Tägliche Makro-Analyse
Donnerstag, Juli 02
America’s job market cooled down in June
US: Non-farm payrolls (Jun): 57k vs 113k expected (prior: 129k revised from 172k)
- America’s job market cooled down in June. Payrolls grew by fewer positions than expected, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2% from 4.3%, a decline driven by a shrinking labour force rather than a hiring surge.
- The politically sensitive manufacturing sector eked out a 3,000-job gain, while leisure and hospitality shed 61k positions as seasonal hiring came in weaker than usual. Also, the two‑month net revisions came in at -73k, taking the gloss off the previous months.
- Wage growth was benign. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month, in line with forecasts, while the annual pace ticked up from 3.4% to 3.5%.
- After three months of robust hiring, June’s step-down looks more like normalization than alarm. Initial jobless claims (215k versus 218k expected) underscore a still-sturdy labour market that, crucially for the Federal Reserve, shows little sign of overheating.
US: Factory orders (May): -1.3% m/m vs -2.0% expected (prior: 5.3% revised from 4.8%)
- Factory orders fell by less than expected in May. Stripping out transportation, orders looked notably firmer, rising 1.9%—, well above the 1.0% consensus and an acceleration from April’s 1.3%.
Switzerland: CPI (Jun): 0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6%)
- Swiss inflation eased in June, as expected, bringing the second-quarter average to 0.6% year on year, in line with the SNB’s Q2 projection.
- Softer oil prices pulled down imported inflation, both via petroleum products and other traded goods and services.
- Domestic inflation also edged lower, underscoring that any broadening of price pressures remains limited. Looking ahead, the SNB is likely to stay on hold through 2026.
Mittwoch, Juli 01
Robust US activity indicators and eurozone inflation below forecast
US: ISM Manufacturing (June): 53.3 vs 53.9 expected (prior: 54.0)
- New orders: 56.0 vs 57.0 expected (prior: 56.8)
- Prices paid: 73.0 vs 77.5 expected (prior: 82.1)
- New orders remain at an elevated level (8.6 points higher than in December), which suggests that manufacturing activity is likely to remain solid in the coming months.
- Still, ISM respondents continue to mention elevated geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainty as key headwinds, with higher input costs, pricing volatility, and procurement complexity driving a more cautious approach to spending and capital investment.
US: ADP Employment change (June): 98k vs 120k expected (prior: 122k)
- According to ADP, US private-sector job creation was again solid in June.
US: Construction spending (May): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.4%)
- Construction spending remains weak, with data centers (+0.6% m/m after +1.5% in April) again the standout performer.
- Private residential construction rose 0.3% while non-residential construction declined 0.3%.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (June F.): 51.4 vs 51.3 expected (prior: 51.6)
- The final PMI came in a tad higher than the flash estimate, but it fell below 50 in Spain (49.7) and was slightly lower than expected in Italy (52.2 after 52.9 in May).
- However, it was revised marginally higher in Germany (50.3) and France (51.2).
- June marked the fifth consecutive month of expansion for the manufacturing sector, with new orders slightly higher than in May (50.3 vs 50.0)
UK: Manufacturing PMI (June F.): 52.5 vs 53.1 expected (prior: 53.9)
- Slightly lower than the flash estimate with new orders barely growing (50.6) as "some of the temporary boost manufacturers were seeing from customer front-loading was fading" according to the press release.
- Output prices rose sharply again, but at a weaker pace than in May.
Eurozone: CPI estimate (June Prel.): 2.8% y/y vs 3.0% expected (prior: 3.2%)
- CPI m/m: -0.1% vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Core CPI y/y: 2.4% vs 2.5% expected (prior: 2.6%)
- The significant decline in the headline inflation rate was largely driven by the 1.7% monthly drop in energy prices which pushed the y/y change of energy inflation down from 10.8% in April and May to a still high 8.7% in June.
- However, the moderation in services inflation from 3.5% in May to 3.2% suggests that the energy price shock is not feeding through into broader inflationary pressures.
- Indeed, core inflation declined from 2.6% in May to 2.4% in June, which is the same rate that prevailed in February just before the start of the Iran war.
Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (June): 54.3 vs 56.5 expected (prior: 57.3)
- Slight decline over the month, but the PMI still stands at the second highest level since late 2022 despite the ongoing uncertainty around the trade deal with the US.
