Tägliche Makro-Analyse

Eurozone: PPI (Feb): -0.7% m/m vs -0.6% expected (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.7%)

• Producer prices cooled further in February. Energy costs fell by 2.4%, reversing a 1.3% rise the month before, while prices for non-durable goods slipped 0.2% for a second month running.
• The deceleration was broad-based: intermediate goods inflation eased to 0.3% from 1%, capital goods to 0.3% from 0.6%, and durable goods to 0.2% from 0.8%.
• Country-level moves were uneven but mostly down. Spain saw the sharpest drop (-3.1%), followed by Ireland (-2.6%). Germany registered a modest 0.5% decline, France a 0.2% fall.

 

Eurozone: Retail sales (Feb): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0.0% revised from -0.1%)

• Sales of food, drink and tobacco slipped 0.5%, snapping a two-month streak of gains, while non-food purchases flatlined after two consecutive declines.
• By contrast, fuel trade perked up, rising 0.7% and undoing the prior month’s 0.8% fall.
• Across the big economies, the picture was mostly softer: Germany led the pullback (-0.6%), followed by the Netherlands (-0.3%) and France (-0.1%). Italy and Spain were unchanged.

 

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Mar): 3.0% as expected (prior: 3.0%)

• The unemployment rate came in line with expectations.

 

Germany: Factory orders (Feb): 0.9% m/m vs 3.0% expected (prior: -11.1%)

• German factory orders picked up ahead of the Iran war, though by less than forecasters had hoped. Excluding large-scale contracts, orders rose a sturdier 3.5%.
• Looking ahead, higher public outlays on infrastructure and defence should lend support at home. Even so, the Iran conflict threatens to sap manufacturing sentiment and muddy the outlook for further gains in orders.

US: Durable goods orders (Feb P): -1.4% m/m vs -1.2% expected (prior: -0.5% revised from 0.0%)

• US business-equipment orders rebounded in February, hinting that firms front-loaded investment ahead of escalating tensions with Iran.
• The headline was dragged down by a 5.4% fall in transportation equipment, as nondefense aircraft orders slumped 28.6% to $19.2bn. Excluding transport, orders rose 0.8%, with gains in primary metals (2.2% to $28.6bn) and machinery (1.5% to $41.1bn).
• Bookings for core capital goods (nondefense, ex-aircraft) increased 0.6% after a downwardly revised 0.4% drop, while shipments in the same category, feeding into equipment investment in GDP, climbed 0.9%.

 

Spain: PMI Services (Mar): 53.3 vs 50.6 expected (prior: 51.9)

• Spain’s services sentiment beat expectations in March, lifted by stronger new orders, even as growth slowed to a nine-month low amid uncertainty from the Middle East conflict.
• In line with peers, input costs jumped at the fastest pace in nearly three years, driven by higher energy prices.

• Output prices rose at the quickest rate since August 2025.

US: Initial jobless claims (March 28): 202k vs 212k expected (prior: 211k revised from 210k)

• Continuing claims: 1841k vs 1837k expected (prior: 1816k)
• Initial claims fell to one of the lowest levels in the last two years, confirming that the labor market remains stuck in a "low-hire, low-fire" phase.

 

US: Trade balance (Feb): -57.3 bn USD vs -60.6 bn expected (prior: -54.7 bn revised from -54.5 bn)

• Imports: +4.3% vs -0.2% expected (prior: -0.6%)
• Exports: +4.2% vs -2.3% expected (prior: +5.6%)
• The trade deficit slightly widened in February, but less than expected. Exports were driven by gold and natural gas shipments, and imports by computers, semiconductors and automobiles.

 

Switzerland: CPI (March): 0.2% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• CPI y/y: 0.3% vs 0.5% expected (prior: 0.1%)
• Core CPI: 0.4% y/y as expected (prior: 0.4%)
• Unsurprisingly, prices for petroleum products rose sharply in March, +10.6% m/m, pushing up imported inflation by 1.3pp to -0.3% y/y, its highest level in more than two years.
• By contrast, domestic inflation fell back 0.1pp to its January level of 0.5% y/y, or 0.2% ex rents, which confirms that inflationary pressures remain muted.
• Swiss inflation is comparatively insulated from rising oil prices: energy’s weight in the Swiss CPI is roughly half that of the eurozone, and electricity tariffs are regulated. On top of that, a strong franc is reinforcing disinflationary pressures. Taken together, these factors make a rate hike in 2026 unlikely.

