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The currency expert at the Swiss private bank Union Bancaire Privée expects the dollar to weaken further, takes a dim view of negative interest rates, and is taking advantage of low market volatility.

In September, gold rose to new all-time highs, approaching USD 3,700 per oz. The upward move reflected several factors.

The prospect of continued Fed rate cuts will weigh on the US dollar

The prospect of lower oil prices and possible Fed easing is benign for most G10 currencies.

Peter Kinsella, UBP’s Global Head of FX and Commodity Strategy, discussed the outlook for the USD with Andreas Koenig, Amundi’s Head of Currency Management.

The US dollar has declined by more than 10% since President Trump took office, driven by policy uncertainty, lower growth expectations, and rising inflation concerns.

Since early November 2024, the gold price has risen from USD 2,600 to highs of above USD 3,500 per ounce. The precious metal received additional support in early February when investors realised that Donald Trump was serious about his tariff programme.

Les observateurs s'attendaient à une hausse du dollar. Pour autant, ils n'avaient pas anticipé les décisions imprévisibles de la nouvelle administration américaine concernant les droits de douane.

L'argent devrait enregistrer une hausse significative dans les semaines et mois à venir, sous l’effet d'importants mouvements de stocks à l'échelle mondiale, et grâce à un profil de valorisation toujours plus attrayant.

Gold can continue to rise above levels of USD 3,000 per oz this year, as supported by several factors.

In our latest Forex Focus podcast, UBP’s Global Head of FX Strategy Peter Kinsella interviews Saeed Amen of Turnleaf Analytics on the evolution of market research with artificial intelligence.

In this podcast our Global Head of Forex Strategy Peter Kinsella sheds some light on the mechanisms behind gold’s spectacular rise.