Notícias

On 12 May, the United States (US) and China established a temporary ‘trade consultation mechanism’, reducing tariffs by 115% for 90 days. While this may ease tensions, high tariffs are still expected to exert upside pressure on US prices, and trade volatility could drag on economic growth in China.

Equity markets welcomed Trump’s 90-day tariff truce by rebounding swiftly. However, we are maintaining a wait-and-see stance during this pause, while hedging against potential US dollar weakness by increasing our exposure to gold.

Tactical risk management helped us ride out one of the sharpest market dips since 2020. Gold and cash remain reliable safe havens.

The tariffs announcement by US President Trump last Wednesday evening exceeded most expectations, raising the average tariff on US imports from 2.5% to 24%, a level not seen since the 1930–40s.

Supported by innovation and the government, technology is the only Chinese sector offering great visibility.

The US–Europe relations prevailing since World War II are shifting.

Trump’s activism on the US economy is creating fears of recession. To navigate short-term turbulence, we have tactically scaled back our exposure to macro-sensitive assets, such as US equities, including US midcaps, along with high-yield and emerging-market debt, while increasing our allocation to gold.

In New York as well as other major metro areas, once-bustling corporate offices are now quieter, leading companies to adjust to a new reality: remote working is no longer a temporary solution but rather a structural shift. Consequently, corporates are actively reducing their office space footprints, significantly increasing vacancies in the sector.

A new player has shaken the AI industry. DeepSeek, until recently a little-known Chinese start-up has launched DeepSeek-R1, a low-cost AI model challenging OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which is a stark reminder that the US is no longer the only competitor in the global AI race.

The post-election fiscal tightening in 2024, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, has cast a shadow over India’s economy.

The year started with volatility in rates, as the 10-year Treasury yield oscillates amid shifting market dynamics.

At the start of the year, markets dismissed the prospect of US tariffs as mere threats rather than economic realities. But the new Trump administration’s first decisive moves – targeting China, Canada, Mexico, and soon, Europe – have shattered that assumption.