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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
Monday 28 September
US Dallas Fed manufacturing on rebound

US: Dallas Fed manufacturing (Sept.): 13.6 vs 9.5 expected (prior: 8)

  • Sentiment on current situation and expectations have rebounded over the month, driven by higher activity in production, rebuilding new orders and more positive signs on capex, rising employment, but with also a strong rise in prices paid.
  • Momentum in manufacturing remained positive, adding to progressive rebound in capex after current rebound in production.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (Aug.): -0.3% m/m (prior: 0.7% revised from 1.9%)

  • After strong rebound the prior month, sales were back over the month; levels remained close to past Feb. Levels.

 

Norway: Retail sales (Aug.): -4.9% m/m (prior: 0.6%)

  • The reversal in sales came from lower food, sport and furniture purchases over the month.
Friday 25 September
Mixed US durable goods orders; rebounding confidence in Italy

US: Durable goods orders (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 1.4% expected (prior: 11.4%)

  • Preliminary data came lower than expected, as picture was mixed across sectors in terms of orders.
  • More positively, core orders (capital goods non-defense ex aircraft) were up by 1.8% m/m (1% m/m expected; 2.5% m/m the prior month).
  • Total shipments were down by 0.3 % m/m and inventories down by 0.1% m/m.
  • With improving sentiment in the manufacturing, momentum is progressively recovering for capex, but pace across sub-sectors still looks different.

 

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Sept.): -25 vs -27 expected (prior: -27)

  • Sentiment has slightly increased from the prior month; opinions on past personal financial situation has slightly decreased, but views on future economic situation has improved from the prior month and climate for purchases has also improved in parallel.
  • Despite this modest improvement, the index remained far below its pre-COVID level (index at -7).

 

Eurozone: M3 (Aug.): 9.5% y/y vs 10.1% expected (prior: 10.1% revised from 10.2%)

  • Pace growth of monetary aggregates has moderated from the prior month: after huge liquidity injections in Q2, and building cash from various economic agents, trend in aggregates has moderated.
  • Loans to the private sector remained sustained, but growth pace has also moderated, from 4.7% y/y to 4.5% y/y.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 103.4 vs 100.8 expected (prior: 101 revised from 100.8)

  • A surprising strong rebound in consumer confidence; views on current and future economic situation (global and personal) has improved from the prior month.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 92.1 vs 87.4 expected (prior: 87.1 revised from 86.1)

  • Business sentiment has strongly rebounded; improving current orders (both foreign and domestic orders) and more positive views on future production and orders; sentiment on employment has moderately improved compared to other sub-components.
Thursday 24 September
Booming US new home sales; rising German business confidence

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept.19): 870k vs 840k expected (prior: 866k revised from 860k)

  • Continuing claims: 12 580 k after 12 747 k past week.
  • Persons under Pandemic Unemployment assistance declined from 675 k to 630 k.
  • Weekly claims have largely improved at the end of August but failed to stay on the same improving trend in recent weeks.

 

US: New home sales (Aug.): 1011k vs 890k expected (prior: 965k revised from 901k)

  • Sales have boomed and prior month data were revised higher.
  • Inventories have decreased further; sales were robust in all districts, but more particularly in the South district.
  • Interestingly, median and average prices of houses sold have declined on a monthly and yearly basis (-4% and -6% y/y respectively): while numbers of houses sold at top high prices were stable, numbers of houses sold in median prices have increased, leading to lower prices in the sample of houses sold on a yearly comparison.

 

Germany: IFO (Sept.): 93.4 vs 93.8 expected (prior: 92.5 revised from 92.6)

  • Sentiment has improved from the prior month, but slightly less than expected; same was true for expectations and views on current situation. Expectations have improved further, from 97.2 the prior month to 97.7 versus 98 expected.
  • The sentiment has improved for all sectors: manufacturing, trade, services and construction sectors.
  • The improvement in the manufacturing sector was in line with the rebound seen in the latest German PMI manufacturing, pointing to less severe recession than feared this year and to a still firmer activity compared to other euro members.

 

Switzerland: SNB left key rates unchanged at -0.75%.

  • No change in strategy: the SNB still viewed CHF as being expensive and justified potential further FX interventions. SNB hopes the economy to continue to recover but uncertainties and risks are high (virus, trade); Swiss GDP should contract by 5% this year; inflation has been slightly revised up (-0.6% y/y this year and 0.2% y/y in 2021, on firmer oil prices.

 

France: Business confidence (Sept.): 92 vs 94 expected (prior: 90 revised from 91)

  • Sentiment has improved significantly in the manufacturing sector (from 92 the prior month to 96), thanks to improving production, less negative views on orders (both domestic and foreign orders) and also rising selling prices.
  • Sentiment has also increased in services and globally on employment; it has only modestly improved in the construction sector.

