Important for the scenario next week:
- In the US, many important data will be published during the week; Q3 GDP is expected to come it at around 3.2%, but upside surprises look possible given the positive momentum currently in place. First estimates of the manufacturing and services PMI should point to confidence levels still being high with probable positive momentum, while regional business surveys should stay volatile. Durable goods orders should moderate after strong numbers last month. Housing data (pending and new home sales) should at least stabilise in the current environment, but downside risks exist. Separately, the Fed’s Beige Book will be published and it should validate the current solid growth; many Fed governors are expected to speak publicly during the week.
- In the eurozone, the main important point will be the ECB meeting: no change in strategy is expected but more information about timing on rates, the ECB’s position regarding Italy after the EU summit, and the future credit and bond reinvestment process should be expected by markets. M3 and the quarterly bank lending survey will be published. Preliminary manufacturing and services PMI will be published and should confirm some stabilisation of the composite index, while the IFO may well remain mixed. Consumer confidence data will be published for the eurozone and Germany and these are expected to show signs of stabilising.
- In Japan, the manufacturing PMI should stay close to previous month’s level.
- Among the various indicators in Asia, Korean Q3 GDP data will be published.
- Central bank meetings: Canada, Indonesia and Colombia.
- US data should confirm the strong momentum in place in the US, while in the eurozone we expect the confirmation of a stabilisation in economic activity.
UBP Market Insight