Market insight

US: Retail sales (Aug): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.7%)

• Ex auto and gasoline: 0.1% vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Control retail sales, which is taken into account in GDP, increased by 0.3% m/m (as expected), the sixth consecutive monthly increase.

• Retail sales rose modestly in August, driven higher by a jump in auto buying and healthy online sales. Core retail sales momentum fell but remain supportive of consumption spending.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sep P): 92 vs 90.8 expected (prior: 89.8)

• Consumer sentiment jumped after the strong fall last month.

• Expectations and current situations sentiment have slightly increased. 

• Inflation expectations have eased from 2.6% y/y to 2.3% (5-10 year) but were higher at 2.8% (prior: 2.7%) over 1 year.

Turkey: Industrial production y/y (Jul): -1.2% y/y vs -2.6% expected (prior: -3.7% revised from -3.9%)

• On a m/m basis: 4.3% vs 1.4% expected (prior: -3.7% revised from -3.5%)

The ECB has finally surprised by its determination to do something significant despite weak consensus among governors and risks to disappoint.

• The list of measures adopted today represents a comprehensive monetary package which points towards a friendly monetary environment for the medium term, and opens the window to other rate cuts and higher QE if necessary.

• Deposit rate has been cut from -0.40% to -0.50%, and a two-tier system is introduced for some banks.

• Forward guidance on rates has changed, no longer referring to calendar, but now rates should remain low or lower until inflation (headline and core) data converge significantly and stabilize around the 2% target (to or slightly below 2%).

• QE has been relaunched, with EUR 20bn monthly purchases of assets; this should remain in place just before the first rate hike. QE is also related to forward guidance and to inflation scenario.

• The TLTRO III cost has been eased significantly from past announcement (June), to reinforce monetary policy transmission.

• The ECB forecasts have been revised down and growth should evolve just around 1% in 2019-2020 and to accelerate to 1.4% y/y in 2021; same for inflation scenario, expected to be at 1.2% in 2019, 1% in 2020 and 1.5% y/y in 2021.

• Downside risks remain in place and the growth slowdown and the below-target inflation were in place longer than expected by the ECB. This justifies the ECB to act now.

• Renewed call in favor of a more pro-active fiscal policy in favor of potential growth.

• Consensus on rates, forward guidance but not on QE, just a majority.

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept.7): 204k vs 215k expected (prior: 219k revised from 217k)

• Continuing claims: 1670 k after 1674 k past week.

US: CPI (Aug.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% m/m expected. Energy prices have fallen by 1.9% m/m, while computers, health costs and tobacco prices have rebounded, fueling the core inflation.

• Yearly trend has slightly eased for headline inflation (from 1.8% to 1.7% y/y), while core inflation was firmer (2.4% y/y after 2.2% y/y).

UK: RICS house price balance (Aug.): -4% vs -10% expected (prior: -9%)

• Sentiment of professionals on house prices has regained contrary to expectations; balance of opinions on current prices has rebounded from the highly depressed levels seen in March-April, but views of future prices remained highly depressed.

Eurozone: Industrial production (July): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -1.4% revised from -1.6%)

• Production has rebounded in capital goods and durable consumer goods, but not enough to compensate the fall in energy, intermediate and non-durable consumer goods.

• Yearly trend stayed negative, by 2% y/y.

France: CPI (Aug.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• The first estimated rebound in inflation has been confirmed, driven by higher fresh food and clothes prices. Energy prices have contracted.

• Yearly trend stayed stable at 1.3% y/y.

Germany: CPI (Aug.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Lower energy prices as well as leisure and education costs have driven inflation lower.

• Yearly trend has eased from 1.1% past month to 1% y/y.

Italy: Unemployment rate (Q2): 9.9% vs 10% expected (prior: 10.3% revised from 10.4%)

• Employment has rebounded in Q2, driving the unemployment ratio lower.

US: PPI (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Energy prices have fallen over the month (-2.5% m/m), while service prices were up by 0.3% m/m; part for services related to trade were up over the month, partly reflecting higher costs of transport related to higher tariffs.

• PPIs were up from 1.7% y/y prior month to 1.8% y/y and core inflation was up from 1.7% y/y to 1.9% y/y.

US: Wholesale inventories (July): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inventories have slightly increased (autos and computers), and sales have rebounded (0.3% m/m after -0.3% m/m).

• The inventory/sales ratio stayed stable at 1.36.

Spain: Industrial production (July): -0.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Except energy, production in other main sectors has contracted over the month: a sharp fall in capital goods and continuing contraction in consumer and intermediate goods.

• On seasonally adjusted data, production (0.8% y/y) has slowed down regularly since April.

Brazil: Retail sales (July): 1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.1%)

• Except for communication, the rebound in sales was broad-based across sectors.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Aug.): 103.1 vs 103.5 expected (prior: 104.7)

• After a rebound, sentiment has pulled back to the lows seen in June.

• Sentiment eased with less positive views on the future economy and future sales; plan to increase capex still remained high, while sentiment on hiring and compensation has eased from past month.

• After large fall in sentiment in H2-18, the index has slightly recovered but confidence in small firms remained fragile.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (July): 7217 vs 7331 expected (prior: 7248 revised from 7348)

• Job openings have moderated from past month and data were also revised lower.

• Hirings have gained further but in parallel with rising separations and quitters.

• As August payrolls have moderated, further moderation in job openings could be seen later on.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (July): 3.8% vs 3.9% expected (prior: 3.9%)

• Claimant count: 3.3% after 3.2% past month; jobless claims: 28.2 k after 19.8 k past month.

• The unemployment rate remained low, but job creations have trended lower and jobless claims trended higher over the past months.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (July): 4% y/y vs 3.7% expected (prior: 3.8% revised from 3.7%)

• Except manufacturing and public services, wage growth has accelerated in all other sectors, and particularly in construction and in finance.

• Trend in wage growth has regularly gained in past months; this supports consumption but represents also upside risks in terms of inflation.

France: Industrial production (July): 0.3% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -2.3%)

• Production in manufacturing was up by 0.3% m/m, partially recovering after the sharp fall the prior month.

• By sector, the picture offered large disparities; the rebound was centered on refinery and utilities, while autos, construction and intermediary sectors remained in contraction.

Italy: Industrial production (July): -0.7% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.2%)

• Production in pharma and machinery has sharply fallen over the month; other sectors offered a mixed picture.

Sweden: CPI (Aug.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Core inflation has also declined by 0.4% m/m; yearly trend has moderated from 1.7% y/y past month to 1.4% y/y, and from 1.7% y/y to 1.6% y/y for core inflation.

Norway: CPI (Aug.): -0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Core inflation has declined by 0.6% m/m (+0.6% m/m prior month); the yearly trend has declined from 1.9% y/y past month to 1.6% y/y; core inflation has just moderated from 2.2% y/y to 2.1% y/y.