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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

jeudi 15 avril
US: declining jobless claims and surging retail sales

US: Initial jobless claims (April 10): 576k vs 700k expected (prior: 769k revised from 744k)

  • Continuing claims: 3731 k after 327 k the prior week.


US: NY Empire manufacturing (April): 26.3 vs 20 expected (prior: 17.4)

  • Sentiment has strongly rebounded from the prior month on both current situation and expectations.
  • A broad-based improvement on components, particularly on new orders; prices paid remained on the rise as well as constraints on delivery due to disruption.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (April): 50.2 vs 41.5 expected (prior: 44.5 revised from 51.2)

  • The business sentiment has rebounded after downwards revision to past month data.
  • Current and 6-month views have increased in parallel; on the current situation, sentiment was cautious on new orders and prices paid, but it has improved on shipments and employment.
  • The 6-month index has improved on all major sub-components.


US: Retail sales (March): 9.8% m/m vs 5.8% expected (prior: -2.7% revised from -3%)

  • Sales have strongly rebounded after constraints on Feb. sales due to bad weather conditions and have benefited in March for renewed direct support to households.
  • All sectors have benefited from the rebound over the month; the most favored sectors were sport, clothes, autos and building materials. Core sales (ex-autos, building materials, food and energy) were up by 6.9% m/m after -3.4% m/m the prior month.
  • The quarter has finished on strong consumption data which should lead to a very strong Q1 GDP growth.


US: Industrial production (March): 1.4% m/m vs 2.5% expected (prior: -2.6% revised from -2.2%)

  • Production has rebounded after the prior month contraction, but it remained below expectations.
  • The activity has rebounded in manufacturing (2.7% m/m) thanks to autos and machinery, but it has weakened for the utility sector.


US: Business inventories (Feb.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

  • Inventories have declined for autos but increased in other sectors; sales were down by 1.9% m/m after 4.5% m/m the prior month.
  • The inventory-to-sales ratio has increased from 1.27 the prior month to 1.30.


US: NAHB housing market index (April): 83 as expected (prior: 82)

  • Sentiment has increased from the prior month due to improving current sales and firmer demand; sentiment remained cautious on future sales.


France: CPI (March): 0.7% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

  • Prices have rebounded as expected, due to higher energy prices and clothes over the month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 0.8% y/y the prior month to 1.4% y/y.


Germany: CPI (March): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Final prices have continued to increase as expected; the monthly rise was due to prices of clothes, energy and transport.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated from 1.6% y/y the prior month to 2% y/y.


Italy: CPI (March): 1.8% m/m (prior: -0.2%)

  • Prices have strongly rebounded over the month due to energy, household goods and prices of clothes.
  • The yearly trend has nevertheless eased from 1% y/y the prior month to 0.6% y/y (prices of clothes remained negative in negative territory despite the monthly rebound).


Poland: CPI (March): 1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Prices have strongly rebounded from the prior month due to higher prices of energy, transport, food and clothes.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated from 2.4% y/y the prior month to 3.2% y/y.
mercredi 14 avril
Weak eurozone industrial production; rising prices in US trade

US: Import price index (March): 1.2% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 1.3%)

  • Imports price have rebounded further due to higher energy prices but also higher industrial supply prices.
  • In parallel, export prices were up by 2.1% m/m after 1.6% m/m. In a rising prices environment, export prices are running faster than import prices which should be positive for corporates involved in the trade sector.
  • Yearly trend has strongly accelerated for prices in trade: import prices from 3.1% y/y the prior month to 6.9% y/y and exports from 5.3% y/y to 9.1% y/y.


Eurozone: Industrial production (Feb.): -1% m/m vs -1.3% expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • Production has contracted in all sectors over the month, including energy.
  • The auto sector was a major headwind for France and Germany in the month under review. Production remained below pre-COVID levels in aggregate, and disparities have increased across countries.


