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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

mardi 22 juin
US: declining existing home sales but rising Fed Richmond business confidence

US: Existing home sales (May): 5.8M vs 5.73M expected (prior: 5.85M)

  • Whiles sales of condos remained stable from the prior month, sales of single family houses have declined further, being in a downward trend since past Dec.; prices remained at absolute high levels and still have shown a 24.4% y/y rise for median prices and a 17.5% y/y for average prices.
  • Existing and pending home sales have cooled down over the past month, while prices remained on sustained momentum.


US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (June): 22 vs 18 expected (prior: 18)

  • The index has regained to its highest range after volatile and weak period in Q1.
  • The picture was mixed on both current and future situation in the details: new orders have improved on current situation but shipments and employment have weakened; on the 6-month views, the same mixed picture in the details, but interesting to note an improvement in capex, employment and in wages.


Poland: Retail sales (May): 8.2% m/m vs 6.4% expected (prior: -7.7%)

  • Highly volatile data over past months; purchases of clothes and household goods have rebounded ahead of auto sales.
  • Base effect remained strong, sales being up by 19.1% y/y after 25.7% y/y the prior month.


Italy: Industrial sales (April): 3.3% m/m (prior: 1.7%)

  • Domestic sales were strongly up over the month (4% m/m), and foreign sales were positive but on more moderate rebound. Sales were strong for investment and intermediate goods.


Sweden: Unemployment rate (May): 9.1% vs 8.8% expected (prior: 9.1%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased over the month, but the unemployment ratio remained stable.
lundi 21 juin
Mixed US activity indicator

US: Chicago Fed nat. Activity index: 0.29 vs 0.70 expected; prior month 0.24 revised to -0.09.

  • Gauge for activity has turned highly volatile past months; it has slightly rebounded over the month after downward revision on past month data.


Switzerland: M3 (May): 4.1% y/y vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.9%)

  • Monetary aggregates have shown a declining trend in yearly growth pace over the past months; M1 trend has slowed down from 7.3% y/y the prior month to 6.5% y/y and M2 from 5.3% y/y to 4.4% y/y.


Poland: PPI (May): 0.8%m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)

  • Prices remained sustained in mining (3.5% m/m) and also in manufacturing sector (0.7% m/m).
  • Yearly trend was up by 6.5% y/y after 5.5% y/y the prior month.


Poland: Industrial production (May): -0.8% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: -9.2%)

  • Activity has slightly contracted further after sharp correction the prior month; mining production was up by 1.5% m/m, but manufacturing production was down by 0.4% m/m after -9.4% m/m the prior month.
vendredi 18 juin
UK sales contracted in May after a strong rebound in April

UK: Retail sales (May): -1.4% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: 9.2%)

  • Sales have reversed after the strong rebound the prior month; all sectors were down over the month, except sales of household goods. Services were not included, and on-line sales remained stable (nominal terms) from the prior month.
  • Despite more volatile data ahead, strong rebound in growth is under course.


Germany: PPI (May): 1.5% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • Prices have accelerated further on rising energy (2.6% m/m), mining (2.9% m/m) and also manufacturing goods ex oil (0.9% m/m).
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 5.2% y/y the prior month to 7.2% y/y.
jeudi 17 juin
Lower US Philly Fed; rising inflation trend in the eurozone

US: Initial jobless claims (June 12): 412k vs 360k expected (prior: 375k revised from 376k)

  • Continuing claims: 3518 k after 3517 k the prior week.


US: Philadelphia Fed. (June): 30.7 vs 31 expected (prior: 31.5)

  • The index has eased from the prior month but remained on high level.
  • Details offered mixed picture on current situation: rising sentiment on employment, prices and shipments but declining new orders, and delivery time.
  • On the opposite, the 6-month view has increased to high level with broader improvement across components except lower inventories.


Switzerland: Trade balance (May): 4.95 Bn CHF (prior: 3.77Bn)

  • Real exports: 2.6% m/m after -0.3% m/m the prior month; real imports: -1.1% m/m after 1.3% m/m prior month.


