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Expertise 15.02.2019

The Fed returns the punchbowl to the party

Spotlight - The dramatic Fed pivot from hawkish in September 2018 to now at worst ‘neutral’ signals that the Fed is reluctant to ‘take away the punchbowl’ completely from the post-2008 economic expansion.

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Expertise 15.02.2019

The Fed returns the punchbowl to the party

Spotlight - The dramatic Fed pivot from hawkish in September 2018 to now at worst ‘neutral’ signals that the Fed is reluctant to ‘take away the punchbowl’ completely from the post-2008 economic expansion.

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Market insight 15.02.2019

US: weak industrial production and mixed empire manufacturing

US: Industrial production (Jan): -0.6% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.3%)

  • The decline in IP was driven by a 0.9% drop in manufacturing output, which was largely driven by an 8.8% m/m plunge in motor vehicle output, which reversed a 4.3% surge in December. But there were also signs of weakness in other sectors, which machinery and electronics production both declining.
  • With the latest retail sales data, this provides further reason to think that the Fed won't be raising rates any time soon.

 

US: Empire manufacturing (Feb): 8.8 vs 7 expected (prior: 3.9)

  • While the index rose in Feb, the composition was mixed as the new orders index increased, but the shipments and employment components both declined. The prices paid measure decreased and the 6 months-ahead business conditions index rebounded sharply by 14.5pt to +32.3.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb P): 95.5 vs 93.7 expected (prior: 91.2)

  • Sentiment has rebounded more than expected; sentiment on current situation has increased lower than expected, while expectations rose higher than expected.

 

US: Import price index (Jan): -0.5% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -1%)

  • The decline reflected a drop in the fuel category (-3.2% m/m).
  • Overall, the report was soft as consumer goods import prices fell at their fastest pace in 7 months and auto prices fell by 0.2% m/m.

 

UK: Retail sales (Jan): 1.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1% revised from -1.3%)

  • Sales ex fuel were up by 1.2% m/m vs 0.2% m/m expected (-1% the prior month); Internet sales have rebounded by 3.7% m/m and represent 18.8% of total sales (prior: 19.8%).
  • Overall, retail sales rebounded as clothing discounts attracted shoppers but downside risks could continue to weigh on consumption as political scenario remains unclear.

 

Spain: CPI (Jan F): -1.7% m/m as expected (prior: -0.5%)

  • On a y/y basis: 1% as expected (prior: 1.2%).
  • Clothing and footwear have driven trend in headline prices lower (-15.4% m/m), while transportation rose by 0.3% m/m.