Michaël Lok

Dans un environnement marqué par le retour des tensions inflationnistes, la montée en puissance de l’IA et les recompositions géopolitiques, Michaël Lok estime que les marchés entrent dans un nouveau cycle.

Global equities hit new all-time highs, bonds rallied, and credit tightened, all on the hopes of a US–Iran ceasefire that remains, as yet, unsigned.

Markets were driven by shifting rate expectations and geopolitical developments, with US–Iran tensions adding volatility.

Global markets are entering a more balanced phase, where higher‑for‑longer rates, renewed energy pressures and sticky inflation are starting to test an artificial intelligence (AI)‑driven equity rally rather than abruptly reversing it.

In April, we anticipated an inflationary shock and a persistently cautious stance from central banks. That scenario has now materialised, reducing the prospects of any meaningful monetary easing.

Global equities extended their rally, powered by significant technology sector strength and a standout earnings season: S&P 500 Q1 earnings per share (EPS) growth reached +27.7%, double initial expectations. Emerging markets outperformed, led by Taiwan and South Korea.

Global equities advanced, driven by strong US technology earnings, while fixed income markets slipped as yields moved higher and central banks maintained a cautious stance.

Global markets are navigating a fragile balance between resilient growth, persistent geopolitical tensions and cautious central banks.

Investors reacted positively to a further de-escalation in the Middle East last week.