Tägliche Makro-Analyse
Freitag, Juli 24
Business sentiment (PMI): a strong rise in services in July
US: Manufacturing PMI (July): 53.8 vs 54.4 expected (prior: 53.9)
- Preliminary business sentiment has decreased over the month, on lower production, exports, domestic demand and new orders.
- Inventories were on the rise. Weak demand and worries on trade have driven sentiment lower; there was a modest rise in employment over the month.
- Costs have increased modestly but selling prices remained on the rise.
US: Services PMI (July): 53.6 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.2)
- Flash estimate has pointed to a strong rise in sentiment in services; domestic demand was firmer, boosted by sport event, while exports have decreased.
- A modest rise in employment was seen; a strong rise was seen in selling prices.
US: New home sales (June): 628k vs 607k expected (prior: 618k revised from 580k)
- Home sales have rebounded, and prior month data were strongly revised up.
- Over 4 districts, three have shown a rebound in new home sales.
- Average prices were down by 9.5% y/y after -5.3% y/y prior month.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (July): -17 vs -22 expected (prior: -23)
- Consumer confidence has improved and turned less negative than prior month.
- Views have improved on personal finances and were less negative on future economic situation and purchases.
UK: Retail sales (June): 1.1% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 1.2%)
- Sales (volume terms) remained sustained over the month; clothes and internet sales were strong over the month, supported by sport events and hot weather-related goods.
Germany: GFK consumer confidence (Aug.): -29.6 vs -28.5 expected (prior: -29.3 revised from -29.2)
- Consumer confidence remained weak over the month. Views have deteriorated on future income and preference for saving has gained further.
Spain: PPI (June): 0% m/m (prior: 1%)
- Prices of energy and manufacturing products have declined over the month, but they rebounded for electricity, transport and basic metals.
- Yearly trend has declined from 10.5% y/y prior month to 7%y/y
UK: Manufacturing PMI (July): 52.8 vs 52 expected (prior: 52.5)
- Preliminary business sentiment has strongly rebounded over the month; the improvement was broad-based, with rising new orders, higher production and exports to US and Eurozone, and also some rise in employment.
- Input costs (related to oil and raw materials) have slightly decreased over the month.
UK: Services PMI (July): 51.8 vs 49.4 expected (prior: 48.8)
- Flash sentiment has strongly rebounded, and the index was back above the 50 level; activity has rebounded (thanks to consumer and hospitality sector), and new orders have regained but the related index remained just below 50.
- Views on employment were lower than prior month; costs have moderated over the month.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (July): 52 vs 51.5 expected (prior: 51.4)
- Flash sentiment in manufacturing has increased more than expected; new orders have increased further, the index being close to 51 (data collected in 12th-20th July).
- Sentiment has decreased in France (from 51.2 to 50; contrary to local business sentiment index released yesterday); it has rebounded in Germany (from 50.3 to 52.2) and German new orders were up to 51.8 from 50.3.
- Production has rebounded in all countries except France according first estimate, but new export orders were still marginally down over the month.
- Employment has slightly decreased while rise in prices has moderated.
Eurozone: Services PMI (July): 51.9 vs 50.2 expected (prior: 50)
- The flash index for services has regained over the month and new orders were up to 52.6 from 48.9 the prior month.
- The French (49.8) and German (49.6) index have both slightly increased over the month but remained below 50; this supposed services indices in Italy and Spain to remain above 50.
- Activity and prices have increased, and employment has also regained over the month.
Sweden: Unemployment rate (June): 8.9% vs 8.8% expected (prior: 8.8%)
- Seasonal data have pointed to a rise in unemployed over the month.
Donnerstag, Juli 23
The ECB on hold but worried by upside risks on inflation
US: Initial jobless claims (July 18): 187k vs 210k expected (prior: 209k revised from 209k)
- Continuing claims: 1796 k after 1798 k the prior week.
ECB meeting: no change in key rates (2.25%) as expected
- The statement remained cautious about future inflation risks.
- According to ECB, energy prices remain volatile but close to central ECB scenario; there is a high level of uncertainty, and the impact of energy prices could be seen later on.
- The ECB is watching developments on oil prices and also to watch direct and indirect effects of higher energy prices.
- The monetary policy is seen as “well positioned”; this mention could suppose key rates to remain on hold for some time.
- The ECB maintains its approach based on data dependence, meeting-by-meeting decision, with no pre-commitment on the path of key rates.
- From Q&A:
- The ECB is waiting for more impacts from energy prices, but second round effects have not yet been seen in the economy (core inflation propagation and wage growth).
- The ECB sees downside risks on growth and upside risks on inflation; risks on inflation came from volatile and higher for longer energy prices (and worrying recent developments), more fragmented supply chain and food prices under rising pressures from climate changes.
- Financial conditions have tightened since the June meeting.
- Today decision was unanimous, but some members begun to think about possible rate hike.
