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Daily Macro Digest

Freitag 23 März
Rebound in US durable goods orders was encouraging

US: Durable goods orders (Feb P): 3.1% m/m vs 1.6% expected (prior: -3.5% revised from -3.6%)

  • The strong rise in durable goods orders in February was flattered by a rebound in transport orders, but the details showed an encouraging rebound in underlying capital goods orders.
  • The 26% m/m jump in commercial aircraft orders was in line with the stronger orders reported by Boeing last month, while orders for defense aircraft also posted a big rebound.

US: New home sales (Feb): 618k vs 620k expected (prior: 622k revised from 593k)

  • Sales of new single-family homes declined 0.6% m/m in February. The average price of a new home held broadly steady relative to January, and the annual pace of home price appreciation slowed to 1.7%.

Russia: The central bank has eased its key rates from 7.50% to 7.25%.

Donnerstag 22 März
Falling business sentiment in Eurozone

US: Initial jobless claims (March 17): 229k vs 225k expected (prior: 226k)

  • Continuing claims: 1828 k after 1885 k past week.


US: House price Index MoM (FFHA) (Jan.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.3%)

  • House prices were up by 7.3% y/y.


US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (March): 55.7 vs 55.5 expected (prior: 55.3)

  • Sentiment has increased from past month; this move has erased the small decline seen in Feb., and the trend is still rising.


US: Markit Services PMI (March): 54.1 vs 56 expected (prior: 55.9)

  • Contrary to PMI manufacturing, sentiment in services has eroded from past month; the index has evolved within a large range of 52-56 over the past 12 months.


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (March): 56.6 vs 58.1 expected (prior: 58.6)

  • Flash estimate has decreased more than expected; the index has pointed towards a large decrease of sentiment in France and in Germany. Confidence has probably also eased in peripherals.
  • As PMI were particularly high and above GDP trend growth, a decrease was widely expected; currency changes and rising concerns on global trade have probably exacerbated the monthly fall.


Eurozone: PMI Services (March): 56.6 vs 58.1 expected (prior: 58.6)

  • As seen in manufacturing, a larger fall in flash sentiment estimate in services than epxcted; the fall is limited in France, but larger in Germany and probably in peripherals too.


France: Business confidence (March): 109 as expected (prior: 110)

  • A decline in past and future production and on order books.
  • The decline is a bit less severe than in flash PMI.


Germany: IFO (March): 114.7 vs 114.6 expected (prior: 115.4)

  • Sentiment on current activity and the expectations have both declined from past month; the decline is less pronounced than in flash PMI survey.
  • Trade, industry and retail sectors have seen a fall in the monthly index, while wholesale trade was stable and construction has slightly increased.
  • Based on leading indicators, growth should remain on trend, but no further acceleration has to be expected.


UK: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from 0.1%)

  • Food and household goods sales have rebounded over the month, while other sectors were down.
  • The three month trend on sales has declined, but lower inflation and rising wages could give some support to consumption.


UK: BoE left unchanged its key rates (0.50%).

  • Asset purchases remained at GBP 435 bn. Two governors were in favor of a 25 bp rate hike. Statement has reiterated BoE’s expectations of rising wages and labor costs. Tensions on trade fueled risks on global growth and inflation.
  • A 25 bp rate hike in May is widely expected.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (March): 109.5 (prior: 110.8)

  • Sentiment has eroded on production, orders and employment, but it has slightly increased on export orders.
Mittwoch 21 März
Rising US existing home sales and UK wage growth

US: Existing home sales (Feb.): 5.54M vs 5.40M expected (prior: 5.38M)

  • The rebound was driven by single-family home sales.
  • This data release suggests a firmer pace of residential investment in Q1.


UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Jan.): 4.3% vs 4.4% expected (prior: 4.4%)

  • Jobless claims (Feb.): +9.2k (after -1.6k in January, revised from -7.2k)

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Feb.): 2.8% y/y vs 2.6% expected (prior: 2.7% revised from 2.5%)

  • Ex bonus: 2.6% y/y as expected (prior: 2.5%)
  • Following these revisions, wage growth appears to be broad based across sectors.
  • After this data release, investors repriced rate expectations into next year with two further hikes priced into 2019 in addition to the hike already priced for May 2018.


