Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q3-25): 4.9% q/q as expected (prior: 4.1%)

• Final data confirmed the high pace of productivity gains in Q3-25.
• Activity was sustained, production being up by 5.4%q after 5.2%q in Q2-25; hours worked were up modestly by 0.5% after 1% in Q2-25.
• Wage growth was up by 2.9%q after 1.1% q in Q2-25.
• Unit labor costs have decreased, down by 1.9% q after -2.9% q the prior quarter.
• The challenge is to maintain in 2026 a favorable trend in productivity and still low and contained labor costs.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan. 24): 209k vs 205k expected (prior: 210k revised from 200k)

• Continuing claims: 1827 k after 1865 k the prior week.

US: Trade balance (Nov.): -56.8 bn USD vs -44 bn expected (prior: -29.2 bn revised from -29.4 bn)

• Deficit has rebounded after an exceptional improvement the prior month.
• Exports were down by 3.6% m/m after 3% m/m the prior month; all categories of exports were down over the month.
• Imports were up by 5% m/m after -3% m/m prior month; imports of capital goods and consumer goods have sharply rebounded over the month.
• As seen for many DM countries, exports remained on a weak and volatile trend.

US: Factory orders (Nov.): 2.7% m/m vs 1.6% expected (prior: -1.2% revised from -1.3%)

• Data confirmed the positive trend on orders for capital good non-defense ex aircraft up by 0.4% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Orders for civil aircrafts have strongly rebounded over the month and drove the total rebound in factory orders.
• Shipments were down by 0.1% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month; inventories were up by 0.1% after 0% m/m the prior month.

US: Wholesale inventories (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inventories have increased for computers, machinery and pharma products; in parallel sales were firmer, up by 1.3% m/m after -0.4% m/m, and were higher for these related items.

Eurozone: M3 (Dec.): 2.8% y/y vs 3% expected (prior: 3%)

• M2 remained on stable trend, up by 3.1% y/y; M1 growth has slowed down, from 5.0% y/y prior month to 4.7% y/y.
• Credit to private sector has slowed down from 3.3% y/y to 3.0% y/y.
• Across countries, the demand for loans from corporates was the most buoyant in Greece over the month.

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Jan.): -6.8 vs -8.2 expected (prior: -8.5 revised from -9)

• Business sentiment has improved from the prior month.
• Views have regained on production, were less negative from the prior month on new orders, past production and employment.
• Sentiment has deteriorated further on exports.
• Sentiment has regained in industry at end of last year and offered a more constructive picture entering 2026.

Eurozone: Services confidence (Dec.): 7.2 vs 5.9 expected (prior: 5.8 revised from 5.6)

• Sentiment has rebounded in services; over the month, views have improved on business situation, demand and employment.
• Views were less negative in the retail sector, while they remained stable but slightly negative in the construction sector.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Dec.): -12.4 as expected (prior: -13.2)

• Views were less negative form the prior month; opinions have improved on financial situation, and trend in prices, but unemployment remained a concern and preference for saving has increased further.

Spain: Retail sales (real) (Dec.): 2.9% y/y (prior: 6%)

• Sales were down by 0.8% m/m after a 1% m/m rise the prior month.
• All sectors were negative over the month except online sales.
• After sustained growth past year, yearly comparison tends to moderate but the underlying trend remains positive.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 95.3 vs 97 expected (prior: 95.6 revised from 95.8)

• Confidence has eroded over the month but remained high. Sentiment has weakened on personal situation while views on global macro has improved.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Jan.): 103.6 (prior: 103.8)

• Sentiment has eroded in manufacturing and in construction and trade sectors over the month.

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 7.7% (prior: 8.5% revised from 8.6%)

• Unemployed has sharply decreased over the month.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Feb.): -24.1 vs -25.5 expected (prior: -26.9)

• Consumer confidence has improved after some deterioration seen over the prior month.
• Views have improved on activity, but concerns remained on inflation and preference for saving remained large.

Italy: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 96.8 vs 96.9 expected (prior: 96.6)

• Confidence has slightly increased from the prior month.
• Views were more positive on economy and financial situation.