- The way to a potential September rate adjustment depends on core inflation (2nd round effects and transmission of the monetary policy); the nature of the energy shocks (duration, intensity and propagation) will influence the decision.
- While our central scenario favors the ECB to remain on hold, renewed conflict, no renewed MoU and rising oil and gas prices back to previous highs could oblige the ECB to hike in September.
France: Business confidence (Jul.): 97 vs 95 expected (prior: 95 revised from 94)
- Business confidence in the manufacturing sector has increased from the prior month (index at 101 after 100).
- Opinions have improved on past production and were less negative than prior month on new orders (domestic and foreign orders) and future production.
- Separately, confidence has also regained in services over the month.
Poland: Unemployment rate (June): 5.8% as expected (prior: 5.9%)
- Unemployed has decreased over the month.
Mittwoch, Juli 22
UK inflation on declining trend
UK: CPI (June): 0.1% m/m as expected (prior: 0.2%)
- Prices of energy were down by 1.8% m/m (-0.5% m/m prior month) and prices for clothes and food were also down over the month.
- Services were up by 0.5% m/m (0.4% m/m prior month) due to new rises in transport, package holidays and insurance sectors.
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.8% to 2.6% y/y and services from 3.7% y/y to 3.6% y/y. Core inflation remained quite stable around 2.6% y/y
- This should comfort BoE's wait-and-see strategy and reinforces probability the BoE to remain on hold in H2-26.
UK: PPI Input prices (June): -2.0% m/m vs -0.8% expected (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.2%)
- Prices of materials have declined by 2.2% m/m, while fuel prices have rebounded by 4.5% m/m.
- Yearly trend has declined from 9.3% y/y prior month to 7.3% y/y.
UK: PPI Output prices (June): 0% m/m vs -0.2% expected (prior: 0.3% revised from 0.5%)
- Oil prices were down by 5.9% m/m; core inflation was down by 0.5% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month).
- Yearly trend has declined from 3.7% y/y prior month to 3.5% y/y.
Poland: Retail sales (June): 1.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: -1.7%)
- Sales have rebounded driven by higher purchases of autos and clothes over the month.
- Sales were up by 6.2% y/y after 3.0% y/y prior month.
Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (July): 101.2 (prior: 102)
- Business sentiment has decreased over the month, due to lower orders, while inventories of finished goods have increased.
- Sentiment on production and exports remained positive.
Dienstag, Juli 21
German Zew in rebound
Germany: Zew (July): 26.3 vs 15.3 expected (prior: 10.5)
- Expectations have strongly rebounded over the month after very depressed level seen past April; sentiment on current situation has improved (index less negative: -77.6 after -81 prior month).
- By sector, sentiment has improved for chemical, engineering, retail and construction, while it has deteriorated for autos.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (May): 4.9% as expected (prior: 4.9%)
- Claimant count (June) was stable at 4.4%; jobless claims were up by 6.7k after 1.2 k revised lower) and payrolls were down by 4K (+3k the prior month); the largest fall in payrolls were seen in March-April.
- The 3M (March-May) employment was up by 148 k after 99 k the prior period.
- June vacancies have stabilized at 712 k (710 k prior month) after a regular decreasing trend over the past months.
- Labor has stabilized but it remains fragile.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (May): 4.3% y/y vs 4.5% expected (prior: 4.4%)
- Trend in wage growth remained on moderation; but wages in public sector have shown accelerating trend, up by 5.5% y/y after 5.2% y/y the prior month; wage growth in services has moderated to 4.6% y/y after 4.7% y/y.
- Global data and downward trend could satisfy the BoE, but economic policy changes could fuel large disparities across sectors and concerns on wage growth trend.
Switzerland: Trade balance (June): 3.80 Bn CHF (prior: 5.53Bn)
- Real exports were down by 6% m/m (4.4% m/m prior month) and real imports were down by 1.6% m/m (0.5% m/m the prior month).
Montag, Juli 20
Declining German PPI inflation thanks to energy
Germany: PPI (June): -0.3% m/m as expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Prices of energy were down by 1.8% m/m (-0.4% m/m prior month), while basic goods prices were up by 0.7% m/m (1.4% m/m prior month).
- Yearly trend has declined from 2.2% y/y prior month to 1.8% y/y; energy prices have declined from 2.5% y/y to 0.4% y/y, while basic goods prices were up by 5.1% y/y after 4.2% y/y prior month.
Poland: Industrial production (June): 2% m/m vs 2.7% expected (prior: -0.8%)
- Industrial activity has rebounded over the month, driven by manufacturing sector, up by 2.5% m/m (-0.8% m/m prior month); on the opposite, activity has contracted over the month in mining and electricity segments.
Poland: PPI (June): -0.2%m/m vs -0.3% expected (prior: 0%)
- Yearly trend declined from 2.4% y/y prior month to 1.7% y/y. prices of mining were down by 1.7% m/m after 2.7% m/m prior month.