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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

jeudi 23 mai
US-UK-Eurozone: improving business confidence in manufacturing but mixed picture in services

US: Initial jobless claims (May 18): 215k vs 220k expected (prior: 223k revised from 222k)

  • Continuing claims: 1794 k after 1786 k the prior week.


US: Manufacturing PMI (May): 50.9 vs 49.9 expected (prior: 50)

  • Business confidence has increased further thanks to improving opinions on production, new orders, and employment.
  • Pressures from increase in prices were back in place with the rebound of the activity and higher costs of raw materials and wages.


US: Services PMI (May): 54.8 vs 51.2 expected (prior: 51.3)

  • A strong improvement in sentiment due to rising new business and employment over the month.
  • Rising prices were due to rising wages and labour costs.


US: New home sales (April): 634k vs 678k expected (prior: 665k revised from 693k)

  • Sales have decreased over the month in 3 districts over total of 4.
  • Inventories have increased over the month while prices (median) have decreased by 1.4% m/m, but were up by 3.9% y/y.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (May): 51.3 vs 49.5 expected (prior: 49.1)

  • Business sentiment has rebounded over the month thanks to rising production and new orders; exports have also recovered. The index for new orders has jumped from 48.1 past month to 51.8.
  • Input costs and labour costs have moderated and selling prices remain limited-good news for inflation.


UK: PMI Services (May): 52.9 vs 54.7 expected (prior: 55)

  • Index has decreased on services after sustained rise the prior month. Demand of services looked more cautious regarding political situation and constraints from high interest rates.
  • For the first time, these lower-than-expected data could remove some concerns of overheating risks in services after a too modest decline in services (yearly trend) in recent CPI release. These PMI levels look more sustainable.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (May): 47.4 vs 46.1 expected (prior: 45.7)

  • Business sentiment has regained more than expected after a slight decrease the prior month; sentiment on new orders has increased but global index and this related to new orders remained below 50.
  • Indices have increased for both France and Germany according to first estimates.


Eurozone: PMI Services (May): 53.3 vs 53.6 expected (prior: 53.3)

  • Despite improving new business, the total index remained unchanged from the prior month in first estimates.
  • The index has increased further in Germany, while it has decreased in France (from 51.3 to 49.4).
  • Both manufacturing and services indices validate the expected progressive exit from stagnation/recession seen past quarters.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (May): -14.3 vs -14.2 expected (prior: -14.7)

  • Consumer confidence has slightly improved from the month; no details available in this first estimate.


Poland: Retail sales (April): -1.8% m/m vs -1.1% expected (prior: 14.2%)

  • Sales in real terms have decreased over the month after the surge in food, auto and clothes the prior month.
  • Sales of clothes and household goods remained on positive trend.
  • Yearly trend was up by 4.1% y/y after 6.1% y/y the prior month.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (May): 80.5 (prior: 80.5)

  • Index remained stable despite improving opinions regarding the future economy (activity and unemployment).
mercredi 22 mai
US: falling existing home sales; UK: declining inflation but resilient services

US: Existing home sales (April): 4.14M vs 4.23M expected (prior: 4.22M revised from 4.19M)

  • Sales have declined over the month driven by a fall by 2.1% m/m of single-family houses while sales of condos were flat.
  • Inventories have globally increased for all categories.
  • Median prices were up by 5.7% y/y after 4.8% y/y the prior month.


UK: CPI (April): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inflation was higher than expected due to a rebound in several services over the month.
  • Prices for energy and household goods were down over the month; good prices were down by 1.2% m/m but services were up by 1.5% m/m.
  • The rebound in services were driven by several sectors showing large monthly rebound, reflecting probably the rise in minimum wage: housing, transport, communication, holiday packages and travel, medical and education.
  • The yearly trend has declined further from 3.2% y/y the prior month to 2.3% y/y (2.1% was expected) and for core inflation from 4.2% to 3.9% y/y; services have just slightly decreased from 6% to 5.9% y/y.
  • As seen in the US, services could be resilient as demand for travel-leisure is cyclically better oriented, but disinflation trend is in place, and this could enable the BoE to begin to cut by next June or later in Aug. if BoE wants the confirmation of a real slowdown in service prices.


