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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

mardi 30 novembre
Weakening US consumer confidence; eurozone inflation at high pace

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (Sept.): 19.05% y/y vs 19.3% expected (prior: 19.65% revised from 19.66%)

  • Prices were up by 0.96% m/m after 1.16% m/m the prior month. All 20 districts have shown a rise over the month, but the magnitude was in a large range from 0.2% to 2.5% m/m across districts.
  • Yearly trend remained sustained.


US: Chicago PMI (Nov.): 61.8 vs 67 expected (prior: 68.4)

  • While opinions on production have increased, those on new orders, employment and prices have eased from the prior month.
  • Shortages and bottlenecks could explain the volatility seen in the index in the prior months; the index remained in the high range seen in 2017-2018.


US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Nov.): 109.5 vs 110.9 expected (prior: 111.6 revised from 113.8)

  • Both expectations and views on current situation have eased from the prior month, and they both remained close to levels seen in Sept.
  • Views on labor were quite positive as employment is seen plentiful, while views were more cautious on global activity. The 6-month views remained positive on future business conditions.
  • With rising inflation expectations, willingness to buy large items (autos, appliances and houses) have decreased from the past 3 months.
  • While trend in labor remained positive, inflation and new developments on virus could impact confidence and spending.


Eurozone: CPI estimate (Nov.): 4.9% y/y vs 4.5% expected (prior: 4.1%)

  • First estimate has pointed to still sustained inflation due to rebounding energy prices (2.9% m/m) and sustained food prices (0.5% m/m). Core inflation was up by 0.1% m/m, and up by 2.6% y/y from 2% y/y the prior month.
  • Inflation is expected to remain high in H1-22, but base effects from German VAT and energy prices should bring progressive decline in inflation during the course of next year. The ECB will probably be revised up its inflation forecasts in the next Dec. meeting.


Switzerland: KOF (Nov.): 108.5 vs 109 expected (prior: 110.2 revised from 110.7)

  • Business sentiment has eased from the prior month, but it remained close to the highs seen in 2016.
  • Downside risks from new variant, expensive CHF and renewed restrictions could weigh down on activity in the coming months.


France: Consumer spending (Oct.): -0.4% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from -0.2%)

  • Consumption has declined due to falling autos, clothes and other durable goods; only energy consumption was up over the month.
  • Disruption in the auto sector and weakening purchasing power have weighed down on purchases.


France: CPI (Nov.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • First estimates have pointed to still sustained monthly rises due to energy (1.5% m/m), food (0.4% m/m) while prices of services remained moderate (0.2% m/m).
  • Yearly trend has increased further, from 3.2% y/y the prior month to 3.4% y/y.


Germany: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 5.3% vs 5.4% expected (prior: 5.4%)

  • Unemployment ratio has declined further over the month; unemployed decreased by 34 k over the month after -40 k the prior month.


Italy: CPI (Nov.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

  • Inflation remained sustained over the month, due to rising prices of energy-utility and food; prices of communication and leisure have declined over the month.
  • Yearly trend has increased further, from 3.2% y/y to 4% y/y.


Spain: Retail sales (real) (Oct.): -0.7% y/y (prior: -0.1%)

  • Sales were down on household goods, but up on energy and personal goods.


Poland: CPI (Nov.): 1% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.1%)

  • Energy and utility prices have sharply increased over the month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further to 7.7% y/y from 6.8% y/y.


Turkey: GDP (Q3-21): 2.7% q/q vs 3.3% expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 0.9%)

  • Q3 growth came lower than expected, but Q2 GDP data were revised up.
  • Public spending and net trade have fueled growth, while consumption has rebounded by 1.2% q/q in Q3 after -1.2 % q/q in Q2.
lundi 29 novembre
Eurozone confidence positive in industry and services before the new virus

US: New home sales (Oct.): 7.5k vs 0.8k expected (prior: -2.4k revised from -2.3k)

  • A stronger than expected rebound in sales over the month; all districts have shown a large monthly rebound.


UK: M4 (Oct.): 7% y/y (prior: 7%)

  • Trend in monetary aggregates pace remained sustained; M4 lending remained on a quite stable trend over the past 3 months at 1.6% y/y.
  • For the first time since many months, credit to consumer has strongly rebounded, driven by credit cards.


Sweden: GDP (Q3-21): 2% q/q vs 1.8% expected (prior: 1% revised from 0.9%)

  • Consumption has driven the rebound (2.4% q/q after 1.4% in Q2), while growth of capex has moderated (from 4.1% q/q to 2.6% q/q); export performances were weak (0.5% q/q) while imports were more sustained (2.4% q/q), reducing the net export contribution from the previous quarter.


