Tägliche Makro-Analyse

Germany: PPI (June): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Prices of energy were down by 1.8% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month), while basic goods prices were up by 0.7% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.2% y/y prior month to 1.8% y/y; energy prices have declined from 2.5% y/y to 0.4% y/y, while basic goods prices were up by 5.1% y/y after 4.2% y/y prior month.

Poland: Industrial production (June): 2% m/m vs 2.7% expected (prior: -0.8%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded over the month, driven by manufacturing sector, up by 2.5% m/m (-0.8% m/m prior month); on the opposite, activity has contracted over the month in mining and electricity segments.

Poland: PPI (June): -0.2%m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0%)

• Yearly trend declined from 2.4% y/y prior month to 1.7% y/y. prices of mining were down by 1.7% m/m after 2.7% m/m prior month.

US: Housing starts (June): 1427k vs 1310k expected (prior: 1199k revised from 1177k)

• Housing starts have decreased for single-family houses (from 897 k to 895 k) but strongly rebounded for multifamily houses (from 302 k to 532k, figures more in line with past months levels).
• Building permits have decreased from 1410 k to 1367 k with a decline in both categories.

US: Industrial production (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Manufacturing production was flat after 0.1% m/m the prior month.
• Production of autos was strongly up over the month, while activity for metals and machinery was down.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (July): 54.4 vs 51 expected (prior: 49.5)

• Preliminary consumer confidence pointed to a strong rebound; opinions on current situation have strongly rebounded and expectations have made new rise.
• Opinions have improved about personal financial situation, and the balance of future income versus future inflation has improved over the month.
• There was less concern on unemployment and stable rates are expected as well as stable gasoline prices.
• Willingness to buy major items, autos and houses has rebounded over the month.
• 12M Inflation expectations have decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%, and the 5-10y inflation expectations remained stable at 3.3%.

Eurozone: CPI (June): -0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final data confirmed the monthly decline in prices; energy prices were down by 1.8% m/m (-1.2% m/m prior month), and food prices have also decreased. Good prices were down by 0.4% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month), while services were up by 0.5% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Core inflation was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined for food (1.5% after 1.9% y/y), energy (8.5 after 10.8% y/y), goods (0.7% after 0.9% y/y) and services (3.2% after 3.5% y/y prior month).
• Headline inflation declined from 3.2% to 2.8% y/y and core inflation from 2.6% to 2.4% y/y. This will give more time for the ECB, and no rate hike is expected next week.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (July): 41.4 vs 12.5 expected (prior: 10.3)

• The index was back to the highs seen in 2021.
• On current conditions, sentiment has increased for all major items: new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and delivery time (Hormuz constraints) and employment; prices paid and received have also increased further.
• The 6-month index has decreased from very high level over the prior two months, but it remained high. Opinions on 6 months have decreased for all major items, including prices, but not for unfilled orders and delivery time.

US: Initial jobless claims (July 11): 208k vs 217k expected (prior: 216k revised from 215k)

• Continuing claims: 1805 k after 1821 k the prior week.

US: Retail sales (June): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)

• Sales were down for gasoline (-5.3% m/m after 2.6% m/m prior month) due to price effects; on the opposite, sales were strong again for autos and also sustained for sport and internet sales.
• Core sales, sales ex food, building materials, autos and gasoline, were up by 0.5% m/m (as expected) and prior month data were revised from 0.7% to 0.8% m/m.
• Consumers have benefited from falling gasoline prices; upside risks remain on oil prices, but resilience of consumers should prevail.

US: NAHB housing market index (July): 34 vs 35 expected (prior: 36 revised from 35)

• Sentiment in housing has decreased from the prior month; opinions have decreased on current sales, future sales and new demand,

US: Pending home sales (June): -5.4% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 3.5% revised from 3.8%)

• Sales have decreased in all the four districts.

US: Business inventories (May): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.5%)

• Inventories have increased particularly for autos; total sales were sustained, up by 2.1% m/m after 1.4% m/m prior month.

Italy: CPI (June): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Over the month, prices for food and education were down, while costs have increased for housing-utilities and also for hotels and restaurants for the third month.
• Yearly trend has rebounded from 1.7% y/y prior month to 3.0% y/y.

UK: Industrial production (May): -0.5% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from 0%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.1% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month), but activity was contrasted at sector level: production was up for investment and consumer goods, while it decreased for intermediate and energy sectors.
• In parallel, activity was down in mining and oil-gas sectors over the month.
• Construction was down by 0.8% m/m (0.1% m/m prior month). Services were up by 0.3% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month), with R&D in medical sector.
• Index for monthly GDP was up by 0.1% m/m (-0.1% prior month) thanks to services.

US: Empire manufacturing (July): 15.6 vs 9.2 expected (prior: 5.7)

• Business sentiment has strongly rebounded from the prior month; opinions have increased on new orders, shipments, employment and also on delivery time; prices (paid and received) have decreased from the prior month.
• The 6-month index has eased due to lower prices, but new orders have increased further form the prior month.

US: PPI (June): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 1.1%)

• Prices of energy have decreased by 6.4% m/m after 8.4% m/m prior month, with falling crude oil prices. Food prices were down by 0.6% m/m after 0.5% m/m.
• Services were up by 0.2% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month; within service, the rise was centered on trade costs up by 0.4% m/m.
• Prices were lower than expected and prior month data were also revised lower.
• Yearly trend has declined from 6% y/y to 5.5% y/y; core inflation (excluding energy, food and trade sectors) remained stable at 5.1% y/y.

Eurozone: Industrial production (May): -0.2% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.1%)

• Industrial activity has reversed after a rebound the prior month. By sector, production has regained for energy and capital goods after a fall the prior month, while production was down in durable consumer goods and intermediate goods over the month.

Spain: CPI (June): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Final data confirmed a still sustained monthly rise, due to large rebound in housing, recreation, hotels, and insurance costs while prices for clothes and transport have declined over the month.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 3.6% y/y.

Poland: CPI (June): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Final data confirmed second decline in inflation; monthly changes have decreased for fuel-energy, transport, food and clothes; on the opposite, prices were up for recreation and insurance sectors.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y the prior month to 2.5% y/y.

Sweden: CPI (June): 0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.9%)

• Prices have increased further for culture-leisure and insurance sectors, while they declined for food, transport, household goods and transport. Core inflation was up by 0.6% m/m after 0.7% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.5% y/y prior month to 1.3% y/y. Core inflation decrease from 0.5% y/y to 0.4% y/y.