Daily Macro Digest

mercredi 23 août
Flash PMI sentiment: Eurozone manufacturing and US services on the rise

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 52.5 vs 53.5 expected (prior: 53.3)

  • Flash estimate has weakened, but it remains at a good level (in line with a 2% growth story).


US: Markit Services PMI (Aug.): 56.9 vs 55 expected (prior: 54.7)

  • The rebound in flash PMI services has more than compensated the fall in manufacturing, so that the composite flash PMI index stays on a rising trend, which is positive for growth outlook.


US: New home sales (Jul.): 571k vs 610k expected (prior: 630k revised from 610k)

  • Sales have decreased in all districts, except one. Prices remain on an upward trend (median at 6.3% y/y) and could partly explain the volatility in sales.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Aug.): 57.4 vs 56.3 expected (prior: 56.6)

  • Surprisingly, flash confidence has increased further in the manufacturing sector, supported by improving opinions in France and in Germany.
  • Improving sentiment on output and new orders has driven the index up; interestingly, prices paid point towards existing inflation pressures.
  • A still strong growth should remain in place in Q3 in the Eurozone.


Eurozone: PMI Services (Aug.): 54.9 vs 55.4 expected (prior: 55.4)

  • Contrary to expectations, sentiment has weakened in France and it has slightly increased in Germany.


Norway: Unemployment rate (June): 4.3% as expected (prior: 4.3%)

  • Stable trend in employment.


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Aug.): -1.5 vs -1.8 expected (prior: -1.7)

  • Contrary to consensus expectations, flash consumer sentiment has improved further (no detail available).
mardi 22 août
Stable Richmond Fed index, slighly lower German investor confidence

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Aug.): 14 vs 10 expected (prior: 14)

  • Headline index and new orders both stable from July at relatively high levels, signaling still healthy momentum in the manufacturing sector.


US: House price Index MoM (FFHA) (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

  • House prices rose by 6.6% y/y in Q2.


Germany: Zew (Aug.): 10.0 vs 15.0 expected (prior: 17.5)

  • Current situation: 86.7 vs 85.2 expected (prior: 86.4)
  • German investors' confidence fell for a third consecutive month (to the lowest level since October), probably on the back of the stronger EUR and the widening diesel scandal.


vendredi 18 août
US consumer sentiment rebounded strongly in August

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug P): 97.6 vs 94 expected (prior: 93.4)

  • Current conditions: 111 vs 112.9 expected (prior: 113.4)
  • Expectations: 89 vs 81.5 expected (prior: 80.5)
  • This measure of consumer confidence has strongly rebounded and the expectations index suggests consumption growth will remain strong over the rest of this year.


Germany: PPI (Jul): 0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0%)

  • On a y/y basis: 2.3% vs 2.2% expected (prior: 2.4%)
  • Basic goods prices were unchanged, while capital goods prices and durable goods prices rose by 0.2% m/m and 0.1% m/m respectively.


Poland: Retail sales (Jul): 0.6% m/m vs 1.4% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • On a y/y basis: 7.1% y/y vs 7.4% expected (prior: 5.8%)
jeudi 17 août
US: mixed picture in industrial activity

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 12): 232k vs 240k expected (prior: 244k)

  • Continuing claims: 1953 k after 1956 k past week.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (Aug.): 18.9 vs 18 expected (prior: 19.5)

  • Sentiment has eased on current situation, but it has increased for future economic situation.
  • Inventories have decreased on the short run, leading to lower confidence index, but sentiment on new orders and shipments have regained for both current and future situation.


US: Industrial production (July): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Picture was mixed across sectors; a large fall in auto production but a rebound in utility.  Within sub-sectors, picture was also mixed and volatile. Production of autos could rebound next month (seasonal retooling in auto plans), but rising inventories was a concern in past months.
  • Industrial production was up by 2.2% y/y and manufacturing up by 1.2%y/y; data confirmed modest growth in the supply side sector.


France: Unemployment rate (Q2-17): 9.5% as expected (prior: 9.6%)

  • Unemployed has decreased by 20 k over the quarter, and full-time permanent contracts have increased.
  • Labor market is turning more supportive in France and Italy for consumption.


UK: Retail sales (July): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.6%)

  • Sales of food and household goods were strong, while sales contracted in other sectors; past month figures were also revised down.
  • Downward pressures on household purchasing power dampens outlook on consumption.


Eurozone: CPI (July): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

  • Final data confirmed preliminary data; energy was still a drag on prices, but core inflation was weak too.
  • On a yearly basis, inflation has stabilized at 1.3% y/y and core inflation was a bit firmer at 1.2% y/y after 1.1% y/y.
  • Low inflation should lead the ECB to probably revise down its forecasts during next September meeting.
mercredi 16 août
US housing starts lower than expected, resilient UK job market

US: Housing starts (Jul): 1155k vs 1220k expected (prior: 1213k revised from 1215k)

  • On a m/m basis: -4.8% vs 0.4% expected (prior: 8.3% revised from 7.4%)
  • Building permits: 1223k vs 1250k expected (prior: 1275k revised from 1254k); On a m/m basis: -4.1% vs -2% expected (prior: 9.2% revised from 7.4%).
  • July starts were down modestly for the single family sector (-0.5% m/m), but were down a significant 15.3% m/m for the multifamily sector.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jun): 4.4% vs 4.5% expected (prior: 4.5%)

  • Jobless claims change (July): -4.2k (prior: 3.5k revised from 5.9k)
  • The job market continued to show resilience as the unemployment rate declined further, by 0.1% to 4.4%. This is a 42-year low.
  • The drop in June was driven by the younger category more than offsetting a light monthly increase in the elder category.
  • Claimant count change for the month of July declined by 4.2k suggesting that unemployment could continue to fall in the summer.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Jun): 2.1% y/y vs 1.8% expected (prior: 1.9% revised from 1.8%)

  • Ex bonus:  2.1% vs 2% expected (prior: 2%)
  • Total pay growth rose from 1.9% to 2.1% due to base effects as in level terms it was just a £1 jump.


Eurozone: GDP (Q2 P): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • On a y/y basis: 2.2% vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.1%)
  • Eurozone's growth was supported by continued growth in Germany and Spain.


Italy: GDP (Q2 P): 0.4% q/q as expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1.5% vs 1.4% expected (prior: 1.2%)

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