Tägliche Makro-Analyse

Switzerland: M3 (Sept.): 3.9% y/y (prior: 3.6% revised from 3.5%)

• M1 was up by 6.3% y/y after 6.4% y/y the prior month; M2 was up by 4% y/y (4.1% y/y prior month); time deposits have stabilized after several months of sharp decline.

UK: CPI (Sept.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Energy prices were up by 3.5% m/m after 3.8% m/m the prior month due to rises in fuel and electricity costs. Goods prices were up by 1.2% m/m (1.1% m/m prior month) due rises in clothes; services stayed flat over the month as transport costs declined but recreation prices were on the rise. Yearly trend in services has accelerated to 3.7% y/y after 3.4% y/y prior month.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 3.1% y/y to 3.5% y/y (3.4% y/y expected) and core inflation from 2.6% y/y to 2.8% y/y (as expected).
• The rebound in inflation was expected, and upside risks remain in the pipeline, paving way to the first hike from the BoE in its next meeting in Dec.

UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): 1.5% m/m vs 1.4% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)

• Prices of materials have accelerated over the month (1.5% m/m), while prices of manufacturing goods were moderate and energy prices slightly down.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 6.7% y/y prior month to 8.3% y/y.

UK: PPI Output prices (Sept.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• The monthly rebound in prices was mainly driven by energy prices.
• The yearly trend has accelerated from 3.8% y/y to 4.6% y/y.

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 101.1 (prior: 102.5)

• Business confidence has declined somewhat over the month.

US: Housing starts (Sept.): 1221k vs 1305k expected (prior: 1288k revised from 1275k)

• Housing starts have declined over the month for both single-family houses and multi-family houses.
• Building permits have decreased from 1403 k the prior month to 1400 k; in permits, multi-family houses have slightly increased over the month.

US: Pending home sales (Sept.): -7.3% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Sales have contracted more than expected over the month. All the 4 districts have shown a sharp fall after some stabilization the prior month.

Germany: PPI (Sept.): 1.9% m/m vs 1.6% expected (prior: 1.1%)

• Energy prices were up by 5.8% m/m after 3.2% m/m prior month; prices for basic, capital and consumer goods remained in a 0.1%-0.2% m/m range.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 4.6%b y/y to 6.7% y/y.

Germany: Zew (Oct.): 28.1 vs 30 expected (prior: 34.7)

• Expectations have decreased over the month; sentiment on current situation has improved (index at -35.9 from -47.1 prior month).
• Opinions were fragmented across sectors: views have deteriorated for finance, autos, retail and construction sectors. On the other hand, views have regained for electronics and IT sectors and were less negative for steel.
• Opinions have decreased but remain positive for machines, chemicals and services.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 4.7% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.9%)

• 3-M employment has increased by 102 k after 66 k the prior period.
• Claimant count remained stable at 4.4%, but numbers increased in Sept.; jobless claims increased from 7 k the month prior to 30.3 K.
• Data from labor was better oriented, pointing to some stabilization in unemployment.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 3.7% y/y vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.9%)

• Wage growth has accelerated for manufacturing sector, from 2.5% y/y to 2.6% y/y and in the construction sector.
• Growth has slowed down further for services and retail-hotels over the month.

Switzerland: Trade balance (Sept.): 1.35 Bn CHF (prior: 5.37Bn)

• Real exports were down by 0.1% m/m after -9.7% m/m prior month; real imports were up by 7% m/m after -3.6% m/m prior month.

Poland: Industrial production (Sept.): 17% m/m vs 15% expected (prior: -7.8% revised from -7.5%)

• Production has rebounded in all sectors after prior month’s correction; the rebound was driven by manufacturing (18.5% m/m) and electricity gas (6.9% m/m).

US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 29 vs 31 expected (prior: 32)

• Sentiment in housing has sharply declined and the index was back to its lowest levels seen in 2020 and 2012.
• Opinions on current sales, future sales and prospects have declined from the prior month.
• Rising long-term yields, rising construction costs and weakening consumer confidence have weighed down on thew outlook of the housing sector.

US: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.0%)

• Manufacturing production increased 0.3%, in line with consensus expectations.
• Strength in manufacturing production was broad-based across industries. The largest increases were seen in primary metals, machinery, and electrical equipment. Production in high-technology industries continued to expand at a robust pace, boosted by AI demand.
• These gains more than offset a decline in production of motor vehicles.

US: Import price index (Sept.): 1.1% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.7%)

• Ex petroleum: 0.8% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.8%)
• Import prices were up 8.1% in September (vs 8.2% expected) after 6.7% in August.