US: Non-farm payrolls (March): -701k vs -132k expected (prior: 274k revised from 273k)
- Labour has deteriorated more than expected from past month, and the unemployment ratio has increased from 3.5 % the previous month to 4.4%.
- Payrolls destruction came close to the levels seen in 2008, down by 800 k.
- Except the public sector, jobs have decreased in all sectors; the largest fall was seen in leisure-hotels, down by 459 k versus 44 k the prior month; other large reversal in jobs seen in construction, manufacturing, trade and retail, and business services.
- Aggregated hours worked have decreased, but still moderately (-1.1% m/m).
- Wage growth has slowed down for average weekly earnings (-0.2%m/m; 2.2% y/y), while hourly wages remained on a stable trend (3.1% y/y).
- The survey has not yet accounted the most recent negative developments, meaning other negative data next month and probably a more significant rise in the unemployment ratio.
US: ISM Non manufacturing (March): 52.5 vs 43 expected (prior: 57.3)
- The index was more resilient than expected, but details pointed towards deteriorating situation: falling sentiment on activity, new exports orders and employment (all below the 50 level), while total orders have less decreased; as seen in other indices, the rise in delivery has artificially boosted the index, but it pointed to disruption in the chain supply. The index may fall further next month.
US: Markit Services PMI (March): 39.8 vs 38.5 expected (prior: 49.9)
- A sharp decrease from past month, due to falling activity, export orders, prices and employment.
Eurozone: PMI Services (March): 26.4 vs 28.2 expected (prior: 52.6)
- Confidence has weakened more than expected at eurozone level and in all major countries; the sharpest fall was seen in Italy (from 52.1 to 17.4).
- With COVID-19 developments and current lockdown, sentiment has fallen on activity, orders and on employment.
- The index is now significantly lower than in 2008 (around 39) pointing towards sharper recession.
Eurozone: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.9% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)
- Sales were stronger than expected ahead of the quarantine, boosted by food and pharma sales; on-line sales were also on strong pace over the month.
Spain: Industrial production (Feb.): 0% m/m (prior: 0% revised from 0.2%)
- Production has sharply fallen in capital goods and energy, while it was moderately up in consumer and intermediate goods.
- The yearly change stayed negative (-1.3% y/y). A sharp fall is expected in March.
UK: PMI Services (March): 34.5 vs 34.8 expected (prior: 53.2)
- A larger fall than expected due to shut down and cancelled orders; sentiment has fallen on activity, orders and employment.
- The index is well below its 2008 level (40), pointing to even sharper recession.
Russia: PMI Services (March): 37.1 vs 45.8 expected (prior: 52)
- Large fall in sentiment as seen in other countries.
Brazil: PMI Services (March): 37.6 (prior: 50.9)
- With business shutdown and cancelled orders, sentiment has fallen well below the 2008 low level.
Turkey: CPI (March): 0.57% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.35%)
- Prices have rebounded for food and health products and driven up the monthly rise despite falling energy and communication costs.
- The yearly trend has moderated from 12.37 % y/y to 11.86 % y/y.