瑞联卓见

美联储维持利率不变，但几乎未提供前瞻性指引，导致债券收益率上升，美元走弱。

中东局势不断升级，导致油价飙升，美国长期国债收益率升至2025年初以来的最高水平，原因是通胀风险再度浮现，且市场重新评估了大西洋两岸未来加息的可能性。

美国通胀数据低于预期，缓解了市场对加息的预期，而中东地区冲突的再度升级则导致油价飙升。

The collapse of the ceasefire between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher.

The markets are looking to the future, whilst central banks are looking to the past.

In June, we highlighted a paradox: a demanding macroeconomic environment, yet markets buoyed by exceptional corporate earnings. The mid-year point validates that reading and brings with it a turning point. The recent agreements between the United States and Iran have drawn a line under the energy shock that dominated the first half of the year, and the landscape now opening up is a different one, calling for greater selectivity.

美联储维持利率不变，但几乎未提供前瞻性指引，导致债券收益率上升，美元走弱。

中东局势不断升级，导致油价飙升，美国长期国债收益率升至2025年初以来的最高水平，原因是通胀风险再度浮现，且市场重新评估了大西洋两岸未来加息的可能性。

美国通胀数据低于预期，缓解了市场对加息的预期，而中东地区冲突的再度升级则导致油价飙升。

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been the GCC’s biggest geopolitical shock in decades – but not a credit crisis.

Back in January, the dominant narrative in private credit was that negative headlines pointed to isolated events and a normalisation of flows, not systemic credit stress. Today, the picture is evolving.

The capture of Nicolás Maduro in a US-led operation has seized global attention. Washington has signalled its intention to oversee a transitional phase towards a new governing framework, while hinting at potential involvement by US energy companies in rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Beyond the headlines, what could this mean for the energy, oil and other resources markets, Venezuela’s sovereign debt, and geopolitics more broadly? Our experts delve into the implications.

The markets are looking to the future, whilst central banks are looking to the past.

In an environment marked by the return of inflationary tensions, the rise of AI, and the reshaping of geopolitics, Michaël Lok believes that markets are entering a new cycle.

Short-term gold forecasts have been revised downward, reflecting the repricing of Federal Reserve expectations and the rise in short- and long-term interest rates observed in recent weeks.