Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: Durable goods orders (Nov.): 5.3% m/m vs 3.8% expected (prior: -2.1% revised from -2.2%)

• Orders for civil aircrafts have strongly rebounded over the month; orders for capital goods non-defense ex aircraft were up by 0.7% m/m after 0.3% m/m prior month.
• In detail, orders were mixed across sectors: a rebound was seen for metals and electrical equipment over the month, while orders in other sectors were mixed/weak.
• Shipments were down by 0.2% m/m after 0.5% m/m prior month; inventories were up by 0.2% m/m as seen the prior month.

Germany: IFO (Jan.): 87.6 vs 88.2 expected (prior: 87.6)

• Business sentiment remained stable over the month; sentiment on current situation has stabilized while expectations came lower than expected and from the prior month (index at 89.5 after 89.7 the prior month).
• By sector, sentiment was less negative in manufacturing, trade and construction sectors, while it has deteriorated over the month in services.

Spain: PPI (Dec.): 0.4% m/m (prior: -0.5% revised from -0.4%)

• Prices of energy have rebounded over the month (electricity and gas prices) but were balanced by a decline in prices for manufacturing goods.
• Yearly trend has declined from -2.5% y/y prior month to -3.0%y/y.

Poland: Retail sales (Dec.): 12.5% m/m as expected (prior: -3.3%)

• Sales have rebounded over the month in all sectors, except fuel and clothes; the rebound was driven in particular by autos, food and pharma products.
• Yearly trend has increased to 5.3% y/y after 3.1% y/y the prior month.

Brazil: Consumer confidence (Jan.): 87.3 (prior: 89.1 revised from 90.2)

• Consumer confidence has decreased over the month on both current situation and expectations.

Brazil: Current account (Dec.): -3363 M$ vs -5000 M$ expected (prior: -4956 M$ revised from -4943 M$)

• Foreign direct investment was down from USD 9820 M prior month to USD -5248 M over the month.
• On cumulated data, total current account deficit represented -3.02% of GDP in 2025 and cumulated foreign direct investment 3.41% of GDP.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 51.9 vs 52 expected (prior: 51.8)

• Flash business sentiment has slightly increased over the month; production was firmer, but exports remained weak and the rise in new orders was modest over the month.
• Opinions have decreased on employment, while costs and prices were on the rise.

US: Services PMI (Jan.): 52.5 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 52.5)

• Flash sentiment remained stable over the month, due to political uncertainties.
• Opinions were constructive on new business, but exports remained weak; opinions have slightly increased on employment.
• Rises in prices were limited by higher competition.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Jan.): 56.4 vs 54 expected (prior: 52.9)

• Final consumer confidence has improved more than expected from the prior month.
• Opinions on current situation and expectations have strongly rebounded from the prior month.
• Views have improved on future financial situation and business expectations have rebounded over the month.
• Households have less worries about unemployment and expect lower rates and gas prices.
• Willingness to buy autos and houses have regained over the month.
• The 12M inflation expectations have declined from 4.2% to 4.0%; the 5-10y inflation expectations have slightly increased from 3.2% prior month to 3.3%y/y.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 49.4 vs 49.2 expected (prior: 48.8)

• Flash sentiment in manufacturing has regained from the prior month but the index remained below 50.
• Sentiment has improved in France (51 after 50.7) and modestly in Germany (48.7 after 47).
• Sentiment has improved on new orders and production, but it was mainly domestically driven as new export orders decreased.
• Sentiment on employment has decreased, mainly in Germany; selling prices were slightly down while costs continue to rise.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Jan.): 51.9 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 52.4)

• Flash estimates have pointed to lower sentiment in services, but the index remained above 50.
• Sentiment has sharply decreased in France (47.9 after 50.1), reflecting political uncertainties; in Germany, sentiment has regained (53.3 after 52.7), thanks to higher new business.
• Employment remained stable; selling prices remained on the rise.

