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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

jeudi 16 septembre
US: improving regional business sentiment, and firmer sales

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept. 11): 332k vs 322k expected (prior: 312k revised from 310k)

  • Continuing claims: 2665 k after 2852 k the prior week.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (Sept.): 30.7 vs 19.7 expected (prior: 19.4)

  • Sentiment has recovered on current situation and the index was back to its June level; on the opposite, the 6-month expectations index has eased from the prior month.
  • Details offered mixed picture: improving shipments and inventories but decreasing opinions on new orders, delivery times, employment and prices paid.
  • Regional business sentiment has shown some improvement after large disruption past months, but not all components have improved in parallel.


US: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs -0.7% expected (prior: -1.8% revised from -1.1%)

  • Sales were very volatile, showing a rebound after downward revisions to prior month data.
  • Sales of autos and electronics items have strongly decreased over the month, while those of food, building materials were up; sales in department store and internet have rebounded while those in restaurants were down.
  • Core sales (ex food, autos, building materials and gas) were up by 2.5% m/m after -1.9% m/m the prior month. Besides volatile past months, it is interesting to note that core sales were only up by 0.6% from their March level in absolute terms.
  • Large rotation was seen over past months between services and goods; consumption is volatile and influenced by public supports (recent support to families).
  • A mixed of pre back-to-school shopping versus virus constraints fueled volatility across sectors this month; a still sustained trend in consumption is expected in H2, but with some moderation after strong rebound in Q2-21.
mercredi 15 septembre
US: improving business sentiment (New York Empire index); UK inflation on the rise

US: NY Empire manufacturing (Sept.): 34.3 vs 17.9 expected (prior: 18.3)

  • Sentiment has recovered after weak date the prior month. Opinions have improved the most on current situation from last month and expectations have slightly increased from already high level.
  • Changes in sentiment were fueled by improving views on orders, delivery, stocks and labor; moreover, sentiment on capex has increased after weak months.
  • Index was particularly volatile over the past 3 months, but it has recovered to its high levels.


US: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.9%)

  • Activity in manufacturing was up by only 0.2% m/m (1.6% m/m prior month) with moderate growth in the auto sector and falling activity in machinery.
  • Production was firmer on energy and utility sectors.


UK: CPI (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Prices were higher than expected over the month, due to firmer rises in several sectors: food, household goods, transport-energy, services with leisure and hotels.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 2% y/y the prior month to 3.2% y/y. Trend may increase further over the coming months, before declining next year.


UK: PPI Input prices (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 0.8%)

  • Changes in prices have slowed down from the prior month but remained firm due to higher prices in fuels, material and manufactured goods.
  • Yearly trend has increased further from 10.4% y/y to 11%.


UK: PPI Output prices (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.6%)

  • While food prices have declined over the month, energy and manufactured goods prices remained on a sustained monthly change.
  • Yearly trend has increased further, from 5.1% y/y to 5.9% y/y.


Eurozone: Industrial production (July): 1.5% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.3%)

  • While production in energy has declined, the rebound in activity was driven by capital goods and non-durable consumer goods sectors over the month.
  • The rebound in capital goods production has pointed to first signals of some easing in disruption in the chain supply, but more progress is still needed.


France: CPI (Aug.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Strong monthly rise confirmed in August inflation, due to rising prices for food, clothes and energy sectors.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 1.5% y/y the prior month to 2.4% y/y.


Italy: CPI (Aug.): 0.2% m/m (prior: -1%)

  • Prices were stronger over the month for energy, transport and leisure, while they have declined for clothes.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 1% y/y prior month to 2.5% y/y.


Poland: CPI (Aug.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

  • While monthly prices have declined on clothes and household’s equipment goods, rises were driven up by prices of energy, transport, leisure and housing sectors.
  • Yearly trend has been confirmed up from 5% y/y prior month to 5.5% y/y.
mardi 14 septembre
US inflation came lower than expected in Aug.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Aug.): 100.1 vs 99 expected (prior: 99.7)

  • The sentiment has regained somewhat over the month; opinions have improved on prices, capex, future sales and on compensation (higher wages); on the opposite, sentiment has weakened on ability to fulfill orders and on future earnings.
  • Shortages in labor and rising costs seemed to put a cap on future sales and inventories rebuilding, but confidence was slightly more positive and the index still at decent level.


