Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: New home sales (March): 724k vs 685k expected (prior: 674k revised from 676k)

• Sales have increased driven by a rebound in the South district over the month.
• Inventories have decreased over the month.
• Average prices were down by 4.7% y/y (-3.3% y/y prior month).

US: Manufacturing PMI (April): 50.7 vs 49 expected (prior: 50.2)

• Business sentiment stayed resilient and has slightly increased over the month.
• Production was on the rise ahead of tariffs hikes and new orders have increased from domestic demand, but exports have decreased.
• Employment has decreased while costs and prices were on the rise due to tariffs.

US: Services PMI (April): 51.4 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 54.4)

• Flash estimate has pointed to significant fall in services; new business was impacted by rising uncertainties, notably on government policy, fall in exports and falling demand for tourism and cross-border activities.
• Employment remained on a moderate positive trend; costs and prices were on the rise.

Eurozone: PMI Manufacturing (April): 48.7 vs 47.4 expected (prior: 48.6)

• Business sentiment remained resilient versus fears of a collapse after the announcement on US tariffs.
• Flash estimate has pointed towards further weakness in France (index from 48.5 to 48.2) and in Germany (from 48.3 to 48), while rest of the area might remain better oriented.
• Production stayed firm probably in advance of major rise in tariffs and renewed trade and production disruption.
• Employment has decreased and input cost too, while prices remained on a moderate rise.

Eurozone: PMI Services (April): 49.7 vs 50.5 expected (prior: 51)

• Flash estimate has pointed to sharp decline in confidence in services; France and Germany have shown significant fall in index (France: from 47.9 to 46.8; Germany from 50.9 to 48.8), while the rest of the euro, mainly peripheral countries, stayed quite resilient in services.
• Employment remained modestly positive, and prices were on a moderate rise.

UK: PMI Manufacturing (April): 44 as expected (prior: 44.9)

• Flash estimate has pointed to falling confidence due to lower production, orders and exports.
• Employment was also down over the month.

UK: PMI Services (April): 48.9 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 52.5)

• The fall in services is the most pronounced over the month compared to the manufacturing sector.
• Rising uncertainties and falling demand, notably foreign demand, have led the index below the 50 level.

Poland: Retail sales (March): 14.3% m/m vs 14.9% expected (prior: -6%)

• A traditional volatile data; the monthly rebound was seen in several sectors but mainly driven by autos and household goods.
• Despite this monthly rebound, sales remained down by 0.3% y/y after -0.5% y/y.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (April): -13 vs -7 expected (prior: -4)

• Business confidence has declined further and has shown a sharp fall in April. All major items were falling : orders, shipments, employment while prices were on the rise.
• The 6-month vies index has fallen in parallel, driven lower by falling orders, shipments, employment, and capex.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (April): -16.7 vs -15.1 expected (prior: -14.5)

• Flash estimates have shown a new fall in consumer confidence; the index was back to the 2023 levels. No details available in this first estimate.

Switzerland: M3 (March): 2.8% y/y (prior: 2.5% revised from 2.3%)

• Monetary aggregates have seen accelerated trend growth after a period of contraction (from mid-2023 to mid-2024); M1 was up by 8.4% y/y after 5.8% y/y prior month. M2 was up by 9% y/y after 7.2% y/y prior month.
• Time deposit decline has accelerated further (-22% y/y).

Poland: Industrial production (March): 8.6% m/m vs 9.2% expected (prior: -0.3% revised from -0.4%)

• Production has rebounded in manufacturing, increased in mining sectors but declined for electricity.
• Yearly trend has increased by 2.4% y/y after several month under contraction.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (March): 8.1% vs 8.7% expected (prior: 8.9%)

• Employment has regained over the month after a surge in unemployed in Jan., this explained the sharp decline in unemployment ratio over the past two monthly after a peak in Jan.
• As data remained highly volatile, it remained difficult to deduct underlying trend versus the up and down seen in labor market the recent months.

Turkey: Consumer confidence (April): 83.9 (prior: 85.9)

• Consumer confidence has decreased, and the index was back to level seen in past Feb., which remained positive.
• Confidence has weakened on financial situation, future economy, and rising concerns about unemployment.

US: Initial jobless claims (April 12): 215k vs 225k expected (prior: 224k revised from 223k)

• Continuing claims: 1885 k after 1844 k the prior week.

US: Philadelphia Fed. (April): -26.4 vs 2.2 expected (prior: 12.5)

• Business sentiment has sharply deteriorated over the month.
• Opinions have deteriorated on new orders, shipments, and employment. Prices paid and prices received were on the rise.
• The 6-month index has slightly regained (index from 5.6 prior month to 6.9) which remained particularly low. Future views have improved on new orders but remained well negative on employment and prices still viewed on the rise.

