Synthèse Daily Macro

US: ISM Manufacturing (June): 49.0 vs 48.8 expected (prior: 48.5)

• New orders: 46.4 vs 48.1 expected (prior: 47.6)
• Employment: 45.0 vs 47.1 expected (prior: 46.8)
• This gauge on the US manufacturing sector ticked higher in June but 11remains in contraction mode for the fourth consecutive month, with a worsening momentum for new orders and employment.
• The price measure edged marginally higher to 69.7, close to the highest level since June 2022.
• Company comments suggest that they are accelerating headcount reductions due to lower demand ahead of trade-policy announcements.

 US: JOLTS Job Openings (May): 7769k vs 7300k expected (prior: 7395k)

• Job openings unexpectedly rose to the highest level since November.
• However, three quarters of the increase in openings is explained by the hospitality sectors. The finance, transportation, warehousing and healthcare also saw gains, but they were more moderate.
• This adds to evidence that the job market remained solid in May.

US: Construction spending (May): -0.3% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.4%)

• The construction sector continues to suffer from high interest rates which weigh on affordability while non-residential construction faces uncertainty related to tariffs.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (June Prel.): 2.0% y/y as expected (prior: 1.9%)

• Core CPI: 2.3% as expected (prior: 2.3%)
• Fully in line with expectation with the headline inflation up 10bp from a 9-month low and core CPI steady at the lowest level since early 2022, thanks to a stronger euro and lower energy costs.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (June F.): 49.5 vs 49.4 expected (prior: 49.4)

• The final release is marginally higher thanks to a positive surprise in Spain (51.4 vs 50.5 expected, after 50.5 in May) vs a disappointing print in Italy (48.4 vs 49.5 expected, after 49.2 in May)

Germany: Unemployment rate (June): 6.3% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployment claims rate SA: 11k vs 15k expected (prior: 33k)

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (June): 49.6 vs 44.0 expected (prior: 42.1)

• This stronger-than-expected rebound (to a 4-month high) probably reflects hope that an agreement with the US about the tariffs can be found.

Germany: CPI (Jun P): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Germany experienced an unexpected slowdown in inflation, primarily due to declining food prices and certain core categories, which outweighed rising road fuel costs.
• According to both the EU-harmonised HICP and the national CPI measure, consumer prices rose 2.0% y/y in June after 2.1% in May.
• Looking forward, eurozone inflation should remain in a 1.9%-2.0% range over the next months and ECB should consider maintaining interest rates steady until the end of the year, with a potential rate cut in December.

Italy: CPI (Jun P): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• In June, Italy's inflation rate slowed more than anticipated. Rising fuel costs, driven by Middle East tensions, were offset by a decrease in utility bills. On an annual basis, inflation remained steady at 1.9%.

Eurozone: M3 (May): 3.9% y/y vs 4.0% expected (prior: 3.9%)

• M3 growth remained stable at 3.9%, slightly below expectations. Credit growth to the private sector held steady at 2.8% y/y.
• Notably, loans to non-financial corporations decreased by 0.1pp. to 2.5% y/y, while household loans increased by 0.1 pp. to 2% y/y.
• Overall, the recovery in credit growth seems to have lost momentum in May.

US: Personal income (May): -0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.7%)

• Largest fall since 2021, which is partly explained by a decrease in Social Security payments.
• However, wages continued to rise solidly, up 0.4% m/m.

US: Personal spending (May): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• After the downward revisions to Q1 GDP yesterday, this fall in personal consumption suggests that domestic demand was weaker than previously thought in the first part of the year.
• Spending on transportation services, meals out and accommodation all fell in May. Motor vehicle purchases declined by 6%, reversing the surge ahead of tariffs.

US: Core PCE deflator (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Y/y: 2.7% vs 2.6% expected (prior: 2.6% revised from 2.5%)
• Core inflation slightly accelerated from the previous month but remains contained.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (June F.): 60.7 vs 60.5 expected (prior: 52.2)

• This final release confirms that consumer confidence improved in June, but sentiment remains below the levels of the past two years.
• One of the main reasons is the decline in inflation expectations. However, they remain close to a 30-year high (5.0% over the next year, 4.0% in the medium term).

Eurozone: Economic confidence (June): 94.0 vs 94.8 expected (prior: 94.8)

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (June): -12.0 vs -10.0 expected (prior: -10.4)

• The decline in industrial confidence is due the export order books component, most probably due to the end of the US stockpiling and the looming increase in tariffs.

Eurozone: Services confidence (June): 2.9 vs 1.6 expected (prior: 1.5 revised from 1.8)

France: CPI (June Prel): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• CPI y/y: 0.8% vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.6%)
• Inflation edged higher in June after having reached a 5-year low in May.

France: Consumer spending (May): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)

• Consumer spending is down 0.5% y/y.

Spain: CPI (June Prel.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.0%)

• CPI y/y: 2.2% as expected (prior: 2.0%)

US: Initial jobless claims (June 21): 236k vs 243k expected (prior: 246k revised from 245k)

• Initial jobless claims declined last week, but continuing claims for unemployment benefits rose to the highest level since November 2021.
• This signals that more people are staying out of work for longer, adding to signs that employers are becoming slightly more cautious on hiring, but holding onto their existing workers.

US: Durable goods orders (May Prel.): 16.4% m/m vs 8.5% expected (prior: -6.6% revised from -6.3%)

• Ex transportation: 0.5% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from 0.2%)
• Strong rebound, but the strength is largely due to aircraft orders. Orders for other types of goods rose more modestly.
• Since the start of the year, the trend is broadly sideways.

US: Pending home sales (May): 1.8% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -6.3%)

• Y/y: -0.3% vs -0.4% expected (prior: -3.6%)
• Pending home sales recovered in May after a sharp decline in April, but the absolute number remains weak due to high mortgage rates and prices.

US: GDP (1Q T.): -0.5% q/q vs -0.2% expected (prior: 2.4%)

• The third GDP revision shows that US consumer spending rose in the first quarter at the lowest pace (+0.5% vs 1.2% initially reported) since the start of the pandemic.
• Spending on services (in particular recreation and travel) were particularly weak, generally being the most sensitive to shocks in consumer sentiment.

US: Wholesale inventories (May Prel.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Retail inventories were up 0.3% in May (vs -0.1% expected) after a flat reading in April.

US: Trade balance (May): -96.6 bn USD vs -86.1 bn expected (prior: -87.0 bn)

• The trade deficit unexpectedly widened 11% due to a 5.2% decline in exports and little change in imports.
• This means that trade may contribute less to Q2 GDP growth than initially expected.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (July): -20.3 vs -19.2 expected (prior: -20.0 revised from -19.9)

• Consumer confidence remained basically stable over the last month.