US: CPI (Aug.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Core inflation: 0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month.
  • Inflation monthly change came lower than expected. Despite rising prices of energy and new autos, prices have declined (used cars) or have shown moderate monthly changes (food, leisure) in several sectors; housing rents remained on regular trend (0.3% m/m).
  • Yearly trend has moderated from 5.4% y/y the prior month to 5.3% y/y, and from 4.3% to 4% y/y for core inflation.
  • Sectors that have benefited from the reopening process and surging demand have shown some moderation in prices, which could fuel the Fed' preferred scenario of a "transitory" rise in inflation. Upside risks could remain due to labor, shortages in industry and rising costs.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (July): 4.6% as expected (prior: 4.7%)

  • Claimant count rate: 5.4 % after 5.6% the prior month; jobless claims: -58.6 k after -48.9 k prior month.
  • 3-month employment was up by 183 k (199 k expected) after 95 k
  • Momentum remained strong in labor ahead of the end in September of support measures; it looks possible that a tight labor to remain in place even after the end of the support.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (July): 8.3% y/y vs 8.2% expected (prior: 8.8%)

  • Trend has slowed down on base effects; by sector, increase in wages has moderated notably in construction and leisure sectors after strong rebound over the period April-June.
  • The statistic Office has estimated the underlying wage growth, besides base effects and composition changes, up in a 3.5%-5%y/y range, less worrying in terms of inflation risks.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Aug.): 0.7% m/m (prior: 0.5%)

  • Import prices were up by 1% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month; producer prices were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
  • Rises in imported goods were only partly passed through to producer prices.
  • Yearly trend in prices has accelerated further, from 3.3% y/y the prior month to 4.4% y/y.


Sweden: CPI (Aug.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Price change has accelerated over the month due to prices of clothes, household goods, housing and leisure sectors.
  • Ex energy inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after being flat the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.7% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y.


France: Business sentiment (Bank of France) (Aug.): 104 vs 105 expected (prior: 105)

  • Business sentiment has marginally eased from the prior month; opinions have weakened on future production but remained constructive on orders.


Spain: CPI (Aug.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.8%)

  • Prices have rebounded in housing and leisure sectors, while being flat or moderate in other sectors.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 2.9% y/y the prior month to 3.3% y/y.
vendredi 10 septembre
US PPI still on a rising trend

US: PPI (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1%)

  • Prices remained on sustained trend; food and trade services have strongly increased over the past months.
  • Core prices were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 7.8% y/y to 8.3% y/y. Core PPIs were up by 6.3% y/y after 6.1% y/y the prior month.


US: Wholesale inventories (July): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Inventories have been rebuilt in several sectors over the month, except for autos and computers. Sales were up by 2% m/m after 2.3% m/m the prior month.


UK: Industrial production (July): 1.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.7%)

  • Manufacturing production was flat over the month after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • Activity has shown divergence across sectors, through a rebound in energy and production of durables while other sectors have shown contraction over the month.
  • Separately, monthly GDP proxy was up by a mere 0.1% m/m after 1% the prior month.


Germany: CPI (Aug.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Final estimate has shown moderate monthly change; several sectors have shown flat or lower monthly changes such as food, clothes, leisure and education after a sharp increase the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has continued to rise, up by 3.4% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month; note that on national index calculation, inflation was up by 3.9% y/y after 3.8% y/y the prior month.


France: Industrial production (July): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

  • Production in manufacturing sector was up by 0.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
  • Despite a strong monthly rebound, details have shown mixed picture across sectors: production was down in energy and autos while it has rebounded in transport ex autos and food sectors.


Spain: Industrial production (July): -1.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1%)

  • The detailed picture has shown diverging situation across sectors over the month; production has reversed from strong rebound to contraction on consumer goods, while it has contracted further in capital goods; trend remained positive for intermediary goods.


Norway: CPI (Aug.): 0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • Monthly rises in housing and leisure sectors have been more than balanced by declining monthly prices for food, clothes, household goods and transport sectors.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 3% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y. Core inflation was down by 0.6% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month) and up by 1% y/y (1.1% y/y prior month).


