Tägliche Makro-Analyse

US: GDP (3Q T): 4.4% q/q vs 4.3% expected (prior: 3.8%)

• The third estimate of US economic growth for the third quarter has been revised slightly upward, from an annualized rate of 4.3% to 4.4%. The slight increase reflects stronger-than-expected contributions from net exports and less drag from gross private investment.

US: Initial jobless claims (Jan 17): 200k vs 209k expected (prior: 199k revised from 198k)

• US unemployment claims held steady at 200k last week, indicating minimal layoffs and a resilient labor market. Meanwhile, continuing claims dropped to 1.85 mn, the lowest level since November, defying expectations of 1.89 mn.

US: Core PCE deflator (Nov): 0.16% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.21%)

• The latest Personal Income and Outlays report reveals robust consumer spending, subdued inflation and disappointing income growth.
• Personal income growth slowed to 0.1% m/m in October before picking up slightly to 0.3% m/m in November, falling short of the 0.4% m/m expected. In both months, income growth was primarily driven by employee compensation.
• Meanwhile, consumer spending showed surprising strength. Real personal spending rose by 0.3% m/m in both October and November, a notable acceleration from the 0.1% m/m gain recorded in September.
• Inflation, as measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, remained subdued. Core PCE rose by just 0.21% m/m in October and slowed further to 0.16% m/m in November.
• On an annual basis, both core and headline PCE inflation came in at 2.8% in November, slightly up from 2.7% in October, aligning with market expectations.
• The data underscores a resilient consumer sector with moderating income growth and decelerating core inflation readings. However, the data is old and impacted by shutdown distortions. December data will bring more clarity on the outlook of inflation.

US: Construction spending (Oct.): 0.5% m/m (prior: 0.1%)

• Residential construction has strongly rebounded over the month, up by 1.3% m/m after -1.4% m/m the prior month.

US: Pending home sales (Dec.): -9.3% m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 3.3%)

• All major regions have seen a decline in sales over the month.

Switzerland: M3 (Dec.): 4.6% y/y (prior: 4.9%)

• M1 growth has slowed down from 21.2% y/y prior month to 18.4% y/y.
• M2 growth has also slowed down from 15.8% y/y to 13.6% y/y; saving deposits were on a slower trend, up by 4.4% y/y after 5.7% y/y.

UK: CPI (Dec.): 0.4% m/m as expected (prior: -0.2%)

• Prices came higher over the month for food, energy, household goods and transport; on the opposite, prices for leisure came down; services were up by 0.4% m/m after -0.2% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has slightly increased from 3.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y; services were up by 4.5% y/y after 4.4% y/y prior month.

UK: PPI Input prices (Dec.): -0.2% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)

• Prices of materials were down by 0.2% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month) and fuel prices up by 0.2% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 1.1% y/y prior month to 0.8% y/y.

UK: PPI Output prices (Dec.): 0% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Energy prices were down over the month, while food prices were on the rise.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 3.4% y/y.

Germany: Zew (Jan.): 59.6 vs 50 expected (prior: 45.8)

• Expectations have strongly rebounded, and the index was back to the highs seen in 2020-21.
• Sentiment on current situation has also improved (index at -72.7 after -81 the prior month).
• By sector, sentiment has improved in industrial sectors, with a large rebound seen in autos, pharma, engineering and construction.

Germany: PPI (Dec.): -0.2% m/m as expected (prior: 0%)

• Prices have contracted over the month due to falling prices of energy and food over the month.
• Prices of basic and capital goods were slightly up over the month.
• Yearly trend has declined further, from -2.3% y/y prior month to -2.5% y/y.

Switzerland: PPI-import prices (Dec.): -0.2% m/m (prior: -0.5%)

• Prices remained under contraction over the month.
• Import prices were down by 0.5% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month) and producer prices down by 0.1% m/m (-0.5% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined further at -1.8% y/y (-1.6% y/y prior month). Import prices were down by 2.8% y/y (-2.5% y/y prior month) and producer prices down by 1.3% y/y (-1.2% y/y prior month).

UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Nov.): 5.1% as expected (prior: 5.1%)

• Unemployment has increased by 103 k over the 3-month period (64 k the previous period).
• Claimant count in Dec. was up to 4.4% after 4.3% the prior month and jobless claims have increased to 17.9 k after -3.3k the prior month.

UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Nov.): 4.7% y/y vs 4.6% expected (prior: 4.8% revised from 4.7%)

• Wage growth has continued to moderate but disparities still exist across sector.
• Wage in public sector remained sustained, up by 7.8% y/y (7.7% y/y prior month); in services, wage growth remained below 5% at 4.8% y/y (4.9% y/y prior month).
• Wages were up by 4.2% y/y in manufacturing after 4.4% y/y prior month.
• Labor market remained on slowdown trend and unemployment on a gradual rise, while wage growth adjusts.

Eurozone: CPI (Dec.): 0.2% m/m as expected (prior: -0.3%)

• Final data confirmed the first estimate of monthly inflation; energy prices were down by 0.8% m/m (0.9% m/m prior month), and good prices down by 0.3% m/m (-0.1% m/m prior month), while services have rebounded (0.7% m/m after -0.8% m/m prior month).
• Yearly trend has declined from 2.1% y/y to 1.9% y/y (2.0% y/y in first estimate); prices for food (2.6% y/y) and services (3.4% y/y) stayed above the 2% trend while prices of goods remained on a downward trend (0.4% y/y after 0.5% y/y prior month) and energy prices have declined further (-1.9% y/y after -0.5% y/y prior month).
• Headline inflation could decline further entering 2026 if energy prices continue to fall and euro currency to remain firm.