Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: ISM Manufacturing (Feb): 52.4 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 52.6)

• New orders: 55.8 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 57.1)
• Employment: 48.8 vs 48.3 expected (prior: 48.1)
• Prices paid: 70.5 vs 60.0 expected (prior: 59.0)
• The headline index was little changed from January, indicating a second month of growth at one of the highest paces since 2022. New orders remained solid while the gauge on employment slightly improved.
• The main surprise came from the prices paid index which rose back just above the levels seen during last summer, which were the highest since 2022 - and this was ahead of the attacks on Iran.
• If the recent increase in energy prices is sustained, producers may have little choice but to raise their prices.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Feb. F.): 50.8 as expected (prior: 49.5)

• This final release confirms the manufacturing recovery in the eurozone, with the PMI reaching its highest level since June 2022.
• New orders rose to 51 from 49.2 in January.
• The headline index rose to 50 in Spain and just above this threshold in Germany (50.9), France (50.1) and Italy (50.6).

 

Germany: Retail sales (Jan.): -0.9% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 1.2% revised from 0.1%)

• Retail sales unexpectedly declined in January, but December's figures were revised significantly higher.
• Annual growth slowed to 1.2% in January, from 2.5% y/y in December.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Feb. F.): 51.7 vs 52.0 expected (prior: 51.8)

• Revised slightly downward from the flash estimate, but it is still very close to the highest level since mid-2024.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (Feb.): 47.4 vs 49.8 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Unexpected (slight) decline, but the manufacturing PMI remains in the relatively tight range seen since mid-2024.

 

Turkey: GDP (Q4 25): 0.4% q/q vs 1.1% expected (prior: 1.0%)

• GDP y/y: 3.4% vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.8% revised from 3.7%)
• Full-year 2025 growth reached 3.6% after 3.5% in 2024.
• Household spending remained the main driver of growth last year despite high inflation.

 

US: PPI (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.5%)

• Prices have declined for food (-1.5% m/m) and energy (-2.7% m/m), but they were on a sharp rise for trade (2.5% m/m) and warehouses (1.0% m/m) sectors. This could reflect higher tariffs and rising material prices and rise in margins in the sector.
• Core PPI (ex-energy, food and trade sector) was up by 0.3% m/m as seen the prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.0% y/y to 2.9% y/y and from 3.5% to 3.4% y/y on core PPIs.

 

US: Chicago PMI (Feb.): 57.7 vs 52.1 expected (prior: 54)

• Business confidence has strongly rebounded over the month; all major components were on the rise: production, new orders, employment and lower inventories.
• Prices paid were also on the rise over the month.

 

France: Consumer spending (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.6%)

• Spending has rebounded driven by food, clothes and durable goods over the month.
• Energy consumption was heavily down over the month.
• Consumption remained volatile through the months while preference for saving is still important.

 

France: CPI (Feb.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.4%)

• Preliminary data have shown a rebound in prices; this was driven by good prices, up by 1.2% m/m after -1.9% m/m prior month; services were also up by 0.7% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month. Energy prices were up by 0.2% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 1.1% y/y after 0.4% y/y the prior month.

 

France: Producer Prices (Jan.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Yearly trend has declined further from -1.9% y/y prior month to -2.3% y/y.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 6.3% as expected (prior: 6.3%)

• Unemployed has increased by 1 k over the month but the unemployment ratio remained stable over the month.

 

Germany: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Preliminary data have shown higher monthly inflation; prices were firmer for clothes, food, and services while energy prices have contracted over the month.
• Yearly trend has marginally declined from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.0% y/y.

 

Spain: CPI (Feb.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.8%)

• Monthly inflation has rebounded according to preliminary data, and yearly trend has increased from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.5% y/y.

 

Norway: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Unemployment ratio remained stable but non-seasonal data of unemployed has decreased over the month.

 

Norway: Retail sales (Jan.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.7%)

• Sales were up by 4.1% y/y.

 

Sweden: GDP (Q4-25): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 1.1%)

• Growth was firmer than expected thanks to a strong domestic demand; Public consumption (2.3%q) and investment (2.9%q) was the main drivers to growth, thanks to higher machinery, equipment and defense spending.
• Private consumption was also sustained, up by 0.9% q/q. Exports have contracted over the quarter.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (Jan.): 0.1% m/m (prior: -0.6% revised from -0.7%)

• Sales were up by 4.1% y/y after 2.3% y/y prior month.

 

Switzerland: KOF (Feb.): 104.2 vs 103 expected (prior: 103.3 revised from 102.5)

• Business confidence has increased and remained on a strong trend over the past months.

