Synthèse Daily Macro

Eurozone: CPI (Jan.): -0.6% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inflation was confirmed lower over the month; only minor changes at the sector level were seen from the first estimates.
• Food prices were up by 0.7% m/m after 0% the prior month; prices of energy were up by 0.8% m/m after -0.9% m/m the prior month.
• Services were down by 0.4% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and those of goods down by 2.4% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month).
• The yearly trend has been confirmed at 1.7% y/y after 2.0% y/y prior month and core inflation at 2.2% y/y after 2.3% y/y. Services (3.2% y/y) and food prices (2.6% y/y) remain the main drivers of the yearly trend.

 

France: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 91 vs 90 expected (prior: 90)

• Consumer sentiment has slightly gained from the prior month.
• Opinions were less negative on financial situation and standard of living; concerns have increased on unemployment and preferences for saving have increased further.

 

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (March): -24.7 vs -23 expected (prior: -24.2 revised from -24.1)

• Consumer confidence has deteriorated over the month; expectations on future business have decreased, while willingness to buy has decreased and preference for saving has increased.

 

Germany: GDP (Q4-25): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0%)

• First estimate was confirmed pointing to firmer growth at year end.
• Consumer has rebounded by 0.5%q after being flat in Q3-25. Public consumption was very strong up by 1.1%q (0.6%q in Q3).
• Investment was up by 1.0 %q (0.3%q in Q3), but the rebound was driven by construction while equipment was up by a modest 0.1%q.
• Exports were down by 0.6%q and imports also down by 0.3%q.
• Monthly indicators have turned more positive in early 2026, notably in industry, and pointed in favor of a broader growth across sectors which will fuel another 0.3%q GDP rebound expected in Q1-26 growth.

 

Spain: PPI (Jan.): 0.5% m/m (prior: 0.4%)

• Prices were more sustained over the month for energy, mining and industrial and durable consumer goods.
• Yearly trend remained negative at -2.9% y/y (-3% y/y the prior month), due a still large fall in energy prices (-10% y/y).

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Dec.): 1.38% y/y vs 1.30% expected (prior: 1.42% revised from 1.39%)

• Prices were up by 0.47% m/m after 0.53% m/m the prior month.
• Over the 20 cities under review, only 4 cities offered positive yearly trend in prices, while 6 cities have shown prices in a 0%-1% y/y range and the other cities have seen prices under negative yearly trend.

 

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Feb.): -10 vs -5 expected (prior: -6)

• Business sentiment has decreased over the month; opinions have decreased on orders, shipments and capex on current situation.
• The 6-month index has decreased for shipments, but opinions remained stable on new orders and have increased at 6-month for employment.

 

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Feb.): 91.2 vs 87.1 expected (prior: 89 revised from 84.5)

• Consumer confidence has improved after a fall seen the prior month (past month data were revised up).
• Sentiment has eroded on present situation, but expectations have regained from the prior month while its related index remained below levels seen in Dec.
• The difficulties to find a job remained a concern, but the index has improved after the fall seen the prior month; sentiment on future economy was also higher than prior month but its index remained below its Dec. level.
• Plan to spend has decreased for autos and houses over the month but it stabilized for other big items.
• The average 12-M inflation has marginally decreased from 5.6% to 5.5% y/y.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Final data for inventories have shown a rebound in stocks for autos, while they declined for computers and machinery.
• Sales were down for autos but on a strong rebound for computers and machinery.

 

France: Business confidence (Feb.): 97 vs 99 expected (prior: 99)

• Business confidence has decreased in manufacturing sector (index down from 105 prior month to 102).
• Domestic and foreign orders have sharply decreased over the month. Opinions have decreased on production while inventories were on the rise.

 

Poland: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 6% as expected (prior: 5.7%)

• Unemployed has sharply increased over the month.

US: Factory orders (Dec.): -0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 2.7%)

• Orders were down over the month due to a large reversal in orders for civil aircrafts, but orders on defense were strong.
• Orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft (core orders) were up by 0.8% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month, which looked particularly sustained and positive for the US capex cycle.
• Over the month, orders were sustained for IT, metals, fabricated metals, turbines, computers and electronics.
• Shipments were up by 0.5% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month) and up by 1% m/m for core orders.
• Inventories were up by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and up by 0.4% m/m for core orders.

 

Germany: IFO (Feb.): 88.6 vs 88.3 expected (prior: 87.6)

• Business confidence has improved on both current situation and expectations.
• Sentiment on current situation has regained from 85.7 prior month to 86.7 and expectations have rebounded from 89.6 to 90.5, both being slightly higher than expected by the consensus for the month under review. These indicators recovered to their high levels seen in past Aug. 25.
• By sector, sentiment was less negative over the month on manufacturing and construction while it has turned positive on services; on the opposite, it was more negative on the trade sector.
• As seen in PMI and orders, activity and confidence are both recovering and pave the way to firmer growth in 2026.

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Jan.): -0.2% m/m (prior: -0.2%)

• Import prices were down by 0.5% m/m (as seen the prior month) and down by 3.5% y/y after -2.5% y/y.
• Producer prices were down by 0.2% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month) and down by 1.5% y/y after -1.3% y/y the prior month.

 

Switzerland: M3 (Jan.): 5.1% y/y (prior: 4.5% revised from 4.6%)

• M1 growth has accelerated to 18.9% y/y after 18.1% y/y prior month; M2 was up by 13.6% y/y after 13.5% y/y; time deposits have contracted further while saving deposits remained on a rising trend.

