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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Tuesday 27 July
US: weak durable goods orders but rising consumer confidence on labor

US: Durable goods orders (June): 0.8% m/m vs 2.2% expected (prior: 3.2% revised from 2.3%)

  • After upward revisions to past month, data were below expectations over the month; despite a large rebound in non-defense aircraft orders, other sectors have shown a mixed and volatile picture across sectors.
  • Core orders (orders for capital equipment nondefense ex aircraft) were up by 0.5% m/m after upward revision to prior month data (from 0.1% m/m to 0.5% m/m).
  • Shipments were up by 1% m/m after 0.4% m/m (core orders up by 0.6% after 0.9% m/m); inventories were up by 0.9% m/m (same pace the prior month; up by 0.5% m/m after 1% m/m for core orders).


US: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (May): 16.99% y/y (prior: 15.01%)

  • Monthly changes remained sustained :1.81% m/m after 1.66% m/m the prior month. Prices have increased in all regions.
  • Strong rise in prices are responsible for weakening sales as seen in other housing data recently.


US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (July): 27 vs 20 expected (prior: 22)

  • The index has improved on both current situation and 6-month expectations.
  • Opinions have improved on shipments, capex and particularly on labor and wages on both current situation and expectations; on the opposite, opinions on orders have declined in the two index and still concerns on constraints.


US: Consumer confidence (CB) (July): 129.1 vs 123.8 expected (prior: 128.9 revised from 127.3)

  • Consumer sentiment has rebounded, driven by more positive views on current situation, while expectations were barely unchanged from the prior month. The index was back on its 2019 level.
  • Current situation has improved on labor conditions with current reopening and re-hiring trend.
  • Expectations on future economic situation has marginally eased from the prior month, but views on future employment and income have slightly increased.
  • Willingness to spend has increased after volatile index in the past two months; it has increased for all main items (housing, cars and large items) from the prior month.
  • Inflation expectations (12 M) were quite stable at 6.6% y/y from prior month and after the rise seen in May.
  • Views on labor have improved significantly despite volatile weekly jobless claims.


Eurozone: M3 (June): 8.3% y/y vs 8.2% expected (prior: 8.5% revised from 8.4%)

  • Growth pace has slightly moderated from the prior month. M1 growth pace remained sustained at 11.7% after 11.6% y/y the prior month.
  • Loans to the private sector was up by 3% y/y after 2.8% y/y the prior month; demand for credit from firms has strengthened thanks to accommodative monetary policy and also for credit benefiting from the public guarantee scheme. Otherwise, housing credit remained on sustained pace with still high demand from households.


Brazil: Current account (June): 2791 M$ vs 3800 M$ expected (prior: 3141 M$ revised from 3840 M$)

  • Current account surplus has weakened from the prior month as well as foreign direct investment (from 1598 M USD the prior month to 174 M USD).
Monday 26 July
Weakening German IFO business confidence; sharp fall in US new home sales

US: New home sales (June): 676k vs 796k expected (prior: 724k revised from 769k)

  • Data have shown a strong decline over the month and were back to 2019 level.
  • All districts (4), except one, have shown a monthly decline in sales; inventories were on the rise over the month.
  • Prices have declined on a monthly basis but remained on positive but moderating yearly trend (6% y/y for median prices; 12% y/y for average prices).


Germany: IFO (July): 100.8 vs 102.5 expected (prior: 101.7 revised from 101.8)

  • Business sentiment has declined from the prior month, contrary to expectations and to latest flash PMI.
  • Sentiment on current situation has increased further from the prior month, while expectations were back to their April level.
  • Confidence has declined the most over the month in services, reflecting rising worries from new variant and potential new restrictions or constraints to vaccine; sentiment has also weakened in trade.
  • Confidence has slightly decreased in manufacturing sector from the prior month, as constraints on supply chain remained active.
  • Sentiment has increased in construction.
  • Momentum should moderate after strong beginning of Q3, related to still constraints in industry and uncertainties on new variant. The index has decreased but remained high.


Spain: PPI (June): 2.2% m/m (prior: 1.6%)

  • Prices remained sustained, driven up by energy, basic metal and also some manufacturing prices.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 15.2% y/y the prior month to 15.4% y/y.


Brazil: Consumer confidence (July): 82.2 (prior: 80.9)

  • The index has regained after weakening period and it recovered to level seen in 2020, which remained below the 2019 levels.
  • Current sentiment remained cautious, but expectations have increased from the prior month.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (July): 112.1 (prior: 109.8)

  • Sentiment has increased after it has evolved in a narrow range in the past months.
  • Opinions were better oriented on orders, employment, capex and exports, while views remained a bit cautious on production.
Friday 23 July
Flash PMI business sentiment: diverging trend across sectors and between US, eurozone and UK

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (July): 63.1 vs 62 expected (prior: 62.1)

  • Business sentiment in manufacturing has increased further on improving orders and export, but also on longer supply delivery, pointing towards still existing bottlenecks and shortages.
  • Employment has increased, and prices remained on the rise.