Dienstag, Juni 30
US consumer confidence a tad higher in June
US: JOLTS Job Openings (May): 7594k vs 7296k expected (prior: 7585k revised from 7618k)
- Jobs openings were nearly unchanged in May, adding to evidence that labor demand remains steady.
- The World Cup may have supported job openings in some sectors such as leisure and hospitality, which saw a surge in vacancies during the month.
US: Consumer confidence (CB) (June): 91.2 vs 94.4 expected (prior: 90.6 revised from 93.1)
- Present situation: 91.2 vs 94.4 expected (prior: 119.4 revised from 121.2)
- Expectations: 74.4 vs 75.2 expected (prior: 71.4 revised from 74.4)
- According to this survey, consumer confidence edged up in June after a downward revision to the prior month thanks to falling oil prices. However, the share of consumers saying jobs are hard to get rose to the highest in more than five years.
US: Chicago PMI (June): 56.7 vs 55.1 expected (prior: 62.7)
- Down from last month but still close to the highest levels since early 2022.
US: House price Index MoM (FHFA) (April): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0.1%)
- House prices are up 2.0% y/y according to this survey.
US: S&P Cotality CS 20-City (April): 1.1% y/y vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.9% revised from 0.8%)
- Home price growth in the big cities remains muted but the very strong increases during the pandemic are still a barrier for potential buyers.
Germany: CPI (June Prel.): -0.2% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: -0.1%)
- CPI y/y: 2.4% vs 2.5% expected (prior: 2.7%)
- The easing in inflation was driven by a steep fall in energy costs and another meaningful decline in food prices.
France: CPI (June Prel.): -0.3% m/m vs 0.0% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- CPI y/y: 2.0% vs 2.3% expected (prior: 2.8%)
- Inflation is unexpectedly back to the ECB target thanks to a sharp slowdown in energy prices combined with lower services inflation and easing manufactured goods prices.
Italy: CPI (June Prel.): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- CPI y/y: 3.1% vs 3.2% expected (prior: 3.2%)
- Today's inflation data should help alleviate the ECB's concerns about potential second-round inflation effects.
France: Consumer spending (May): 0.5% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.5%)
- Y/y: 0.3% vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.3%)
- This increase was unfortunately only driven by a rebound in energy spending.
Montag, Juni 29
Eurozone economic confidence nudged higher in June
Eurozone: Economic confidence (Jun): 95.0 vs 94.3 expected (prior: 93.7 revised from 93.5)
- Eurozone confidence nudged higher in June, with the Economic Sentiment Indicator rising for a second month to 95.0, up from April’s five-year low and beating expectations of 94.3. The improvement comes as firms and households take stock of the fallout from the Iran war while US-Iran peace talks rumble on.
- Services strengthened (3.2, from 2.6), retail sentiment improved (−9.7, from −10.9) and consumers were less downbeat (−17.7, from −19.0). Manufacturers’ morale edged up (−7.7, from −7.9), but construction slipped (−4.5, from −3.9).
- Price pressures look softer. Consumer inflation expectations dropped sharply to 34.0 from 40.4, and manufacturers’ selling price expectations eased to 22.3 from 26.7.
Spain: CPI (Jun): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Spain’s inflation stayed above the ECB’s 2% target. Headline inflation held at 3.6% year on year in June, unchanged from May. Rising electricity and natural-gas costs drove the increase, though lower gasoline prices helped cap the gains.
- Spain is the first major euro-zone economy to report inflation data since the ECB’s recent rate hike. The other big economies will publish figures on Tuesday, and the euro area’s aggregate reading is due Wednesday. Analysts expect a slight cooling to 3.0% from 3.2% for the bloc.
Freitag, Juni 26
US consumer confidence rebounded more than expected
US: Trade balance (May): -105.8 bn USD vs -85.0 bn expected (prior: -83.0 bn revised from -82.2 bn)
- America’s trade deficit widened unexpectedly to its largest in more than a year, as exports slipped, and imports climbed.
- Weaker oil prices and a 5.4% drop in goods exports dragged outbound shipments lower. Meanwhile, a surge of equipment for the country’s data‑center buildout lifted imports.
- Capital-goods purchases, covering computers and peripherals, semiconductors and telecommunications gear, continued to soar, up 42% year on year.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Jun F): 49.5 vs 50.0 expected (prior: 48.9)
- American consumers are more upbeat about the outlook than expected, according to the final reading of consumer sentiment. The headline index climbed from 44.8 to 49.5, though still subdued by historical standards.
- Confidence rose among both Democrats and Republicans, which coincides with easing oil prices.