1. Expertises d'investissement
  2. Market insight
Menu

Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
lundi 16 juillet
US core retail sales growth a bit weaker in June

US: Retail sales (June): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 0.8%)

  • Ex auto and gasoline: 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 0.8%)
  • The headline index was in line with expectations thanks to a strong 0.9% m/m rise in auto sales and 1.0% increase in gasoline station sales.
  • Core measures were slightly weaker than expected but this follows big upward revisions to earlier months, which mean that real consumption growth should have accelerated to a healthy 3% annualised in Q2 (vs 0.9% in Q1). Note that non-store retail sales recorded a 1.3% m/m rise, the biggest gain this year.

 

US: Empire manufacturing (July): 22.6 vs 21.0 expected (prior: 25.0)

  • The index remains at elevated levels but underlying composition was also a bit weaker with a softening across all the three main components (new orders, shipments and employment).

 

US: Business inventories (May): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

 

Russia: Industrial production (June): 2.2% y/y vs 3.2% expected (prior: 3.7%)

  • Industrial production fell 0.2% m/m in June vs +1.5% in May. However, the decline was explained by utilities (-9.8% m/m) and mining (-0.5%) as manufacturing production was up 1.0% m/m after +3.0% in May.

Turkey: Unemployment rate (April): 9.6% vs 9.2% expected (prior: 10.1%)

vendredi 13 juillet
Weakening US consumer confidence

US: Import price index (June): -0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.6%)

  • Import prices were up by 4.3% y/y; export prices were up by 0.3% m/m, up by 5.3% y/y.
  • Import prices of food and oil products have fallen sharply over the month; export prices of industrial goods were up by 1.2% m/m.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (July): 97.1 vs 98 expected (prior: 98.2)

  • While expectations were stable, sentiment on current situation has moderated, being highly volatile over the past months.
  • Financial situation seemed less favorable than in the prior month, and views on business (past, present and future) have significantly decreased, probably reflecting worries related to debate on trade.
  • Willingness to buy large items has decreased, being below levels seen over the past three months.
  • Inflation expectations have slightly moderated from past month: 2.9% y/y at 1 year (-0.1 pp); 2.4% y/y at 5-10y (-0.2pp).

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (June): 0.2% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

  • Import prices were up by 6.8% y/y; producer prices were up by 1.9% y/y.
  • Trend in prices is progressively rising, fueled by energy prices and changes in currency.

Germany: Wholesale price (June): 0.5% m/m (prior: 0.8%)

  • Trend in prices has accelerated since April, partly due to a weaker EUR and rising energy prices.
  • Prices were up by 3.4% y/y (2.9% y/y in May).

Spain: CPI (June): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • Final data point towards rising inflation trend; over the month, prices of food, housing and leisure have shown the largest monthly rise.
jeudi 12 juillet
US inflation: moderate monthly change but still rising trend

US: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Prices of energy, computers and apparels have declined over the month; services were up by 0.1% m/m but rents stayed on a stable rise (0.3% m/m) and medical prices have increased further. Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m as expected.
  • Yearly trend has slightly increased at 2.9% y/y (headline) and 2.3% y/y (core), being up by one tenth from the prior month.
  • Some pressures on prices could result from the rise on tariffs on specific items decided recently; nevertheless, the US inflation is expected to moderate at year end, providing no further external shocks from oil or tariffs.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (July 7): 214k vs 225k expected (prior: 232k revised from 231k)

  • Continuing claims: 1739 k after 1742 k past week.

 

UK: RICS house price balance (June): 2% vs -4% expected (prior: -2% revised from -3%)

  • Balance of opinions on prices has improved on future sales.

 

Sweden: CPI (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Inflation has accelerated from 1.9% y/y to 2.1% y/y; core inflation stayed on a 0.3% m/m and yearly trend has increased from 2.1% y/y to 2.2% y/y.

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (May): 1.3% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.9%)

  • Production in consumer and intermediary goods has reversed after the fall seen in April; trend is back above 2% y/y (2.4% y/y).

 

France: CPI (June): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Final estimate was lower than expected; monthly change was flat due to declining prices of fresh food; yearly trend was up by 2.3% y/y.

 

Germany: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Final inflation has confirmed some moderation on monthly changes; inflation remained above 2% on yearly comparison.