US: Housing starts (March): 1324k vs 1420k expected (prior: 1494k revised from 1501k)

• The monthly fall was more pronounced on single-family houses (-14% m/m) and reached low absolute levels based on its recent history; the decline in multifamily houses was less pronounced (-3.5% m/m).
• Building permits have regained from 1459 k the prior month to 1482 k, thanks to a rebound in multifamily houses while other categories have contracted.
• Prices and volatile interest rates have weighed down on demand.

The ECB cut key rates by 25 bp as expected (deposit rate at 2.25%).

• In its statement, the ECB mentioned a deteriorating outlook on growth due to trade tensions but also mentioned some resilience in activity. Uncertainties are on the rise, with risks of tighter financing conditions.
• The ECB seems confidence on the inflation outlook and reiterated that disinflation is on track and wage growth on a moderating process.
• The ECB removed any reference to its monetary policy viewed the prior meeting as being “meaningfully less restrictive”; the ECB could view key rates now close to or at neutral range.
• The policy remained data dependant and decisions will be made meeting by meeting as seen in past meetings.
• From Q&A:
• Lagarde developed downside risks on future activity related to trade tensions but pointed to uncertain net impact on inflation. Inflation is viewed with two-sided risks: German measures will boost demand while trade uncertainties are depressing global and domestic demand.
• Despite downside risks on activity, it seemed too early and not necessary for the ECB to turn stimulative on its policy now.
• The removal of any mention to a restrictive or not monetary policy is justified by uncertainty on current activity. The ECB seems not yet to be ready to act pre-emptively on rates given the risks, and no proposals were made in favor of a 50 bp rate cuts today.

Germany: PPI (March): -0.7% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Energy prices were sharply down over the month (-2.8% m/m after -1% m/m prior month), due to lower oil, mining, and utility prices.
• Consumer good prices were up by 0.3% m/m after 0.1% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has turned negative, down by 0.2% y/y after 0.7% y/y prior month.

Switzerland: Trade balance (March): 6.35 Bn CHF (prior: 4.74Bn)

• Trade surplus has rebounded over the month.
• Real exports were up by 3.2% m/m after 3.9% m/m prior month; real imports were up by 4.5% m/m after 3.7% m/m prior month.

Turkey: Central bank has raised key rates from 42.50% to 46% (one week rate)

• The bank mentioned demand was still resilient and fuelled upside risks on inflation on the short term.
• A tight policy should remain in place if pressures remain on inflation, but underlying trend in inflation has improved medium term.

US: Retail sales (March): 1.4% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)

• Rebound in sales was in line with expectations; sales were stronger for autos, building materials, sports and also regained on eating-drinking sectors. Gasoline consumption was under contraction over the month.
• Core sales (sales ex autos, building materials, gasoline, and food) were up by 0.4% m/m after a strong 1.3% m/m prior month. A positive signal for Q1 consumption included in GDP.
• Part of the rebound in good purchased was probably made ahead of the announced rises in tariffs, but consumption was also good on services; no collapse in Q1 consumption but a more moderate growth trend after the record 4.0% q/q reached in Q4-24.

US: Industrial production (March): -0.3% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.7%)

• Manufacturing production was up by 0.3% m/m after 1.0% m/m prior month; the activity was sustained in autos, computers, and machinery sectors, while production has contracted in energy and utility sectors (good weather conditions).

US: Business inventories (Feb.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)

• Inventories were on a moderate growth while sales have accelerated (1.2% m/m).

US: NAHB housing market index (April): 40 vs 38 expected (prior: 39)

• Sentiment was slightly better than expected and the prior month.
• Opinions have improved on current sales and future requests.

Eurozone: CPI (March): 0.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Final data confirmed the rebound in monthly inflation driven by good prices, up by 1.9% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Energy prices were down by 1.4% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month), while services were up by 0.4% m/m (0.6% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.3% y/y prior month to 2.2% and core inflation from 2.6% to 2.4% y/y, thanks to pronounced decline in services (from 3.7% y/y to 3.4% y/y).

Italy: CPI (March): 1.6% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Prices of clothes were up by 22% m/m and have driven up total inflation over the month.
• Yearly trend has reaccelerated from 1.7% y/y prior month to 2.1% y/y.

UK: CPI (March): 0.3% m/m vs 0.4% expected (prior: 0.4%)

• Prices have accelerated for clothes, up by 2.3% m/m (after -3% m/m prior month) and remained sustained for household goods (0.6% m/m after 1.1% m/m) and hotel-restaurants (0.7% m/m after 1.1% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.8% y/y prior month to 2.6% y/y and marginally from 3.5% to 3.4% y/y on core inflation. Despite this progress, yearly trend remained high for health (5% y/y), communication (6% y/y) and education (7.5% y/y), but progress has been seen on services (4.7% y/y after 5% y/y prior month).
• This improving trend in headline and slower trend in services could re-open the door to other rate cuts by the BoE in H2-25, or even early in May but there are still short-term upside risks related to rise in regulated prices of energy in April.