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In September, gold rose to new all-time highs, approaching USD 3,700 per oz. The upward move reflected several factors.

The prospect of continued Fed rate cuts will weigh on the US dollar

The prospect of lower oil prices and possible Fed easing is benign for most G10 currencies.

Peter Kinsella, UBP’s Global Head of FX and Commodity Strategy, discussed the outlook for the USD with Andreas Koenig, Amundi’s Head of Currency Management.

The US dollar has declined by more than 10% since President Trump took office, driven by policy uncertainty, lower growth expectations, and rising inflation concerns.

Since early November 2024, the gold price has risen from USD 2,600 to highs of above USD 3,500 per ounce. The precious metal received additional support in early February when investors realised that Donald Trump was serious about his tariff programme.

Observers and investors were expecting the US dollar to go up in value. This was without counting on the new US administration’s erratic policymaking and announcements on tariffs. Where is it going next and what other factors are affecting the greenback?

At UBP, we think that silver is set to rise substantially over the coming weeks and months, reflecting large global inventory shifts and an increasingly compelling valuation profile.

Gold can continue to rise above levels of USD 3,000 per oz this year, as supported by several factors.

In our latest Forex Focus podcast, UBP’s Global Head of FX Strategy Peter Kinsella interviews Saeed Amen of Turnleaf Analytics on the evolution of market research with artificial intelligence.

In this podcast our Global Head of Forex Strategy Peter Kinsella sheds some light on the mechanisms behind gold’s spectacular rise.

Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have risen by nearly 40%, outpacing every major developed market equity index – even the S&P 500.