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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

lunedì 25 gennaio
Germany: weakening confidence (IFO index) on rising contagion and lockdown

US: Chicago Fed at 0.52 after 0.31 prior month (0.1 expected); Fed Dallas index at 7 after 9.7 prior month (12 expected).

  • Two regional surveys which have pointed in opposite direction, but with common concern on the short-term situation, and still hope of a 6-month rebound in activity.


Germany: IFO (Jan.): 90.1 vs 91.4 expected (prior: 92.2 revised from 92.1)

  • Business confidence has declined more than expected, due to rising concerns on virus contagion, renewed restrictions and fears of lower global demand.
  • By sector, confidence has marginally eased in the manufacturing sector, while a larger decline over the month was seen in retail, trade and construction sectors.
  • Expectations have decreased over the month, back to their June 2020 level and sentiment on current situation was back to its Sept. level.
  • The IFO index revealed more cautious and worried stance on activity than past PMI manufacturing.
  • Q1 growth should be negative after flat or slightly negative Q4-20, delaying the recovery to Q2 once vaccination will have more steam and after pandemic is under better control.


Poland: Industrial production (Dec.): -4.4% m/m vs -6% expected (prior: -1.6%)

  • The monthly decline in production came lower than expected; despite second month rebound in utility production, activity index has declined driven by contraction in manufacturing production for the second month.
  • The yearly trend has rebounded from 5.4% the prior month to 11.2% y/y, thanks to positive base effect.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (Jan.): 109 (prior: 110.4)

  • Business confidence has declined from the previous month, driven lower by orders, production and exports; on the opposite, views on employment remained stable.
venerdì 22 gennaio
US Business sentiment on the rise in both manufacturing and services

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 59.1 vs 56.5 expected (prior: 57.1)

  • Surprisingly confidence in manufacturing has increased further due to improving opinions on production and orders.
  • The preliminary index reached higher points than in 2017 and in 2014.


US: Markit Services PMI (Jan.): 57.5 vs 53.4 expected (prior: 54.8)

  • Sentiment has increased, contrary to expectations and to the situation in Europe.
  • Sentiment improved on output while new demand has moderated; prices have shown a strong rise, trend already mentioned in the prior months.
  • Momentum remained positive in both manufacturing and services sectors in the US contrary to Europe.


US: Existing home sales (Dec.): 6.76M vs 6.56M expected (prior: 6.71M revised from 6.69M)

  • Sales remained at a high level, after upward revisions to prior month data.
  • Sales have rebounded on both single-family houses and condos; prices remained at a high level from past month trend.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 54.7 vs 54.4 expected (prior: 55.2)

  • Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month, but globally less than expected.
  • According to preliminary data, confidence has increased further in France, while it has declined in Germany, but the German index remained high (57).
  • Manufacturing remained on growth mode, but its pace should moderate after strong rebound past quarters as global demand should moderate facing renewed constraints.


Eurozone: PMI Services (Jan.): 45 vs 44.5 expected (prior: 46.4)

  • Sentiment has declined but surprisingly less than estimated; lockdown weighs particularly more on specific sectors and related labor.
  • Downside risks are in place on services and particularly some consumer services.


Poland: Retail sales (Dec.): 20% m/m vs 18.3% expected (prior: -5.4%)

  • A strong and broad-based rebound after weak data the prior month.
  • Yearly trend was less negative, coming from -5.3% y/y the prior month to -0.8% Y7Y.


UK: GFK consumer confidence (Jan.): -28 vs -30 expected (prior: -26)

  • Confidence has declined on deteriorating future economic conditions.
  • The index stayed above the lows seen in Q2-20, but well below its 2019 level.


UK: Retail sales (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -3% revised from -2.6%)

  • Sales were positive but less than expected, showing strong impact of the severe lockdown; sales of clothes and non-food sales were strong over the month, while other sales have contacted, including lower volumes in internet sales from the prior month.
  • With tough lockdown in place, data should be depressed in Jan.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 52.9 vs 53.6 expected (prior: 57.5)

  • Confidence in the manufacturing sector has decreased more than expected; past inventories rebuilding ahead of Brexit had pushed up the output and this has reverted; moreover, lockdown and moderate global demand has weighed down on the index, which remained above the 50 level.


UK: PMI Services (Jan.): 38.8 vs 45 expected (prior: 49.4)

  • A huge fall in confidence related to severe and repeated lockdown in place, impacting more services than manufacturing sector.
  • The index was back to its March 2020 level, but still above the lows of April (13.4).
giovedì 21 gennaio
US Housing starts on top; no change in ECB’s strategy

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan.16): 900k vs 935k expected (prior: 926k revised from 965k)

  • Continuing claims: 5054 k after 5181 k the prior week.
  • Despite lower numbers than the prior week, claims remained high due to lockdown and negative impact on employment in hospitality sector. People under program assistance remained on a rising average trend.


