Patrice Gautry

Markets have steadied after the appointment of the Lecornu II administration, yet lingering political and fiscal vulnerabilities persist.

The tariffs announcement by US President Trump last Wednesday evening exceeded most expectations, raising the average tariff on US imports from 2.5% to 24%, a level not seen since the 1930–40s.

At the start of the year, markets dismissed the prospect of US tariffs as mere threats rather than economic realities. But the new Trump administration’s first decisive moves – targeting China, Canada, Mexico, and soon, Europe – have shattered that assumption.

Our experts examine the tumultuous US election landscape and historical market behaviour during election years, as well as anticipate the fiscal challenges awaiting the next president amidst record-high US federal debt levels.

Confirmation that inflation is falling around the world could be the best news we get in 2024.

As UBP launches into Investment Outlook 2024, this year titled Back to the Future, our Co-CEO Asset Management & Head of Investment Management Michaël Lok, Group Chief Strategist Norman Villamin, and Chief Economist Patrice Gautry shine a spotlight on one of its key themes: looking back at events that have led China into a post-bubble restructuring process. Our expert recommends that during this phase China-focused investors look beyond the world’s second-largest economy at other dynamic markets, such as India.