US: Employment cost index (Q2-22): 1.3% q/q as expected (prior: 1.4%)
- Wages were up by 1.4% q/q after 1.2% in Q1-22 and benefits up by 1.2% q/q after 1.8% in Q1.
US: Personal income (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)
- Wages were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month.
- Disposable income was up by 0.7% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month. In real terms over the period, disposable income was down by 0.3% m/m after 0% the prior month.
US: Personal spending (June): 1.1% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)
- Purchases were sustained: up by 1.7% m/m for non-durable goods (0.4% m/m the prior month), +0.77% m/m for services (0.79% m/m prior month) and 1.5% for durable goods (-2.9% m/m prior month).
- Saving ratio was down from 5.5% the prior month to 5.1%.
US: Core PCE (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Inflation remained sustained due to strong rise in energy, food and other goods and services. The headline inflation was up by 1% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month.
- Core inflation was up by 4.8% y/y after 4.7% y/y the prior month (headline PCE up by 6.8% y/y after 6.3% y/y prior month).
US: Chicago PMI (July): 52.1 vs 55 expected (prior: 56)
- Sentiment has decreased on production, new orders, and inventories; prices remained on the rise as well as employment.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (July): 51.5 vs 51.1 expected (prior: 50)
- Consumer confidence has finally slightly improved form the prior month.
- Opinions on current situation have regained more than in the first estimates from the prior month; expectations have marginally declined from the prior month.
- Inflation expectations (5-10y) have marginally declined from 3.1%y/y zo 2.9% (2.8% in the first estimates); inflation expectations at 1y have marginally decreased from 5.3% to 5.2%y/y.
- Consumers were slightly less negative in final data compared to the first estimates notably on current situation.
- Views have marginally improved on personal finances and on business and were less negative than in first estimate on future business.
- People expect interest rates and gas prices to continue to rise over the next 12 months, and opinions on the question "government doing a good job fighting inflation and unemployment" have continued to decrease.
- Willingness to buy house, cars and major appliances have regained from the prior month but remained below May-April level.
France: Consumer spending (June): 0.2% m/m vs -0.9% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.7%)
- Consumption was better than expected, but prior month data were revised down.
- Sales were sustained on energy and autos but have fallen for clothes and food. A high volatility and sector rotation is under process as households face high inflation and low confidence.
France: GDP (Q2-22): 0.5% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Growth was stronger than expected but details by sectors offered a more mixed picture.
- Consumption was down by 0.2% q/q (-1.3% q/q in Q1), with large fall in goods (-1.3% q/q) but a strong rise in services (1.5% q/q); public consumption also down by 0.2% q/q..
- On the opposite, trend remained positive on capex (up by 0.5% q/q as in Q1), thanks to firms’ investment: this sector driven by IT spending and services.
- Exports remained positive (0.8% q/q after 1.6% q/q, thanks to services), but imports have contracted (-0.6% q/q after 1.2% q/q); net trade contribution was more positive at 0.4 pp.
- Inventories were on the rise, contributing by 0.1 pp in Q2.
- While domestic demand was globally flat over the quarter, the good surprise came from net contributions from trade and inventories.
Spain: GDP (Q2-22): 1.1% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- GDP growth has rebounded thanks to consumption, up by 3.2% q/q after -2% q/q in Q1-22, housing; on the negative side, public spending, investment in equipment and productivity have contracted; imports were firmer (4.6% q/q), but exports remained on moderate pace (1.6% q/q).
Spain: CPI (July): -0.5% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: 1.9%)
- Yearly trend has slightly accelerated from 10% y/y the prior month to 10.8% y/y on preliminary data.
Italy: GDP (Q2-22): 1% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Activity was firmer than expected thanks to domestic demand, services in particular, and to the government support related to the EC Recovery Fund. (no details available in GDP first estimates).
Italy: CPI (July): -1.1% m/m vs -0.9% expected (prior: 1.2%)
- Monthly changes were negative over the month due to large fall in prices of clothes and communication over the month according to first estimates. On the opposite, transport and leisure prices were on sustained monthly rises.
- The yearly trend was quite unchanged at 8.4% y/y after 8.5% y/y the prior month.
Germany: GDP (Q2-22): 0% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.2%)
- Growth was flat over the quarter, but data were revised un for Q1. No details available in the first estimates.
- By sector, firmer activity in services has faced slower growth in industry and construction over the quarter.
Germany: Unemployment rate (July): 5.4% as expected (prior: 5.3%)
- Unemployed has increased by 48 k after 133 k in the prior month. Vacancies remained high but eased somewhat from the prior month.
Eurozone: GDP (Q2-22): 0.7% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.6%)
- According to first estimates, GDP was flat in Germany and declined in some Eastern European countries and Portugal, while it was more sustained in France, Spain and Italy.
Eurozone: CPI estimate (July): 8.9% y/y vs 8.7% expected (prior: 8.6%)
- First estimates have shown rising prices of food and services over the month, while prices of manufactured goods were down (discount effects).
UK: M4 (June): 4.1% y/y (prior: 5.1%)
- M4 lending growth pace has moderated from 4% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y.
- Monetary aggregates have slowed down; in terms of lending, credit cards to consumers have accelerated, while credit to housing has declined over the month; credit to firms has increased over the month.
Switzerland: KOF (July): 90.1 vs 95.2 expected (prior: 95.2 revised from 96.9)
- Business sentiment has significantly declined over the month; the index was back to the levels seen in Q1-20 and in 2018-19.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (June): 7.7% as expected (prior: 7.8%)
- Unemployment rate remained low but based on non-seasonal the ratio has increased over the prior two months.
Norway: Unemployment rate (July): 1.7% (prior: 1.6%)
- Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.
Poland: CPI (July): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.5%)
- Monthly change came jst below expectations as fuel prices have declined by 2.6% m/m after 9.4% m/m the prior month.
- Yearly trend remained unchanged at 15.5% y/y.