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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

giovedì 17 ottobre
US: lower than expected housing starts, Philly Fed and industrial production

US: Housing starts (Sept.): 1256k vs 1320k expected (prior: 1386k revised from 1364k)

  • Building permits: 1387 k after 1425 k prior month. While data for multifamily houses have plunged, single family data were stable over the month for both housing starts and building permits.

  • Total housing starts were highly volatile over the past two months, but absolute numbers remained close to Q2 levels.


US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.12): 214k vs 215k expected (prior: 210k)

  • Continuing claims: 1679 k after 1689 k past week.


US: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.6%)

  • Auto production has shown a sharp contraction, probably related to the strike at GM; only the defense sector has shown a solid 1.1% m/m rise in production. Production in materials and in business equipment was also negative.

  • Despite high volatility on monthly data, industrial production remained slightly higher than in past June, but momentum remained fragile.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (Oct.): 5.6 vs 7.6 expected (prior: 12)

  • Sentiment has weakened, but new orders have slightly increased; the 6-month index has regained after the fall seen past month, thanks to new orders, shipments and capex.

  • The index was volatile past months, back to levels seen in Q1 and Q2 and close to the 2015-2016 period; sub-indices remain globally constructive on new orders.


UK: Retail sales (Sept.): 0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.2%)

  • Sales ex auto fuel were up by 0.2% m/m, thanks to firmer sales of clothes and household goods. Yearly trend has increased from 2.6% y/y to 3.1% y/y.


Switzerland: Trade balance (Sept.): 4.02 Bn CHF (prior: 1.72Bn)

  • Real exports have rebounded by 2.5% m/m after -3.9% m/m the prior month; real imports were down by 1.3% m/m after 1.4% m/m the prior month.


Sweden: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 7.4% (prior: 7.4% revised from 7.1%)

  • The unemployment rate stayed stable after a rebound over the past two months.


mercoledì 16 ottobre
Disappointing US retail sales in September but strong rise in homebuilders' sentiment

US: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)

  • Ex auto & gasoline: 0.0% vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.1%)

  • Consumption hit a soft patch in September, but this comes after four consecutive months of strong sales averaging a strong 0.5% increase per month. Yearly trend remains robust at 4%.

  • Control retail sales that is used in GDP calculation GDP was unchanged (vs +0.3% expected), but strong gains in prior months brought its Q3 annualized q/q change to 6.8%, the second strongest gain since Q2 2014.

  • This weakness should be temporary as fundamentals for the consumer remain supportive: job gains, increase in real wages, low interest rates and net worth near record highs.


US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 71 vs 68 expected (prior: 68)

  • Homebuilder sentiment rose for the fourth consecutive month and climbed to the highest level since February 2018 thanks to cheaper borrowing costs and a still solid job market.


UK: CPI (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Moderate inflation, with high volatility at the sector level; lower prices in energy and transport versus a rebound in clothes, education and communication. Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m

  • Yearly trend remained unchanged at 1.7% y/y. Core inflation has slightly increased from 1.5% y/y to 1.7% y/y.

  • Brexit negotiations will have an impact on GBP and on imported inflation. Current data are well in line with BoE's target.


UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): -0.8% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.1%)

  • All products have shown a decline in prices, partly related to change in currency and also to lower food and energy prices.

  • Yearly trend has sharply decreased from -0.9% y/y to -2.8% y/y.


UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.1%)

  • Prices were also declining in food, energy and in some manufacturing sectors, but at a lower extend than in input prices.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 1.7% y/y the prior month to 1.2% y/y.


Eurozone: CPI (Sept. F.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Food and services prices have eased from past month.

  • Final inflation has eased more than in first estimate, from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.8% y/y. Core inflation was up 0.4% m/m and up 1% y/y after 0.9% y/y the prior month.


Italy: Industrial orders (Aug.): 1.1% m/m (prior: -2.8% revised from -2.9%)

  • Domestic and foreign orders have both slightly regained after depressed numbers; yearly trend remained depressed, down by 10% y/y.

