1. Investment-Expertise
  2. Markteinblicke

Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Donnerstag 14 November
Q3 German growth stronger than expected

US: PPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

  • Prices have rebounded after the fall the prior month; prices of food, energy and trade services were on a strong rebound after their fall in Sept.

  • Yearly trend has moderated on base effect, from 1.4% y/y to 1.1% y/y; core PPIs were up by 0.1% m/m ( flat past month) and were up by 1.5% y/y after 1.7% y/y.


US: Initial jobless claims (Nov.9): 225k vs 215k expected (prior: 211k)

  • Continuing claims: 1683 k after 1693 k past week.


Germany: GDP (Q3-19): 0.1% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -0.1%)

  • First estimate pointed to a more resilient growth than expected, thanks to consumption, residential construction and public spending; investment and exports remained weak.

  • The manufacturing sector remained fragile, but the growth outlook should progressively improve next year.


France: Unemployment rate (Q3-19): 8.6% vs 8.4% expected (prior: 8.5%)

  • Unemployed has increased by 10 k after -70 k past quarter.


France: CPI (Oct.): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Inflation was in line with the first estimate. The monthly fall was mainly due to falling food prices.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 1.1% y/y to 0.9% y/y.


Spain: CPI (Oct.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Inflation remained on a weak trend (0.2% y/y) in final data. The monthly rebound was driven mainly by clothes, and also by food and education costs.


Poland: GDP (Q3-19): 1.3% q/q vs 1.1% expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • Preliminary data pointed towards a rebound in growth.


Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Oct.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)

  • Import prices were down by 4.7% y/y (-4% y/y the prior month) and producer prices were down by 2.4% y/y (-2% y/y the prior month).


UK: RICS house price balance (Oct.): -5% vs -3% expected (prior: -3% revised from -2%)

  • Balance of sentiment among professionals has rebounded on sales, was less negative on prices, but remained cautious on future sales and new buyers.


UK: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Sales have shown a modest but broad-based contraction across sectors over the month; internet sales have regained (0.8% m/m) after two months contraction.

  • Yearly trend in sales remained healthy at 3.1% y/y.


Turkey: Industrial production (Sept.): 3.2% m/m (prior: -2.7% revised from -2.8%)

  • The yearly trend has also rebounded to 3.4% y/y after -3.6% y/y the prior month. The monthly rebound was driven by intermediate, capital and non-durable consumer goods.

Mittwoch 13 November
US: firmer than expected monthly change in headline CPI

US: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month. Energy and transport prices have strongly rebounded over the month, while prices of computers and apparels have shown large monthly decrease.Rents have moderated (0.2% m/m, after 0.3% m/m) and services were up by 0.3% m/m.

  • Yearly trend has slightly accelerated for headline inflation (from 1.7% to 1.8% y/y) and core inflation has slightly moderated from 2.4% to 2.3% y/y.


UK: CPI (Oct.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Food, housing and households goods prices have significantly declined over the month; on the opposite, education and clothes remained on a sustained monthly trend.

  • The yearly trend has eased from 1.7% y/y to 1.5% y/y.


UK: PPI Input prices (Oct.): -1.3% m/m vs -1% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.8%)

  • Imported material prices (metal, chemical) and imported equipment good prices have sharply fallen over the month, during which the GBP has strongly rebounded.

  • Yearly trend was more negative, at -5.1% y/y than -3% y/y past month.


UK: PPI Output prices (Oct.): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1%)

  • Oil prices were down by 0.7% m/m and core prices down by 0.1% m/m.

  • Yearly trend has moderated from 1.2% y/y the prior month to 0.8% y/y.


Sweden: CPI (Oct.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Yearly trend has slightly increased from 1.5% to 1.6% y/y; core inflation was flat over the month and up from 1.3% to 1.5% y/y.


Eurozone: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • While production of capital goods and non-durable consumer goods have continued to increase, production of intermediary goods and energy have fallen over the month.

  • Yearly trend has turned less negative: from -2.8% y/y past month to -1.7% y/y.


Germany: CPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

  • Confirmation of first estimate; yearly trend stable at 0.9% y/y.


Brazil: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • A strong rebound of sales of clothes, personal goods and furniture. Yearly trend has improved (2.1% y/y), but it stays volatile.


Russia: GDP (Q3-19): 1.7% y/y (prior: 0.9%)

  • Preliminary estimates points towards firmer growth.

Dienstag 12 November
Rising business sentiment in the US (small firms) and strong rebound in German ZEW expectations

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Oct.): 102.4 vs 105 expected (prior: 101.8)

  • Sentiment has slightly regained from past month low level, but the index level remains below Q2-19 and 2018 levels.