 

Brazil: Retail sales (May): -0.6% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 1%)

  • Except food, sales have deteriorated on all sectors over the month, but slightly less than expected.
  • Negative data could result from strikes in May.
mercredi 11 juillet
US: rising headline and core PPI

US: PPI (June): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Energy, services (transport) and core goods were firmer than prior month, while food prices declined. Core PPI was up by 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% m/m expected.
  • PPIs stayed on a rising trend, up from 3.1% y/y in May to 3.4% yy in June. Core PPIs were up from 2.6% y/y to 2.7% y/y.
  • Some rises in core PPIs could be seen later on the CPI trend (index to be published tomorrow).

 

US: Wholesale inventories (May): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Inventories have increased for machinery and drugs from past month; separately, sales have accelerated, particularly for autos, computers and oil products.
  • The inventory-to-sales ratio has declined from 1.27 to 1.24.

 

 

Turkey: Current account (May): -5.89bn USD vs -5.3bn expected (prior: -5.45bn revised from -5.43bn)

  • Trade deficit has increased due to a rebound in imports on weaker currency.
  • Net services and foreign direct investment have both declined from past month.
  • In terms of balance of payments, official reserves have declined by USD 2.8 bn over the month.

 

mardi 10 juillet
US: lower job openings but higher rotation; mixed industrial production in Europe

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (June): 107.2 vs 106.9 expected (prior: 107.8)

  • Sentiment has eased somewhat on future economic conditions and sales.
  • Plan for capex has eroded, but the index remained high, while plan to hire has increased further.
  • The index was volatile over the past months, but it remains close to its highest level.

 

US: JOLTS Job Openings (May): 6638 vs 6620 expected (prior: 6840 revised from 6698)

  • Job openings have moderated, but remained high.
  • Lower openings were centered in services: information, business services, education-health and leisure; openings have also eased in manufacturing.
  • Hirings rebounded in May, particularly in construction, business services healthcare and leisure.
  • Quitters have also increased over the month, and particularly in trade, healthcare and leisure.
  • Positive trend in labor has led to a higher rotation, with obvious tensions in some specific sectors.

 

Germany: Zew (July): -24.7 vs -18.9 expected (prior: -16.1)

  • Expectations and opinions on current situation have both declined more than expected. Expectations were back to the lows seen in 2012.
  • Escalating risks of a trade war have weighted down on sentiment, despite recent more positive signals on activity.

 

France: Industrial production (May): -0.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.5%)

  • Manufacturing production was down by 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% m/m expected (0.4% m/m in the prior month).
  • Activity has contracted in all sectors, except on energy. Strikes and a short month (in terms of working days) could partly explain these relatively poor figures.

 

Italy: Industrial production (May): 0.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -1.3% revised from -1.2%)

  • Production has rebounded after contraction in May in all sectors, except consumer durable goods.
  • Industrial activity shows a 2% y/y trend, but domestic political uncertainties and trade dispute fuel downside risks on growth.

 

UK: Industrial production (May): -0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1% revised from -0.8%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 0.4% m/m vs 0.7% m/m expected (-1.3% m/m in Apr.).
  • Production in energy and machinery equipment stayed negative over the month, while clothes and pharma sectors have shown the largest rebound.
  • Production trend has turned more volatile and stayed weak, below 1% y/y.

 

UK: BRC retail sales (June): 1.1% y/y (prior: 2.8%)

  • After huge volatility in May and April, figures have slightly improved, showing a pace of growth above 1% y/y,
  • Good weather conditions and the World Cup have boosted sales

 

Norway: CPI (June): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Inflation has accelerated from 2.3% y/y in May to 2.6% y/y; core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m, but trend was stable at 1.1% y/y. Housing, transport and leisure have shown a strong monthly rebound.
Macro economic

The Chief Economist's weekly update

To help you navigate through the economic news, here is a summary of last week’s main events and what to look out for next week.
Lire la suite

Clients institutionnels

Avec plus de 200 professionnels de l’investissement, UBP Asset Management a réussi à se doter d’une présence locale sur les principaux marchés mondiaux, grâce à une croissance organique et à des partenariats ciblés.

Notre gamme de fonds

Fonds

Consultez l'intégralité de nos fonds.