Tägliche Makro-Analyse

Eurozone: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Final inflation data confirmed sustained rise in monthly prices.
• While energy prices were sharply down (-2.3% m/m after -1.4% m/m prior month), services were strongly on the rise (1.4% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month).
• Prices of industrial goods were up by 0.4% m/m after 1.9% m/m prior month. Core inflation was up by 1% m/m as seen in the prior month.
• Yearly trend remained stable on headline inflation (2.2% y/y) but increased further for core inflation (2.7% y/y after 2.4% y/y prior month).
• The ECB should ease further next month but debate among governors will probably increase on inflation pattern given results from core inflation.

US: Housing starts (April): 1361k vs 1364k expected (prior: 1339k revised from 1324k)

• Building permits have decreased from 1481 k the prior month to 1412 k.
• Starts have increased for multifamily houses over the month but decreased further for single-family houses.
• Within permits, the two categories have decreased over the month.
• High interest rates and worries on construction costs due to uncertainties on tariffs have weighed down on final demand.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (May): 50.8 vs 53.4 expected (prior: 52.2)

• Consumer confidence has decreased over the month according to preliminary data.
• Confidence has decreased further on both current situation and expectations. Opinions have decreased on net income, present and future financial situation, business expectations while unemployment remained a concern as seen the prior month.
• Despite weakening sentiment, willingness to buy items (houses, autos) remained stable from the prior month but at weak level.
• Inflation expectations have surged again: from 6.5% y/y prior month to 7.3% y/y at 12M and from 4.4%y/y to 4.6% y/y at 5-10y.

 

France: Unemployment rate (Q1-25): 7.4% as expected (prior: 7.3%)

• Unemployed has increased over the period. The main bulk of the rise is seen in unemployment of women over the period.

 

Italy: CPI (April): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.6%)

• Final data have confirmed some moderation in monthly prices which remained sustained in absolute terms.
• Prices have strongly increased for clothes, transport, and leisure sectors while they decreased for electricity, utility, and communication.
• Yearly trend has marginally declined from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.0% y/y.

 

 

US: Initial jobless claims (May 10): 229k vs 228k expected (prior: 229k revised from 228k)

• Continuing claims: 1881 k after 1872 k prior week.

 

US: Retail sales (April): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.4%)

• Sales have moderated after a large rebound in March due to strong purchases ahead of potential rises in tariffs.
• Building material, autos and sport goods have reverted the most during the month, after strong rises seen in March due to fears of higher tariffs (notably products from China).
• Over the month, sales have contracted for gasoline stations, clothes, sport goods and autos. They remained positive for building material and on eating-drinking.
• Core sales (sales ex autos, building materials, food, and energy) were down by 0.2% m/m after a strong 0.5% m/m the prior month.
• Some slowdown is expected in Q2 consumption after the 1.8 %q/q (saar) seen in Q1-25.

 

US: Empire manufacturing (May): -9.2 vs -8 expected (prior: -8.1)

• Business sentiment was more negative than prior month and more than expected.
• Details offered mixed picture: falling sentiment on current situation but less negative on 6M horizon (6-M index at -2 after -7.4 prior month).
• On current situation, new orders have turned positive, and prices paid were on the rise, while employment and prices received have decreased.
• For the 6-month index, sentiment improved on new orders, shipments, employment but also on prices paid and received.

 

US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): -4 vs -11 expected (prior: -26.4)

• Business sentiment was better oriented after large contraction the prior month.
• Views have improved on current situation and rebounded for the 6-month index (up to 47.2 after 6.9 prior month).
• On current situation, opinions improved for new orders and employment but also for prices paid and received.
• On the 6-month index, views have rebounded for new orders, employment, and capex while opinions decreased on prices.
• On these two regional business sentiment indices, new orders have improved from the prior month.

 

US: Industrial production (April): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Production has increased for utility and energy sectors, but it was down by 0.4% m/m for manufacturing (after 0.4% m/m gain in March).
• Within manufacturing, production was driven lower by autos, computers and apparels d but remained sustained for equipment goods.

 

US: PPI (April): -0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0% revised from -0.4%)

• Prices have decreased more than expected over the month but were revised up for the prior month (due to trade services).
• The decline in prices was largely driven by a large fall in food and a modest decrease on energy and services over the month. PPI ex food, energy, and trade (core PPI) were down by 0.1% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.4% y/y prior month to 2.4% y/y, and from 3.5% to 2.9% y/y for core PPI.