France: Business confidence (Jan.): 99 as expected (prior: 99)

• Confidence in the manufacturing sectors has increased from 102 prior month to 105.
• Sentiment was better oriented on production and less negative on new orders.
• Separately, sentiment was stable in services.

Sweden: Unemployment rate (Dec.): 8.8% as expected (prior: 9.1%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month in parallel with some decrease in labor force.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Jan.): -16 as expected (prior: -17)

• Sentiment has improved on personal financial situation but worries remained about the economic outlook (past and future).
• Preference for saving has increased further over the month.

UK: Retail sales (Dec.): 0.4% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.1%)

• Sales were mainly driven by online shopping, while sales in other sectors were negative over the month.

UK: Manufacturing PMI (Jan.): 51.6 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 50.6)

• Business sentiment has improved over the month thanks to rising opinions on new orders and production. Exports have also rebounded and demand for restocking has regained from clients.
• Sentiment has decreased on employment.

UK: Services PMI (Jan.): 54.3 vs 51.7 expected (prior: 51.4)

• Sentiment has rebounded over the month and new business has increased further over the month.
• Demand has regained after the release of the budget.
• Employment has strongly decreased facing a new rebound in labor costs.

US: GDP (3Q T): 4.4% q/q vs 4.3% expected (prior: 3.8%)

• The third estimate of US economic growth for the third quarter has been revised slightly upward, from an annualized rate of 4.3% to 4.4%. The slight increase reflects stronger-than-expected contributions from net exports and less drag from gross private investment.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan 17): 200k vs 209k expected (prior: 199k revised from 198k)

• US unemployment claims held steady at 200k last week, indicating minimal layoffs and a resilient labor market. Meanwhile, continuing claims dropped to 1.85 mn, the lowest level since November, defying expectations of 1.89 mn.

US: Core PCE deflator (Nov): 0.16% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.21%)

• The latest Personal Income and Outlays report reveals robust consumer spending, subdued inflation and disappointing income growth.
• Personal income growth slowed to 0.1% m/m in October before picking up slightly to 0.3% m/m in November, falling short of the 0.4% m/m expected. In both months, income growth was primarily driven by employee compensation.
• Meanwhile, consumer spending showed surprising strength. Real personal spending rose by 0.3% m/m in both October and November, a notable acceleration from the 0.1% m/m gain recorded in September.
• Inflation, as measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, remained subdued. Core PCE rose by just 0.21% m/m in October and slowed further to 0.16% m/m in November.
• On an annual basis, both core and headline PCE inflation came in at 2.8% in November, slightly up from 2.7% in October, aligning with market expectations.
• The data underscores a resilient consumer sector with moderating income growth and decelerating core inflation readings. However, the data is old and impacted by shutdown distortions. December data will bring more clarity on the outlook of inflation.

US: Construction spending (Oct.): 0.5% m/m (prior: 0.1%)

• Residential construction has strongly rebounded over the month, up by 1.3% m/m after -1.4% m/m the prior month.

US: Pending home sales (Dec.): -9.3% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 3.3%)

• All major regions have seen a decline in sales over the month.

Switzerland: M3 (Dec.): 4.6% y/y (prior: 4.9%)

• M1 growth has slowed down from 21.2% y/y prior month to 18.4% y/y.
• M2 growth has also slowed down from 15.8% y/y to 13.6% y/y; saving deposits were on a slower trend, up by 4.4% y/y after 5.7% y/y.

UK: CPI (Dec.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices came higher over the month for food, energy, household goods and transport; on the opposite, prices for leisure came down; services were up by 0.4% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has slightly increased from 3.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y; services were up by 4.5% y/y after 4.4% y/y prior month.

UK: PPI Input prices (Dec.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)

• Prices of materials were down by 0.2% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month) and fuel prices up by 0.2% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.1% y/y prior month to 0.8% y/y.

UK: PPI Output prices (Dec.): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Energy prices were down over the month, while food prices were on the rise.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 3.4% y/y.