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Markets rallied on US–China trade deal progress and soft US inflation data, boosting risk assets and expectations of a Fed rate cut. Yields fell while credit spreads tightened. However, at the end of the week gains faded as Israel–Iran tensions flared up, but this lifted defence stocks. The US dollar weakened, while gold and oil rose on geopolitical tensions.

Our impact investing franchise keeps growing, and with it the team’s conviction and dedication. Through the case studies and data in their annual report they give us a glimpse of their eventful year.

The US dollar has declined by more than 10% since President Trump took office, driven by policy uncertainty, lower growth expectations, and rising inflation concerns.

The potential of US equities is being tested by the compression of the risk premium.

As we enter the second half of the year, the fading trade war rhetoric is paving the way for a renewed focus on diversified asset allocations.

For the younger generation, private banking is no longer necessarily as attractive a business sector as it was for their predecessors. Nonetheless, these institutions’ recruitment needs remain high, and attracting young talent is becoming an increasingly important issue for them. So how can private banks attract and retain the next generation?

On 12 May, the United States (US) and China established a temporary ‘trade consultation mechanism’, reducing tariffs by 115% for 90 days. While this may ease tensions, high tariffs are still expected to exert upside pressure on US prices, and trade volatility could drag on economic growth in China.

The world as we have known it for the past few decades now looks to have been fundamentally turned on its axis, as indeed have traditional portfolio-management models. In light of this new environment, in which crises – each of which is not necessarily related to the next – appear thick and fast, private banks have to have the right asset management tools to protect their clients’ assets.

Equity markets welcomed Trump’s 90-day tariff truce by rebounding swiftly. However, we are maintaining a wait-and-see stance during this pause, while hedging against potential US dollar weakness by increasing our exposure to gold.