0.7% q/q and exports up by 0.6% q/q, while other sectors were negative.


Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.7 vs 45.5 expected (prior: 44.5)

  • Business sentiment has rebounded, driven by higher new orders over the month.


Norway: PMI (Nov.): 49.9 (prior: 47.9)

  • Improving business sentiment and index back close to 50.


Norway: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 1.8% vs 1.9% expected (prior: 1.8%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased over the month but the ratio remained unchanged.


Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 49 (prior: 46.2 revised from 45.7)

  • A strong rebound from the prior month; all major components were strongly up over the month.


Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 42.1 vs 42 expected (prior: 40.6)

  • Business opinions have regained from depressed levels; sentiment has strongly rebounded on production and was less depressed on orders. Views on employment have decreased over the month.


Switzerland: GDP (Q3-23): 0.1% q/q vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)

  • Q3 GDP was firmer than expected but Q2 data were slightly revised down to negative figures.
  • Consumption was up by 0.2%q after 0.4%q in Q2 and construction also up by 0.2% q; public consumption was up by 0.5% q while investment was down by 1.1%.
  • Net trade contribution was more positive thanks to falling imports.
  • Outlook remained moderately positive and a 0.7% GDP growth for 2023 and 1.2% for 2024 is expected.


Brazil: Industrial production (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.1%)

  • Production was up over the month in intermediate goods but has decreased in capital and consumer goods.


Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 49.4 (prior: 48.6)

  • Business sentiment has rebounded, and the index was back just below 50; sentiment on employment and new orders has increased.


Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 47.2 (prior: 48.4)

  • Business confidence has declined on falling new orders.


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