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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

venerdì 09 aprile
US: higher PPI than expected; weak Feb. industrial production in France, Germany and Spain

US: PPI (March): 1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Producer prices have rebounded more than expected from the prior month; prices were driven up by energy and services (warehouse) over the month; outside energy, prices were also sustained for intermediate goods and transport. Core PPI were up by 0.6% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • The yearly trend has sharply accelerated from 2.8% y/y the prior month to 4.2% y/y, reflecting higher costs pressure.


US: Wholesale inventories (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.4%)

  • Inventories have increased slightly more than in first estimates from the prior month. Inventories have increased in all sectors, except for autos, while sales were down by 0.8% m/m (4.4% m the prior month).


Germany: Industrial production (Feb.): -1.6% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: -2% revised from -2.5%)

  • Production has contracted for the second month contrary to expectations; activity was down over the month in all sectors, except consumer goods up by a mere 0.2% m/m.
  • Bad weather conditions and shortage in components have impacted construction and the auto and equipment sectors, while restrictions remained active. A marked improvement should be seen in Q2, but Q1 GDP should contract significantly.


Germany: Trade Balance (Feb.): 18.1bn EUR vs 20.3bn expected (prior: 13.8bn revised from 14.3bn)

  • Current account surplus: EUR 18,8 bn after 17.6 bn the prior month.
  • Real exports: 0.3% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month; real imports: 2% m/m after -5.3% m/m the prior month.


France: Industrial production (Feb.): -4.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 3.2% revised from 3.3%)

  • Production was down over the month in all sectors, except refineries. The large decrease in production of auto and transport equipment was probably due to shortage of components and disruption in the supply chain.
  • These data argue in favor of another GDP contraction in Q1-21.


Spain: Industrial production (Feb.): 0% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.7%)

  • Production has contracted over the month for several sectors, except food, chemical and energy sectors.


Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (March): 3.3% vs 3.6% expected (prior: 3.4% revised from 3.6%)

  • Unemployed has declined over the month and jobs openings have strongly rebounded on progressive reopening of some sectors in the economy.


Norway: CPI (March): -0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Lower food and housing prices versus rising prices in clothes and health sector. Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • The yearly trend has eased somewhat from 3.3% y/y the prior month to 3.1% y/y.


Norway: PPI incl. Oil (March): -0.2% m/m (prior: 5.4%)

  • Yearly trend: 18.4% y/y after 9.7% y/y prior month.


Brazil: CPI (March): 0.93% m/m vs 1.03% expected (prior: 0.86%)

  • Inflation remained on a sustained path; monthly rise was driven by energy-transport, household goods and housing.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated further from 5.2% y/y the prior month to 6.1% y/y, which opens the way to another probable rate hike.
giovedì 08 aprile
Germany: domestic orders have driven the monthly rebound in factory orders

US: Initial jobless claims (Apr. 3): 744k vs 680k expected (prior: 728k revised from 719k)

  • Continuing claims: 3734 k after 3750 k the prior week.


Germany: Factory orders (Feb.): 1.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 1.4%)

  • Orders have rebounded after downward revisions to prior month data; domestic orders have rebounded by 4% m/m, while foreign orders were down by 0.5% m/m.
  • Orders for capital goods have strongly rebounded over the month, while orders for consumers have contracted, from both domestic and foreign demand.


Eurozone: PPI (Feb.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.4%)

  • The monthly rebound was driven for the second month by rises in intermediate prices (1.2% m/m), that have followed several months of sustained rise in energy prices.
  • The yearly trend has increased from 0.4% y/y the prior month to 1.5% y/y.


UK: RICS house price balance (March): 59% vs 55% expected (prior: 54% revised from 52%)

  • Sentiment in housing has regained from the prior month on future prices and future demand.
  • After strong rebound in sentiment in Q3, the index was more volatile but remained close to high levels.


Sweden: Retail sales (Feb.): 2% m/m (prior: 2%)

  • Second month of improvement in sales, underpinned by rising consumer confidence.


Sweden: Industrial production (Feb.): 1% m/m (prior: -1.9%)

  • Activity in industry has strongly rebounded over the month; in parallel, activity in construction and services has also improved during the month.
  • Growth should rebound in Q1, thanks to firmer consumption and regaining industrial activity.


