Market insight

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.30): 203k vs 215k expected (prior: 213k)

• Continuing claims: 1693 k after 1642 k the prior week.

US: Trade balance (Oct.): -47.2 bn USD vs -48.5 bn expected (prior: -51.1 bn revised from -52.5 bn)

• Deficit has declined, as well as deficit ex oil sector.
• Exports remained on negative trend (-0.2% m/m) and the fall was broad-based, except for industrial supply goods; imports were sharply down ( -1.7% m/m); all imports have fallen across sectors, except capital goods.
• The decline in deficit was mainly driven by a sharp fall in imports over past months.

US: Factory orders (Oct.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.6%)

• Orders for capital goods non-defense and ex aircraft were up by 1.1% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Total shipments were flat over the month and inventories slightly up by 0.1% m/m.
• Despite volatility in business surveys and in orders, momentum has slightly improved for capex.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.6% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Except food, monthly sales decreased in all sectors in Oct. and past month data were also revised down.
• Sales were heavily down over the month in Germany, Denmark and Finland; yearly trend has moderated from 2.7% y/y prior month to 1.4% y/y.

Germany: Factory orders (Oct.): -0.4% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.3%)

• After upward revisions to strong past month data, orders have fallen over the month, particularly domestic orders (-3.2% m/m), while foreign orders stayed on a 1.5% m/m regular rise.
• The fall in domestic orders was due to a large reversal in domestic capital goods and a modest decrease in consumer goods orders.
• While foreign orders have improved, domestic demand remained weak and fragile.

US: ISM Non manufacturing (Nov.): 53.9 vs 54.5 expected (prior: 54.7)

• The decline was slightly larger than expected but the details were a tad firmer thanks to improvements in the new orders (for the second consecutive month) and employment (up 5.1 pts since September) components. The sharp decline in business activity (-5.4 to 51.6, lowest since November 2009) explains the disappointing headline index.
• The service sector, which accounts for the bulk of US economic activity continues to expand, but at a markedly slower pace than it did in 2018 when the index averaged 58.9. This is consistent with the deceleration in real GDP growth to 2%.

US: ADP Employment change (67): 67k vs 135k expected (prior: 121k revised from 125k)

• The fact that job creation slowed across all company sizes indicates some underlying weakness in November job growth, which will probably be reflected in non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Eurozone: PMI Services (Nov. F.): 51.9 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 53.4)

• A tad better than the flash estimate (thanks to Germany) but still well below October's level. The index fell to 50.4 from 52.2 in Italy but edged slightly higher in Spain to 53.2.

UK: PMI Services (Nov. F.): 49.3 vs 48.6 expected (prior: 50.0)

• The final PMIs for November were revised higher for services and manufacturing, but both series remain below 50.

Russia: PMI Services (Nov.): 55.6 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 55.8)

• A tad lower than last month, which marked the highest print in one year.

UK: BRC retail sales (Nov.): -4.9% y/y vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Except food, sales have plunged over the month, refueling downside risks on activity in Q4.

Switzerland: CPI (Nov.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Energy prices have sharply decreased, while prices of clothes, houses and furniture have rebounded during the month.
• Core inflation was flat over the month and the yearly trend has accelerated from 0.4% the prior month to 0.7% y/y. (headline inflation was still down by 0.1% y/y after -0.3% y/y the prior month).

Eurozone: PPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Energy prices have rebounded over the past two months, but their yearly trend has turned more negative.
• Yearly trend has deteriorated from -1.2% y/y the prior month to -1.9% y/y; core PPIs were up by 0.3% y/y (0.4% y/y the prior month).

Brazil: GDP (Q3-19): 0.6% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.4%)

• Growth trend has accelerated in Q3 and was revised up for Q2. While exports have underperformed, investment has rebounded, and consumption was also sustained in Q3.
• Growth was up by 1.2% y/y in Q3, after 1.1% y/y in Q2.

Turkey: CPI (Nov.): 0.38% m/m vs 0.75% expected (prior: 2%)

• Yearly trend has accelerated from 8.55% y/y to 10.56% y/y. Core inflation accelerated from 6.67% y/y to 9.25% y/y.
• Base effects (due to commodities and currency changes) have turned less favorable in terms of inflation and could interfere with the central bank easing stance.

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov F): 52.6 vs 52.2 expected (prior: 51.3)

• The index has improved and was supported by quicker expansions in production and new orders.

US: ISM Manufacturing (Nov): 48.1 vs 49.2 expected (prior: 48.3)

• Contrary to expectations, sentiment has eased further.
• Sentiment has decreased on inventories, employment and new export orders.; it has increased on production, prices paid, suppliers deliveries and imports. Sentiment on new orders dropped to levels saw in Sept/August.
• PMI was more constructive than ISM.

US: Construction spending (Oct): -0.8% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from 0.5%)

• Nonresidential construction and residential sector stayed under contraction, -0.7% m/m and -0.9% m/m respectively.

UK: PMI Manufacturing (Nov.): 48.9 vs 48.3 expected (prior: 49.6)

• Sentiment has deteriorated as political and economic uncertainty continues.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Nov F): 46.9 vs 46.6 expected (prior: 45.9)

• Sentiment has increased from prior month and it was slightly better than expected.
• At the country level, sentiment has deteriorated in Italy, while it has rebounded in Germany, France and Spain.

Russia: PMI Manufacturing (Nov): 45.6 vs 48.1 expected (prior: 47.2)

• Sentiment has deteriorated and manufacturing firms have continued to highlight challenging domestic and foreign demand conditions, with the sector recording its worst performance since May 2009.
• The deterioration was driven by a slump in new business and subsequent drop in production.

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov): 46.7 vs 46.3 expected (prior: 45.3)

• Sentiment has slightly improved but the manufacturing sector remains mired in its steepest downturn since 2009, led by falling inflows of new orders.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Nov): 49.5 (prior: 49)

• Sentiment has improved but new orders moderated at a softer pace as client demand remained fragile.

Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (Nov): 48.8 as expected (prior: 49.4)