Tägliche Makro-Analyse
Donnerstag, Mai 21
May PMI business sentiment: globally weaker in services but still resilient in manufacturing in the US and UK
US: Initial jobless claims (May 16): 209k vs 210k expected (prior: 212k revised from 211k)
- Continuing claims: 1782 k after 1776 k the prior week.
US: Philadelphia Fed. (May): -0.4 vs 17.8 expected (prior: 26.7)
- Business sentiment on current situation has collapsed while the 6-month index has rebounded from already high level.
- Sentiment has pointed to short-term difficulties but a still positive future outlook.
- On current situation, opinions have decreased on new orders, shipments while inventories were on the rise; prices paid have slightly eased.
- The 6-month index offered a more positive outlook, with opinions increasing on new orders, shipments but also prices paid; employment remained on lower trend.
US: Manufacturing PMI (May): 55.3 vs 53.8 expected (prior: 54.5)
- Flash estimates have pointed to new acceleration in business sentiment over the month.
- While opinions have moderated on new orders, production was higher but mainly driven by domestic demand and ongoing inventory rebuilding. Supply delivery has increased further with disruption in trade and production. Employment has regained to face higher production.
- Costs and prices have again sharply increased over the month.
US: Services PMI (May): 50.9 vs 51.2 expected (prior: 51)
- Flash estimate pointed to weakness in services: demand was subdued due to high prices, rising uncertainty and falling exports. Opinions have decreased on employment.
- Costs and prices remained on a sharp rising trend.
US: Housing starts (April): 1465k vs 1410k expected (prior: 1507k revised from 1502k)
- Building permits were up to 1442 k after 1363 k the prior month.
- Single houses housing starts have weakened over the month after a strong rebound the prior month; on the opposite, multi-family houses have rebounded on both housing starts and building permits.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (May): 51.4 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 52.2)
- Flash estimate has pointed to weaker business sentiment.
- Opinions have decreased on new orders, with related index passing below 50, in parallel with lower production, exports and another round of lower employment.
- Activity suffered from severe supply chain disruption while stock rebuilding has continued.
- Input costs have rebounded further and selling prices were again on the rise.
- French index has passed below 50 at 48.9 after 52.9 prior month, as well as the German index declined from 51.4 to 49.9.
Eurozone: Services PMI (May): 46.4 vs 47.8 expected (prior: 47.6)
- Sentiment in services has decreased further according to flash estimate.
- The index has collapsed in France (42.9 after 46.5 prior month) but regained in Germany (47.8 after 46.9).
- Views have decreased on global activity, foreign demand and employment.
- Input costs have increased sharply and selling prices were on the rise.
- The combined service-manufacturing index has decreased from 48.8 prior month to 47.5, pointing to downside risks on activity in Q2.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (May): 53.7 vs 53 expected (prior: 53.7)
- Flash estimate pointed to a stable and still high business sentiment.
- Opinions on new orders have decreased but the index remained above 50 at 51.9. Production was still sustained with front-loading activity ahead of disruption in production and trade due to the war in Middle East.
- Costs and input prices remained on the rise as well as selling prices.
UK: Services PMI (May): 47.9 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 52.7)
- Sentiment on services has collapsed over the month according to flash estimate.
- Demand has decreased on lower investment sentiment, delayed consumption (transport-leisure) and rising domestic political uncertainty.
- Costs and selling prices have increased but at a slightly slower pace than the prior month.
Poland: Industrial production (April): -7.4% m/m vs -7.9% expected (prior: 15.2% revised from 17.2%)
- Industrial activity has reversed after a sharp rebound the prior month; all major sectors were down over the month.
- Yearly trend has slowed down to 3.1% y/y after 7.5% y/y prior month, with weak trend in manufacturing.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (April): 8.5% vs 8.8% expected (prior: 9.2%)
- Unemployed has decreased over the month and also labor force.
Switzerland: M3 (April): 4.3% y/y (prior: 4.5% revised from 4.4%)
- M1 growth has slowed down further from 17% y/y prior month to 14.3% y/y; M2 was also on a slowdown, from 119% y/y to 10% y/y.
- Time deposits continued to contract while growth in saving deposits has continued to slow down.
Mittwoch, Mai 20
Inflation: sustained monthly rises in the UK and the eurozone; yearly trend should rise above 3% in the two regions
Eurozone: CPI (April): 1% m/m as expected (prior: 1.3%)
- Final data confirmed a still sustained monthly rise in prices, driven by energy.
- Energy was up by 3% m/m after 7% the prior month. Services were up by 1.1% y/y after 0.3% m/m, due to transport.
- Goods were up by 0.7% m/m and food up by 0.4% m/m. Core inflation was up by 0.9% m/m after 0.8% m/m prior month.
- Besides energy, prices have increased by a sustained monthly rise, notably in services.
- Yearly trend was up by 3% y/y after 2.6% y/y the prior month; services were up by 3%, energy up by 10.8% y/y and good prices up by 0.8% y/y. Core inflation remained on quite stable trend up by 2.2% after 2.3% y/y the prior month.
