Synthèse Daily Macro

Eurozone: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Final data confirmed the first estimate of monthly inflation; energy prices were down by 0.8% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month), and good prices down by 0.3% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month), while services have rebounded (0.7% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.1% y/y to 1.9% y/y (2.0% y/y in first estimate); prices for food (2.6% y/y) and services (3.4% y/y) stayed above the 2% trend while prices of goods remained on a downward trend (0.4% y/y after 0.5% y/y prior month) and energy prices have declined further (-1.9% y/y after -0.5% y/y prior month).
• Headline inflation could decline further entering 2026 if energy prices continue to fall and euro currency to remain firm.

US: Industrial production (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

• Production of autos was down by 1.1% m/m, while activity in other sectors has shown a moderate monthly rise; activity in utilities was up by 2.6% m/m.

US: NAHB housing market index (Jan.): 37 vs 40 expected (prior: 39)

• Opinions in housing have deteriorated over the month; sentiment has decreased on future sales and demand over the month.

Germany: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Prices of energy and food were down over the month, while services remained on a regular monthly rise (0.3%m/m, up by 3.5% y/y).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.6% y/y prior month to 2.2% y/y.

Italy: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Final prices have shown new monthly increases in transport, housing and leisure goods, while prices for communication and hotels-restaurants have decreased.
• Yearly trend has slightly regained from 1.1% y/y prior month to 1.2% y/y.

US: Empire manufacturing (Jan.): 7.7 vs 1 expected (prior: -3.7 revised from -3.9)

• Business sentiment has rebounded over the month. Index was volatile past months, but underlying trend is improving over the quarters.
• The improvement was driven by new orders and shipments, but opinions have nevertheless decreased for employment and prices.
• The 6-month index has slightly decreased over the month, but this index remained high; the decrease was driven by lower new orders.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Jan.): 12.6 vs -1.4 expected (prior: -8.8 revised from -10.2)

• Business sentiment has rebounded over the month; the index has regained after 3 months of depressed data.
• The improvement was driven by higher orders, and shipments, while opinions have decreased for prices paid and employment.
• The 6-month index has decreased over the month on lower new orders.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan. 10): 198k vs 215k expected (prior: 208k)

• Continuing claims: 1884 k after 1903 k the prior week.

Eurozone: Industrial production (Nov.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.8%)

• Production remained on a firm monthly trend, but disparities remained large across sectors; activity has decreased in energy and consumer goods while it has rebounded in capital goods.
• Disparities and volatility also remained large in industrial activity across euro countries over the month.

France: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Final data confirmed moderate rise in monthly inflation.
• Prices have decreased for energy (-1.6% m/m; -6.8% y/y) and manufacturing prices (-0.3% m/m).
• On the opposite, prices of fresh food were sustained (up by 1.4% m/m) and services remained sustained (up by 0.4% m/m; 2.1% y/y).
• The yearly trend has slightly declined from 0.8% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y.

Germany: Wholesale price (Dec.): -0.2% m/m (prior: 0.3%)

• Yearly trend has declined from 1.5% y/y prior month to 1.2% y/y.

Italy: Industrial production (Nov.): 1.5% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.0%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded in all sectors, except activity in durable consumer goods down by 1.3% m/m over the month after -0.9% m/m prior month.

Spain: CPI (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Final data were in line with first estimates; prices of clothes have declined over the month, while prices of recreation-culture goods were on the rise.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.2% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y.

Poland: CPI (Dec.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices have sharply decreased for clothes and moderately for fuels; prices have shown some acceleration on prices for household equipment.
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.5% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y.

Sweden: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices have decreased for utilities, household goods and restaurants-hotels, but have accelerated for culture-leisure over the month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 0.3% y/y for headline inflation and declined from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y for core inflation.

UK: Industrial production (Nov.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.1%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 2.1% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month; the rebound was driven by transport equipment, pharma, textile, intermediary and basic goods.
• In parallel, services activity was up by 0.3% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month, and construction down by 1.3% m/m (-1.2% m/m prior month).
• Monthly proxy for GDP was up by 0.3% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month.

US: Retail sales (Nov.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.0%)

• Ex autos & gasoline: 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)
• Retail sales regained momentum in November, with strength concentrated in typical holiday categories such as sporting goods (+1.9% m/m) and a modest rebound in car sales (+1.0%) after a sharp decline in October.
• This report adds to evidence that the US consumer remains resilient.

US: PPI (Nov.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• PPI y/y: 3.0% vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.8%)
• PPI ex food & energy: 0.0% vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%); 3.0% y/y vs 2.7% expected (prior: 2.9%)
• Wholesale inflation slightly increased in November mainly as a result of a rise in energy costs.
• This release confirms that companies continue to limit the degree to which they pass along higher import duties to avoid lower sales.

US: Existing home sales (Dec): 4.35M vs 4.22M expected (prior: 4.14M revised from 4.13M)

• Existing home sales rose by a strong 5.1% in December, supported by easing borrowing costs and slower price growth. Indeed, the median sales price increased by only 0.4% y/y, the least in 2.5 years.
• This suggests that the home resale market is likely to gradually recover in 2026 after three very weak years.

US: Business inventories (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

• The inventory to sales ratio edged marginally higher to 1.38.