Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept. 12): 196k vs 207k expected (prior: 206k)

• Continuing claims: 1730 k after 1769 k prior week.

US: Housing starts (Aug.): 1275k vs 1320k expected (prior: 1309k revised from 1239k)

• Building permits have decreased from 1433 k the prior month to 1394 k.
• Housing starts have declined over the month for multi-family houses while data for single-family houses have rebounded.
• Building permits have decreased in the two sectors.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (Sept.): 37.8 vs 32.1 expected (prior: 47.4)

• Business confidence has decreased after a large rebound the prior month.
• Opinions have decreased on current conditions on new orders and employment while prices remained on a sharp rise.
• The 6-month index has also decreased over the month, driven lower by new orders and shipments; contrary to current conditions, prices and employment were positively oriented.

US: Pending home sales (Aug.): 0.3% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -2.6% revised from -2.3%)

• Sales were modestly up but with a large contrast across districts: Northeast and Midwest districts have contracted further while South and West districts have rebounded over the month.

Switzerland: Trade balance (Aug.): 5.61 Bn CHF (prior: 8.09 Bn)

• Real exports were down by 8.6% m/m after 11.2% m/m the prior month; real imports were down by 3.1% m/m after -1.5% m/m the prior month.

Eurozone: CPI (Aug.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly rebound in inflation.
• Energy prices were mainly responsible for this, being up by 2.9% m/m after 2.7% m/m prior month.
• Good prices were up by 0.6% m/m after -2.2% m/m prior month, while services remained flat.
• Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after being flat the prior month; once again, these data confirmed no passthrough from energy to other major sectors.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.9% y/y prior month to 3.2 % y/y (3.3% in first estimate), and core inflation has slightly declined from 2.5% to 2.4% y/y.

UK: BoE maintained key rates at 3.75% as expected.

• The bank voted by majority of 6-3 in favor of stable rates. Nevertheless, risks on inflation have increased due to the crisis on the Middle East, rising commodity prices and already high inflation.
• As seen in other central banks comments, the BoE mentioned the longer the conflict lasts, the probability of higher passthrough from energy to domestic prices and wages increases. In parallel, activity was stronger than expected and labor remained in a soft spot.
• The bank mentioned it is ready to hike in the face of energy pressures and higher inflation, opening the door to a rate hike in next November or December meeting. 
• The bank has reduced its QT program and changed the process in favor of a multi year mechanism.

US: Retail sales (Aug.): 1.2% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.6%)

• Sales were stronger than expected; all major sectors have rebounded over the month. Gasoil sales were stronger, but also reflecting higher prices, while sales via internet, restaurants and autos sales were also higher.
• Core sales (excluding food, gasoline, autos and building materials) were up by 1.4% m/m after -0.4% m/m the prior month.
• Despite weakening confidence and worries about inflation, consumption remained sustained.

US: NAHB housing market index (Sept.): 32 vs 34 expected (prior: 35)

• Confidence in housing remained on a weakening trend after the rebound seen in May-June.
• Over the month, opinions about current and future sales have decreased.

US: Business inventories (July): 0.8% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0%)

• Inventories have increased by 0.8% m/m for manufacturers and up by 0.8% m/m in retailers.
• Total sales were up by 0.3% m/m.

Eurozone: Industrial production (July): -0.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)

• Industrial activity has sharply decreased due to large fall in non-durable consumer goods (-1.6% m/m after 1.8% m/m prior month).
• Other sectors have shown a monthly rise in a decent 0.5%-0.9% m/m.

Italy: CPI (Aug.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: -0.9%)

• Prices of clothes have sharply decreased over the month and prices of hotels-restaurants also decreased.
• Costs of energy, transport and communication were on the rise.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.7% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 8.9% vs 8.6% expected (prior: 8.6%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month.

UK: CPI (Aug.): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• The monthly rebound was due to rising energy prices (3.8% m/m after 1.9% m/m prior month), transport and food.
• Prices of holidays and autos were down over the month. Services were up by 0.2% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• As seen prior month, there is no obvious spillover form energy to core inflation
• Yearly trend has accelerated as expected to 3.1% y/y from 2.9% y/y prior month; core inflation remained stable at 2.6% y/y.

UK: PPI Input prices (Aug.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -1.7%)

• Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 5.8% y/y prior month to 6.1% y/y.

UK: PPI Output prices (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

• The monthly rebound has been driven by costs of energy.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.3% y/y prior month to 3.7% y/y.

US: NY Empire manufacturing (Sept.): 7.6 vs 15 expected (prior: 20.6)

• Business sentiment has decreased from the prior month on both current conditions and 6-month views.
• Opinions have decreased about new orders and shipments for both; on current conditions, employees were on the rise and prices aid and prices received have increased further.
• The 6-month index has also decreased on key components but diverged on prices: lower prices received but higher prices paid.
• Despite the decrease in the 6-month views, it remained at high level compared to the 2022-2026 period.

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (July): 4.9% as expected (prior: 4.9%)

• Claimant count was up to 4.4% after 4.3% prior month.
• Over the 3-month period, employment has decreased from 84 k prior period to 66 k and unemployed has slightly increased; unemployed over 12M have increased the most over the 3-month period.
• Over this period, self-employed and part-time workers have decreased the most.
• Payrolls (Aug. data) have decreased by 26 k after -19 k prior month; jobless claims have rebounded by 27.8 k over the month after -11.8k prior month.
• Vacancies remained on a decreasing trend.
• Labor remained on weak trend and continues to deteriorate.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (July): 3.9% y/y as expected (prior: 4.2% revised from 4.1%)

• Wage growth remained on a downward trend; disparities have increased further across sectors.
• Wage growth in public sector has accelerated by 6.6% y/y while in services the growth was only up by 4.2 % (4.5% y/y prior month).

France: CPI (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Final data confirmed monthly rebound, but just below expectations.
• Prices have increased for clothes, food, and energy (3.4% m/m after 2.3% m/m prior month) over the month.
• Services were down by 0.1% m/m thanks to a fall in transport costs.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.6% y/y.

Germany: Zew (Sept.): 34.7 vs 40 expected (prior: 34.2)

• Sentiment (business expectations) within financial community has increased, but less than expected.
• Views on current conditions have sharply rebounded over the month.
• By sector, views have improved for banks, retail, services, IT, and chemical sectors, but decreased for steel, electronics and construction.

Spain: CPI (Aug.): 0.7% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0%)

• Final data pointed to higher inflation over the month than estimated.
• Prices have sharply increased for transport, housing and recreation sectors, while they declined for clothes over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.9% y/y prior month to 4.6% y/y.

Poland: CPI (Aug.): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Final data on inflation pointed to a lower monthly rebound than expected.
• Prices have rebounded for energy, transport and leisure sectors, while they declined for food over the month.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.

Sweden: CPI (Aug.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly fall of inflation; prices were down for culture-leisure but up for clothes and utilities.
• Core inflation was down by 0.5% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend in headline inflation remained stable at 0.7% y/y and core inflation came down to 0.5% y/y after 0.6% y/y.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Aug.): 0.7% m/m (prior: -0.1%)

• Import prices were up by 1.9% m/m (-0.6% m/m prior month) and producer prices up by 0.2% m/m (flat the prior month).
• Yearly trend has rebounded on import prices (from -1.5% y/y to 0.8% y/y), while trend in producer prices remained negative (-1.3% y/y after -2.3% y/y prior month).