UK: PPI Input prices (April): 0.6% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.1%)

  • Rise in input prices was due to the rebound in material prices.
  • Yearly trend has regained from -2.5% y/y the prior month to -1.6% y/y.


UK: PPI Output prices (April): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Despite firm rises in prices of food and energy over the month, output prices have shown limited monthly rise.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 0.7% y/y the prior month to 1.1% y/y.


Poland: Industrial production (April): -2.2% m/m vs -2.9% expected (prior: 3.9% revised from 3.6%)

  • Activity has contracted over the month after a large rebound the prior month; all sectors except water were down over the month.
  • Yearly trend has turned better, being up by 7.9% y/y after -5.6% y/y the prior month.


Sweden: Unemployment rate (April): 8.5% vs 8.4% expected (prior: 8.6%)

  • Unemployed has marginally decreased over the month.
mardi 21 mai
German producer prices drop more than expected

Germany: PPI (Apr): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • The rise in monthly producer prices was primarily driven by increases in Fuels and Heating oil (both up 2.5% m/m), while Energy saw a slight decrease of 0.1% m/m.
  • Annually, prices fell by 3.3%, following a 2.9% decline in the previous month, and contrary to market forecasts of a 3.2% drop.
  • This marked the tenth consecutive month of producer deflation, largely due to an 8.2% drop in energy costs, with natural gas plummeting 18.0% and electricity falling 14.0%.
  • In addition, intermediate goods prices declined by 3.1%, driven down by significant drops in paperboard and paper products (-7.7%), metals (-5.8%), and basic chemicals (-6.6%).
  • Conversely, non-durable consumer goods prices rose by 0.3%, durable consumer goods prices increased by 1.0%, and capital goods prices advanced by 2.4%, mainly due to a 2.8% rise in machinery prices and a 1.7% increase in motor vehicle prices.
vendredi 17 mai
Eurozone core inflation down in April

Eurozone: CPI (April F.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • CPI y/y: 2.4% as expected (prior: 2.4%)
  • Core CPI y/y: 2.7% as expected (prior: 2.9%)
  • The final release confirmed that headline inflation remained at 2.4% in April and that core inflation declined to 2.7% from 2.9% in March.
  • Importantly, services price inflation fell to 3.7% after standing at 4.0% for five months.
  • Headline and core inflation should continue to drift downward in the coming months, and the ECB is very likely to cut rates in June.



jeudi 16 mai
US: weak housing starts for single-family houses and flat industrial production

US: Initial jobless claims (May 11): 222k vs 220k expected (prior: 232k revised from 231k)

  • Continuing claims: 1794 k after 1781 k the prior week.


US: Housing starts (April): 1360k vs 1421k expected (prior: 1287k revised from 1321k)

  • Data have rebounded from the prior month but remained well below consensus expectations.
  • The monthly rebound was mainly driven by multi-family houses while single-family houses have modestly decreased (from 1035 k prior month to 1031 k).
  • Building permits have decreased for both categories, from 1485 k in aggregated terms to 1440 k.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): 4.5 vs 7.8 expected (prior: 15.5)

  • Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions have decreased on new orders, shipments and on prices paid.
  • The 6-month index has also decreased on lower new orders and prices paid; index remained constructive on shipments and employment.


US: Industrial production (April): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.4%)

  • Manufacturing production was down by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month due to a large fall in auto and machinery production.
  • Activity in utility remained strong up by 2.8% m/m after 1.6% m/m prior month.


Italy: CPI (April): 0.5% m/m (prior: 1.2%)

  • Over the moth, prices of clothes and leisure services have accelerated while prices of electricity and communication were down.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 1.2% y/y the prior month to 0.9% y/y.


Norway: GDP Mainland (Q1-24): 0.2% q/q as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Activity has expanded thanks to manufacturing and services for oil industry.
  • By expenditure, consumption and investment were down over the quarter while public consumption was up.
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