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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
jeudi 13 août
US: better than expected weekly jobless claims

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug.8): 963k vs 1100k expected (prior: 1191k revised from 1186k)

  • Continuing claims: 15 486 k after 16 090 k the prior week.
  • Jobless claims have improved further and passed below 1 million.
  • After fears of a renewed deterioration in July, labor trend has regained and data have improved on parallel with latest non-farm payrolls.

 

US: Import price index (July): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.4%)

  • Prices of imported goods remained on sustained trend, particularly oil (7.8% m/m) and industrial supplies (3.1% m/m).
  • Export prices were up by 0.8% m/m (1.2% m/m the prior month).
  • Import prices were less negative on a yearly basis (from -3.9% y/y the prior month to -3.3% y/y).

 

UK: RICS house price balance (July): 12% vs -5% expected (prior: -13% revised from -15%)

  • Sentiment has sharply rebounded on prices and future sales.
  • The index was back to the range seen in Q1-20

 

France: Unemployment rate (Q2-20): 7.1% vs 8.3% expected (prior: 7.8%)

  • Supports to labor have maintained unemployment at a low level but the unemployment ratio is expected to rise in H2-20 despite ongoing public supports with labor force adjustments in corporates.

 

Germany: CPI (July): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Cuts in VAT tax has led to global decline in prices in all sectors; yearly trend declined from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 0% y/y. Core inflation was down by 0.5% m/m and declined from 1.3% y/y the prior month to 0.7% y/y.

 

Spain: CPI (July): -1.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • While energy-transport prices were up over the month, prices of food, clothes (-20% m/m), hotels-leisure and communication were down over the month.
  • Headline inflation has declined further, from -0.3% y/y the prior month to -0.7% y/y. Core inflation has eased from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.6% y/y.
mercredi 12 août
US: earlier than expected normalization in inflation pattern

US: CPI (July): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • A larger than expected rebound in inflation due to energy and services over the month.
  • Energy prices were up by 2.5% m/m (motor fuel up by 5.5% m/m), apparel prices up by 1.1% m/m (2.3% m/m on used cars), services were up by 0.6% m/m, fueled by medical care (0.5% m/m) and communication (1.1% m/m). Food prices were down by 0.4% m/m.
  • Yearly trend has rebounded on headline index from 0.6% y/y the prior month to 1% y/y, and core inflation from 1.2% y/y to 1.6% y/y.
  • This represents a normalization in the inflation pattern earlier than expected (with parallel normalization in inflation expectations), due to reversal in food and energy prices from the trend seen during the lockdown, and a larger but temporary rebound in some sectors with the reopening of the economy.
  • The decline in inflation has favored purchasing power in Q2, which is no longer the case.
  • These data should comfort the Fed to adopt rapidly an “average inflation” target in its forward guidance policy on rates.

 

UK: GDP (Q2-20): -20.4% q/q vs -20.7% expected (prior: -2.2%)

  • A large fall in all GDP components with the lockdown in place; consumption was down by 23% q/q, investment down by 25% q/q and trade (exports and imports) has fallen in parallel. Public consumption has also fallen by 14% q/q during the period.
  • Separately, monthly proxy of GDP has pointed to progressive recovery (2.4% m/m in May, 8.7% m/m in June), thanks to rebound in domestic demand and in industrial activity with the end of the lockdown.

 

Sweden: CPI (July): 0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Food, transport-energy and leisure prices have rebounded over the month.
  • Yearly trend has declined from 0.7% y/y the prior month to 0.5% y/y; core inflation has regained from 1.3% y/y the prior month to 1.5% y/y.

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (June): 9.1% m/m vs 10% expected (prior: 12.3% revised from 12.4%)

  • The rebound in activity has continued with the end of the lockdown and all sectors have shown a rebound in production, even at a slower pace than in May. The rebound was the most pronounced in sectors hit by the lockdown.
  • The total index stayed 13% below its pre-COVID level.

 

Brazil: Retail sales (June): 12.6% m/m vs 6.7% expected (prior: 19.2% revised from 19.6%)

  • The rebound in consumption continued in June, driven by all sectors except food. Largest rebound was seen in clothes and leisure goods.
  • On a yearly basis, sales were up by 0.5% y/y from -6.4% y/y the prior month.
mardi 11 août
US: weakening sentiment among small-medium sized firms and firmer PPI due to energy prices

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (July): 98.8 vs 100.5 expected (prior: 100.6)

  • After a rebound in the past 3 months, sentiment has weakened on future economic situation, future higher sales and on opportunities to expand.
  • Plan to hire people has modestly increased from past month.
  • Despite a rebound over past 4 months, the total index remained well below its Feb. level.

 

US: PPI (July): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Energy prices were up by 5.3% m/m and trade services up by 0.8% m/m; core PPIs were up by 0.3% m/m, same pace as the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has turned less negative, from -0.8% y/y the prior month to -0.4% y/y. Core PPI ex trade costs have rebounded from -0.1% y/y to 0.1% y/y.
  • Energy prices and trade services were responsible for the rebound in prices, pointing to rising costs and some pressure on corporate margins.

