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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
venerdì 26 aprile
US: inventories and net trade underpinned Q1 GDP, while domestic demand moderated

US: GDP (Q1-19): 3.2% q/q vs 2.3% expected (prior: 2.2%)

  • Growth has strongly rebounded on Q1, but mainly due to rising inventories (0.65 pp contribution) and net trade export (1pp contribution); on the opposite domestic demand has weakened, from 2.1% q/q to 1.4% q/q.
  • Consumption has slowed down from 2.5% q/q in Q4 to 1.2% q/q; the slowdown on durable goods (-5.3% q/q) has been partly compensated by resilient service consumption (2% q/q). This moderation in consumption has led to contracting imports (-3.7% q/q), while exports were up by 3.7% q/q.
  • Investment was flat on equipment (0.2% q/q), has decreased in structure (-0.8% q/q) and housing (-2.8% q/q), but accelerated for intellectual property (8.6% q/q).
  • Core PCE deflator has eased from 1.8% to 1.3% y/y.
  • In Q2, domestic demand is expected to rebound close to 2%, while total GDP growth could slow down on lower inventories and net trade contributions after record levels in Q1.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Apr.): 97.2 vs 97 expected (prior: 98.4)

  • Final index has fallen less than previously expected. Views on current situation and expectations have eased from past month. After the fall in Jan., the index has recovered to the levels seen in Q2 and Q3-18.
  • Inflation expectations stayed closer to past month levels at 2.5% y/y for 1y and 2.3% for 5-10y.
  • While views on the economy remained positive from past month, worries were coming from their financial situation and retirement prospects; willingness to buy homes and cars were slightly volatile, but remained close to past month level and far above the low levels seen on Jan.

 

France: Consumer confidence (Apr.): 96 vs 97 expected (prior: 96)

  • Sentiment is mixed, with less negative views on inflation and financial situation but rising concerns on unemployment.
  • The index has recovered from the fall seen since Oct, but it remained below the level seen at the same period last year.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (March): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Momentum has improved over the past months, but the yearly trend remained volatile and it has moderated (1.9% y/y).
giovedì 25 aprile
US orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft have rebounded

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr.20): 230k vs 200k expected (prior: 193k revised from 192k)

  • Continuing claims: 1655 k after 1654 k past week.
  • A rebound in jobless claims which seemed to be due to Easter holiday.

 

US: Durable goods orders (March): 2.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1.6%)

  • Orders have rebounded thanks to the highly volatile aircraft sector; core orders (capital goods non-defense ex aircraft) were up by 1.3% m/m (0.2% m/m expected; past month data revised up from -0.1 % to 0.1% m/m).
  • Shipments were up by 0.3% m/m and inventories also up by 0.3% m/m; for core orders, shipments were down by 0.2% m/m and inventories up by 0.7% m/m.
  • Core orders (a proxy for capex) show some recovery and have stopped the monthly decline in place since last Sept.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Apr.): 95.8 vs 95 expected (prior: 94)

  • Sentiment has improved on personal financial situation, but views on current and future economic situation have slightly decreased.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Apr.): 108.4 vs 107 expected (prior: 107.5)

  • Confidence has slightly recovered from past month low levels, but the index has turned highly volatile since end of 2018.

 

Spain: Unemployment rate (Q1-19): 14.7% vs 14.45% expected (prior: 14.45%)

  • Unemployed has increased for the first time since 2012.
mercoledì 24 aprile
France & Germany: weakening sentiment in manufacturing

France: Business confidence (Apr.): 105 vs 104 expected (prior: 105 revised from 104)

  • Confidence has weakened in the manufacturing sector (from 103 to 101), while it stayed stable on services.
  • In industry, sentiment on current and future production, orders and employment has decreased from past month.

 

Germany: IFO (Apr.): 99.2 vs 99.9 expected (prior: 99.7 revised from 99.6)

  • After a rebound in past month, confidence has eased again on both current situation and expectations.
  • BY sector, sentiment has eased further in manufacturing and trade sectors, while it has increased in services and construction.
  • While the total IFO index is still far from recession, sentiment in the manufacturing sector remains weak and has not yet bottomed out.

 

Poland: Unemployment rate (March): 5.9% as expected (prior: 6.1%)

  • Unemployed has decreased, but they still remained larger than in last October 2018.

 

Turkey: Industrial confidence (Apr.): 100 (prior: 99.3)

  • The progressive recovery continues, driven by higher orders, production and exports; on the opposite sentiment on employment and capex has eased from past month.
martedì 23 aprile
US: new home sales on the rise with price moderation

US: House price Index MoM (FHFA) (Feb.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Prices have globally moderated on a monthly basis, but offered a wide range of variations across the different regions.
  • Yearly trend remained high at 4.9% y/y.

