US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (March): 48.5 vs 48 expected (prior: 50.7)
- Final index was slightly lower than first estimate, but less negative than today expectations.
- The decline in business sentiment was driven by falling production due to shut down, falling demand and orders, and falling employment; the problems of supply shortage have been accounted positively, artificially boosting the total index.
US: ADP Employment change (Feb.): -27k vs -150k expected (prior: 179k revised from 183k)
- Job losses were still limited compared to expectations, but more negative news is expected.
- Destructions were centred on small firms and in the service sector.
- Non-farm payrolls due next Friday should also show a reversal (-100 k expected), still limited compared to the surge in initial jobless claims.
US: ISM Manufacturing (March): 49.1 vs 44.5 expected (prior: 50.1)
- Business sentiment was higher than expected, but the delivery problems have artificially boosted the total index, meaning the "real data" were probably closer to the 44.5 expected.
- With shutdown in place, sentiment has fallen on all major components from the previous month; nevertheless, new orders index has fallen to 42.2, which is lower than in 2012 but still far above the below-30 level seen in 2008.
- Negative shock is coming progressively on the manufacturing sector and further fall is on sight for April data.
UK: PMI Manufacturing (March): 47.8 vs 47 expected (prior: 52.2)
- As seen in the US, final data were less negative than current expectations, but have shown significant fall from the previous month.
- Falling sentiment on production, orders, exports and employment; same rise in supply delivery that support the index.
Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (March): 43.7 vs 42.2 expected (prior: 49.5)
- Falling sentiment due to lower production, orders and employment; artificial rise in delivery due to supply disruption.
- The index was below 2012 levels, but still above the 2008 levels (circa 33)
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (March): 44.5 vs 44.6 expected (prior: 49.8)
- Final data have confirmed the fall in sentiment from the previous month. The fall was marginally larger than expected due to sharp fall in Italy (index at 40) and in Germany (45.4).
- The fall was driven by lower output and falling demand, with supply delivery problems. The index was below the 2012 levels, but still above the 2008 level.
Germany: Retail sales (Feb.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1% revised from 0.9%)
- Sales remained sustained, thanks to food and pharma, while sales in other sectors were sharply negative over the month.
Italy: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 9.7% vs 10% expected (prior: 9.8%)
Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 7.3% vs 7.4% expected (prior: 7.4%)
Brazil: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.5% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 0.9%)
- Production was sustained in capital and intermediate good sectors before the COVID impact.
Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (March): 48.4 (prior: 52.3)
- Falling sentiment in production, orders and exports.