Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (July): 2.47% y/y vs 2.20% expected (prior: 2.15% revised from 2.10%)

• Prices were up by 0.32% m/m after 0.26% m/m the prior month.
• Prices across cities offered large dispersion from -4.72% y/y in Las Vegas to 8.59% y/y in New York.

US: Consumer confidence (CB) (Sept.): 81.9 vs 89 expected (prior: 88.6 revised from 89.4)

• Confidence has decreased over the month. Opinions have decreased about current situation and 6-M expectations have sharply declined from prior month. This decline was driven by falling sentiment about future economy and rising unemployment.
• Views have turned more pessimistic about job market on current conditions.
• The 6-M average inflation has increased from 5.8% to 6.1% y/y.
• Willingness to buy autos, houses and large items has decreased over the month, and remained on a decreasing trend since June.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (Aug.): 7079k vs 7228k expected (prior: 7335k revised from 7271k)

• Demand for jobs has decreased more than expected.
• The demand remained volatile, with large disparities across sectors: a higher demand was seen in trade-transport and leisure-hospitality sectors over the month while it decreased for business services, education-health and government.
• Separations, quits and layoffs came slightly lower than the prior month.
• Data remained volatile but the picture of a labor with low hirings-low layoffs remained in place.

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Sept.): -3.8 vs -4.7 expected (prior: -5.0 revised from -5.3)

• Business confidence has improved from the prior month; views were more positive on production and less negative about new orders and exports.
• Selling prices remained on a strong rising trend.

Eurozone: Services confidence (Sept.): 6.1 vs 6.5 expected (prior: 5.6 revised from 5.8)

• Business confidence has increased from the prior month but less than expected.
• Opinions have increased about current demand but weakened about future demand and employment.
• Views have decreased on selling prices from the prior month, probably reflecting limit to rises and a higher competition as seen in PMIs.
• Views have decreased from the retail sector but were stable in construction.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Sept.): -16.5 as expected (prior: -15.5)

• Consumer confidence has decreased from the prior month.
• Opinions have sharply deteriorated on financial conditions, and views have decreased on global economic situation and future purchases.
• Inflation trend is seen rising further and preference for saving has re-accelerated over the month.

Italy: PPI (Aug.): 3.1% m/m (prior: 3.0%)

• Yearly trend has re-accelerated from 9.3% y/y prior month to 13.5% y/y.

Spain: CPI (Sept.): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Preliminary data pointed to sustained monthly inflation due to energy prices. No details by sector were available.
• Yearly trend has rebounded to 5% y/y after 4.6% y/y the prior month.

Spain: Retail sales (real) (Aug.): -0.4% y/y (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.3%)

• Sales remained under contraction on real terms on a yearly basis.
• Sales were up by 0.3% m/m, driven by household goods and internet sales.
• The yearly trend was sharply negative for gasoline, while it was up by 2.5-2.9% y/y for household goods and internet sales.

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 102.2 (prior: 98.4 revised from 98)

• Consumer confidence has rebounded over the month; opinions have improved on both the macro situation and personal situation.

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Sept.): 106.3 (prior: 106.5 revised from 107.1)

• Opinions have slightly decreased over the month in manufacturing while they regained in the construction sector.

Switzerland: KOF (Sept.): 109.1 vs 106 expected (prior: 107.5 revised from 106.7)

• Business sentiment has strongly regained, and prior month data were significantly revised up.
• The index was back to the high levels seen in 2021 and 2017.

UK: M4 (Aug.): 4.4% y/y (prior: 4.3%)

• M4 was up by 0.4% m/m after -0.3% m/m the prior month.
• M4 lending growth has slowed down to 6.5% y/y after 7.2% y/y the prior month.
• Credit to consumers was up by 9.6% y/y after 9.3% y/y prior month, but mortgage approvals has moderated to 54.9 k after 55.9 k the prior month.

US: Durable goods orders (Aug.): 0% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 1.1%)

• Orders were flat over the month due to falling orders for defense and civil aircraft orders. On the opposite, core orders (orders for capital goods nondefense ex aircraft) were up by 1.6% m/m after 0.6% m/m the prior month.
• Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month) but were up by 0.6% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month) for core orders.
• Inventories were up by 0.5% m/m for both total and core orders.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Sept.): 48.1 vs 47.5 expected (prior: 51.7)

• Consumer confidence has decreased from the prior month, but less than expected in the first estimate.
• Views on current conditions have decreased (index at 50.9 after 51.9 prior month), and expectations have also decreased (from 51.5 to 46.3), but less than initially estimated.
• Sentiment has decreased on financial situation, on both current and future economic conditions, and inflation expectations have increased.
• Fears regarding rising unemployment have increased as well as expectations of higher interest rates and gasoline prices.
• Willingness to buy autos and houses have decreased but remained positive on other items.
• 12M inflation expectations have increased from 4% prior month to 4.6% y/y and 5-10Y inflation expectations have increased from 3.3% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -30.6 vs -27.2 expected (prior: -26.8 revised from -26.6)

• Consumer confidence has deteriorated more than expected over the month. Worries have increased about inflation and net income, while preference for saving has regained.
• The index was back to the level seen past May 2026.

