Market insight

US: Initial jobless claims (March 21): 3283k vs 1700k expected (prior: 282k revised from 281k)

• Continuing claims: 1803 k after 1702 k.
• Jobless claims have entered unchartered territory, far above what was seen in 2008 (665 k) or in 1982 (695 k).
• The largest rebound in jobless claims were seen in Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Texas and California.
• Shutdown should continue to fuel high levels of weekly jobless claims as long as it is in place, putting pressure on Administration for a quick implementation of the support measures.

US: GDP (Q4-08): 2.1% q/q as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• No major revisions during the final estimates of Q4 GDP; private domestic demand was confirmed up by 1.3% q/q.

US: Wholesale inventories (Feb.): -0.5% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.4%)

• Sales have even more declined than inventories: -1% m/m after 0.4% m/m the previous month.

UK: Retail sales (Feb.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 0.9%)

• After strong rebound past month, sales have decreased for food sales in volume terms, while t they were positive for household goods (0.8% m/m). On-line sales have also decreased over the month.

Eurozone: M3 (Feb.): 5.5% y/y vs 5.2% expected (prior: 5.2%)

• Credit to the private sector remained on a stable 3.4% y/y trend, but lending to corporates has moderated from 3.2% y/y to 3%y/y. M1 growth pace has slightly accelerated from 7.9% y/y the prior month to 8.1% y/y.

France: Business confidence (March): 95 vs 97 expected (prior: 105)

• Sentiment in manufacturing has moderately eased from 101 to 98; nevertheless, the outlook on production has turned dramatically negative, and the index has reached the lows seen in 2012 but remained above the 2008 lows. Outlook on orders has decreased for both domestic and foreign demand.
• Separately, sentiment has also declined in services and retail sector, while it stayed stable in construction.

UK: BoE has not changed its key rates at 0.1%.

• The Bank expects a sharp fall in GDP in H1-20 and mentioned downside risks related to the COVID. The Bank has not changed its strategy on assets purchased but is ready to adapt in relation to economic environment.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Apr.): 2.7 vs 7.5 expected (prior: 8.3 revised from 9.8)

• Confidence has been revised down the prior month, and the index has fallen further for the month under review. Expectations have decreased below the 2012 level but remained far above the 2008 level.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (March): 89.6 (prior: 98.5)

• Sentiment has deteriorated on present and future economic situation and on employment too.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (March): 100.7 (prior: 104.4 revised from 104.7)

• Sentiment has decreased in all sectors; the index remained above the 2019 and 2012 lows.

US: Durable goods orders (Feb.): 1.2% m/m vs -0.9% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.2%)

• Defense orders were up by 25.7% m/m and drove total orders up; on the opposite, orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were down by 0.8% m/m after 1% m/m the prior month.
• Preliminary data were still relatively positive, but shutdown in several sectors (airlines, autos, Boeing…) will impact negatively the supply chain and related orders from the US and foreign countries too.

US: House price Index MoM (FHFA) (Jan.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)

• Prices remained on positive trend at the beginning of the year, being up by 5.2% y/y. Shutdown and COVID may curb this trend despite low interest rates.

Germany: IFO (March): 86.1 vs 87.7 expected (prior: 96)

• Final data have fallen more than in the first estimates. The index is now entering in the range seen in 2008-2009 (90-80).
• Current assessment has fallen, but expectations have plunged dramatically: the index has abruptly fallen close to the 2008 levels (79.2 lowest point).
• By sector, sentiment has also fallen further than initial estimates, particularly in manufacturing and trade sectors; sentiment in construction remained positive.

UK: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• After a large fall in several sectors the prior month, monthly prices have rebounded in many sectors, except in energy: clothes, household goods and leisure services and tourism. This should reverse in the coming month, with lockdown coming on.
• Yearly changes have just moderated from 1.8% y/y the prior month to 1.7% y/y.

UK: PPI Input prices (Feb.): -1.2% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.9%)

• Prices of materials have decreased by 1.6% m/m, while other manufacturing prices were up by 0.7% m/m.
• Yearly trend has turned back to negative territory: -0.5% y/y after 1.6% y/y the prior month.

UK: PPI Output prices (Feb.): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)

• Energy prices were down by 3.5% m/m and manufacturing prices were down by 0.3% m/m; yearly trend has slowed down from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.4% y/y.

Norway: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 3.8% vs 3.9% expected (prior: 3.9%)

• Trend in labor remained quite stable over the month.

