新闻中心/瑞联卓见

央行理论主张，在供应冲击具有暂时性且通胀尚未持续高于目标水平的前提下，不应直接对此作出反应。 目前，这两个条件均未满足。以个人消费支出（PCE）指数衡量的核心通胀率在8月份达到3.0%，而美伊冲突已持续了六个月以上。

2026年，五大超大规模科技公司（微软、亚马逊、Alphabet、Meta和甲骨文）的资本支出将达到约8200亿美元，而其经营现金流仅为7500亿美元。这意味着它们的投资额超过了可用的现金流，这一资金缺口必须通过举债来填补。

The markets are looking to the future, whilst central banks are looking to the past.

In an environment marked by the return of inflationary tensions, the rise of AI, and the reshaping of geopolitics, Michaël Lok believes that markets are entering a new cycle.

Short-term gold forecasts have been revised downward, reflecting the repricing of Federal Reserve expectations and the rise in short- and long-term interest rates observed in recent weeks.

Events in the Middle East have highlighted a profound shift in market dynamics. The very nature of volatility appears to be changing, requiring management strategies to adapt.

The Swiss franc is once again confirming its status as a major reserve currency, one that is particularly significant at a time when instability in the Middle East is causing major turbulence in global geopolitics. However, the franc’s secular strength has a downside.

With another US regime change operation under way in Iran shortly after the more limited, successful January operation in Venezuela, questions are once again being asked.

In recent decades, emerging market debt has undergone a remarkable transformation. Tune in to our podcast to uncover why this dynamic asset class deserves your attention, and which segments our experts favour.

Electricity demand is growing after years of stagnation, driven by electrification, reindustrialisation, and artificial intelligence, which are outpacing infrastructure expansion. 

2026 will not reward broad exposure to private markets, rather the deliberate exposure to the right strategies, structures and managers.