Synthèse Daily Macro

Germany: Wholesale price (April): -0.6% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.7%)

• Energy prices were down by 2.9% m/m (-2.8% m/m prior month) but non-durable goods prices were up by 0.9% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from -0.2% y/y prior month to -0.9% y/y.

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (May): 84.8 (prior: 83.9)

• Consumer confidence has improved over the month; opinions turned more positive about financial situation and unemployment but remained cautious on future economy.

Eurozone: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Final inflation data confirmed sustained rise in monthly prices.
• While energy prices were sharply down (-2.3% m/m after -1.4% m/m prior month), services were strongly on the rise (1.4% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month).
• Prices of industrial goods were up by 0.4% m/m after 1.9% m/m prior month. Core inflation was up by 1% m/m as seen in the prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable on headline inflation (2.2% y/y) but increased further for core inflation (2.7% y/y after 2.4% y/y prior month).
• The ECB should ease further next month but debate among governors will probably increase on inflation pattern given results from core inflation.

US: Housing starts (April): 1361k vs 1364k expected (prior: 1339k revised from 1324k)

• Building permits have decreased from 1481 k the prior month to 1412 k.
• Starts have increased for multifamily houses over the month but decreased further for single-family houses.
• Within permits, the two categories have decreased over the month.
• High interest rates and worries on construction costs due to uncertainties on tariffs have weighed down on final demand.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (May): 50.8 vs 53.4 expected (prior: 52.2)

• Consumer confidence has decreased over the month according to preliminary data.
• Confidence has decreased further on both current situation and expectations. Opinions have decreased on net income, present and future financial situation, business expectations while unemployment remained a concern as seen the prior month.
• Despite weakening sentiment, willingness to buy items (houses, autos) remained stable from the prior month but at weak level.
• Inflation expectations have surged again: from 6.5% y/y prior month to 7.3% y/y at 12M and from 4.4%y/y to 4.6% y/y at 5-10y.

 

France: Unemployment rate (Q1-25): 7.4% as expected (prior: 7.3%)

• Unemployed has increased over the period. The main bulk of the rise is seen in unemployment of women over the period.

 

Italy: CPI (April): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.6%)

• Final data have confirmed some moderation in monthly prices which remained sustained in absolute terms.
• Prices have strongly increased for clothes, transport, and leisure sectors while they decreased for electricity, utility, and communication.
• Yearly trend has marginally declined from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.0% y/y.

 

 

US: Initial jobless claims (May 10): 229k vs 228k expected (prior: 229k revised from 228k)

• Continuing claims: 1881 k after 1872 k prior week.

 

US: Retail sales (April): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.4%)

• Sales have moderated after a large rebound in March due to strong purchases ahead of potential rises in tariffs.
• Building material, autos and sport goods have reverted the most during the month, after strong rises seen in March due to fears of higher tariffs (notably products from China).
• Over the month, sales have contracted for gasoline stations, clothes, sport goods and autos. They remained positive for building material and on eating-drinking.
• Core sales (sales ex autos, building materials, food, and energy) were down by 0.2% m/m after a strong 0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Some slowdown is expected in Q2 consumption after the 1.8 %q/q (saar) seen in Q1-25.

 

US: Empire manufacturing (May): -9.2 vs -8 expected (prior: -8.1)

• Business sentiment was more negative than prior month and more than expected.
• Details offered mixed picture: falling sentiment on current situation but less negative on 6M horizon (6-M index at -2 after -7.4 prior month).
• On current situation, new orders have turned positive, and prices paid were on the rise, while employment and prices received have decreased.
• For the 6-month index, sentiment improved on new orders, shipments, employment but also on prices paid and received.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): -4 vs -11 expected (prior: -26.4)

• Business sentiment was better oriented after large contraction the prior month.
• Views have improved on current situation and rebounded for the 6-month index (up to 47.2 after 6.9 prior month).
• On current situation, opinions improved for new orders and employment but also for prices paid and received.
• On the 6-month index, views have rebounded for new orders, employment, and capex while opinions decreased on prices.
• On these two regional business sentiment indices, new orders have improved from the prior month.

 

US: Industrial production (April): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Production has increased for utility and energy sectors, but it was down by 0.4% m/m for manufacturing (after 0.4% m/m gain in March).
• Within manufacturing, production was driven lower by autos, computers and apparels d but remained sustained for equipment goods.

 

US: PPI (April): -0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.4%)

• Prices have decreased more than expected over the month but were revised up for the prior month (due to trade services).
• The decline in prices was largely driven by a large fall in food and a modest decrease on energy and services over the month. PPI ex food, energy, and trade (core PPI) were down by 0.1% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.4% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y, and from 3.5% to 2.9% y/y for core PPI.

 

US: NAHB housing market index (May): 34 vs 40 expected (prior: 40)

• Index has fallen due to lower present and future sales.

 

US: Business inventories (March): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inventories have increased for wholesalers by 0.4% m/m; total sales were up by 0.7% m/m.

 

UK: Industrial production (March): -0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.5%)

• Industrial activity has decreased for the manufacturing sector (-0.8% m/m after 2.4% m/m prior month) and for energy and mining sectors over the month.
• Within manufacturing, all sectors except investment good was down over the month.

 

UK: GDP (Q1-25): 0.7% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• GDP was higher than expected thanks to investment and net trade.
• Consumption was up by 0.2% q after 0.1% q; investment has strongly rebounded, up by 5.9%q after -1.9% the prior quarter; exports were up by 3.5% q after -1.9% q and net trade contribution to GDP growth was positive despite strong imports,

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (April): 0.1% m/m (prior: 0.1%)

• Production prices were up by 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month), while import prices were flat over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined to -1.8% y/y after -0.9% y/y for import prices while producer prices were flat (0.3% y/y the prior month).

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (March): 2.6% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: 1.1%)

• Production has surged on capital and durable consumer sectors over the month. This may not last and was due to a push in production and exports ahead of tariffs.

 

Eurozone: GDP (Q1-25): 0.3% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• The second estimate (wider number of countries included) has revised GDP growth lower for Q1-25.

 

France: CPI (April): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Prices were higher than expected: rises in services (1.1% m/m due to a strong rise in transport) have contributed to the monthly rise, in parallel with higher food and clothes prices; energy (oil prices) were down over the month.
• Yearly trend remained unchanged at 0.9% y/y from the prior month.

 

Germany: Wholesale price (April): -0.1% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

• Yearly trend has declined from 1.3% y/y prior month to 0.8% y/y.

 

Poland: GDP (Q1-25): 0.7% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to stronger than expected Q1 GDP growth.

 

Poland: CPI (April): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Final data have confirmed the rebound in prices, driven by food, clothes and leisure sectors. Prices of energy, transport and utility sectors have decreased over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.9% y/y prior month to 4.2% y/y.