From oil‑supply shocks to grid bottlenecks, energy is back at the heart of geopolitics. In a world where nearly 80% of primary energy still comes from fossil fuels, recent conflicts and supply disruptions have exposed vulnerabilities – but they’re also catalysing change.
Regions that are light on oil and gas are accelerating electrification, renewables, and energy storage to build resilience. What does this mean for markets, policy, and investors?
UBP’s latest video podcast brings clarity to these questions. In the first episode of our Sustainable Investment Series, Group Head of Sustainable Investment Nicolas Barben speaks with Energy Transition Investment Specialist Marc Elliott about the market dynamics and geopolitical implications now shaping the path to net zero.
Listen to the full discussion on Spotify or Apple Podcast:
Electrification: the backbone of the transition
Recorded against a backdrop of heightened tensions in the Middle East and persistent energy‑security concerns, the conversation starts with a frank assessment: despite policy momentum – over 130 countries have renewed their decarbonisation commitments – global dependence on fossil fuels remains high, and shocks come fast. Marc calls this the third energy crisis in six years after the demand collapse caused by Covid-19 and Europe’s loss of Russian gas.
The takeaway is not paralysis but prioritisation. Europe and China, which are more dependent on imported hydrocarbons, are doubling down on electrification to insulate their economies, while the US is pursuing a more mixed approach, pairing fossil‑fuel strength with surging solar installation and a rapidly evolving battery infrastructure.
“Electrifying more and more of our energy use is a long‑term investment and ultimately is actually more efficient – but it does require a huge amount of investment.”
Marc Elliott, Investment Specialist at UBP
The cost of wind, solar, and especially batteries have fallen sharply over the past decade, and scale continues to drive improvements. By contrast, new thermal generation remains exposed to inflation and fuel‑price volatility.
Policy is pivotal here: measures that pair renewables with storage are unlocking grid flexibility and improving resilience. Consumer behaviour could also inflect: if oil prices remain elevated, EV adoption may re‑accelerate in markets where momentum has slowed.
The path is not a straight one. Short‑term security needs may slow the retirement of coal-fired power stations in some countries, which is an expedient but climate‑negative trade‑off. At the same time, fast‑rising electricity demand – from AI data centres to new industrial loads – is straining grids, underscoring the need for investment in energy transmission and storage. Without de‑risking, higher power prices can complicate industrial decarbonisation; governments will need to provide credible frameworks to crowd in private capital.
Materials and the long game
Materials are another through‑line. Decarbonisation is an infrastructure build‑out that will require more copper, aluminium, and steel. That raises important considerations about environmental and human‑rights practices in mining, and potential dependencies on critical mineral supply chains. In the long run, circularity offers a counterweight: aluminium and steel are already widely recycled in developed markets, and the installed base of low‑carbon infrastructure will become tomorrow’s feedstock.
A key question that emerges is whether we have enough materials. “Yes – at a price,” says Marc. Higher prices can unlock lower‑grade resources and new supply, while engineering innovation reduces metals intensity over time.
For investors, the implications are clear. Security imperatives, policy support, and improving economics are converging to create compelling investment opportunities across decarbonisation themes. The transition will be uneven by region and sector, but its direction is set.
The opinions expressed herein are correct as at 20 April 2026 and are subject to change without notice. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security. Past performance is not a guide to current or future results. Any forecast, projection or target, where provided, is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way.