 

Italy: CPI (Jan.): -1% m/m as expected

• Inflation was confirmed down over the month; yearly trend has decreased to 1% y/y from 1.2% y/y prior month.

 

Poland: Retail sales (Jan.): -17.8% m/m vs -19% expected (prior: 12.5%)

• Sales have reverted over the month but remained highly volatile on a monthly basis; yearly trend has weakened to 4.4% y/y after 5.3% y/y the prior month. The trend remained strong for clothes and household goods.

US: GDP (Q4-25): 1.4% q/q vs 2.8% expected (prior: 4.4%)

• First estimate of Q4 GDP came lower than expected, mainly due to the negative impact of the government shutdown.
• Consumption was up by 2.4%q (3.5% in Q3), only driven by services (3.4%q), while good purchases were down by 0.1% q.
• Investment remained sustained fueled by equipment and new technologies: equipment was up by 3.2%q (5.2% in Q3) and R&D up by 7.4%q (5.6% ion Q3); spending on structure was down by 2.4% q and residential down by 1.5%q.
• Exports were down by 0.9%q and imports also down b1.3%, so that net exports contribution to GDP was flat.
• Inventories have contracted but less than in the prior quarter, so their contribution to GDP quarterly was slightly positive (+0.21 pp versus -0.12 pp in Q3).
• Public consumption was heavily down (-5.1%q after 2.2% in Q3) due to the government shutdown; this has a large negative impact of Q4 GDP, by -0.9 pp.
• Finally, private domestic sales (our favorite measure of US growth for now..) was up by 2.4% q after 2.9% q in Q3.

 

US: Personal income (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

• Wages were up by 0.2% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.
• Disposable income was up by 0.3% m/m (0.3% m/m prior month) but real disposable income was flat after 0.1% m/m the prior month.

 

US: Personal spending (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

• Purchases of goods were down by 0.1% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month) while those of services were up by 0.66% m/m (0.36% m/m prior month).
• Saving ratio remained quite stable at 3.6% after 3.7% the prior month.

 

US: Core PCE deflator (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Core inflation came higher than expected over the month.
• Yearly trend has regained from 2.8% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y.

 

US: Manufacturing PMI (Feb.): 51.2 vs 52.4 expected (prior: 52.4)

• Flash business sentiment came lower than expected and than the prior month, but the index remained above 50.
• Adverse weather conditions have probably negatively impacted the activity. Sentiment has decreased on new orders, production, and demand; exports have decreased as well as employment. Prices were softer due to higher competition.

 

US: Services PMI (Feb.): 52.3 vs 53 expected (prior: 52.7)

• Flash sentiment has slightly eased in services over the month.
• Sentiment has decreased on exports and employment but was firmer in new business. Prices were firmer over the month.

 

US: New home sales (Dec.): 745k vs 730k expected (prior: 758k)

• Sales have been contrasted across the 4 main districts: rising in Midwest and West districts but declining in Northeast and South districts.
• Inventories have slightly decreased from the prior month.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb.): 56.6 vs 57.3 expected (prior: 56.4)

• Consumer confidence has slightly increased from the prior month, but less than expected.
• Sentiment has improved on current situation, while expectations have slightly decreased (index from 57 to 56.6).
• Sentiment has improved on financial conditions in the short run and business expectations have slightly increased from the prior month, while unemployment remained a concern.
• 12-M inflation has decreased from 4% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y; 5-10y inflation expectations remained stable at 3.3% y/y.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Feb.): 50.8 vs 50 expected (prior: 49.5)

• Flash business sentiment has improved over the month, thanks to higher new orders (related index just above the 50 level).
• The rebound in production was more pronounced in Germany (PMI at 50.7 from 49.1 prior month), thanks to a rebound in new orders (index up to 52.4 from 50.4), while business sentiment has declined in France (from 51.2 to 49.9) and remained steady in other countries.
• Opinions on employment has decreased while costs and prices were globally on the rise over the month.

 

Germany: PPI (Jan.): -0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices have contracted further due to a large fall in energy prices.
• Prices of energy were sharply down (-3.2% m/m after -1.2% m/m prior month; -11.8% y/y) and a modest fall in consumer good prices (-0.2% m/m after -0.3% m/m prior month; +1.8% y/y).
• On the opposite, prices of basic goods were up (0.9% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month) and of capital goods (0.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m).
• Yearly trend has declined further from -2.5% y/y prior month to -3.0% y/y.

 

Sweden: CPI (Jan.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final inflation was slightly higher than in first estimate. Core inflation was down by 0.4% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• While services have less contributed to inflation, good prices were on a firmer trend, probably related to changes in weighing of the CPI basket.
• Yearly trend has slightly declined from 2.1% y/y to 2.0% and for core inflation from 2.3% y/y to 1.7% y/y.

 

UK: Retail sales (Jan.): 1.8% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Sales have surprisingly accelerated over the month; the rebound was broad based and also has included internet sales.
• Sales were highly volatile and quite depressed past months and begin the year on high pace.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Feb.): 52 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.8)

• Flash business sentiment has increased further over the month, while sentiment on new orders have slightly decreased, from 53.2 to 52.5.
• Sentiment was more positive on production and new export orders have regained towards the US, Europe and Asia.

 

UK: Services PMI (Feb.): 53.9 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 54)

• Flash sentiment in services has marginally decreased over the month, but the index remained high. New orders have strongly rebounded (from 52.9 to 54).
• Exports activity was stronger to Europe; sentiment has decreased on employment due to high costs and larger use of technology.