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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

vendredi 17 mai
US consumer confidence has reached new highs

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (May): 102.4 vs 97.2 expected (prior: 97.2)

  • Sentiment has rebounded on both current situation and expectations. The improvement was driven by rising opinions on personal financial situation, sustained labour market and satisfaction on the government's action. Nevertheless, the willingness to buy large items was mixed across sectors (house, autos), pointing to some cautiousness on spending.

  • The inflation expectations have increased from 2.5% to 2.8% y/y at 1 year and from 2.3% y/y to 2.6% y/y at 5-10 year.

  • The confidence index has recovered and exceeds the highs seen in 2018.


Eurozone: CPI (Apr.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 1%)

  • Final estimate has confirmed the monthly rise due to energy, clothes and transport sectors; core inflation has also rebounded by 0.9% m/m.

  • Trend in inflation has increased from1.4% y/y to 1.7% y/y and from 0.8% y/y to 1.3% y/y for core inflation.

  • Inflation is expected to moderate in the next months and to remain in a 1%-1.5% y/y range in future months.

jeudi 16 mai
US: strong rebound in housing starts

US: Housing starts (Apr.): 1235k vs 1209k expected (prior: 1168k revised from 1139k)

  • Building permits: 1296 k vs 1289 k expected (1288 k past month).
  • Single family and multifamily houses have all rebounded, but only building permits for multifamily houses have regained.
  • Trend has stabilized after very volatile data in past months.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): 16.6 vs 9 expected (prior: 8.5)

  • Sentiment has rebounded, mainly on current situation while expectations have barely changed; in details, sentiment on new orders has eased while shipments and employment have slightly increased.

US: Initial jobless claims (May 11): 212k vs 220k expected (prior: 228k)

  • Continuing claims: 1660 k after 1688 k past week.

France: Unemployment rate (Q1-19): 8.7% as expected (prior: 8.8%)

  • Trend in labor remained positive.
mercredi 15 mai
US: unexpected fall in retail sales and production

US: Retail sales (Apr.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.6%)

  • Core sales (ex-food, gas, building materials and auto dealers) were flat after 1% m/m the prior month.
  • Sales have decelerated in all sectors except sport; the rebound seen past month in autos, electronics and building materials has reversed. Sales were down driven mainly by reversal on auto and parts.
  • The yearly trend remains sustained (3% y/y), but volatile monthly data could revealed more cautious than expected households.


US: Empire manufacturing (May): 17.8 vs 8 expected (prior: 10.1)

  • Contrary to expectations, the index has rebounded further driven by improving current conditions (new orders, shipments) and expectations have also strongly recovered.
  • Regional surveys have turned more volatile in past months, and less synchronized across regions and sectors; this rise should point to potential stabilization ahead.


US: Industrial production (Apr.): -0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from -0.1%)

  • Production has fallen in all major sectors, except mining (oil and gas production). Major fall in autos and machinery. High inventories level and rising uncertainties on trade have fueled highly volatile production data on a monthly basis.


US: NAHB housing market index (March): 66 vs 64 expected (prior: 63)

  • Sentiment has improved on future and present sales.


US: Business inventories (March): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Inventories have decreased in retailers and sales were up by 1.6% m/m in March; inventories have increased further in manufacturers (regular rise in Q1). The improvement could reverse in April-May due to lower sales and ongoing rise in inventories.


France: CPI (Apr.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • Final data have confirmed the rebound in inflation, mainly due to energy and transport prices.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.3% y/y past month to 1.5% y/y.


Germany: GDP (Q1-19): 0.4% q/q as expected (prior: 0%)

  • Growth has rebounded in line with expectations, thanks to more resilient than expected domestic demand, including construction and public spending. More detailed figures by sectors will be published later.


Italy: Industrial orders (March): 2.2% m/m (prior: -2.8% revised from -2.7%)

  • Sales were up by 0.3% m/m; domestic sales and orders have further decreased, while the rebound was seen in foreign orders.


Poland: GDP (Q1-19): 1.4% q/q vs 1.2% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Poland has also benefited from the rebound in the German activity.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 14.7% vs 15% expected (prior: 14.7%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased, but the unemployment ratio has stabilized, and participation rate has slightly increased.
mardi 14 mai
Rising sentiment in US small & medium firms; falling expectations in Germany (ZEW index)

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Apr.): 103.5 vs 102 expected (prior: 101.8)

  • Sentiment has continued to recover, with improving outlook on the economy, more positive views on profits and on compensation.
  • The index remained below its 2018 average, but close to level seen in 2017, pointing in favor of a mini cycle in industry.