 

Italy: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.0% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.6%)

• Y/y: 1.6% vs 2.1% expected (prior: 2.5%)

US: Manufacturing PMI (March): 52.3 vs 52.4 expected (prior: 51.6)

• Final data have shown that business confidence has increased from the prior month, but slightly less than initially estimated.
• Opinions have increased on production and new orders, but the demand was mainly domestic driven while exports were under constraints.
• Moreover, the demand was fueled by a stock rebuilding process with the target to save on prices.
• Costs were on a strong rise and selling prices have also increased; employment remained stable over the month.

 

US: ISM Manufacturing (March): 52.7 vs 52.3 expected (prior: 52.4)

• Business confidence has increased over the month: the move was driven by firmer production and rising delivery time (rising disruption).
• Opinions on new orders, exports and backlog of orders have decreased over the month. Employment remained quite stable, but the related index was below 50.
• Prices paid have surged over the month, and the related index was back to its level seen in 2022.

 

US: ADP Employment change (March): 62k vs 40k expected (prior: 66k revised from 63k)

• Job creations were firmer for small firms, up by 85 k 60 k the prior month. Creations were more negative than prior month for medium firms (-20k) and large firms (-4 k).
• Despite positive surprise in headline numbers, the structure of creations shows ongoing fragilities.

 

US: Retail sales (Feb.): 0.6% m/m vs 0.5% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from -0.2%)

• Sales were sustained over the month; they regained for autos, health, clothes, sport goods and gasoline; internet sales were also sustained, and restaurants (services) were also positive.
• On the opposite, food and furniture were down over the month; core sales (sales ex autos, building materials, gasoline and food) were up by 0.5% m/m after a modest 0.2% m/m.
• The consumer sector was resilient just ahead of the rise energy prices.

 

Eurozone: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 6.2% vs 6.1% expected (prior: 6.1%)

• Unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

 

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (March): 51.6 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 50.8)

• Final business confidence has increased more than initially estimated. Sentiment on new orders remained stable from the prior month.
• Situation by country was mixed: sentiment declined sharply in Spain (index from 50 prior month to 48.7) on a sharp fall in new orders; confidence was also slightly lower in France than initially estimated (index at 50 after 50.1) with falling new orders (index at 46.9).
• Views have regained in Germany (52.2) and Italy (51.3) on higher new orders.
• Production was firmer but with large disparities across countries; time of delivery has increased with disruption in maritime transport; exports remained stable; employment was adjusted lower by firms while costs and selling prices have surged over the month.

 

Italy: Unemployment rate (Feb.): 5.3% vs 5.2% expected (prior: 5.2% revised from 5.1%)

• Unemployed has increased over the month.

 

Poland: PMI Manufacturing (March): 48.7 vs 47.1 expected (prior: 47.1)

• Business confidence has regained over the month, but the index remained below 50.
• New orders were less depressed over the month, the index regaining from 43.8 prior month to 46.3.

 

Sweden: PMI Manufacturing (March): 56.3 (prior: 56 revised from 56.1)

• Business confidence increased, but this was due to a strong rise in delivery time (disruption in production or transport); opinions have decreased on production, orders, inventories and exports over the month.

 

Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI (March): 53.3 vs 47 expected (prior: 47.4)

• Business confidence has regained from the prior month, but this was also due to a large rebound in delivery time; other components were positively oriented such as production, orders, and inventories.
• Employment has decreased and prices paid have surged over the month.
• Separately, the Services PMI has increased from 54.2 prior month to 57.2. Views remained positive on new orders, employment and in prices in this sector.

 

UK: Manufacturing PMI (March): 51 vs 51.4 expected (prior: 51.7)

• Final business confidence has decreased more than initially expected; views were more negative over the month on production, employment while delivery time has increased due to disruption in several sectors.
• Costs were on a sharp rise and selling prices have increased in parallel.

 

Brazil: PMI Manufacturing (March): 49 (prior: 47.3)

• Business confidence has increased over the month with rising new orders, but both indices remained below 50.

 

Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (March): 47.9 (prior: 49.3)

• Business confidence has weakened over the month, with falling new orders (from 49.6 to 46.9).