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (July): 3.9% vs 4.2% expected (prior: 3.9%)

  • Claimant count rate: 7.5% after 7.2% the prior month (revised down from 7.3%). Employment has declined by 220 k over the past three months.
  • Jobless claims have increased by 94.4 k over the month after a decline by 68.5 k (-28.5 k previous estimate).
  • After some improvement in June, negative trend has come back with strong rise in jobless claims.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to rebound sharply in H2 if public measures on labor and wage end next October.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (June): -1.2% y/y vs -1.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)

  • Wages were down in all sectors except the public sector. Furloughed workers have benefited from public support on wages to compensate the loss in income.

 

UK: BRC retail sales (July): 4.3% y/y (prior: 10.9%)

  • Non-food sales remained on a sustained trend over the past two months.

 

Sweden: Unemployment rate (July): 5.7% (prior: 5.3%)

  • Unemployment rate is on a rising trend since Feb. (4%).

 

Germany: Zew (Aug.): 71.5 vs 55.8 expected (prior: 59.3)

  • While sentiment on current situation has deteriorated, expectations have rebounded further among financial community.

 

lundi 10 août
US: strong June job openings

US: JOLTS Job Openings (June): 5889 vs 5300 expected (prior: 5397)

  • Job openings were strong in June and hirings also sustained (even lower than in May) with reopening of the economy.
  • Openings and hirings were particularly strong in services. In parallel, separations and quitters ratios have increased from May to June.

 

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (July): 3.3% vs 3.4% expected (prior: 3.3%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased over the month, notably long-term unemployed, but the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stayed stable.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (June): 2.9% m/m (prior: 2% revised from 1.2%)

  • Yearly trend has turned less negative from -9.2% y/y the prior month to -58% y/y.

 

Norway: CPI (July): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Prices of food, household goods and transport have strongly rebounded over the month; core inflation was up by 0.9% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend stayed quite stable (1.3% y/y after 1.4% y/y the prior month), while core inflation has gained from 3.1% y/y to 3.5% y/y.

 

France: Business sentiment (Bank of France) (July): 99 vs 92 expected (prior: 89)

  • Sentiment has regained further on production and orders. Absolute level of orders remained depressed.
  • Separately, sentiment has improved on in parallel in services, while it has stagnated in construction.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (May): 12.9% (prior: 12.8%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased over the month and trend remained up; the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has increased from 13.8% the prior month to 14%.
vendredi 07 août
Stronger than expected US non-farm payrolls

US: Non-farm payrolls (July): 1800k vs 1480k expected (prior: 4800k)

  • Unemployment rate has fallen from 11.1% to 10.2% (10.6% expected)
  • Better than expected job creations, even lower than the past month.
  • Creations were still strong in services (1423 k after 4222 k prior month): leisure-hospitality (592 k), public sector (301 k), retail (258 k). Creations were modest but positive on construction and manufacturing (20-26 k range).
  • Alternative measures on unemployment rates have decreased: U6 from 18% to 16.5%.
  • Hours worked were quite stable (34.5 after 34.6); wage growth remained on a 4.8% y/y trend.
  • Finally, the "strong numbers" mentioned by Trump, which is positive for the underlying economic recovery but less so for ongoing fiscal negotiations at Congress.

 

Germany: Trade Balance (June): 15.6bn EUR vs 11.3bn expected (prior: 7bn revised from 7.1bn)

  • Current account: EUR 22.4 bn after 7 bn the prior month.
  • Exports: 14.9% m/m after 8.9% m/m the prior month; imports: 7% m/m after 3.6% m/m the prior month.
  • Export growth is gaining more traction, refueling orders in industry.

 

Germany: Industrial production (June): 8.9% m/m vs 8.2% expected (prior: 7.4% revised from 7.8%)

  • A second month of a strong rebound in production of capital goods. Rebound has accelerated in the other sectors, notably the consumer goods.
  • Total production index remained well below its March-Feb level.

 

France: Industrial production (June): 12.7% m/m vs 8.4% expected (prior: 19.9% revised from 19.6%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 14.4% m/m after 22.2% m/m the prior month.
  • The rebound was once again driven by auto and also by activity in refinery over the past two months.

 

Spain: Industrial production (June): 14% m/m vs 10% expected (prior: 14.3% revised from 14.7%)

  • A second month of strong recovery in industrial activity; the rebound was mainly driven by capital goods and the auto sector, but production momentum was also sustained in the other sectors.
  • Total index of production was higher than its March level, but below the Feb. level.

 

Norway: Industrial production (June): -2.2% m/m (prior: -0.9% revised from -1%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 0.4% m/m after -3% m/m the prior month.
  • Only chemical and ships-oil platforms sectors have shown growth in production over the month.

 

Brazil: CPI (July): 0.36% m/m vs 0.35% expected (prior: 0.26%)

  • Trend has slightly accelerated from 2.13% y/y the prior month to 2.31% y/y.
  • Prices of transport, housing and energy have rebounded over the month.

 

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