The role of emerging markets is becoming much more strategic.

In an environment marked by the return of inflationary tensions, the rise of AI, and the reshaping of geopolitics, Michaël Lok believes that markets are entering a new cycle.

In this interview, he talks about the consequences of this regime change on asset allocations, the growing strategic role of emerging markets, and the profound developments under way in the tech industry.

Are investors currently underestimating the macroeconomic risks associated with energy prices and persistent inflation?

Yes, probably. Our base scenario for 2026 was still largely based on a continuation of the trend that began in 2023, i.e. gradual disinflation, falling interest rates and clear support from central banks for the economy and the markets. However, for a few months now, we have seen a quite marked shift in the inflation outlook, along with a less favourable oil price scenario.

At the moment, we believe the market is still underestimating the macroeconomic implications of this trend, particularly in Europe. The first half of the year is largely being characterised by a certain indifference to macroeconomic risks. Investors have remained focused on earnings and AI’s momentum, which may well be justified in certain sectors. However, the second half of the year could be more complicated, especially for Europe, which remains the most vulnerable region due to its energy dependence and its relative industrial fragility.

"The market is still underestimating the macroeconomic implications of this trend, particularly in Europe."

For several weeks now, we have already seen that European equities have virtually stagnated, whereas the US tech sector – buoyed by AI outlooks – continues to show very solid momentum. This divergence precisely reflects a certain underestimation of European macroeconomic risk.

You cite AI and energy security as two major drivers in the restructuring of investment portfolios. Beyond the obvious tech winners, which market segments are still being undervalued in this new investment cycle?

In technology alone, the inflows are now so great and the growth momentum is so fast that the very idea of valuations almost becomes secondary. Indeed, we argued very early on that there was no tech bubble in the traditional sense, exactly because the major players are now generating huge profits, which was not the case during the cycle in the 2000s.

That said, we believe there is still significant potential across the entire energy and utilities ecosystem. The development of AI entails enormous energy consumption, which automatically creates a structural need for infrastructure, energy production and energy security.

This is particularly true of what we refer to as ‘power demand’. To our mind, alternative energies, grid infrastructure and certain segments linked to the energy transition still offer significant value potential. These are themes we approach with a long-term horizon – three to five years – rather than as short-term tactical bets.

In a world marked by geopolitical fragmentation and the return of inflationary pressures, how should long-term investors rethink the role of emerging markets within a diversified portfolio?

We believe that emerging markets are gradually entering a new phase. For a long time now, they have largely been used as a quasi-mechanical diversification component within global portfolios; today, their role is becoming much more strategic.

"We believe that emerging markets are gradually entering a new phase."

The rise of AI, new energy infrastructure, and demand for natural resources is profoundly changing the role of certain emerging markets within the global value chain. Investors must therefore look beyond the major traditional markets and diversify their exposure further.

We have therefore strengthened certain positions in Asia, particularly in Taiwan and South Korea, which now play a central role in semiconductors, technology infrastructure, and AI-adjacent production chains. As far as China is concerned, we’re more constructive than we were a few years ago, even though visibility remains limited. After a very cautious post-Covid-19 period, we have gradually re-entered the market via Chinese tech, and subsequently via more domestic-focused sectors. As for India, it remains a strong structural theme, although we have slightly reduced our positions to rebalance the overall emerging market allocation.

Overall, we now view emerging markets as direct beneficiaries of this new long-term cycle, which combines technology, energy and geopolitical realignment.

With gold still one of your key strategic allocations, do you think we are entering a more serious transition phase, marked by a global financial system in which the dollar is less dominant?

The de-dollarisation discussion has come up time and again over the past few years, and indeed particularly in the current geopolitical context, but in reality, there is still no credible alternative to the dollar as the global reserve currency.

That being said, we believe that dollar risk must now be managed more carefully within portfolios. With this in mind, gold and the Swiss franc are two highly effective hedging instruments against a structural weakening of the dollar over the long term.

We are talking here about secular trends. The appreciation of the Swiss franc is a trend that has been observable for over twenty years, and gold is travelling in a fairly similar direction. Although the recent rise in interest rates has temporarily stabilised gold, we remain structurally very positive on the yellow metal for the next few years; we believe that this underlying trend will continue.

In an environment that is increasingly being shaped by industrial policy, energy sovereignty and the tech race, what major changes have you made to your long-term strategic allocation?

The main change in recent years has been the integration of a truly tactical layer to complement the traditional strategic allocation. We are maintaining a long-term, diversified approach built on solid fundamentals, but we have developed tools that enable us to respond much more quickly to external shocks.

"The main change in recent years has been the integration of a truly tactical layer to complement the traditional strategic allocation."

In real terms, we have significantly strengthened our ability to use tactical overlays and derivatives to mitigate certain market risks. This enables us to reduce portfolio exposure on an ad hoc basis when there isn’t enough visibility or when a major geopolitical or macroeconomic shock occurs.

The aim is obviously not to overreact or to ‘trade’ constantly, but to have the latitude to act extremely swiftly when necessary. Today, we have virtually eliminated all the traditional thinking in asset allocation; we no longer operate under a static 60/40 portfolio approach where you simply wait for markets to level out.

At the same time, we continue to incorporate alternative strategies and hedge funds that can deliver a range of return profiles and enhance the overall diversification of portfolios.

In the consumer tech sector, what new dynamics will Apple’s new CEO have to deal with?

For a long time now, we believed that the major technological balance of power had stabilised. Apple dominated its ecosystem, social media had found its leaders, and the major platforms seemed firmly established, but generative AI is completely changing the game.

Today, we think that we have entered a new secular cycle of twenty to thirty years, with a major reshuffling of the deck. However, this time, unlike the internet cycle of the 2000s, the major players already have colossal revenues and investment capabilities.

For Apple, the issue is therefore essentially one of its business model: the company remains extremely powerful, but it no longer appears to be the main driving force behind the major technological breakthroughs associated with AI, marking a significant shift from the past twenty years.

In contrast, some players such as Microsoft have gained a very clear lead in these new applications. Above all, the sector is evolving at an extremely rapid pace. Every three to six months, new models or new players are emerging. Today, everyone is talking about Anthropic and Claude, whereas these names were virtually absent from discussions just a few months ago.

The challenge for Apple will therefore be to remain at the heart of an environment in which value is gradually shifting from hardware towards models, data and software orchestration capabilities.

The opinions expressed herein are correct as at 28 May 2026 and are subject to change without notice. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding any particular fund, strategy or security. Past performance is not a guide to current or future results. Any forecast, projection or target, where provided, is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way.