Synthèse Daily Macro
mardi, janvier 06
PMI services: weaker in the US and Eurozone, marginally firmer in the UK
US: Services PMI (Dec.): 52.5 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 54.1)
- Sentiment has decreased in services over the month, but the index remained high.
- Views have moderated on new business and demand was seen as cooling as exports were weak.
- Sentiment has decreased marginally on employment; costs were on the rise due to tariffs and prices have also increased further.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Dec.): 52.4 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 53.6)
- Business sentiment in services has decreased over the month and came lower than in first estimates but the index remained above 50.
- Sentiment has decreased in Germany, France and Italy. New orders have declined in France and related index passed below 50.
- In Spain, sentiment has strongly rebounded (from 55.6 to 57.1) thanks higher new orders.
- Domestic demand was the main driver versus falling new exports; employment has improved while costs have increased significantly.
- Composite index (manufacturing + services) remained above the 50 level for Eurozone, Germany (51.3), France and Spain at 50 for France, pointing to ongoing moderate growth.
France: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)
- A strong rebound of prices of fresh food (1.4% m/m) was more than balanced by decreasing prices for manufactured goods (-0.3% m/m) and energy prices (-1.6% m/m) according to this first estimate.
- Yearly trend has declined from 0.8% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y.
Germany: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.5%)
- According to first estimate, prices of clothes, fuels and household goods have decreased over the month while prices of services remained sustained (0.6% m/m).
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.6% y/y the prior month to 2.0% y/y.
UK: Services PMI (Dec.): 51.4 vs 52.1 expected (prior: 51.3)
- Sentiment was marginally up from the prior month, but it remained below expectations.
- Opinions on new business have strongly rebounded (52.4 after 49.8); sentiment on employment remained mixed while costs have increased further.
- Composite index has slightly decreased from 52.1 to 51.4 over the month.
lundi, janvier 05
ISM manufacturing (Dec.) lower than expected and remained below 50
US: ISM Manufacturing (Dec.): 47.9 vs 48.4 expected (prior: 48.2)
- Business confidence came lower than expected and lower than the prior month.
- Details offered a mix picture: sentiment has decreased for production and inventories, but it slightly regained for new orders (from 47.4 to 47.7), backlog of orders and employment.
- While PMI manufacturing has just slightly eased (from 52.2 to 51.8), ISM manufacturing (more export and large firms-oriented index) remained below 50 over the past months, pointing to ongoing fragilities on large exporters in manufacturing.
Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Dec.): 45.8 vs 49.6 expected (prior: 49.7)
- Business sentiment has deteriorated over the month contrary to expectations.
- All major sub-components came lower over the month such as output, prices, inventories and employment; the index was back to its Sept. level.
- Separately, the PMI services has strongly rebounded from 45.3 prior month to 52.1. All major sub-items have rebounded and were above the 50 level, except employment (up from 45.5 to 46.8).
UK: M4 (Nov.): 4.3% y/y (prior: 3.5%)
- M4 growth has accelerated to 0.8% m/m after -0.2% m/m; M4 lending was up by 4.8% y/y after 4.3% y/y prior month.
- Credit to consumer has also accelerated by 8.1% y/y after 7.5% y/y prior month.
- Mortgage approvals were up to 64.5 k after 65 k the prior month.
Turkey: CPI (Dec.): 0.89% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.87%)
- Inflation remained sustained over the month, but slightly less than expected by the consensus.
- Prices have re-accelerated for food, communication and hotels-restaurants over the month, but declined for clothes and transport.
- Yearly trend has declined from 31.07% y/y the prior month to 30.89% y/y and for core inflation from 31.65 % y/y to 31.08% y/y.
mardi, décembre 30
US: a rebound in Chicago PMI business sentiment
US: Chicago PMI (Dec.): 43.5 vs 40 expected (prior: 36.3)
- Business sentiment has regained from the prior month and from very low level.
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Oct.): 1.31% y/y vs 1.10% expected (prior: 1.39% revised from 1.36%)
- Prices were up by 0.32% m/m after 0.17% m/m prior month.
- Over 20 cities, a large range of trend in prices: districts of San Franciso and Chicago were at the top of the rise, and 10 cities offered positive trend in prices.
Spain: CPI (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)
- Flash estimates have pointed to stable monthly pace, but the yearly trend has declined from 3.2% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y.
- Lower fuel prices and moderate rise in leisure sectors have underpinned the decline in inflation trend.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (Nov.): 6% y/y (prior: 3.9% revised from 3.8%)
- Sales were up by 1% m/m after 0% m/m the prior month.
- Sales were strong for personal goods, health and in department stores over the month.
Switzerland: KOF (Dec.): 103.4 vs 101.4 expected (prior: 101.7)
- The business sentiment index finished the year at a high level, but in fact close to the index seen in Feb. (103.3).
- Sentiment has improved on production of intermediate goods, while firms remained globally cautious on orders and demand.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 8.6% (prior: 8.5%)
- Unemployed remained on a slow but regular rising trend.
lundi, décembre 29
US: a rebound in pending home sales (Nov.)
US: Pending home sales (Nov.): 3.3% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 2.4% revised from 1.9%)
- Sales have rebounded in all the 4 districts over the month. The largest rebound was seen in West district, up by 9.2% m/m after -1.4% the prior month.
- Demand exists but is still constrained by interest rates and limited inventories.
Norway: Retail sales (Nov.): 1.3% m/m (prior: 0.1%)
- Sales were boosted by discount and Black Friday event. Sales were sustained on internet and for electronics and groceries too.
mardi, décembre 23
US grew 4.3% in the third quarter
US: Durable goods orders (Oct P): -2.2% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)
- Durable goods orders fell short of expectations in October. Orders (excluding transportation) edged up by just 0.2%, slowing from September's 0.7% gain. Excluding defense, orders contracted by 1.5%, reversing a modest 0.1% rise the previous month.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (Dec): -16.8 vs -15.0 expected (prior: -16.3)
- Nonmanufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region softened in December, with declines in firm-level activity, new orders, and sales indexes, though all remained positive.
- Firms reported higher full- and part-time employment, while price pressures persisted, with the prices paid index rising further.
- Optimism about future growth at individual firms became more widespread.
US: GDP (3Q S): 4.3% q/q vs 3.3% expected (prior: 3.8%)
- The second estimate for third-quarter growth was revised up to the fastest pace in two years, driven by strong consumer spending, robust business investment, and a rebound in exports.
- Personal consumption jumped 3.5%, up from 2.5% in Q2, boosted by demand for services like healthcare and international travel. Business investment rose 2.8%, with record spending on AI-focused data centers and computer equipment.
- However, a potential government shutdown could weigh on fourth-quarter growth, though a rebound is expected in early 2026.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Dec): 89.1 vs 91.0 expected (prior: 92.9 revised from 88.7)
- US consumer confidence fell for the fifth consecutive month, weighed down by pessimism over the labor market and business conditions. While concerns about current conditions grew, optimism about the next six months remained intact.
US: Industrial production (Nov): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Dec): -7 vs -10 expected (prior: -15)