Eurozone: Business climate (Nov.): 14.1 vs 14 expected (prior: 14.2)

  • Sentiment remained quite stable over the month.
  • Opinions have improved on future production, orders, exports inventories, employment and prices, while they have decreased on past production, probably reflecting existing bottlenecks and shortages.
  • While the new variant could impact negatively overall confidence, the index was still at a high level compared to 2017-2018.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Nov.): -6.8 as expected (prior: -4.8)

  • As mentioned in the first estimates, the confidence has declined from the prior month on future economic situation, personal financial situation (due to rising inflation) and on unemployment. The index may reflect constraints on falling purchasing power and uncertainties related to virus in the area.
  • Nevertheless, the index has just come back from high levels and was still in line with the levels seen in 2018-2019.


Eurozone: Service confidence (Nov.): 18.4 vs 17 expected (prior: 18 revised from 18.2)

  • Sentiment was stronger than expected; opinions have increased on future demand and employment, while they slightly decreased on business situation.


Germany: CPI (Nov.): 0.3% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • First estimates for prices have pointed towards sustained monthly prices of food, energy-transport and clothes while prices in other sectors were flat or slightly negative.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated further from 4.6% y/y to 6% y/y (national index was down by 0.2% m/m and up by only 5.2% y/y, with different weighing from the eurozone HICP for Germany commented).


Italy: PPI (Oct.): 9.4% m/m (prior: 1.9%)

  • Prices have surged over the month due to a strong rise in energy prices (28.3% m/m) and still sustained rise in intermediate goods (0.9% m/m after 1.3% m/m prior month).
  • Yearly trend has surged from 15.6% y/y the prior month to 25.3% y/y.


Spain: CPI (Nov.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 1.6%)

  • According to first estimates, inflation has more moderately increased over the month after the strong rises in energy- electricity prices the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has slightly increased further, from 5.4% y/y the prior month to 5.6% y/y.
vendredi 26 novembre
Resilient consumer confidence in France and Italy before news related to the new virus in South Africa

France: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 99 vs 98 expected (prior: 99)

  • Sentiment remained stable over the month; concerns were centered on deteriorating purchasing power due to higher inflation, while unemployment was a lower concern.
  • Virus developments in Europe and in the world could weigh down on sentiment, but lockdown or restrictions are still limited at this point of time.


Italy: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 117.5 vs 117 expected (prior: 118.4)

  • Sentiment has decreased from the prior month, but less than expected.
  • Concerns about the global current and future economic conditions have slightly increased from the prior month.


Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Nov.): 116 vs 114 expected (prior: 115.1 revised from 114.9)

  • Sentiment has increased from the prior month; a better outlook is seen on orders, both domestic and foreign orders, production and employment while sentiment was slightly more cautious from past month on economic outlook.


Eurozone: M3 (Oct.): 7.7% y/y vs 7.4% expected (prior: 7.5% revised from 7.4%)

  • M1 growth has eased from 11.1% m/m the prior month to 10.7% y/y and M2 growth marginally eased from 7.6% y/y to 7.5% y/y.
  • Loans to the private credit sector were up by 3.3% y/y after 3.2% y/y the prior month.


Switzerland: GDP (Q3-21): 1.7% q/q vs 1.6% expected (prior: 1.8%)

  • Growth remained firm in Q3 thanks to consumption, up by 2.7% q/q after 4% q/q in Q1.
  • Capex was down (-0.8% q/q after 2.1% q/q in Q1) and equipment was down by 1.3% q/q after 3.2% q/q). Net trade contribution has improved further, despite limited export performances (-0.1% q/q globally, but +0.6% q/q for goods), but imports were down by 3.1% q/q.
  • Downside risks could weigh on Q4 GDP growth due to rising contamination and from an expensive Swiss franc.
jeudi 25 novembre
Weakening consumer confidence in Germany


Germany: GDP (Q3-21): 1.7% q/q vs 1.8% expected (prior: 2%)

  • Final data were revised slightly lower from the initial estimates.
  • Growth was mainly driven by consumption over the quarter (6.2% q/q after 3.8%q/q); other sectors such as public consumption, investment, construction and net export contribution were negative in Q3-21.
  • Unit labor costs have increased by 1.4% q/q after -1.7% q/q in Q2.
  • Growth should stay moderate in Q4, with shortages in industry and uncertainties on virus, but a firmer growth trend is expected in 2022.


Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Dec.): -1.6 vs -1 expected (prior: 1 revised from 0.9)

  • Preliminary sentiment has pointed towards a significant decline, reflecting both concerns on virus and deteriorating purchasing power; last month confidence eased due to weakening business and income expectations.


