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Analisi 29.01.2018

What is the ECB’s strategy?

What is the ECB’s strategy?

Focus on the ECB’s monetary policy: still accommodative, but for how long?


  • In the eurozone, momentum remains positive and the growth scenario has been regularly revised up. 2.1% is expected for 2018.
  • Inflation is still below target (1.3% y/y vs 2%), recent EUR strengthening has postponed any rebound in inflation.
  • The ECB has already reduced its government bond and credit purchases from EUR 60 bn to EUR 30 bn; these amounts should stay unchanged until September 2018.
  • Several ECB governors have recently changed their minds and adopted a less dovish view on QE and interest rate management.
  • Despite inflation remaining low, the ECB should shift to less dovish communication in Q2 as strong growth continues.
  • The ECB is increasingly likely to end its QE next September.
  • A first rate hike, expected around Q2-2019, will be the first step in its exit strategy.

graph-eurozone.jpg


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