Market insight

US: Empire manufacturing (Nov.): 23.3 vs 20 expected (prior: 21.1)

• Confidence has strongly rebounded on present and future conditions and particularly on future capex but also on prices paid.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Nov.): 12.9 vs 20 expected (prior: 22.2)

• The views have decreased on both current and future conditions. Prices paid were on the rise; on future conditions the outlook on capex has increased.

US: Retail sales (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

• Core sales (ex food, autos and building materials) were up by 0.3% m/m as seen in the prior month.
• Consumption has been boosted by higher gasoline and by a rebound in building materials post hurricanes. Past month data were revised lower.
• These data are in line with GDP growth being up by 3% q/q in Q4, supported by a still dynamic consumption.

US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 10): 216k vs 213k expected (prior: 214k)

• Continuing claims: 1676 k after 1630 k. The rise was partly due to hurricanes.

US: Import price index (Oct.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.5%)

• Prices were up by 3.5% y/y; prices ex energy were up by 0.2% m/m.
• Import prices of food and oil have rebounded in Oct.; export prices were up by 0.4% m/m, driven by a rebound in industrial goods (1.4% m/m).

US: Business inventories (Sept.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Sales were up by 0.4% m/m; inventory-to-sales ratio stayed stable.

UK: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.8%)

• Except food, sales have decreased for all items, after two positive months for household goods. Sales have moderated on a yearly basis from 3.3% y/y to 2.2%y/y.
• Potential major political crisis may weigh on confidence and consumption.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Oct.): 6% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.5%)

• Trend in employment remained positive with a more rapid fall in unemployment ratio than expected.

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 11.1% vs 11.2% expected (prior: 10.8%)

• Unemployed has increased from the prior month.

• US: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
• The monthly rise was mainly due to energy prices (up by 2.4% m/m), while core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m. Prices of computers have fallen while rents, and also prices of services, remained on a steady 0.3% m/m rise.
• Headline inflation has slightly increased from 2.3% y/y to 2.5% y/y and core inflation has moderated from 2.2% y/y to 2.1% y/y. Inflation could remain in a 2%-2.5% range in the coming months, due to volatile energy prices. On the short run, the Fed should continue to hike its key rates.

• UK: CPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)
• Except housing and education, prices have decreased on a monthly basis in all sectors. Core inflation was flat and up by 1.9% y/y. Headline inflation was stable on a yearly trend at 2.4% y/y.
• Central bank concerns could remain in place due to still high level of PPI and also due to lower slack in labour and rising in wage growth.

• UK: PPI Input prices (Oct.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.3%)
• Oil prices have moderated but prices of materials were up by 0.8% m/m; prices remained high on a yearly basis (10% y/y after 10.5% y/y the prior month), due to oil prices (12% y/y) and to prices of materials (9.7% y/y).

• UK: PPI Output prices (Oct.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)
• Oil prices were up by 2% m/m and other sectors also up by 0.3% m/m; prices remained high on a yearly basis (3.3% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month).

• Sweden: CPI (Oct.): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.5%)
• Prices of food and communication have fallen over the month; core inflation has declined by 0.1% m/m; headline inflation was stable at 2.3% y/y and core inflation has slightly eased from 1.6% y/y to 1.5% y/y.

• Eurozone: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1%)
• Production has fallen mainly due to energy and non-durable consumer goods.
• Trend in production has eased further from 1.1% y/y to 0.9% y/y.

• Germany: GDP (Q3-18): -0.2% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)
• GDP has contracted more than expected due to lower export and consumption in preliminary data. The car industry could also be partly responsible of this fall, but this sector could rebound in the coming months. GDP could also rebound by 0.3%q/q/ 0.4%qq/ in Q4, but German growth is expected to settle below 2% y/y on average in 2018 and 2019.

• Poland: GDP (Q3-18): 1.7% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1%)
• GDP growth was up by 5.1% y/y.

• Poland: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m (prior: 0.2%)
• The monthly rebound came from a sharp rise in clothes; yearly trend has moderated from 1.9% y/y to 1.8% y/y.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Oct.): 107.4 vs 408 expected (prior: 107.9)

• Views have moderated on different items (plan to hire, higher sales) but prospect for capex was stable, and the global index remained quite high.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Oct.): 4.1% vs 4% expected (prior: 4%)

• Claimant count: 2.7% after 2.6%; jobless claims: 20.2 k after 23.2 k the prior month, revised from 18.5 k.
• The outlook has slightly moderated on job creations but the unemployment rate remained low.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Sept.): 3% y/y as expected (prior: 2.8% revised from 2.7%)

• Wages stayed on a rising trend; the rise was broad-based across sectors.
• This will maintain some pressure on the BoE.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Oct.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices were up by 2.3% y/y, after 2.6% y/y the prior month. Oil prices remained the major contributor to the monthly and the yearly rise.

Germany: CPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Inflation has been confirmed up by 0.1% m/m and 2.4% y/y.
• Core inflation is on a rising trend: 1.7% y/y after 1.4% y/y on the prior month (based on national index).

Germany: Zew (Nov.): -24.1 vs -26 expected (prior: -24.7)

• Sentiment among financial community stayed negative but it has deteriorated less than expected on both current situation and expectations.

Brazil: Retail sales (Sept.): -1.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 2% revised from 1.3%)

• After the rebound past month, sales have declined in all sectors, except furniture and electronics.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov. Prel.): 98.3 vs 98.0 expected (prior: 98.6)

• Current conditions: 113.2 vs 114.9 expected (prior: 113.1)
• Expectations: 88.7 vs 87.2 expected (prior: 113.1)
• This modest decline (from close-to-record levels) suggests that consumers largely shrugged off the recent volatility in equity markets (the cut-off date for the survey was the 7th November) and that consumer spending should remain strong in the coming months.

US: PPI (Oct.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• PPI y/y: 2.9% vs 2.5% expected (prior: 2.6%)
• The 0.6% m/m jump in the headline index largely reflects a 2.7% m/m rise in energy, following the rise in gasoline and natural gas prices last month. The recent slump in crude oil prices suggests that this move will soon be reversed.
• Gains in core PPI inflation was again mostly driven by the volatile components of services trade, transportation and warehousing.
• There is little sign that the 10% tariffs on USD 200bn of Chinese goods, imposed in late September, have had any significant impact on domestic prices. Moreover, upward price pressures from the stronger economy and tariffs are being countered by lower commodity prices and stronger dollar.

France: Industrial production (Sept.): -1.8% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.3%)

• IP y/y: -1.1% vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.5% revised from 1.6%)
• Manufacturing production: -2.1% m/m vs -0.2% (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.6%); -1.0% y/y vs 1.8% expected (prior: 1.8%)
• Sharp decline in September but this follows three consecutive months of growth.
• This disappointing report together with the downtrend in manucturing business confidence point to downside risks for Q4.

UK: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.0% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from 0.2%)

• IP y/y: 0.0% vs 0.4% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 1.3%)
• Industrial production was flat for the second consecutive month. Manufacturing managed to grow by 0.2% m/m notably thanks to the auto sector.

UK: GDP (Q3 Prel.): 0.6% q/q as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• GDP y/y: 1.5% as expected (prior: 1.2%)
• Solid GDP growth in Q3 but much of the strength was in July. Activity in August and September was weaker, which could continue based on the first data for October.
• Q3 GDP growth was driven by private consumption and government spending while business investment contracted for the third straight quarter.