Market insight

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (Aug.): 14 vs 10 expected (prior: 14)

• Headline index and new orders both stable from July at relatively high levels, signaling still healthy momentum in the manufacturing sector.

US: House price Index MoM (FFHA) (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)

• House prices rose by 6.6% y/y in Q2.

Germany: Zew (Aug.): 10.0 vs 15.0 expected (prior: 17.5)

• Current situation: 86.7 vs 85.2 expected (prior: 86.4)
• German investors' confidence fell for a third consecutive month (to the lowest level since October), probably on the back of the stronger EUR and the widening diesel scandal.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug P): 97.6 vs 94 expected (prior: 93.4)

• Current conditions: 111 vs 112.9 expected (prior: 113.4)
• Expectations: 89 vs 81.5 expected (prior: 80.5)
• This measure of consumer confidence has strongly rebounded and the expectations index suggests consumption growth will remain strong over the rest of this year.

Germany: PPI (Jul): 0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0%)

• On a y/y basis: 2.3% vs 2.2% expected (prior: 2.4%)
• Basic goods prices were unchanged, while capital goods prices and durable goods prices rose by 0.2% m/m and 0.1% m/m respectively.

Poland: Retail sales (Jul): 0.6% m/m vs 1.4% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• On a y/y basis: 7.1% y/y vs 7.4% expected (prior: 5.8%)

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 12): 232k vs 240k expected (prior: 244k)

• Continuing claims: 1953 k after 1956 k past week.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Aug.): 18.9 vs 18 expected (prior: 19.5)

• Sentiment has eased on current situation, but it has increased for future economic situation.
• Inventories have decreased on the short run, leading to lower confidence index, but sentiment on new orders and shipments have regained for both current and future situation.

US: Industrial production (July): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Picture was mixed across sectors; a large fall in auto production but a rebound in utility.  Within sub-sectors, picture was also mixed and volatile. Production of autos could rebound next month (seasonal retooling in auto plans), but rising inventories was a concern in past months.
• Industrial production was up by 2.2% y/y and manufacturing up by 1.2%y/y; data confirmed modest growth in the supply side sector.

France: Unemployment rate (Q2-17): 9.5% as expected (prior: 9.6%)

• Unemployed has decreased by 20 k over the quarter, and full-time permanent contracts have increased.
• Labor market is turning more supportive in France and Italy for consumption.

UK: Retail sales (July): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.6%)

• Sales of food and household goods were strong, while sales contracted in other sectors; past month figures were also revised down.
• Downward pressures on household purchasing power dampens outlook on consumption.

Eurozone: CPI (July): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Final data confirmed preliminary data; energy was still a drag on prices, but core inflation was weak too.
• On a yearly basis, inflation has stabilized at 1.3% y/y and core inflation was a bit firmer at 1.2% y/y after 1.1% y/y.
• Low inflation should lead the ECB to probably revise down its forecasts during next September meeting.

US: Housing starts (Jul): 1155k vs 1220k expected (prior: 1213k revised from 1215k)

• On a m/m basis: -4.8% vs 0.4% expected (prior: 8.3% revised from 7.4%)
• Building permits: 1223k vs 1250k expected (prior: 1275k revised from 1254k); On a m/m basis: -4.1% vs -2% expected (prior: 9.2% revised from 7.4%).
• July starts were down modestly for the single family sector (-0.5% m/m), but were down a significant 15.3% m/m for the multifamily sector.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jun): 4.4% vs 4.5% expected (prior: 4.5%)

• Jobless claims change (July): -4.2k (prior: 3.5k revised from 5.9k)
• The job market continued to show resilience as the unemployment rate declined further, by 0.1% to 4.4%. This is a 42-year low.
• The drop in June was driven by the younger category more than offsetting a light monthly increase in the elder category.
• Claimant count change for the month of July declined by 4.2k suggesting that unemployment could continue to fall in the summer.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Jun): 2.1% y/y vs 1.8% expected (prior: 1.9% revised from 1.8%)

• Ex bonus:  2.1% vs 2% expected (prior: 2%)
• Total pay growth rose from 1.9% to 2.1% due to base effects as in level terms it was just a £1 jump.

Eurozone: GDP (Q2 P): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• On a y/y basis: 2.2% vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.1%)
• Eurozone's growth was supported by continued growth in Germany and Spain.

Italy: GDP (Q2 P): 0.4% q/q as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• On a y/y basis: 1.5% vs 1.4% expected (prior: 1.2%)