Tägliche Makro-Analyse

Norway: CPI (Oct.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.4%)

• Inflation remained on a sustained monthly trend; prices have reaccelerated over the month on food, clothes, households’ goods and communication; core inflation was up by 0.6% m/m after 0.2% m/m prior month.
• Yearly trend has declined from 3.6% y/y prior month to 3.3% y/y on headline inflation; core inflation has accelerated from 3.0% to 3.4% y/y.

Sweden: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.9% m/m (prior: 1.5% revised from 0.9%)

• Activity in industry was up by 3.8% m/m after 5.5% the prior month; in services, activity has contracted by 0.6% m/m after 0.6% m/m prior month. Construction was up by 2% m/m after 5.2% m/m prior month.
• Separately, orders for industry have declined by 2.6% m/m in Oct. after 7% m/m the prior month.

Sweden: Retail sales (Sept.): 0.3% m/m (prior: 0.8% revised from 0.4%)

• Consumer spending is larger than retail sales and confirmed the positive current trend.

Turkey: Industrial production (Sept.): -2.2% m/m (prior: 0.6% revised from 0.4%)

• All sectors have contacted over the month except mining. Manufacturing production was down by 2.3% m/m after +0.8% m/m the prior month.

US: Consumer confidence (Michigan) (Nov.): 50.3 vs 53 expected (prior: 53.6)

• Consumer confidence has dramatically fallen over the month in preliminary data.
• Opinions on current situation and expectations have both fallen over the month and expectations index was back to its lows seen this year.
• Opinions have decreased on personal financial situation and concerns have increased about unemployment; sentiment has decreased about future activity and future purchases (cars and houses).
• Inflation expectations have increased at 12M from 4.6% to 4.7%, but the 5-10y expectations have decreased from 3.9% the prior month to 3.6%y/y.

Germany: Trade Balance (Sept.): 15.3bn EUR vs 16.7bn expected (prior: 16.9bn revised from 17.2bn)

• Trade surplus has decreased due to accelerating imports.
• Exports were up by 1.4% m/m (-0.8% m/m prior month), but imports have rebounded by 3.1% m/m (-1.4% m/m prior month).

Norway: Industrial production (Sept.): 3.4% m/m (prior: 1.3%)

• Manufacturing production was down by 1.7% m/m (0.7% m/m prior month). Except machinery and electricity sectors, all other major sectors have seen a contraction in activity over the month.

Switzerland: Seco Consumer confidence (Oct.): -36.9 vs -35 expected (prior: -36.5)

• Consumer sentiment has decreased from the prior month; opinions were slightly less negative about the economic outlook but have deteriorated about financial outlook and on the willingness to buy major items.

Eurozone: Retail sales (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1% revised from 0.1%)

• Sales have contracted further, and prior month data were revised lower.
• Food sales turned flat over the month (0.4% m/m prior month) while non-food, auto fuel and special stores sales remained in modest contraction.
• Yearly trend remained positive (1.0% y/y), but it has weakened over the past quarters.

UK: BoE left key rates unchanged at 4.0%.

• The committee was highly divided with 4 votes in favor of a cut and 5 (including Governor Bailey) for no change.
• Risks on the outlook were more balanced, but the Committee preferred to wait for more data and probably the future decisions about the fiscal consolidation before decreasing rates further.
• Debate will continue about risks attached to future trend in inflation and labor and final decisions in Dec. meeting will depend on economic situation at year end.

Switzerland: Unemployment rate (sa) (Oct.): 3% as expected (prior: 3%)

• Ratio remained stable but unemployed has slightly increased over the month.

Sweden: CPI (Oct.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: 0.1%)

• Flash estimates pointed to sustained monthly rise and resilient inflation trend.
• Yearly trend remained stable at 3.1% y/y over the month, but core inflation has accelerated from 2.7% y/y prior month to 2.8% y/y.

