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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

venerdì 17 agosto
US consumer confidence declining on concerns about trade, financial situation and inflation

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug.): 95.3 vs 98 expected (prior: 97.9)

  • Preliminary confidence index has shown a decline, but it is still at a high absolute level.
  • While expectations stayed stable, views on current situation have significantly decreased, now at a 2-year low level. The financial situation and the net debt/asset have deteriorated according to consumers and their willingness to buy autos, houses and large items have decreased from the high levels seen past months. Inflation and trade policy have fueled some concerns at the consumer level.
  • Inflation expectations were quite stable: 2.9% y/y at 1-year; 2.5% y/y after 2.4% y/y at 5-year.
  • As expectations remained positive, trend on consumption should also remain positive, but the trade policy is clearly some source of concerns not only for China and Europe, but also for US consumers- at least on the short run.


Eurozone: CPI (Juky): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed in line with initial estimate; headline inflation was up by 2.1% y/y and core inflation has slightly increased to 1.1% y/y from 0.9% y/y. Prices of energy, tobacco and services were on a rising trend.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 68.3 (prior: 73.1)

  • Confidence fell due to rising concerns about the economic environment, the inflation and it has shown lower willingness to spend.
giovedì 16 agosto
US: disappointing housing starts and Philly Fed sentiment

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 11): 212k vs 215k expected (prior: 214k revised from 213k)

  • Continuing claims: 1721 k after 1760 k prior week.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (Aug.): 11.9 vs 22 expected (prior: 25.7)

  • While sentiment on current situation has severely declined (on all components including employment), the six-month view has strongly rebounded (also broad based across components).
  • This should point towards temporary worries (trade, tariffs, labor), while the broad outlook remains positive.


US: Housing starts (July): 1168k vs 1260k expected (prior: 1158k revised from 1173k)

  • Data were revised lower on the prior month, but the resulting rebound on July looked modest.
  • Single family housing starts have stabilized at a low level, but elated building permits have rebounded, which should bring a rebound in data in the coming months.
  • Trend in housing has deteriorated, reflecting rising mortgage rates and data point towards some stabilization.


UK: Retail sales (July): 0.7% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.5%)

  • Sales have rebounded driven up by clothes, non-food goods and internet sales. Discounts and tourism, plus World Cup, have probably supported this rebound after a sharp contraction in June.
  • Labor and wages should support further consumption but inflation remains high.


Turkey: Industrial production (June): -2% m/m (prior: -1.6%)

  • Production has slowed down from 6.5% y/y the prior month to 3.2% y/y. The fall was broad based, except a few sectors.
mercoledì 15 agosto
US: business sentiment, retail sales and production on the rise

US: Retail sales (July): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.5%)

  • Sales were strong in many sectors, but data for the prior month were revised down.
  • Sales were particularly strong for food, leisure, clothes and gasoline stations. On the opposite, sales were down for furniture, sports and health. Internet sales remained on a sustained trend.
  • Core sales were also strong (0.5% m/m), which bodes well for consumption in Q3.


US: Empire manufacturing (Aug.): 25.6 vs 20 expected (prior: 22.6)

  • Sentiment has increased further contrary to expectations; sentiment on the economy has improved as well as shipments, even if new orders have moderated; employment is all seen in moderation, while capex should extend further.
  • More worryingly, prices paid have strongly increased.


US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-18): 2.9% q/q vs 2.4% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

  • Given the rebound in GDP growth on Q2, productivity has logically rebounded with stronger output.
  • Total compensation was up by 2% q/q and unit labor costs have contracted by 0.9% q/q.
  • On a yearly basis, productivity gains remain muted (1.3% y/y), while total compensation has increased by a strong 3.2% y/y.


US: Industrial production (July): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 1% revised from 0.6%)

  • Production was strong in autos, computers, and electronics and also for natural gas. Production has moderated for home electronics, utilities and construction supply.
  • As past month data were revised higher, trend remains positive despite a mixed picture across the sectors.


US: Business inventories (june): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

  • Inventories have decreased for autos and stayed moderate or flat in other main sectors; sales were up by 0.3% m/m after 1.3% m/m in May.
  • Thanks to firm demand, inventories in manufacturers are on a decreasing trend.


US: NAHB housing market index (Aug.): 67 as expected (prior: 68)

  • Sentiment has slightly eased on lower future sales and lower buyers’ traffic.


UK: CPI (July): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

  • Mixed picture across sectors: rising prices of transport, leisure but lower prices for food and clothes over the month.
  • The yearly change has slightly accelerated from 2.4%y/y the prior month to 2.5% y/y. In this environment, the BoE should maintain its tightening bias.


