Ausblick 2025

US banking giants led the start of the earnings season, with their management expressing confidence about consumer resilience despite economic uncertainty and price pressures, with the latter being confirmed by more solid June US headline inflation data which came in at 2.6% year-on-year. This figure also supported further consolidation of the US dollar, although we expect this to be short-lived. More corporate results are due this week and are likely to play a key role in steering market sentiment.

How UBP is deepening its client-centric investment proposition in Asia?

The fresh salvo of tariffs paused the rally on global equity markets, leaving them broadly stable. Renewed tariff threats are reigniting concerns about global industrial supply chains, generating doubts about whether or not these pressures will erode corporate margins. The upcoming earnings season, which kicks off this week, may offer some hints of an answer.

The prospect of lower oil prices and possible Fed easing is benign for most G10 currencies.

With summer under way, aligning income generation with long-term growth helps reinforce portfolio resilience. A well-balanced allocation remains essential to navigating the coming months with confidence.

Investor sentiment in equities was buoyed last week by the passage of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’, signs of US economic resilience, and hopes of easing trade tensions.

US equities remain our preferred sector for the second half of the year, underpinned by stronger earnings growth expectations, a persistently weaker dollar, and significant exposure to the technology sector.

Risk appetite for equities holds firm, yet diversification is paramount.

The Israel–Iran ceasefire has eased concerns about energy prices, thus curbing inflation pressures and maintaining the prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this autumn. Investor sentiment remains strong, notably on the technology sector. However, the unpredictability of geopolitical developments, coupled with the looming 90-day tariff-pause deadline, leads us to maintain a broad diversification across asset classes and regions.

Despite the escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel, Iran and the US, equity and bond markets are – for now – not pricing in a worst-case scenario. In this context, a diversified allocation is warranted to contain tail risks and mitigate mounting volatility. Gold continues to serve as a hedge against extreme shocks.