Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: Non-farm payrolls (July): -23k vs 80k expected (prior: 20k revised from 57k)

• Payrolls turned negative and the prior two months were significantly revised lower; May payrolls were revised from initially 129k to 63k.
• The monthly fall was related to a reversal over the past two months in services: payrolls in services were up by 5 k after 11K prior month, but job destructions were seen in: retail trade (-19k after -4k), finance (-14k after -2k), leisure (-40 k after -43 k) and government (-53 k after -10k). Creations remained positive but have slowed down in professional business (18 k after 34k) and in education-health (25k after 54 k).
• Creations remained positive but modest in manufacturing and construction.
• Wage growth has slowed down to 0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m and to 3.2% y/y after 3.4% y/y.
• The unemployment ratio has decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, due to a decline in both labor force and unemployed.
• Fed would be obliged to care again about the labor and not only about inflation; labor is volatile (strong creations in health vs a reversal in leisure and trade sectors) and finally labor looks a bit more fragile than expected.

Germany: Industrial production (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.7%)

• Production was contrasted by sector; activity has regained for capital goods, consumer goods and energy, but decreased for intermediate goods over the month.

Germany: Trade Balance (June): 15.4bn EUR vs 17.2bn expected (prior: 19.3bn revised from 19.1bn)

• Exports were up by 0.9% m/m (1.1% m/m prior month), but imports have strongly rebounded, up by 4.4% m/m (-2.6% m/m prior month).

France: Unemployment rate (Q2-26): 8.3% vs 8.2% expected (prior: 8.1%)

• Unemployed has increased from the prior quarter.

Norway: Industrial production (June): 7.6% m/m (prior: -0.9% revised from -1%)

• Production has rebounded due to a surge in oil-extraction sector, while manufacturing production was down by 1% m/m (0.8% m/m prior month).
• Within manufacturing, the monthly reversal was led by food, basic materials and machinery-equipment sectors.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (July): -34.8 vs -34 expected (prior: -35.8)

• Consumer confidence has regained, but less than expected over the month.
• Confidence has regularly improved over the prior months; opinions have improved about economic outlook and future purchases but remained cautious about financial situation.

US: Nonfarm productivity (Q2-26): 1.4% q/q vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.3%)

• Output was up by 1.7%q after 1.5%q in Q1 and total wages were up by 2.7%q after 2.1% q/q.
• Unit labor costs remained on stable trend at 1.3%q in Q2 and Q1.
• Productivity has slowed down from 2.9% y/y in Q1 to 2.2% y/y in Q2, but it is still an elevated trend.

• US: Initial jobless claims (Aug. 1): 199k vs 205k expected (prior: 198k revised from 197k)
• Continuing claims: 1801 k after 1777 k prior week.

US: Wholesale inventories (June): 0.2% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Inventories have increased for autos, computers and machinery over the month; total sales were down by 3% m/m, driven by lower purchases of oil.

Eurozone: Retail sales (June): -0.3% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.4% revised from 0.2%)

• Sales of auto fuel were up by 1.5% m/m while purchases of food and manufactured goods have contracted over the month.

Germany: Factory orders (June): 3.1% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 1.9%)

• Orders have rebounded over the month, but prior month data were revised lower.
• Orders were sustained for capital goods (computers, engineering) and consumer goods, while they decreased for intermediate goods.
• Domestic orders have surged (7.8% m/m) while foreign orders were on a modest rise (0.2% m/m.
• Defense, infrastructure and climate spendings, related to budget plan, are driving the German industry.

Italy: Industrial production (June): -1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Industrial activity has contracted further over the month. Production of energy has increased over the month, while activity has declined in all other sectors; the largest monthly fall was seen in capital goods.

Spain: Industrial production (June): -0.7% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.0% revised from 1.2%)

• Production has reversed over the month; production was strongly up for energy and intermediate sectors, but down for capital and consumer goods.