UK: PPI Input prices (July): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Raw materials, energy prices and prices of manufactured goods stayed on a strong rising trend : 10.9% y/y


UK: PPI Output prices (July): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

  • Trend has stabilized on a 3.1% y/y rise.
  • As input prices have increased more rapidly than output prices, downwards pressures on margins could result for some firms.


Russia: Industrial production (July): 3.9% y/y vs 2.6% expected (prior: 2.2%)

  • Manufacturing production was firmer, up by 4.6% y/y.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (May): 9.7% (prior: 9.6%)

  • Due to major troubles in markets and tougher financial conditions for firms, the trend in labor might deteriorate further.
martedì 14 agosto
Sustained Q2 GDP growth in Germany; US small firms’ sentiment at record high

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (July): 107.9 vs 106.8 expected (prior: 107.2)

  • Sentiment on future economy, capex and hiring has increased from the prior month.
  • The index is back to its previous highest levels.


Germany: GDP (Q2-18): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

  • GDP growth was more resilient than expected, thanks to dynamic domestic demand, while net exports were negative according to first estimate. Past quarter data were also revised up from initial estimates. More details on GDP data will be published later on.
  • Growth trend has slowed on a yearly basis, from 2.8% y/y in Q4-17 to 2% y/y in Q2.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (July): 0.1% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

  • Import prices were up by 6.9% y/y; producer prices were up by 2.1% y/y. These prices have been mainly driven by higher energy, raw material and machinery prices.


France: Unemployment rate (Q2-18): 8.7% vs 8.9% expected (prior: 8.9%)

  • Unemployed has decreased by 48 k over the quarter.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (July): 4% vs 4.2% expected (prior: 4.2%)

  • Claimant count stayed stable at 2.5%.
  • Jobless claims have increased by 6.2 k after 9 k the prior month.
  • With fewer arrivals of foreign workers, employment of UK nationals has increased.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (June): 2.4% y/y vs 2.5% expected (prior: 2.5%)

  • Including bonuses, wages were up by 2.7% y/y after 2.8% y/y the prior month.
  • Trend in wage growth has accelerated in construction and leisure sectors, but remained contained in other sectors.
  • Lower slack in labor could put wages on rising pressures in several sectors.


Eurozone: Industrial production (June): -0.7% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.3%)

  • After the rebound in May, activity has eased back in June except in energy.
  • Activity could remain fragile if concerns on trade war develop further.


Eurozone: GDP (Q2-18): 0.4% q/q vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Growth estimate for Q2 has been revised up, from 0.3%q to 0.4%q.
  • Germany and Eastern countries have been the driving force in Q2, in terms of GDP growth.
  • Q3 GDP growth should be at least up by 0.4%q/q.


Germany: Zew (Aug.): 72.6 vs 72.1 expected (prior: 72.4)

  • Sentiment among financial community has increased and expectations were less depressed.


Poland: GDP (Q2-18): 0.9% q/q vs 1% expected (prior: 1.6%)

  • Growth stayed on a stable yearly trend (5% y/y).
venerdì 10 agosto
Moderate US inflation; UK GDP has rebounded in Q2

US: CPI (July): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Inflation remained moderate; prices of energy, apparels and computers were down over the month, while rents and services were up by 0.3% m/m; core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m as expected.
  • Headline inflation stayed on a stable trend at 2.9% y/y, while core inflation has slightly accelerated at 2.4% y/y after 2.3% y/y the prior month.
  • Headline inflation is expected to moderate at year-end, but the Fed should continue to hike in H2-18.


France: Industrial production (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Activity has rebounded in all sectors, and particularly activity in refinery, reversing the decrease seen past months.
  • Construction and production of autos have both rebounded, which should be a positive signal for consumption and growth on Q3.


UK: Industrial production (June): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.4%)

  • The rebound was mainly led by consumer goods production, while production in investment good was flat; production was down for intermediate, energy and oil sectors.


UK: GDP (Q2-18): 0.4% q/q as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Investment has driven the rebound, with firmer consumption. Exports have sharply fallen, still contributing negatively to GDP.
  • In terms of sectors, the main positive contribution came from services, transport, leisure and water distribution.
  • On a yearly basis, GDP has stabilized at 1.3% y/y, but domestic growth has slowed down further from 2.3% y/y in Q4-17.
  • The growth outlook depends from next UK-EU negotiations on Brexit.


Russia: GDP (Q2-18): 1.8% y/y vs 1.9% expected (prior: 1.3%)

  • Growth trend has slightly improved by Q2, but remained moderate as sanctions remained a drag on activity.
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