US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (May): 56.6 vs 56.5 expected (prior: 56.5)
- Sentiment on employment has increased, while new orders have declined from very high level.
US: Markit Services PMI (May): 55.7 vs 55 expected (prior: 54.6)
- Sentiment has increased more than expected in services from past month.
- Leading indicators point in favor of a still sustained activity in the business sectors in Q2.
US: New home sales (Apr.): 662k vs 680k expected (prior: 672k revised from 694k)
- Small decline in sales, but a still high level in absolute terms; mean prices of home sold were rising rapidly (11.3% y/y).
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (May): 55.5 vs 56.1 expected (prior: 56.2)
- Sentiment has weakened further contrary to expectations; in flash estimate, French index has slightly increased from past month, while the index has decreased in Germany.
- Final index would also probably reflect uncertainties in Italy, adding further downside risks.
Eurozone: PMI Services (May): 53.9 vs 54.7 expected (prior: 54.7)
- Flash estimate has decreased for both French and German indices, being well below expectations.
- Leading indicators point to continued moderate growth rather than in favor of a rebound.
France: Unemployment rate (Q1-18): 8.9% vs 8.5% expected (prior: 8.6%)
- Mainland unemployment rate has increased after some easing in past months;
- Unemployed has increased by 83 k over the quarter under review.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (May): 0.2 vs 0.5 expected (prior: 0.3 revised from 0.4)
- Contrary to expectations, flash consumer confidence has eased after the small rebound seen in April.
- Rising oil prices and political uncertainties are probably the main sources of concerns for households.
UK: PPI Input prices (Apr.): 0.4% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from -0.1%)
- Input prices were on a rising trend: 5.3% y/y after 4.4% y/y the prior month. The rise looks mainly due to energy and food prices, but this could fuel further pressures on margins or on CPI.
UK: PPI Output prices (Apr.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)
- Trend remains stable at 2.3% y/y. Core prices stayed moderate (0.1% m/m; 2.4% y/y).
UK: CPI (Apr.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Trend has moderated from 2.5% y/y to 2.4% y/y; core inflation has moderated from 2.3% y/y to 2.1% y/y.
- Monthly changes in food, alcohol, energy and transports were sustained over the month, but were moderate in other sectors.
- Inflation trend should continue to evolve closer to central bank target, but energy and currency changes could fuel upside risks.
Turkey: Consumer confidence (May): 69.9 (prior: 71.9)
- Sentiment has weakened, due to rising concerns on economic situation, inflation and lower willingness to buy big items.
