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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Freitag 20 September
Eurozone: less depressed consumer sentiment


Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Sept.): -6.5 vs -7 expected (prior: -7.1)

  • Flash estimate has pointed towards a less negative sentiment; it has evolved in a -7.3/-6.5 range over the past 6 months.

  • More details should be published next week; trend is expected to slightly improve after very depressed levels, but risks remain in place and fuel savings versus consumption.


Germany: PPI (Aug.): -0.5% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Energy prices have sharply contracted, and manufacturing prices were also down by 0.1% m/m.

  • Yearly trend has eased from 1.1% y/y prior month to 0.3% y/y.


Poland: Retail sales (Aug.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 1.7%)

  • Auto and pharma sales have sharply contracted over the month; yearly trend in total sales has moderated from 5.7% y/y past month to 4.4% y/y.


Turkey: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 55.8 (prior: 58.3)

  • Confidence has fallen, back to past May levels; views on future economy, financial situation and unemployment have deteriorated after a rebound over the past three months.

Donnerstag 19 September
No change in BoE and SNB monetary policy; US existing home sales on rebound

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Sept.): 12 vs 10.5 expected (prior: 16.8)

  • Sentiment has weakened less than expected, but on both current and future situation.

  • Details were mixed: lower orders, higher inventories, rising prices and also rising employment.

  • Sentiment on future capex has increased after low sentiment past month.


US: Initial jobless claims (Sept.14): 208k vs 213k expected (prior: 206k revised from 204k)

  • Continuing claims: 1661 k after 1674 k past week.


US: Existing home sales (Aug.): 5.49M vs 5.38M expected (prior: 5.42M)

  • Sales have strongly rebounded, back in the 5.5-5.6M range seen at the top 2016-2017.

  • Inventories have decreased; prices have moderated from past month, but yearly trend remained healthy.


Switzerland: The SNB has not changed its strategy

  • Despite rising CHF, SNB left its key rates and strategy unchanged (key rates at -0.75%).

  • The SNB has adjusted lower its growth forecasts (1%-1.5% range for 2019) and revised lower its inflation forecasts (from 0.6% to 0.4% y/y for 2019, from 0.7% to 0.2% y/y for 2020 and from 1.1% to 0.6% y/y for 2021). Downside risks remain in place (political situation, trade) and the CHF remained overvalued, justifying FX interventions.

  • As negative rates are in place, the SNB has technically raised exemption threshold on banks reserves.



Switzerland: Trade balance (Aug.): 1.59 Bn CHF (prior: 3.69Bn)

  • Real exports: -4.4% m/m; real imports: +1% m/m.

  • Trade contraction and expensive CHF maintained negative momentum in exports.


UK: BoE has not changed its current strategy

  • Key rates remained unchanged at 0.75%, but communication has turned slightly more dovish mentioning potential easing if Brexit is delayed further, fueling weakening demand and excess capacity and thus lower inflationary pressure.

  • In case of a deal, BoE should be more vigilant on inflation and wage growth.


UK: Retail sales (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

  • Data have disappointed, but past month data were revised up.

  • Household goods and food sales remained positive, while other sectors have weakened after past month rise.

  • Trend has slowed down, but it remained positive (from 3.1% to 2.2% y/y on ex-energy sales).


Poland: Industrial production (Aug.): -6% m/m vs -3.8% expected (prior: 2.8%)

  • Production has contracted by 1.3% y/y after 5.8% y/y the prior month.

  • Activity stayed highly volatile, but momentum has deteriorated in all major sectors.


Mittwoch 18 September
US housing starts rebound; falling yearly inflation trend in the UK

US: Housing starts (Aug.): 1364k vs 1250k expected (prior: 1215k revised from 1191k)

  • Building permits: 1419 k vs 1300 k expected; 1317 k past month.

  • Single family and multifamily houses have strongly rebounded after weak data over the past three months; low interest rates have finally revived momentum in housing construction.


UK: CPI (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0%)

  • Food and prices for clothes have strongly increased over the month, but total monthly changes on headline inflation remained just below expectations, thanks to lower computer and other household good prices.

  • Yearly inflation has moderated from 2.1y/y the prior month to 1.7%y/y, and core inflation from 1.9% y/y to 1.6% y/y. This should temporarily relieve some pressure on the BoE, which is expected to leave key rates unchanged at its meeting. Weak GBP and volatile oil prices could refuel inflation back to the 2% trend next months.


UK: PPI Input prices (Aug.): -0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.9%)

  • Prices of crude oil and gas have sharply fallen over the month. Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m after 0.8% m/m the prior month.

  • Yearly trend has reversed from 0.9% y/y past month to -0.8% y/y for total input prices; on the contrary, yearly trend remained relatively stable for core prices: 2.6% y/y after 2.8% y/y.


UK: PPI Output prices (Aug.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Core prices were up by 0.2% m/m after 0.4% m/m the prior month; yearly trend has eased from 1.9% y/y to 1.6% y/y, while core inflation remained stable at 2% y/y.


Eurozone: CPI (Aug.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.5%)

  • Energy prices have fallen by 0.6% m/m, but food prices (0.2% m/m) and services (0.3% m/m) were rising.

  • Yearly trend remained stable at 1% y/y and core inflation at 0.9% y/y.


Italy: Industrial orders (July): -2.9% m/m vs -0.9% expected (prior: -1%)

  • Domestic and foreign orders have both contracted on a monthly and yearly basis.

  • Industrial sales have also sharply contracted on a monthly and yearly change for both domestic and foreign sales.


Dienstag 17 September
US industrial production increased more than expected in August

US: Industrial production (Aug.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

  • Manufacturing production: 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Increases in manufacturing ex motor vehicle (+0.6% m/m), utilities (+0.6%), and mining (+1.4% thanks to a rebound following the Hurricane Barry in July) production offset a 1% m/m decline in motor vehicle and parts production.

  • Interestingly, production of business equipment jumped 1% m/m in August, which bodes well for investment in GDP. Moreover, production of consumer goods rose for the fourth consecutive month (+0.2%), reflecting optimism ahead of the holiday shopping season.

  • Hard data are better than business surveys in the manufacturing sector but the uncertainty around trade policy and new tariffs do not bode well for the coming months.


US: NAHB housing market index (Sept.): 68 vs 66 expected (prior: 67 revised from 66)

  • Unexpected increase, to the highest level in nearly one year.

  • The current sales component (+2 to 75) increased, while the future sales component (-1 to 70) declined.

  • Low interest rates and solid demand are underpinning builder sentiment despite some supply-side challenges (including shortages of lots and labor).


Germany: Zew (Sept.): -22.5 vs -38.0 expected (prior: -44.1)

  • Current situation: -19.9 vs -15.0 expected (prior: -13.5)

  • Investor confidence in Germany improved from an 8-year low, notably thanks to easing fears of a further intensification of the trade conflict.


Montag 16 September
US: renewed weakness in New York business sentiment

US: NY Empire manufacturing (Sept.): 2 vs 4 expected (prior: 4.8)

  • Sentiment has eased on lower new orders, shipments and rising inventories.

  • The 6-month outlook has also weakened, on same concerns but moreover, for the first time, the outlook on capital and IT spending has been cut significantly.


Italy: CPI (Aug.): 0.4% m/m (prior: -1.8%)

  • Final inflation has shown flat monthly change the yearly trend has stabilized at 0.5% y/y after 0.3% y/y the prior month.


Turkey: Unemployment rate (June): 13% (prior: 12.8%)

  • The unemployment has slightly eased with modest rise in employment.

Macro economic

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Analysen 29.08.2019

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