Sweden: CPI (July): -0.3% m/m vs -0.4% expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Preliminary data have pointed to falling electricity and energy prices mainly due to lower taxes. Core inflation was up by 0.4% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.3% y/y prior month to 0.7% y/y, but core inflation accelerated from 0.4% to 0.6% y/y.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (July): 3.1% as expected (prior: 3.1%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month, but unemployment rate (sa data) remained unchanged.

US: ADP Employment change (July): 44k vs 65k expected (prior: 95k revised from 98k)

• Job creations have decreased over the month; the largest fall were seen in medium-sized firms (from 29 k the prior month to 8k) and in services (from 93 k to 47k).
• Within services, a reversal was seen in leisure (from 2 k to -11 k), trade-transport (from 15k to -8k) and jobs created decreased also in education-health (from 48k to 36k).

US: Services PMI (July): 54.6 vs 53.6 expected (prior: 51.2)

• Final business sentiment came stronger than the first estimate and increased further from the prior month.
• Domestic demand was stronger thanks to Independence Day and FIFA sport events, while exports remained weak.
• Employment was modestly up while costs continue to rise above trend.
• Selling prices have strongly rebounded over the month

US: ISM Services (July): 54.1 vs 54.5 expected (prior: 54)

• ISM has increased less than expected over the month (more large firms and export oriented than the PMI index).
• Activity was stronger over the month, and new orders and exports have also increased but backlog of orders have decreased.
• Employment has decreased and prices paid have strongly rebounded after a pause in June.

Eurozone: Services PMI (July): 51.7 vs 51.6 expected (prior: 49.4)

• Business sentiment in services has been confirmed higher than prior month. Sentiment on new business has increased and the related index passed above 50 at 52.4.
• The index has increased in France and Germany but remained below 50; index has strongly rebounded in Spain (58.3 after 54.2) and increased further in Italy (52.5 after 50.2).
• Services have benefited from a stronger domestic demand, while exports remained weak. Employment has slightly increased, and costs and selling prices have modestly increased over the month.

Eurozone: PPI (June): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Energy prices were down by 1.5% m/m (-1.0% prior month), while prices for intermediate goods were up by 0.3% m/m and prices for capital and consumer goods up by 0.2% m/m.
• Yearly trend has declined from 5.9% y/y prior month to 4.6% y/y.

France: Industrial production (June): 0.1% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Production has increased over the month in electricity and utilities, while it has strongly declined for manufacturing sector (-1.1% m/m after -1.0% m/m prior month).

UK: Services PMI (July): 52.1 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Business sentiment in services has increased more than initially estimated from the prior month.
• Activity and new orders have rebounded over the month, but exports have weakened, except demand from Europe.
• Despite this rebound in activity, employment remained under contraction; input prices have slowed down but costs and selling prices have continued to trend higher, even at more modest pace.

US: Trade balance (June): -73.3 bn USD vs -73 bn expected (prior: -77.6 bn)

• Exports were down by 0.9% m/m (-3.2% m/m prior month) and imports down by 1.8% m/m (3.3% m/m prior month).
• Exports remained sustained for autos and consumers goods, while imports have contracted over the month on all major products.

US: JOLTS Job Openings (June): 7359k vs 7454k expected (prior: 7537k revised from 7594k)

• Job openings have decreased over the month and prior month data were revised lower.
• Openings have increased for trade-transport sector, but decreased for education-health, professional business and leisure hospitality. Demand for health sector has decreased after a surge in demand in April and May.
• Hirings have increased over the month, with some sectors on the rise: trade-transport, business services and education-health.
• Quitters and separations have slightly accelerated over the month, with still the same sectors under the spotlights: trade-transport, education-health and business services.
• Demand for labor has moderated but some sectors concentrate the demand and also the turnover.

US: Factory orders (June): -0.3% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -1.1% revised from -1.3%)

• Orders for capital goods nondefense and ex-aircraft (core orders) were up by 1.2% m/m after 1.9% m/m prior month.
• Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m (1.6% m/m prior month), but strongly up for core goods (2% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month).
• Inventories were up by 0.1% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month) and up by 0.2% m/m for core goods (0.1% m/m prior month).