Brazil: CPI (March): 0.02% m/m vs 0.06% expected (prior: 0.22%)

• Except health care, prices for transport-energy, clothes and household goods were down over the month. Yearly trend (IPCA index) has declined from 4.21% y/y the prior month to 3.67% y/y.

Brazil: Current account (Feb.): -3904 M$ vs -3400 M$ expected (prior: -11879 M$)

• Foreign direct investment: 5996 M after 5618 M past month.

Turkey: Industrial confidence (March): 98.6 (prior: 106.7)

• Sentiment has decreased on production, orders and exports, while inventories were on the rise,
• The index has fallen rapidly as seen in 2018, but it remained relatively high.

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Macrh): 49.2 vs 43.5 expected (prior: 50.7)

• Sentiment has fallen sharply on production, new orders and exports.
• The longer supply delivery due to disruption in industry has artificially increased the PMI index, but in fact it argued in favour of a significant lower index.
• More worryingly, employment component has falling more rapidly than in the 2008-09 period.

US: Markit Services PMI (March): 39.1 vs 42 expected (prior: 49.4)

• The index has fallen more than manufacturing, as manufacturing index is artificially fueled by rise in delivery.
• Orders and activity are on the decline and views on future activity has also declined; employment has also significant decreased.
• As mentioned in our macro update, economic indicators are now pointing towards potential recession in the US and Europe; the next worry will be the negative impact on employment, which should push US Congress and EU Eurogroup and European Commission to act very quickly and, even for European authorities to increase even more their support.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (March): 44.8 vs 39 expected (prior: 49.2)

• According to preliminary data, sentiment in manufacturing was more resilient than expected, but it could fall further with extended lockdown on activity.
• Sentiment has only eased by 3 points in Germany, while it decreased by 7 points in France, according to first estimates.
• Sentiment has fallen on orders, exports and production, as well as on employment. The fall is larger than suggested by the headline numbers as delivery problems have increased and inventories have decreased.

Eurozone: PMI Services (March): 28.4 vs 39.5 expected (prior: 52.6)

• According to first estimates, sentiment has sharply fallen in services, more than the manufacturing index.
• The fall was larger in France than in Germany, according to preliminary data, but the eurozone index was even lower than France (29) and German (34.5) index suggesting a dramatic fall in Spain and Italy.
• The index came 10 points (!) below the levels seen in 2008 (39.3).

UK: PMI Manufacturing (March): 48 vs 45 expected (prior: 51.7)

• As seen in other indices, manufacturing sector was more resilient than expected.
• Nevertheless, sentiment on orders, production, prices and employment has significantly decreased over the month; lack of components in industry and lengthening delivery chain were also mentioned. Only food and pharma sectors have benefited from rising demand and production.

UK: PMI Services (March): 35.7 vs 45 expected (prior: 53.2)

• According to first estimates, the fall was more severe than expected; the index is now lower than the 2008-2009 level (39.7). Transport, hotels-restaurants and business services were the most hit sectors.

Poland: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 5.5% as expected (prior: 5.5%)

• Unemployed marginally eased from the prior month, but the unemployment ratio stayed stable.

Brazil: Retail sales (Jan.): 0.6% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: -0.8%)

• Core sales, excluding autos, were heavily down over the month, from -0.5% m/m the prior month to -1% m/m, driven down by oil, food and furniture purchases.
• The yearly change remained positive, but it has moderated from 4.1% y/y the prior month to 3.5%y/y, and from 2.6% y/y to 1.3% y/y for core sales.

Brazil: Consumer confidence (March): 80.2 (prior: 87.8)

• Sentiment on current situation and expectations have both decreased over the month; the expectations index has fallen by 10 points.
• Total index remained above levels seen in 2015-2016.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (March): -11.6 vs -13 expected (prior: -6.6)

• Preliminary data pointed towards falling confidence, but slightly less than expected.
• The index remained far above the 2008 and 2012 lows, but more weakening could be seen if quarantine and COVID contagion still active.

Switzerland: M3 (Feb.): 0% y/y (prior: 0% revised from 0.3%)

• M1 and M2 have turned negative in yoy terms, while M3 was on a flat trend.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (March): 58.2 (prior: 57.3)

• Sentiment has improved over the month, but it remained below Q4 level.
• Opinions have improved on unemployment, but expectations on economy have eased further.