 

Switzerland: GDP (Q4-25): 0.1% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.5%)

• Consumption remained on regular and positive trend, up by 0.4% q as seen in Q3.
• Capex was strong, up by 0.7%q; construction was up by 1%q and equipment-software spending up by 0.6%q.
• Exports were up by 0.6% (1.1% in Q3) and imports up by 1.7% q (1.4% in Q3).

 

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Feb.): -19 vs -15 expected (prior: -16)

• Consumer confidence has decreased over the month; opinions on future economy remained stable but views have deteriorated on financial situation over the month.
• Willingness to buy items has decreased over the month.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (Jan.): 8.1% vs 7.7% expected (prior: 7.8%)

• Unemployed has rebounded from the prior month; unemployed has increased while labor force has declined over the month.

US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.21): 212k vs 216k expected (prior: 208k revised from 206k)

• Continuing claims: 1833 k after 1864 k prior week.

 

Eurozone: M3 (Jan.): 3.3% y/y vs 2.9% expected (prior: 2.8%)

• Monetary aggregates and credit have accelerated entering 2026.
• M2 was up by 3.4% y/y (3.1% y/y prior month) and M1 up by 5.3% y/y (4.7% y/y prior month).
• Credit to private sector has increased by 3.0% y/y after 2.9% y/y prior month.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 97.4 vs 97 expected (prior: 96.8)

• Consumer sentiment has increased on higher expectations in future economy, more positive personal financial situation.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Feb.): 88.5 vs 89.6 expected (prior: 89.2)

• Business confidence has slightly decreased in manufacturing and in services; on the opposite, it has regained for construction and retail sectors.
• While business sentiment index remains on stable level past months, consumer confidence has shown a rebuilding trend.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Feb.): 97.7 (prior: 103.4 revised from 103.6)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month after large rebound at year end.
• Sentiment has increased in construction but weakened in services.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 96.3 vs 95.5 expected (prior: 95 revised from 95.3)

• Consumer sentiment has improved on both macro and personal levels over the month.

 

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Feb.): -7.1 vs -6.2 expected (prior: -6.8)

• Business confidence has decreased over the month, contrary to consensus expectations.
• Opinions remained stable on production and orders but weakened on employment while inventories were on the rise.
• Selling prices were on the rise over the month.

 

Eurozone: Services confidence (Feb.): 5 vs 7.4 expected (prior: 6.8 revised from 7.2)

• Confidence has decreased over the month in services; opinions declined on current situation and future demand; confidence has also decreased in construction sector.
• The service and industrial business confidence came lower than the prior month and were also more cautious than the PMI indices.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Feb.): -12.2 as expected (prior: -12.4)

• Consumer confidence was marginally better than the prior month.
• Opinions were less negative on financial situation and economic outlook, but households remained concerned by unemployment.
• They were cautious on future purchases, and over the trend in prices, while preference for saving has increased again.

Eurozone: CPI (Jan.): -0.6% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Inflation was confirmed lower over the month; only minor changes at the sector level were seen from the first estimates.
• Food prices were up by 0.7% m/m after 0% the prior month; prices of energy were up by 0.8% m/m after -0.9% m/m the prior month.
• Services were down by 0.4% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month) and those of goods down by 2.4% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month).
• The yearly trend has been confirmed at 1.7% y/y after 2.0% y/y prior month and core inflation at 2.2% y/y after 2.3% y/y. Services (3.2% y/y) and food prices (2.6% y/y) remain the main drivers of the yearly trend.

 

France: Consumer confidence (Feb.): 91 vs 90 expected (prior: 90)

• Consumer sentiment has slightly gained from the prior month.
• Opinions were less negative on financial situation and standard of living; concerns have increased on unemployment and preferences for saving have increased further.

 

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (March): -24.7 vs -23 expected (prior: -24.2 revised from -24.1)

• Consumer confidence has deteriorated over the month; expectations on future business have decreased, while willingness to buy has decreased and preference for saving has increased.

 

Germany: GDP (Q4-25): 0.3% q/q as expected (prior: 0%)

• First estimate was confirmed pointing to firmer growth at year end.
• Consumer has rebounded by 0.5%q after being flat in Q3-25. Public consumption was very strong up by 1.1%q (0.6%q in Q3).
• Investment was up by 1.0 %q (0.3%q in Q3), but the rebound was driven by construction while equipment was up by a modest 0.1%q.
• Exports were down by 0.6%q and imports also down by 0.3%q.
• Monthly indicators have turned more positive in early 2026, notably in industry, and pointed in favor of a broader growth across sectors which will fuel another 0.3%q GDP rebound expected in Q1-26 growth.

 

Spain: PPI (Jan.): 0.5% m/m (prior: 0.4%)

• Prices were more sustained over the month for energy, mining and industrial and durable consumer goods.
• Yearly trend remained negative at -2.9% y/y (-3% y/y the prior month), due a still large fall in energy prices (-10% y/y).