新闻中心/瑞联卓见

法国10年期国债收益率已升至5%，与德国国债的利差达到2012年以来未见的水平。法国银行正为此付出代价，尤其是其AT1债券。

油价通常以原油期货价格的形式报价，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）是主要的基准。然而，经济依赖的是柴油、汽油和航空煤油等成品油，而非原油本身，而将原油转化为成品油的成本即为炼油利润，或称“裂解价差”。 将这一价差加到布伦特原油价格上，可以大致反映终端消费者实际支付的价格，据此计算，当前平均价格约为每桶140–180美元。

自美国联邦储备委员会9月加息25个基点以来，金价小幅走低，目前徘徊在每盎司4,150美元左右。

央行理论主张，在供应冲击具有暂时性且通胀尚未持续高于目标水平的前提下，不应直接对此作出反应。 目前，这两个条件均未满足。以个人消费支出（PCE）指数衡量的核心通胀率在8月份达到3.0%，而美伊冲突已持续了六个月以上。

2026年，五大超大规模科技公司（微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta和甲骨文）的资本支出将达到约8200亿美元，而其经营现金流仅为7500亿美元。这意味着它们的投资额超过了可用的现金流，这一资金缺口必须通过举债来填补。

The markets are looking to the future, whilst central banks are looking to the past.

In an environment marked by the return of inflationary tensions, the rise of AI, and the reshaping of geopolitics, Michaël Lok believes that markets are entering a new cycle.

Short-term gold forecasts have been revised downward, reflecting the repricing of Federal Reserve expectations and the rise in short- and long-term interest rates observed in recent weeks.

Events in the Middle East have highlighted a profound shift in market dynamics. The very nature of volatility appears to be changing, requiring management strategies to adapt.

The Swiss franc is once again confirming its status as a major reserve currency, one that is particularly significant at a time when instability in the Middle East is causing major turbulence in global geopolitics. However, the franc’s secular strength has a downside.

With another US regime change operation under way in Iran shortly after the more limited, successful January operation in Venezuela, questions are once again being asked.