Un partenaire de choix

The US government shutdown, which began on 1 October, has delayed the release of the closely watched non-farm payrolls report. Other economic data published last week were downbeat, reinforcing our expectation that the Federal Reserve will implement two 25-basis-point rate cuts (on 29 October and 10 December) to counter labour market weakness. Meanwhile, negotiations over government spending between the Democrats and Republicans are set to continue in the run-up to the third-quarter earnings season.

Equities are priced to perfection, yet we remain constructive but cautious, while staying upbeat on gold, where we have raised our conviction rating to 5/5.

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Divergent remarks from Federal Reserve members combined with US macroeconomic data that was generally resilient have weighed on optimism for future rate cuts. Attention now turns to this week’s labour market report as a key gauge of job creation, while President Trump is set to meet Democratic and Republican leaders in an effort to avert a government shutdown.

Equities progressed following the US central bank’s 25 basis points rate cut to 4.00–4.25%, which helped fuel investor optimism. Alongside the Fed, several central banks, including the Bank of England (BoE) also met, with the latter leaving its rates unchanged at 4%. This week, attention turns to economic indicators.

In September, gold rose to new all-time highs, approaching USD 3,700 per oz. The upward move reflected several factors.

Equities advanced over the week on expectations of a first Fed rate cut on 17 September. Investors will scrutinise the Fed’s commentary for guidance on further potential cuts in October and December, moves which have largely been priced in by the markets. Policy meetings are also scheduled at the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Norges Bank, with the European Central Bank (ECB) having decided last week to leave its key rate unchanged at 2%.

Trade tensions with the United States, marked by 50% tariffs on Indian exports, have dampened sentiment. However, despite trade-related uncertainties, the growth outlook has been revised upwards, reflecting India’s strong long-term potential.

The Fed now appears to prioritise labour market stability over inflation risks, prompting us to reshape our investment strategy and overall asset allocation.