US: Import price index (Apr.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Oil and food prices have rebounded, while prices in other sectors stayed muted or even declined. Yearly trend has weakened to -0.2% y/y after 0.1% y/y past month.
  • Export prices were up by 0.2% m/m (0.6% m/m expected) after 0.6% m/m past month, and up by only 0.3% y/y.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (March): 3.8% vs 3.9% expected (prior: 3.9%)

  • Claimant count was stable at 3%; jobless claims have increased further from 22.6 k past month to 24.7 k. While trend remains positive in labor, pace to job creations has moderated since 2018 Dec.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (March): 3.2% y/y vs 3.4% expected (prior: 3.5%)

  • Bonuses have moderated over the past two months, leading to a slower trend in total compensation than in past months. Notably, trend in wages in construction has moderated at 2.1% y/y from 5.2% y/y past month.


Eurozone: Industrial production (March): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

  • Despite small upward revisions to past month data, production remained in contraction, due to fall in energy and non-durable consumer goods; production of capital goods and durable consumer goods have shown a modest rebound, but monthly volatility is huge since past Oct.
  • Yearly trend remains negative for total production (-0.6% y/y), but it is only slightly positive for capital goods (1.3% y/y).


Germany: Zew (May): -2.1 vs 5 expected (prior: 3.1)

  • Expectations on Germany among financial community have fallen back into negative territory, contrary to expectations. Sentiment on current situation has gained further after past month recovery.
  • By sector, sentiment remained depressed in autos, finance and it has deteriorated in steel and in mechanical engineering; it has increased in construction, telco and IT.


Germany: Wholesale price (Apr.): 0.6% m/m (prior: 0.3%)

  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 1.8% y/y to 2.1% y/y.


Germany: CPI (Apr.): 1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Final data confirmed the rebound due to energy, clothes and leisure services. Yearly trend was up from 1.3% y/y past month to 2.1% y/y.


Spain: CPI (Apr.): 1.1% m/m as expected (prior: 1.4%)

  • Prices have rebounded as expected, due to clothes, transport-energy and leisure services. Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.3% y/y to 1.6% y/y.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Apr.): 0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Import prices were down by 0.1% m/m; oil prices have rebounded, but food, other basic and consumer durable goods prices were down over the month. Producer prices were up by 0.1% m/m.
  • Trend in import/producer prices remained negative at -0.6% y/y after -0.2% y/y past month.


Sweden: CPI (Apr.): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Prices of clothes and transport have driven inflation up; yearly trend has reached 2.1% y/y after 1.9% y/y past month. Core inflation was up by 0.6% m/m, up by 1.6% y/y after 1.5% y/y past month.


Poland: Current account (March): 533Mio EUR vs -1187Mio expected (prior: -342Mio revised from -1386Mio)

  • Trade balance has shown a surplus after deficit, thanks to large rebound in exports.


Turkey: Industrial production (March): 2.1% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.3%)

  • Recovery has continued through Q1, driven up by capital goods production.
lundi 13 mai
France: eroding sentiment in industry, but positive views on orders

France: Business sentiment (Bank of France) (Apr.): 99 vs 100 expected (prior: 100)

  • Sentiment has eroded and details offer a mixed picture: weakening sentiment on production and lower inventories, while views were more positive on total orders.
  • Separately, sentiment on services has stabilized, but views on demand have slightly improved; sentiment on construction has also slightly increased.


Norway: GDP Mainland (Q1-19): 0.3% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 0.9%)

  • While consumption stayed on trend (0.5% q/q), investment has fallen by 1.2% q/q; exports and imports have rebounded and public consumption was also on the rise.
  • Growth was on a volatile trend, slowing from 2% y/y in Q4 to 1.4% y/y in Q1.


Turkey: Current account (March): -0.59bn USD vs -1bn expected (prior: -0.73bn revised from -0.72bn)

  • The trade deficit has increased, while the balance in services has improved; the current account deficit has narrowed from past month.
Macro economic

The Chief Economist's weekly update

To help you navigate through the economic news, here is a summary of last week’s main events and what to look out for next week.
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Expertise 06.05.2019

Initial thoughts on Trump’s new tariff threats

President Donald Trump has raised pressure on China to strike a trade deal by threatening a possible increase of tariff to 25% (from 10%) on $200bn worth of Chinese exports to US by Friday (May 10). He may also consider extending a new 25% duty on another $325bn worth of Chinese products.