US: Initial jobless claims (June 19): 411k vs 380k expected (prior: 418k revised from 412k)
- Continuing claims: 3390 k after 3534 k prior week.
US: Durable goods orders (May): 2.3% m/m vs 2.8% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from -1.3%)
- The rebound in orders was fueled by no defense aircraft, electrical equipment and primary metals sectors.
- Core orders (orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft) were up by 0.9% m/m after 1% m/m the prior month.
- Total shipments were up by 0.4% m/m (flat the previous month, and inventories were up by 0.7% m/m (0.7% m/m the prior month).
- Despite high monthly volatility, this bodes well for capex in Q2.
US: Wholesale inventories (May): 1.1% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 1% revised from 0.8%)
- Inventories have increased for durable goods, but at the retail sector, inventories have declined by 0.8% m/m.
US: GDP (Q1-21): 6.4% q/q as expected (prior: 4.3%)
- Third and final revision left GDP data unchanged for Q1.
- In detail, investment in capex and residential was slightly revised up, while the drag from lower inventories was less negative and net export contribution was more negative than in the second estimate.
- Strong growth is expected in Q2 and in Q3, before peaking, and more sector rotation expected.
France: Business confidence (June): 113 vs 110 expected (prior: 108)
- Confidence has increased from the prior month and exceeds the highs seen in 2017-2018.
- Opinions have improved future production and orders.
- Separately, sentiment has also improved on employment and in services-retail sectors.
Germany: IFO (June): 101.8 vs 100.7 expected (prior: 99.2)
- Sentiment has increased on both current situation and expectations from the prior month; global index stayed below the highs seen in 2017-2018, having some room to improve further.
- Sentiment has increased in all sectors, but the most in manufacturing, retail and service sectors.
Spain: GDP (Q1-21): -0.4% q/q vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0%)
- Estimates for Q1 has been slightly revised up; domestic demand has contracted in Q1, but business equipment and R&D remained positive, while other components of domestic demand were under contraction (consumption down by 0.5%q after 0.4%q in Q4-20).
- Q2 should recover and a strong rebound is expected in Q3.
Poland: Unemployment rate (May): 6.1% as expected (prior: 6.3%)
- After a rebound in March, the unemployment ratio has fallen again in the following months.
UK: BoE left unchanged its monetary policy and key rates.
- key rates remained at 0.01% as expected; BOE maintains its QE at GBP 875 bn for government bonds and GBP 20 bn for corporates bonds in a 8-1 vote: one vote was in favour of decreasing purchases, this from M. Haldane, leaving the Committee this month.
- The statement was positive on growth and a stronger rebound is expected in Q2 on reopening economy. The bank is expecting high growth and high inflation, but inflation rebound should only be transitory; the Bank will probably wait for the end of support to labor (Sept.) before changing its communication.
Brazil: Consumer confidence (June): 80.9 (prior: 76.2)
- Sentiment has regained on both current situation and expectations from the prior month.
Turkey: Industrial confidence (June): 109.8 (prior: 107.1)
- Sentiment has slightly increased from past month, being volatile in past months but close to the highs seen in 2017-18.
- Opinions have increased on orders, employment and output from the prior month.