Tägliche Makro-Analyse
US Labor (Jan.): slower job creations, but lower unemployment ratio and firmer wage growth
US: Non-farm payrolls (Jan.): 143k vs 175k expected (prior: 307k revised from 256k)
- Job creations have slowed down over the month, but strong positive revisions were made to prior month.
- Annual past data were revised leading to higher creations in Q4-24 but also slower creations in Q2-24. The revised average monthly job creations settled at 166 k vs 186 k in first estimates.
- Creations offered more contrasts by sectors: creations were just slightly positive in manufacturing and construction. Creations in services have decreased from 275 k prior month to 111 k; situation has diverged by sector: Creations have slowed down in trade-transport and education-health, while they turned negative on business services and leisure-hospitality sectors. Creations were stable in public sector (32 k).
- Wage growth has accelerated, up by 0.5% m/m (4.1% y/y) after 0.3% m/m prior month. The largest monthly rise in wage growth was seen in mining, durable goods, transport, information, and finance sectors. On average, wage growth in services was up by 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% m/m in manufacturing sector.
- The unemployment ratio has decreased from 4.1% to 4%; all other alternative measures of unemployment ratio have decreased in parallel over the month.
- Labor market remained healthy, despite some slowdown in job creations. Fed may remain in no hurry to adjust further its key rates based on lower unemployment and sustained wage growth.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Feb.): 67.8 vs 71.8 expected (prior: 71.1)
- Preliminary consumer confidence has decreased further over the month; both expectations and sentiment on current situation have decreased. Expectations index has passed below the levels seen in 2024 but remained above those seen in 2023.
- Sentiment has deteriorated on finances, with expectations of rising prices. Business expectations have fallen over the month. Willingness to buy houses and autos have also decreased over the month.
- Inflation expectations at 12 M have increased from 3.3% y/y prior month to 4.3%y/y and 5-10y inflation views have increased from 3.2% y/y to 3.3% y/y.
US: Wholesale inventories (Dec.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Final data have confirmed the fall in inventories from the prior month. Inventories have sharply decreased in autos and non-durable goods.
- Sales were up by 1% m/m after 0.9% m/m prior month.
Germany: Industrial production (Dec.): -2.4% m/m vs -0.7% expected (prior: 1.3% revised from 1.5%)
- Production was sharply down over the month for capital and intermediate goods. A rebound in energy and consumer good production was not enough to balance total production.
Spain: Industrial production (Dec.): 0.9% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.8%)
- Production of consumer durable goods was heavily down over the month, while activity was strong for intermediate and energy sectors.
Norway: Industrial production (Dec.): -0.2% m/m (prior: 0.2%)
- Production was driven lower by a monthly fall in mining activities. Nevertheless, manufacturing production was up by 3.2% m/m, led by a rebound in refineries, chemicals, and pharma.
Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Jan.): -29.3 vs -30.5 expected (prior: -30.3)
- Consumer confidence has regained from the prior month. Sentiment was less negative on economy, financial situation, and willingness to buy.
US productivity (Q4-24) in line with expectations; the BoE has cut by 25 bp as expected
US: Initial jobless claims (Feb.1): 219k vs 213k expected (prior: 208k revised from 207k)
- Continuing claims: 1886 k after 1850 k prior week.
US: Nonfarm productivity (Q4-24): 1.2% q/q as expected (prior: 2.3% revised from 2.2%)
- Output was up by 2.3%q and hours worked up by 1%q); total compensation was up by 4.2%q after 2.9%q in Q3.
- Unit labor costs were up by 3%q after 0.5%q in Q3-24.
- Productivity in non-financial firms was up by 3%q after 1%Q in Q3-24. These data suggested productivity gains are concentrated in some sectors, while figures for total economy and manufacturing have not surprised on the rise.
UK: The BoE cut its key rates by 25 bp to 4.50% as expected.
- The vote was split between 7 (-25 bp) vs 2 (-50 bp). The bank noted progress on disinflation, but policy remained restrictive.
- Domestic inflation remained high but on moderation. Energy costs and regulated prices could push inflation temporarily to 3.7% y/y in Q3-25. Growth was weaker than expected but is forecasted to pick up in H2-25.
- The bank has an easing bias, judging medium-term outlook on inflation; the approach remains gradual and cautious and risks on growth and inflation are still seen on the two sides.
- The bank will monitor risks of persistent inflation and policy could remain restrictive until risks disappear; the bank continues to prefer a meeting-by-meeting approach to decide on key rates.
Germany: Factory orders (Dec.): 6.9% m/m vs 2% expected (prior: -5.2% revised from -5.4%)
- Orders remained highly volatile over the past quarters.
