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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Donnerstag 24 Juni
Rebounding US durable goods orders; new rise in German IFO; no change in BoE’s policy

US: Initial jobless claims (June 19): 411k vs 380k expected (prior: 418k revised from 412k)

  • Continuing claims: 3390 k after 3534 k prior week.


US: Durable goods orders (May): 2.3% m/m vs 2.8% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from -1.3%)

  • The rebound in orders was fueled by no defense aircraft, electrical equipment and primary metals sectors.
  • Core orders (orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft) were up by 0.9% m/m after 1% m/m the prior month.
  • Total shipments were up by 0.4% m/m (flat the previous month, and inventories were up by 0.7% m/m (0.7% m/m the prior month).
  • Despite high monthly volatility, this bodes well for capex in Q2.


US: Wholesale inventories (May): 1.1% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 1% revised from 0.8%)

  • Inventories have increased for durable goods, but at the retail sector, inventories have declined by 0.8% m/m.


US: GDP (Q1-21): 6.4% q/q as expected (prior: 4.3%)

  • Third and final revision left GDP data unchanged for Q1.
  • In detail, investment in capex and residential was slightly revised up, while the drag from lower inventories was less negative and net export contribution was more negative than in the second estimate.
  • Strong growth is expected in Q2 and in Q3, before peaking, and more sector rotation expected.


France: Business confidence (June): 113 vs 110 expected (prior: 108)

  • Confidence has increased from the prior month and exceeds the highs seen in 2017-2018.
  • Opinions have improved future production and orders.
  • Separately, sentiment has also improved on employment and in services-retail sectors.


Germany: IFO (June): 101.8 vs 100.7 expected (prior: 99.2)

  • Sentiment has increased on both current situation and expectations from the prior month; global index stayed below the highs seen in 2017-2018, having some room to improve further.
  • Sentiment has increased in all sectors, but the most in manufacturing, retail and service sectors.


Spain: GDP (Q1-21): -0.4% q/q vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Estimates for Q1 has been slightly revised up; domestic demand has contracted in Q1, but business equipment and R&D remained positive, while other components of domestic demand were under contraction (consumption down by 0.5%q after 0.4%q in Q4-20).
  • Q2 should recover and a strong rebound is expected in Q3.


Poland: Unemployment rate (May): 6.1% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

  • After a rebound in March, the unemployment ratio has fallen again in the following months.


UK: BoE left unchanged its monetary policy and key rates.

  • key rates remained at 0.01% as expected; BOE maintains its QE at GBP 875 bn for government bonds and GBP 20 bn for corporates bonds in a 8-1 vote: one vote was in favour of decreasing purchases, this from M. Haldane, leaving the Committee this month.
  • The statement was positive on growth and a stronger rebound is expected in Q2 on reopening economy. The bank is expecting high growth and high inflation, but inflation rebound should only be transitory; the Bank will probably wait for the end of support to labor (Sept.) before changing its communication.


Brazil: Consumer confidence (June): 80.9 (prior: 76.2)

  • Sentiment has regained on both current situation and expectations from the prior month.


Turkey: Industrial confidence (June): 109.8 (prior: 107.1)

  • Sentiment has slightly increased from past month, being volatile in past months but close to the highs seen in 2017-18.
  • Opinions have increased on orders, employment and output from the prior month.
Mittwoch 23 Juni
Flash PMIs: mixed in the US, lower in UK, on the rise in the eurozone

US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (June): 62.6 vs 61.5 expected (prior: 62.1)

  • Sentiment has slightly increased from the prior month, with still optimism on future production.
  • Production was still limited by shortage and constraints on supply chain; delivery time has increased further adding to the positive surprise of the release; opinions on employment have moderated as firms mentioned difficulties to hire more labor force.
  • Price remained on the rise.


US: Markit Services PMI (June): 64.8 vs 70 expected (prior: 70.4)

  • While demand remained high, sentiment has weakened from the prior month, but the index remained at very high level.
  • Opinions on new business have moderated from the previous month but sentiment on export services has improved on less travel constraints.
  • Sentiment on employment has decreased with ongoing difficulties to hire people. Prices remained on the rise.
  • The combined manufacturing-service index (composite) has peaked from high level but remained in expansion mode (63.8 after 68.7 prior month)


US: New home sales (May): 769k vs 865k expected (prior: 817k revised from 863k)

  • Sales declined from the prior month and normalized to lower levels after peak reached last year.
  • One region has shown a marked decline in sales (South district); inventories have slightly increased.
  • Monthly changes in prices remained positive and yearly trend remained on the rise (range 16%-18%y/y).


Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (June): 63.1 vs 62.3 expected (prior: 63.1)

  • Business sentiment remained unchanged from the prior month, but differences continue to build across countries; the German index has increased from 64.6 to 64.9, while the French index eased from 59.4 to 58.6.
  • Activity has globally expanded further, and new orders continue to rebuild as well as new export orders; constraints on production (shortages and supply chain constraints) remained in place, except a first modest easing in Germany.
  • Employment was on the rise; prices have continued to increase further.


Eurozone: PMI Services (June): 58 as expected (prior: 55.3)

  • Sentiment has strongly rebounded on reopening activity and strong demand; new business was on the rise, and optimism has rebuilt on future activity.
  • Employment has also strongly rebounded; prices remained on a rising trend.
  • These data pointed to rebuilding momentum in activity end of Q2: after a rebound in activity in Q2, a stronger growth will be seen in Q3.


UK: PMI Manufacturing (June): 64.2 vs 64 expected (prior: 65.6)

  • Sentiment has weakened from the prior month as new orders declined from top highs.
  • Several constraints remained active in manufacturing and prices stayed on the rise.


UK: PMI Services (June): 61.7 vs 62.8 expected (prior: 62.9)

  • After strong rebound the prior month, sentiment has eroded from high level; employment has strongly rebounded thanks to reopening in services.
Dienstag 22 Juni
US: declining existing home sales but rising Fed Richmond business confidence

US: Existing home sales (May): 5.8M vs 5.73M expected (prior: 5.85M)

  • Whiles sales of condos remained stable from the prior month, sales of single family houses have declined further, being in a downward trend since past Dec.; prices remained at absolute high levels and still have shown a 24.4% y/y rise for median prices and a 17.5% y/y for average prices.
  • Existing and pending home sales have cooled down over the past month, while prices remained on sustained momentum.


US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (June): 22 vs 18 expected (prior: 18)

  • The index has regained to its highest range after volatile and weak period in Q1.
  • The picture was mixed on both current and future situation in the details: new orders have improved on current situation but shipments and employment have weakened; on the 6-month views, the same mixed picture in the details, but interesting to note an improvement in capex, employment and in wages.


Poland: Retail sales (May): 8.2% m/m vs 6.4% expected (prior: -7.7%)

  • Highly volatile data over past months; purchases of clothes and household goods have rebounded ahead of auto sales.
  • Base effect remained strong, sales being up by 19.1% y/y after 25.7% y/y the prior month.


Italy: Industrial sales (April): 3.3% m/m (prior: 1.7%)

  • Domestic sales were strongly up over the month (4% m/m), and foreign sales were positive but on more moderate rebound. Sales were strong for investment and intermediate goods.


Sweden: Unemployment rate (May): 9.1% vs 8.8% expected (prior: 9.1%)

  • Unemployed has slightly increased over the month, but the unemployment ratio remained stable.
Montag 21 Juni
Mixed US activity indicator

US: Chicago Fed nat. Activity index: 0.29 vs 0.70 expected; prior month 0.24 revised to -0.09.

  • Gauge for activity has turned highly volatile past months; it has slightly rebounded over the month after downward revision on past month data.


Switzerland: M3 (May): 4.1% y/y vs 4.7% expected (prior: 4.9%)

  • Monetary aggregates have shown a declining trend in yearly growth pace over the past months; M1 trend has slowed down from 7.3% y/y the prior month to 6.5% y/y and M2 from 5.3% y/y to 4.4% y/y.


Poland: PPI (May): 0.8%m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)

  • Prices remained sustained in mining (3.5% m/m) and also in manufacturing sector (0.7% m/m).
  • Yearly trend was up by 6.5% y/y after 5.5% y/y the prior month.


Poland: Industrial production (May): -0.8% m/m vs -1.5% expected (prior: -9.2%)

  • Activity has slightly contracted further after sharp correction the prior month; mining production was up by 1.5% m/m, but manufacturing production was down by 0.4% m/m after -9.4% m/m the prior month.
Freitag 18 Juni
UK sales contracted in May after a strong rebound in April

UK: Retail sales (May): -1.4% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: 9.2%)

  • Sales have reversed after the strong rebound the prior month; all sectors were down over the month, except sales of household goods. Services were not included, and on-line sales remained stable (nominal terms) from the prior month.
  • Despite more volatile data ahead, strong rebound in growth is under course.


Germany: PPI (May): 1.5% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • Prices have accelerated further on rising energy (2.6% m/m), mining (2.9% m/m) and also manufacturing goods ex oil (0.9% m/m).
  • Yearly trend has accelerated further from 5.2% y/y the prior month to 7.2% y/y.

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Analysen 15.06.2021

Impact-anlagen in schwellen-ländern nach der pandemie

Das Jahr 2020 war ein echter Stresstest für Impact-Anlagen. Es war schwierig, ein Gleichgewicht zwischen positiver Wirkung und finanzieller Rendite zu finden.