US: Durable goods orders (Feb.): 1.2% m/m vs -0.9% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.2%)
- Defense orders were up by 25.7% m/m and drove total orders up; on the opposite, orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were down by 0.8% m/m after 1% m/m the prior month.
- Preliminary data were still relatively positive, but shutdown in several sectors (airlines, autos, Boeing…) will impact negatively the supply chain and related orders from the US and foreign countries too.
US: House price Index MoM (FHFA) (Jan.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.6%)
- Prices remained on positive trend at the beginning of the year, being up by 5.2% y/y. Shutdown and COVID may curb this trend despite low interest rates.
Germany: IFO (March): 86.1 vs 87.7 expected (prior: 96)
- Final data have fallen more than in the first estimates. The index is now entering in the range seen in 2008-2009 (90-80).
- Current assessment has fallen, but expectations have plunged dramatically: the index has abruptly fallen close to the 2008 levels (79.2 lowest point).
- By sector, sentiment has also fallen further than initial estimates, particularly in manufacturing and trade sectors; sentiment in construction remained positive.
UK: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)
- After a large fall in several sectors the prior month, monthly prices have rebounded in many sectors, except in energy: clothes, household goods and leisure services and tourism. This should reverse in the coming month, with lockdown coming on.
- Yearly changes have just moderated from 1.8% y/y the prior month to 1.7% y/y.
UK: PPI Input prices (Feb.): -1.2% m/m vs -2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.9%)
- Prices of materials have decreased by 1.6% m/m, while other manufacturing prices were up by 0.7% m/m.
- Yearly trend has turned back to negative territory: -0.5% y/y after 1.6% y/y the prior month.
UK: PPI Output prices (Feb.): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)
- Energy prices were down by 3.5% m/m and manufacturing prices were down by 0.3% m/m; yearly trend has slowed down from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.4% y/y.
Norway: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 3.8% vs 3.9% expected (prior: 3.9%)
- Trend in labor remained quite stable over the month.
Brazil: CPI (March): 0.02% m/m vs 0.06% expected (prior: 0.22%)
- Except health care, prices for transport-energy, clothes and household goods were down over the month. Yearly trend (IPCA index) has declined from 4.21% y/y the prior month to 3.67% y/y.
Brazil: Current account (Feb.): -3904 M$ vs -3400 M$ expected (prior: -11879 M$)
- Foreign direct investment: 5996 M after 5618 M past month.
Turkey: Industrial confidence (March): 98.6 (prior: 106.7)
- Sentiment has decreased on production, orders and exports, while inventories were on the rise,
- The index has fallen rapidly as seen in 2018, but it remained relatively high.