Tägliche Makro-Analyse
Donnerstag, Januar 08
US trade balance narrows to lowest since 2009
US: Initial jobless claims (Jan 3): 208k vs 212k expected (prior: 200k revised from 199k)
- Initial jobless claims edged slightly higher in the week ending January 3, but remain at a low level, while the increase in continuing claims to 1914k (+56k) suggests softer conditions, with laid-off workers taking longer to find new jobs.
US: Trade balance (Oct): -29.4 bn USD vs -58.7 bn expected (prior: -48.1 bn revised from -52.8 bn)
- The trade balance narrowed more than expected, with exports rising 2.6% and imports falling 3.2%.
- Goods exports grew 3.8%, driven entirely by gold, while the sharp drop in imports was led by pharmaceuticals as companies likely frontloaded drug imports in September, anticipating Trump’s tariffs on pharmaceuticals.
US: Nonfarm productivity (3Q P): 4.9% q/q vs 5.0% expected (prior: 4.1% revised from 3.3%)
- Preliminary data show productivity gains eased labor cost pressures, with unit labor costs falling at an annualized rate of 1.9% in Q3.
US: Wholesale inventories (Oct F): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)
- The final estimate met expectations.
Eurozone: Economic confidence (Dec): 96.7 vs 97.1 expected (prior: 97.1 revised from 97.0)
- Economic sentiment in the euro area dipped at year-end, falling from a 31-month high of 97.1. The decline was driven by weaker confidence among consumers (-0.3 points), services (-0.2 points), and retailers (-1.2 points). Industry and construction saw slight gains (+0.3 points each), though both remain at low levels.
- Among the bloc’s largest economies, sentiment dropped in Germany (-1.1), France (-0.9), Italy (-0.6), and Spain (-0.5).
Eurozone: PPI (Nov): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Producer prices rose faster than anticipated in November, driven by a 1.8% surge in energy costs. Excluding energy, industrial prices edged up by just 0.1%.
Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Nov): 6.3% vs 6.4% expected (prior: 6.4%)
- The euro area labor market showed resilience in November, with unemployment edging down as 71k fewer people were jobless. Notable declines came from the periphery, including Italy (-30k), Spain (-19k), and Greece (-14k).
Germany: Factory orders (Nov): 5.6% m/m vs -1.0% expected (prior: 1.6% revised from 1.5%)
- Germany's factory orders jumped in November, posting a third consecutive monthly gain and the fastest growth since December 2024, fueling recovery hopes.
- The rise was led by large-scale orders, though demand still grew by 0.7% excluding them.
Switzerland: CPI (Dec): 0.0% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Swiss consumer prices were flat in December, averaging 0.1% y/y in Q4, aligning with the SNB's December forecast.
- The increase was driven by higher domestic prices (up from 0.4% to 0.5% y/y), while the strong Swiss franc weighed on foreign prices (down from 1.9% to 1.6% y/y).
- We expect the SNB to keep its policy rate at 0% in the coming quarters, with no further rate cuts.
- A return to negative rates would require a sharp deterioration in the inflation outlook, likely triggered by a narrowing rate differential with the ECB and sustained CHF appreciation.
Mittwoch, Januar 07
US: rising confidence in services, but moderate ADP and weak JOLTS surveys.
US: ADP Employment change (Dec.): 41k vs 50k expected (prior: -29k revised from -32k)
- ADP survey turned positive, but fragilities remained in place and data came slightly lower than expected.
- Job creations were centered on medium-sized firms (34 k) and also in services (44 k), thanks to education-health and leisure-hospitality. Other sectors remained depressed and job creations were very limited for large and small firms over the month.
US: Services PMI (Dec.): 54.4 vs 52.2 expected (prior: 52.6)
- Business sentiment has accelerated further in services over the month.
- The improvement from the prior month was broad-based, and major components have regained such as: activity, new orders, inventories and employment.
- Prices paid have decreased over the month, but the index remained at a high level.
US: JOLTS Job Openings (Nov.): 7146k vs 7648k expected (prior: 7449k revised from 7670k)
- Job openings came lower than expected and also lower than the prior month.
- Openings and hirings have decreased over the month, pointing to ongoing lower demand from firms.
- Jobs openings have decreased from the prior month for several major sectors: trade-transport, education-health, and leisure-hospitality as well as the public sector. On the opposite, a rebound was seen in jobs openings for professional business services.
- In parallel, quitters and separations were slightly higher over the month.
US: Factory orders (Oct.): -1.3% m/m vs -1.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Defense orders (-11.3% m/m after 24.3% m/m the prior month) were mainly responsible for the fall in orders; orders for capital goods non-defense and ex aircraft were up by 0.5% m/m after 1.0% m/m the prior month, which remained positive for investment trend.
- Shipments were up by 0.1% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month) and inventories were flat over the month (-0.1% m/m prior month).
Eurozone: CPI estimate (Dec.): 2.0% y/y as expected (prior: 2.1%)
- First estimate has pointed to a 0.2%m/m rise, as expected, in monthly data (-0.3% m/m prior month).
- Energy prices were down by 0.8% m/m and good prices also down by 0.3% m/m, while services have rebounded by 0.7% m/m. Core prices were up by 0.3% m/m after -0.5% m/m the prior month.
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.0% y/y and for core inflation from 2.4% y/y to 2.3% y/y.
France: Consumer confidence (Dec.): 90 as expected (prior: 89)
- Sentiment remained negative on future personal financial situation, but concerns about unemployment has slightly eased.
- Preference for saving has nevertheless increased further over the month.
