Tägliche Makro-Analyse
US: decreasing business sentiment in services and manufacturing, rising unemployment and volatile payrolls
US: Non-farm payrolls (Nov.): 64k vs 50k expected (prior: -105k)
- Job cuts were pronounced in Oct. and were back to positive in Nov.
- Past month, the large fall in payrolls were mainly due to Federal payrolls, down by 162 k and down again in Nov. by 6k.
- In Nov., payrolls were negative in manufacturing (-5k after -9 k) but have regained in construction (28 k after -1K).
- Payrolls were up by 50 k in services, after 61 k in Sept.; payrolls have rebounded in professional business services but declined for retail-trade, leisure-hospitality and government.
- The unemployment ratio has rebounded from 4.4% in Sept. to 4.6% (4.564%) in Nov. No data will be delivered for Oct. Other measures of unemployment ratio were also on the rise in Nov., illustrating fragilities and downside risks in labor.
- Wage growth was up by 0.1% m/m (0.4% m/m in Sept.) and up by 3.5% y/y.
- Risk management should justify another rate cut in Jan., based on existing downside risks to labor.
US: Retail sales (Oct.): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.2%)
- Sales were mixed, driven by discount and internet sales.
- Sales have decreased for building materials, health, gasoline and restaurants; on the opposite, sales were stronger for furniture, electronics, sport and internet sales.
- Control sales (sales ex food, gasoline, autos, building materials) were up by 0.8% m/m after -0.1% m/m prior month.
US: Manufacturing PMI (Dec.): 51.8 vs 52.1 expected (prior: 52.2)
- Flash business sentiment came lower than expected; opinions have declined on new orders (index down to 49.6 from 51.3 prior month) and production was also lower.
- Views on employment remained positive, but costs have increased; pressure from competition has limited possibility to pass through rising costs to final clients.
US: Services PMI (Dec.): 52.9 vs 54 expected (prior: 54.1)
- Sentiment has decreased in services, but the index remained above 50. new demand was cautious, and employment was lower over the month.
- Costs were on the rise and final prices have increased further.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Oct.): 5.1% as expected (prior: 5.0%)
- Claimant count (Nov.) has increased from 4.3% to 4.4% and jobless claims were up by 20.1 k after -3.9k the prior period.
- The 3-month employment has decreased by 16 k after -22 k the prior period.
- Vacancies remained on a regular rising trend over the past months.
- Labor has deteriorated significantly, and the unemployment ratio is on a clear rising trend.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Oct.): 4.7% y/y vs 4.4% expected (prior: 4.9% revised from 4.8%)
- Wage growth was above consensus expectations, but the trend continues to decline.
- Public sector wage growth has accelerated to 7.7% y/y after 6.8% y/y prior month, while wage growth in private sector has slowed down to 4.0% y/y after 4.4% y/y prior month.
- Wages in services have slowed down further, up by 4.8% after 5.0% prior month.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Dec.): 51.2 vs 50.3 expected (prior: 50.2)
- Flash data pointed to renewed optimism after the release of the budget; new orders have gained (index at 50.2), but firms remained cautious on employment.
UK: Services PMI (Dec.): 52.1 vs 51.6 expected (prior: 51.3)
- Sentiment has rebounded according to flash data; opinions have strongly rebounded for new business (index up to 52.9 after 49.8 prior month).
- Nevertheless, employment remained under constraint due to rising costs.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Dec.): 49.2 vs 49.9 expected (prior: 49.6)
- Flash estimates pointed to weakening business confidence in manufacturing.
- Production was weaker than the prior month and Germany was particularly weak over the month while production has stabilized on other countries. The German PMI was down from 48.2 to 47.7, while the French index has rebounded from 47.8 to 50.6.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Dec.): 52.6 vs 53.3 expected (prior: 53.6)
- First estimates have pointed to lower momentum in services, but they remained under growth process.
- New demand has weakened, and exports were weak. Index has decreased for France (from 51.4 to 50.2) and Germany (from 53.1 to 52.6).