- A strong rebound has come after large fall the prior month.
- The rebound was driven by capital and consumer good sectors. Domestic orders on capital goods have driven a rebound in total domestic orders.
Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Jan.): 2.7% as expected (prior: 2.7% revised from 2.6%)
- No seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has increased from 2.8% to 3%.
- Long-term unemployed has increased over the month, but vacancies have also rebounded in parallel.
Eurozone: Retail sales (Dec.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0% revised from 0.1%)
- Sales have contracted further over the month; sales were down due to a large fall in food sales (-0.7% m/m after -0.1% prior month), while non-food sales were up by 0.3% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month).
Sweden: CPI (Jan.): 0.4% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Preliminary data pointed towards sustained monthly inflation. Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.5% y/y prior month to 2.2% y/y, and from 2% to 2.7% y/y on core inflation. Inflation data were above the central bank's expectations.
Services: lower, but still above 50, Jan. business confidence in the US, eurozone and UK
US: ADP Employment change (Jan.): 183k vs 150k expected (prior: 176k revised from 122k)
- Job creations were more sustained in services and also for small and medium-sized firms over the month.
US: Trade balance (Dec.): -98.4 bn USD vs -96.8 bn expected (prior: -78.9 bn revised from -78.2 bn)
- Exports were down by 2.6% m/m (2.7% m/m prior month), and all sectors were down over the month.
- Imports were up by 3.5% m/m (3.5% m/m prior month); within imports, industrial goods have surged over the month.
- Over the full year, the 5th largest 2024 good deficit remained in place with China, Mexico, Vietnam, Ireland, and Germany.
US: Services PMI (Jan.): 52.9 as expected (prior: 56.8)
- Business sentiment in services has declined after a rebound seen post-election. A weaker demand, slower exports, and negative weather impact were responsible for the decline in sentiment and demand.
- Views on employment remained positive.
- Rising labor costs have pushed up costs and prices paid; selling prices were also on a sustained rise.
US: ISM Services (Jan.): 52.8 vs 54 expected (prior: 54 revised from 54.1)
- Sentiment in services has declined over the month, in parallel with the PMI services.
- Opinions have decreased on activity, new orders, and imports; views remained positive on employment and exports.
- Index on prices paid have decreased from the prior month, but it remained at high level compared to past quarters.
Eurozone: PMI Services (Jan.): 51.3 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 51.6)
- Confidence has decreased in the area, despite a rise in new business orders. Sentiment has deteriorated in France, Italy, and Spain, while it has regained in Germany.
- All indices by major countries remained above 50 except for France (48.2).
- Sentiment on domestic demand was better oriented than exports; views on employment was positive.
- Pressures have increased on costs (labor costs, CO2 tax) but selling prices remained steady.
Eurozone: PPI (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.6%)
- Prices remained sustained due to energy prices, up by 1.4% m/m after 5.6% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend was up from -1.2% y/y the prior month to 0% y/y.
France: Industrial production (Dec.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)
- Manufacturing production was down by 0.7% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).
- Production has collapsed for autos and transport sector, not balanced by a rebound in food and utility productions.
UK: PMI Services (Jan.): 50.8 vs 51.2 expected (prior: 51.1)
- Final confidence services came lower than in the first estimates. Weakening demand, orders and exports have driven confidence lower.
- Employment was adjusted lower to rising labor costs; prices paid were on the rise due to higher labour costs and selling prices were on the rise.
Brazil: Industrial production (Dec.): -0.3% m/m vs -1.1% expected (prior: -0.7% revised from -0.6%)
- As seen the prior month, all sectors were under contraction, but except the intermediate goods sector this month.
Brazil: PMI Services (Jan.): 47.6 (prior: 51.6)
- Weaker demand and falling orders have driven sentiment below the 50 level; views on employment were negative.
- Prices were on the rise for both prices paid and selling prices.
US: JOLTS survey came below expectations
US: JOLTS Job Openings (Dec.): 7600k vs 8000k expected (prior: 8156k revised from 8098k)
- Job openings have decreased over the month; openings have decreased in business services, finance, and education-health sectors; on the opposite, openings were higher for trade-transport and leisure-hospitality sectors.
- Hirings have increased over the month, mainly due to trade and transport sector; separations and quitters have increased from the prior month. The turnover ratio based on job openings has decreased from 4.8 prior month to 4.5.
- Labor continues to normalize but remained globally healthy, with rising volatility in some sectors.
US: Factory orders (Dec.): -0.9% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: -0.8% revised from -0.4%)
- Orders have collapsed for the second month for aircraft, driving monthly data in contraction.
- New orders for capital goods non-defence ex aircraft (core goods) were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month.
