US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.21): 778k vs 730k expected (prior: 742k)
- Momentum on labour has continued to deteriorate.
- Continuing claims have decreased further from 6372 k the prior week to 6071 k as more people have joined public protection program.
US: Durable goods orders (Oct.): 1.3% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 2.1% revised from 1.9%)
- Orders remained positive, but on slower pace than the prior month; orders in defense sector were volatile past months, but on the rise over the prior month.
- Orders were strong for electronics and metals; orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were up by 0.7% m/m after 1.9% m/m; shipments were up by 1.3% m/m (2.3% m/m for core goods orders) and inventories stayed on stable pace (0.3% m/m).
- Data in manufacturing remained on positive tone.
US: GDP (Q3-20): 33.1% q/q as expected (prior: -31.4%)
- Just minor changes into sub sectors and their contribution to Q3 GDP second estimate.
- Investment was a bit firmer thanks to housing and R&D; on the negative side, net exports have contributed more negatively while the positive support from change in inventories was slightly less positive.
- Slower growth is expected in Q4, in a 1.5%-5% range.
US: Personal income (Oct.): -0.7% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.9%)
- The end of public support has driven disposable income down by 0.8% m/m. Wage was up by 0.7% m/m.
US: Personal spending (Oct.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.4%)
- Spending has slowed down close to expectations. A major reversal was seen in non-durable goods contracting after large rebound past month.
- Saving ratio has continued to decrease from its past record peak in Q2 (more than 30%), at 13.6%, which remains high.
US: Core PCE (Oct.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Yearly trend eased from 1.6% y/y the prior month to 1.4% y/y.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov.): 76.9 vs 77 expected (prior: 81.8)
- Sentiment has finally eased slightly more than initially estimated.
- Opinions on current situation have increased from the prior month, but expectations have sharply decreased. The expectations index was back to its Q2 level.
- Building worries on future financial situation, employment and slower future economic growth have driven expectations lower. Covid wave and uncertainty after US elections have weighed down on confidence.
US: New home sales (Oct.): 999k vs 975k expected (prior: 1002k revised from 959k)
- Sales have marginally decreased after upside revisions to prior month data. Sales remained at historic highs.
- Inventories remained at low level; prices have shown slower pace: 2.5% y/y after 5% y/y the prior month.
US: Wholesale inventories (Oct.): 0.9% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.4%)
- Inventories have increased further for non-durable goods and for autos.
Norway: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 5.2% vs 5.3% expected (prior: 5.3%)
- Unemployment ratio remained at a high level after the rebound seen in Q2-20.
Brazil: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 81.7 (prior: 82.4)
- Confidence has declined from past month, on both current situation and expectations.
- The index remained at a high level after the rebound seen in Q3, but still below its pre-COVID level.