Norway: Industrial production (Feb.): -1.2% m/m (prior: 1% revised from 1.1%)

  • Activity has contracted during the month; manufacturing production was down by 0.4% m/m after 2.6% m/m the prior month; production was negative in all sectors except boats-oil platforms and basic metals.
martedì 06 aprile
US: sustained jobs openings could fuel strong trend in job creations

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Feb.): 7367 vs 6900 expected (prior: 7099 revised from 6917)

  • Jobs openings have continued to increase, and prior month data were revised up.
  • Jobs openings were closer the high ranges seen in 2018-19 (7400 k).
  • By sector, the improvement in openings was fueled by trade, transport, health and leisure-hospitality sectors.
  • Hirings were also sustained and have followed job opening at a slower pace except for the leisure hospitality sector.
  • With reopening in sight, momentum should remain strong in labor market in the next months.


Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 8.3% vs 8.1% expected (prior: 8.3% revised from 8.1%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased from the prior month; the unemployment ratio remained stable after upward revisions to past month data.


Italy: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 10.2% vs 8.9% expected (prior: 10.3% revised from 9%)

  • A new calculation of the unemployment ratio including temporary laid off workers and self-unemployed under reduced activity has increased the unemployment ratio in H2-20 reaching 10%.
  • Over the month under review, unemployed under new calculation has slightly decreased from the prior month, leading to some easing in the unemployment ratio.
giovedì 01 aprile
Business confidence: ISM has surged in the US and rising PMI in other countries

US: ISM Manufacturing (March): 64.7 vs 61.5 expected (prior: 60.8)

  • A strong rebound from the prior month, that pushes the index to historic high levels; except new export orders, the improvement was broad-based across sub-components.
  • The largest monthly rebound was seen for production and new orders. Prices paid remained on the rise.


US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (March): 59.1 vs 59.2 expected (prior: 58.6)

  • Business confidence has increased from the prior month and was finally higher than in first estimate (59) but remained below updated expectations.
  • Improving demand and new orders have not been fully transmitted to such a strong production due to shortage in the supply chain; prices remained on the rise and passed to clients.


US: Initial jobless claims (March 27): 719k vs 675k expected (prior: 658k revised from 684k)

  • Continuing claims: 3794 k after 3840 k the prior week.


US: Construction spending (Feb.): -0.8% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 1.7%)

  • As seen on other housing indicators for Feb., construction was down mainly due to bad weather conditions.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (March): 62.5 vs 62.4 expected (prior: 57.9)

  • Sentiment was finally higher than in the first estimates for the whole area and for each major country.
  • Despite renewed constraints, the index reached its highest level since 2017. New orders have strongly rebounded from the prior month, due to improving views on future production. Employment component has increased, as well as prices.
  • Shortage and bottlenecks have increased delivery time, a component which has contributed to the monthly rise in PMI.


Germany: Retail sales (Feb.): 1.2% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: -6.5% revised from -4.5%)

  • Sales remained highly volatile from one month to another with lockdown in place; the monthly rebound was mainly driven by furniture, IT goods and clothes.


Poland: PMI Manufacturing (March): 54.3 vs 55.5 expected (prior: 53.4)

  • Business confidence has regained from the prior month but slightly less than expected.


Sweden: PMI Manfacturing (March): 63.7 vs 62.5 expected (prior: 61.8 revised from 61.6)

  • A strong rebound of the index, which recovered the high levels seen in 2017-18


Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (March): 66.3 vs 64.5 expected (prior: 61.3)

  • A strong rebound in the index, which was back to its high levels of 2017-18.


Switzerland: ZEW Index (Feb.): 0.3 vs 0.4 expected (prior: 0.2)

  • A rebound of prices for clothes and energy-transport sectors. Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m.
  • Yearly trend remained negative: -0.2% y/y (-0.5%y/y the prior month); core inflation: -0.4% y/y from -0.3% y/y the prior month.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (March): 58.9 vs 57.9 expected (prior: 55.1)

  • A stronger rebound from the prior month than expected in the first estimates; improving sentiment on production, new orders, exports and employment; prices paid were on the rise and partly due to bottlenecks in the supply chain.


Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (March): 52.6 (prior: 51.7)

  • Business confidence has improved from the prior month; index on new orders has passed slightly above the 50 level.
mercoledì 31 marzo
Rising job creations in US (ADP survey); higher US Chicago PMI and rebounding China PMIs

US: ADP Employment change (March): 517k vs 550k expected (prior: 176k revised from 117k)

  • The rebound in creations was largely due to services, thanks to more employment in trade, transport, business services, education and health, leisure and hospitality sectors. The rebound was also significant in construction and manufacturing sector (bad weather conditions in Feb.).
  • These data bode well for non-farm payrolls expected at 650 k by next Friday.


US: Chicago PMI (March): 66.3 vs 61 expected (prior: 59.5)

  • A strong rebound from the prior month and the index was back to its 2017-18 level.
  • The improvement was broad based across components, with in particular, improving production, new orders and employment. Prices paid were also on the rise.


US: Pending home sales (Feb.): -10.6% m/m vs -3% expected (prior: -2.4% revised from -2.8%)

  • Bad weather conditions, low inventories and rising prices and yields have weighed down on sales in all main regions over the month.


UK: GDP (Q4-20): 1.3% q/q vs 1% expected (prior: 16.9%)

  • GDP growth has been revised up in last estimates; over the quarter, the fall in consumption and negative contribution from net trade have been more than compensated by higher public consumption and firmer total investment.
  • Q1-21 is expected to be negative, but a strong growth is expected from Q2-21.


UK: Nationwide house prices (March): -0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Prices have slightly declined over the month, after several months of regular rise. Support measures in favor of the housing sector have been prolonged further.
  • The yearly trend has eased from 6.9% y/y the prior month to 5.7% y/y.


Eurozone: CPI estimate (March): 1.3% y/y vs 1.4% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • Price estimates have shown a 0.9% m/m monthly rise due to higher energy and manufactured goods.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated due to base effects on energy prices; core inflation has moderated from 1.1% y/y the prior month to 0.9% m/m.


France: Consumer spending (Feb.): 0% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: -4.9% revised from -4.6%)

  • With ongoing lockdown and pandemic, sales were very volatile over the past months, showing large sector rotation.
  • Over the month, sales of food, autos and energy were strongly down, while clothes and durable goods were up. Ongoing lockdown should weigh down on March sales.


France: CPI (March): 0.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Prices of energy and manufactured goods have driven the monthly rebound.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 1.4% y/y.


Germany: Unemployment rate (March): 6% as expected (prior: 6%)

  • Unemployed has declined by 8k after a rise by 9k the prior month; the unemployment ratio remained stable.


Italy: CPI (March): 1.8% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • A large rebound in prices of clothes over the month has driven the monthly change.
  • The yearly trend has declined from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.6% y/y.


China: Manufacturing PMI (March) 51.9 vs 51.2 expected (prior: 50.6); Non-manufacturing PMI 56.3 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.4)

  • China’s official PMI figures for March exceeded expectations, as the economy improved on the back of stronger demand.
  • The recovery was led by construction (62.3) and services (56.3). Despite travel was discouraged during Chinese New Year, consumption in China’s cities held up quite well. Since then, there has been a significant relaxation in virus containment measures and people are able to travel again within regions without having to take a COVID test, explaining a rebound in demand in March.
  • On the flip side, the manufacturing employment subcomponent remained more subdued at 50.1, barely entering expansionary territory for the first time since April 2020.
  • In sum, PMI figures confirm the upside bias to our Q1-21 GDP growth forecast of 18.0% y/y. However, contrary to what recent volatility in the markets may suggest, the authorities will not rush to remove policy accommodation anytime soon.


Poland: CPI (March): 1% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • A monthly rebound driven by energy and food prices according to preliminary estimates.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated from 2.4% y/y the prior month to 3.2% y/y.


Brazil: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 14.2% vs 14.1% expected (prior: 13.9%)

  • After regular decline in past months, unemployed have increased over the month as well as the unemployment ratio.

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Analisi 24.03.2021

Gestione discrezionale – le redini sono in mano vostra

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