  • Industrial sales were down 0.3% m/m, with foreign and domestic sales both on the decline. Yearly trend has also deteriorated, down by 2% y/y.


Italy: CPI (Sept.): 1.4% m/m (prior: 0%)

  • Inflation has rebounded, driven higher by prices of clothes, while food and energy declined.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 0.5% y/y to 0.2% y/y.

martedì 15 ottobre
UK labor losing momentum on job creations and on wage growth

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 3.9% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8%)

  • Claimant count: stable at 3.3%; jobless claims: 21.1 k after 16.3 k the prior month. Over the past 3 months, employment has turned negative, showing a contraction by 56 k.

  • Despite still low unemployment rate, labor market has shown slightly deteriorating job creations and rising trend in jobless claims.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 3.8% y/y vs 4% expected (prior: 3.9% revised from 4%)

  • Trend in wages has eased after a high pace reached over the past two months. This easing was broad based across sectors, including construction and finance in which the rises were the most significant.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Prices were down by 2% y/y after -1.9% y/y the prior month.

  • Lower oil, food and textile prices have driven imported prices into negative territory (-4% y/y). Producer prices have followed the trend but at a slower pace, being down by 1% y/y.


France: CPI (Sept.): -0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Final data confirmed the decrease seen in preliminary estimates. Despite strong rise in clothes, lower food, energy and services prices have driven the decrease. Yearly trend has eased from 1.3% y/y the prior month to 1.1% y/y.


Germany: Zew (Oct.): -22.8 vs -26.4 expected (prior: -22.5)

  • Expectations have marginally eased from the prior month, but sentiment on current conditions has fallen significantly.


Poland: CPI (Sept.): 0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Decreasing food and oil prices, balanced by firmer education and clothes prices.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 2.9% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 13.9% (prior: 13%)

  • After a decrease in Q2, unemployed has rebounded, due to rising youth unemployment and rising labor force;employment has continued to grow but at a low pace.

lunedì 14 ottobre
Eurozone: industrial production slightly better oriented

Eurozone: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Production was firmer than expected, but details offered highly contrasted picture; the rebound came from production in capital goods (1.2% m/m) and modest recovery in intermediate sector; the production in energy and consumer goods has shown a modest contraction.

  • The yearly trend has turned more negative, from -2.1% y/y the prior month to -2.8% y/y


Turkey: Industrial production (Aug.): -2.8% m/m (prior: 4.3%)

  • Except energy and computer, production has reversed part of the rebound seen the prior month.

  • The yearly trend has come back to -3.6% y/y; this contraction was also seen past June and in April, pointing towards highly volatile activity.

venerdì 11 ottobre
US consumer confidence on the rise

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Oct.): 96 vs 92 expected (prior: 93.2)

  • Preliminary data have revealed a strong rebound of sentiment on current conditions, but only a modest rise of expectations.

  • Current conditions index was back to its highest level of the year; expectations were on the middle of the range seen this year.

  • Sentiment has improved on personal finance; expectations on future economic situation and employment remained moderate below Q2; willingness to buy large items has significantly rebounded.

  • Inflation expectations have moderated: from 2.8% y/y to 2.5% y/y at 1-year; from 2.4% y/ to 2.2% y/y at 5-10y


Germany: CPI (Sept.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Despite a strong rebound in prices of clothes, inflation has declined on lower energy prices.

  • Yearly trend has moderated from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.9% y/y.


Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • A monthly rebound of clothes, but prices in other sectors were flat or slightly negative.

  • Yearly trend has moderated further, from 0.4% y/y the prior month to 0.2% y/y.


Macro economic

The Chief Economist's weekly update

To help you navigate through the economic news, here is a summary of last week’s main events and what to look out for next week.

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Analisi 14.10.2019

Convertible bonds add convexity to your portfolio

Amid volatile markets and concerns over the global economic outlook, how can investors mitigate the risk of capital loss while keeping the door open to capital gains? The answer lies in convertible bonds strategies, given the specific risk-return profile of this asset class.