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The euro investment-grade (IG) credit market has historically delivered an average annual return of +2.8% since 2005. However, the past five years have proven particularly challenging, with returns stagnating at around 0.0%. This period was marked by a sharp 15% drawdown in 2022, driven by the energy crisis and surging inflation.

The last week of November ended strongly, following a period of market uncertainty. As December gets under way, seasonal patterns point to a firm year-end finish. However, attention is now turning to next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market expectations became markedly more dovish in the final week of November amid growing concerns about the labour market; investors are now pricing in a 25-bp rate cut in December.

Banks are stepping back from risks, leaving private credit at the forefront

Despite Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected results and upbeat guidance, investor sentiment remained fragile. A mixture of fatigue and doubts about AI, shifting expectations for a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December, and a rise in long-term Japanese yields fuelled sharp swings across equity markets. This week, investors will closely monitor the continuing Russia–Ukraine discussions for signs of an end to the conflict.

Nicolas Faller sprach mit Finanz und Wirtschaft über die jüngsten Veränderungen in der Investitionslandschaft, insbesondere auf den Privatmärkten, und darüber, welche Auswirkungen diese in Verbindung mit der einzigartigen wirtschaftlichen Lage der Schweiz auf die Investitionsströme haben.

Doubts over a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and concerns over the scale and timing of AI-related capex weighed on sentiment, underscoring the fragile market landscape. Now that the US government’s 43-day shutdown has ended, investors are awaiting the delayed September non-farm payrolls report this week. The publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting and Nvidia’s earning report, both on Wednesday, will be also closely scrutinised.

Viele Babyboomer befinden sich zurzeit in der Entsparphase ihres finanziellen Lebens. Ihre Prioritäten haben sich vom Vermögensaufbau zur Einkommensstabilität verlagert. Im aktuellen Umfeld messen sie Diversifizierung und regelmässigen Erträgen (beispielsweise aus Kupons) grössere Bedeutung zu. Als Anleger schätzen sie die stabilen Renditen von Anleihen, insbesondere wenn sie mit Volatilitätsmanagement einhergehen, sowie die Diversifizierung, die diese Anlageklasse an sich und besonders Schwellenländeranleihen mit sich bringen.