Daily Macro Digest

vendredi 23 juin
Flash PMI manufacturing: easing further in the US, still rising in the Eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (June): 52.1 vs 53 expected (prior: 52.7)

  • Business confidence has eroded further in manufacturing; the index is now expected to stabilize around this level, which still remains in line with a 2%-2.5% growth scenario.

US: Markit Services PMI (June): 53 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.6)

  • According to flash estimate, sentiment has also eroded further in services.

US: New home sales (May): 610k vs 590k expected (prior: 593k revised from 569k)

  • A rebound in sales, while momentum stayed positive for prices.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (June): 57.3 vs 56.8 expected (prior: 57)

  • According to flash estimate, sentiment on manufacturing has slightly increased from past month, except in Germany.

Eurozone: PMI Services (June): 54.7 vs 56.1 expected (prior: 56.3)

  • According to flash estimate, sentiment on services has weakened in all countries, due to lower future activity and less price pressures. Nevertheless, the index remains at a high level.
  • In Germany, sentiment has moderated in both manufacturing and services.
  • Composite PMI (mix of manufacturing and services) continues to underpin a positive outlook on Eurozone growth.

Italy: Industrial orders (Apr.): -0.7% m/m (prior: -4.3% revised from -4.2%)

  • Industrial sales: -0.5% m/m after 0.4% m/m past month. Foreign orders were also weak on a monthly basis.
  • Industrial activity remains highly volatile and fragile in Italy.
jeudi 22 juin
US home price index higher than expected, consumer confidence continued to improve in EZ

US: Initial jobless claims (Jun 17): 241k vs 240k expected (prior: 238k revised from 237k)

  • Continuing claims: 1944k vs 1928 expected (prior: 1936k revised from 1935k).
  • This figure continues to signal healthy labor markets.


US: House price Index MoM (FFHA) (Apr): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)

  • Home price rose in 7 of the report's 9 regions.
  • Over the past year, the national index has risen 6.8%.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Jun A): -1.3 vs -3 expected (prior: -3.3)

  • Consumer sentiment continued to improve, reaching its highest level since April 2001.
  • This may have reflected the continued run of positive economic data, the decline in inflation since the start of the year, and possibly some optimism that Mr Macron’s parliamentary majority will allow him to push through growth-enhancing reforms.


France: Business confidence (Jun): 106 vs 105 expected (prior: 105 revised from 105)

  • Manufacturing confidence: 108 vs 109 expected (prior: 105)
mercredi 21 juin
Solid US existing home sales

US: Existing home sales (May): 5.62M vs 5.55M expected (prior: 5.56M revised from 5.57M)

  • Existing home sales remain very close to the cycle highs reached earlier this year. Median sales price rose 5.8% y/y to a new record.
  • The broad-based improvement in homes sales (across regions) was particularly encouraging in the context of higher mortgage rates.


Switzerland: M3 (May): 4.1% y/y (prior: 3.2% revised from 3.0%)

  • Money supply rose at its highest pace since March 2014.
mardi 20 juin
Russia: lower unemployment rate and improving retail sales

Sweden: Unemployment rate (May): 6.7% (prior: 6.7% revised from 6.6%)

  • Unemployed was quite stable over the month.


Germany: PPI (May): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Prices were up by 2.8% y/y; ex oil prices were flat over the month and up by 2.6% y/y.


Poland: Industrial production (May): 5.5% m/m vs 5.1% expected (prior: -13.3%)

  • Production was up by 9.1% y/y, driven by manufacturing and construction sectors.


Poland: Retail sales (May): -0.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1.2%)

  • Sales were up by 8.4% y/y. Despite a monthly rebound in autos and clothes, sales were negative in other main sectors over the month.


Poland: PPI (May): -0.5%m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • PPI were up by 2.5% y/y.


Russia: Unemployment rate (May): 5.2% as expected (prior: 5.3%)

  • Unemployed decreased by 105 k over the month.


Russia: Retail sales (May): 0.7% y/y vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

  • Despite a rebound over the month, trend remains modest.


Russia: Real wages (May): 3.7% y/y vs 2.4% expected (prior: 3.7% revised from 2.5%)

  • Real disposable income: -0.4% y/y after -7.5% y/y prior month.
vendredi 16 juin
US: weak consumer confidence and housing starts

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Jun P): 94.5 vs 97 expected (prior: 97.1)

  • Despite the decline, the index remains at a fairly strong level by past standards and suggests that the prospects for consumer spending remain bright.
  • Inflation expectations were unchanged in June for the one year ahead measure at 2.6% and rose for the five-to-ten year ahead measure to 2.6% (from 2.4%).


US: Housing starts (May): 1092k vs 1220k expected (prior: 1156k revised from 1172k)

  • On a m/m basis: -5.5% vs 4.1% expected (prior: -2.8% revised from -2.6%)
  • Building permits: 1168k vs 1249k expected (prior: 1228k revised from 1229k); -4.9% vs 1.7% expected (prior: -2.5%)
  • The decline in housing starts was in both single-family building and new apartment construction.


Eurozone: CPI (May): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.4%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.4% as expected (prior: 1.9%)
  • CPI core y/y: 0.9% as expected (prior: 0.9%)
  • Food prices rose by 1.5% y/y, while energy prices rose by 4.5% y/y.


Russia: Bank of Russia cut its key interest rates by 25bp to 9%, as expected


Russia: Industrial production (May): 5.6% y/y vs 2.4% expected (prior: 2.3%)

  • Manufacturing rose by 5.7% y/y, while mining increased by 5.6% y/y.

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