Tägliche Makro-Analyse
Freitag, November 21
US-Eurozone: business sentiment has improved in services but has weakened in manufacturing
US: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 51.9 vs 52 expected (prior: 52.5)
- Preliminary data have pointed to eroding confidence in manufacturing.
- While sentiment remained positive on production, views have decreased for new orders and export orders; an undesired rise in inventories was seen.
- Employment was positive and selling prices remain contained.
US: Services PMI (Nov.): 55 vs 54.6 expected (prior: 54.8)
- Sentiment has increased further in services from the prior month; sentiment has increased on new business but decreased on employment; selling prices remained on the rise.
- The composite index has marginally increased from 54.6 to 54.8 thanks to services.
US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov.): 51 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 53.6)
- Final consumer confidence offered a more limited fall than in the first estimate from the prior month.
- Sentiment has sharply declined on current situation, related to negative views on income and labor.
- Expectations have slightly increased from the prior month, contrary to first estimate showing a fall. Nevertheless, views were cautious on future activity, with rising concerns on unemployment and building hopes of a decrease in interest rates.
- The rating of approvals among consumers about the government fighting inflation and unemployment remained at low level.
- Willingness to buy autos and houses has decreased from the prior month.
- Inflation expectations have decreased from the prior month, contrary to first estimates; inflation at 12 M is expected at 4.5% y/y after 4.6%y/y and the 5-10 expectations came at 3.4% after 3.9% y/y prior month.
US: Wholesale inventories (Ug.): 0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Inventories have increased further for autos and computers. Total sales were up by 0.1% m/m after 1.3% m/m prior month.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 49.7 vs 50.1 expected (prior: 50)
- Preliminary business sentiment has decreased over the month and new orders index was back below the 50 level.
- Sentiment has decreased in Germany and France from the prior month.
- Demand remained weak and inventories have been reduced; while costs were on the rise, employment has decreased; selling prices remained unchanged.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Nov.): 53.1 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 53)
- Preliminary sentiment in services remained sustained, but new demand has weakened.
- Index has regained in France (from 48 to 50) but weakened in Germany (from 54.6 to 52.7).
- Composite index for eurozone remained stable (52.4 after 52.5 prior month), mainly due to services.
France: Business confidence (Nov.): 98 vs 97 expected (prior: 97)
- Business confidence has decreased in manufacturing (index from 101 prior month to 98).
- Views were less negative about past and future production but decreased on new orders.
- Index was up for services from the prior month.
Switzerland: M3 (Oct.): 4.8% y/y (prior: 4.0% revised from 3.9%)
- M1 was upby 21.5% y/y after 20.6% y/y prior month.
- M2 was up by 16.2% y/y after 15.8% y/y the prior month; time deposits have decreased further while saving deposits remained on regular rising trend.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Nov.): 50.2 vs 49.2 expected (prior: 49.7)
- Preliminary data pointed to higher production and new orders (domestic demand in rebound), but opinions have weakened on employment. Prices have moderated.
UK: Services PMI (Nov.): 50.5 vs 52 expected (prior: 52.3)
- Views on activity and new business have weakened over the month due to uncertainties about the future budget policy.
- Opinions have decreased on employment and moderated on prices.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Nov.): -19 vs -18 expected (prior: -17)
- Consumer sentiment has decreased more than expected over the month.
- Opinions have deteriorated on personal financial situation, economic outlook and about future purchases.
UK: Retail sales (Oct.): -1.1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)
- Sales have decreased on all sector except household goods over the month, after a strong rebound the past two months.
Donnerstag, November 20
US labor: a rebound in Sept. payrolls but volatile jobless claims past Oct./mid-Nov.
US: Non-farm payrolls (Sept.): 119k vs 51k expected (prior: -4k revised from 22k)
- Payrolls have rebounded after a contraction the prior month; data were volatile prior months with large revisions.
- Jobs have rebounded over the month in manufacturing and construction.
- In services, jobs were up by 87 k after 50k the prior month; the picture was contrasted by sector: a rebound in retail trade, leisure-hospitality, education-health and government but a fall in business services.
- Wage growth was up by 0.2% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month and up by 3.8% y/y.
- Unemployment ratio has increased from 4.3% prior month to 4.4%; all other alternative measures of the unemployment ratio have also increased over the month.
US: Initial jobless claims (Nov. 15): 220k vs 227k expected (prior: 228k)
- Continuing claims: 1974 k after 1946 k the prior week.
- Past weeks data were released and pointed to a deterioration in jobless claims mid-Oct (232k) followed by some stabilization, going back to 220-228k past weeks.
- Past weeks, continuing claims remained on a rising trend.
- After the rebound in payrolls on Sept., trend in labor remained volatile with still existing downside risks. The Fed may debate on the opportunity of a cut in Dec., while no new payrolls will be available.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (Nov.): -1.7 vs 1 expected (prior: -12.8)
- Business sentiment has improved from the prior month, but less than consensus expected.
- On current situation, sentiment has decreased on new orders and shipments but improved on employment and prices paid.
- The 6-month index has sharply rebounded to reach new high; opinions have improved on new orders, inventories and employment; prices paid were also on the rise.
US: Existing home sales (Oct.): 4.1M vs 4.08M expected (prior: 4.05M revised from 4.06M)
- Sales have regained from the prior month on both single-family houses and condos.
- Inventories (in terms of month of sales) have marginally decreased over the month but remained stable for single-family houses.
- Prices remained on a stable 2.1% y/y trend.
Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Nov.): -14.2 vs -14 expected (prior: -14.2)
- First estimate of consumer confidence has pointed to stable index over the month after some improvement seen in Aug.-Sept.
Germany: PPI (Oct.): 0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Prices have decreased for food, heating oil and manufacturing products, but up for electricity and capital goods.
- Yearly trend has declined to -1.8% y/y after -1.7% y/y prior month.
Switzerland: Trade balance (Oct.): 4.32 Bn CHF (prior: 3.99Bn)
- Real exports: -0.6% m/m after 2.8% m/m prior month; real imports: 0.1% m/m after 2.0% m/m prior month.
Turkey: Consumer confidence (Nov.): 85 (prior: 83.6)
- Household confidence has improved on financial situation, economic outlook and purchases.
Mittwoch, November 19
Declining yearly trend in UK inflation
US: Trade balance (Aug.): -59.6 bn USD vs -60.4 bn expected (prior: -78.2 bn revised from -78.3 bn)
- Trade deficit has reduced over the month as imports have sharply declined (-5.1% m/m after 5.9% m/m the prior month), while exports were modestly up (0.1% m/m after 0.3% m/m the prior month).
- Imports have sharply declined in all categories except autos; large swings in imports were seen over the past Aug.-July months due to imports of industrial supplies and non-monetary gold flows.
Eurozone: CPI (Oct.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Final data came as expected over the month; energy prices were down by 0.2% m/m, as seen in the past three months; good prices were up by 0.5 % mm/m after 2.2% m/m prior month and services only up by 0.1% m/m (-0.9% m/m prior month). Core inflation was up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has marginally declined for headline inflation from 2.2% y/y to 2.1% y/y; core inflation remained stable at 2.4% y/y.
- While energy remained under contraction on yearly trend, food (2.5% y/y) and services (3.4% y/y) remained on sustained trend.
UK: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)
- Prices have accelerated over the month for food, clothes, housing, education and energy sectors. Monthly decline was seen in communication and health sectors.
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.8% y/y prior month to 3.6% y/y and from 3.5%y/y to 3.4% y/y on core inflation; trend has also declined for services from 4.7% y/y to 4.5% y/y.
- These data could give more comfort to the BOE, being close to its expectations; the option of a rate cut in Dec. is opened.
UK: PPI Input prices (Oct.): -0.3% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1%)
- Prices of materials were down by 0.3% m/m while energy prices were up by 0.3% m/m and those of manufactured goods were flat.
- Yearly trend has declined from 0.7% y/y prior month to 0.5% y/y.
UK: PPI Output prices (Oct.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)
- Oil prices have decreased but this rise was balanced by some rise in core goods prices.
- Yearly trend has marginally accelerated from 3.5% y/y prior month to 3.6% y/y.
Dienstag, November 18
US rising jobless claims; modest improvement in sentiment in housing
US: Initial jobless claims (Oct. 18): 232k (prior: NA)
- Data are coming back progressively but no official history available.
- Continuing claims: 1957 k after 1947 prior week.
- Partial data pointed to ongoing fragilities in labor.
US: NAHB housing market index (Nov.): 38 vs 37 expected (prior: 37)
- Sentiment in housing has slightly regained over the month.
- Opinions have improved on current sales but remained cautious about future sales. Demand has slightly increased over the month.
- Sentiment is slightly rebuilding after the lows of the index seen in June.
US: Factory orders (Aug.): 1.4% m/m as expected (prior: -1.3%)
- Orders for capital goods non-defence and ex aircraft were up by 0.4% m/m after 0.7% m/m the prior month.
- Total orders were impacted by large swings in orders for aircrafts.
- Shipments were down by 0.1% m/m after 0.9% m/m prior month; inventories were flat after 0.2% m/m prior month.
Montag, November 17
New York factory activity surprised to the upside
US: NY Empire manufacturing (Nov.): 18.7 vs 5.8 expected (prior: 10.7)
- Business sentiment has rebounded regarding current conditions, but the 6-month index has decreased (index from 30.3 prior month to 19.1).
- Regarding the current period, sentiment has improved due to gains in new orders, shipments, inventories, and employment, while prices paid were lower than in the prior month.
- The 6-month outlook declined compared to the prior month, but the index remained high. The decrease was attributed to lower orders and shipments, although employment rose, and prices paid showed a moderate decrease.
US: Construction spending (Aug): 0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.2% revised from -0.1%)
- Construction spending rose in August, driven by residential projects, particularly for home improvements.
- Residential construction increased by 0.8%, compared to a 0.7% rise in the previous period. However, private single-family home construction declined by 0.4%, while multifamily construction increased by 0.2%, and home improvements surged by 2.3%.
- Nonresidential construction declined by 0.2%, matching the 0.2% drop in the prior period. The biggest decline was observed in manufacturing, which fell by 0.9%.
- Overall, the construction sector remains weak, as evidenced by a yearly decline in construction spending of 1.6%.
Italy: CPI (Oct.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 1.3%)
- Prices have declined over the month due to falling prices in housing, transport, communication, leisure, and hotels/restaurants, despite a sharp rebound in clothing prices.
- The yearly trend declined from 1.8% y/y in the prior month to 1.3% y/y.
Switzerland: GDP (Q3-25): -0.5% q/q vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Preliminary data pointed to weaker growth than expected by consensus due to high US tariffs in recent months.
- The industry, particularly the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors, has been affected by US trade policy.
- Recent trade agreement with the US should help revive activity at year end.