新闻中心/瑞联卓见

美联储经全票通过，将利率上调25个基点（bps），至3.75%–4.00%，并表示此举旨在防范能源价格对核心通胀造成影响；而尽管英格兰银行会议纪要显示其立场更为鹰派，但该行仍将利率维持在3.75%不变。

随着中东冲突不断升级，油价飙升至每桶100美元以上，导致上周政府债券和股票市场普遍出现抛售，通胀担忧推动美国、欧元区和英国的收益率大幅攀升。

Our outlook for risk assets remains constructive, supported by broadening earnings growth, though tempered by persistent inflation and an oil market showing little sign of easing. Against this backdrop, we are raising our target range for US 10-year yields to 4.25–4.75%, with rising yields and oil prices standing out as the principal risks to our central scenario.

强劲的就业数据再次引发通胀担忧，并推高了加息概率；与此同时，美伊紧张局势升级导致美国国债、德国国债和英国国债收益率走高，不过市场对美联储9月加息的预期概率仍维持在60%。

在强劲数据支撑下，沃什就核心个人消费支出（PCE）和利率优先原则所展现的鹰派立场，提高了9月加息的可能性；而英伟达的业绩指引则使AI周期保持完整，不过股市涨幅依然有限，且主要取决于企业盈利情况。

尽管能源成本居高不下，全球采购经理人指数（PMI）仍保持稳定，美国和欧元区的通胀有所缓解，但幅度尚不足以完全消除市场担忧。 

July’s softer inflation leaves a September US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hold as the most probable scenario.

July reinforced our convictions on companies positioned to benefit from artificial intelligence (AI), despite the marked underperformance of US technology stocks at the beginning of the month, as a result of investor concerns about the monetisation of AI-related investments.

US labour data softened, easing pressure on the Fed to hike its interest rates anytime soon.

美联储维持利率不变，但几乎未提供前瞻性指引，导致债券收益率上升，美元走弱。

中东局势不断升级，导致油价飙升，美国长期国债收益率升至2025年初以来的最高水平，原因是通胀风险再度浮现，且市场重新评估了大西洋两岸未来加息的可能性。

美国通胀数据低于预期，缓解了市场对加息的预期，而中东地区冲突的再度升级则导致油价飙升。