US: Housing starts (Dec.): 1669k vs 1560k expected (prior: 1578k revised from 1547k)

  • Housing starts have reached new highs this year, coming close to 2006 numbers.
  • The rise was driven by single family starts (12% m/m), while multifamily starts were down (-13% m/m).
  • Permits have also strongly rebounded (from 1635 k to 1709 k) due also to high demand for single family houses.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (Jan.): 26.5 vs 11.8 expected (prior: 9.1 revised from 11.1)

  • Sentiment has strongly rebounded after the prior month fall; opinions on current and future situation have improved, with a broad range of indicators better oriented or staying at high level.


The ECB has not changed its current strategy as expected

  • Same measures remain in place after changes adopted past December.
  • Downside risks on activity in Q4 and still in place at the start of Q1. Positive scenario expected with vaccine, budgetary supports and lower political risks globally (ECB scenario on eurozone GDP expected around 4% in 2021).
  • Renewed budgetary supports from governments and EU are welcomed; the ECB called for more targeted and temporary measures.
  • PEPP has been increased in Dec., but statement mentioned that a full use may not be necessary if scenario improves, and, equally, amounts could be increased if necessary, depending on financial conditions.
  • The target of PEPP is to anchor accommodative financing conditions, defined as wide range of indicators (from markets to credit/ banks lending indicators); several questions were related on financial conditions, pointing to a regular tightening of credit conditions from banks, but Ms Lagarde said global conditions remained positive.
  • With strong TLTROs and PEPP in place from the ECB, a gap appears between the perception of an accommodative policy versus tighter credit supply if banks continue to increase further their tightening on credit standards and related provisioning.
  • Behind the scene, it seems same divisions among governors remained in place as revealed by latest Dec. minutes (size and duration of PEPP; function reaction on credit related to scenario).


France: Business confidence (Jan.): 92 as expected (prior: 91)

  • Confidence has increased further, in line with expectations; sentiment in the manufacturing sector has strongly rebounded, coming close to its level seen in Q1-20.
  • Opinions have improved on personal production, new orders and export orders.
  • While downside risks remained present, momentum in manufacturing remained positive.


Italy: Industrial orders (Nov.): -1.3% m/m (prior: 3%)

  • Orders were driven down over the month by a sharp fall of domestic orders, while foreign orders remained on sustained positive trend (thanks to transport and equipment sectors).
  • Sales were down by 2.2% m/m after 2.1% m/m the prior month.


Switzerland: M3 (Dec.): 6.5% y/y (prior: 5.8% revised from 5.7%)

  • Monetary aggregates growth pace remained on an upward trend: M1 was up by 9.2% y/y and M2 up by 6.1% y/y as seen for M3.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 83.3 (prior: 80.1)

  • Confidence has rebounded on higher expectations regarding the future economic situation, employment, inflation (lower) and rising willingness to buy large items.
mercoledì 20 gennaio
Decreasing sentiment in US housing; energy prices pushed monthly inflation higher in Europe

US: NAHB housing market index (Jan.): 83 vs 86 expected (prior: 86)

  • Sentiment in housing has decreased from top level reached the prior month.
  • Opinions have decreased on present and future sales and on future demand.


UK: CPI (Dec.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • While food prices have decreased, energy prices, housing and services were up over the month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.3% y/y the prior month to 0.6% y/y.
  • Renewed lockdown would push monthly prices of goods down again in Jan.


UK: PPI Input prices (Dec.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.5%)

  • Input prices were driven up by strong rebound in energy prices.
  • Yearly trend has increased from -0.3% y/y the prior month to 0.2% y/y.


UK: PPI Output prices (Dec.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

  • The main driver was the rebound in energy prices over the month.
  • Yearly trend has turned less negative, from -0.6 % y/y the prior month to -0.4% y/y.


Eurozone: CPI (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.3%)

  • Final estimate has confirmed the rebound in monthly inflation due to rising energy prices and a rebound in services (0.8% m/m). Core inflation has moderated, from 0.4% m/m the prior month to 0.2% m/m.
  • Yearly trend remained stable at -0.3% y/y.


Germany: PPI (Dec.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • The monthly rebound was driven by energy prices, while prices of consumer goods have slightly contracted over the month and prices of capital goods were quite flat.
  • Yearly trend has turned positive, from -0.5% y/y the prior month to 0.2% y/y.
martedì 19 gennaio
German Zew index: expectations on the rise

Germany: Zew (Jan.): 58.3 (prior: 54.4)

  • Views from financial community remained positive and have improved further on both current and future economic conditions on Germany and the eurozone.
  • These data should reflect hopes attached to vaccine, and came before the recent decision to extend further lockdown and restrictions in Germany until mid-Feb.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Dec.): 0.5% m/m (prior: -0.1%)

  • Rebound in prices was due to higher oil and energy prices over the month; other sectors have shown only limited monthly changes.
  • Yearly trend remained negative, from -2.7% y/y the prior month to -2.3% y/y.


Germany: CPI (Dec.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: -1%)

  • The rebound in prices was mainly due to energy and transport sectors, and also leisure and household equipment goods.
  • On the opposite, prices for food and clothes were down over the month.
  • The yearly trend remained unchanged at -0.7% y/y.

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Analisi 21.01.2021

Vaccines: Israel and the UAE show the way forward

With vaccines to combat the global pandemic being rolled out beginning in late-December, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have led the world in vaccinating their populations, having reached > 20% coverage by mid-January.