News

Les données venant du marché du travail américain plaident en faveur de la poursuite de l’assouplissement monétaire de la Réserve fédérale. Ce ne sera pas sans conséquence pour les obligations.

Geneva-based bank Union Bancaire Privee has launched its first office in Riyadh, a significant step in its long-term expansion and highlighting the rising evolution of wealth management needs in Saudi Arabia.

China is positioning itself to become a global leader in technological innovation.

The euro investment-grade (IG) credit market has historically delivered an average annual return of +2.8% since 2005. However, the past five years have proven particularly challenging, with returns stagnating at around 0.0%. This period was marked by a sharp 15% drawdown in 2022, driven by the energy crisis and surging inflation.

The last week of November ended strongly, following a period of market uncertainty. As December gets under way, seasonal patterns point to a firm year-end finish. However, attention is now turning to next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market expectations became markedly more dovish in the final week of November amid growing concerns about the labour market; investors are now pricing in a 25-bp rate cut in December.

Les banques se désengagent du risque, laissant le crédit privé en première ligne.

Despite Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected results and upbeat guidance, investor sentiment remained fragile. A mixture of fatigue and doubts about AI, shifting expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December, and a rise in long-term Japanese yields fuelled sharp swings across equity markets. This week, investors will closely monitor the continuing Russia–Ukraine discussions for signs of an end to the conflict.

Doubts over a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and concerns over the scale and timing of AI-related capex weighed on sentiment, underscoring the fragile market landscape. Now that the US government’s 43-day shutdown has ended, investors are awaiting the delayed September non-farm payrolls report this week. The publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting and Nvidia’s earning report, both on Wednesday, will be also closely scrutinised.

In the US, stronger corporate investment, resilient household spending, and the prospect of monetary easing led us to upgrade our outlook on US growth for 2026. This improved economic momentum reinforces our high-yield bond conviction of 4/5 and reaffirms our positive stance on US equities of 4/5.