- Core inflation trend was positive surprise given the monthly rise, but upside risks remain in place and should pave the way to one key rate hike in June by the ECB.
Germany: PPI (April): 1.2% m/m vs 2.0% expected (prior: 2.5%)
- The monthly rise was fueled by energy prices, up by 2.4% m/m (7.5% m/m the prior month) and by good prices, up by 0.7% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend was up by 1.7% y/y after -0.2% y/y the prior month.
UK: CPI (April): 0.7% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- Monthly rises remained sustained due to energy, but the monthly rise was lower than expected.
- Energy prices were up by 3.5% m/m after 5.4% m/m the prior month; prices of goods were up by 0.8% m/m after 1.1% m/m.
- Services were up by 0.9% m/m (0.5% m/m prior month), driven by transport sectors and housing services. Core Prices were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.4% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.3% y/y the prior month to 2.8% y/y and core inflation was down to 2.5% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month. This positive yearly trend was mainly due to a positive base effect as prices were up by 1.3% m/m and 3.5% y/y in April 2025.
- Pressures on energy should drive headline inflation above 3.5% y/y in Q3-26.
UK: PPI Input prices (April): 2.4% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 4.3% revised from 4.4%)
- Prices remained on a sustained trend; the monthly rise was due to rising fuels, intermediate and manufacturing good prices.
- Yearly trend has rebounded from 5.3% y/y prior month to 7.7% y/y.
UK: PPI Output prices (April): 1.4% m/m vs 1% expected (prior: 1.4% revised from 0.9%)
- Prices have shown sustained rises after upwards revisions to past month data.
- Core prices were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has accelerated to 4.0% y/y after 3.0% y/y the prior month.
- Trend in input and output prices suggested upside risks to inflation.
Dienstag, Mai 19
UK Labor: rising unemployment ratio and decreasing payrolls
US: Pending home sales (April): 1.4% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: 1.7% revised from 1.5%)
- Sales remained relatively sustained after a rebound over the past two months.
- Disparities across the main 4 districts remained in place. Sales decreased after two months rebound in South and West districts, while they rebounded in Northeast and Midwest districts.
- Despite high mortgage rates, underlying demand remained relatively sustained to stabilize the market of existing houses.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (March): 5% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.9%)
- Claimant count remained stable at 4.4% (April data).
- 3-month employment was up by 148 k after 24 k the prior 3M period, and unemployment decreased by 77 k (94 k prior period). The 3M employment was fueled by higher full-time employees while part-time jobs have decreased.
- Payrolls for April were less favorable, down by 100 k after -28 k the prior month. Jobless claims were up by 26.5 k after 4.9 k the prior month.
- Vacancies remained on a downward trend.
- As seen prior months, labor remained on a downward trend and could turn more fragile next months.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (March): 4.1% y/y vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.9% revised from 3.8%)
- Wage growth was sustained over the month, fueled by higher bonuses. Wage growth ex-bonus has slowed down from 3.6% y/y prior month to 3.4% y/y.
- Total wage growth was strong in services (4.4% y/y after 4.1% prior month), while the growth in wages has declined in manufacturing sector (3.5% y/y after 4.1% y/y prior month).
Montag, Mai 18
US: improving sentiment in housing (May NAHB index)
US: NAHB housing market index (May): 37 vs 34 expected (prior: 34)
- Sentiment in housing was higher than expected from the prior month. The rebound was limited, and the index remained close to its low level.
- Opinions have improved from the prior month about present and future sales as well as on new demand, despite constraints from high mortgage rates.
Switzerland: GDP (Q1-26): 0.5% q/q vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.2%)
- First estimate has shown a still resilient activity; net trade was slightly positive as imports fell while exports were sluggish; domestic demand remained resilient.
Turkey: Consumer confidence (May): 85.8 (prior: 85.5)
- Consumer confidence has slightly increased over the month; opinions have improved on both future financial situation and economic outlook.
- Willingness to buy large items has slightly improved over the month except for housing.
Freitag, Mai 15
US: rebounding industrial activity and business sentiment (New York Empire)
US: Empire manufacturing (May): 19.6 vs 7.2 expected (prior: 11)
- Business sentiment has strongly rebounded to reach new high over the past two years.
- On current situation, opinions have improved on new orders, inventories, delivery time, while they decreased on employment.
- The 6M index has also rebounded from the prior month thanks to new orders, shipments, capex and employment.
- On prices, views on both current and future situation pointed to accelerating prices paid and selling prices.
US: Industrial production (April): 0.7% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.5%)
- Industrial activity has strongly rebounded over the month; manufacturing production was up by 0.6% m/m after 0.1% m/m.
- The rebound was driven by utilities (gas) and by autos, computers and electronics production.
Italy: CPI (April): 1.6% m/m vs 1.7% expected (prior: 1.6%)
- Final data came slightly lower than initial estimates. Monthly rises were due to higher energy prices and transport costs, but also to a rebound in clothes and hotel-restaurant prices.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 2.1% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.
Poland: CPI (April): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 1.1%)
- While fuel prices have declined over the month, prices have accelerated for clothes, food, housing and leisure.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 3.0% y/y prior month to 3.2% y/y.