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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
vendredi 22 mars
US-Eurozone: weakening sentiment in manufacturing and services

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (March): 52.5 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53)

  • Index was lower than expected due to lower sentiment on production.
  • First estimate points towards still weakening sentiment, now at the same level than in mid-2017; some stabilization is expected on Q2, with prospects of more visibility on global trade.

 

US: Markit Services PMI (March): 54.8 vs 55.5 expected (prior: 56)

  • Confidence has also weakened in services, on lower expectations and employment.
  • The index has been volatile over the past months, but it stayed in a large range of 52-55.
  • This weaker sentiment has to be validated by the ISM indices; they point towards moderate growth, but remained above any recession level. The mini cycle in activity is expected to recover progressively in the coming quarters.
  • The composite PMI has eased but it remained in the 54-56 range in place since 2017.

 

US: Existing home sales (Feb.): 5.51M vs 5.1M expected (prior: 4.93M revised from 4.94M)

  • Sales of single-family houses have sharply rebounded, recovering to its highest levels.
  • Average and median prices remained on a high pace (2.7% y/y and 3.7% y/y respectively).

 

US: Wholesale inventories (Jan.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1.1%)

  • Inventories remained on a rising trend in all major sectors (autos, machinery), sales have rebounded after a 3-month correction, driven by the auto sector. Inventory-to-sales ratio remained in a rising trend.

 

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (March): 47.6 vs 49.5 expected (prior: 49.3)

  • Flash estimate has pointed towards renewed weakness in business sentiment, probably due to rising uncertainties on US-EU auto trade and more globally on global trade.
  • PMI in France has passed just below 50, while the estimate for Germany has deteriorated further and reached very low levels (44.7), the same as during the 2012 European crisis.

 

Eurozone: PMI Services (March): 52.7 as expected (prior: 52.8)

  • The sentiment in services stayed close to past month level; estimates for France and Germany have shown a significant decrease, (below 50 in France), meaning the fall should be less pronounced in peripherals.
  • The composite PMI (services + manufacturing) has slightly eased over the month, as the weakness is more pronounced in the manufacturing sector; this point towards weak growth in Q1, with German industry still in contraction but a progressive stabilisation is expected over the next quarters.
jeudi 21 mars
US: firmer business confidence; UK: a rebound in sales, no change in BoE’s strategy

US: Philadelphia Fed. (March): 13.7 vs 4.8 expected (prior: -4.1)

  • Short-term views have improved, while expectations have declined.
  • A rebound in new orders and shipments has driven the views on current activity. Expectations have moderated on new orders, shipments and capex from high level.
  • This argues in favor of a mini cycle in industry, with some rebound in the short run and moderated growth in the medium term.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (March 16): 221k vs 225k expected (prior: 230k revised from 229k)

  • Continuing claims: 1750 k after 1777 k past week.

 

UK: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)

  • Sales have rebounded more than expected, including sales ex autos (+0.2% m/m). Except food and clothes, all other sectors have rebounded over the month.
  • Sales rebounded in Q1 after volatile and deteriorating data at year end. The trend remains heavily dependent on future developments on Brexit.

 

UK: The BoE has left unchanged its key rates ( 0.75%).

  • Assets purchase program remained in place. The guidance on rates (a gradual and limited tightening of monetary policy) remained in place.
  • BoE mentioned that the monetary response to the Brexit issue will not be automatic and could be "in either direction".
  • The Bank's strategy depends on the result of the ongoing Brexit negotiations.

 

Switzerland: M3 (Feb.): 3.5% y/y (prior: 3.2% revised from 3.4%)

  • Time deposits and M2 have rebounded in terms of yearly trend.

 

Switzerland: SNB has not changed its strategy.

  • Key rates remained at -0.75%; The Bank continued to view the CHF highly valued and ready to intervene in FX if necessary in parallel with the negative rates in place. The 2019 growth is expected at 1.5% and the inflation forecasts have been revised lower for 2019, from 0.5% y/y to 0.3% y/y, and for 2020, from 1% y/y to 0.6% y/y. The bank mentioned also persistent imbalances on mortgage and real estate markets.

