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Equities advanced over the week on expectations of a first Fed rate cut on 17 September. Investors will scrutinise the Fed’s commentary for guidance on further potential cuts in October and December, moves which have largely been priced in by the markets. Policy meetings are also scheduled at the Bank of Canada (BoC), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Norges Bank, with the European Central Bank (ECB) having decided last week to leave its key rate unchanged at 2%.

Trade tensions with the United States, marked by 50% tariffs on Indian exports, have dampened sentiment. However, despite trade-related uncertainties, the growth outlook has been revised upwards, reflecting India’s strong long-term potential.

The Fed now appears to prioritise labour market stability over inflation risks, prompting us to reshape our investment strategy and overall asset allocation.

Without further pressure from the White House, the Fed is set to cut rates in September. Markets are debating whether the move will be 25 or 50 basis points after weak payroll figures, though we continue to expect only a 25-bp cut given the persistent inflationary pressures. The prospect of lower rates has buoyed equities, while attention this week will turn to US inflation data for evidence of tariff-related effects.

The start of autumn marks a turning point for the Federal Reserve; our rate outlook is shifting accordingly.

While President Trump is pressing for greater influence over the Fed in the pursuit of lower interest rates, US small caps continued to benefit from declining short-term US yields. Attention turned to Nvidia where strong Q2 earnings were eclipsed by underwhelming guidance and geopolitics impacting sales in China, sending the stock lower; even so, global technology equities outperformed. This week, the focus is set to shift to key US macro indicators, namely employment data.

With Fed chairman Jerome Powell opening the door to a rate cut in September, last week’s Jackson Hole symposium reinforced our forecast of two reductions this year. Global equities closed on a positive note, buoyed by the policy easing. However, the impact of tariffs must be fully assessed over the coming weeks.

The latest US inflation data confirm that price pressures are set to trend higher in the coming months. Nevertheless, rate cuts remain on the table given the slowdown in the labour market. As earnings season winds down after a solid set of results, market attention will shift to GDP developments and leading indicators, as well as to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole meeting on Friday.

Even the slightest regulatory decision or change in the international environment can affect the availability of financing, access to cash, or the perceived solvency of certain counterparties.