Synthèse Daily Macro

US: Personal income (July): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Wages were up by 0.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month. Wage growth was strong for services (0.9% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month) and in particular wages in the trade sector, up by 1.2% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Real disposable income was up by 0.2% m/m after 0% m/m the prior month.

 

US: Personal spending (July): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

• Purchases of durable goods (autos) were strong, up by 1.9% m/m; purchases of goods were globally up by 0.7% m/m after 0.34% m/m prior month; services were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.38% m/m prior month.
• Saving ratio remained stable at 4.4%.

 

US: Core PCE deflator (July): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Prices of food and energy were down over the month.
• Yearly trend has increased to 2.9% y/y after 2.8% y/y prior month; trend has increased for services (3.6% y/y after 3.5% y/y prior month) and prices for durable goods (1.1% y/y after 0.9% y/y).
• Core PCE data were globally in line with expectations and global scenario remains in favor of inflation trending higher (above 3% y/y) next months.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (July): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Preliminary data pointed to falling global inventories of durable goods (-0.2% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month), but inventories of autos and parts have increased further (0.3% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month).

 

US: Chicago PMI (Aug.): 41.5 vs 46 expected (prior: 47.1)

• Business came well below expectations over the month; opinions have decreased on new orders, production, inventories and employment.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug.): 58.2 vs 58.6 expected (prior: 61.7)

• Final index was lower than the first estimate (58.6) and pointed to deteriorating confidence.
• Sentiment on current conditions has decreased (index from 68 prior month to 61.7), but slightly less decrease than in first estimate.
• Expectations have decreased more: from 57.7 prior month to 55.9 (index at 57.2 in first estimate).
• Opinions have deteriorated on current financial situation and income; expectations have decreased for business expectations, unemployment; willingness to purchase mains items has decreased from the prior month.
• Inflation expectations have increased but less than in first estimate: inflation at 12M from 4.5% prior month to 4.8% (4.9% first estimate); inflation at 5-10y: from 3.4% to 3.5% (3.9% in first estimate).

 

France: Consumer spending (July): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.6%)

• Sales were down for several major sectors; sales were down for energy, clothes and autos, but was up for other durable goods.

 

France: CPI (Aug.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• In preliminary data, prices have rebounded for manufactured goods, up by 1.3% m/m after -2.4% m/m the prior month; prices of food were up by 0.3% m/m and services by 0.2% m/m; energy prices were down by 0.2% m/m after 0.9% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 0.9% y/y prior month to 0.8% y/y.

 

France: Producer Prices (July): 0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Yearly trend was up by 0.4% y/y after 0.3% y/y prior month.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed has surprisingly decreased by 9 k (+10 k expected) after +2 k the prior month.

 

Germany: Retail sales (July): -1.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 1%)

• Sales have reversed in all sectors after the prior month rebound.

 

Germany: CPI (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Preliminary data pointed to moderate inflation over the month; prices of oil, transport and health have decreased over the month, while prices were firmer for food and clothes.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.8% y/y prior month to 2.1% y/y.

 

Italy: CPI (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -1%)

• Yearly trend remained stable at 1.7% y/y; preliminary data pointed to lower contribution of utility to the yearly trend while prices of food and fuels were on the rise.

 

Spain: CPI (Aug.): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Preliminary data pointed to stable trend in yearly inflation, up by 2.7% y/y. A reversal in energy prices contribution (negative base effects) have fuelled the stable yearly trend.

 

Spain: Retail sales (real) (July): 4.7% y/y (prior: 6.2%)

• Over the month, sales were down by 0.4% m/m; all sector except internet sales have contracted over the month.

 

Poland: CPI (Aug.): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to falling prices of food and fuel over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 2.1% (prior: 2.1%)

• Unemployed has declined over the month but the ratio remained stable.

 

Norway: Retail sales (July): 0.6% m/m (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

• Sales were firmer over the month thanks to food, clothes and IT goods.

 

Sweden: GDP (Q2-25): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Domestic activity was strong due to investment and consumption over the quarter.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (July): 0.3% m/m (prior: 2.6% revised from 2.5%)

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 8% (prior: 8.4% revised from 8.6%)

• Unemployed has significantly declined over the month.

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 23): 229k vs 230k expected (prior: 234k revised from 235k)

• Continuing claims: 1972 k after 1961 k the prior week.

 

US: GDP (Q2-25): 3.3% q/q vs 3.1% expected (prior: -0.5%)

• Q2 GDP growth has been slightly revised up thanks to higher investment.
• In second estimate, consumption was slightly firmer (1.6% after 1.4% in first estimate and 0.5% in Q1), due to higher purchases on non-durable goods.
• Investment has been revised up for equipment (7.4%q after 4.8% in first estimate) and in R&D (12.8% after 6.4% first estimate). Residential remained under contraction (-4.7% after -1.3% in Q1).
• Larger decline in inventories have increased the drag on GDP in Q2: -3.29 pp on GDP after +2.59 pp in Q1.
• Net trade has contributed by 4.95 pp on Q2 GDP after -4.61 pp in Q1.
• Private domestic demand was revised up in Q2 from 1.2% to 1.9%, same pace as seen in Q1.
• These data confirmed a resilient domestic demand in H1-25, but the soft-landing process remains in place; investment should remain favored by the economic policy in place.

