US: NFIB Small Business optimism (March): 98.2 vs 98.5 expected (prior: 95.8)
- Business sentiment has rebounded further but remained below expectations.
- Sentiment has improved on future economy, sales and employment; the sentiment was cautious on capex, inventories and earnings.
- Confidence is progressively rebuilding after large swings seen in 2020 with a sharp rebound in Q3 followed by a decline in Q4.
US: CPI (March): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4%)
- The rebound in prices were mainly due to energy costs (5% m/m) and transports (2.7% m/m); services were up by 0.4% m/m due to lodging prices; core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
- The yearly trend has accelerated from 1.7% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y and core inflation from 1.3% y/y to 1.6% y/y.
- This rebound was widely expected and is mainly due to base effects on energy prices (up by 22% y/y); next month another step in the rebound in prices is also expected and the yearly trend should reach more than 3% y/y with same base effects.
- More time will be needed to validate the “transitory” scenario mentioned by the Fed regarding inflation, as more pent up demand could be seen in Q3 maintaining inflation close or above 2% after the energy base effect in Q2.
UK: BRC retail sales (March): 20.3% y/y vs 12% expected (prior: 9.5%)
- Non-food sales have strongly rebounded ahead of the gradual reopening of the economy; as several shops remained closed, the survey estimated the re-calibrated annual figure including wider sample of shops to be closer to 8.4% y/y.
UK: Industrial production (Feb.): 1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.8% revised from -1.5%)
- A strong rebound in the manufacturing production (1.3% m/m); within manufacturing, the rebound was driven by a surge in production of durable and equipment goods over the month; on the opposite, production has contracted in energy, mining and non-durable goods sectors.
- Separately, the monthly proxy for GDP was up by 0.4% m/m (vs 0.5% m/m expected) after -2.2% m/m the prior month. This rebound was fueled by services and the wholesale-retail sectors.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (March): 4% (prior: 4.4%)
- A strong decline in unemployment ratio over the month.
Germany: Wholesale price (March): 1.7% m/m (prior: 1.4%)
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.3% y/y the prior month to 4.4% y/y.
Italy: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1%)
- Activity in electricity and mining has contracted over the month, while production in manufacturing was up by 0.4% m/m.
- Within manufacturing, production of textiles and pharma has rebounded while production of autos declined. On main sectors, only production of non-durable goods was up over the month, reflecting the impact of the lockdown.
Germany: Zew (April): 70.7 vs 79 expected (prior: 76.6)
- Expectations have declined from high level on the prior month in the financial business sentiment Zew index. Sentiment on current situation has improved from the prior month, being less negative.
- By sector, sentiment has increased from the prior month for autos, chemical and machinery sectors, while it particularly declined in steel, services, retail and construction sectors.
- The weakening sentiment probably reflects still uncertainties about the extension of the lockdown and diverging views from Federal and local German States.
Poland: Current account (Feb.): 1619Mio EUR vs 1602Mio expected (prior: 3341Mio revised from 3258Mio)
- Trade surplus has declined over the month as imports have sharply accelerated; net income has also declined further over the month.
Brazil: Retail sales (Feb.): 4.1% m/m vs 1.8% expected (prior: -2.2% revised from -2.1%)
- A strong rebound from the prior month due to autos, clothes, furniture and food sales. Momentum in economy has improved past month, but renewed COVID cases refueled downside risks on domestic demand in the short run.
Turkey: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)
- Production has strongly rebounded in capital goods, while it has contracted in consumer, intermediate and energy sectors.
- Within capital goods, the rebound was driven by IT and vehicles segments.
- The yearly trend in total production has moderated from 11.3% y/y the prior month to 8.8% y/y.