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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Tuesday 15 January
US: declining monthly PPIs on lower energy, still falling business confidence in New York

US: Empire manufacturing (Jan.): 3.9 vs 10 expected (prior: 11.5 revised from 10.9)

  • Sentiment has declined further after the fall seen the prior month (index slightly revised up).
  • On current and future views, the fall was driven by lower new orders, shipment and also lower employment.
  • The index was back to the mid-2017 and 2015 levels, pointing towards a renewed mini cycle (the slowdown part) in industry.


US: PPI (Dec.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Lower energy prices and lower trade services have driven the changes on PPIs.
  • The yearly trend stayed stable at 2.5% y/y; core PPIs were flat over the month and also stayed stable on a yearly basis (2.8% y/y).
  • These data should help the Fed to be patient.


Sweden: Retail sales (Nov.): -0.5% m/m (prior: 0.2% revised from -0.2%)

  • The yearly trend for consumption has contracted by -0.5% y/y after 1.5% y/y in past month.


France: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed back below 2% y/y, at 1.9% y/y, on lower energy prices.


Germany: GDP YoY (2018): 1.5% y/y as expected (prior: 2.2%)

  • First GDP estimate for the whole year has pointed towards a marked slowdown from above 2% growth in 2017.
  • Implicitly growth in Q4 (official number to be released by 14th Feb.) was mildly positive (around 0.2% q/q) based on preliminary data.
  • By sector, export performances and consumption have slowed down significantly in 2018, while investment stayed more dynamic. 2019 growth outlook is around 1.5%, with still downside risks in place notably on Q119.


Spain: CPI (Dec.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed on a lower trend thanks to falling energy prices. The yearly trend has moderated from 1.7% y/y to 1.2% y/y.


Poland: CPI (Dec.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

  • As estimated, inflation trend has moderated from 1.3% y/y to 1.1% y/y; Prices of energy and of clothes have both declined on a monthly basis.


Brazil: Retail sales (Nov.): 2.9% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -0.4%)

  • Sales have rebounded more than expected after downward revisions to past month data. Purchases of furniture, household goods have strongly rebounded after the election.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 11.6% vs 11.4% expected (prior: 11.4%)

  • The unemployment ratio stayed on a rising trend for several months.
Monday 14 January
Falling industrial production in the eurozone

Eurozone: Industrial production (Nov.): -1.7% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • IP y/y: -3.3% vs -2.1% expected (prior: 1.2%)
  • Unfortunately this sharp decline cannot be attributed to a fall in energy production as energy output was only down 0.6% m/m in November, nor primarily to the auto industry as car production fell only slightly more than aggregate production (- 1.8%). Capital goods production fell by a particularly steep 2.3%.
  • This adds to evidence that Q4 GDP growth in the eurozone was weak.


Turkey: Industrial production (Nov.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -2.2% revised from -1.9%)

  • IP y/y: -6.5% vs -5.4% expected (prior: -5.7%)
  • Worst annual decline since November 2009.
Friday 11 January
US headline inflation inched down, but core inflation remains unchanged

US: CPI (Dec): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

  • The plunge in gasoline prices partly explains the m/m fall in headline.
  • Energy prices, transport have fallen during the month; on the opposite, services remained steady (up by 0.3% m/m) and housing by 0.4% m/m.
  • Energy prices have driven trend in headline prices lower, from 2.2% to 1.9% y/y, while core prices remained on a firm trend, unchanged at 2.2% y/y. In this environment, the continued stability of core inflation could give the Fed more room to pause.


France: Business sentiment (Bank of France) (Dec): 103 vs 100 expected (prior: 101)

  • Sentiment has slightly rebounded in manufacturing but unchanged on services and construction.
  • In manufacturing, sentiment on production, deliveries and orders has improved from past month.


Italy: Industrial production (Nov): -1.6% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

  • On a y/y basis: -2.6% vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1%)
  • Energy prices have increased while consumer goods, capital goods and intermediate goods have declined.


UK: Industrial production (Nov): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.6%)

  • On a y/y basis: -1.5% vs -0.7% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.8%)
  • Manufacturing production: -0.3% vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.9%); -1.1% y/y vs -0.7% expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -1%).


Thursday 10 January
Weak industrial production in France and consumption in the UK

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan.5): 216k vs 226k expected (prior: 233k revised from 231k)

  • Continuing claims: 1722 k after 1750 k past week.


France: Industrial production (Nov.): -1.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.2%)

  • Manufacturing production was down by 1.4% m/m, due to a sharp fall in energy and in the auto sectors; other sectors, except construction was also under a mild contraction.
  • A seen in Germany, trend in industrial production has turned sharply negative (-2.2% y/y).


UK: BRC retail sales (Dec.): -0.7% y/y vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.5%)

  • Non-food sales remained in a negative trend.
  • Domestic demand is at risk, while visibility on political situation has decreased further.


Sweden: Industrial production (Nov.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.8%)

  • After the rebound seen in Sept.-Oct., activity has contracted in industry and also in services.
  • Signals of slowdown have developed and central bank may pause in its normalization process.

Norway: CPI (Dec.): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Trend has not changed as headline remained at 3.5% y/y and core inflation at 2.1% y/y.

Norway: PPI incl. Oil (Dec.): -3.5% m/m (prior: -3.2%)

  • Trend has declined from 14.9% y/y to 7.8% y/y.
Wednesday 09 January
Eurozone: poor export performances in Germany, declining consumer confidence in France

Switzerland: CPI (Dec.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.3%)

  • A large decrease in energy prices (-7% m/m), food prices and in imported goods have more than compensated the rise in clothes (1.5% m/m). Core inflation was flat over the month, and slightly up from 0.5% y/y to 0.6% y/y.
  • Yearly trend in headline has moderated from 0.9% y/y to 0.7% y/y.


France: Consumer confidence (Dec.): 87 vs 90 expected (prior: 91 revised from 92)

  • Sentiment has deteriorated at a time of rising social protests; opinions on financial situation and unemployment have sharply decreased.
  • Launch of measures in favor of purchasing power at past year end could give back some support to confidence and spending.


Germany: Trade Balance (Nov.): 20.5bn EUR vs 18.6bn expected (prior: 18.9bn revised from 18.3bn)

  • Current account balance: EUR 21.4 bn after EUR 18.9 bn.
  • Exports: -0.4% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month); imports: -1.6% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month).
  • On a yearly basis, imports were up by 3.6%, while exports were flat.


Italy: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 10.5% as expected (prior: 10.6%)

  • After the rebound the prior month, the ratio has slightly eased.


Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 7.9% vs 8.1% expected (prior: 8% revised from 8.1%)

  • The first time since the financial crisis the ratio passes below 8%.
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Insight 13.12.2018

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