Germany: Zew (Dec.): 45.8 vs 38.4 expected (prior: 38.5)
- Expectations have strongly rebounded over the month, while sentiment on current situation has deteriorated (index down from -78.8 to -81).
Italy: CPI (Nov.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)
- Final inflation has shown ongoing negative trend in monthly data; prices have declined over the month for transport, communication, leisure, and hotels-restaurants. On the opposite, they have increased for health sector.
- Yearly trend has declined from 1.3% y/y prior month to 1.1% y/y.
US: falling NY Empire business confidence (Dec.)
US: Empire manufacturing (Dec.): -3.9 vs 10 expected (prior: 18.7)
- Business sentiment has deteriorated over the month on current conditions: lower orders, shipments and also lower prices but higher employment.
- The 6-month index has strongly rebounded (from 19.1 prior month to 35.7), thanks to higher new orders and shipments but lower employment, capex and prices paid.
US: NAHB housing market index (Dec.): 39 as expected (prior: 38)
- Sentiment has slightly increased from the prior month, but the index remained at low level.
- The monthly improvement was seen on present and future sales of single-family houses.
Germany: Wholesale price (Nov.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.3%)
- Prices have accelerated to 1.5% y/y after 1.1% y/y the prior month.
Poland: CPI (Nov.): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Final data confirmed moderate inflation; prices have decreased over the month for clothes, household equipment and leisure, while they regained for fuel-transport.
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.8% y/y the prior month to 2.5% y/y.
Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Nov.): -0.5% m/m (prior: -0.3%)
- Import prices were down by 0.4% m/m as seen the prior month and down by 2.5% y/y.
- Producer prices were down by 0.5% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month) and remained stable at -1.3%y/y.
UK: a rebound in industrial production but weak services and construction
UK: Industrial production (Oct.): 1.1% m/m vs 1.0% expected (prior: -2%)
- Manufacturing production was up by 0.5% m/m after -1.7% m/m prior month; the rebound was due to activity in investment sector (1.9% m/m after -4.5% prior month) and in energy sector (2.4% m/m after -3.0% prior month). Production of consumer durable goods was down by 2.3% m/m (3.7% m/m prior month).
- Otherwise, services were down by 0.3% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month), and construction down by 0.6% m/m (0.2% m/m prior month); proxy for GDP was down by 0.1% m/m as seen the prior month.
France: CPI (Nov.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.1%)
- Final data confirmed the monthly fall in prices. Prices were down for fresh food, goods, and services (-0.5% m/m) due to falling prices in transport and communication. On the opposite, energy prices were up by 1.3% m/m.
- Yearly trend remained stable at 0.8% y/y.
Germany: CPI (Nov.): -0.5% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Final data confirmed the monthly fall in prices. Prices of household equipment and leisure services have contracted over the month, while energy prices were up by 1.2% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month.
- Yearly trend has rebounded from 2.3% y/y the prior month to 2.6% y/y.
Spain: CPI (Nov.): 0% m/m as expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Final data confirmed flat inflation over the month; this resulted from a balance between rising prices for food, clothes and transport while prices of housing, restaurant-hotels and recreation have declined over the month.
- Yearly trend remained stable from the prior month at 3.2% y/y.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (Nov.): 9.1% vs 8.8% expected (prior: 9.3%)
- The unemployment ratio has declined less than expected over the month.
Turkey: Current account (Oct.): 0.46bn USD vs 0.20bn expected (prior: 1.08bn revised from 1.11bn)
- Current account surplus has reduced over the month. Deficit on goods has increased but surplus on services has increased over the month.
- After capital flows, official reserves have decreased by USD 1.61 bn after USD -8.69 bn the prior month.
US: rebound in weekly jobless claims; lower trade deficit in Sept; SNB kept rates at 0%
US: Initial jobless claims (Dec. 6): 236k vs 220k expected (prior: 192k revised from 191k)
- Continuing claims: 1838 k after 1937 k prior week.