 

Turkey: Industrial confidence (Sept.): 105.7 (prior: 105.2)

  • Business sentiment has regained further thanks to rebound in orders, exports and capex; on the opposite, sentiment eased on production and employment.

 

Turkey: Central bank has increased key rates from 8.25% to 10.25%.

  • After various indirect supports to lira past months, the central bank has decided to hike rates to contain inflation developments and support further the currency.
Wednesday 23 September
PMI business sentiment: divergence across sectors and countries; downside risks on services

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 53.5 as expected (prior: 53.1)

  • Sentiment has increased from the prior month in line with expectations. Opinions were more positive on production, new orders and new business; new export orders have moderated; employment remained positive but at a slower pace than the prior month.
  • Selling prices were on the rise, partly reflecting higher costs.
  • Businesses remained cautious on future activity due to COVID and elections.

US: Markit Services PMI (Sept.): 54.6 vs 54.7 expected (prior: 55)

  • Sentiment has eased in services, but at a much more moderate pace than seen in the eurozone.
  • Views remained positive on new business and employment but at a slower pace than the prior month; expectations have moderated due to COVID cases and elections period.
  • Selling prices were on the rise, reflecting higher costs.
  • Composite index has moderated from the prior month (54.4 after 54.6), still pointing to decent growth trend.

US: House price Index MoM (FHFA) (July): 1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1% revised from 0.9%)

  • Another month of sustained growth in housing prices. The rise was also close to 1% m/m in all major districts.

UK: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 54.3 vs 54 expected (prior: 55.2)

  • Preliminary data have pointed towards slow growth; views on production and new orders have eased from the prior month, while exports were better oriented thanks to Asian demand.
  • Prospects look limited as demand peaked in August according to businesses.

UK: PMI Services (Sept.): 55.1 vs 55.9 expected (prior: 58.8)

  • Sentiment in services has decreased more than expected from the prior month.
  • Lack of new projects, weak demand and rising uncertainties on COVID have weighted down on the sentiment, before official announcement of renewed constraints on social distancing.
  • While transport and tourism were the weakest sectors, sentiment remained positive in housing and digital services. Employment faced redundancy and firms will cut further labor force facing rising costs, partly due to some GBP weakness.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Sept.): 53.7 vs 51.9 expected (prior: 51.7)

  • Sentiment in the manufacturing sector has rebounded more than expected.
  • Preliminary data pointed to a strong rebound in sentiment in Germany (PMI index at 56.6), while the French index was just above 50 (50.9).

Eurozone: PMI Services (Sept.): 47.6 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 50.5)

  • Sentiment in services has sharply decreased from the prior month; the index fell less in Germany (just below 50) than in France in preliminary data.
  • Rising COVID cases and local restrictions on social distancing have weighted down on sentiment and on prospects in services.
  • Divergence has increased in momentum in services and in the manufacturing sector; differences across countries have also increased, showing Germany still in rebound, while momentum faded in other euro members.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -1.6 vs -0.8 expected (prior: -1.7 revised from -1.8)

  • Confidence index was barely unchanged from the prior month and came below expectations. No more details available.

Norway: Unemployment rate (July): 5.2% as expected (prior: 5.2%)

  • Unemployment rate remained stable after strong rise in May and June.

Poland: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6.1% as expected (prior: 6.1%)

  • After strong rise in April-May, the unemployment ratio remained stable.

Brazil: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 83.4 (prior: 80.2)

  • A strong rebound in confidence, mainly expectations while sentiment on current economic situation remained negative.

Brazil: Current account (Aug.): 3721 M$ vs 2300 M$ expected (prior: 1398 M$ revised from 1628 M$)

  • Current account surplus has strongly increased from past month revised data.
  • Foreign direct investment has eased from USD 2685 M to USD 1430 M.
Tuesday 22 September
Record high existing home sales in the US

US: Existing home sales (Aug.): 6M as expected (prior: 5.86M)

  • Data have reached a new high (close to 2006 levels) and sales were also robust in all the major districts.
  • Inventories have continued to decrease, while prices have increased further: 8.8% y/y on average, but in most districts, prices show more than 10 % y/y rise.
  • Strong demand and low interest rates have underpinned the momentum in housing.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Sept.): -13.9 vs -14.7 expected (prior: -14.7)

  • After initial rebound, confidence weakened and looked fragile over the past two months; sentiment has regained according to the preliminary estimate, but the index remained far below its pre-COVID level (index at -7).

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 61.8 (prior: 59.6)

  • The index has recovered after a decrease over the past two months; the index is close to its June levels.
  • Opinions have regained on the future economic outlook and on personal financial situation.

 

Macro economic

The Chief Economist's weekly update

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