US: Markit Manufacturing PMI (July): 50.9 vs 51.3 expected (prior: 49.8)
- Final data were below first estimate but reached 50. A more modest rebound in production than in the first estimate, and slow rebuilding of new orders, while new exports orders have marginally decreased.
US: ISM Manufacturing (July): 54.2 vs 53.6 expected (prior: 52.6)
- Sentiment on production and new orders has strongly rebounded and seems better oriented than in the PMI index; the related sub-index on production was up to record 62 from 57.3 the prior month.
- New export orders have also increased and were back to 50.4.
- Employment index has modestly improved (from 42.1 the prior month to 44.3).
- The large firms are more present in ISM survey than in the PMI index, which seem to benefit the most from the ongoing recovery. If local lockdown is back, sentiment could ease back in August.
US: Construction spending (June): -0.7% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: -1.7% revised from -2%)
- Residential construction was down by 1.4% m/m after -3.5% m/m the prior month. Non -residential construction was also down by just 0.2% m/m.
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (July): 51.8 vs 51.1 expected (prior: 47.4)
- Business sentiment has increased more than in the first estimate in all major countries (all index now above 50 in a 51-53.5 range).
- The rebound was mainly fueled by production with the end of the lockdown; orders have just begun to slightly improve, while sentiment stayed quite negative on employment.
- Business sentiment could evolve in a range in the next months, but some easing is possible next month due to rebound in COVID cases and some easing in demand.
Poland: PMI Manufacturing (July): 52.8 vs 50 expected (prior: 47.2)
- A strong rebound in new orders.
UK: PMI Manufacturing (July): 53.3 vs 53.6 expected (prior: 50.1)
- Sentiment has regained further on production and prospects of ending the lockdown; orders have rebounded for a first time, but new exports have continued to fall; employment has contracted further, while upward pressures were seen in input and output prices.
Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (July): 49.2 vs 50 expected (prior: 41.9)
- Sentiment has significantly rebounded on all major components from the prior month; but the index remained below 50.
- Production index has passed above 50, while new orders improved but remained below 50.
- Separately, PMI services has rebounded from 49.1 to 51.6, thanks to strong increase in activity, while new orders have declined after past month rebound.
Switzerland: CPI (July): -0.2% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0%)
- Core inflation was down by 0.2% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month.
- Despite a 0.5% m/m rebound in energy prices, index has contracted due to lower food, clothes and communication prices.
- Headline (-0.9% y/y) and core inflation (-0.2% y/y) remained in negative territory, but the decline was less pronounced than past month.
Sweden: PMI Manfacturing (July): 51 vs 50.5 expected (prior: 47.6 revised from 47.3)
Norway: PMI (July): 43.3 (prior: 48.8 revised from 48.9)
Russia: PMI Manufacturing (July): 48.4 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 49.4)
- Index on new orders has passed below 50.
Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (July): 58.2 (prior: 51.6)
- A strong rebound in current production and rebuilding new orders.