US: Markit Services PMI (July): 59.8 vs 64.5 expected (prior: 64.6)

  • Contrary to expectations, sentiment has declined for the second month in services; momentum has weakened in demand due to higher prices and shortages in stocks; employment was on the rise and costs remained on an upward trend.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (July): 62.6 vs 62.5 expected (prior: 63.4)

  • The preliminary business confidence index was slightly lower than past month and quite in line with expectations; this reflected existing constrains on supply chain and transport despite improving production, orders and exports. Prices remained on the rise.
  • The flash German index was stable from the prior month, while the French index has slightly eased.


Eurozone: PMI Services (July): 60.4 vs 59.3 expected (prior: 58.3)

  • Flash index has increased from the prior month and was better than expected; while the flash index has increased in Germany, it has weakened in France.
  • While eurozone will continue to benefit from reopening, renewed local restrictions and uncertainties should lead to more volatile and moderating index in the coming months.


UK: GFK consumer confidence (July): -7 vs -8 expected (prior: -9)

  • Confidence has improved further, but consumers looked cautious on future global and personal situation.


UK: Retail sales (June): 0.5% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -1.3% revised from -1.4%)

  • Sales were mainly driven by fuels and food, while they were moderate or have declined on a monthly basis in other sectors.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (July): 60.4 vs 62.4 expected (prior: 63.9)

  • Confidence has declined from the prior month. While exports have rebounded, constrains have weighed down on production due to supply chain shortage and Brexit, despite firm demand. Output prices were on the rise, while input prices have moderated.


UK: PMI Services (July): 57.8 vs 62 expected (prior: 62.4)

  • Flash estimate has pointed for second month decline in confidence after strong rebound in May.
  • Covid restrictions, end of stamp duty holiday in housing and slower job creations have driven the decrease of the index.


Poland: Unemployment rate (June): 5.9% vs 6% expected (prior: 6.1%)

  • Unemployment has declined from the highs seen in Jan.21, with unemployment ratio at 6.5%.


Brazil: CPI (July): 0.72% m/m vs 0.65% expected (prior: 0.83%)

  • Monthly change remained sustained due to monthly rises in housing, household goods, and transport-energy sectors.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 8.13% y/y the prior month to 8.59% y/y.


Russia: Central bank has increased its key rates from 5.50% to 6.50% as expected.

  • Inflation pressure continued to drive rational for adjusting in key rates; bank's statement left door opened to another adjustment in rates if needed in the next meeting.
Wednesday 21 July
Switzerland: moderating trend in monetary aggregates

Switzerland: M3 (June): 3.5% y/y (prior: 4.2% revised from 4.1%)

  • Yearly trend in monetary aggregates continued to lower due to base effects; M1 growth was down from 6.6% y/y the prior month to 5.6% y/y and M2 from 4.5% y/y to 3.6% y/y.


Poland: Retail sales (June): 3.5% m/m (prior: 8.2%)

  • Sales remained firm, thanks to clothes and energy sectors. Yearly trend has moderated after peak recovery in April.



Tuesday 20 July
Rebound in US housing starts

US: Housing starts (June): 1643k vs 1590k expected (prior: 1546k revised from 1572k)

  • Building permits: 1598 k vs 1696 k expected; past month data: 1683 k.
  • Housing starts have rebounded more than expected, reaching new high, but prior month data were revised down; data have turned highly volatile in H1-21 due to rising costs and shortage of labor and lands.
  • The decline in building permits suggests potential new decrease in housing starts next month, notably for single family houses after their rebound in June.


Switzerland: Trade balance (June): 5.53 Bn CHF (prior: 4.83Bn)

  • Trade surplus has increased thanks to fall in imports; real exports were down by 3% m/m after 1.9% m/m the prior month; real imports were down by 2.7% m/m after -1.4% m/m.


Germany: PPI (June): 1.3% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 1.5%)

  • Prices remained sustained due to several strong rises in many sectors: fuel, electricity, mining and food prices.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 7.3% y/y the prior month to 8.6% y/y.


Poland: Industrial production (June): 4% m/m vs 4.3% expected (prior: -0.8%)

  • Production has rebounded from the prior month in manufacturing sector (4.7% m/m), being highly volatile in past months.


Poland: PPI (June): 0.7%m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

  • Despite a 2.2% m/m decrease in mining prices over the month, prices were up in other sectors in a 0.5-0.9% m/m range.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 6.6% y/y the prior month to 7% y/y.
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Insight 20.07.2021

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