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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

mercoledì 23 maggio
PMI manufacturing: slightly up in the US while declining in the eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (May): 56.6 vs 56.5 expected (prior: 56.5)

  • Sentiment on employment has increased, while new orders have declined from very high level.


US: Markit Services PMI (May): 55.7 vs 55 expected (prior: 54.6)

  • Sentiment has increased more than expected in services from past month.
  • Leading indicators point in favor of a still sustained activity in the business sectors in Q2.


US: New home sales (Apr.): 662k vs 680k expected (prior: 672k revised from 694k)

  • Small decline in sales, but a still high level in absolute terms; mean prices of home sold were rising rapidly (11.3% y/y).


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (May): 55.5 vs 56.1 expected (prior: 56.2)

  • Sentiment has weakened further contrary to expectations; in flash estimate, French index has slightly increased from past month, while the index has decreased in Germany.
  • Final index would also probably reflect uncertainties in Italy, adding further downside risks.


Eurozone: PMI Services (May): 53.9 vs 54.7 expected (prior: 54.7)

  • Flash estimate has decreased for both French and German indices, being well below expectations.
  • Leading indicators point to continued moderate growth rather than in favor of a rebound.


France: Unemployment rate (Q1-18): 8.9% vs 8.5% expected (prior: 8.6%)

  • Mainland unemployment rate has increased after some easing in past months;
  • Unemployed has increased by 83 k over the quarter under review.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (May): 0.2 vs 0.5 expected (prior: 0.3 revised from 0.4)

  • Contrary to expectations, flash consumer confidence has eased after the small rebound seen in April.
  • Rising oil prices and political uncertainties are probably the main sources of concerns for households.


UK: PPI Input prices (Apr.): 0.4% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%)

  • Input prices were on a rising trend: 5.3% y/y after 4.4% y/y the prior month. The rise looks mainly due to energy and food prices, but this could fuel further pressures on margins or on CPI.


UK: PPI Output prices (Apr.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • Trend remains stable at 2.3% y/y. Core prices stayed moderate (0.1% m/m; 2.4% y/y).


UK: CPI (Apr.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Trend has moderated from 2.5% y/y to 2.4% y/y; core inflation has moderated from 2.3% y/y to 2.1% y/y.
  • Monthly changes in food, alcohol, energy and transports were sustained over the month, but were moderate in other sectors.
  • Inflation trend should continue to evolve closer to central bank target, but energy and currency changes could fuel upside risks.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (May): 69.9 (prior: 71.9)

  • Sentiment has weakened, due to rising concerns on economic situation, inflation and lower willingness to buy big items.
martedì 22 maggio
US business survey points towards a firmer activity

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (May): 16 vs 10 expected (prior: -3)

  • Sentiment has rebounded from depressed levels in April, and was back to the levels seen in the previous quarters.
  • Views on the short time have improved, particularly on new orders, shipments and employment; on capex, opinions have increased on equipment and software spending but declined for total investment.
  • The six-month views have also gained on orders, use of capacities and spending in equipment and software, but other components have moderated from the prior month.
  • As seen in other regional business surveys, activity should gain on Q2 but the medium-term view looks moderate.


Sweden: Unemployment rate (Apr.): 6.3% vs 6.1% expected (prior: 6.2%)

  • Unemployed has increased over the month, but trend in unemployment rate remains on the downside.


Switzerland: M3 (Apr.): 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.3%)

  • M3 stayed on a stable growth trend, while M1 and M2 have shown a decline in the year-to-date trend.


Russia: Retail sales (Apr.): 2.4% y/y as expected (prior: 2.0%)

  • Trend in sales has slightly improved, but monthly changes were negative, still pointing to existing fragilities.


Russia: Unemployment rate (Apr.): 4.9% vs 5% expected (prior: 5%)

  • Unemployed is on a declining trend.


Russia: Disposable income (real) (Apr.): 5.7% y/y vs 4% expected (prior: 4.5% revised from 4.1%)

  • Real wages were up by 7.8% y/y after 8.7% y/y the prior month.
  • Income per capita is on a rising trend since Dec. 17.
venerdì 18 maggio
Producer prices on the rise in Germany

Germany: PPI (Apr.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • PPIs were up by 2% y/y after 1.9% y/y the prior month; separately wholesale prices were up by 0.5% m/m, and up by 1.4% y/y after 1.2% y/y.
  • With the rise of energy prices, trend is rising again in producer prices; this pressure could be transmitted to headline prices in the coming months.


Russia: Industrial production (Apr.): 1.3% y/y vs 1.2% expected (prior: 1%)

  • Manufacturing and mining production has rebounded over the month; within the manufacturing sector, activity has rebounded in energy, chemicals and transport sector.
  • Production remains on a moderate and volatile trend.


giovedì 17 maggio
US jobless claims remained close to low levels

US: Initial jobless claims (May 12): 222k vs 215k expected (prior: 211k)

  • Continuing claims: 1707 k vs 1780 k expected; 1794 k prior week.
  • The 4-week average jobless claims continues to weaken (213 k) despite the slight rise over the week.
mercoledì 16 maggio
Solid industrial production in the US

US: Industrial production (April): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)

  • IP y/y: 0.7% vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from 0.1%)
  • Manufacturing production rose by 0.5% m/m after 0.0% in March, adding to evidence that activity accelerated at the beginning of Q2. The 1.2% m/m jump in business equipment production is particularly encouraging. Moreover, mining output continued its recent strong run with a 1.1% m/m increase, helped by rising oil prices.

US: Housing starts (April): 1287k vs 1310k expected (prior: 1336k revised from 1319k)

  • Building permits: 1352k vs 1350k expected (prior: 1377k revised from 1354k)
  • The fall is due to a large 50k decline in starts in the volatile multifamily sector while single-family starts increased 1k to 894k.
  • Both housing starts and building permits remain close to their highest level since 2007.


Eurozone: CPI (April F.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0%)

  • CPI y/y: 1.2% as expected (prior: 1.3%)
  • Core CPI y/y: 0.7% as expected (prior: 0.7%)
  • Unchanged from the initial estimate.


Poland: central bank keeps rate unchanged, as expected

  • The key interest rate stays at a record-low (1.5%) as inflation has remained in line with the central bank's projection and is set to undershoot the 2.5% target this year. However, the seffoff of the zloty in May together with the rally in oil price could become a concern.

Russia: GDP (Q1 A.): 1.3% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • These preliminary data don't include a breakdown but growth continues to disappoint despite a rebound in oil prices.

Turkey: Industrial production (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • IP y/y: 7.6% vs 8.3% expected (prior: 10.1%)
Macro economic

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Analisi 02.05.2018

How emerging markets are dealing with higher US Treasury yields

The recent rise, through 3%, and to the highest level since 2013, has triggered a bit of a sell-off in emerging market assets. We’re thinking that US Treasury yields from here stabilise or they rise only gradually, and this’ll allow emerging market asset prices to go up again.