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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
Friday 06 December
US: strong rebound of non-farm payrolls and rising consumer confidence

US: Non-farm payrolls (Nov.): 266k vs 180k expected (prior: 156k revised from 128k)

  • Data were revised up over the past two months, and the 3-month average is now back above 200 k (205 k).
  • Payrolls were strong in all sectors, including manufacturing with the post-strike rebound in autos and suppliers (54 k after -43 k).
  • Job creations were also sustained in services (206 k after 188 k), driven by business services, education-health and leisure.
  • Wage growth was slightly firmer than expected, up by 0.25% m/m and by 3.1% y/y.
  • The unemployment rate eased a bit from 3.6% to 3.5%. Other alternative measures of the unemployment rate have also marginally eased.
  • Even if this rebound is just mainly due to the auto sector, trend in labor remains healthy, far away from recession.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Inventories have decreased in autos and durable goods but were on the rise in pharma. Total sales have contracted (-0.6% m/m), except for autos.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Dec.): 99.2 vs 97 expected (prior: 96.8)

  • Sentiment has strongly rebounded on current situation, and expectations have increased more moderately. Views on current conditions are at the highest level of the year. Inflation expectations have moderated by one tenth (2.4%y/y at 1-year; 2.3% y/y at 5-year).
  • Sentiment has improved on personal financial situation (current and future), on the economy and labor market (current and future); willingness to buy houses and autos has also increased significantly from past month.

 

Germany: Industrial production (Oct.): -1.7% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.6%)

  • Activity has sharply fallen in construction, mining and for capital goods. Production of energy was up by 2.3% m/m, up by 1% m/m in intermediate goods, and production of consumer goods was only mildly positive (0.3% m/m), thanks to durable consumer goods (2.5% m/m).
  • The fall was concentrated in construction and capital goods, while production of consumer goods was mildly positive. As seen in Q3, industrial activity remained weak fueling again risks of a mild contraction in industry in Q4.

 

Sweden: Industrial production (Oct.): -3% m/m (prior: 0% revised from 0.9%)

  • Industrial orders were down by 1.9% m/m.
  • Separately, activity in the service sector was up by 1.1% y/y (0.8% y/y the prior month).

 

Norway: Industrial production (Oct.): 3.6% m/m (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.5%)

  • Production was flat in manufacturing over the month.
  • Large disparities of performances in production across sectors, and high volatile data.
Thursday 05 December
Firmer factory orders in the US, while falling in Germany

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.30): 203k vs 215k expected (prior: 213k)

  • Continuing claims: 1693 k after 1642 k the prior week.

 

US: Trade balance (Oct.): -47.2 bn USD vs -48.5 bn expected (prior: -51.1 bn revised from -52.5 bn)

  • Deficit has declined, as well as deficit ex oil sector.
  • Exports remained on negative trend (-0.2% m/m) and the fall was broad-based, except for industrial supply goods; imports were sharply down ( -1.7% m/m); all imports have fallen across sectors, except capital goods.
  • The decline in deficit was mainly driven by a sharp fall in imports over past months.

 

US: Factory orders (Oct.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.6%)

  • Orders for capital goods non-defense and ex aircraft were up by 1.1% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
  • Total shipments were flat over the month and inventories slightly up by 0.1% m/m.
  • Despite volatility in business surveys and in orders, momentum has slightly improved for capex.

 

Eurozone: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.6% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Except food, monthly sales decreased in all sectors in Oct. and past month data were also revised down.
  • Sales were heavily down over the month in Germany, Denmark and Finland; yearly trend has moderated from 2.7% y/y prior month to 1.4% y/y.

 

Germany: Factory orders (Oct.): -0.4% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.3%)

  • After upward revisions to strong past month data, orders have fallen over the month, particularly domestic orders (-3.2% m/m), while foreign orders stayed on a 1.5% m/m regular rise.
  • The fall in domestic orders was due to a large reversal in domestic capital goods and a modest decrease in consumer goods orders.
  • While foreign orders have improved, domestic demand remained weak and fragile.

 

Wednesday 04 December
ISM US non-manufacturing index down in November

 

US: ISM Non manufacturing (Nov.): 53.9 vs 54.5 expected (prior: 54.7)

  • The decline was slightly larger than expected but the details were a tad firmer thanks to improvements in the new orders (for the second consecutive month) and employment (up 5.1 pts since September) components. The sharp decline in business activity (-5.4 to 51.6, lowest since November 2009) explains the disappointing headline index.
  • The service sector, which accounts for the bulk of US economic activity continues to expand, but at a markedly slower pace than it did in 2018 when the index averaged 58.9. This is consistent with the deceleration in real GDP growth to 2%.

