11.08.2025
UBP Currency Views
The prospect of continued Fed rate cuts will weigh on the US dollar
Peter Kinsella
Global Head of Forex Strategy
London, Regno Unito
English
Peter Kinsella è entrato in UBP nel 2018 come direttore globale della strategia Forex. È membro del Comitato di asset allocation e del Comitato d’investimento globale della Banca.
Ha maturato quasi 20 anni di esperienza nelle valute e nel reddito fisso, con una vasta competenza in prodotti derivati e strutturati. È entrato in UBP dopo aver lavorato presso la Commonwealth Bank of Australia di Londra, dove era direttore della strategia internazionale in tassi e valute estere. In precedenza ha diretto la divisione Ricerca mercati emergenti di Commerzbank, dove era responsabile di un team internazionale che si occupava delle principali economie dei mercati emergenti (Russia/CSI, EMEA, Cina e America latina). Ha una solida esperienza nelle tecniche di copertura valutaria e di gestione dei rischi, acquisita soprattutto quando lavorava in qualità di trader FX e derivati presso Pioneer Investments/Amundi.
Ha conseguito un Bachelor in economia allo University College Dublin e due Master, uno in economia alla London School of Economics (Regno Unito) e uno in diritto ed economia all’Università di Bologna (Italia).
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UBP Currency Views: Who wins when the USD loses?
The prospect of lower oil prices and possible Fed easing is benign for most G10 currencies.
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Peter Kinsella, UBP’s Global Head of FX and Commodity Strategy, discussed the outlook for the USD with Andreas Koenig, Amundi’s Head of Currency Management.
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The US dollar has declined by more than 10% since President Trump took office, driven by policy uncertainty, lower growth expectations, and rising inflation concerns.
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Demand for gold continues to rise
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The Dollar and the Donald
Observers and investors were expecting the US dollar to go up in value. This was without counting on the new US administration’s erratic policymaking and announcements on tariffs. Where is it going next and what other factors are affecting the greenback?
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Europe: rewriting its future
The US–Europe relations prevailing since World War II are shifting.
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Silver: onwards and upwards
At UBP, we think that silver is set to rise substantially over the coming weeks and months, reflecting large global inventory shifts and an increasingly compelling valuation profile.
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New record for gold
Gold can continue to rise above levels of USD 3,000 per oz this year, as supported by several factors.