Spain: CPI (March): 1.9% m/m as expected (prior: -0.6%)

  • The large monthly rebound was mainly driven by rising prices of clothes (23.7% m/m), followed by rises in housing and in energy-transport prices.
  • The yearly trend has recovered from -0.1% y/y the prior month to 1.2% y/y.


Sweden: CPI (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Prices of food, clothes and energy-transport have accelerated over the prior month; core inflation was up by 0.3%m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated from 1.5% y/y the prior month to 1.9% y/y, and from 1.2% y/y to 1.4% y/y for core inflation.
mardi 13 avril
US inflation on the rise due to energy prices

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (March): 98.2 vs 98.5 expected (prior: 95.8)

  • Business sentiment has rebounded further but remained below expectations.
  • Sentiment has improved on future economy, sales and employment; the sentiment was cautious on capex, inventories and earnings.
  • Confidence is progressively rebuilding after large swings seen in 2020 with a sharp rebound in Q3 followed by a decline in Q4.


US: CPI (March): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • The rebound in prices were mainly due to energy costs (5% m/m) and transports (2.7% m/m); services were up by 0.4% m/m due to lodging prices; core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated from 1.7% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y and core inflation from 1.3% y/y to 1.6% y/y.
  • This rebound was widely expected and is mainly due to base effects on energy prices (up by 22% y/y); next month another step in the rebound in prices is also expected and the yearly trend should reach more than 3% y/y with same base effects.
  • More time will be needed to validate the “transitory” scenario mentioned by the Fed regarding inflation, as more pent up demand could be seen in Q3 maintaining inflation close or above 2% after the energy base effect in Q2.


UK: BRC retail sales (March): 20.3% y/y vs 12% expected (prior: 9.5%)

  • Non-food sales have strongly rebounded ahead of the gradual reopening of the economy; as several shops remained closed, the survey estimated the re-calibrated annual figure including wider sample of shops to be closer to 8.4% y/y.


UK: Industrial production (Feb.): 1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -1.8% revised from -1.5%)

  • A strong rebound in the manufacturing production (1.3% m/m); within manufacturing, the rebound was driven by a surge in production of durable and equipment goods over the month; on the opposite, production has contracted in energy, mining and non-durable goods sectors.
  • Separately, the monthly proxy for GDP was up by 0.4% m/m (vs 0.5% m/m expected) after -2.2% m/m the prior month. This rebound was fueled by services and the wholesale-retail sectors.


Sweden: Unemployment rate (March): 4% (prior: 4.4%)

  • A strong decline in unemployment ratio over the month.


Germany: Wholesale price (March): 1.7% m/m (prior: 1.4%)

  • Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.3% y/y the prior month to 4.4% y/y.


Italy: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 1.1% revised from 1%)

  • Activity in electricity and mining has contracted over the month, while production in manufacturing was up by 0.4% m/m.
  • Within manufacturing, production of textiles and pharma has rebounded while production of autos declined. On main sectors, only production of non-durable goods was up over the month, reflecting the impact of the lockdown.


Germany: Zew (April): 70.7 vs 79 expected (prior: 76.6)

  • Expectations have declined from high level on the prior month in the financial business sentiment Zew index. Sentiment on current situation has improved from the prior month, being less negative.
  • By sector, sentiment has increased from the prior month for autos, chemical and machinery sectors, while it particularly declined in steel, services, retail and construction sectors.
  • The weakening sentiment probably reflects still uncertainties about the extension of the lockdown and diverging views from Federal and local German States.


Poland: Current account (Feb.): 1619Mio EUR vs 1602Mio expected (prior: 3341Mio revised from 3258Mio)

  • Trade surplus has declined over the month as imports have sharply accelerated; net income has also declined further over the month.


Brazil: Retail sales (Feb.): 4.1% m/m vs 1.8% expected (prior: -2.2% revised from -2.1%)

  • A strong rebound from the prior month due to autos, clothes, furniture and food sales. Momentum in economy has improved past month, but renewed COVID cases refueled downside risks on domestic demand in the short run.


