Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: Non-farm payrolls (Aug.): 22k vs 75k expected (prior: 79k revised from 73k)

• Past months data were highly revised: data were revised up for July but revised down for June (data were negative: -13 k payrolls) and for May.
• Trend has obviously deteriorated in several sectors, and data were more negative than JOLTS and ADP suggested.
• By sector, payrolls remained negative on construction (3M of contraction), and in manufacturing (4 months of negative data).
• Payrolls have decreased in services from 85 k the prior month to 63k; a still positive momentum in data was seen in payrolls in leisure-hospitality (28K), and resilient data in trade (11K); on the negative, business services (-17k; 4M of contraction) and government sector.
• Wage growth has slowed down: 3.7% y/y after 3.9% y/y prior month, while monthly change remained stable at 0.3% m/m.
• Unemployment rate was up from 4.2% to 4.3%; all alternative measures on unemployment rate have also slightly increased over the month. The impact of lower immigration on labor force seems still difficult to estimate and to recognize in these figures.
• As seen past month, trend in labor has deteriorated and the balance of risks has shifted towards major downside risks from labor, more than from rising trend in inflation. The Fed will cut key rates in Sept., and this will not be a pre-emptive cut, but a cut justified by a below breakeven trend in payrolls.

Germany: Factory orders (July): -2.9% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.2% revised from -1%)

• Factory orders have contracted further over the month, but prior month data have been revised up.
• Orders for consumer goods have rebounded, thanks to autos; orders for intermediate and capital goods sectors have decreased over the month.

Norway: Industrial production (July): 0.4% m/m (prior: -0.1%)

• Manufacturing production was flat over the month after -0.1% m/m.
• Production was up for food, ships/oil platforms and electricity; on the opposite, production was down for mining, chemical and pharma sectors.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Aug.): -39.9 vs -36.5 expected (prior: -32.8)

• Consumer confidence has sharply deteriorated, driven by falling economic outlook over the month.
• Opinions were stable on financial situation and remained positively oriented for future purchases.

UK: Retail sales (July): 0.6% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.9%)

• Sales were strong but data for the prior month were revised down. H1 series in H1 were also revised down on consumption.
• Sales were firm for clothes, household goods and internet sales.

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 30): 237k vs 230k expected (prior: 229k)

• Continuing claims: 1940 k after 1944 k the prior week.

US: ADP Employment change (Aug.): 54k vs 68k expected (prior: 106k revised from 106k)

• A significant slowdown in labor is mentioned by these data; the largest fall is seen in employment in large firms. A marked slowdown in employment is seen in both goods and services sectors for the month under review.
• These data, even still positive, argue even more than the JOLTS survey in favor of a next Fed rate cut.

US: Services PMI (Aug.): 54.5 vs 55.4 expected (prior: 55.7)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month (final data lower than first estimate), but the index remained high, pointing to a still expanding activity in the sector.
• Views remained positive on future business and employment has increased over the month. Momentum remained positive on domestic demand but not on new exports still on a downward trend.
• Prices and costs remained under upward pressures.

US: ISM Services (Aug.): 52 vs 51 expected (prior: 50.1)

• Confidence in services has rebounded over the month; sources of improvement are close to the factors identified in PMI index: better oriented activity, new orders and employment. New export orders came slightly lower.
• Views over prices paid have slightly decreased but the related index remained at a high level compared to past 6 months.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-25): 3.3% q/q vs 2.7% expected (prior: -1.8%)

• As activity has been revised up on Q2, productivity came higher than in first estimate and it offered a large rebound from Q1-25.
• Higher activity and higher hours worked have fuelled strong total incomes growth (up by 4.3%q) but at a slower pace than in Q1-25 (up by 5%q).
• Labor costs came lower: 1%q after 6.9% in Q1(1.6%q in first Q2 estimate).
• The challenge will be to maintain such a high trend in productivity.

US: Trade balance (July): -78.3 bn USD vs -77.9 bn expected (prior: -59.1 bn revised from -60.2 bn)

• Ex oil, the trade deficit has increased from USD 64.3 bn prior month to USD 83.3 bn.
• Exports were up by 0.3% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month); only exports of autos were sustained (2.7% m/m after 1.6% m/m prior month).
• Imports have rebounded, up by 5.6% m/m (-3.6% m/m prior month); the rebound was strong and broad based across sectors; the largest rebound in imports was seen in industrial supplies, as seen past Jan., due to inventory rebuilding.
• Trade figures do not argue in favor of rising tariffs to reduce a deficit.

Eurozone: Retail sales (July): -0.5% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.3%)

• Sales of non-food items were up by 0.2% m/m after 0.6% m/m while other sectors (food, energy) were down.

Sweden: CPI (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to lower monthly inflation (core inflation down by 0.5% m/m); no details by sector were available.
• Yearly trend has accelerated for headline inflation, up to 3.3% y/y from 3.0% y/y the prior month; core inflation has declined from 3.2% y/y to 2.9%.

