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Insight 12.04.2016

Investment Outlook Q2 2016

Investment Outlook Q2 2016

Central banks: more aggressive, but no more credible

Our global vision of underlying macroeconomic trends is the cornerstone of a robust strategic asset allocation for Q2 2016. Our golden rules are high conviction, non-conformism and capital-preservation.

Equity markets have rebounded more than 15% from their February lows, but there are still signs of tension and global economic forecasts have been downgraded. Eight years after the financial crisis, markets and economies remain heavily dependent on monetary policy.

Lower interest rates and liquidity injections stimulated the US economy in the aftermath of 2008, but the same measures in Europe and Japan are struggling to deliver any sustained boost to activity. As a result, the ECB and BoJ have adopted increasingly unorthodox measures, using negative interest rates and buying private-sector non-fi nancial bonds. Even more noteworthy is the fact that some eurozone central bank offi cials are no longer ruling out helicopter money, i.e. distributing banknotes directly to households, in the hope of driving infl ation higher.

Download the Investment Outlook Q2 2016 publication

Lower interest rates and liquidity injections stimulated the US economy in the aftermath of 2008, but the same measures in Europe and Japan are struggling to deliver any sustained boost to activity. As a result, the ECB and BoJ have adopted increasingly unorthodox measures, using negative interest rates and buying private-sector non-fi nancial bonds. Even more noteworthy is the fact that some eurozone central bank offi cials are no longer ruling out helicopter money, i.e. distributing banknotes directly to households, in the hope of driving infl ation higher.

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UBP in the press 15.02.2018

Convertible bonds: it’s time to be tactical

As we enter 2018 after a record year, one question is on everyone’s lips: what can be reasonably expected from here?

UBP in the press 07.02.2018

French small and mid caps: high potential in 2018

Smaller companies have now performed strongly over a number of years following the financial crisis and have a history of strong relative returns over the long term. What are the main contributing factors to these positive returns, and will the outperformance that has been seen in 2017 be followed by further strength in 2018?

UBP in the press 06.02.2018

Swiss equities: sustained growth driven by emerging countries

Contrary to some small- & mid-cap (SMID) segments of stock indices, the SPI Extra is not necessarily more of a reflection of the domestic economy than the wider Swiss equity market, where more than 90% of company revenues are generated abroad. Swiss SMIDs are broadly as international.

Further reading

UBP in the press 15.02.2018

Convertible bonds: it’s time to be tactical

As we enter 2018 after a record year, one question is on everyone’s lips: what can be reasonably expected from here?

UBP in the press 07.02.2018

French small and mid caps: high potential in 2018

Smaller companies have now performed strongly over a number of years following the financial crisis and have a history of strong relative returns over the long term. What are the main contributing factors to these positive returns, and will the outperformance that has been seen in 2017 be followed by further strength in 2018?

UBP in the press 06.02.2018

Swiss equities: sustained growth driven by emerging countries

Contrary to some small- & mid-cap (SMID) segments of stock indices, the SPI Extra is not necessarily more of a reflection of the domestic economy than the wider Swiss equity market, where more than 90% of company revenues are generated abroad. Swiss SMIDs are broadly as international.