Germany: Retail sales (Nov.): -0.6% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from -0.3%)
- Sales were heavily down over the month, but data remained volatile offering large revisions to past data.
- Over the month, sales of food, clothes and IT were down while furniture, health and internet sales were positive.
Germany: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)
- Unemployed has increased by 3k after 1k the prior month.
Italy: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Preliminary data pointed to mixed picture: rising prices over the month for transport and leisure, balanced by falling prices for hotels, clothes and food.
- Yearly trend has slightly accelerated from 1.1%y/y to 1.2% y/y.
Dienstag, Januar 06
PMI services: weaker in the US and Eurozone, marginally firmer in the UK
US: Services PMI (Dec.): 52.5 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 54.1)
- Sentiment has decreased in services over the month, but the index remained high.
- Views have moderated on new business and demand was seen as cooling as exports were weak.
- Sentiment has decreased marginally on employment; costs were on the rise due to tariffs and prices have also increased further.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Dec.): 52.4 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 53.6)
- Business sentiment in services has decreased over the month and came lower than in first estimates but the index remained above 50.
- Sentiment has decreased in Germany, France and Italy. New orders have declined in France and related index passed below 50.
- In Spain, sentiment has strongly rebounded (from 55.6 to 57.1) thanks higher new orders.
- Domestic demand was the main driver versus falling new exports; employment has improved while costs have increased significantly.
- Composite index (manufacturing + services) remained above the 50 level for Eurozone, Germany (51.3), France and Spain at 50 for France, pointing to ongoing moderate growth.
France: CPI (Dec.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)
- A strong rebound of prices of fresh food (1.4% m/m) was more than balanced by decreasing prices for manufactured goods (-0.3% m/m) and energy prices (-1.6% m/m) according to this first estimate.
- Yearly trend has declined from 0.8% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y.
Germany: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.5%)
- According to first estimate, prices of clothes, fuels and household goods have decreased over the month while prices of services remained sustained (0.6% m/m).
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.6% y/y the prior month to 2.0% y/y.
UK: Services PMI (Dec.): 51.4 vs 52.1 expected (prior: 51.3)
- Sentiment was marginally up from the prior month, but it remained below expectations.
- Opinions on new business have strongly rebounded (52.4 after 49.8); sentiment on employment remained mixed while costs have increased further.
- Composite index has slightly decreased from 52.1 to 51.4 over the month.
Montag, Januar 05
ISM manufacturing (Dec.) lower than expected and remained below 50
US: ISM Manufacturing (Dec.): 47.9 vs 48.4 expected (prior: 48.2)
- Business confidence came lower than expected and lower than the prior month.
- Details offered a mix picture: sentiment has decreased for production and inventories, but it slightly regained for new orders (from 47.4 to 47.7), backlog of orders and employment.
- While PMI manufacturing has just slightly eased (from 52.2 to 51.8), ISM manufacturing (more export and large firms-oriented index) remained below 50 over the past months, pointing to ongoing fragilities on large exporters in manufacturing.
Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Dec.): 45.8 vs 49.6 expected (prior: 49.7)
- Business sentiment has deteriorated over the month contrary to expectations.
- All major sub-components came lower over the month such as output, prices, inventories and employment; the index was back to its Sept. level.
- Separately, the PMI services has strongly rebounded from 45.3 prior month to 52.1. All major sub-items have rebounded and were above the 50 level, except employment (up from 45.5 to 46.8).
UK: M4 (Nov.): 4.3% y/y (prior: 3.5%)
- M4 growth has accelerated to 0.8% m/m after -0.2% m/m; M4 lending was up by 4.8% y/y after 4.3% y/y prior month.
- Credit to consumer has also accelerated by 8.1% y/y after 7.5% y/y prior month.
- Mortgage approvals were up to 64.5 k after 65 k the prior month.
Turkey: CPI (Dec.): 0.89% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 0.87%)
- Inflation remained sustained over the month, but slightly less than expected by the consensus.
- Prices have re-accelerated for food, communication and hotels-restaurants over the month, but declined for clothes and transport.
- Yearly trend has declined from 31.07% y/y the prior month to 30.89% y/y and for core inflation from 31.65 % y/y to 31.08% y/y.
Dienstag, Dezember 30
US: a rebound in Chicago PMI business sentiment
US: Chicago PMI (Dec.): 43.5 vs 40 expected (prior: 36.3)
- Business sentiment has regained from the prior month and from very low level.
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (Oct.): 1.31% y/y vs 1.10% expected (prior: 1.39% revised from 1.36%)
- Prices were up by 0.32% m/m after 0.17% m/m prior month.
- Over 20 cities, a large range of trend in prices: districts of San Franciso and Chicago were at the top of the rise, and 10 cities offered positive trend in prices.
Spain: CPI (Dec.): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)
- Flash estimates have pointed to stable monthly pace, but the yearly trend has declined from 3.2% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y.
- Lower fuel prices and moderate rise in leisure sectors have underpinned the decline in inflation trend.
Spain: Retail sales (real) (Nov.): 6% y/y (prior: 3.9% revised from 3.8%)
- Sales were up by 1% m/m after 0% m/m the prior month.
- Sales were strong for personal goods, health and in department stores over the month.
Switzerland: KOF (Dec.): 103.4 vs 101.4 expected (prior: 101.7)
- The business sentiment index finished the year at a high level, but in fact close to the index seen in Feb. (103.3).
- Sentiment has improved on production of intermediate goods, while firms remained globally cautious on orders and demand.
Turkey: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 8.6% (prior: 8.5%)
- Unemployed remained on a slow but regular rising trend.