US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 59.1 vs 56.5 expected (prior: 57.1)
- Surprisingly confidence in manufacturing has increased further due to improving opinions on production and orders.
- The preliminary index reached higher points than in 2017 and in 2014.
US: Markit Services PMI (Jan.): 57.5 vs 53.4 expected (prior: 54.8)
- Sentiment has increased, contrary to expectations and to the situation in Europe.
- Sentiment improved on output while new demand has moderated; prices have shown a strong rise, trend already mentioned in the prior months.
- Momentum remained positive in both manufacturing and services sectors in the US contrary to Europe.
US: Existing home sales (Dec.): 6.76M vs 6.56M expected (prior: 6.71M revised from 6.69M)
- Sales remained at a high level, after upward revisions to prior month data.
- Sales have rebounded on both single-family houses and condos; prices remained at a high level from past month trend.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 54.7 vs 54.4 expected (prior: 55.2)
- Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month, but globally less than expected.
- According to preliminary data, confidence has increased further in France, while it has declined in Germany, but the German index remained high (57).
- Manufacturing remained on growth mode, but its pace should moderate after strong rebound past quarters as global demand should moderate facing renewed constraints.
Eurozone: PMI Services (Jan.): 45 vs 44.5 expected (prior: 46.4)
- Sentiment has declined but surprisingly less than estimated; lockdown weighs particularly more on specific sectors and related labor.
- Downside risks are in place on services and particularly some consumer services.
Poland: Retail sales (Dec.): 20% m/m vs 18.3% expected (prior: -5.4%)
- A strong and broad-based rebound after weak data the prior month.
- Yearly trend was less negative, coming from -5.3% y/y the prior month to -0.8% Y7Y.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Jan.): -28 vs -30 expected (prior: -26)
- Confidence has declined on deteriorating future economic conditions.
- The index stayed above the lows seen in Q2-20, but well below its 2019 level.
UK: Retail sales (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -3% revised from -2.6%)
- Sales were positive but less than expected, showing strong impact of the severe lockdown; sales of clothes and non-food sales were strong over the month, while other sales have contacted, including lower volumes in internet sales from the prior month.
- With tough lockdown in place, data should be depressed in Jan.
UK: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 52.9 vs 53.6 expected (prior: 57.5)
- Confidence in the manufacturing sector has decreased more than expected; past inventories rebuilding ahead of Brexit had pushed up the output and this has reverted; moreover, lockdown and moderate global demand has weighed down on the index, which remained above the 50 level.
UK: PMI Services (Jan.): 38.8 vs 45 expected (prior: 49.4)
- A huge fall in confidence related to severe and repeated lockdown in place, impacting more services than manufacturing sector.
- The index was back to its March 2020 level, but still above the lows of April (13.4).