Carlos Casanova

L’intervento congiunto su yen da parte di Stati Uniti e Giappone – la prima azione coordinata in materia valutaria tra i due paesi negli ultimi 15 anni – dimostra quanto seriamente i responsabili politici considerino ora la debolezza dello yen. Sebbene l’impatto immediato sia stato sostanziale, l’efficacia nel medio-lungo termine dipende dai fondamentali e, soprattutto, dall’ampio divario tra i tassi di interesse statunitensi e giapponesi, che mantiene attraenti le operazioni di carry trade e rende lo yen vulnerabile, a meno che la Banca del Giappone (BoJ) non inasprisca ulteriormente i tassi o la Federal Reserve statunitense non proceda a tagli dei tassi. Quali sono gli ostacoli principali che la BoJ deve superare per sostenere la stabilità valutaria senza compromettere la crescita?

China’s fifteenth five-year plan (2026–2030), to be unveiled by the National People’s Congress in March, is expected to reshape how the People’s Bank of China manages the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate.

China is positioning itself to become a global leader in technological innovation.

Trade tensions with the United States, marked by 50% tariffs on Indian exports, have dampened sentiment. However, despite trade-related uncertainties, the growth outlook has been revised upwards, reflecting India’s strong long-term potential.

On 12 May, the United States (US) and China established a temporary ‘trade consultation mechanism’, reducing tariffs by 115% for 90 days. While this may ease tensions, high tariffs are still expected to exert upside pressure on US prices, and trade volatility could drag on economic growth in China.

The post-election fiscal tightening in 2024, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, has cast a shadow over India’s economy.

As part of UBP’s 2025 Investment Outlook, senior economist Carlos Casanova examines China’s recent efforts to address its structural challenges. Despite the country’s initiatives, UBP remains cautious about the prospects of the world’s second-largest economy, as they are likely to fall short of expectations.

The statements in late 2024 from China’s central bank and the country’s Politburo sparked hopes of a ‘whatever it takes’ moment, only to see these dashed, as policy actions have fallen short of expectations.