Market insight

US: Initial jobless claims (Oct 14): 222k vs 240k expected (prior: 243k)

• Continuing claims: 1888k vs 1890k expected (prior: 1904k revised from 1889k)
• As expected, claims have fallen back to pre-hurricane levels as activity in the affected areas returns to normal.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Oct): 27.9 vs 22 expected (prior: 23.8)

• The index rebounded but the composition of the report was more mixed, which a sharp increase in the employment component but decreases in both the new orders and shipments subindices.

UK: Retail sales (Sep): -0.8% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)

• Year on year, the quantity bought in the retail sector increase by 1.2%, with non-food (households goods, clothing stores) and non-store retailing all providing growth.
• Store prices continue to increase across all store types and are at their highest y/y price growth since March 2012 at 3.3%.
• Online sales values rose by 14% y/y, accounting for approximately 17% of all retail spending.

US: Housing starts (Sept.): 1127k vs 1175k expected (prior: 1183k revised from 1180k)

• Building permits: 1215k vs 1245k expected (prior: 1272k revised from 1300k)
• Softer than expected but nearly all of the weakness originated in the South region affected by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 4.3% as expected (prior: 4.3%)

• Jobless claims change (Sept.): +1.7k after -2.8k expected (prior: -0.2k)
• Unemployment rate remained stable at a multi-decade low in August.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 2.2% y/y vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.2% revised from 2.1%)

• Despite low unemployment, wage growth remained subdued and, with CPI increasing to 2.9% y/y in August, real wage growth was negative for the fifth consecutive month.

US: Industrial production (Sep): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.9%)

• Manufacturing production rebounded a modest 0.1% m/mm, while utilities and mining rose by 1.5% m/m and 0.4% m/m respectively.
• The rebound should probably continue over the next months.

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct): 68 vs 64 expected (prior: 64)

• The housing market index rebounded likely reflecting waning hurricane-related disruptions in the South region.

Germany: Zew (Oct): 87 vs 88.5 expected (prior: 87.9)

• Expectations: 17.6 vs 20 expected (prior: 17)
• The figure on german investor sentiment suggests that neither the stronger euro nor ECB QE tapering are expected to have significant adverse implications for the German economy.

Eurozone: CPI (Sep): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• On a y/y basis: 1.5% as expected (prior: 1.5%)
• Services prices declined by 1.1% m/m, while energy prices rose by 1% m/m.

UK: CPI (Sep): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• On a y/y basis: 3% as expected (prior: 2.9%)
• CPI core y/y: 2.7% as expected (prior: 2.7%)
• The rise was driven by food and transport prices. Core inflation was flat at 2.7%, the highest since Dec 2011.
• The pressures from the currency on inflation are likely to peak in the coming months.

UK: PPI Output prices (Sep): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• On a y/y basis: 3.3% as expected (prior: 3.4%)

US: Empire manufacturing (Oct.): 30.2 vs 20.4 expected (prior: 24.4)

• The headline index matches the highest level since September 2014.
• Perhaps helped by a weaker dollar, manufacturing activity appears to be booming in the New York area at the beginning of the Q4.

Russia: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.9% y/y vs 1.5% expected (prior: 1.5%)

• IP was up 1% m/m (after +2% in August), weighed down by the mining sector (-3.5% m/m).