1. Investment expertise
  2. Market insight
Menu

Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
Tuesday 19 March
German investor confidence improves again

US: Factory orders (Jan.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • The headline is lower than expected but growth in core capital goods orders was revised slightly up in December.

 

Germany: Zew (March): -3.6 vs -11.0 expected (prior: -13.4)

  • Current situation: 11.1 vs 13.0 expected (prior: 15.0)
  • Investor confidence improved for the fifth consecutive month as global risks subsided.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Jan.): 3.4% y/y vs 3.2% expected (prior: 3.5% revised from 3.4%)

  • This adds to evidence that the UK job market remains solid.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jan.): 3.9% vs 4.0% expected (prior: 4.0%)

  • Jobless claims change (Feb.): +27k after +15.7k in January
  • A bit ironically, UK unemployment rate falls to lowest since 1975.
Monday 18 March
US: improving sales prospects in housing

US: NAHB housing market index (March): 62 vs 63 expected (prior: 62)

  • Sentiment index stayed stable; prospects on sales have improved and seemed to progressively recover.
  • Some easing in interest rates has relatively improved some indicators, but the situation remains globally mixed in the sector.

 

Poland: Current account (Jan.): 2316Mio EUR vs 1588Mio expected (prior: -1400Mio)

  • Trade balanced has shown a mild surplus, thanks to a a larger rebound in exports.

 

Poland: Core inflation (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Inflation was up by 1% y/y after 0.8% y/y the prior month.

 

Russia: Industrial production (Feb.): 4.1% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.1%)

  • Production has rebounded thanks to the manufacturing sector (6.6% m/m; 4.6% y/y). Other sectors remained volatile and the trend remains fragile.
Friday 15 March
US: mixed US data in industry, but rising households confidence

US: NY Empire manufacturing (March): 3.7 vs 10 expected (prior: 8.8)

  • Sentiment has decreased on present and future activity, notably on orders.
  • This index points towards a volatile and moderate growth ahead.

 

US: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.6%)

  • Activity was sustained in electricity and utilities, but it has contracted in manufacturing (-0.4% m/m), particularly on machinery.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Jan.): 7581 vs 7225 expected (prior: 7479 revised from 7335)

  • Job openings have recovered after past month decrease, driven mainly by rises in different services. Hirings and separations have increased in parallel.
  • Demand for labor remains high.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (March): 97.8 vs 95.6 expected (prior: 93.8)

  • Sentiment on current situation and expectations has recovered close to the levels seen in past Oct.-Nov.
  • Views on personal financial situation and on net assets have rebounded from past months; expectations have rebounded from the past months.
  • Willingness to buy houses has increased, while they remained stable for other big items.

 

Eurozone: CPI (Feb.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -1%)

  • The monthly rebound in inflation has been confirmed, mainly driven by energy prices.
  • Inflation trend remains in a 1.4-1.5% y/y range over the past 3 months. Core inflation has slightly eased from 1.1% y/y to 1% y/y.

 

Germany: Wholesale price (Feb.): 0.3% m/m (prior: -0.7%)

  • The yearly trend has slightly rebounded from 1.1% y/y to 1.6% y/y.

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Jan.): 1.8% m/m (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.8%)

  • While domestic orders remained in contraction, foreign orders have sharply rebounded.
  • Yearly trend in orders and sales was less depressed than past month.

 

Poland: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Prices of food communication and transport have driven the monthly rebound.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 0.7% y/y in Jan. to 1.2% y/y in Feb.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 13.5% vs 12.8% expected (prior: 12.3%)

  • Unemployed stayed on a regular rising trend.
Thursday 14 March
US: depressed new home sales in Jan.; some recovery in Brazil and Turkey

US: Initial jobless claims (March 9): 229k vs 225k expected (prior: 223k)

  • Continuing claims: 1776 k after 1758 k prior week.

 

US: New home sales (Jan.): 607k vs 622k expected (prior: 652k revised from 621k)

  • Sales were depressed at the beginning of the year, except in one region; past month data were revised up.
  • Average prices have decreased on both monthly and yearly basis, but remained high in absolute terms.

 

UK: RICS house price balance (Feb.): -28% vs -24% expected (prior: -22%)

  • Sentiment on housing market and prices remained depressed.

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.7%)

  • Import prices were up by 0.5% m/m, while producer prices were flat over the month.
  • Yearly trend remained negative for both categories, and down by 0.7% y/y globally.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 6.2% as expected (prior: 6%)

  • Unemployed is on a rising trend since last Nov.

 

France: CPI (Feb.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.6%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed; the rebound in energy prices has been balanced by lower prices in other sectors.
  • Inflation trend has slightly rebounded from 1.4% y/y to 1.6% y/y.

 

Germany: CPI (Feb.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: -0.8%)

  • Food, clothes and electricity prices have driven the recovery from past month; yearly trend has stabilized at 1.7% y/y.

 

Brazil: Retail sales (Jan.): 1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1.7%)

  • A broad-based recovery after severe fall in Dec.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (Jan.): 1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.3% revised from -1.4%)

  • Activity has rebounded in all major sectors after depressed figures for several months.
  • Yearly trend has turned less depressed from -10% y/y past month to -7.3% y/y.
Wednesday 13 March
US: durable goods orders and construction spending have rebounded

US: PPI (Feb.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • Prices stayed moderate; the rebound in energy prices was more than balanced by weak/moderate prices in other sectors.
  • Core PPIs have also shown some moderation (0.1% m/m). Yearly trend has moderated from 2.5% y/y past month to 2.3% y/y and from 2% y/y to 1.9% y/y for headline PPIs.

 

US: Durable goods orders (Jan.): 0.4% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.2%)

  • Orders for non-defense ex aircraft have sharply rebounded by 0.8% m/m after a decrease in past months.
  • Global shipments were down by 0.5% m/m and inventories were up by 0.4% m/m.
  • A renewed positive signal in favor of capex.

 

US: Construction spending (Jan): 1.3% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.6%)

  • Spending in residential was down by 0.3% m/m and public construction up by 4.9% m/m (largest increase since March 2004).
  • Government construction spending was 24.5% of total in January. Federal construction rose 4.2% m/m.

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (Jan.): 1.4% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -0.9%)

  • Production of energy, consumer and capital goods has rebounded after several month of decline.
  • Fragilities remain in place, but the yearly trend was less depressed, from -4.2% y/y in past month to -1.1% y/y.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (Q4-18): 10.6% vs 10.5% expected (prior: 10.3% revised from 10.2%)

  • After regular improvement, trend has reversed in the decrease in unemployment.
  • As the economy entered a technical recession, trend in employment has deteriorated.

 

Spain: CPI (Feb.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -1.7%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed up by 0.2% m/m, due to rising costs in energy and transport, while prices of clothes and housing have decreased over the month.
  • Yearly trend has stabilized at 1.1% y/y.

 

Brazil: Industrial production (Jan.): -0.8% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • While production of durable goods was slightly up, production has eased in other sectors and collapsed for capital goods.
  • The yearly trend has turned less depressed from -3.6% y/y past month to -2.6%.

 

Macro economic

The Chief Economist's weekly update

To help you navigate through the economic news, here is a summary of last week’s main events and what to look out for next week.
Read more

Institutional clients

With a team of more than 200 people, UBP Asset Management has built an on-the-ground presence in the world’s major markets through organic growth and selected partnerships.

Our fund range

Funds

View all our funds.

Insight 28.02.2019

Oil market review

Oil prices are up more than 23% year to date, with WTI increasing by more than USD 11 in under two months, reaching USD 56 towards the end of February.