  • Sentiment has slightly increased on capital spending, improving economy and sales, and on net compensation.

  • Plan to hire index has marginally regained after the fall past month.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Sept.): 3.8% vs 3.9% expected (prior: 3.9%)

  • Claimant count: 3.4% after 3.3% the prior month; jobless claims: 33 k after 13.5 k prior month (revised from 21.1 k).

  • While unemployed has slightly decreased (more full time workers, less part time), the claimant count is on a regular rising trend over the past two years.


UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Sept.): 3.6% y/y vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.7% revised from 3.8%)

  • Wage growth has slightly eased over the past two months, peaking from July (3.9% y/y). The trend has eased for wage growth in both public and service sectors.


Norway: GDP Mainland (Q3-19): 0.7% q/q vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.7%)

  • While net trade was negative, public consumption and investment were relatively strong; consumption stayed on a quite stable growth trend, up by 0.4% q/q.


France: Business sentiment (Bank of France) (Oct.): 98 vs 97 expected (prior: 96)

  • Sentiment has increased as opinions on production and orders have strongly rebounded from prior month.

  • Sentiment is forming a bottom, but its level of index remains below 2017 levels.


Germany: Zew (Nov.): -2.1 vs -13 expected (prior: -22.8)

  • A strong rebound in confidence after several months of regular falls.


Turkey: Current account (Sept.): 2.48bn USD vs 2.15bn expected (prior: 2.68bn revised from 2.6bn)

  • Trade deficit has moderated, but surplus in services has decreased from past month.

Montag 11 November
UK growth firmer in Q3, but still signs of fragilities

UK: GDP (Q3-19): 0.3% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.2%)

  • Growth has recovered after a Q2 contraction, but slightly less than expected; consumption was on stable pace, up by 0.4% q/q and net exports have contributed positively to the growth.

  • Over the quarter, services and construction have shown some rebound after flat or contraction in Q2.

  • Separately, monthly estimates of GDP have shown a strong rebound in July (0.3% m/m), followed by some contraction in Aug. (-0.2% m/m) and in Sept. (-0.1% m/m).

  • Growth could remain moderate and fragile, as long as no visibility emerges from Brexit/elections, but a recession could be avoided.


UK: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.3% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.6%)

  • Manufacturing production was down by 0.4% m/m after -0.7% m/m the prior month. Activity in oil and mining sectors has rebounded over the month.


Norway: CPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m (prior: 0.5%)

  • Inflation has slightly increased from 1.5% y/y to 1.8% y/y. Core inflation was flat over the month and stable on a yearly basis (2.2% y/y).


Italy: Industrial production (Sept.): -0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

  • Production of non-durable consumer goods and capital goods was up over the month; the yearly trend has deteriorated further from -1.7% y/y the prior month to -2.1% y/y.

Freitag 08 November
Improving US consumer confidence; modest rebound in French industrial production

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov.): 95.7 vs 95.5 expected (prior: 95.5)

  • Sentiment has slightly increased from past month in first estimates.

  • Sentiment has eased on current conditions, back to previous month’s level; sentiment on future conditions has slightly increased, being on a rebuilding process since past Aug.

  • Financial situation is a source of concern, but business expectations have improved. Willingness to buy large items has moderated from past month high level, and was back to levels seen in Q2.


Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Oct.): 2.3% as expected (prior: 2.3%)

  • Unemployment stayed at a low level.


Germany: Trade Balance (Sept.): 21.1bn EUR vs 19.5bn expected (prior: 16.4bn revised from 16.2bn)

  • Current account surplus: EUR 25.5 bn after 17.3 bn prior month.

  • Exports were up by 1.5% m/m, and imports up by 1.3% m/m.


France: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.9%)

  • Manufacturing production was up by 0.6% m/m after -0.8% m/m the prior month.

  • By sector, production has rebounded in food, utility and construction, but has contracted further in the other sectors including autos.

Macro economic

The Chief Economist's weekly update

To help you navigate through the economic news, here is a summary of last week’s main events and what to look out for next week.

Institutionelle Kunden

Das UBP Asset Management ist dank organischem Wachstum und ausgewählten Partnerschaften heute mit mehr als 200 Mitarbeitenden an den wichtigsten Finanzzentren der Welt präsent.

Unser Fondsangebot


Alle Fonds sehen.

Analysen 06.11.2019

UBP Investment Outlook 2020

The Global Economy at the Crossroads