Turkey: Industrial production (Feb.): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1%)

  • Production has strongly rebounded in capital goods, while it has contracted in consumer, intermediate and energy sectors.
  • Within capital goods, the rebound was driven by IT and vehicles segments.
  • The yearly trend in total production has moderated from 11.3% y/y the prior month to 8.8% y/y.
lundi 12 avril
Eurozone retail sales improved in Feb., but lockdown weighed down on global consumption

Eurozone: Retail sales (Feb.): 3% m/m vs 1.7% expected (prior: -5.2% revised from -5.9%)

  • Sales have rebounded after large fall the prior month; the rebound was mainly driven by autos and non-food sectors.
  • Sales should remain highly volatile and globally weak until progressive reopening of economies and the end of the lockdown.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 13.4% vs 12.2% expected (prior: 12.7%)

  • The unemployed has increased from the prior month and the unemployment ratio has increased back to the levels seen by mid-2020.


Turkey: Current account (Feb.): -2.61bn USD vs -2.5bn expected (prior: -1.82bn revised from -1.87bn)

  • Trade deficit on goods and services has increased from the prior month.
vendredi 09 avril
US: higher PPI than expected; weak Feb. industrial production in France, Germany and Spain

US: PPI (March): 1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Producer prices have rebounded more than expected from the prior month; prices were driven up by energy and services (warehouse) over the month; outside energy, prices were also sustained for intermediate goods and transport. Core PPI were up by 0.6% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • The yearly trend has sharply accelerated from 2.8% y/y the prior month to 4.2% y/y, reflecting higher costs pressure.


US: Wholesale inventories (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.4%)

  • Inventories have increased slightly more than in first estimates from the prior month. Inventories have increased in all sectors, except for autos, while sales were down by 0.8% m/m (4.4% m the prior month).


Germany: Industrial production (Feb.): -1.6% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: -2% revised from -2.5%)

  • Production has contracted for the second month contrary to expectations; activity was down over the month in all sectors, except consumer goods up by a mere 0.2% m/m.
  • Bad weather conditions and shortage in components have impacted construction and the auto and equipment sectors, while restrictions remained active. A marked improvement should be seen in Q2, but Q1 GDP should contract significantly.


Germany: Trade Balance (Feb.): 18.1bn EUR vs 20.3bn expected (prior: 13.8bn revised from 14.3bn)

  • Current account surplus: EUR 18,8 bn after 17.6 bn the prior month.
  • Real exports: 0.3% m/m after 0.9% m/m the prior month; real imports: 2% m/m after -5.3% m/m the prior month.


France: Industrial production (Feb.): -4.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 3.2% revised from 3.3%)

  • Production was down over the month in all sectors, except refineries. The large decrease in production of auto and transport equipment was probably due to shortage of components and disruption in the supply chain.
  • These data argue in favor of another GDP contraction in Q1-21.


Spain: Industrial production (Feb.): 0% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.7%)

  • Production has contracted over the month for several sectors, except food, chemical and energy sectors.


Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (March): 3.3% vs 3.6% expected (prior: 3.4% revised from 3.6%)

  • Unemployed has declined over the month and jobs openings have strongly rebounded on progressive reopening of some sectors in the economy.


Norway: CPI (March): -0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • Lower food and housing prices versus rising prices in clothes and health sector. Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
  • The yearly trend has eased somewhat from 3.3% y/y the prior month to 3.1% y/y.


Norway: PPI incl. Oil (March): -0.2% m/m (prior: 5.4%)

  • Yearly trend: 18.4% y/y after 9.7% y/y prior month.


Brazil: CPI (March): 0.93% m/m vs 1.03% expected (prior: 0.86%)

  • Inflation remained on a sustained path; monthly rise was driven by energy-transport, household goods and housing.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated further from 5.2% y/y the prior month to 6.1% y/y, which opens the way to another probable rate hike.
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