Tägliche Makro-Analyse
PMI manufacturing and services: higher in the UK, mixed in the US and lower in the eurozone
US: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 56 vs 55.5 expected (prior: 55.9)
- Flash index has pointed to modest increase in sentiment contrary to consensus expectations.
- Views on activity were positive while new orders have increased slowly; export performances were better oriented and employment has strongly regained.
- Selling prices have accelerated further over the month.
US: Services PMI (Oct.): 57.9 vs 58 expected (prior: 58.8)
- Flash sentiment in services has decreased from the prior month on slightly slower activity, despite new orders remained positive.
- Exports have rebounded and employment has just moderately increased over the month.
- Selling prices remained on the rise.
Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 52.4 vs 52.8 expected (prior: 52.9)
- Flash estimate of business sentiment has decreased more than expected from the prior month, but index remained above 50.
- PMI has decreased for France (from 50.6 prior month to 49.3; new orders at 44.9), being back into contraction territory. Index has increased further in Germany (54.2) and in other countries. Nevertheless, German new orders have slightly decreased from the high level of 54.4 prior month to 53.6.
- Sentiment on exports has slightly decreased over the month; inventories have increased and disruption to supply chain was still mentioned.
- Input costs have increased due to energy, fuel and transport costs; prices have increased but slowly compared to past months.
Eurozone: Services PMI (Oct.): 51.7 vs 52.5 expected (prior: 53)
- Flash estimate has decreased more than expected over the month and new orders have also declined but both indices remained above the 50 level.
- The largest decrease was seen in France (from 51.2 to 48.4), below the 50 level, and new orders came back at low level of 45.9 (from 49.7).
- Business sentiment has also decreased in Germany (from 52.9 to 51.7) but remained above 50.
- Employment has slightly decreased, while prices and selling prices have increased but at slower pace than prior months.
UK: GFK consumer confidence (Oct.): -24 vs -14 expected (prior: -13)
- Consumer confidence has decreased over the month with falling opinions on financial situation, economic outlook and future purchases.
- The index was back to the low seen in April.
UK: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.4% m/m vs -0.1% expected (prior: 0.7% revised from 0.5%)
- Sales decreased more than expected over the month, but prior month’s data were higher.
- Internet sales have decreased the most over the month, while clothes and household goods remained positive.
UK: Manufacturing PMI (Oct.): 52.8 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.9)
- Flash business confidence has regained more than expected over the month and new orders have increased to 52.1 from 51.2 prior month.
- Activity was firmer related to AI investment and exports were better oriented. Employment has slightly declined over the month, while costs remained on the rise.
- Selling prices have increased but at slower pace.
UK: Services PMI (Oct.): 53.1 vs 51.8 expected (prior: 51.9)
- Flash index pointed in favor a new rebound in activity and in new orders (index up to 53.3 from 50.3 the prior month).
- Activity was boosted by AI and related services in technology.
- Employment has increased again over the month; selling prices have increased further but at a slower pace than prior month.
Poland: Unemployment rate (Sept.): 5.8% as expected (prior: 5.8%)
- Unemployed marginally increased over the month but the ratio remained stable.
France: business confidence better oriented but before social unrests; Bank of Turkey cut its key rates.
US: Initial jobless claims (Oct.17): 194k vs 200k expected (prior: 200k revised from 199k)
- Continuing claims: 1708 k after 1703 k the prior week.
France: Business confidence (Oct.): 97 vs 96 expected (prior: 96)
- Business confidence has also regained in the manufacturing sector (index at 105 after 101 prior month).
- Sentiment has improved on total orders, mainly on foreign orders. Views were more positive on the own future production than in the prior month.
- With recent riots and political uncertainties, business confidence will reverse in the next survey.
Poland: Retail sales (Sept.): -3.8% m/m vs -2.9% expected (prior: -0.3%)
- Sales were sustained for autos and pharma over the month but declined in other sectors.
- Sales were up by 3.3% y/y after 3.8% y/y the prior month (in real terms).
Turkey: Consumer confidence (Oct.): 84.8 (prior: 91.9)
- Consumer confidence has declined over the month; lower sentiment was broad-based, driven by falling opinions on financial situation and economic outlook.
Turkey: The bank has cut its key rates (one-week repo) from 37% to 36% as expected.
- The bank cut key rates on slower trend in core inflation and weakening domestic demand; upside risks remain in place due to energy and conflict in the Middle East.
