Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan. 31): 231k vs 212k expected (prior: 209k)

• Continuing claims: 1844 k after 1819 k the prior week.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Dec.): 6542k vs 7250k expected (prior: 6928k revised from 7146k)

• Demand for jobs has sharply declined and came lower than expected. Job openings have decreased in retail-transport, business services and education-health sectors; on the opposite, they increased for leisure-hospitality and the public sectors.
• Hirings have increased (from 5121 prior month to 5293), mainly driven by the trade-transport and leisure sectors.
• Separations and quitters have increased over the month.
• Ther are still large swings in demand for jobs over past months and across sectors. This could point to ongoing fragilities in labor.

UK: The BoE left key rates unchanged at 3.75%

• The vote was tight 5-4, with dissenters in favor of a 25 bp cut.
• Growth outlook has been revised down for 2026 from 1.25% to 0.9% as well as 2027, from 1.6% to 1.5%.
• Inflation is expected to go back to 2% in April.
• An easing bias has been officially mentioned, in favor of new cuts in the next meetings, in line with our scenario.

The ECB kept rates unchanged as expected at 2%.

• The statement was slightly more positive on growth, but risks remained large and could impact global demand.
• Risks look now globally balanced; this was source of debate in the Committee about risks on growth versus risks on inflation. Nevertheless, Lagarde mentioned that inflation is “in a good place”, but pointing to still different contribution from sectors; the bank expects slower wage growth in parallel in order to be more comfortable on the inflation pattern.
• The low inflation pattern (1.7% y/y in Jan.) was already integrated in the ECB forecasts and was not a surprise.
• The ECB has discussed about the strength of the euro but mentioned it is already integrated in its forecasts.
• The ECB is in favor of a strong international EUR, but more progress must be made regarding liquidity in the repo market.
• Ahead of the next EU summit, the ECB sent a check list to EU leaders of the main reforms to implement to strengthen the euro area.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Dec.): -0.5% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Purchases of goods were down by 1.2% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Despite improving confidence, sales remained volatile and on a moderate trend (1.3% y/y).

France: Industrial production (Dec.): -0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 0.8% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.
• Within sectors, transport production was down due to aircraft, and utilities also down over the month; production in autos and food sectors was on rebound over the month.

Germany: Factory orders (Dec.): 7.8% m/m vs -2.2% expected (prior: 5.7% revised from 5.6%)

• Domestic orders were up by 10.7% m/m after 6.4% m/m; a strong rebound has been shown since past October.
• Foreign orders were up by 5.6% m/m after 5.2% m/m the prior month.
• Orders for intermediate and capital goods have shown a strong rebound while they have contracted for consumer goods.
• Domestic orders are on a strong recovery which bodes well for growth in German industry.

US: ISM Services (Jan.): 53.8 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.8 revised from 54.4)

• Unchanged from the December's level, which was the highest since October 2024.
• The composition of the report was a bit more mixed, with a pickup in business activity but softer new orders (to 53.1 from 56.5) and employment only just in expansion mode (down to 50.3 from 51.7).
• Prices paid rose to a 3-month high (66.6).
• According to the ISM, there was more commentary on tariff impacts and uncertainty.
• This report is consistent with solid GDP growth in Q1.

US: Services PMI (Jan. F.): 52.7 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 52.5)

• The services PMI was revised slightly upward from the preliminary release.

US: ADP Employment change (Jan.): 22k vs 45k expected (prior: 37k revised from 41k)

• Job creation remained weak and prior month’s figures were revised down.
• Job creation stagnated among small-sized firms, rose by 41 k in medium-sized firms and declined by 18k in large companies over the month.
• The bulk of job creation came from the services sector (+22k), while the industrial sector lagged far behind (+1k).
• These figures underscore persistent fragilities in the US labor market.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Jan.): 51.6 vs 51.9 expected (prior: 52.4)

• Final confidence in services has decreased more than expected over the month.
• Sentiment has decreased on new orders, backlog of orders while employment remained modestly positive; costs and selling prices were on the rise.
• By country, the index has decreased in all major countries, except Italy (up from 51.5 to 52.9); the sharpest fall was seen in Spain (53.5 after 57.1) and it slightly decreased in Germany and France; the French index passed below 50 to 48.4.

UK: Services PMI (Jan.): 54 vs 54.3 expected (prior: 51.4)

• The final data have confirmed last month’s rebound in sentiment, but the recover was slightly weaker than initially estimated.
• New orders have increased further from the prior month, and exports have improved. Sentiment around employment has deteriorated over the month.
• Costs and selling prices were on the rise over the month.