Russia: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 5.0% vs 5.2% expected (prior: 5.2%)

Russia: Real wages (Feb.): 9.7% y/y vs 6.0% expected (prior: 11.3% revised from 6.2%)

Russia: Disposable income (real) (Feb.): 4.4% y/y vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.0%)

  • The Russian economy remains in recovery mode.


Dienstag 20 März
Inflation in UK on a lower trend; declining sentiment in Germany (ZEW index) with rising tensions on trade
  • Switzerland: Trade balance (Feb.): 3.14 Bn CHF (prior: 2.07Bn)
  • Trade surplus has increased thanks to a rebound in exports (2.3% m/m), while imports have decreased (-9.5 % m/m).


  • UK: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.5%)
  • Prices of clothes, household products and transport have rebounded over the prior month.
  • Trend in inflation has moderated from 3% prior month to 2.7% y/y. Further moderation is expected in the coming months.
  • Despite this slower trend, the prospect of a BoE's rate hike in May remains high.


  • UK: PPI Input prices (Feb.): -1.1% m/m vs -0.9% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.7%)
  • Prices of materials purchased have fallen by 1.3% m/m over the month; yearly trend has also moderated from 4.5% y/y to 3.4% y/y, due to base effects and the rebound in GBP.
  • Output prices have followed the same pattern, declining from 2.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y.


  • Germany: Zew (March): 90.7 vs 90 expected (prior: 92.3)
  • Sentiment on current situation and the expectations have both decreased from past month.
  • Sentiment has deteriorated in autos, steel and also in chemical industries reflecting tensions on trade.


  • Germany: PPI (Feb.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.5%)
  • PPIs have moderated from 2.1% y/y past month to 1.8% y/y.


  • Eurozone: Consumer confidence (March): 0.1 vs 0 expected (prior: 0.1)
  • Flash sentiment remained stable after the fall seen in past month.
  • Index remains at a multi-year high level.


  • Turkey: Consumer confidence (March): 71.3 (prior: 72.3)
  • Sentiment on future economic environment has eroded further.
Freitag 16 März
Rising US consumer confidence and industrial production

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (March Prel.): 102.0 vs 99.3 expected (prior: 99.7)

  • Reflecting a very strong jobs markets, this consumer confidence index rose to a new 14-year high, which suggests that consumption growth should pick up soon after a weak start to the year.

US: Industrial production (Feb.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.1%)

  • Capacity utilisation: 78.1% vs 77.7% expected (prior: 77.4%)
  • The composition of the report was encouraging: production rose in all major sectors except utilities: motor vehicle (+3.9% m/m), manufacturing ex. motor vehicle (+1%) and mining (+4.3%). The decline in utilities production (-4.7%) was the result of warmer-than-normal temperatures in February.
  • Importantly, production of business equipment increased 1% m/m to its highest level this cycle and, together with the solid rise in capacity utilisation, bode well for capital spending on fixed investment in coming months.
  • This adds to evidence that the softer start to the year was only temporary.

US: Housing starts (Feb.): 1236k vs 1326k expected (prior: 1329k)

  • Building permits: 1298k vs 1320k expected (prior: 1377k revised from 1396k)
  • Regarding housing starts, the volatile multi-family category decreased 26.1%, fully reversing a 25.6% gain in January, but single-family starts rose 2.9%.
  • The decline in building permits was largely driven by a 35.2% drop in multi-family units in the South (following a surge in the previous month).


Eurozone: CPI (Feb. F.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.9%)

  • CPI y/y: 1.1% vs 1.2% expected (prior: 1.3%)
  • Core CPI y/y: 1.0% as expected (prior: 1.0%)
  • Headline inflation was revised down by 0.1pp to 1.1%.
  • Headline inflation has probably troughed and should accelerate from March onwards, while core inflation should remain on a very gradual upward trend.


Turkey: Industrial production (Jan.): -0.8% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • IP y/y: 12.0% vs 6.7% expected (prior: 8.7%)
  • The upside surprise on the yearly rate is mainly due to a change in methodology.

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