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Following the announcement of a two-week US–Iran ceasefire on Tuesday, 7 April, risk assets were supported by the perception that the worst may have been avoided.

The external asset manager (EAM) segment constitutes a significant part of Union Bancaire Privée’s (UBP) business, accounting for around CHF 23 billion of the Bank’s total assets under management as at the end of 2025. We spoke with Sérène El Masri, CEO of UBP Monaco.

Headlines about a potential ceasefire in the Middle East have started to appear, though visibility on the geopolitical outcome remains limited.

The recent escalation in the Middle East has materially changed the tone of markets and prompted us to revise our base case scenario, notably on energy.

Back in January, the dominant narrative in private credit was that negative headlines pointed to isolated events and a normalisation of flows, not systemic credit stress. Today, the picture is evolving.

As the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, recent developments are pointing to a clear shift from an initial oil disruption towards a broadening supply shock.