Michaël Lok

Despite rising geopolitical tensions, the underlying macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive of risky assets, with US technology, high-yield bonds, and gold continuing to anchor our allocations.

Global equities navigated a volatile week with limited damage. Although investors appear to be recalibrating risk exposures, the earnings season continues to underscore that EPS growth remains firmly driven by the technology sector.

The nomination of Kevin Warsh to serve as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve from May pushed the US dollar slightly higher, while gold and silver fell sharply in a deleveraging move that began in Asia.

As we head into 2026, emerging market (EM) bonds offer a solid opportunity, backed by improved fundamentals, positive technicals, and attractive all-in yields thanks to high baseline Treasury levels.

The mining rally in 2025 was led by precious and base metals, with gold miners up roughly 150% year-to-date, and prices for gold, silver, and copper all at record highs.

The reframing of the global geopolitical order, coupled with the race for supremacy in AI, forms the cornerstone of UBP’s portfolio construction approach.

Equity markets have seesawed in response to renewed geopolitical threats of a transatlantic trade war. A Greenland-related U-turn at the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos offered momentary relief.

Geopolitical tensions have intensified since the start of the year, spanning Venezuela, Greenland and Iran. At the same time, resource nationalism is on the rise, with major powers increasingly competing for control of strategically critical commodities. While this backdrop underpins gold, equity markets remained largely unscathed last week: small caps outperformed as earnings momentum broadens beyond the technology sector. This week, the Davos summit will shine more light on geopolitics, as concerns about Greenland are rising.