1. Investment expertise
  2. Market insight

Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Friday 10 July
US PPI lower than expected in June

US: PPI (Jun): -0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • The decline was driven by food (-5.2% m/m) and trade (-1.8%) while energy prices have rebounded (7.7% m/m).
  • Core measures were soft, with the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services increasing by 0.3% m/m (higher than expected).


France: Industrial production (May): 19.6% m/m vs 15.4% expected (prior: -20.6% revised from -20.1%)

  • IP declined by 23.4% y/y vs -24% y/y expected (prior: -35% revised from -34.2%).
  • Manufacturing production: 22% m/m vs 22.8% expected (prior: -22.3% revised from -21.9%); -25.2% y/y vs 23.6% expected (prior: -37.9% revised from -37.1%).


Italy: Industrial production (May): 42.1% m/m vs 24% expected (prior: -20.5% revised from -19.1%)

  • IP declined by 20.3% y/y vs 30.7% y/y expected (prior: -43.4% revised from -42.5%).
Thursday 09 July
Weak recovery in Germany exports

US: Initial jobless claims (July 4): 1314k vs 1375k expected (prior: 1413k revised from 1427k)

  • The decline was stronger than expected but with sharp divergences across states.
  • The number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs also fell by more than expected to 18.1 mn (vs 18.8 mn expected).
  • This somewhat ease concerns of a renewed downturn in the labor market, but this may change if coronavirus cases continue to rise in several large states.


Germany: Trade Balance (May): 7.1bn EUR vs 7.0bn expected (prior: 3.6bn revised from 3.5bn)

  • Exports: 9.0% m/m vs 14.0% expected (prior: -24.0%)
  • Imports: 3.5% m/m vs 12.4% expected (prior: -16.6%)
  • The rebound in exports was much shallower than expected, notably to the US.
  • Relative to February, exports in May were still down by almost 27% and imports by more than 18%.


Tuesday 07 July
Disappointing May industrial production data in Germany

US: JOLTS Job Openings (May): 5397 vs 4500 expected (prior: 4996 revised from 5046)

  • This positive outcome is consistent with the stronger than expected June jobs report.


Germany: Industrial production (May): 7.8% m/m vs 11.1% expected (prior: -17.5% revised from -17.9%)

  • IP y/y: -19.3% vs -16.9% expected (prior: -25.0%)
  • The rebound from April was significantly slower than expected, so that industrial output was still down about a fifth relative to the level seen in February.
  • This may be partly explained by a slower or lagging recovery in the rest of the world.


France: Business sentiment (Bank of France) (June): 89 vs 90 expected (prior: 83)

  • The headline index rose to its highest level since February, but the sentiment on orders declined from May.


Italy: Retail sales (May): 24.3% m/m vs 15.0% expected (prior: -10.7% revised from -10.5%)

  • Y/y: -10.5% vs -17.0% expected (prior: -26.7%)
  • Non-food retail sales surged by 66% m/m but were still down 20% y/y.



Monday 06 July
Stronger-than-expected June US ISM non-manufacturing

US: ISM Non manufacturing (Jun): 57.1 vs 50.2 expected (prior: 45.4)

  • Sentiment jumped to a four-month high as lockdowns lift. The composition of the report was strong with significant improvement in the business activity (+25pt to 66, the second-highest in records dating back to 1997), new orders (19.7pt to 61.6), employment (+11.3pt to 43.1) and export orders (17.4pt to 58.9) to components.


US: Markit Services PMI (Jun F): 47.9 vs 46.9 expected (prior: 46.7)


Germany: Factory orders (May): 10.4% m/m vs 15.4% expected (prior: -26.2% revised from -25.8%)

  • After downward revisions to weak past month data and a cumulative slump of more than 37% in the previous two months, orders rebounded in May, particularly domestic orders (+12.3% m/m), while foreign orders increased by only 8.8% m/m.
  • Across major components of German manufacturing orders, capital goods showed the strongest increases (+20.3%), while consumer goods and intermediate goods increased by +4.7% and 0.4% m/m, respectively.
  • However, the recovery remained well below expectations due to modest increase in orders from outside the Euro area (+2% m/m).


Eurozone: Retail sales (May): 17.8% m/m vs 15% expected (prior: -12.1% revised from -11.7%)

  • A strong rebound in all sectors (particularly for clothes, IT goods and furniture) after sharp decline the previous month.
Friday 03 July
Rebounding business confidence in services (PMI) in Europe


Eurozone: PMI Services (June): 48.3 vs 47.3 expected (prior: 30.5)

  • Sentiment has significantly rebounded in all major countries from the prior month.
  • Index was back above 50 in France and Spain from depressed levels; only PMI services in Italy was slightly below expectations, but the index has nevertheless rebounded from 28.9 to 46.4.
  • Business sentiment has strongly regained in both manufacturing and service sectors, paving the way to rebuilding momentum in domestic activity in Q3.


UK: GFK consumer confidence (June): -27 vs -29 expected (prior: -30)

  • Confidence has slightly regained from the prior month. Opinions on future economic situation remained depressed.
  • The index remained close to the 2012 low levels.


UK: PMI Services (June): 47.1 vs 47 expected (prior: 29)

  • With progressive reopening of the economy, sentiment has continued to regain, and the index was coming back closer to 50.


Turkey: CPI (June): 1.13% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.36%)

  • Despite falling prices in food, prices have accelerated significantly over the month on clothes, communication, transport and leisure. Core inflation was up by 2.1% m/m.
  • Headline inflation has accelerated from 11.39% y//y the prior month to 12.62% y/y and core inflation from 10.32% y/y to 11.64% y/y.


Macro economic

The Chief Economist's weekly update

To help you navigate through the economic news, here is a summary of last week’s main events and what to look out for next week.
Read more

Institutional clients

With a team of more than 200 people, UBP Asset Management has built an on-the-ground presence in the world’s major markets through organic growth and selected partnerships.

Our fund range


View all our funds.

Insight 03.07.2020

COVID-19: UBP keeps you up to date

Since this coronavirus appeared, UBP has provided its clients with guidance and support as we all tackle this unprecedented global health crisis. We give you regular updates on everything from our own safety protocols and the recommendations issued by the authorities to our experts’ latest analysis on the effects of the pandemic on the world economy and financial markets.