Italy: Industrial production (July): 0.8% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1%)

  • Production remained sustained over the month; except production of consumer durable goods, production has rebounded further in all other sectors over the month.


Brazil: Retail sales (July): 1.1% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: -2.1% revised from -2.3%)

  • Sales have recovered after large fall in the previous month, being highly volatile in past quarters.
  • The rebound was mainly driven by auto sales, household personal goods and clothes.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 12% (prior: 10.6%)

  • Unemployed people have strongly rebounded over the month.
jeudi 09 septembre
ECB meeting: lower PEPP purchases, but not a tapering Lagarde said

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept. 4): 310k vs 335k expected (prior: 345k revised from 340k)

  • Continuing claims: 2783 k after 2805 k the prior week.


ECB meeting: as expected, slower purchases under PEPP

  • The “Lady is not tapering”, Lagarde said.
  • As widely expected, and mentioned by M. Lane, the ECB has decided to reduce it monthly purchases under the PEPP program as financial conditions look favorable.
  • In Q1, due to pandemic and tight financial conditions due to rising bond yields, the ECB decided in March to increase from EUR 60 to EUR 80 bn its purchases under the PEPP.
  • Now, the ECB has adopted a more constructive growth scenario and pointed towards improving growth, expecting a strong Q3, ease monetary conditions and vaccination has accelerated.
  • The ECB decided to reduce its purchases (“a moderately lower pace”) after Q2 and Q3 sustained purchases. Nevertheless, the statement missed to mention the new amount of the purchases; the consensus is betting on a EUR 70 bn, which should be slightly higher than in Q1, but sufficiently lower than in Q2-Q3 to satisfy all governors; this decision was unanimous.
  • This decision points more on the flexibility of the PEPP program (quarterly revised based on economic and markets situation) than on a real tapering decision comparable to the Fed.
  • Pressures will be on the next Dec. meeting as Lagarde promised official decisions regarding the future of the PEPP, supposed to end in March 22, but also regarding TLTROs. Hawkish members will be very active to end temporary supports while the consensus expects potential increase in purchases via the regular APP plan (from current EUR 20 bn to 40 bn). At this point of time, the result of the next December meeting seems open to different scenarios, more than the consensus is betting on.
  • In Q&A, Lagarde put the focus on inflation, mentioning upside risk scenario: if bottlenecks in industry remain in place and if wage accelerates, inflation could be more persistent than expected. The central ECB scenario still favors a transitory inflation.
  • Lagarde did not explain further how long the period between the end of QE could be and the first rates hike. She also remained vague on Lane’s idea, mentioning that the purchases could be adapted regarding net issuances according to different period.
  • The ECB’s economic scenario has been revised up: GDP growth: 5% (from 4.6%) for 2021, 4.6% for 2022, 2.1 % for 2023; CPI: 2.2% for 2021, 1.7% for 2022, 1.5% for 2023; medium- term inflation remains well below the 2% inflation target.


UK: RICS house price balance (Aug.): 73% vs 75% expected (prior: 77% revised from 79%)

  • Sentiment in housing has decreased further, while the index remained at high level.
  • For second month, opinions have decreased on prices, new buyers and ongoing sales; ratio of sales over stocks has regularly declined over the past two months.


Germany: Trade Balance (July): 18.1bn EUR vs 14.6bn expected (prior: 16.2bn revised from 16.3bn)

  • Trade surplus has increased over the month thanks to declining imports (-3.8% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month); export performances remained limited, up by 0.5% m/M after 1.3% m/m prior month.
  • Current account surplus has decreased from EUR 22.6 bn the prior month to EUR 17.6 bn.


Brazil: CPI (Aug.): 0.87% m/m vs 0.71% expected (prior: 0.96%)

  • Prices have accelerated further from the prior month due to stronger prices for food, clothes and transport (IPCA index). Yearly trend has accelerated from 8.99% y/y the prior month to 9.68% y/y.
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Expertise 08.09.2021

Asian lockdown resists reopening

Asian markets are being slow to emerge from lockdown, despite the rest of the world gradually opening up its economies again. The reasons for this have much to do with low vaccination rates, but also with governance. A growth gap between developed and emerging markets is beginning to appear.