 

US: NAHB housing market index (May): 34 vs 40 expected (prior: 40)

• Index has fallen due to lower present and future sales.

 

US: Business inventories (March): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inventories have increased for wholesalers by 0.4% m/m; total sales were up by 0.7% m/m.

 

UK: Industrial production (March): -0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.5%)

• Industrial activity has decreased for the manufacturing sector (-0.8% m/m after 2.4% m/m prior month) and for energy and mining sectors over the month.
• Within manufacturing, all sectors except investment good was down over the month.

 

UK: GDP (Q1-25): 0.7% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• GDP was higher than expected thanks to investment and net trade.
• Consumption was up by 0.2% q after 0.1% q; investment has strongly rebounded, up by 5.9%q after -1.9% the prior quarter; exports were up by 3.5% q after -1.9% q and net trade contribution to GDP growth was positive despite strong imports,

 

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (April): 0.1% m/m (prior: 0.1%)

• Production prices were up by 0.2% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month), while import prices were flat over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined to -1.8% y/y after -0.9% y/y for import prices while producer prices were flat (0.3% y/y the prior month).

 

Eurozone: Industrial production (March): 2.6% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: 1.1%)

• Production has surged on capital and durable consumer sectors over the month. This may not last and was due to a push in production and exports ahead of tariffs.

 

Eurozone: GDP (Q1-25): 0.3% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• The second estimate (wider number of countries included) has revised GDP growth lower for Q1-25.

 

France: CPI (April): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Prices were higher than expected: rises in services (1.1% m/m due to a strong rise in transport) have contributed to the monthly rise, in parallel with higher food and clothes prices; energy (oil prices) were down over the month.
• Yearly trend remained unchanged at 0.9% y/y from the prior month.

 

Germany: Wholesale price (April): -0.1% m/m (prior: 0.2%)

• Yearly trend has declined from 1.3% y/y prior month to 0.8% y/y.

 

Poland: GDP (Q1-25): 0.7% q/q vs 0.1% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to stronger than expected Q1 GDP growth.

 

Poland: CPI (April): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Final data have confirmed the rebound in prices, driven by food, clothes and leisure sectors. Prices of energy, transport and utility sectors have decreased over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 4.9% y/y prior month to 4.2% y/y.

US: NFIB Small Business optimism (Apr): 95.8 vs 95.0 expected (prior: 97.4)

• Sentiment among US small businesses fell for the fourth consecutive month, driven by worries over the economic outlook and sales prospects amid rising tariffs. Businesses reported declining expectations for conditions, job openings, sales, and capital investment plans.

 

US: CPI (Apr): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• The latest CPI report reveals that goods have yet to show the effects of tariff hikes since February.
• Airfares and hotel prices pulled back, indicating weaker demand for discretionary services. Prices for used cars, trucks, and apparel also declined.
• New car prices remained flat, defying expectations of a tariff-driven increase. However, prices for furniture and appliances, largely imported goods, surged.
• Despite expectations that tariffs would boost inflation, companies may be working through substantial inventory before raising prices.
• Housing costs, which are the largest category within services, picked up to a 0.3% m/m, led by rents.
• Annually, headline inflation slowed from 2.4% to 2.3%, while core inflation held steady at 2.8%.

 

Germany: Zew (May): 25.2 vs 11.3 expected (prior: -14.0)

• Zew survey highlights increasing optimism for the coming six months, fueled by the establishment of a new federal government, advancements in resolving tariff disputes, and indications of stabilizing inflation.
• Nearly all sectors reported enhanced sentiment. The outlook is especially promising for the banking sector and export-driven industries, including automotive, chemicals, metals, machinery, and steel.
• Despite these positive trends, Germany's current economic assessment remains low, slightly declining by 0.8 points to -82.0.

 

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Mar): 4.5% as expected (prior: 4.4%)

• The UK unemployment rate increased to 4.5% in the three months to March 2025, reaching its highest level since mid-2021. This rise comes amid a continued slowdown in wage growth and a decline in job vacancies.
• Regular pay, excluding bonuses, grew by 5.6%, falling short of market expectations of 5.7% and down from 5.9% in the previous period. This marks the lowest wage growth since November 2024, affecting both private and public sectors.