Market insight

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.17): 787k vs 870k expected (prior: 842k revised from 898k)

• Continuing claims: 8373 k after 9397 k the previous week.
• Momentum has significantly improved from the previous weeks.

US: Existing home sales (Sept.): 6.54M vs 5.3M expected (prior: 5.98M revised from 6M)

• Sales of existing homes have reached new high levels; a strong rise has been seen in single-family houses, while sales of condos were also on the rise but at a slower pace.
• Inventories for both categories have decreased and settled below 3 months; prices remained on a rising trend for both single-family houses and condos.

France: Business confidence (Oct.): 90 vs 92 expected (prior: 92)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month; in the manufacturing sector, confidence has declined from the prior month, which was also revised down.
• Sentiment on past production and inventories has increased further, but sentiment on new orders and future own production has fallen significantly over the month.
• Separately, sentiment in services has fallen dramatically and the index was back to its July level, pointing towards weak activity in the month to come.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Nov.): -3.1 vs -3 expected (prior: -1.7 revised from -1.6)

• Preliminary data have pointed towards deteriorating confidence related to rising concerns on pandemic and local restrictions.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Oct.): -15.5 vs .15 expected (prior: -13.9)

• Preliminary data have shown declining sentiment in consumers; the index was back to its June level.
• Downside risks on Q4 growth are building in the Eurozone.

Norway: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 5.3% vs 5.1% expected (prior: 5.2%)

• The unemployment rate continues to trend higher over the past quarters.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 81.9 (prior: 82)

• Sentiment has eroded from the prior month due to lower confidence on future economic situation and rising unemployment.

UK: CPI (Sept.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.4%)

• Inflation has rebounded after lower tax and specific help to restaurants have ended.
• Over the month, prices of food, health and transport have declined, while prices rebounded for clothes and hotels and restaurants after measures expired.
• Yearly trend has accelerated further from 0.2% y/y the prior month to 0.5% y/y.
  low inflation environment could add pressure on the BoE to ease further.

UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): 1.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.4%)

• A broad-based rise in prices over the month, except for oil prices; largest rises were seen in food and metal prices over the month.
• Yearly trend has turned less negative, from -5.6% y/y the prior month to -3.7% y/y.

UK: PPI Output prices (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

• Prices have contracted further due to sharp decline in oil prices (-2.5%m/m); core PPI were up by 0.2% m/m.
• Yearly trend remained stable at -0.9% y/y.

Switzerland: M3 (Sept.): 4.1% y/y (prior: 4%)

• Other monetary aggregates have also shown parallel rising trend (M1: 5.6% y/y; M2 up by 3.2% y/y)

Poland: Retail sales (Sept.): -1.8% m/m vs -2.4% expected (prior: -2.6%)

• Contraction in sales was less negative than expected thanks to still dynamic purchases of autos, pharma and textile products.
• Trend in real yearly trend has improved from 0.5 % y/y the prior month to 2.5 %y/y.

US: Housing starts (Sept.): 1415k vs 1465k expected (prior: 1388k revised from 1416k)

• Starts have rebounded after the fall the prior month, but they remained below their July high levels (1487 k).
• Trend in single family houses (starts and building permits) continued to rise, while data on multi-family houses have shown a slowdown in starts and permits over the past 3 months.

Switzerland: Trade balance (Sept.): 3.28 Bn CHF (prior: 3.54Bn)

• Trade surplus has declined from the prior month due to reversal in export performances.
• Real exports: -2.1% m/m after 3% M7M the prior month, real imports: 2.1% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.

Germany: PPI (Sept.): 0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

• Basic good prices were up by 0.4% m/m, due to 1% m/m in energy prices; other prices were flat or slightly down over the month. Core PPI were up by 0.1% m/m.
• PPIs stayed in negative territory on yearly trend: -1% y/y after -1.2% y/y.

Poland: Industrial production (Sept.): 15.5% m/m vs 13.4% expected (prior: -5.8%)

• A strong rebound in activity in a traditional highly volatile monthly index; the rebound was centred on the manufacturing sector (17% m/m).
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.5% y/y the prior month to 5.9% y/y.

Poland: PPI (Sept.): 0.1%m/m as expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.3%)

• Mining prices were up by 1.9% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has turned more negative, from -1.3% y/y the prior month to -1.6% y/y.

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 85 vs 83 expected (prior: 83)

• Sentiment has increased to new highs, with rising current and future sales; index has increased in all except one of the four districts.
• Low interest rates and healthy labour market continue to support the trend in housing.

China: Q3 GDP pointed to continued recovery: 4.9% y/y vs expected 5.5% (prior: 3.2% y/y).

• The economy expanded at a faster pace of 4.9% y/y (2.7% SA q/q) in Q3. This was slightly below consensus, but underlying data suggests that the recovery is becoming broader based.
• Some downside risks to our growth forecast of 2.1% for 2020, which indirectly assumes a 6.5% y/y expansion in Q4. However, better domestic demand, compounded with a favorable base effect in Q1, point to upside risks in 2021. 

China: Sept. industrial production: 6.9% y/y (prior: 5.6%); retail sales: 3.3% y/y (prior: 0.5%); Fixed asset investment: 0.8% YTD y/y (prior: -0.3%)

• The supply side continued to lead the recovery in the last month of Q3, with industrial production growing at 6.9% y/y and exceeding expectations of 5.8%.
• Other activity indicators suggested that the recovery is spilling over to the demand side heading into Q4. Retail sales expanded by 3.3% y/y, exceeding expectations of 1.6%. Fixed Asset Investments entered positive territory for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak, reaching 0.8% YTD y/y vs expectations of 0.8%.