 

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Apr.): 3 vs 10 expected (prior: 10)

  • Sentiment on current situation has decreased, particularly on new orders and shipments. Expectations have increased on new orders and shipments and also on capex.
  • The index has turned highly volatile, pointing to moderate trend in activity after a rebound in the prior month.

 

US: New home sales (March): 692k vs 649k expected (prior: 662k revised from 667k)

  • Sales have rebounded in 3 over 4 main districts. Median prices have decreased on a monthly basis (-4% m/m), and they have declined close to 10% y/y.
  • Lower mortgage rates and price moderation re-boost the demand.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Apr.): -7.9 vs -7 expected (prior: -7.2)

  • The first estimate has negatively surprised as the index has sharply decreased and reversed the improvement seen in the past two months. No details are available in this first estimate.

 

Switzerland: M3 (March): 3.5% y/y (prior: 3.5%)

  • M1 and M2 also stayed on a stable trend (up respectively by 5.1% y/y and 3.5% y/y).

 

Poland: Retail sales (March): 3.1% y/y vs 4.1% expected (prior: 6.5%)

  • Sales rebounded in March after monthly depressed figures over the previous two months. Yearly trend has strengthened for autos and household goods, while it has moderated in the other sectors.
giovedì 18 aprile
US: strong rebound in retail sales, but mixed business sentiment

US: Retail sales (March): 1.6% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Core sales: 1% m/m vs 0.4% m/m expected (-0.3% m/m the prior month).
  • Sales have strongly rebounded from low Feb. data in all major sectors. While trend remained high for gasoline, auto sales, furniture, clothes and food have strongly rebounded.
  • On average on Q1, consumption had been more sustained than expected, leading to a Q1 GDP probably not too far from  2% q/q (to be published next week).

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr.13): 192k vs 205k expected (prior: 197k revised from 196k)

  • Continuing claims: 1653 k after 1716 K.
  • Trend in labor remained very strong.

 

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr.): 52.4 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 52.4)

  • According to flash estimate, a modest rise in sentiment on production and new orders, but a stable global index.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (Apr.): 52.9 vs 55 expected (prior: 55.3)

  • Contrary to manufacturing, confidence has surprisingly eased in services according to first estimate. The index has come back to the bottom of its 2018 range (52.9-56), being traditionally highly volatile. The index level is still in line with a 2%-2.5% growth scenario.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Apr.): 8.5 vs 11 expected (prior: 13.7)

  • Sentiment on current and future activity has weakened. On a positive note, sentiment on new orders has increased on both current and future situation. Future capex has also strongly increased.

 

US: Business inventories (Feb.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)

  • Sales were moderate in Feb. (0.1% m/m), but the situation has improved in March.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Apr.): 47.8 vs 48 expected (prior: 47.5)

  • Sentiment has slightly increased, but less than expected in the flash estimate.
  • The rebound is modest in Germany, while sentiment has slightly eroded in France.
  • These data point towards a still fragile stabilization entering in Q2.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (Apr.): 52.5 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 53.3)

  • Flash estimate has disappointed in services, but estimates for France and Germany have both increased from past month and were up more than expected; worries could come from peripherals, and particularly Italy.

 

Germany: PPI (March): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • Prices of electricity and gas have fallen after a large rebound in Jan.; the yearly trend in PPIs has moderated from 2.6% y/y to 2.4% y/y.

 

UK: Retail sales (March): 1.1% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)

  • Sales of food, clothes and household goods have rebounded after mixed figures in Feb. (revised up). Separately, internet sales have rebounded after moderate trend in Jan.-Feb.
  • Retail sales were volatile but quite resilient in Q1 despite high political uncertainties; a strong labor market and moderate inflation have underpinned consumption trend.

 

Switzerland: Trade balance (Macrh): 3.18 Bn CHF (prior: 2.94Bn)

  • Real exports: 0.1% m/m; real imports: -3.2% m/m

 

Italy: Industrial orders (Feb.): -2.7% m/m (prior: 2.1% revised from 1.8%)

  • Industrial sales: 0.3% m/m after 3% m/m the prior month.
  • Foreign orders have sharply decreased, as well as foreign sales. After an improvement in Jan., trend in orders have deteriorated again in Feb. for all sectors except electronic and electric equipment.

 

Russia: Retail sales (March): 1.6% y/y as expected (prior: 2%)

  • Food and non-food sales have shown some moderation in their yearly trend.

 

Russia: Unemployment rate (March): 4.7% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.9%)

  • Unemployment has eased after a rebound in past quarter.

 

Russia: Real wages (March): 0% y/y vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.7%)

  • Flat trend in real wages.
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Analisi 11.04.2019

Look for global growth concerns to fade

Spotlight - Signs of a reduction in current worries about recession or in the downside risks to today’s modest earnings expectations are needed as a catalyst to support the next sustainable leg of equity market returns.