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Investment expertise

Monthly Investment Outlook

Monthly Investment Outlook

We publish a Monthly Investment Outlook that highlights our convictions on equities and bonds, as well as recent asset allocation changes.



Summary

  • MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK - The Fed returns the punchbowl to the party
  • GLOBAL TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION - Favour carry and income in both fixed income and equities
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - Rising disparities and a less synchronised growth cycle
  • UBP ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - China: monetary and budgetary policy to support activity
  • GLOBAL EQUITIES - Preference for dividend and asymmetric strategies
  • GLOBAL BONDS - Turning more constructive on credit after a reset of valuations
  • RECENT VIEW CHANGES - Rotating to corporate credit and high dividend strategies

A resetting of expectations

  • January saw global equity markets rally nearly 8%, completely reversing their 7% collapse in December, 2018. This rebound was matched in corporate credit as spreads reversed their dramatic December widening.
  • Importantly, accompanying this volatility has been a dramatic resetting of valuations AND earnings expectations. Valuations in global equities are now priced just above (chart) levels seen in the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis and the 2011-12 Eurozone Crisis.
  • Benchmark US earnings growth expectations nearly halved by end-January from the 10% EPS growth forecast in early-December. While expectations remain elevated in Europe and pockets of emerging markets, the overhang of earnings downgrades we feared in December appears to have substantially dissipated.

Modest Earnings growth expected in 2019

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Investment Outlook 2019

A look back on UBP's Investment Outlook

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