Germany: Industrial production (Sept.): 1.3% m/m vs 3.0% expected (prior: -3.7% revised from -4.3%)

• Industrial production has rebounded over the month, but less than expected by consensus.
• The rebound was driven by manufacturing: chemical, computer and IT and auto sectors were responsible for the positive reversal from the prior month.
• Activity was also strong in energy but weakened for construction over the month.

Spain: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.4% m/m vs 0.2% expected (prior: -0.1%)

• Industrial activity has rebounded thanks to consumer goods and intermediate goods sectors over the month.

US: ADP Employment change (Oct.): 42k vs 30k expected (prior: -29k revised from -32k)

• Job creations have rebounded after a large fall the prior month; nevertheless, the picture is contrasted by sector.
• Jobs have contracted further in small firms (-10 k after -40 k prior month) and in medium-sized firms (-21 k after -20 k). Creations were higher in large firms, up by 73 k after 33 k the prior month.
• By sector, creations turned positive in all sectors, but services have strongly reversed (33 k after -28 k prior month); in good sector, creations were up by 9 k after -3 K.
• Wage growth remained sustained and stable up by 4.5% y/y (as seen prior month) and up by 6.7% for job-changers.
• The slower trend in place in labor and the more volatile data seen in recent months still justify the Fed to continue its pre-emptive cuts and its risk-management approach leading to a less restrictive policy.

US: Services PMI (Oct.): 54.8 vs 55.2 expected (prior: 54.2)

• Final data have increased from the prior month but at a slower pace than expected in initial data.
• Views were more constructive on new demand from the prior month and new business orders have increased as well as employment.
• A limited rise in prices was due to higher competition.

US: ISM Services (Oct.): 52.4 vs 50.8 expected (prior: 50)

• Sentiment in services has bottomed out; main components were on the rise over the month: new demand, employment and new export orders too; this latest component has strongly regained after 3 months of regular fall.
• Both ISM and PMI indices both delivered the same constructive message about services.

Eurozone: Services PMI (Oct.): 53 vs 52.6 expected (prior: 51.3)

• Sentiment in services has increased over the month more than expected; the move was supported by higher new business (index at 52.8 after 51.1), mainly driven by firmer domestic demand, and a large rebound in the German index (total index at 54.6 after 51.5 prior month; new business up to 53.4 after 49.1).
• Except France (index falling from 48.5 to 48), sentiment has improved in all other countries, the index being well above the 50 level across members.
• Employment was globally positively oriented while costs and prices remained on the rise.

France: Industrial production (Sept.): 0.8% m/m vs 0.1% expected (prior: -0.9% revised from -0.7%)

• Production was higher than expected in the manufacturing sector due to a large rebound in the transport (5.5% m/m after -4.3% m/m prior month) and auto sectors (2.7% m/after -1.9% m/m).
• Production remained highly volatile over past months and was only up by 1%y/y but up by 2.5% ytd.

Eurozone: PPI (Sept.): -0.1% m/m vs 0% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.3%)

• Prices have contracted further over the month due to falling prices of energy (-0.2% m/m), while prices of durable goods were up by 0.3% m/m.
• Yearly trend has increased from -0.6% y/y prior month to -0.2% y/y.

Germany: Factory orders (Sept.): 1.1% m/m vs 0.9% expected (prior: -0.4% revised from -0.8%)

• Orders have strongly rebounded over the month; the rebound was fuelled by a large rise in consumer goods and in intermediate goods too.
• Foreign orders have strongly rebounded (3.5% m/m), the first month since May, while domestic orders were down by 2.5% m/m.
• Orders for consumer goods have rebounded on both domestic and foreign orders.
• After rebuilding business confidence, first signs of a firmer activity in Germany.

UK: Services PMI (Oct.): 52.3 vs 51.1 expected (prior: 50.8)

• Business sentiment in services has strongly rebounded from the prior month.
• Index for new business has jumped to 53 from 50.4 prior month, but demand was mainly domestically driven while foreign demand remained weak.
• Costs remained high but final prices have just slowly increased over the month.

Brazil: PMI Services (Oct.): 47.7 (prior: 46.3)

• Sentiment has improved on new business and employment over the month.