Switzerland: SNB left unchanged its monetary policy

  • The SNB has a relative more constructive view on economy (3.5% GDP growth expected in 2021) and on inflation (upward revision: 0.4% y/y and 0.6% years after); risks remain and the SNB remains ready to intervene in FX as CHF is still "highly priced". SNB found vulnerabilities in the housing market.


Eurozone: CPI (May): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Inflation has been confirmed up by 0.3 m/m, a slower pace than the prior month; prices were up by 0.2% m/m in services and in other sectors, while energy prices were up by 0.8% m/m.
  • Yearly trend has increased from 1.6% y/y the prior month to 2% y/y, and core inflation from 0.7% y/y to 1% y/y. With reopening sectors, yearly trend should accelerate further in the coming months.
mercredi 16 juin
Weaker than expected US housing starts; China economic indicators below expectations

US: Housing starts (May): 1572k vs 1630k expected (prior: 1517k revised from 1569k)

  • Building permits: 1682 k (1730 k expected) from 1733 k the prior month.
  • Momentum has weakened on both housing starts and building permits over past months, due to rising prices and low inventories.
  • Data remained high in absolute terms, but more volatility could be seen in next months and data to move sideways after strong rebound.


UK: CPI (May): 0.6% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6%)

  • Prices remained on a sustained monthly path, driven by clothes, household goods, transport and leisure goods. Inflation picture results from the combination of base effects from energy and reopening sectors.
  • The yearly trend has accelerated further from 1.5% y/y the prior month to 2.1% y/y. The BoE should remain patient regarding transitory rise in inflation.


UK: PPI Input prices (May): 1.1% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 1.2%)

  • Prices remained sustained; while fuel prices were down over the month, raw material prices were up by 1.1% m/m.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 10% y/y the prior month to 10.7% y/y.


UK: PPI Output prices (May): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Energy prices and other sectors remained on sustained monthly path; core output prices were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.5% m/m the prior month.
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 4% y/y the prior month to 4.6% y/y.


China retail sales: 12.4% y/y vs expected 14.0% (prior: 17.7%)

  • In sequential terms, retail sales expanded by 0.81% m/m, up from 0.25% in April. All categories experienced positive growth, but areas related to services and soft consumption remained more resilient, including catering (26.6%) and online sales (24.7% y/y).
  • On the contrary, demand was most sluggish for automotive (6.3% y/y) and home appliances (3.1% y/y).
  • Going forward, we expect that domestic demand will recover to 15.0% y/y in 2021, reversing a contraction in 2020. A stabilization in the labour market will also prove supportive. The unemployment rate declined further to 5.0% y/y in May, down from 5.1% in April.


China industrial production: 8.8% y/y vs expected 9.2% (prior: 9.8%)

  • Despite the pace of increase missed expectations, industrial production expanded at a sequential pace of 0.52% m/m.
  • The growth in value added was led by industrial robots and integrated circuits (166.3% y/y), high-tech manufacturing (17.5% y/y) and electricity (11.0% y/y). This can be largely attributed to an increase in input costs, following a surge in the price of commodities and semiconductors. We expect that industrial production will stabilize around 9.0% y/y in 2021.


China fixed-asset investments: 15.4% YTD y/y vs expected 17.0% (prior: 19.9%)

  • Property investment declined to 18.3% y/y vs expected 19.5% (prior: 21.6%). In sequential terms, investments increased by 0.17% m/m, led by an increase in high-tech (25.6% y/y) and medical equipment (48.3%).
  • Better earnings and higher prices will help to fuel private sector capital expenditure, offsetting a more austere fiscal budget. FAI to stabilize around 7.0% y/y in 2021.
  • Chinese activity indicators declined in May, as the economy continued to stabilize from a record expansion in Q1-21. Despite this contraction was expected, all activity indicators missed forecasts, but the underlying data was more sanguine, pointing to a shy recovery in sequential terms. We expect that the pace of policy tightening will slow in the coming months, as: 1) the bulk of the work was already conducted in March and April; and 2) in order to avoid derailing the scrawny recovery in domestic demand.
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Expertise 11.06.2021

Preparing for the start of a mini-cycle

The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set to transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’ similar to those seen in the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis era.