US: ADP Employment change (March): 517k vs 550k expected (prior: 176k revised from 117k)
- The rebound in creations was largely due to services, thanks to more employment in trade, transport, business services, education and health, leisure and hospitality sectors. The rebound was also significant in construction and manufacturing sector (bad weather conditions in Feb.).
- These data bode well for non-farm payrolls expected at 650 k by next Friday.
US: Chicago PMI (March): 66.3 vs 61 expected (prior: 59.5)
- A strong rebound from the prior month and the index was back to its 2017-18 level.
- The improvement was broad based across components, with in particular, improving production, new orders and employment. Prices paid were also on the rise.
US: Pending home sales (Feb.): -10.6% m/m vs -3% expected (prior: -2.4% revised from -2.8%)
- Bad weather conditions, low inventories and rising prices and yields have weighed down on sales in all main regions over the month.
UK: GDP (Q4-20): 1.3% q/q vs 1% expected (prior: 16.9%)
- GDP growth has been revised up in last estimates; over the quarter, the fall in consumption and negative contribution from net trade have been more than compensated by higher public consumption and firmer total investment.
- Q1-21 is expected to be negative, but a strong growth is expected from Q2-21.
UK: Nationwide house prices (March): -0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Prices have slightly declined over the month, after several months of regular rise. Support measures in favor of the housing sector have been prolonged further.
- The yearly trend has eased from 6.9% y/y the prior month to 5.7% y/y.
Eurozone: CPI estimate (March): 1.3% y/y vs 1.4% expected (prior: 0.9%)
- Price estimates have shown a 0.9% m/m monthly rise due to higher energy and manufactured goods.
- The yearly trend has accelerated due to base effects on energy prices; core inflation has moderated from 1.1% y/y the prior month to 0.9% m/m.
France: Consumer spending (Feb.): 0% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: -4.9% revised from -4.6%)
- With ongoing lockdown and pandemic, sales were very volatile over the past months, showing large sector rotation.
- Over the month, sales of food, autos and energy were strongly down, while clothes and durable goods were up. Ongoing lockdown should weigh down on March sales.
France: CPI (March): 0.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0%)
- Prices of energy and manufactured goods have driven the monthly rebound.
- The yearly trend has accelerated from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 1.4% y/y.
Germany: Unemployment rate (March): 6% as expected (prior: 6%)
- Unemployed has declined by 8k after a rise by 9k the prior month; the unemployment ratio remained stable.
Italy: CPI (March): 1.8% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: -0.2%)
- A large rebound in prices of clothes over the month has driven the monthly change.
- The yearly trend has declined from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.6% y/y.
China: Manufacturing PMI (March) 51.9 vs 51.2 expected (prior: 50.6); Non-manufacturing PMI 56.3 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.4)
- China’s official PMI figures for March exceeded expectations, as the economy improved on the back of stronger demand.
- The recovery was led by construction (62.3) and services (56.3). Despite travel was discouraged during Chinese New Year, consumption in China’s cities held up quite well. Since then, there has been a significant relaxation in virus containment measures and people are able to travel again within regions without having to take a COVID test, explaining a rebound in demand in March.
- On the flip side, the manufacturing employment subcomponent remained more subdued at 50.1, barely entering expansionary territory for the first time since April 2020.
- In sum, PMI figures confirm the upside bias to our Q1-21 GDP growth forecast of 18.0% y/y. However, contrary to what recent volatility in the markets may suggest, the authorities will not rush to remove policy accommodation anytime soon.
Poland: CPI (March): 1% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- A monthly rebound driven by energy and food prices according to preliminary estimates.
- The yearly trend has accelerated from 2.4% y/y the prior month to 3.2% y/y.
Brazil: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 14.2% vs 14.1% expected (prior: 13.9%)
- After regular decline in past months, unemployed have increased over the month as well as the unemployment ratio.