 

Norway: Norges bank has increased its key rates from 0.75% to 1%.

  • The Bank mentioned that the economy is stronger than expected and interest rates could rise further in H2-19.

 

Turkey: Consumer confidence (March): 59.4 (prior: 57.8)

  • After regular fall over the past 3 months, confidence has rebounded, driven by financial conditions and higher expectations on the economy.
  • Nevertheless, the index remains close to historical low levels.
mercredi 20 mars
UK: inflation trend has stabilized

UK: CPI (Feb.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.8%)

  • Prices of food, household goods and clothes have rebounded the past month, and other sectors have shown flat or modest rises after the decline seen in Jan.
  • Inflation trend has stabilized at 1.9% y/y after 1.8% y/y the past month; core inflation was stable at 1.8% y/y.

 

UK: PPI Input prices (Feb.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.1%)

  • Refined oil prices have mainly driven the monthly rise. Trend in PPI has rebounded from 2.6% y/y to 3.7% y/y.

 

UK: PPI Output prices (Feb.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Prices have shown limited rise, except in a few sectors; yearly trend has barely changed from 2.1% y/y to 2.2%.

 

Germany: PPI (Feb.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Prices of energy and of intermediate goods were down by 0.1% m/m; other prices have shown a limited rise.
  • Yearly trend remained unchanged at % 2.6 y/y.

 

Poland: Industrial production (Feb.): -1.5% m/m vs -3.5% expected (prior: 7.4%)

  • The monthly fall was mainly driven by lower production in electricity and gas (-11% m/m).Trend in production has improved from 6.1% y/y to 6.9% y/y.

 

Poland: PPI (Feb.): 0.5%m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Prices of mining and energy have sharply rebounded (3.5% m/m); trend has accelerated from 2.2% y/y  to 2.9% y/y.

 

Russia: Real wages (Feb.): 0.7% y/y vs 0% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 0.2%)

  • Real wages have continued to slowdown.

 

Russia: Retail sales (Feb.): 2% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.6%)

  • Trend in non-food sales has slightly improved.

 

Russia: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 4.9% as expected (prior: 4.9%)

  • Unemployed has declined further over the month.
mardi 19 mars
German investor confidence improves again

US: Factory orders (Jan.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • The headline is lower than expected but growth in core capital goods orders was revised slightly up in December.

 

Germany: Zew (March): -3.6 vs -11.0 expected (prior: -13.4)

  • Current situation: 11.1 vs 13.0 expected (prior: 15.0)
  • Investor confidence improved for the fifth consecutive month as global risks subsided.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Jan.): 3.4% y/y vs 3.2% expected (prior: 3.5% revised from 3.4%)

  • This adds to evidence that the UK job market remains solid.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jan.): 3.9% vs 4.0% expected (prior: 4.0%)

  • Jobless claims change (Feb.): +27k after +15.7k in January
  • A bit ironically, UK unemployment rate falls to lowest since 1975.
lundi 18 mars
US: improving sales prospects in housing

US: NAHB housing market index (March): 62 vs 63 expected (prior: 62)

  • Sentiment index stayed stable; prospects on sales have improved and seemed to progressively recover.
  • Some easing in interest rates has relatively improved some indicators, but the situation remains globally mixed in the sector.

 

Poland: Current account (Jan.): 2316Mio EUR vs 1588Mio expected (prior: -1400Mio)

  • Trade balanced has shown a mild surplus, thanks to a a larger rebound in exports.

 

Poland: Core inflation (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Inflation was up by 1% y/y after 0.8% y/y the prior month.

 

Russia: Industrial production (Feb.): 4.1% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.1%)

  • Production has rebounded thanks to the manufacturing sector (6.6% m/m; 4.6% y/y). Other sectors remained volatile and the trend remains fragile.
Macro economic

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To help you navigate through the economic news, here is a summary of last week’s main events and what to look out for next week.
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Spotlight - Having spent the first two months of 2019 travelling to see clients across Asia, the Middle East and Europe concern among clients remains and is surprisingly consistent across regions of the world despite one of the strongest rallies in global equities to start a year in the past 30 years. We address the three most asked questions.