Eurozone: PPI (Dec.): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)

• Prices of energy have plummeted (-1.2% m/m), while prices of intermediate and durable consumer goods were up 0.3% m/m.
• The yearly trend has declined from -1.4% y/y prior month to -2.1% y/y.

Italy: CPI (Jan.): -1% m/m vs -1.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a large monthly fall in prices, probably due to energy prices.
• Inflation has declined from 1.2% y/y to 1.0% y/y.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Jan.): 1.7% y/y as expected (prior: 1.9%)

• Inflation was down 0.5% m/m (after 0.2% m/m) according to the preliminary data.
• The monthly decline was driven by falling prices for goods (-2.4% m/m) and services (-0.3% m/m), while energy prices were up 0.7% m/m and food prices up 0.9% m/m.
• Inflation has fallen below 2%, helped by a sharp decline in energy prices (-4.1% y/y). Food (2.7% y/y) and service (3.2% y/y) inflation remains high, while prices of goods stay on a moderate trend (0.4% y/y).

France: CPI (Jan.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a sharp fall in monthly inflation; good prices were down by 1.9% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month) and services were flat (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Food prices (0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month) and energy (0.6% m/m after -1.6% m/m prior month) remained sustained over the month.
• The yearly trend has declined from 0.7% y/y prior month to 0.4% y/y; this was helped by a large fall in energy (-7.8% y/y) and good prices (-1.2% y/y).

Turkey: CPI (Jan.): 4.84% m/m vs 4.30% expected (prior: 0.89%)

• Price have reaccelerated for several items: a rebound in monthly prices of food, health, transport, education and leisure over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 30.89% y/y to 30.65% y/y; core inflation has declined from 31.08% y/y to 29.8% y/y.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 52.4 vs 52 expected (prior: 51.8)

• Final data were higher than in first estimate and pointed to further rebound in industrial activity.
• Opinions have improved on production, more modestly in new orders, thanks to inventory rebuilding. Views on employment were positive, while exports remained weak.
• Costs and prices remained on the rise.

US: ISM Manufacturing (Jan.): 52.6 vs 48.5 expected (prior: 47.9)

• After several months of sluggish sentiment and below 50 index, business sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month.
• The rebound was driven by higher new orders, production, and new export orders to a lesser extent.
• Views on employment and inventories have slightly increased while prices paid were also on the rise.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 49.5 vs 49.4 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Momentum has improved but details offered mix picture across countries.
• Sentiment has regained on production and improved on new orders, but index remained just below 50. Nevertheless, opinions remained weak on new exports. Costs were on the rise, due to energy and metal prices, but not reflected in selling prices and impacting margins.
• PMI has improved in Germany, France and Italy over the month, but weakened in Spain (index down from 49.6 prior month to 49.2).

Germany: Retail sales (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.6%)

• Sales have stabilized after past month fall.
• Sales have regained for autos and food but remained in contraction for pharma, IT goods and internet sales.

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 48.8 vs 49.1 expected (prior: 48.5)

• Business sentiment has slightly regained over the month, thanks to slightly higher new orders, but index remained below 50.

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 56 (prior: 55.4 revised from 55.3)

• Business sentiment has increased further and reached levels seen in 2018.
• In details, picture is mixed over the month, but all sub-indices remained well above the 50 level: sentiment gained further on new orders, domestic orders and employment, while it has decreased over the month for production and exports.

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 48.8 vs 47.1 expected (prior: 46.4 revised from 45.8)

• Business sentiment has rebounded after the fall the prior month.
• Sentiment has rebounded on production (index at 50) and backlog of orders, but decreased on inventories and prices, while opinions remained stable on employment.
• In parallel, services PMI has rebounded from 51.4 prior month to 53.8; opinions have regained on activity, new orders, and costs and prices while it decreased on employment.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 51.8 vs 51.6 expected (prior: 50.6)

• Business sentiment has gained further over the month; opinions have regained on new orders, production and exports, as well as demand to rebuild inventories.
• Opinions remained low on employment, particularly in intermediate and consumer sectors.

UK: Nationwide house prices (Jan.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4%)

• Prices were up by 1% y/y after 0.6% y/y the prior month.
• While activity in housing remained low, affordability has improved, but it was mainly centered on London area.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 48.1 (prior: 48.9)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions on new orders have also decreased in parallel.