Carlos Casanova

Die gemeinsame Yen-Intervention der USA und Japans – die erste koordinierte Währungsmaßnahme der beiden Länder seit 15 Jahren – zeigt, wie ernst die politischen Entscheidungsträger die Schwäche des Yen mittlerweile nehmen. Zwar waren die unmittelbaren Auswirkungen beträchtlich, doch hängt die mittel- bis langfristige Wirksamkeit von den Fundamentaldaten ab, vor allem von der großen Zinsdifferenz zwischen den USA und Japan, die Carry-Trades attraktiv hält und den Yen anfällig macht, sofern die Bank of Japan (BoJ) die Zinsen nicht weiter anhebt oder die US-Notenbank die Zinsen senkt. Was sind die wichtigsten Hürden, die die BoJ überwinden muss, um die Währungsstabilität zu stützen, ohne das Wachstum zu untergraben?

China’s fifteenth five-year plan (2026–2030), to be unveiled by the National People’s Congress in March, is expected to reshape how the People’s Bank of China manages the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate.

China is positioning itself to become a global leader in technological innovation.

Trade tensions with the United States, marked by 50% tariffs on Indian exports, have dampened sentiment. However, despite trade-related uncertainties, the growth outlook has been revised upwards, reflecting India’s strong long-term potential.

On 12 May, the United States (US) and China established a temporary ‘trade consultation mechanism’, reducing tariffs by 115% for 90 days. While this may ease tensions, high tariffs are still expected to exert upside pressure on US prices, and trade volatility could drag on economic growth in China.

The post-election fiscal tightening in 2024, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, has cast a shadow over India’s economy.

As part of UBP’s 2025 Investment Outlook, senior economist Carlos Casanova examines China’s recent efforts to address its structural challenges. Despite the country’s initiatives, UBP remains cautious about the prospects of the world’s second-largest economy, as they are likely to fall short of expectations.

The statements in late 2024 from China’s central bank and the country’s Politburo sparked hopes of a ‘whatever it takes’ moment, only to see these dashed, as policy actions have fallen short of expectations.