US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 53.3 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.2)
- The index has increased less than expected from the prior month.
- Sentiment has improved on production and domestic orders, while new export orders were weak. Costs have increased further.
US: Markit Services PMI (Oct.): 56 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 54.6)
- The big surprise came from a strong rebound in sentiment in services, diverging from the gloomy environment in services in Europe.
- Sentiment on new business and future activity beyond elections has increased; but sentiment on new orders has slightly decreased.
- Global optimism on next year seems responsible for the rebound in sentiment.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 54.4 vs 53 expected (prior: 53.7)
- Sentiment has increased further in manufacturing contrary to expectations; first estimate of PMI was stable in France from the prior month, while it has increased sharply in Germany (index at 58 vs 55 expected, close to the highs seen in 2018).
- Momentum in manufacturing remained positive, but if demand weakens, some slowdown in the index could be seen in the coming months.
Eurozone: PMI Services (Oct.): 46.2 vs 47 expected (prior: 48)
- A sharp slowdown in confidence in services reflecting rising concerns due to renewed lockdown and curfews in some regions. French PMI has significantly fallen in this first estimate, while it decreased moderately in Germany; a significant fall is also expected in Spain, to be published in final data in the coming weeks.
- Hospitality, accommodation and tourism will be negatively impacted by the new measures adopted in different countries; these sectors are important, but their share of GDP remained below 20% on average.
Poland: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 6.1% as expected (prior: 6.1%)
- The unemployment rate remained stable over the past months, after significant rise in Q2.
- Unemployed has marginally decreased over the past month, but the ratio remained unchanged.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -31 vs -28 expected (prior: -25)
- A sharp decline in confidence, due to deteriorating opinions on future economic situation, and also on personal financial situation.
- Brexit, COVID and new restrictions should weigh done on confidence and activity n Q4.
UK: Retail sales (Sept.): 1.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6%)
- A strong rebound in sales which was broad based, with back to school season and discounts.
UK: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 53.3 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 54.1)
- A more modest decline in business sentiment than expected. Sentiment on production remained well behaved, due to rebuilding orders and inventories ahead of the Brexit and risks on the supply chain.
UK: PMI Services (Oct.): 52.3 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 56.1)
- A sharp decline in sentiment with renewed constraints on social measures and rising contagions; nevertheless, the index remained above the 50 level.
Brazil: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 82.4 (prior: 83.4)
- Confidence has eroded on both expectations and current situation.