Forex

The capture of Nicolás Maduro in a US-led operation has seized global attention. Washington has signalled its intention to oversee a transitional phase towards a new governing framework, while hinting at potential involvement by US energy companies in rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Beyond the headlines, what could this mean for the energy, oil and other resources markets, Venezuela’s sovereign debt, and geopolitics more broadly? Our experts delve into the implications.

Despite geopolitical turbulence, equity markets closed 2025 with the third consecutive year of double-digit performances, while gold and fixed income also recorded solid annual returns. Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 is broadly seen as constructive. However, recent short-term equity rotations reinforce the case for broadening exposures to structural growth themes. This week, investors will focus on US labour market data.

As the year draws to a close, 2025 delivered robust return across all asset classes. We maintain our conviction in US equities and have upgraded emerging market debt from 3/5 to 4/5.

The Federal Reserve cut its key rates by 25 basis points to 3.25 - 3.75% last week, and surprised observers with the resumption of purchases of short-term Treasuries. The Fed also raised its 2026 growth forecasts to 2.3%. However, we maintain our current scenario of several Fed rate cuts in 2026.

On the equities markets, valuation concerns have resurfaced for AI-related companies, even as the Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment outlook remains robust, while risk appetite expends to cyclical equities. Such dynamics underscore the need for diversification and selectivity as we enter 2026.

L’IA reste la technologie la plus disruptive de la décennie. Les plateformes cloud et les fournisseurs de semi-conducteurs sont les mieux placés pour en profiter.

Global equities closed the first week of December in positive territory, supported by rising expectations of a Fed rate cut, while the bond market experienced rate volatility. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve, which is expected to deliver a 25-bp interest rate cut on Wednesday. A still-supportive backdrop continues to underpin equities, with fiscal stimulus measures, easing monetary policy and structural growth drivers encouraging investors to keep a broader perspective.

China is positioning itself to become a global leader in technological innovation.

The last week of November ended strongly, following a period of market uncertainty. As December gets under way, seasonal patterns point to a firm year-end finish. However, attention is now turning to next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market expectations became markedly more dovish in the final week of November amid growing concerns about the labour market; investors are now pricing in a 25-bp rate cut in December.

Les banques se désengagent du risque, laissant le crédit privé en première ligne.