US: Wholesale inventories (Sept.): 0.5% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0%)
- Inventories have increased for computers, machinery and pharma products.
- Sales were down by 0.2% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month) due to falling sales of computers and machinery.
US: Trade balance (Sept.): -52.8 bn USD vs -63.1 bn expected (prior: -59.3 bn revised from -59.6 bn)
- Trade balance has improved thanks to a rebound in exports.
- Exports were up by 3% m/m (-0.2% m/m prior month); the rebound was centered on industrial components and consumer goods.
- Imports were up by 0.6% m/m after -5.2% m/m; only imports of consumer goods have rebounded over the month.
Sweden: CPI (Nov.): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.4%)
- Final data pointed to a less important fall in monthly prices than initially estimated.
- Prices in several sectors were down over the month: food, clothes, household goods, leisure and restaurants sectors.
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% y/y prior month to 2.3% y/y and core inflation from 2.8% y/y to 2.4% y/y.
Switzerland: SNB has left key rates unchanged at 0%
- The bank expects 2025 growth up around 1.5% and around 1% for 2026; inflation has been revised lower, after lower-than-expected prices recently: 0.3% y/y in 2026 (0.5% y/y previous estimates) and 0.6% in 2027 (0.7% previously).
- The bank reiterated that it should remain active in FX.
UK: RICS house price balance (Nov.): -16% vs -21% expected (prior: -19%)
- Sentiment was less negative over the month, but uncertainties remained on future sales and prices due to new taxes on properties.
Turkey: Central bank cut key rates from 39.50% to 38%.
- The cut in one-week repo rate was larger than expected; the bank has cut on lower-than-expected inflation data, mainly due to lower food prices, but remained cautious about future path of inflation and decisions remain data dependent with meeting-by-meeting approach.
US: some moderation in Employment cost index in Q3-25
US: Employment cost index (Q3-25): 0.8% q/q vs 0.9% expected (prior: 0.9%)
- Wages were up by 0.8%q after 1%q in Q2-25.
- Employment cost was up by 3.5% y/y after 3.6% y/y in Q2-25.
- Quarterly rise was less pronounced btu the yearly trend remained sustained; in the near term, this high level should be balanced by higher productivity gains.
Italy: Industrial production (Oct.): -1% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 2.7% revised from 2.8%)
- All sectors were down in terms of activity over the month except the energy sector.
- Consumer goods were down by 1.8% m/m and capital goods down by 1% m/m.
Norway: CPI (Nov.): 0.1% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.1% revised from 0.3%)
- Several sectors have shown a monthly contraction in prices such as food, household goods (Black Friday effects), transport and communication; on the opposite, some sectors have seen prices accelerating in housing, health, and hotel-restaurants.
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.1% to 3.0% y/y on headline inflation and from 3.4% to 3.0% y/y on core inflation.
Sweden: Industrial production (Oct.): -1.4% m/m (prior: 1.3% revised from 0.9%)
- Private sector production was down by 1.4% m/m due to a fall in industrial production by 6.6% m/m (5% m/m prior month) while services were up by 0.1% m/m (-0.3% m/m prior month).
- Proxy for GDP was down by 0.3% m/m after -0.1% m/m the prior month.
Sweden: Retail sales (Oct.): -0.9% m/m (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)
- Consumption was up by 2.3% y/y after 3.6% y/y the prior month.
Brazil: CPI (Nov.): 0.18% m/m vs 0.19% expected (prior: 0.09%)
- Prices (IBGA index) have declined over the month for food, household goods, health, and communication. Prices remained sustained for transport and personal goods.
- Yearly trend has declined from 4.68% y/y prior month to 4.46% y/y.
Turkey: Industrial production (Oct.): -0.8% m/m (prior: -2.1% revised from -2.2%)
- Except mining (up by 1.2% m/m), all major sectors were down over the month.
- Manufacturing production was down by 0.9% m/m after -2.2% m/m prior month.