Synthèse Daily Macro

Switzerland: M3 (June): 4.3% y/y (prior: 3.5%)

• M1 was up by 17.9% y/y after 13% y/y prior month; M2 was up by 14.9% y/y after 11.8% y/y prior month; time deposits continued to reduce (-41.2% y/y after -30% y/y prior month).
• The rebound in monetary aggregates looks constructive for domestic activity.

Poland: Industrial production (June): -1.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.9% revised from -2%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 0.8% m/m (-1.7% m/m prior week); other sectors were also down, with a sharp fall in electricity (-8.7% m/m).

Poland: PPI (June): 0.2%m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.2%)

• Prices were down by 1.8% y/y after -1.5% y/y prior month.

US: Housing starts (June): 1321k vs 1300k expected (prior: 1263k revised from 1256k)

• Housing starts have rebounded over the month, but mainly driven by multi-family projects. Housing starts of single-family houses have declined by 4.6% m/m while those of multifamily starts were up by 30% m/m.
• Building permits have increased from 1394 k prior month to 1397 k; the rebound was also driven by multifamily projects (+7% m/m), while permits for single-family houses decreased by 4% m/m.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (July): 61.8 vs 61.5 expected (prior: 60.7)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a higher rebound of consumer confidence over the month.
• Sentiment on current situation and expectations have both rebounded over the month; nevertheless, they remained both below the levels seen in Jan.25.
• Opinions have improved on financial conditions, assets, current and future activity; nevertheless, they remained cautious on future unemployment. They expect declines in interest rates but rises in gas prices and were not satisfied by current public action against inflation.
• Willingness to buy autos and houses has slightly increased over the month.

Germany: PPI (June): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices of energy (heating oil) have rebounded by 6.3% m/m after -0.4% m/m prior month and food prices remained on sustained rise (0.6% m/m); prices of other sectors were moderate and contained in the 0%/0.1% m/m range.
• Yearly trend has declined by 1.3% y/y after -1.2% y/y prior month.

US: Initial jobless claims (July 12): 221k vs 233k expected (prior: 228k revised from 227k)

• Continuing claims: 1956 k after 1954 k prior week.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (July): 15.9 vs -1 expected (prior: -4)

• Confidence has sharply rebounded over the month; opinions on current situation have improved thanks to new orders, shipments, employment and prices paid, and prices received.
• The 6-month index has also increased over the month, thanks to new orders and capex, while shipments and employment were slightly lower than the prior month; prices paid and received have also regained on the 6-month index.
• As seem in the New York Empire, business confidence has rebuilt but inflation pressures have increased in parallel.

US: Retail sales (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.9%)

• Sales were stronger than expected over the month; sales were strong in all major sectors except furniture and electronics; sales ex food, gasoline, autos and building materials were up by 0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Sales were strong for autos, up by 1.2% m/m, and for building materials and restaurants.
• The US consumers remain resilient and could be more sensitive to inflation risks next months.

US: NAHB housing market index (July): 33 as expected (prior: 32)

• Sentiment in housing has improved over the month; opinions on current and future sales have improved over the month.

US: Business inventories (May): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Inventories have slightly increased for retailers; total sales were down by 0.4% m/m.

Eurozone: CPI (June): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly rebound in prices; energy prices were up by 0.2% m/m after -1.2% m/m prior month; food prices were up by 0.1% m/m and good prices down by 0.2% m/m; services have rebounded, up by 0.7% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend was up by 2% y/y after 1.9% y/y prior month, and core inflation remained stable at 2.3% y/y.
• Inflation close to 2% is not sufficient to push the ECB to go deeply below its neutral rate.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (May): 4.7% vs 4.6% expected (prior: 4.6%)

• Claimant count remained stable at 4.5%, but jobless has increased by 25.9 k after 15.3 k prior month.
• Payrolled decreased by 41 k over the month after -25 k prior month; trend remained negative.
• The 3M-employment was up by 134 k after 89 k the previous period; within employment, self-employed has decreased while part-time jobs increased.
• Vacancies have decreased over the month and remained on a regular declining trend.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (May): 5% y/y as expected (prior: 5.4% revised from 5.3%)

• Wage growth remained on a moderation trend; nevertheless, the pace of wage growth remained sustained in construction and retail-hotel sectors.

Switzerland: Trade balance (June): 5.79 Bn CHF (prior: 4.01Bn)

• Real exports were up by 6.1% m/m after -8.1% m/m prior month; real imports were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month.

US: PPI (June): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• Prices came lower than expected, while prior month data were revised up. Core PPI was flat over the month (0.1% m/m prior month).
• Over the month, prices of goods were up by 0.3% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month), food up by 0.2% m/m (flat prior month), and services down by 0.1% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month). Falling services prices were due to declining monthly prices in warehouses (-0.9% m/m).
• Within goods, some prices were on the rise and also probably reflect higher tariffs and costs such as steel, construction, industrial and building materials, chemicals, apparels and furniture. But these specific rises were more than balanced by flat or declining prices in other sectors in the total index.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.7% to 2.3% y/y and from 2.8% to 2.5% y/y for core PPI.

US: Industrial production (June): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.2%)

• Production of autos has contracted while it was firmer for energy-utility, defence-space and machinery sectors over the month.

UK: CPI (June): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Energy prices were down by 0.2% m/m (-0.8% m/m prior month), but prices remained sustained for household goods (0.4% m/m after 1.5% m/m) and were firmer on services, up by 0.6% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month).
• Within services, prices have rebounded on travel, transport and package holidays over the month. This could reflect high seasonal demand but also rising labor costs.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.4% y/y prior month to 3.6% y/y and from 3.5% to 3.7% y/y on core inflation. The inflation picture looks challenging for the BoE which could delay any new key rates adjustments.

Italy: CPI (June): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly rise but pointed to higher yearly trend, up by 1.8% y/y after 1.7% y/y prior month.
• Prices have declined for communication and housing but accelerated for hotels-restaurants (1% m/m after 1% m/m prior month).