Market insight

Eurozone: Industrial production (Nov.): -1.7% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• IP y/y: -3.3% vs -2.1% expected (prior: 1.2%)
• Unfortunately this sharp decline cannot be attributed to a fall in energy production as energy output was only down 0.6% m/m in November, nor primarily to the auto industry as car production fell only slightly more than aggregate production (- 1.8%). Capital goods production fell by a particularly steep 2.3%.
• This adds to evidence that Q4 GDP growth in the eurozone was weak.

Turkey: Industrial production (Nov.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -2.2% revised from -1.9%)

• IP y/y: -6.5% vs -5.4% expected (prior: -5.7%)
• Worst annual decline since November 2009.

US: CPI (Dec): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• The plunge in gasoline prices partly explains the m/m fall in headline.
• Energy prices, transport have fallen during the month; on the opposite, services remained steady (up by 0.3% m/m) and housing by 0.4% m/m.
• Energy prices have driven trend in headline prices lower, from 2.2% to 1.9% y/y, while core prices remained on a firm trend, unchanged at 2.2% y/y. In this environment, the continued stability of core inflation could give the Fed more room to pause.

France: Business sentiment (Bank of France) (Dec): 103 vs 100 expected (prior: 101)

• Sentiment has slightly rebounded in manufacturing but unchanged on services and construction.
• In manufacturing, sentiment on production, deliveries and orders has improved from past month.

Italy: Industrial production (Nov): -1.6% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

• On a y/y basis: -2.6% vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1%)
• Energy prices have increased while consumer goods, capital goods and intermediate goods have declined.

UK: Industrial production (Nov): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.6%)

• On a y/y basis: -1.5% vs -0.7% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.8%)
• Manufacturing production: -0.3% vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.9%); -1.1% y/y vs -0.7% expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -1%).

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan.5): 216k vs 226k expected (prior: 233k revised from 231k)

• Continuing claims: 1722 k after 1750 k past week.

France: Industrial production (Nov.): -1.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.2%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 1.4% m/m, due to a sharp fall in energy and in the auto sectors; other sectors, except construction was also under a mild contraction.
• A seen in Germany, trend in industrial production has turned sharply negative (-2.2% y/y).

UK: BRC retail sales (Dec.): -0.7% y/y vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.5%)

• Non-food sales remained in a negative trend.
• Domestic demand is at risk, while visibility on political situation has decreased further.

Sweden: Industrial production (Nov.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.8%)

• After the rebound seen in Sept.-Oct., activity has contracted in industry and also in services.
• Signals of slowdown have developed and central bank may pause in its normalization process.

Norway: CPI (Dec.): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Trend has not changed as headline remained at 3.5% y/y and core inflation at 2.1% y/y.

Norway: PPI incl. Oil (Dec.): -3.5% m/m (prior: -3.2%)

• Trend has declined from 14.9% y/y to 7.8% y/y.

Switzerland: CPI (Dec.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• A large decrease in energy prices (-7% m/m), food prices and in imported goods have more than compensated the rise in clothes (1.5% m/m). Core inflation was flat over the month, and slightly up from 0.5% y/y to 0.6% y/y.
• Yearly trend in headline has moderated from 0.9% y/y to 0.7% y/y.

France: Consumer confidence (Dec.): 87 vs 90 expected (prior: 91 revised from 92)

• Sentiment has deteriorated at a time of rising social protests; opinions on financial situation and unemployment have sharply decreased.
• Launch of measures in favor of purchasing power at past year end could give back some support to confidence and spending.

Germany: Trade Balance (Nov.): 20.5bn EUR vs 18.6bn expected (prior: 18.9bn revised from 18.3bn)

• Current account balance: EUR 21.4 bn after EUR 18.9 bn.
• Exports: -0.4% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month); imports: -1.6% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month).
• On a yearly basis, imports were up by 3.6%, while exports were flat.

Italy: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 10.5% as expected (prior: 10.6%)

• After the rebound the prior month, the ratio has slightly eased.

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 7.9% vs 8.1% expected (prior: 8% revised from 8.1%)

• The first time since the financial crisis the ratio passes below 8%.