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Jan.): 89.2 vs 89 expected (prior: 88.5 revised from 88.4)

• Business confidence has regained in manufacturing and in services over the month.
• Within services, confidence decreased in retail and construction sectors.

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Nov.): 1.39% y/y vs 1.2% expected (prior: 1.32% revised from 1.31%)

• Houses prices have slightly accelerated over the month; monthly changes were up by 0.47% m/m after 0.36% m/m prior month.
• Over 20 cities, only 6 cities offered now positive yearly trend in prices.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Jan.): -6 vs -5 expected (prior: -7)

• Business confidence has slightly improved from the prior month, but less than expected by the consensus.
• Opinions were less negative on new orders, shipments and business conditions but were more negative for capex and employment.
• The 6-month views have regained from the prior month on new orders and business conditions.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Jan.): 84.5 vs 91 expected (prior: 94.2 revised from 89.1)

• Consumer sentiment has sharply declined, but prior month data were revised up.
• Index has decreased for both current situation and expectations over the month.
• On current situation, views on labor conditions have deteriorated from the prior month.
• On future situation, opinions have decreased on business and labor.
• Willingness to buy large items has decreased from the prior month.
• The 12-month inflation expectations have increased from 5.4% y/y prior month to 5.7%y/y.

France: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 90 as expected (prior: 90)

• Consumer confidence remained stable at a moderate level.
• Opinions were less negative on financial situation, have stabilized on unemployment and preference for saving has slightly decreased.
• Nevertheless, views on standards of living remained depressed.
• Sentiment and activity remained quite resilient given remaining political uncertainties.

Spain: Unemployment rate (Q4-25): 9.93% vs 10.25% expected (prior: 10.45%)

• Unemployment has significantly declined at year end.
• Employment has increased in Q4-25, driven by employees and self-employed persons; job creations were stronger in the public sector. Part-time workers (mainly women) have strongly increased over the quarter.

Poland: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 5.7% as expected (prior: 5.6%)

• Unemployment has slightly increased over the month.

Brazil: CPI (Jan.): 0.20% m/m vs 0.22% expected (prior: 0.25%)

• Prices have declined over the month for transport and housing but accelerated for health, household goods and communication sectors.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 4.41% y/y to 4.50% y/y.

US: Durable goods orders (Nov.): 5.3% m/m vs 3.8% expected (prior: -2.1% revised from -2.2%)

• Orders for civil aircrafts have strongly rebounded over the month; orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• In detail, orders were mixed across sectors: a rebound was seen for metals and electrical equipment over the month, while orders in other sectors were mixed/weak.
• Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month; inventories were up by 0.2% m/m as seen the prior month.

Germany: IFO (Jan.): 87.6 vs 88.2 expected (prior: 87.6)

• Business sentiment remained stable over the month; sentiment on current situation has stabilized while expectations came lower than expected and from the prior month (index at 89.5 after 89.7 the prior month).
• By sector, sentiment was less negative in manufacturing, trade and construction sectors, while it has deteriorated over the month in services.

Spain: PPI (Dec.): 0.4% m/m (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.4%)

• Prices of energy have rebounded over the month (electricity and gas prices) but were balanced by a decline in prices for manufacturing goods.
• Yearly trend has declined from -2.5% y/y prior month to -3.0%y/y.

Poland: Retail sales (Dec.): 12.5% m/m as expected (prior: -3.3%)

• Sales have rebounded over the month in all sectors, except fuel and clothes; the rebound was driven in particular by autos, food and pharma products.
• Yearly trend has increased to 5.3% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month.

Brazil: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 87.3 (prior: 89.1 revised from 90.2)

• Consumer confidence has decreased over the month on both current situation and expectations.

Brazil: Current account (Dec.): -3363 M$ vs -5000 M$ expected (prior: -4956 M$ revised from -4943 M$)

• Foreign direct investment was down from USD 9820 M prior month to USD -5248 M over the month.
• On cumulated data, total current account deficit represented -3.02% of GDP in 2025 and cumulated foreign direct investment 3.41% of GDP.