Synthèse Daily Macro

Germany: Industrial production (Jan): -0.5% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: -1.0% revised from -1.9%)

• Germany’s industry stumbled in January, dimming hopes of a quick rebound despite February’s uptick in the PMI.
• Manufacturing output fell 2.4% m/m (sa), partly offset by a 2.9% rise in construction and an 11.8% jump in energy.
• Factory orders plunged 11.1% m/m, but excluding volatile bulk orders they slipped just 0.4%, suggesting the underlying trend remains steadier than the headline.
• If energy prices keep climbing, input costs will rise further, threatening production and souring manufacturing sentiment.

US: Non-farm payrolls (Feb): -92k vs 55k expected (prior: 126k revised from 130k)

• Change in manufacturing payrolls: -12k vs -2k expected (prior: +5k)
• Unemployment rate: 4.4% vs 4.3% expected (prior: 4.3%)
• The payrolls decline was one of the largest since the pandemic, with broad-based weakness; the 3-month moving average fell to 5.7k in February.
• Manufacturing payrolls fell to their lowest level since January 2022 despite all the measures taken by the current and former Presidents. Construction jobs were down 11k in February after a 48k increase in January.
• The weather, strikes (explaining the decline in health-care employment) and methodology undoubtedly had a negative impact on today's figures, but this report tends to confirm the fragility of the labor market, which had been highlighted by other indicators.
• It would be wrong to put too much weight on one month of data, but this could undermine the Fed's latest view that the US labor market was stabilizing.

US: Retail sales (Jan.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• Ex auto and gasoline: 0.3% vs 0.2% (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.0%)
• Online retailers benefited from a 1.9% sales increase, which was notably offset by significant declines in autos (-0.9%, gasoline stations (-2.9%, reflecting a lower price) but also in several other categories such as health care, clothing, electronics and appliances.
• The only services category, restaurants, saw a 0.2% decline.
• Here as well, the weather has been a factor explaining part of the decline in consumer activity (and the surge at non-store retailers).

US: Average hourly earnings (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Y/y: 3.8% vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.7%)
• Slightly above expectations but, since April, the y/y growth rate has fluctuated between 3.7% and 4.0%

Eurozone: GDP (Q4 T.): 0.2% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• GDP y/y: 1.2% vs 1.3% expected (prior: 1.4%)
• Slightly downward revision to GDP growth at the end of last year, but that is due to a larger-than-expected contraction in Ireland (-3.8% vs -0.6% previously reported) whose GDP is notoriously volatile due to the contribution of large multinational corporates.

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.28): 213k vs 215k expected (prior: 213k revised from 212k)

• Continuing claims: 1868 k after 1822 k the prior week.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q4-25): 2.8% q/q vs 1.9% expected (prior: 5.2% revised from 4.9%)

• Productivity remained on a sustained trend, higher than expected but slower after the strong rebound seen in Q3.
• Output was up by 2.6%q after 5.4%q in Q3; wages were up by 5.7%q after 3.3%q in Q3-25.
• Unit labor costs have rebounded up by 2.8%q after -1.8%q in Q3.
• Despite higher labor costs, productivity remained sustained in Q4-25.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Jan.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.5%)

• Sales were down over the month; the monthly fall was mainly driven by auto fuels (-1.1% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month) and by lower sales of goods, while food was slightly positive.
• Trend remained fragile and confidence could be hit by geopolitical uncertainties and rising gasoline prices.

France: Industrial production (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.7%)

• Production has rebounded but the move was driven by the transport (aircraft) and utility sectors; production of refineries and autos were down over the month as well other sectors.

Spain: Industrial production (Jan.): -0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -2.4% revised from -2.5%)

• Production has contracted further contrary to consensus expectations.
• Production was down over the month in all sectors except energy; a sharp contraction was seen in consumer and intermediate goods sectors over the month.

Sweden: CPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to still sustained monthly inflation; core inflation was estimated being up by 0.6% m/m after -0.4% m/m prior month. Inflation stayed resilient in services while prices declined over the month for food and goods.
• Yearly trend is expected to decline to 1.7% y/y (2.0% y/y the prior month) and core inflation at 1.4% y/y (1.7% y/y prior month).

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Feb.): 3.0% vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.9%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

US: ADP Employment change (Feb.): 63k vs 50k expected (prior: 11k revised from 22k)

• Job creations were firmer over the month, but past month data were revised down.
• Major part of job creations came from small firms (60 k) after depressed data the prior month; creations were up by 10 k in large firms while down in medium-sized firms.
• By sector, creations were positive in the two main sectors but biased in favor of services: 47 k in services and 16 k in the manufacturing sector.

US: Services PMI (Feb.): 51.7 vs 52.3 expected (prior: 52.7)

• Final business confidence in services came lower than expected and from the prior month.
• Demand was weaker, but it seemed to be due to bad weather conditions; new foreign demand has declined over the month.
• Costs have increased due to labor costs and tariffs. Opinions have also decreased on employment.

US: ISM Services (Feb.): 56.1 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.8)

• Business confidence in services has strongly rebounded over the month, contrary to the PMI services (this index is more small firms oriented).
• The improvement was broad based across major sub indicators: rising orders, backlog of orders, employment, export demand and falling prices paid.

Eurozone: PPI (Jan.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Yearly trend remained stable at 2.1% y/y.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 6.1% vs 6.2% expected (prior: 6.3% revised from 6.2%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the period.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Feb.): 51.9 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.6)

• Business sentiment in services has increased slightly more than seen in first estimate from the prior month.
• Sentiment has increased over the month in France (but the index remained just below 50) and in Germany, with improving new orders; index has slightly eroded in Italy and Spain but remained well above the 50 level.
• Current activity was better oriented, but export orders were limited; views on employment are mixed while costs were on the rise (wages, energy and transport costs).

Italy: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 5.1% vs 5.6% expected (prior: 5.5% revised from 5.6%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

Italy: GDP (Q4-25): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Final estimate was in line with first estimate of GDP growth.
• Activity was firmer thanks to investment (0.3%q) and public consumption (0.2%); private consumption was up by 0.1%q while exports were down by 1.2%q.

Switzerland: CPI (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Prices have rebounded over the month, driven by higher prices for clothes, transport, leisure and housing.
• Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m, as seen the prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 0.1% y/y and core inflation was up by 0.5% y/y after 0.6% y/y the prior month.

UK: Services PMI (Feb.): 53.9 as expected (prior: 54)

• Sentiment has eroded in services from the prior month in final data. Index for new business has decreased from the prior month, but it remained above the 50 level.
• Domestic activity was firmer than exports; employment has decreased due to higher costs. Technology costs were also mentioned on the rise and participated to rising total costs.