Market insight

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Feb.): 36.7 vs 11 expected (prior: 17)

• Sentiment has strongly rebounded on new orders on both current situation and future situation. Shipments have also improved, while sentiment on employment has slightly eased as well as future capex.
• As seen in the New York Empire index, business sentiment has improved on firmer activity.

​US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.15): 210k as expected (prior: 206k revised from 205k)

• Continuing claims:1726 k after 1701k past week.

UK: Retail sales (Jan.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• A strong rebound in sales, helped by strong discount in clothes, except for auto fuel and household goods.

Switzerland: Trade balance (Jan.): 4.78 Bn CHF (prior: 1.97Bn)

• Surplus has rebounded as exports were up by 1.7% m/m (real terms) and imports were down by 1.8% m/m (real terms).

France: CPI (Jan.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Final inflation has confirmed the monthly decrease, while yearly comparison has slightly increased (1.7% y/y after 1.6% y/y).
• The rise in monthly prices of energy and food were more than compensated by larger discounts in clothes prices.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (March): 9.8 as expected (prior: 9.9)

• Confidence has marginally eased after past month rebound.

Germany: PPI (Jan.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• A monthly rise driven by higher commodity and oil prices (this could revert by Feb., after the fall in oil prices).
• PPIs were up by 0.2% y/y after -0.2% y/y the prior month.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Feb.): -6.6 vs -8.2 expected (prior: -8.1)

• Preliminary estimates have shown improving sentiment after sluggish trend; no details available.

Brazil: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 87.8 (prior: 90.4)

• Expectations have strongly decreased, while views on current situation have improved.

Brazil: CPI (Feb.): 0.22% m/m vs 0.23% expected (prior: 0.71%)

• The IPCA index has moderated over the month, due to falling monthly prices in clothes, health and food prices.
• The yearly comparison has eased from 4.34 % y/y the prior month to 4.21% y/y.

Russia: Retail sales (Jan.): 2.7% y/y vs 2.2% expected (prior: 1.9%)

• Firmer trend in food and ongoing rising trend in non-food sales.

Russia: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 4.7% as expected (prior: 4.6%)

• Unemployed has marginally increased over the month.

Russia: Real wages (Dec.): 6.9% y/y vs 3.6% expected (prior: 2.7%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to a sharp rebound in real wages.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 57.3 vs 58.8 expected (prior: )

• Confidence has eased on unemployment, personal financial situation and future economic situation.
• Trend in confidence has moderated since past Nov.

US: Housing starts (Jan.): 1567k vs 1428k expected (prior: 1626k revised from 1608k)

• Building permits: 1551 k after 1420 k past month.
• Housing starts have decreased less than expected; single family houses remained above 1000 k and multi-family houses have slightly increased over the month. Building permits have increased for both categories, after past month correction.
• With low interest rates in place, trend should remain positive.

US: PPI (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Core PPIs were up by 0.4% m/m, due to services (trade), up by 0.7% m/m. Energy prices were down by 0.7% m/m.
• PPIs have accelerated from 1.3% y/y to 2.1% y/y and core PPIs stayed on a stable trend (1.5% y/y).

UK: CPI (Jan.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0%)

• The largest decreases were seen in clothes, housing and in transport costs. Core prices were down by 0.6% m/m.
• Yearly changes have accelerated from 1.3% to 1.8% y/y on headline prices and from 1.4% to 1.6% y/y for core prices.

UK: PPI Input prices (Jan.): 0.9% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.1%)

• Core input prices have also accelerated from 0.1% m/m to 1.1% m/m.
• Input prices were back into positive after being negative in Q3-19: up by 2.1% y/y after 0.9% y/y the prior month.

UK: PPI Output prices (Jan.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

• Specific sectors have contributed to the monthly rise: food, coke, basic metals and electrical equipment.
• Yearly trend has also accelerated, from 0.9% y/y to 1.1% y/y.

Sweden: CPI (Jan.): -1.4% m/m vs -1.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• A large fall of prices across sectors, driven particularly by clothes and food and household goods.
• Yearly trend has moderated from 1.8% y/y the prior month to 1.3% y/y; core inflation was down by 1.4% m/m, and they moderated from 1.7% y/y to 1.6% y/y.

Turkey: Central bank cut rates from 11.25% to 10.75%.

• Forward guidance still favors an easing bias, but statement has pointed towards underlying risks related to credit and balance sheets situation.

US: CPI (Jan.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m: services were firmer, up by 0.4% m/m, and prices of food were up by 0.2% m/m, and apparel prices up by 0.7% m/m; only transport, energy and computer prices were down over the month.
• Yearly trend has slightly accelerated for headline prices from 2.3% y/y to 2.5% y/y and core inflation stayed on a stable trend of 2.3% y/y.
• Headline inflation is expected to slightly moderate from the 2.5% y/y seen in Jan, but core inflation should remain above 2% y/y in the coming months.

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.8): 205k vs 210k expected (prior: 203k revised from 202k)

• Continuing claims: 1698 k after 1759 k past week.

UK: RICS house price balance (Jan.): 17% vs 3% expected (prior: 0% revised from -2%)

• Balance of opinions has strongly rebounded with prospect of rising buyers and prices.

France: Unemployment rate (Q4-19): 8.1% vs 8.5% expected (prior: 8.5% revised from 8.6%)

• Trend remained positive in labor and unemployment decreases regularly, helped by reforms adopted on labor.

Germany: CPI (Jan.): -0.8% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Sharp decrease in prices of clothes and in leisure package have driven inflation lower, despite a rebound in energy prices, higher food and rent prices.
• Inflation trend has slightly increased, from 1.5% y/y the prior month to 1.6% y/y.

Turkey: Industrial production (Dec.): 1.9% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.7%)

• Trend in production has strengthened from 4.9% y/y the prior month to 8.6% y/y.

Eurozone: Industrial production (Dec.): -2.1% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.2%)

• The fall on production was large across all sectors over the month, pointing to weak activity in industry at year-end.
• The rebound seen in PMI in Jan. could restore some momentum in activity, but negative spillover from the Covid-19 (coronavirus name) could bring more volatility in monthly figures and finally delay the recovery that was expected in Dec-Jan.
• The largest fall was seen in capital goods production down by 4% m/m after +0.9% m/m the prior month.
• The yearly trend has sharply deteriorated, down by 4.1% y/y, back to the lows seen in Dec. 2018.

Brazil: Retail sales (Dec.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)

• Broad sales were down by 0.8% m/m (-0.6% m/m the prior month).
• Sales have fallen across all sectors, except furniture and books.
• Yearly trend has moderated but remained positive (2.6% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month).