Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Housing starts (Aug): 1307k vs 1365k expected (prior: 1429k revised from 1428k)

• US housing starts fell sharply in August, dropping 8.5% as a glut of unsold homes dampened builders' enthusiasm.
• Building permits, a key indicator of future construction, declined 3.7% hitting their lowest level in five years. Single-family permits also slid to their weakest point since March 2023.
• The housing market has slowed in recent years, with new home inventories reaching levels unseen since the mid-2000s. While a recent dip in borrowing costs could provide some relief for buyers, the oversupply of homes could weigh on construction activity in the months ahead.

UK: CPI (Aug): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• UK inflation held steady in August, with CPI rising 3.8% y/y, matching July’s figure and market expectations.
• Core CPI eased to 3.6% y/y, down from 3.8% in July, aligning with forecasts.
• Food inflation climbed to 4.8 y/y, its sixth consecutive monthly rise, while services inflation, the main driver of price pressures, slowed to 4.7% y/y from 5.0% in July.
• Goods inflation edged up slightly to 2.8% y/y from 2.7%.
• Housing costs, particularly rents, remain a key contributor to services inflation, with rents rising 4.4% y/y in August, a slight dip from July’s 4.5%. This moderation reflects earlier price surges and easing interest rates.
• Bank of England is likely to hold rates at 4% through year-end, as inflation remains stubbornly above target, with persistent pressures from the services sector.

Eurozone: CPI (Aug F): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• The final reading came in at 0.1% in August, below the initial 0.2% forecast, following stagnation in July.
• Annual inflation was revised down from 2.1% to 2.0%.

US: Retail sales (Aug.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

• Ex auto and gasoline: 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)
• Retail sales again grew solidly in August, with nine out of 13 categories posting increases, led by online retailers, clothing stores and sporting goods. Also, spending at restaurants and bars rose by 0.7% after a decline in July.
• Even if these data are in nominal terms (so positively impacted by higher prices), this report adds to evidence that households are still spending despite a depressed sentiment and worries about the job market. One of the reasons is probably that many firms have refrained from rising prices for fear that consumption would suffer.

US: Import price index (Aug.): 0.3% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.4%)

• Y/y: 0.0% as expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.2%)
• Excluding all fuels, import prices were up 0.4% in August.
• Prices rose for consumer goods (+0.7%), capital goods (+0.5%), industrial supplies (+0.4%), and autos (+0.2%) but declined for food and beverages (-2.1%).

US: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.1%)

• The slight rise in industrial production reflects modest gains in manufacturing activity (+0.2% m/m after -0.1% in July) with increases in motor vehicles and parts, non-metallic mineral products and textiles.

US: NAHB housing market index (Sept.): 32 vs 33 expected (prior: 32)

• Despite lower mortgage rates, sentiment among US homebuilders remains close to the lowest levels in more than a decade.
• On a positive note, the measure of sales expectations in the next six months rose to the highest level since March.

US: Business inventories (July): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Business sales increased by 1% in July.

Eurozone: Industrial production (July): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -1.3%)

• Industrial activity has regained after a contraction in the prior month (revised lower).
• The rebound was driven by capital goods (1.3% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month) and by durable consumer goods (1.1% m/m after -0.5% m/m prior month).
• Production of energy was down 2.9% m/m after +1.4% m/m prior month.

Germany: Zew (Sept.): 37.3 vs 25 expected (prior: 34.7)

• Expectations have regained more than expected over the month, but sentiment on current situation has decreased (index at -76.4 after -68.4 the prior month).
• Sentiment improved slightly across sectors, with less pessimism reported for autos, chemicals, and steel compared to the previous month.

Italy: CPI (Aug.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -1%)

• The final data confirmed the initial estimate, revealing yet another monthly decline in prices
• Prices were down for clothes and housing but up for the leisure sector.
• The annual growth rate edged down slightly, slipping from 1.7% last month to 1.6%

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (July): 4.7% as expected (prior: 4.7%)

• The number of unemployed has increased over the period. Claimant count (Aug.) has increased from 4.3% to 4.4%.
• 3M/3M change in employment has moderated (232 k after 238k the prior period); temporary workers have decreased while vacancies have increased over the period.
• Jobless claims (Aug.) have regained, being up 17.4k after -33k the prior month.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (July): 4.7% y/y as expected (prior: 4.6%)

• The trend in wages remained stable in services, up 4.7% y/y.
• Wages have reaccelerated in the manufacturing sector (4.8% y/y after 4.6% prior month); they have moderated for construction and retail-leisure sectors.
• Labor and wage growth remained on a regular downward trend.

US: Empire manufacturing (Sept.): -8.7 vs 5 expected (prior: 11.9)

• Business confidence has reversed over the month on falling orders, shipments, employment and hours worked; prices paid have also decreased.
• The 6-month index has only moderately decreased over the month, but for the second month since the peak in index seen in July. Opinions on capex and employment has decreased, while views on future new orders remained surprisingly positive in this environment.

Germany: Wholesale price (Aug.): -0.6% m/m (prior: -0.1%)

• Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.5% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y.

Poland: CPI (Aug.): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Final data have pointed to flat index over the month; food prices were down over the month, as well as energy prices, household equipment and clothes; only communication costs were on the rise over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined to 2.9% y/y after 3.1% y/y prior month.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Aug.): -0.6% m/m (prior: -0.2%)

• Producer prices were down by 0.8% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month) and import prices also down by 0.4% m/m (+0.1% m/m the prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined more for producer prices, down by 1.3% y/y (0% y/y prior month) and has just stabilized at 2.7% y/y for import prices (-2.8% y/y prior month).

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sept. Prel.): 55.4 vs 58.0 expected (prior: 58.2)

• Current conditions: 61.2 vs 62.0 expected (prior: 61.7)
• Expectations: 51.8 vs 56.2 expected (prior: 55.9)
• According to this survey, consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell in September to the lowest level since May.
• The details show rising concerns about the labor market, with more consumers worrying about personal job loss. This weighs on the economic outlook, in addition to rising prices.
• As in August, consumers expect prices to rise an annual rate of 4.8% over the next year, but they see prices rising at an annual rate of 3.9% over the next 5-10 years, a significant increase from the 3.5% expected last month.

UK: Industrial production (July): -0.9% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• IP y/y: 0.1% vs 1.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)
• The 1.3% m/m decline in manufacturing output was the main reason for this unexpected decline. Within the manufacturing sector, output in 9 out of 13 sub-sectors fell in July, with the largest negative contribution coming from computers and electronic products and pharma.
• The UK economy continues to suffer from the uncertain global trade environment and the challenging domestic fiscal outlook.