Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: Durable goods orders (Jun P): -9.3% m/m vs -10.7% expected (prior: 16.5% revised from 16.4%)

• June's durable goods print signals soft momentum extending into the third quarter. Headline orders fell sharply after Boeing reported a slowdown in June, while orders ex-transportation decelerated from 0.5% to 0.2%.
• Core capital goods shipments, an input for the GDP calculation, increased 0.4% (vs. 0.5% prior). However, core capital goods orders, a proxy for investment in equipment excluding aircraft and military hardware, unexpectedly dropped by 0.7% after an upwardly revised 2% gain in May, suggesting lower shipments ahead.
• This report suggests that companies remained cautious about long-term investment planning due to trade and government policy uncertainty.

Germany: IFO (Jul): 88.6 vs 89.0 expected (prior: 88.4)

• German IFO slightly disappointed but edged higher compared to the previous month. The rise in business climate reflected an improvement of 0.3pt in current conditions to 86.5 and a 0.1pt increase in expectations to 90.7.
• Sector-wise, manufacturing and construction led the uptick, while trade and other services edged lower.
• Expectations in the construction sector have surged, likely translating optimism around Germany's fiscal shift.

UK: GFK consumer confidence (Jul): -19 vs -20 expected (prior: -18)

• The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for the UK edged down, slipping from a six-month high as households grew increasingly cautious amid rising concerns over taxes and inflation.
• There are growing speculations over possible tax hikes in the upcoming Autumn Budget and fears of renewed inflationary pressure.

UK: Retail sales (Jun): 0.9% m/m vs 1.2% expected (prior: -2.8% revised from -2.7%)

• Retail sales recovered from May's sharp decline but still underperformed in June, leading to a tepid 0.2% growth for the second quarter. Paired with subdued consumer confidence and cautious household spending, the figures signal an economic slowdown during this period.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jul 19): 217k vs 226k expected (prior: 221k)

• Applications for US unemployment benefits fell for the sixth straight week, underscoring the labor market's resilience. However, continuing claims remained unchanged at 1.96 million, a stubbornly high figure that could signal upward pressure on the unemployment rate.
• The July jobs report, due next week, is anticipated to show a slight rise in unemployment to 4.2%, reflecting challenges faced by many workers in finding new employment opportunities.

US: Services PMI (Jul P): 55.2 vs 53.0 expected (prior: 52.9)

• US business activity grew at a sharply increased rate in July, according to early flash PMI data, marking a strong start to the third quarter.
• Firms saw a steady rise in new business, even as demand from foreign customers declined. However, input costs surged at an accelerated rate, pushing output prices to their highest increase since April 2023.
• At the same time, robust domestic demand caused backlogs to climb to their highest level in three years. This growing pressure on capacity prompted firms to ramp up hiring at the fastest pace since January.
• The composite PMI surged to 54.6, surpassing expectations of 52.9, driven by robust growth in the services sector, which more than compensated for a contraction in manufacturing.

US: Manufacturing PMI (Jul P): 49.5 vs 52 expected (prior: 52.9)

• Flash data reveals that Manufacturing PMI slipped below the critical 50 mark in July, signaling contraction. Factory production growth slowed as new orders declined for the first time this year. Employment and purchase inventories also fell, marking their first declines since April.

US: New home sales (Jun): 627k vs 650k expected (prior: 623k)

• The data reveal sustained pressure on the housing market, with elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty prompting many potential buyers to postpone their purchasing plans.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Jul P): 51.2 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 50.5)

• Eurozone services sentiment gained momentum in July, exceeding expectations to reach a six-month high, even as looming trade tensions with the US cast a shadow over the outlook.
• While private business activity showed signs of recovery, the risk of incoming tariffs threatens to stall this momentum.
• New business rose for the first time in six months, signaling improving demand, while employment in the sector increased, reflecting growing confidence among firms about future workloads. Cost pressures eased slightly, with input prices rising at a slower pace and the rate of price increases passed on to customers also moderating.
• As a result, the composite PMI edged up from 50.6 to 51.0, surpassing expectations of 50.7. On a country level, Germany’s composite PMI dipped slightly from 50.4 to 50.3, while France saw a modest improvement, rising from 49.2 to 49.6.

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Jul P): 49.8 as expected (prior: 49.5)

• Manufacturing showed a slight improvement from the previous month but remained below the critical 50 threshold, reflecting continued contraction.
• US tariffs, which impact goods, appear to be weighing on manufacturers' confidence.
• The latest data pointed to the slowest pace of contraction in the sector since July 2022, as output inched higher and job losses eased to their mildest rate since June 2023. However, demand remained a concern, with new orders continuing to decline, underscoring persistent weakness. On the pricing front, input costs fell again, though the decline was modest.

UK: Services PMI (Jul P): 51.2 vs 52.9 expected (prior: 52.8)

• The latest PMI came in below expectations, highlighting sluggish growth and weak employment alongside persistently high inflation. With the Bank of England expressing growing concerns about the labor market, this report likely cements the case for an interest rate cut in August.
• The composite PMI slowed from 52.0 to 51.0, falling short of the anticipated 51.8, signaling a further loss of economic momentum.

Eurozone: ECB keeps its policy rate unchanged at 2%

• The ECB has adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach, holding interest rates steady with the deposit rate at 2%. While the Governing Council refrained from committing to further rate cuts, its language left the door open for additional easing if necessary.
• In its policy statement, the ECB emphasized that the disinflationary continues to progress, but uncertainty remains exceptionally high due to ongoing trade disputes. This signals the possibility of further monetary easing later this year, should economic conditions deteriorate.
• We anticipate the ECB will lower its policy rate by 25 basis points before the year’s end.

US: Existing home sales (Jun): 3.93M vs 4.00M expected (prior: 4.04M revised from 4.03M)

• US existing home sales dropped by 2.7% in June, hitting a nine-month low as record-high prices and elevated borrowing costs continued to weigh on buyers.

Eurozone: Consumer confidence (Jul P): -14.7 vs -15.0 expected (prior: -15.3)

• Eurozone consumer confidence showed a modest improvement, exceeding expectations, but remains significantly below its long-term average.

US: Richmond Fed manufacturing (July): -20 vs -2 expected (prior: -8 revised from -7)

• Business sentiment has declined on current situation, while the 6-month view has slightly improved from the prior month.
• On current situation, opinions have deteriorated on all major sub-indicators, such as new orders, shipments, capex and employment. Prices paid have declined over the month.
• The 6-month view index has improved, mainly driven by higher new orders.
• Contrary to New York and Philly Fed surveys, Richmond index was back to the lows seen in Sept.2024.

Poland: Retail sales (June): -1.8% m/m (prior: -3.2%)

• Real sales have contracted for the second month; all sectors were down except fuels and clothes over the month.
• Yearly real trend has moderated from 4.4% y/y prior month to 2.2% y/y.