US: Personal income (June): -1.1% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: -4.4% revised from -4.2%)
- Disposable income declined by 1.4% m/m; for another month after strong support in April (14.7% m/m); wage was up by 2.2% m/m over the month, after 2.6% m/m the prior month.
US: Personal spending (June): 5.6% m/m vs 5.2% expected (prior: 8.5% revised from 8.2%)
- Spending has rebounded for the second month, still driven by purchases of durable goods (8.7% m/m after 28.8% m/m the prior month).
- Purchases of services were up by another 5.2% m/m.
- Data confirmed consumption entered a more positive and sustained trend at the end of Q2 and beginning of Q3; rebound in consumption could moderate on monthly data, if COVID cases are not under control and if tougher social distancing is extensively adopted in the next months.
US: Core PCE (June): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)
- Yearly trend has slightly eased from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.9% y/y.
US: Chicago PMI (July): 51.9 vs 44 expected (prior: 36.6)
- Sentiment has rebounded more than expected as region has benefited from a better oriented auto sector. The index passed above the 50 level on firmer production and rebounding new orders.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (July): 72.5 vs 72.9 expected (prior: 73.2)
- Final data for July have shown significant pull back in index on current conditions and on expectations These two sub- index have come back to their low levels seen in May, erasing the June rebound.
- The main reasons of concerns were lower future financial situation, lower business and economic future situation, rising concerns on unemployment and fears to lose jobs.
- Willingness to buy large items has declined from the June level, to go back close to its May level, except for housing in which demand stayed on a rising trend.
- Weakening confidence should be a huge incentive for politicians to find quickly an agreement on budget to avoid any double dip in activity in August.
Eurozone: GDP (Q2-20): -12.1% q/q as expected (prior: -3.6%)
- The contraction was in line with expectations and reflected the lockdown of activity in all countries. Q2 results show asymmetric shock in the different euro-members even if consumption and services were all hit in all countries.
Eurozone: CPI estimate (July): 0.4% y/y vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Monthly changes were less negative than expected (-0.3% m/m vs -0.5% m/m expected): energy prices were up by 0.6% m/m, but non-energy good prices were down by 1.9% m/m. core inflation was down by 0.2% m/m; the decrease of German VAT over the month has brought some volatility and fueled monthly negative changes.
- Core inflation was up from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 1.2% y/y.
France: GDP (Q2-20): -13.8% q/q vs -15.2% expected (prior: -5.8% revised from -5.3%)
- The contraction was just less severe than expected; all major sectors have sharply contracted with the lockdown in place.
- Consumption was down by 11% q/q: a strong decline in services (-15%q/q), while food purchases was down by only -0.5% q/q.
- Investment has sharply fallen on all components (-17.8% q/q); net trade contribution was negative (-2.3 pp) while inventories have positively contributed (by 0.6 pp).
France: CPI (July): 0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Energy prices were up by 1%m/m, while food prices were down by 6% m/m.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.2% y/y to 0.9% y/y.
France: Consumer spending (June): 9% m/m vs 6.8% expected (prior: 37.4% revised from 36.6%)
- Another strong rebound in monthly sales with the end of the lockdown; all sectors have shown a strong rebound; the strongest one was in autos up by 50.6% m/m after 175% m/m the prior month.
- Sales could moderate on a monthly basis in August if COVID cases and leisure sectors face renewed constraints.
Germany: Retail sales (June): -1.6% m/m vs -3% expected (prior: 12.7% revised from 13.9%)
- Sales (ex-autos) have slightly declined after a strong rebound; the monthly decrease was centered on food and IT goods, while other sectors remained on a positive, even more moderate, monthly trend.
Italy: GDP (Q2-20): -12.4% q/q vs -15.5% expected (prior: -5.4% revised from -5.3%)
- The contraction was less severe than feared; details by sector will be published later in the month, but all components of demand have sharply declined during the quarter.
Italy: CPI (July): -0.6% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: 0%)
- Preliminary data have pointed towards a monthly decline in prices of food, clothes and communication prices.
- Yearly trend has rebounded from -0.4% y/y the prior month to 0.9% y/y.
Spain: GDP (Q2-20): -18.5% q/q vs -16.6% expected (prior: -5.2%)
- Domestic demand was heavily hit by the lockdown; consumption was down by 21% q/q and investment down by 22.3% q/q. A rebound is expected on Q3 but renewed local lockdown could affect activity in tourism and leisure and reduce the magnitude of the Q3 recovery.
Poland: CPI (July): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)
- Food and electricity prices were down over the month, while fuel prices have rebounded by 2.3% m/m.
- Yearly trend remained quite stable at 3.1% y/y after 3.3% y/y the prior month.
UK: Nationwide house prices (July): 1.7% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -1.6% revised from -1.4%)
- A strong monthly rebound in prices; yearly trend has also been restored, prices being up by 1.5% y/y after -0.1% y/y the prior month.
Norway: Unemployment rate (July): 4.9% vs 4.4% expected (prior: 4.8%)
- After large decrease from 9.5% to 6.4% (May) and 4.8% in June, the unemployment rate has slightly regained over the month.