Synthèse Daily Macro

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Nov): 99.0 vs 98.3 expected (prior: 98.2)

• Small business optimism is on the rise, but owners remain frustrated by a persistent shortage of qualified workers and growing concerns over inflation.
• Despite these challenges, many plan to hire, buoyed by expectations of higher sales volumes in the next three months. The share of businesses raising average selling prices jumped 13 points to a net 34% the highest level since March 2023.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Oct): 7670k vs 7117k expected (prior: 7658k)

• Job openings in the US surged in October to a five-month high, yet a decline in hiring and an uptick in layoffs signaled a continued cooling of the labor market.
• The increase in openings was largely confined to a few sectors, including retail, wholesale trade, and health care.
• Meanwhile, the quits rate fell to 1.8%, reflecting waning worker confidence in finding new jobs.
• The release of September and October data was delayed and combined due to the 43-day government shutdown, with September figures incorporating partial self-reported data and updates collected afterward.

Germany: Trade Balance (Oct): 16.9bn EUR vs 15.7bn expected (prior: 15.3bn revised from 15.3bn)

• Germany’s trade surplus grew in October, reaching a six-month high as exports rose unexpectedly by 0.1%, defying forecasts of a 0.2% decline.
• Stronger demand from EU partners drove the increase.
• Meanwhile, imports fell by 1.2%, exceeding the expected 0.5% drop.

Germany: Industrial production (Oct.): 1.8% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1.3%)

• Industrial activity rose again in October thanks to construction, energy and manufacturing.
• Within the manufacturing sector, production has rebounded for capital goods and durable consumer goods.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Nov.): -33.8 vs -34 expected (prior: -36.9)

• Sentiment was less negative than the prior month, thanks to a less pessimistic outlook on the economy.
• Opinions on financial conditions remained steady, with no change in consumers' willingness to make significant purchases.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Dec P): 53.3 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.0)

• US consumer confidence increased for the first time in five months, driven by easing inflation expectations and a brighter outlook on personal finances.
• Consumers now anticipate prices to rise 4.1% over the next year, down from 4.5% and marking the lowest level since January.
• While optimism about the job market improved slightly, most respondents still foresee higher unemployment in the year ahead.

US: Core PCE deflator (Sep): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• The core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8% y/y in line with expectations.
• Real spending stagnated in September (0% m/m vs. 0.1% expected), adding to the case for a cut, while personal income grew 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected, driven largely by higher employee compensation.

Spain: Industrial production (Oct): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• On an annual basis, the industry figure also grew more than anticipated, increasing by 1.2% y/y compared to 0.8% y/y.

Germany: Factory orders (Oct): 1.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 2.0% revised from 1.1%)

• German factory orders soared in October, buoyed by an 87% spike in large-scale transport orders, including aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicles.
• However, despite signs of stabilization in September's factory orders and industrial output, the German Manufacturing PMI for November dropped further below the critical 50-point threshold, signaling continued contraction in the sector impacted by US tariffs.

France: Industrial production (Oct): 0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.8%)

• France industrial output was also better than expected on a yearly basis: 1.7% y/y vs 1.3% y/y.

Eurozone: GDP (3Q T): 0.3% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• The Eurozone's Q3 GDP growth was revised up slightly to 0.3% m/m from 0.2%, driven by a resilient services sector, while manufacturing remains sluggish as well as household consumption.

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 29): 191k vs 220k expected (prior: 218k revised from 216k)

• Continuing claims: 1939 k after 1943 k prior week.

US: Factory orders (Sept.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.4%)

• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were up by 0.9% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month.
• Total shipments were flat after -0.3% m/m prior month; inventories were down by 0.1% m/m.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Oct.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%)

• Sales of food and fuel were up by 0.3% m/m, while sales in other sectors were down by 0.2% m/m after being flat the prior month.

Sweden: CPI (Nov.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a decline in monthly and yearly trend.
• Core inflation was estimated being down by 0.6% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month. No details by sector are available in preliminary data.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y and from 2.8% to 2.4% y/y for core inflation.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Nov.): 3% as expected (prior: 3%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month but the ratio remained stable.

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 49.7 vs 48.9 expected (prior: 48.2)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded from the prior month, but the index remained just below the 50 level.
• The improvement was broad-based as all major components have regained (production, orders, and employment); this improvement is probably related to the deal on tariffs with the US.
• Separately, PMI services index has decreased from 47.8 prior month to 45.3; the decrease was broad-based, except for employment and prices.

Brazil: GDP (Q3-25): 0.1% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• Growth has slowed down in Q3 as consumption was up by 0.1%q after 0.6% q in Q2; other components were more positive: a strong support from public consumption (1.3%q), a rebound in investment (0.9%q) and net trade contribution was positive than to strong exports.