News

July’s softer inflation leaves a September US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hold as the most probable scenario.

July reinforced our convictions on companies positioned to benefit from artificial intelligence (AI), despite the marked underperformance of US technology stocks at the beginning of the month, as a result of investor concerns about the monetisation of AI-related investments.

Les données sur l'emploi aux Etats-Unis se sont affaiblies, ce qui a atténué la pression exercée sur la Fed pour qu'elle relève ses taux d'intérêt dans un avenir proche.

La Fed a maintenu ses taux inchangés mais n'a donné que peu d'indications sur sa politique monétaire future, ce qui a entraîné une hausse des rendements obligataires et un affaiblissement du dollar.

L'escalade des tensions au Moyen-Orient a entraîné une flambée des cours du pétrole et propulsé les rendements obligataires américains à long terme à leur plus haut niveau depuis début 2025, alors que les risques d'inflation refaisaient surface et que les marchés réévaluaient la probabilité de futures hausses des taux d'intérêt des deux côtés de l'Atlantique.

L'inflation américaine a surpris à la baisse, tempérant les anticipations de hausse des taux, tandis que la reprise des hostilités au Moyen-Orient a fait flamber les cours du pétrole.

The collapse of the ceasefire between the US and Iran has pushed oil prices higher.

In June, we highlighted a paradox: a demanding macroeconomic environment, yet markets buoyed by exceptional corporate earnings. The mid-year point validates that reading and brings with it a turning point. The recent agreements between the United States and Iran have drawn a line under the energy shock that dominated the first half of the year, and the landscape now opening up is a different one, calling for greater selectivity.

Cooling US employment and easing eurozone inflation are strengthening the case for an extended pause from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) – a supportive backdrop for risk assets.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been the GCC’s biggest geopolitical shock in decades – but not a credit crisis.

A fading energy shock drove developed market rates lower, even as US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation surprised on the upside at 4.07% y/y, with artificial intelligence (AI)-related costs emerging as a new structural source of price pressure.

Global equities rose 1.2%, supported by progress on the US–Iran agreement and lower oil prices.