1. Newsroom
  2. What is the ECB’s strategy?
Menu
Analysen 29.01.2018

What is the ECB’s strategy?

What is the ECB’s strategy?

Focus on the ECB’s monetary policy: still accommodative, but for how long?


  • In the eurozone, momentum remains positive and the growth scenario has been regularly revised up. 2.1% is expected for 2018.
  • Inflation is still below target (1.3% y/y vs 2%), recent EUR strengthening has postponed any rebound in inflation.
  • The ECB has already reduced its government bond and credit purchases from EUR 60 bn to EUR 30 bn; these amounts should stay unchanged until September 2018.
  • Several ECB governors have recently changed their minds and adopted a less dovish view on QE and interest rate management.
  • Despite inflation remaining low, the ECB should shift to less dovish communication in Q2 as strong growth continues.
  • The ECB is increasingly likely to end its QE next September.
  • A first rate hike, expected around Q2-2019, will be the first step in its exit strategy.

graph-eurozone.jpg


Newsletter

Sign up to receive UBP’s latest news & investment insights directly in your inbox

Click and enter your email address to subscribe

Meistgelesene News

Analysen 14.06.2018

Initial Thoughts on Trump-Kim Summit

Tame market response to the summit is accurately priced, in our view, with still low expectations of a real breakthrough in the near term to trade the ‘peace dividend’ or ‘economic reconstruction’ themes.

Analysen 11.06.2018

Why Value Investing is not Dead in Japan

In this paper, we will take a closer look at what could be the drivers or catalysts for value stocks to come back into favour.
Analysen 01.06.2018

Navigating choppy waters

After strong growth in Q4, activity was relatively weak in Q1, particularly in developed economies. Where is the global economy going in the next quarters?

Auch lesenswert

Analysen 14.06.2018

Initial Thoughts on Trump-Kim Summit

Tame market response to the summit is accurately priced, in our view, with still low expectations of a real breakthrough in the near term to trade the ‘peace dividend’ or ‘economic reconstruction’ themes.

Analysen 11.06.2018

Why Value Investing is not Dead in Japan

In this paper, we will take a closer look at what could be the drivers or catalysts for value stocks to come back into favour.
Analysen 01.06.2018

Navigating choppy waters

After strong growth in Q4, activity was relatively weak in Q1, particularly in developed economies. Where is the global economy going in the next quarters?