UK inflation on the rise
Switzerland: M3 (Sept.): 3.9% y/y (prior: 3.6% revised from 3.5%)
- M1 was up by 6.3% y/y after 6.4% y/y the prior month; M2 was up by 4% y/y (4.1% y/y prior month); time deposits have stabilized after several months of sharp decline.
UK: CPI (Sept.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected (prior: 0.5%)
- Energy prices were up by 3.5% m/m after 3.8% m/m the prior month due to rises in fuel and electricity costs. Goods prices were up by 1.2% m/m (1.1% m/m prior month) due rises in clothes; services stayed flat over the month as transport costs declined but recreation prices were on the rise. Yearly trend in services has accelerated to 3.7% y/y after 3.4% y/y prior month.
- Yearly trend has rebounded from 3.1% y/y to 3.5% y/y (3.4% y/y expected) and core inflation from 2.6% y/y to 2.8% y/y (as expected).
- The rebound in inflation was expected, and upside risks remain in the pipeline, paving way to the first hike from the BoE in its next meeting in Dec.
UK: PPI Input prices (Sept.): 1.5% m/m vs 1.4% expected (prior: 0.5% revised from 0.3%)
- Prices of materials have accelerated over the month (1.5% m/m), while prices of manufacturing goods were moderate and energy prices slightly down.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 6.7% y/y prior month to 8.3% y/y.
UK: PPI Output prices (Sept.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.6% expected (prior: 0.7%)
- The monthly rebound in prices was mainly driven by energy prices.
- The yearly trend has accelerated from 3.8% y/y to 4.6% y/y.
Turkey: PMI Manufacturing (Oct.): 101.1 (prior: 102.5)
- Business confidence has declined somewhat over the month.
Depressed US data on housing; weakening expectations in Germany
US: Housing starts (Sept.): 1221k vs 1305k expected (prior: 1288k revised from 1275k)
- Housing starts have declined over the month for both single-family houses and multi-family houses.
- Building permits have decreased from 1403 k the prior month to 1400 k; in permits, multi-family houses have slightly increased over the month.
US: Pending home sales (Sept.): -7.3% m/m vs -0.5% expected (prior: 0.3%)
- Sales have contracted more than expected over the month. All the 4 districts have shown a sharp fall after some stabilization the prior month.
Germany: PPI (Sept.): 1.9% m/m vs 1.6% expected (prior: 1.1%)
- Energy prices were up by 5.8% m/m after 3.2% m/m prior month; prices for basic, capital and consumer goods remained in a 0.1%-0.2% m/m range.
- Yearly trend has accelerated from 4.6%b y/y to 6.7% y/y.
Germany: Zew (Oct.): 28.1 vs 30 expected (prior: 34.7)
- Expectations have decreased over the month; sentiment on current situation has improved (index at -35.9 from -47.1 prior month).
- Opinions were fragmented across sectors: views have deteriorated for finance, autos, retail and construction sectors. On the other hand, views have regained for electronics and IT sectors and were less negative for steel.
- Opinions have decreased but remain positive for machines, chemicals and services.
UK: Unemployment rate (ILO) (Aug.): 4.7% vs 4.9% expected (prior: 4.9%)
- 3-M employment has increased by 102 k after 66 k the prior period.
- Claimant count remained stable at 4.4%, but numbers increased in Sept.; jobless claims increased from 7 k the month prior to 30.3 K.
- Data from labor was better oriented, pointing to some stabilization in unemployment.
UK: Average earnings incl. Bonus (Aug.): 3.7% y/y vs 3.8% expected (prior: 3.9%)
- Wage growth has accelerated for manufacturing sector, from 2.5% y/y to 2.6% y/y and in the construction sector.
- Growth has slowed down further for services and retail-hotels over the month.
Switzerland: Trade balance (Sept.): 1.35 Bn CHF (prior: 5.37Bn)
- Real exports were down by 0.1% m/m after -9.7% m/m prior month; real imports were up by 7% m/m after -3.6% m/m prior month.
Poland: Industrial production (Sept.): 17% m/m vs 15% expected (prior: -7.8% revised from -7.5%)
- Production has rebounded in all sectors after prior month’s correction; the rebound was driven by manufacturing (18.5% m/m) and electricity gas (6.9% m/m).
US: declining confidence in the housing sector
US: NAHB housing market index (Oct.): 29 vs 31 expected (prior: 32)
- Sentiment in housing has sharply declined and the index was back to its lowest levels seen in 2020 and 2012.
- Opinions on current sales, future sales and prospects have declined from the prior month.
- Rising long-term yields, rising construction costs and weakening consumer confidence have weighed down on thew outlook of the housing sector.