Eurozone: M3 (Aug.): 3.5% y/y as expected (prior: 3.4%)

• M1 growth has slowed down from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.9% y/y as well as M2 growth from 3.3% to 3.2% y/y.
• On the opposite, trend in credit to the private sector has accelerated to 3.6% y/y from 3.4% y/y the prior month.
• Despite rising interest rates, the credit cycle remains sustained.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Sept.): -13 vs -16 expected (prior: -14)

• Consumer confidence was slightly less negative than expected and the prior month.
• Views were less negative about economic situation and even more positive about future personal financial situation.

US: Initial jobless claims (Sept.19): 197k vs 200k expected (prior: 198k revised from 196k)

• Continuing claims: 1719 k after 1717 k prior week.

US: New home sales (Aug.): 684k vs 616k expected (prior: 643k revised from 607k)

• Sales were firmer in the Midwest and South districts while they declined further for Northeast and West districts.
• Inventories have declined over the month.
• Average prices of houses sold have decreased by 9% m/m.

France: Consumer confidence (Sept.): 86 vs 85 expected (prior: 86)

• Consumer confidence remained surprisingly stable.
• Opinions were less negative on economy, unemployment and prices but worries remained on personal financial situation.
• As the economic outlook looks fragile, it is possible to see weakening confidence next months.

France: Business confidence (Sept.): 96 vs 98 expected (prior: 98)

• Confidence in the manufacturing sector remained stable over the month.
• Total confidence has weakened on total orders due to falling domestic orders.
• Prices were on the rise.
• In parallel, confidence has slightly decreased in services and retail sectors.

Germany: IFO (Sept.): 89.9 vs 89 expected (prior: 88.8)

• Business confidence has gained further on current conditions (index from 88.5 prior month to 89.5) and expectations have increased further (index at 90.4 after 89).
• By sector, confidence was less negative over the month for manufacturing, trade and construction, and the index has turned positive for services.

Spain: PPI (Aug.): 2.9% m/m (prior: 3.1% revised from 3%)

• Prices remained on a sustained trend over the month due to further rises in energy, basic metals and electronic equipment.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 9.4% y/y prior month to 13.2% y/y.

Norway: The central bank has increased its key rates by 25 bp to 4.50% as expected.

• The bank mentioned it is necessary to maintain a high level of rates due to inflation and it is prepared to hike gain to bring inflation back to 2%.

Switzerland: The SNB left key rates unchanged at 0%, as expected.

• The bank reiterated its willingness to stay active in the FX market if necessary.
• The bank has revised up its inflation forecasts (0.7% in 2026, 0.8% in 2027 and 2028); upside risks remained due to energy and uncertainties in the Middle East. Inflation is expected to rise further next months and to reach 1.2%y/y in Q4-2026 and in Q1-2027.
• Growth is expected in a 1.5%-2% range in 2026, after strong results seen in H1-26, and to stay around 1.5% in 2027.
• The current monetary policy looks appropriate according to the SNB.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 57 vs 53.7 expected (prior: 53.9)

• Flash estimate has pointed to a strong rebound in business confidence. The monthly improvement was broad based across major components.
• Sentiment has rebounded on production, new orders, mainly driven by the domestic demand, while export orders have decreased. Employment has also regained.
• Costs have increased, but at a slower pace than in past quarter, but selling prices remained on the rise.

US: Services PMI (Sept.): 58.7 vs 55.8 expected (prior: 56.5)

• Flash estimate pointed to a surge in confidence in services and the index is back to the highest levels seen recently.
• Activity was firmer, with higher new orders, driven by domestic demand and also some improvement on the export side.
• Employment has also strongly increased, while costs remained on the rise.
• Selling prices have increased further rapidly but rising competition has limited the move.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 52.7 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 52.7)

• Flash estimate for business confidence remained stable over the month.
• New orders have slightly increased from the prior month and activity was sustained and broad-based across countries.  New export orders have improved.
• Employment remained stable while costs and prices have accelerated further.
• Confidence has slightly decreased for France (from 51.1 prior month to 50.3) and Germany (from 54.3 to 53.8).

Eurozone: Services PMI (Sept.): 53 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 51.6)

• Flash estimate for services has strongly rebounded over the month.
• New business has strongly regained from the prior month, and notably for France (at 50.8 from 47.1) and Germany (from 51.3 to 53.3).
• Activity was strong but exports remained weak. Employment has also increased over the month.
• Costs and prices have sharply increased over the month.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Sept.): 52 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.7)

• Flash estimate on business confidence has shown further rebound in manufacturing. New business has increased from the prior month and production was firmer thanks to AI and defense sectors. Consumer demand remained weak.
• Employment was lower due to rising operating costs.
• Prices have increased further in parallel with higher costs.

UK: Services PMI (Sept.): 51.7 vs 52 expected (prior: 52.5)

• Flash estimate for services has decreased from the prior month; the loss of momentum has been confirmed by lower new orders (49.5 after 50.7).
• Domestic demand remained subdued, and geopolitics was a concern.
• Exports have decreased, driven by lower demand from EU.
• Employment was on a modest rise, but costs have increased further. Prices have accelerated in parallel with rising costs.

Poland: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 5.8% as expected (prior: 5.8%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month, but the ratio remained stable.