- Total shipments were up by 0.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month; shipments for core goods were up by 0.5% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month).
- Total inventories were up by 0.4% (0.4% m/m prior month).
- Besides volatile defence and aircraft sectors, momentum remained positive on investment based on core goods orders.
PMI Manufacturing: improving sentiment, notably in the US
US: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 51.2 vs 50.1 expected (prior: 49.4)
- Business sentiment has improved due to higher confidence in future economy and policy (latest developments on trade tariffs not integrated). Views have improved on orders, production, and employment.
- Firms faced sharp increase in costs and raised their selling prices.
US: ISM Manufacturing (Jan.): 50.9 vs 50 expected (prior: 49.2 revised from 49.3)
- Business sentiment has improved, and the index has passed slightly above 50 after several years below 50.
- Sentiment has increased on production, new orders, exports, and employment while inventories remained low.
- Prices paid were on the rise.
- This improvement in sentiment was collected before latest news on tariffs.
US: Construction spending (Dec.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0%)
- Residential construction was up by 1.5% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month, while non-residential construction was down by 0.2% m/m (flat the prior month).
Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 46.6 vs 46.1 expected (prior: 45.1)
- Final PMI have confirmed some improvement in business confidence over the month, as new orders have regained from the prior month but remained below 50.
- Final PMI have improved in France (45 after 41.9 prior month) and in Germany (45 after 42.5), while it was quite stable in Italy (46.3) and weakened in Spain (from 53 to 50.9). New orders have regained in France and Germany but weakened in Spain and Italy.
- Recession looks slightly less severe in the manufacturing sector notably in France and Germany, but concerns remained in place, with potential rises in tariffs.
- Employment is still negative while export outlook has improved from prior month.
- Costs remained on the rise, but firms have refrained to pass rises to final clients, contrary to the comments seen in the first estimates of Euro PMI based only on France and Germany.
Eurozone: CPI estimate (Jan.): 2.5% y/y vs 2.4% expected (prior: 2.4%)
- Flash estimates have pointed toward a 0.3 m/m decline in monthly inflation (vs -0.4% m/m expected and 0.4% m/m the prior month).
- Over the month, food prices were up by 0.6% m/m, energy up by 2.9% m/m, while prices of services have declined by 0.2% m/m and industrial goods by 2.4% m/m.
- Yearly trend remained sustained in services close to 4% y/y (3.9%), while it has turned back strongly positive in energy (1.8% y/y after 0.1% y/y the prior month).
- Core inflation was down by 1% m/m, but yearly trend remained unchanged at 2.7% y/y.
Italy: CPI (Jan.): -0.7% m/m vs -1.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Yearly trend has increased from 1.4% y/y the prior month to 1.7% y/y. Rising trend in energy and transport were responsible for this acceleration.
- On first estimates, prices were down by 0.7% m/m after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
Norway: PMI (Jan.): 51.2 (prior: 50.4 revised from 50.3)
- Sentiment has improved on higher new orders (50.2 after 49.6 prior month).
Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 52.9 (prior: 52.4)
- Sentiment has improved on orders and employment, but it was more cautious and decreased over the month on production and exports.
Switzerland: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 47.5 vs 49.1 expected (prior: 47 revised from 48.4)
- Business sentiment has slightly increased but after downward revisions to prior month data.
- Sentiment has increased on production, employment and prices paid, but decreased on backlog of orders.
- In parallel, PMI services has increased from 51.3 the prior month to 57.2; sentiment has strongly rebounded for activity, new orders, employment but also selling prices.
UK: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 48.3 vs 48.2 expected (prior: 48.2)
- Business sentiment has stabilized at low level; sentiment has regained on new orders (index at 47.9 after 44 prior month) but demand remained weak on both domestic and export markets, notably for consumer sector.
- Small firms have turned more pessimistic than prior month and employment was reduced to control costs ahead of the next rise in labor costs.
- Prices and costs were on a sharp rise.
Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 50.7 (prior: 50.4)
- Business sentiment has decreased on new orders but remained stable on production and exports. Inventories were reduced.
- Costs were on the rise, due to weakening currency, and selling prices on the rise.
Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Jan.): 48 (prior: 49.1)
- Views on new orders have decreased from 47.4 the prior month to 46.8.
- Index has decreased after a regular improvement at year end.
Turkey: CPI (Jan.): 5.03% m/m vs 4.3% expected (prior: 1.03%)
- Prices have surged over the month; except prices of clothes, prices were strongly up for food, health, electricity, transport, education, and leisure.
- Yearly trend has declined from 44.38% y/y prior month to 42.12 % y/y, and for core inflation from 45.34% y/y to 42.65% y/y.