Tägliche Makro-Analyse

Germany: CPI (Aug.): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Preliminary inflation has pointed to a limited monthly rise, slightly below expectations.
• According to preliminary data, the monthly inflation was mainly driven up by energy and transport, and also clothes, and education.
• The yearly trend was up by 2.9% y/y after 2.8% y/y prior month.

 

Poland: CPI (Aug.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.8%)

• Preliminary inflation pointed to a sharp monthly rise due to higher oil prices, up by 5.2% m/m.
• Yearly trend has accelerated to 3.4% y/y after 3.0% y/y the prior month.

 

Poland: GDP (Q2-26): 1% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Domestic demand was stronger over the quarter; consumption was up by 0.8%q and capex up by 3.7%q; exports and imports were both more dynamic over the quarter.

 

Turkey: Unemployment rate (July): 8.1% (prior: 7.6%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month, while employed and labor force have decreased.

 

Turkey: GDP (Q2-26): 1.1% q/q vs 1.0% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• Growth has accelerated over the quarter on firmer domestic demand.

US: Chicago PMI (Aug.): 47.1 vs 57.9 expected (prior: 57.6)

• Business sentiment has sharply decreased over the month and the index passed below 50 after a peak in confidence seen in May.
• Opinions have decreased on new orders, production while prices paid have increased further.

 

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Aug.): 51.7 vs 51 expected (prior: 55.2)

• Final data have confirmed the decline in consumer confidence from the prior month, but at a slower pace than initially estimated.
• Sentiment on current situation has less declined than initially estimated as well as expectations.
• Sentiment has decreased on household financial conditions, with less favorable outlook on income, lower business expectations and renewed concerns on unemployment.
• Rates and gasoline prices are expected to rise in the future; sentiment was more cautious about large purchases (autos and houses).
• Inflation expectations at 12M have decreased from 4.2% prior month to 4.0%, while the 5-10y inflation expectations remained stable at 3.3%.

 

France: CPI (Aug.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.7% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Preliminary data have shown inflation reaccelerating more than expected in Aug.
• Fresh food prices (2.8% m/m) and energy prices (3.4% m/m) were responsible for the rebound in prices; prices of goods were up by 1.7% m/m while services remained flat over the month.
• Yeary trend has rebounded from 2.4% y/y prior month to 2.7% y/y.

 

France: Consumer spending (July): 0.5% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)

• Spending was better than expected but mainly driven by autos and higher energy bill over the month.

 

France: GDP (Q2-26): 0% q/q vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Growth estimated has been sharply revised down (from 0.2% to 0%).
• Consumption was up by 0.3%q and public consumption up by 0.4%q; investment was up by just 0.1%q, with 0.1%q in equipment, but a sharp decline in public investment (-1.1%q) and in construction (-0.4%q).
• Net exports were positive, contributing by 0.6 pp to GDP, while inventories were down and have contributed by -0.7 pp to GDP.

 

Germany: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 6.4% as expected (prior: 6.4%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month, up by 4 k after 6 k the prior month.

 

Italy: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 94.5 vs 94.6 expected (prior: 94.2)

• Consumer confidence has slightly increased over the month, driven by improving future economic situation.

 

Italy: Manufacturing confidence (Aug.): 89.9 vs 90 expected (prior: 89.7 revised from 89.6)

• Business confidence has marginally increased over the month.
• In parallel, confidence has also regained in construction and service sectors.

 

Spain: CPI (Aug.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.8% expected (prior: 0%)

• Preliminary data pointed to higher inflation, but monthly changes remained below consensus expectations.
• No details were available, but energy prices were the driver of this monthly rebound.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.9% y/y prior month to 4.5% y/y.

 

Spain: Retail sales (real) (July): -0.3% y/y (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

• Sales have contracted over the month by 0.9% m/m due to falling gasoline stations and other sectors, except household goods.

 

Eurozone: Industrial confidence (Aug.): -5.3 vs -5.1 expected (prior: -6.1)

• Business confidence has improved over the month, but slightly less than expected.
• Opinions have improved on future production and employment but decreased for new orders and exports.
• Selling prices have decreased over the month.

 

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Aug.): -15.5 as expected (prior: -15.9)

• Consumer confidence has slightly improved over the month.
• Views were less negative about financial situation and unemployment while preference for saving has increased again.

 

Eurozone: Services confidence (Aug.): 5.8 vs 4.9 expected (prior: 5.1 revised from 4.7)

• Opinions have improved driven by higher activity and rising current and future demand; employment has increased, but prices have also strongly increased over the month.
• Opinions have slightly increased in retail and construction sectors over the month.

 

Norway: Retail sales (July): -0.7% m/m (prior: 1.6% revised from 1.8%)

Norway: Unemployment rate (Aug.): 2.1% as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• Unemployed has decreased over the month.