US: ADP Employment change (67): 67k vs 135k expected (prior: 121k revised from 125k)

  • The fact that job creation slowed across all company sizes indicates some underlying weakness in November job growth, which will probably be reflected in non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Eurozone: PMI Services (Nov. F.): 51.9 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 53.4)

  • A tad better than the flash estimate (thanks to Germany) but still well below October's level. The index fell to 50.4 from 52.2 in Italy but edged slightly higher in Spain to 53.2.

UK: PMI Services (Nov. F.): 49.3 vs 48.6 expected (prior: 50.0)

  • The final PMIs for November were revised higher for services and manufacturing, but both series remain below 50.

Russia: PMI Services (Nov.): 55.6 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 55.8)

  • A tad lower than last month, which marked the highest print in one year.
Tuesday 03 December
Brazil: growth on a firmer trend; mixed picture for eurozone PPIs due to energy prices

 

UK: BRC retail sales (Nov.): -4.9% y/y vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Except food, sales have plunged over the month, refueling downside risks on activity in Q4.

 

Switzerland: CPI (Nov.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Energy prices have sharply decreased, while prices of clothes, houses and furniture have rebounded during the month.
  • Core inflation was flat over the month and the yearly trend has accelerated from 0.4% the prior month to 0.7% y/y. (headline inflation was still down by 0.1% y/y after -0.3% y/y the prior month).

 

Eurozone: PPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Energy prices have rebounded over the past two months, but their yearly trend has turned more negative.
  • Yearly trend has deteriorated from -1.2% y/y the prior month to -1.9% y/y; core PPIs were up by 0.3% y/y (0.4% y/y the prior month).

 

Brazil: GDP (Q3-19): 0.6% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.4%)

  • Growth trend has accelerated in Q3 and was revised up for Q2. While exports have underperformed, investment has rebounded, and consumption was also sustained in Q3.
  • Growth was up by 1.2% y/y in Q3, after 1.1% y/y in Q2.

 

Turkey: CPI (Nov.): 0.38% m/m vs 0.75% expected (prior: 2%)

  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 8.55% y/y to 10.56% y/y. Core inflation accelerated from 6.67% y/y to 9.25% y/y.
  • Base effects (due to commodities and currency changes) have turned less favorable in terms of inflation and could interfere with the central bank easing stance.
Monday 02 December
US ISM-PMI manufacturing on opposite direction; sentiment in manufacturing has rebounded in the Eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov F): 52.6 vs 52.2 expected (prior: 51.3)

  • The index has improved and was supported by quicker expansions in production and new orders.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (Nov): 48.1 vs 49.2 expected (prior: 48.3)

  • Contrary to expectations, sentiment has eased further.
  • Sentiment has decreased on inventories, employment and new export orders.; it has increased on production, prices paid, suppliers deliveries and imports. Sentiment on new orders dropped to levels saw in Sept/August.
  • PMI was more constructive than ISM.

 

US: Construction spending (Oct): -0.8% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from 0.5%)

  • Nonresidential construction and residential sector stayed under contraction, -0.7% m/m and -0.9% m/m respectively.

 

UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.9 vs 48.3 expected (prior: 49.6)

  • Sentiment has deteriorated as political and economic uncertainty continues.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov F): 46.9 vs 46.6 expected (prior: 45.9)

  • Sentiment has increased from prior month and it was slightly better than expected.
  • At the country level, sentiment has deteriorated in Italy, while it has rebounded in Germany, France and Spain.

 

Russia: PMI Manufacturing (Nov): 45.6 vs 48.1 expected (prior: 47.2)

  • Sentiment has deteriorated and manufacturing firms have continued to highlight challenging domestic and foreign demand conditions, with the sector recording its worst performance since May 2009.
  • The deterioration was driven by a slump in new business and subsequent drop in production.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov): 46.7 vs 46.3 expected (prior: 45.3)

  • Sentiment has slightly improved but the manufacturing sector remains mired in its steepest downturn since 2009, led by falling inflows of new orders.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Nov): 49.5 (prior: 49)

  • Sentiment has improved but new orders moderated at a softer pace as client demand remained fragile.

 

Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov): 48.8 as expected (prior: 49.4)

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