Tägliche Makro-Analyse

Eurozone: Economic confidence (Jun): 95.0 vs 94.3 expected (prior: 93.7 revised from 93.5)

• Eurozone confidence nudged higher in June, with the Economic Sentiment Indicator rising for a second month to 95.0, up from April’s five-year low and beating expectations of 94.3. The improvement comes as firms and households take stock of the fallout from the Iran war while US-Iran peace talks rumble on.
• Services strengthened (3.2, from 2.6), retail sentiment improved (−9.7, from −10.9) and consumers were less downbeat (−17.7, from −19.0). Manufacturers’ morale edged up (−7.7, from −7.9), but construction slipped (−4.5, from −3.9).
• Price pressures look softer. Consumer inflation expectations dropped sharply to 34.0 from 40.4, and manufacturers’ selling price expectations eased to 22.3 from 26.7.

Spain: CPI (Jun): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Spain’s inflation stayed above the ECB’s 2% target. Headline inflation held at 3.6% year on year in June, unchanged from May. Rising electricity and natural-gas costs drove the increase, though lower gasoline prices helped cap the gains.
• Spain is the first major euro-zone economy to report inflation data since the ECB’s recent rate hike. The other big economies will publish figures on Tuesday, and the euro area’s aggregate reading is due Wednesday. Analysts expect a slight cooling to 3.0% from 3.2% for the bloc.

US: Trade balance (May): -105.8 bn USD vs -85.0 bn expected (prior: -83.0 bn revised from -82.2 bn)

• America’s trade deficit widened unexpectedly to its largest in more than a year, as exports slipped, and imports climbed.
• Weaker oil prices and a 5.4% drop in goods exports dragged outbound shipments lower. Meanwhile, a surge of equipment for the country’s data‑center buildout lifted imports.
• Capital-goods purchases, covering computers and peripherals, semiconductors and telecommunications gear, continued to soar, up 42% year on year.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Jun F): 49.5 vs 50.0 expected (prior: 48.9)

• American consumers are more upbeat about the outlook than expected, according to the final reading of consumer sentiment. The headline index climbed from 44.8 to 49.5, though still subdued by historical standards.
• Confidence rose among both Democrats and Republicans, which coincides with easing oil prices.

US: Personal income (May): 0.7% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.0%)

• Household incomes rose more than expected, lifted by a modest upturn in wage growth, in line with hiring in recent months. Larger-than-usual tax refunds and a supportive wealth effect added impetus, while the BEA flagged a sharp increase in payments to farmers.
• That income tailwind fed through to spending. Personal consumption beat forecasts, rising 0.7% month on month (0.6% expected). Even after inflation, spending advanced 0.3% (0.2% expected), with a notable acceleration in goods outlays while services held steady.
• The personal saving rate was unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting households, buoyed by asset gains and refunds, are doing little in the way of precautionary saving.

US: Core PCE deflator (May): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

• The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge matched expectations, rising 3.4% year on year. Services remained the chief driver and quickened from 0.2% to 0.6% month on month, led by financial, communication and transportation services.
• By contrast, durables (and especially furnishings and household equipment) slowed sharply from 0.6% to 0.0%, suggesting the earlier tariff impulse may be fading or that consumers are pushing back against pass-through of rising costs.
• Looking ahead, portfolio‑management fees, which follow equity markets with a lag, are likely to lift inflation in the near term before easing as stock gains cool. Jet‑fuel prices have also retreated from their peak, reducing pressure on airfares.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jun 20): 215k vs 225k expected (prior: 227k revised from 226k)

• Applications for unemployment benefits remain low, reinforcing signs that the labour market is stabilizing. Taken together with the latest ADP readings, the data bode well for June payrolls.

US: Durable goods orders (May P): -4.5% m/m vs -5.0% expected (prior: 8.5% revised from 8.0%)

• Headline orders fell by less than expected as a prior-month surge in aircraft reversed.
• Strip out transportation, and orders rose 1.3%; core capital goods (non-defense, ex‑aircraft) climbed 1.6%. Taken together, the figures point to robust investment in the second quarter.

US: New home sales (May): 580k vs 640k expected (prior: 626k revised from 622k)

• New-home sales slumped in May, undershooting every forecast as mortgage rates stayed high and heavy discounts failed to propel demand.

Germany: IFO (Jun): 85.6 vs 85.5 expected (prior: 85.0 revised from 84.9)

• Germany’s Ifo business climate index rebounded in June to levels last seen before the Iran-related flare‑ups, a contrast with yesterday’s PMI reading, which slipped to an 18‑month low.
• The Ifo remains depressed by historical standards, but the improvement offers a measure of reassurance that the economy may narrowly avoid contraction in the second quarter.
• Firms are marking up their assessments of current conditions and, to a lesser extent, their expectations. The outlook component should strengthen further as falling energy prices feed through, helped by reports of progress in US‑Iran peace talks.
• Sentiment improved across all major sectors, including manufacturing and services, underscoring a broad, if still fragile, turn in business morale.