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Daily Macroeconomic Digest

Date
Title
Teaser
Dienstag 16 Juli
Solid retail sales and manufacturing production in the US

US: NAHB housing market index (July): 65 vs 64 expected (prior: 64)

  • Prospective buyers traffic was also a tad higher.

 

US: Industrial production (June): 0.0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4%)

  • Manufacturing production: 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.2%)

  • Soft utility output (-3.6% m/m because of weather fluctuation) weighed down on the headline figure, but manufacturing output rebounded, led by a strong increase in auto production (+2.9%). Still manufacturing production is only up 0.4% y/y and remains fragile.

 

US: Retail sales (June): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

  • Ex auto and gasoline: 0.7% vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.5%)

  • Control retail sales, which is taken into account in GDP, increased by 0.7% m/m (vs 0.3% expected), the fourth consecutive monthly increase. They increased by 7.5% q/q annualized in Q2, the strongest gain since Q4 2005, which will raise forecasts for Q2 GDP growth.

  • Healthy consumption growth is especially important now given the weakening industrial sector. This also suggests that the US consumer does see a downturn coming.

  • This should not change the FOMC's decision at the end of the month as it is already aware that consumer spending is currently an important driver of growth.

 

US: Import price index (June): -0.9% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.3%)

  • The weakness reflects declines in petroleum (-6.2%), industrial supplies (-3.3%), and food (-1.5%) import prices.

 

Germany: Zew (July): -24.5 vs -22.0 expected (prior: -21.1)

  • Current situation: -1.1 vs 5.0 expected (prior: 7.8)

  • Investor confidence fell for the third straight month, close to the weakest level in seven years. The gauge for current conditions fell below zero for the first time since 2010

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (May): 3.8% as expected (prior: 3.8%)

  • Jobless claims change (June): +38.0k after 24.5k in May

  • The labor market stays resilient.

 

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (May): 3.4% y/y vs 3.1% expected (prior: 3.2% revised from 3.1%)

  • The pick-up in weekly earnings growth seems driven by temporary factors.

 

Russia: Industrial production (June): 3.3% y/y vs 2.0% expected (prior: 0.9%)

  • The improvement was led by manufacturing (+5.5% m/m)

Montag 15 Juli
US: New York empire business confidence rebounded in July

US: Empire manufacturing (Jul): 4.3 vs 2 expected (prior: -8.6)

  • Sentiment has rebounded but the report was mixed, with an increase in the new orders, but declines in the employment (the lowest level in almost three years) and shipments components.

  • Expectations have rebounded with a broad-based rises on sub-items including orders.

  • Overall, the report continues to suggest weakness in regional manufacturing activity.

Freitag 12 Juli
Stronger-than-expected rebound in eurozone industrial production

US: PPI (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • PPI y/y: 1.7% vs 1.6% expected (prior: 1.8%)

  • Core PPI (ex food, energy & trade): 0.0% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.4%); 2.1% y/y (prior: 2.3%)

  • Slightly higher than expected like yesterday's CPI but very unlikely to change Fed's policy makers decision at the end of the month.

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (May): 0.9% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.5%)

  • IP y/y: -0.5% vs -1.5% expected (prior: -0.4%)

  • Solid and broad-based rebound despite subdued business sentiment in the manufacturing sector. However, persistent pessimism among manufacturers and weak factory orders suggest that June may not be as good.

 

Turkey: Industrial production (May): 1.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -1.0%)

  • IP y/y: -1.3% vs -2.0% expected (prior: -4.0%)

  • Still negative on a yearly basis but the least since last September

 

 

Donnerstag 11 Juli
US core inflation slightly higher than expected

US: CPI (Jun): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.1%)

  • Inflation has moderated on lower energy prices (-2.3% m/m), and related sectors such as transport, and lower prices for computers.

  • Core inflation rose by 0.3% m/m, the most since January 2018, and 2.1% y/y (prior: 2.0%). The report showed broad monthly gains in the core categories, including pickups in costs for shelter, used vehicles, clothing, and home furnishings and operations.

  • Additionally, the impact of new tariffs appeared modest in today’s report and only evident in the furniture and bedding category.

  • While datas were slightly higher than expected risk management in response to elevated economic uncertainty appears to be a strong catalyst for an insurance cut.

 

US: Initial jobless claims (Jul 6): 209k vs 221k expected (prior: 222k revised from 221k)

  • Continuing claims: 1723k vs 1683k expected (1696k revised from 1686k)

  • Overall, the jobless claims data continues to suggest that the pace of layoffs remains very low.

 

Germany: CPI (Jun F): 0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

  • Prices of clothes, education, transport and communication have declined and they have moderated in other sectors.

  • However, German inflation was revised higher in June from 1.3% y/y to 1.5% y/y, providing some positive news for the ECB, which is particularly concerned about inflation/inflations expectations across the euro area.

Mittwoch 10 Juli
Firmer industrial production in the UK, France and Italy

US: Wholesale inventories (May): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.8%)

  • Inventories have risen further, particularly on autos and machinery; sales were up by 0.1% m/m after -0.4% m/m past month, despite a 3.2% m/m rebound in auto sales.

  • The inventory-to-sales ratio has slightly increased from 1.34 to 1.35.

 

UK: Industrial production (May): 1.4% m/m vs 1.5% expected (prior: -2.9% revised from -2.7%)

  • Manufacturing activity and energy sectors have rebounded from depressed level the prior month.

  • Production of durable goods and investment goods (transport and basic metals) has strongly rebounded, counter-balancing the fall seen in April.

  • The yearly trend has improved from -1.1% y/y the prior month to 0.9% y/y.

 

France: Industrial production (May): 2.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.4%)

  • A strong rebound driven by firmer activity in transport, autos, electricity and construction.

  • The yearly trend has strongly rebounded from 1.1% y/y the prior month to 4% y/y.

 

Italy: Industrial production (May): 0.9% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.7%)

  • A strong rebound in activity, driven by chemicals, machinery and the transport sectors.

  • Yearly trend has improved from -1.5% y/y the prior month to -0.7% y/y.

 

Norway: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.3%)

  • Underlying inflation has rebounded by 0.4% m/m after -0.2% m/m the prior month; while transport prices were up by 1.5% m/m, prices for clothes and housing have sharply decreased by more than 1% m/m.

  • Yearly trend has declined from 2.5% y/y the prior month to 1.9% y/y, while core inflation stayed on a stable trend (2.3% y/y).

 

Brazil: CPI (IBGE) (June): 0% m/m vs -0.03% expected (prior: 0.13%)

  • Inflation has declined from 4.66% y/y the prior month to 3.37% y/y. Over the month, prices for food, transport and communication have declined.

Macro economic

The Chief Economist's weekly update

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