Spain: PPI (Oct.): 6.1% m/m (prior: 5.4% revised from 5.2%)

  • Energy prices were up by 14% m/m, while they have increased by 0.3%-0.4% m/m in other sectors.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 23.8% y/y to 31.9% y/y.


Poland: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 5.5% as expected (prior: 5.6%)

  • Unemployed has decreased by 2.5% m/m after -2.7% m/m the previous month.


Norway: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 3.6% vs 3.9% expected (prior: 4%)

  • The unemployment ratio was back to the range seen in 2019.


Brazil: CPI (Nov.): 1.17% m/m vs 1.13% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • The IPCA index has increased less than in the prior month but was more sustained than expected.
  • Prices have strongly rebounded in some sectors such as household items, clothes, housing and transport-energy, while they came on lower monthly trend in other sectors.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated further, from 10.34% y/y the prior month to 10.73% y/y.


Brazil: Current account (Oct.): -4464 M$ vs -4862 M$ expected (prior: -1895 M$ revised from -1699 M$)

  • Current account deficit has significantly increased over the period; foreign direct investment has decreased from the prior month (from USD 4.6 M to 2.5 M).
mercredi 24 novembre
US: strong declined in jobless claims; Germany: decreasing IFO index

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.20): 199k vs 260k expected (prior: 268k)

  • Continuing claims: 2049 k after 2080 k the prior week.


US: Durable goods orders (Oct.): -0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.3%)

  • Defense orders and non-defense aircraft orders were highly volatile in past months and were both sharply down over the month; more positively, core orders (orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft) were up by 0.6% m/m after upward revisions to prior month (1.3% m/m): the trend in capex is expected to remain positive, as mentioned by positive PMI data.
  • Shipments were up by 1.5% m/m (core orders: 0.3% m/m) after 0.6% m/m prior month; inventories were up by 0.6% m/m (core orders: 0.4% m/m) after 1% m/m prior month.


US: GDP (Q2-21): 2.1% q/q vs 2.2% expected (prior: 2.0%)

  • Marginal upward revision to the GDP, thanks to consumption and also more positive contribution from inventories.


US: Wholesale inventories (Oct.): 2.2% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 1.4%)

  • Rebuilding of inventories has continued over the month; pace of rebuilding remained slow in the retail sector.


US: Personal income (Oct.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1%)

  • Wages and compensation were up by 0.8% m/m after 0.8% m/m and 0.9% m/m respectively the past month.
  • Disposable income was up by 0.3% m/m after -1.3% m/m the prior month.


US: Personal spending (Oct.): 1.3% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Confirming the rebound seen in retail sales, spending was firmer than expected over the month; both purchases of goods and services were stronger over the month.
  • The saving ratio has declined further from 8.2% the prior month to 7.3%.


US: Core PCE (Oct.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.7% y/y to 4.1% y/y.


US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov.): 67.4 vs 66.9 expected (prior: 71.7)

  • Final date have deteriorated less than in the initial estimates from the prior month.
  • But both expectations and views on current situation have declined from the prior month.
  • The main reasons for the decrease are due to deteriorating financial conditions, due to high inflation; expectations on future business have also decreased and willingness to purchase large items have also decreased from the prior month.


US: New home sales (Oct.): 745k vs 800k expected (prior: 742k revised from 800k)

  • The total number has declined from the prior month, but the situation was more contrasted across districts, with two districts on the rise over the month while two others have decreased.
  • Inventories have slightly increased, while prices remained sustained on average (21.1% y/y).


France: Business confidence (Nov.): 114 vs 112 expected (prior: 112 revised from 113)

  • Confidence has slightly increased from the prior month, including in the specific manufacturing sector.
  • Views have improved on own production and total orders; inventories have slightly increased, while prices have continued to rise and to increase further selling prices.


Germany: IFO (Nov.): 96.5 vs 96.7 expected (prior: 97.7)

  • As seen in latest manufacturing PMI, confidence has slightly decreased from the prior month.
  • Expectations and views on current situation have both slightly decreased from the prior month.
  • By sector, views have declined in parallel on all sectors, including manufacturing, services and construction sectors.


Brazil: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 74.9 (prior: 76.3)

  • Confidence has decreased from the prior month, in both current situation and expectations.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (Nov.): 112 (prior: 111.3)

  • Sentiment has slightly increased from the prior month. Views have marginally improved (in SA data) on orders, inventories, output and export orders.
  • Views on capex and global economic environment have slightly decreased from the prior month.
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