 

Sweden: Retail sales (July): -0.2% m/m (prior: 1.4% revised from 1.0%)

• Yearly trend has slowed to 6.2% y/y after 7.7% y/y prior month.

 

Sweden: Consumer confidence (Aug.): 98 (prior: 97.2 revised from 97.1)

• Confidence has regained about macro situation.

 

Sweden: Manufacturing confidence (Aug.): 107.1 (prior: 107.5 revised from 107.9)

• Confidence has marginally decreased in the manufacturing sector.

 

Sweden: GDP (Q2-26): 1.6% q/q vs 1.4% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

• Activity has strongly rebounded after the contraction seen in Q1.
• Consumption was strongly up (0.9% q) as well as public consumption and investment over the period.
• Net exports were also a strong contributor to the quarterly growth.

 

Switzerland: KOF (Aug.): 106.7 vs 103 expected (prior: 104.2 revised from 103.5)

• Business confidence has strongly rebounded over the month and the index was back to high level seen in pre-covid period.

US: Initial jobless claims (Aug.22): 203k vs 208k expected (prior: 207k revised from 206k)

• Continuing claims: 1778 k after 1796 k prior week.

 

US: Wholesale inventories (July): 1.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.2%)

• Inventories at retail sector have increased by 0.7% m/m (-0.2% m/m the prior month), mainly driven by autos.

 

Eurozone: M3 (July): 3.4% y/y vs 3.5% expected (prior: 3.3%)

• M2 remained on stable trend at 3.3% y/y, while M1 has slowed down from 3.5% y/y prior month to 3.1% y/y.
• Credit to private sector was up by 3.5% y/y after 3.2% y/y the prior month.
• Despite rising ECB rates, global uncertainty and volatile financial conditions, the monetary policy seems not particularly restrictive in the Eurozone.

 

France: Producer Prices (July): 1.1% m/m (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.6%)

• Energy prices were up by 2.9% m/m.
• Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.8% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.

 

Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Sept.): -26.6 vs -29.5 expected (prior: -29.4 revised from -29.6)

• Consumer sentiment has improved more than expected over the month; the change was mainly driven by rising income expectations after several depressed months and less negative business expectations.
• Preference for saving has slightly decreased in parallel.

 

Norway: GDP Mainland (Q2-26): 0.3% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)

• Growth was sustained but mainly driven by public consumption and global investment.
• Consumption has contracted over the quarter.

 

Brazil: Unemployment rate (July): 5.3% as expected (prior: 5.4%)

• Unemployed has slightly decreased over the month.

 

Brazil: Current account (July): -8110 M$ vs -6700 M$ expected (prior: -2693 M$ revised from -2330 M$)

• Current account deficit has increased over the month; foreign direct investment has decreased from the prior month but remained large (USD 7460 M).
• On cumulative 12M, current account deficit has reached 2.49% of while FDI topped 3.50% of GDP.

US: Personal income (July): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Total wage was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.
• Disposable income was strongly up by 0.5% m/m after 0.2% m/m the prior month.

 

US: Personal spending (July): 0.2% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Spending was better than consensus expectations, but on moderate trend compared to prior month.
• Purchases came higher in services (finance, health care and transport) but have decreased on gasoline, autos and leisure.
• The saving ratio has increased over the month back to 3.0% after 2.6% the prior month.

 

US: Core PCE deflator (July): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Yearly trend remained stable at 3.3% y/y.
• Next month, technical changes in calculation at sector levels could lower the yearly trend of core PCE.

 

US: Durable goods orders (July): 1.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.5%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to stronger orders, due to a rebound in civil aircrafts orders.
• Orders for capital goods nondefense ex aircrafts (core orders were up by 0.2% m/m after strong 1.7% m/m the prior month.
• Orders were sustained over the month for autos, machinery and primary metals.
• Shipments were up by 1% m/m (1% m/m prior month) and up by 1.4% m/m for core orders.
• Inventories were up by 0.4% m/m and up by 0.2% m/m for core orders.

 

US: GDP (Q2-26): 1.5% q/q as expected (prior: 2.1%)

• The second estimate of GDP has shown only minor changes at sector level.
• Consumption was up by 3.4% q/q after 0.5% q/q (revised from 3.2% in first estimate (services were revised higher but purchases of durable goods revised down).
• Investment was confirmed strong: a rebound in residential investment (1.3% q/q after -7.8% q/q in Q1); and still sustained rise in equipment (13.6% q/q after 15.8% q/q) and in IT-R&D up by 8.8% after 13.8%q/q in Q1).
• Imports have strongly rebounded, and net exports have contributed negatively to GDP (-1.14 pp); the decline in inventories have also contributed negatively to GDP (-0.72 pp).
• Private domestic demand remained strong, up by 4.2% q/q (3.9% in first estimate) after 1.7% q/q in Q1.