 

US: Pending home sales (July): -0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.8%)

• Sales remained under contraction; sales were heavily down in the Midwest district (4 districts) but up in the West district.
• Demand was globally weak.

 

Eurozone: M3 (July): 3.4% y/y vs 3.5% expected (prior: 3.3%)

• M1 was up by 5% y/y after 4.7% y/y the prior month; M2 was up by 3.1% y/y after 2.8% y/y prior month.
• Credit to private sector stayed on a stable 2.7% y/y trend.
• Credit to household consumption remained on a sustained trend (4.6%y/y), and credit 1-5y for firms has accelerated to 4.5% y/y after 3.8% y/y prior month.

 

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Aug.): -10.3 vs -10.2 expected (prior: -10.5 revised from -10.4)

• Business confidence was marginally less negative than the prior month; details offered a mixed picture: decreasing opinions on future production, exports and selling prices, while less negative opinions on new orders, past production and employment.

 

Eurozone: Services confidence (Aug.): 3.6 vs 3.9 expected (prior: 4.1)

• Sentiment in services has decreased more than expected from the prior month.
• Details offered a mixed picture: stable views on future demand, rising future prices but decreasing current demand.
• Sentiment has decreased in retail and construction sectors.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Aug.): -15.5 as expected (prior: -14.7)

• Consumer sentiment has decreased from the prior month.
• Details pointed to lower opinions on financial situation, economy (past and future) and concerns on rising prices.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Aug.): 87.4 vs 87.6 expected (prior: 87.8)

• Confidence in manufacturing has decreased from the prior month in parallel with a decline in opinions on construction.
• Opinions have regained on services but decreased on retail.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 96.2 vs 97.3 expected (prior: 97.2)

• Consumer confidence has decreased over the month, with lower opinions on economy and personal situation for both present and future conditions.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 91.1 (prior: 90.8 revised from 90.7)

• Sentiment has regained from the prior month.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Aug.): 97 (prior: 95.8 revised from 96.3)

• Sentiment has increased in manufacturing, construction and services over the month.

 

Switzerland: KOF (Aug.): 97.4 vs 98 expected (prior: 101.3 revised from 101.1)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; the decline in the index remained limited given the challenges ahead on exports and industrial activity due to rising US tariffs.

 

Switzerland: GDP (Q2-25): 0.1% q/q as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

• Growth has slowed down in Q2 due to the end of the front-loading of activity in place in Q1, with negative impact from manufacturing and exports.
• Net trade contribution has slowed down in Q2, while consumption was on a moderate trend (0.3% after 0.2% in Q1) and investment has sharply declined (equipment, construction) after a large advance in Q1.
• Moderate growth trend is expected in H2-25, with uncertainties related to difficult negotiations on future effective US tariffs.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Sept.): -23.6 vs -21.5 expected (prior: -21.7 revised from -21.5)

• Preliminary consumer confidence has declined again over the month; concerns remained about income, activity and weakening willingness to buy items.

US: Durable goods orders (July): -2.8% m/m vs -3.8% expected (prior: -9.4%)

• Orders were down due to the reversal in Boeing aircraft orders heavily down for the second month after a surge in May.
• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core orders) were up 1.1% m/m after -0.6% m/m the prior month.
• Orders for electrical equipment, machinery and primary metals were up over the month.
• Shipments were up 1.4% (0.7% m/m prior month), and up 0.7% m/m for core capital goods.
• Inventories were up 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and up by 0.2% m/m for core capital goods.

 

US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (July): 2.14% y/y vs 2.09% expected (prior: 2.81% revised from 2.79%)

• Prices were down 0.25% m/m after -0.32% m/m the prior month.
• Out of 20 cities, only 6 have still showed a positive yearly trend while prices were negative in other cities.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Aug.): 97.4 vs 96.5 expected (prior: 98.7 revised from 97.2)

• Consumer confidence slightly declined in August with the present conditions index declining to the lowest level since April.
• Notably, the share of respondents that said jobs were hard to get rose for a second consecutive month to the highest level since 2021. However, they were generally slightly more upbeat regarding business conditions.

 

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Aug.): -7 vs -11 expected (prior: -20)

• All sub-indicators of activity improved from July, but most of them remained in negative territory.

 

France: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 87 vs 89 expected (prior: 88 revised from 89)

• Sentiment has decreased from the prior month, and this was broad-based across sub-indices.
• Sentiment has worsened regarding past financial conditions, living standards, and unemployment, even as worries about inflation have eased.
• Sentiment on future purchases has declined as well as the opportunity to increase savings.
• Fresh political turmoil is likely to further erode confidence and dampen consumer spending.

 

Poland: Unemployment rate (July): 5.4% as expected (prior: 5.2%)

• The number of unemployed has strongly rebounded from the prior month.