Switzerland: CPI (Aug.): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0%)

• Prices were down for food, household goods, health and transport-energy; while they rebounded for clothes and education over the month.
• By main sector, prices were flat on goods (-0.4% m/m prior month), down by 0.2% m/m on services (0.2% m/m prior month) and down for energy prices (-0.5% m/m); core inflation was down by 0.1% m/m, as seen the prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 0.2% y/y on headline and at 0.8% y/y after 1.0% y/y prior month for core inflation; while services were up by 1.2% y/y (1.4% y/y prior month), goods (-1.6% y/y) and energy (-7.7% y/y) remained main contributors to disinflation.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Aug.): 2.9% as expected (prior: 2.9%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month; it is probably to see the impact from rising US tariffs, but we noted unemployed has increased in some specific districts.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Jul): 7181k vs 7380k expected (prior: 7357k revised from 7437k)

• US job openings dropped to a 10-month low, signaling a cooling labor market and supporting a 25 bp rate cut in September.
• The decline, led by healthcare, retail, and leisure sectors, suggests companies are growing cautious amid uncertainty over Trump’s trade policies.
• The quits rate held steady at 2%.

US: Factory orders (Jul): -1.3% m/m as expected (prior: -4.8%)

• Factory orders fell, driven by a sharp 9.5% drop in transportation equipment. Nondefense aircraft and parts plunged 32.7%, as foreign buyers likely slowed purchases after April's pre-tariff surge.

US: Durable goods orders (Jul F): -2.8% m/m as expected (prior: -2.8%)

• Durable goods orders continued to decline, reflecting prolonged weakness after firms rushed imports in May to avoid steep US tariffs. Excluding transportation, orders were slightly revised down from 1.1% to 1.0%.

Eurozone: PPI (Jul): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Industrial prices climbed unexpectedly in July, fueled by a 1.5% rebound in energy costs after a 3.3% drop in June. Durable consumer goods rose 0.2% (up from 0.1%), while capital goods held steady with a 0.1% increase.

UK: Services PMI (Aug F): 54.2 vs 53.6 expected (prior: 51.8)

• UK Services PMI was revised upward. The sector showed solid output growth after a sluggish Q2 2025, with new business surging at its fastest pace since September 2024, driven by robust domestic and international demand.
• However, employment fell for the 11th straight month.
• Inflation pressures intensified, with input costs hitting a three-month high and output prices reaching their highest since April.
• Composite PMI was revised upward from 53.0 to 53.5.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Aug F): 50.5 vs 50.7 expected (prior: 51.0)

• Final PMI data shows that the bloc's services sector saw only marginal output growth, hindered by stagnant new orders. Yet, the labor market showed resilience, with job creation reaching its fastest pace since April.
• Inflationary pressures mounted, as input costs hit a three-month high and output prices rose at their quickest rate since March. Business confidence dipped slightly, staying below its long-term average.
• While growth remains modest, the data highlights the euro area's underlying economic resilience.
• Spain led the bloc's growth with a services PMI of 53.2, followed by Italy at 51.5. Germany's services PMI was revised down to 49.3 from 50.1, while France remained in contraction at 49.8, despite hitting a 12-month high.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Aug.): 53 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 49.8)

• Final index has increased slightly less than in the first estimate but remained above the 50 level.
• Opinions have improved on production, orders and inventory rebuilding over the month; on the negative side, input costs and selling prices have increased a lot related to tariffs.

US: ISM Manufacturing (Aug.): 48.7 vs 49 expected (prior: 48)

• The index has regained from the prior month, but slightly less than the consensus.
• Details offered a mixed picture: rising opinions on new orders, exports, inventories and employment; but sentiment has decreased on production and backlog of orders.
• On a more positive note, prices paid came lower than the prior month.
• The two indices PMI-ISM have increased over the month, but were not exactly on the same trend, the PMI index, being more domestic oriented, on a firmer trend.

US: Construction spending (July): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.4%)

• Residential construction was up by 0.1% m/m, while non-residential construction was down by 0.2% m/m.

Eurozone: CPI estimate (Aug.): 2.1% y/y as expected (prior: 2.0%)

• Flash estimate has pointed to a 0.2% m/m inflation change after flat prices in July.
• Energy prices were back under contraction: -0.6% m/m (1.1% m/m prior month) and remained as of the major negative contributor to yearly trend (-1.9% y/y).
• Prices of food were flat over the month, goods up by 0.3% m/m (-2.4% m/m prior month) and services up by 0.3% (1.1% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend remained quite stable for services (3.1% y/y), food (3.2% y/y) and goods (0.8% y/y); core inflation was estimated being up by 2.3% y/y as seen the prior month.
• Nothing here for the ECB to change a status quo on rates.

Italy: PPI (July): 0.6% m/m (prior: 2.2%)

• Yearly trend has declined from 3.9% y/y to 2.4% y/y.